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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2020

Chrono-Validation of Near-Real-Time Landslide Susceptibility Models via Plugin Statistical Simulations

The idea behind any validation scheme in landslide susceptibility studies is to test whether a model calibrated on a certain data can predict an unknown dataset of the same nature (landslide presences/absences and covariates). Almost the entirety of landslide susceptibility studies are validated by subsetting a single dataset into a training and test sets. This dataset usually corresponds either to event-specific or to historical inventories. Very rarely, a multi-temporal inventory is available and, in the few cases where this condition is met, the validation practices involve training a model on a specific landslide inventory, deriving a single predictive equation and validating it on a subsequent landslide inventory. This commonly leads landslide predictive studies, even those with a strong statistical rigor, to neglect the uncertainty estimation in their modeling scheme. In statistics, validation can also be performed via statistical simulations. This means that after fitting a given model, one can generate any number of predictive functions and test their predictive skills on any type and number of unknown datasets. In this work, we take a similar direction and we apply it to model and validate three separate co-seismic inventories, including an uncertainty estimation phase. We mapped these inventories within the same area in Indonesia, for three earthquakes occurred in 2012, 2017 and 2018. Specifically, we build three event-specific Bayesian Generalize Additive Models of the binomial family. From each model we then simulate 1000 predictive realizations over the remaining two inventories, by using a plug-in scheme where all the morphometric covariates are kept fixed and only the ground motion is replaced according to the prediction target. By doing so, we introduce a new analytical tool for near-real-time landslide predictive purposes, which is able to produce a probabilistic model which stands in between the definitions of susceptibility and hazard. In fact, our model is able to accurately estimate “where” and “when” - although not “how frequently” - landslide have occurred by featuring the multitemporal information of the trigger. In our findings, the simulations are quite similar to the fitted models; and the nine combinations we analyse produce excellent performance. This result confirms the assumption that “the past is the key to the future”, as we show that the relative contribution of each variable and their interactions in each probabilistic model remains practically the same across temporal replicates. This information is not trivial because it supports the routines implemented in global near-real-time applications.

Temporal validation↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Validation of Rendered Natural and Artificial Lighting Environments in Real Time Lunar South Pole Simulations

NASA’s Artemis campaign is making heavy use of simulation to help return humans to the lunar surface by the end of the decade. There are several aspects of the lunar surface and its environment which must be accurately modeled before these simulations can be relied upon to influence decisions being made under these programs. Digital Lunar Exploration Sites, a paper submitted to the 2022 IEEE Aerospace Conference, outlined the process used to generate the lunar surface in a digital environment. This paper will expand upon this topic and delve into the steps being taken by the NASA Exploration Systems Simulations (NExSyS) team at NASA’s Johnson Space Center (JSC) to properly verify and validate these simulations, with a focus on the visual aspects of the environment. Natural lighting validation relies in part on the wealth of data generated during the Apollo program. Many images taken by Apollo astronauts on the lunar surface have been replicated in the simulated environments to gain confidence in the accuracy of terrain and lighting models. However, because the environment the Artemis astronauts will experience at the Lunar South Pole (LSP) is dissimilar from the near-equatorial Apollo sites, other validation techniques must be applied. At the LSP, the sun crests only about three degrees above the horizon and when combined with the lack of a lunar atmosphere, lighting in this region is often very different than what a human would experience on Earth. Solar illumination, earthshine, human eye response, solar blooming, lunar regolith optical properties, and shadows cast by rocks and crater walls will play a significant role in an astronaut’s ability to safely conduct an Extra-Vehicular Activity (EVA) or perform a traverse with a lunar rover. Approaches for validation of these aspects of the rendered LSP environment are considered in this paper. In addition to natural lighting, approaches for the validation of artificial lighting models at the LSP are discussed. The JSC Lighting Lab has been studying the illumination profile of the Exploration Infomatics Subsystem (xINFO) lighting on the Exploration EVA Mobility Unit (xEMU). How these lights interact with the solar illumination and the shadows being cast on the lunar surface is of particular interest, so the validity of models representing these lights in a human-in-the-loop virtual reality environment becomes very important. This paper also touches on some of the simulation performance considerations when a Human in the Loop (HITL) is present, which drives the need for real time rendering of the environment. Natural and artificial lighting will play a crucial role to decisions being made when planning and executing missions at the Lunar South Pole (LSP) and it is vitally important to understand the LSP environment before we return.

Lunar↗
NASA NTRS2023

Approaches for Validation of Lighting Environments in Realtime Lunar South Pole Simulations

NASA’s Artemis campaign is making heavy use of simulation to help return humans to the lunar surface by the end of the decade. There are several aspects of the lunar surface and its environment which must be accurately modeled before these simulations can be relied upon to influence decisions being made under these programs. Digital Lunar Exploration Sites, a paper submitted to the 2022 IEEE Aerospace Conference, outlined the process used to generate the lunar surface in a digital environment. This paper will expand upon this topic and delve into the steps being taken by the NASA Exploration Systems Simulations (NExSyS) team at NASA’s Johnson Space Center (JSC) to properly verify and validate these simulations, with a focus on the visual aspects of the environment. Natural lighting validation relies in part on the wealth of data generated during the Apollo program. Many images taken by Apollo astronauts on the lunar surface have been replicated in the simulated environments to gain confidence in the accuracy of terrain and lighting models. However, because the environment the Artemis astronauts will experience at the Lunar South Pole (LSP) is dissimilar from the near-equatorial Apollo sites, other validation techniques must be applied. At the LSP, the sun crests only about 1.5 degrees above the horizon and when combined with the lack of a lunar atmosphere, lighting in this region is often very different than what a human would experience on Earth. Solar illumination, earthshine, human eye response, solar blooming, lunar regolith optical properties, and shadows cast by rocks and crater walls will play a significant role in an astronaut’s ability to safely conduct an Extra-Vehicular Activity (EVA) or perform a traverse with a lunar rover. Approaches for validation of these aspects of the rendered LSP environment are considered in this paper. In addition to natural lighting, approaches for the validation of artificial lighting models at the LSP are discussed. The JSC Lighting Lab has been studying the illumination profile of the Exploration Informatics Subsystem (xINFO) lighting on the Exploration EVA Mobility Unit (xEMU). How these lights interact with the solar illumination and the shadows being cast on the lunar surface is of particular interest, so the validity of models representing these lights in a human-in-the-loop virtual reality environment becomes very important. This paper also touches on some of the simulation performance considerations when a Human in the Loop (HITL) is present, which drives the need for realtime rendering of the environment. Natural and artificial lighting will play a crucial role to decisions being made when planning and executing missions at the Lunar South Pole (LSP) and it is vitally important to understand the LSP environment before we return.

Lunar↗
DOE OSTI2018

OECD-NEA Expert Group on Multi-Physics Experimental Data, Benchmarks and Validation

High-fidelity, multi-physics modeling and simulation (M&S) tools are being developed and utilized for a variety of applications in nuclear science and technology and show great promise in their abilities to reproduce observed phenomena for many applications. Even with the increasing fidelity and sophistication of coupled multi-physics M&S tools, the underpinning models and data still need to be validated against experiments that may require a more complex array of validation data because of the great breadth of the time, energy and spatial domains of the physical phenomena that are being simulated. The Expert Group on Multi-Physics Experimental Data, Benchmarks and Validation (MPEBV) of the Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA) of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) was formed to address the challenges with the validation of such tools. The work of the MPEBV expert group is shared among three task forces to fulfill its mandate and specific exercises are being developed to demonstrate validation principles for common industrial challenges. This paper describes the overall mission of the group, the specific objectives of the task forces, the linkages among the task forces, and the development of a validation exercise that focuses on a specific reactor challenge problem.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2019

Validation of Numerical Models of the Offshore Wind Turbine from the Alpha Ventus Wind Farm Against Full-Scale Measurements Within OC5 Phase III: Preprint

The main objective of the Offshore Code Comparison Collaboration Continuation, with Correlation (OC5) project, is validation of aero-hydro-servo-elastic simulation tools for offshore wind turbines (OWTs) through comparison of simulated results to the response data of physical systems. Phase III of the OC5 project validates OWT models against the measurements recorded on Senvion 5M wind turbine supported by the OWEC Quattropod from the alpha ventus offshore wind farm. The following operating conditions of the wind turbine were chosen for the validation: (1) Idling below the cut-in wind speed; (2) Rotornacelle assembly (RNA) rotation maneuver below the cut-in wind speed; (3) Power production below and above the rated wind speed; and (4) Shut-down. A number of validation load cases were defined based on these operating conditions. The following measurements were used for validation: (1) Strains and accelerations recorded on the support structure; (2) Pitch, yaw, and azimuth angles, generator speed, and electrical power recorded from the RNA. Strains were not directly available from the majority of the OWT simulation tools. Therefore, strains were calculated based on out-of-plane bending moments, axial forces, and geometrical properties of the structural members. Also, a number of issues arose during the validation: (1) The need for a thorough quality check of sensor measurements; (2) The sensitivity of the turbine loads to the controller and airfoil properties, which were only approximated in the modeling approach; (3) The importance of estimating and applying an appropriate damping value for the structure; and (4) The importance of wind characteristics beyond turbulence on the loads. The simulation results and measurements were compared in terms of time series, discrete Fourier transforms (DFTs), power spectral densities (PSDs), probability density functions (PDFs) of strains and accelerometers. A good match was achieved between the measurements and models set up by OC5 Phase III participants.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Key Constructs for Reasonable Confidence in System Validation Programs

This paper presents four key constructs developed in preparing IEEE Std P2411TM, Human Factors Engineering Guide for the Validation of System Designs and Integrated Systems Operations at Nuclear Facilities for submission. These constructs reflect judgments that responsible parties make in order to bring validation to closure. Such judgments weigh competing concerns and cost-benefits for stakeholders. Improved processes and methods may support such judgments but cannot alone eliminate uncertainty. Stating and clarifying these constructs aims to reduce uncertainty in the validation process, to better prepare the implementers and reviewers of future validation programs, both in the nuclear industry and beyond. Reasonable Confidence – A proof standard, as used to reach conclusions in a legal case. Legal proof standards are bounded between “preponderance of evidence” and “beyond reasonable doubt”. Reasonable confidence is comparable to an intermediate legal proof standard of “clear and convincing evidence.” Representative Test Set – A collection of scenarios of sufficient variety to represent the anticipated range of operational conditions, events, evolutions, and activities for validating the system(s) under test. Dispositive vs. Diagnostic Criteria – Relevant performance criteria are placed in one of two categories. Dispositive criteria are assessed, without exception, to determine whether a validation test passes or fails overall. Diagnostic criteria are assessed, subject to justified exception, to evaluate the quality or degree of some particular aspect of performance. Repeatability – Consistency in achieving passing results is to be demonstrated for each scenario in the representative test set; thus, the minimum number of formal repetitions for each scenario is two.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Validation and Independent Uncertainty Analysis of the MIX-SOL-THERM-003 ICSBEP Benchmark

The International Criticality Safety Benchmark Evaluation Project (ICSBEP) was started in 1992 by the United States Department of Energy and later in 1995 became an international project with contributions from 22 countries. The project is now organized by the OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development) Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA). In its most recent iteration, the ICSBEP handbook contains over five thousand evaluations of critical, near-critical, and subcritical experiments conducted in facilities all around the world. These benchmarks serve as valuable information for criticality safety engineers who can use them to validate calculation techniques and establish minimum subcritical margins for operations with fissionable materials. The benchmarks in the handbook are categorized by their fissile material composition, material form (oxide, solution, or metal), and fission energy spectra. This is especially useful for those looking for benchmarks similar to a system they are working on to compare methods and identify trends. The ICSBEP Handbook Uncertainty Guide is document outlining recommended practices and methods for determining uncertainties in these benchmarks. Quantifying these uncertainties thoroughly is crucial as it allows a higher degree of confidence that data used from them is valid and relevant. The guide stresses the importance of a thorough and well documented uncertainty analysis when evaluating an experiment. All measured values of a system, whether they be dimensions or material compositions, have a certain amount of uncertainty associated with them and can be analyzed one by one to determine their effects on the system. Many evaluated benchmarks in the handbook present this in detail, however some do not, mostly earlier evaluations performed in the 1990’s and early 2000’s. Recently at Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), the Nuclear Criticality Safety Division (NCSD) of LANL has been validating MCNP6.2 ® input files of criticality benchmarks for use by Whisper, a criticality safety code developed at LANL. This effort is also part of the OECD NEA Working Party on International Nuclear Data Evaluation Co-operation (WPEC) Subgroup 45, also known as Validation of Nuclear Data Libraries (VaNDaL). The goal of VaNDaL is to compile a set of validated simulation inputs for use in validating nuclear data and simulation codes. As part of these efforts, one of the benchmarks reviewed was the MIX SOL-THERM-003 ICSBEP benchmark. This paper provides an independent uncertainty analysis of this benchmark experiment.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2015

Consideration for the application of artificial neural networks to criticality code validation - 14270

The artificial neural network (ANN) is a consistent example for non-parametric parameter estimation and regression, with powerful universal approximation properties, that is distribution independent. ANN application to criticality code validation centers on aligning mathematical relationships between code validation parameters and neural network prediction for those parameter values. Two specific goals are: (1) an appropriate ANN architecture to determine validation parameter values, and (2) bootstrapping individual ANNs as a 'Prediction Interval' (PI) technique to estimate the Calculation Margin and Upper Subcritical Limit. The individual ANN workflow is segregated into Training, Validation (network), and Testing Sets, where the network predictive properties and performance are expressed in the latter set. The Bootstrap ANN replicates a large set of individual ANNs (taken from the original data distribution) where (1-α/2)100% PI estimates can be determined. Results from the ANN method are compared to a variety of validation examples: a 'toy example' from ANSI/ANS-8.24, Appendix D, a variety of methods noted in a Nuclear Criticality Safety Division 2009 paper, and several validation campaigns for highly enriched uranium and plutonium systems. The ANN method is robust and can be applied to single or multivariate inputs. A trained ANN can provide both an average estimate (e.g., single value) and an estimate over a range of independent variable values where the kUSL can be formed in a regression relationship suitable for extrapolation. The input dependence has been tested, ranging from 15 to over 400 sample size distributions. An expanded Shapiro-Wilk test (for sample sizes up to 5000) was implemented to confirm that the ANN method is transparent to distribution function. The Principle Component Analysis method was applied as an input preprocessing step embedded within the ANN in order to reduce dimensionality and correlation for multivariable inputs. This can potentially aid in determining accurate margins over applying arbitrary margins. The automatic optimization of the Bootstrap ANN PI is left for future consideration. (authors)

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Connect microstructure evolution to property degradation with validated simulation

Reliable material performance is required for plasma-facing material (PFM) candidates. Previous research has shown that plasma and neutron radiation exposure induces microstructural changes in PFMs; changes in thermal and electrical conductivities and in material hardening and embrittlement were also observed after neutron irradiation. These material property changes will negatively impact the performance of the PFMs in a fusion reactor. Despite the well-known connection between material microstructure, properties, and performance, there is a need for validated modeling capabilities connecting PFM property degradation with microstructural evolution under fusion-relevant conditions. We are developing a simulation capability to couple plasma-induced microstructural evolution to material property degradation. Our approach relies on deliberate mapping between individual simulation models and experimental characterization for validation. The open-source Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE) software was used for this simulation capability development. A MOOSE phase-field model was coupled with the cluster dynamics code, Xolotl, to predict microstructural evolution. Microstructure characterization techniques, including scanning electron microscopy (SEM), transmission electron microscopy (TEM), and laser scanning confocal microscopy (LSCM) are used to validate these microstructural evolution simulations. Calculation of thermal and electrical conductivities with first principles simulations was performed for bulk material and for grain boundaries; these results are used within MOOSE models to calculate effective thermal and electrical conductivities as a function of grain characteristics. Thermoreflectance and four-probe techniques were employed to measure the thermal and electrical conductivities, respectively. A MOOSE crystal plasticity model was adapted to predict microstructure-sensitive deformation behavior, and X-ray diffraction (XRD) was used to collect bulk dislocation density data for validation. After individual simulation validation, these models are coupled to predict material property changes resulting from plasma exposure. We focused here on an experimental design to emphasize the separate effects of moderate thermal loads and plasma exposure using tungsten. Annealing of tungsten was performed under a protective environment for temperatures ranging from 500$^o$C to 1500$^o$C. The plasma exposure was completed in the Tritium Plasma Experiment at Idaho National Laboratory under a deuterium flux of 1e22 $\frac{D}{m^2s}$. This incremental approach is employed to build confidence in the modeling capability: separate-effects tests ensure that the models capture key mechanisms from single environmental conditions before predicting PFM property degradation under combined loads. We will show our early results from coupling these simulation models to predict PFM property changes from microstructural evolution. Comparisons of the simulation results with preliminary validation data will be discussed.

36 - MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Evaluating wind speed and power forecasts for wind energy applications using an open-source and systematic validation framework

Building on the verification and validation work developed under the Second Wind Forecast Improvement Project, this work exhibits the value of a consistent procedure to evaluate wind power forecasts. We established an open-source Python code base tailored for wind speed and wind power forecast validation, WE-Validate. The code base can evaluate model forecasts with observations in a coherent manner. To demonstrate the systematic validation framework of WE-Validate, we designed and hosted a forecast evaluation benchmark exercise. We invited forecast providers in industry and academia to participate and submit forecasts for two case studies. We then evaluated the submissions with WE-Validate. Our findings suggest that ensemble means have reasonable skills in time series forecasting, whereas they are often inferior to single ensemble members in wind ramp forecasting. Adopting a voting scheme in ramp forecasting that allows ensemble members to detect ramps independently leads to satisfactory skill scores. Throughout this document, we also emphasize the importance of using statistically robust and resistant metrics as well as equitable skill scores in forecast evaluation.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Development and validation of a mathematical model of heart rate response to fluid perturbation

Physiological closed-loop controlled (PCLC) medical devices monitor and automatically adjust the patient’s condition by using physiological variables as feedback, ideally with minimal human intervention to achieve the target levels set by a clinician. PCLC devices present a challenge when it comes to evaluating their performance, where conducting large clinical trials can be expensive. Virtual physiological patients simulated by validated mathematical models can be utilized to obtain preclinical evidence of safety and assess the performance of the PCLC medical device during normal and worst-case conditions that are unlikely to happen in a limited clinical trial. A physiological variable that plays a major role during fluid resuscitation is heart rate (HR). For in silico assessment of PCLC medical devices regarding fluid perturbation, there is currently no mathematical model of HR validated in terms of its predictive capability performance. This paper develops and validates a mathematical model of HR response using data collected from sheep subjects undergoing hemorrhage and fluid infusion. The model proved to be accurate in estimating the HR response to fluid perturbation, where averaged between 21 calibration datasets, the fitting performance showed a normalized root mean square error (NRMSE) of 7.41 ± 2.8%. The model was also evaluated in terms of model predictive capability performance via a leave-one-out procedure (21 subjects) and an independent validation dataset (6 subjects). Two different virtual cohort generation tools were used in each validation analysis. The generated envelope of virtual subjects robustly met the defined acceptance criteria, in which 95% of the testing datasets presented simulated HR patterns that were within a deviation of 50% from the observed data. In addition, out of 16000 and 18522 simulated subjects for the leave one-out and independent datasets, the model was able to generate at least one virtual subject that was close to the real subject within an error margin of 9.56 ± 3.15% and 11.1 ± 1.22% NRMSE, respectively. In conclusion, the model can generate valid virtual HR physiological responses to fluid perturbation and be incorporated into future non-clinical simulated testing setups for assessing PCLC devices intended for fluid resuscitation.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2015

High-resolution multi-band imaging for validation and characterization of small Kepler planets

High-resolution ground-based optical speckle and near-infrared adaptive optics images are taken to search for stars in close angular proximity to host stars of candidate planets identified by the NASA Kepler Mission. Neighboring stars are a potential source of false positive signals. These stars also blend into Kepler light curves, affecting estimated planet properties, and are important for an understanding of planets in multiple star systems. Deep images with high angular resolution help to validate candidate planets by excluding potential background eclipsing binaries as the source of the transit signals. A study of 18 Kepler Object of Interest stars hosting a total of 28 candidate and validated planets is presented. Validation levels are determined for 18 planets against the likelihood of a false positive from a background eclipsing binary. Most of these are validated at the 99% level or higher, including five newly validated planets in two systems: Kepler-430 and Kepler-431. The stellar properties of the candidate host stars are determined by supplementing existing literature values with new spectroscopic characterizations. Close neighbors of seven of these stars are examined using multi-wavelength photometry to determine their nature and influence on the candidate planet properties. Most of the close neighbors appear to be gravitationally bound secondaries, while a few are best explained as closely co-aligned field stars. Revised planet properties are derived for each candidate and validated planet, including cases where the close neighbors are the potential host stars.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2017

Applicability Analysis of Validation Evidence for Biomedical Computational Models

Computational modeling has the potential to revolutionize medicine the way it transformed engineering. However, despite decades of work, there has only been limited progress to successfully translate modeling research to patient care. One major difficulty which often occurs with biomedical computational models is an inability to perform validation in a setting that closely resembles how the model will be used. For example, for a biomedical model that makes in vivo clinically relevant predictions, direct validation of predictions may be impossible for ethical, technological, or financial reasons. Unavoidable limitations inherent to the validation process lead to challenges in evaluating the credibility of biomedical model predictions. Therefore, when evaluating biomedical models, it is critical to rigorously assess applicability, that is, the relevance of the computational model, and its validation evidence to the proposed context of use (COU). However, there are no well-established methods for assessing applicability. In this paper, we present a novel framework for performing applicability analysis and demonstrate its use with a medical device computational model. The framework provides a systematic, step-by-step method for breaking down the broad question of applicability into a series of focused questions, which may be addressed using supporting evidence and subject matter expertise. The framework can be used for model justification, model assessment, and validation planning. While motivated by biomedical models, it is relevant to a broad range of disciplines and underlying physics. Finally, the proposed applicability framework could help overcome some of the barriers inherent to validation of, and aid clinical implementation of, biomedical models.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2016

Power Plant Model Validation Tool

The PPMV is used to validate generator model using disturbance recordings. The PPMV tool contains a collection of power plant models and model validation studies, as well as disturbance recordings from a number of historic grid events. The user can import data from a new disturbance into the database, which converts PMU and SCADA data into GE PSLF format, and then run the tool to validate (or invalidate) the model for a specific power plant against its actual performance. The PNNL PPMV tool enables the automation of the process of power plant model validation using disturbance recordings. The tool uses PMU and SCADA measurements as input information. The tool automatically adjusts all required EPCL scripts and interacts with GE PSLF in the batch mode. The main tool features includes: The tool interacts with GE PSLF; The tool uses GE PSLF Play-In Function for generator model validation; Database of projects (model validation studies); Database of the historic events; Database of the power plant; The tool has advanced visualization capabilities; and the tool automatically generates reports.

Source record↗
DOE OSTI2016

Multiyear Plan for Validation of EnergyPlus Multi-Zone HVAC System Modeling using ORNL's Flexible Research Platform

This document describes the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) multiyear experimental plan for validation and uncertainty characterization of whole-building energy simulation for a multi-zone research facility using a traditional rooftop unit (RTU) as a baseline heating, ventilating, and air conditioning (HVAC) system. The project’s overarching objective is to increase the accuracy of energy simulation tools by enabling empirical validation of key inputs and algorithms. Doing so is required to inform the design of increasingly integrated building systems and to enable accountability for performance gaps between design and operation of a building. The project will produce documented data sets that can be used to validate key functionality in different energy simulation tools and to identify errors and inadequate assumptions in simulation engines so that developers can correct them. ASHRAE Standard 140, Method of Test for the Evaluation of Building Energy Analysis Computer Programs (ASHRAE 2004), currently consists primarily of tests to compare different simulation programs with one another. This project will generate sets of measured data to enable empirical validation, incorporate these test data sets in an extended version of Standard 140, and apply these tests to the Department of Energy’s (DOE) EnergyPlus software (EnergyPlus 2016) to initiate the correction of any significant deficiencies. The fitness-for-purpose of the key algorithms in EnergyPlus will be established and demonstrated, and vendors of other simulation programs will be able to demonstrate the validity of their products. The data set will be equally applicable to validation of other simulation engines as well.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2019

Thermal Transport and Fracture Behavior of Sintered Fuel Pellets: Experimental Validation of NEAMS Tool MARMOT

The project targets at experimental validation of NEAMS tool MARMOT for predicting thermal transport and fuel fracture. The key components of the project include: (1) sintering UO 2 samples with well-controlled microstructures (grain size, pore, fission bubble, porosity and pore distribution either in intra- or inter-granular pores); (2) thermal conductivity measurements of these wellcharacterized polycrystalline samples; (3) indentation testing of sintered UO 2 with various grain size, porosity and stoichiometry to obtain fracture and crack propagation mechanisms (inter or intragranular fracture); and (4) validation and uncertainty quantification of the MARMOT thermal transport and fracture models. The high quality experimental data will be used to validate the predictions of MARMOT for thermal transport and fracture, using average data and local microstructure information. In this work, UO 2 fuels with controlled microstructure (grain size, pore size/structure and fuel chemistry) were successfully prepared by high energy ball milling of the hyper-stoichiometric UO 2+x powders purchased commercially, and consolidated by spark plasma sintering. Dense nano-sized UO 2 fuel pellets with controlled stoichiometry were sintered by SPS. The effects of different SPS sintering parameters on the pore size and distribution were investigated, and the correlation among the SPS parameter – microstructure control – stoichiometry/defect structure was established. To further control the pore structure and fuel chemistry, systematic thermal annealing of the sintered fuels with the controlled pore structure was performed in a reduced. The controlled microstructure and fuel chemistry enable the investigation of the separate effects of pore structure and fuel chemistry on thermal transport behavior. The mechanical properties of the sintered UO 2 fuels were tested by nanoindentation and microindentation testing at different temperatures. The fracture behavior of the sintered fuels as functions of grain structure and temperature was investigated. Nanocrystalline UO 2 display higher hardness than microcrystalline counterpart, consistent with the Hall-Petch strengthening mechanism. Greater Young’s modulus and fracture toughness are also identified for the nanocrystalline UO 2 , and hardness and Young’s modulus decrease with temperature, suggesting better ductility of oxide fuels at greater temperature at small length scale. Hyper-stoichiometric UO 2 specimen displays higher hardness and fracture toughness than stoichiometric UO 2 , due to the impediment of the crack propagation by the oxygen interstitial atoms. These results are useful in understanding the mechanical properties of the high burn-up structure (HBS) formed in nuclear fuels during reactor operation, and also provide critical experimental data as the input for the development and validation of the MARMOT fracture model of nuclear fuels. The thermal properties of the sintered UO 2 fuel pellets with controlled grain structure, fuel chemistry and pore structures are measured by laser flash and the impact of the microstructure characteristics on the thermal transport properties is elucidated. Through a close collaboration with the MARMOT team at Idaho National Laboratory, the thermal properties of the sintered oxide fuel pellets with controlled microstructures are measured experimentally, and modeled using the developed MARMOT thermal transport models for a joint effort of demonstrating high spatial resolution measurements at the microstructural level on as-fabricated nuclear fuels and materials and obtain critical experimental data for model validation and properties predictions. In this work, we also conducted sensitivity analysis and uncertainty quantification (UQ) on a mesoscale simulation that has been applied to understand the effective thermal conductivity of UO 2 reactor fuel using the MARMOT tool. We also conduced UQ on mechanistic macroscale models that have been developed to predict the effective thermal conductivity. The most sensitive parameter is the thermal conductivity of bulk UO 2 for the thermal conductivity models. In the future, the predicted simulation distributions need to be compared to experimental data for validation of the models.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2019

Predictive LES Modeling and Validation of High-Pressure Turbulent Flames and Flashback in Hydrogen-enriched Gas Turbines

The overall objective of this project is to make advances in large-eddy simulation modeling of swirl-flame flashback at elevated pressure, where the reactants can be premixed or stratified, and composed of methane enriched with hydrogen. The modeling effort was conducted with a companion experimental validation effort that focused on high-speed measurements of flashback in a model swirl-flame combustor. The modeling effort focused on the development of manifold-based combustion model for flashback simulations. The main complexity in this configuration comes from the flames’ propagation through a stratified fuel-air mixture along with heat loss near the walls. For this purpose, a non-adiabatic flamelet model was developed and tested using canonical flow configurations. Further, extensive validation in premixed configurations is used to establish the model’s accuracy in capturing heat loss and flame propagation. Finally, the model was tested using the UT flame flashback experiment, and was shown to accurately capture the flame flashback process. The end products from this work are a) a full validated flameout-based approach for modeling flame flashback; b) a complete implementation of the model in the open source OpenFOAM framework, which has been made available to both industry and academia; c) an extensive suite of validation studies performed using the OpenFOAM solver. In addition, new techniques for flame modeling, subfilter modeling of scalars, and simulation of low Mach number flows were developed and tested. In the experimental validation effort, flashback was studied in a premixed and stratified swirl flame by using high-speed imaging diagnostics. Fuels tested included CH 4 enriched with H 2 , with H 2 enrichment up to 84% by volume. These flashback experiments are conducted at pressures ranging from 1 to 5 atm. A swirler-based fuel-injection system was used to create the fuel-air stratification in the radial direction. For the high-pressure measurements, an optically accessible elevated pressure chamber was used. The spatial distribution of the equivalence ratio under non-reacting conditions was characterized using planar laser-induced fluorescence with acetone as the fuel tracer. It was observed that fuel-air pockets were distributed across the mixing tube width, although in an average sense, the fuel-air mixture was radially stratified. The global behavior of upstream flame propagation was investigated for different levels of hydrogen-enrichment. For stratified hydrogen-rich flashback, the propagation path of the flame changed from the inner wall to outer wall, which was induced by the faster chemistry of stoichiometric mixtures that are frequently present near the outer wall. This behavior of hydrogen-rich flashback persists even at elevated pressures up to 5 atm, although the propagation of the flame occurs as a wide flame tongue as opposed to the acute-tipped flame structures present in the atmospheric cases. The end product of the experimental effort is greatly improved knowledge of flashback physics and a unique database that can be used for model validation.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2021

Validation of Computational Fluid Dynamics Simulations for Biological Performance Assessment in Hydropower units (Final Report)

The biological performance assessment (BioPA) toolset developed by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) estimates the relative biological performance of fish passage at a hydroelectric power turbine unit. The tool is based on the use of computational fluid dynamics (CFD) and fish biological response relationships. The recent release, BioPA-v3, is based on directly computed trajectory and collision of material Lagrangian particles using CFD simulation codes rather than the prior version that relies on Tecplot to compute streamtrace trajectories. Before modifying the toolset, a series of validation tests were performed at the various steps of modification in the toolset. Validation is a critical step of any numerical investigation that reflects the accuracy and reliability of the predicted results. It raises the confidence level of the user to use the modified version of the BioPA toolset. Several test cases were simulated and compared, where available, to observed data. The trajectory and collision of the small spherical and cylindrical particles in a water flume were compared to in-house experiments. The CFD predicted collision rate and flow field compared well with experimental observation for vane array and large cylinder as target bodies. Next, the CFD-predicted flow field and hydraulic performance of a laboratory-scale model of a Francis turbine was also successfully validated. Note that the trajectory of the particles is significantly affected by the flow field in such extreme conditions. In addition to the particle trajectories and flow field, the collision detection method employed in the CFD simulations was also successfully validated. The CFD predicted impact velocity, collision time, velocity, and trajectory of a sphere excellently matched with analytical value for a bouncing ball in the elastic collision. A similar approach was also tested and successfully validated for a collision of sphere with a 45° inclined plane. After successfully validating different cases, the BioPA toolset was modified to use direct output of the CFD prediction and the new version can be used in evaluating biological performance at hydroelectric turbines.

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