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Processing Aleatory and Epistemic Uncertainties in Experimental Data From Sparse Replicate Tests of Stochastic Systems for Real-Space Model Validation

This paper presents a practical methodology for propagating and processing uncertainties associated with random measurement and estimation errors (that vary from test-to-test) and systematic measurement and estimation errors (uncertain but similar from test-to-test) in inputs and outputs of replicate tests to characterize response variability of stochastically varying test units. Also treated are test condition control variability from test-to-test and sampling uncertainty due to limited numbers of replicate tests. These aleatory variabilities and epistemic uncertainties result in uncertainty on computed statistics of output response quantities. The methodology was developed in the context of processing experimental data for “real-space” (RS) model validation comparisons against model-predicted statistics and uncertainty thereof. The methodology is flexible and sufficient for many types of experimental and data uncertainty, offering the most extensive data uncertainty quantification (UQ) treatment of any model validation method the authors are aware of. It handles both interval and probabilistic uncertainty descriptions and can be performed with relatively little computational cost through use of simple and effective dimension- and order-adaptive polynomial response surfaces in a Monte Carlo (MC) uncertainty propagation approach. A key feature of the progressively upgraded response surfaces is that they enable estimation of propagation error contributed by the surrogate model. Sensitivity analysis of the relative contributions of the various uncertainty sources to the total uncertainty of statistical estimates is also presented. Finally, the methodologies are demonstrated on real experimental validation data involving all the mentioned sources and types of error and uncertainty in five replicate tests of pressure vessels heated and pressurized to failure. Simple spreadsheet procedures are used for all processing operations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Challenges and opportunities in verification and validation of low temperature plasma simulations and experiments

This paper describes the verification and validation (V&V) framework developed for the stochastic Particle-in-Cell, Direct Simulation Monte Carlo code Aleph. An ideal framework for V&V from the viewpoint of the authors is described where a physics problem is defined, and relevant physics models and parameters to the defined problem are assessed and captured in a Phenomena Identification and Ranking Table (PIRT). Furthermore, numerous V&V examples guided by the PIRT for a simple gas discharge are shown to demonstrate the V&V process applied to a real-world simulation tool with the overall goal to demonstrably increase the confidence in the results for the simulation tool and its predictive capability. Although many examples are provided here to demonstrate elements of the framework, the primary goal of this work is to introduce this framework and not to provide a fully complete implementation, which would be a much longer document. Comparisons and contrasts are made to more usual approaches to V&V, and techniques new to the low-temperature plasma community are introduced. Specific challenges relating to the sufficiency of available data (e.g., cross sections), the limits of ad hoc validation approaches, the additional difficulty of utilizing a stochastic simulation tool, and the extreme cost of formal validation are discussed.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

A Visual Analytic Platform for Interactive Validation of Human Mobility Simulations

Human mobility insights guide domain experts in an array of decisions, including critical infrastructure design, disaster response, epidemic modeling, national security, and policy making. Due to the inherent noise and privacy concerns in real-world individual-level mobility data, it is often preferred to leverage simulators that generate synthetic mobility data instead. However, it is critical to inspect and validate the output of such simulators to ensure the synthetic data is aligned with the characteristics of the population and the area of interest known to domain experts. While there exist many quantitative approaches for validating synthetic data, we argue it is also important to also validate such data qualitatively to capture aspects that are known to domain experts but difficult to quantify. In this work, we demonstrate a visual analytic platform that empowers domain experts to interact with their simulation outputs along spatial and temporal dimensions. By augmenting automated techniques and human skills, our visual analytic platform is a step towards interactive capabilities for model steering and quality control of mobility simulators.

Monadjemi, Shayan↗

Challenging Practices of Algebraic Battery Life Models through Statistical Validation and Model Identification via Machine-Learning

Various modeling techniques are used to predict the capacity fade of Li-ion batteries. Algebraic reduced-order models, which are inherently interpretable and computationally fast, are ideal for use in battery controllers, technoeconomic models, and multi-objective optimizations. For Li-ion batteries with graphite anodes, solid-electrolyte-interphase (SEI) growth on the graphite surface dominates fade. This fade is often modeled using physically informed equations, such as square-root of time for predicting solvent-diffusion limited SEI growth, and Arrhenius and Tafel-like equations predicting the temperature and state-of-charge rate dependencies. In some cases, completely empirical relationships are proposed. However, statistical validation is rarely conducted to evaluate model optimality, and only a handful of possible models are usually investigated. This article demonstrates a novel procedure for automatically identifying reduced-order degradation models from millions of algorithmically generated equations via bi-level optimization and symbolic regression. Identified models are statistically validated using cross-validation, sensitivity analysis, and uncertainty quantification via bootstrapping. On a LiFePO 4 /Graphite cell calendar aging data set, automatically identified models utilizing square-root, power law, stretched exponential, and sigmoidal functions result in greater accuracy and lower uncertainty than models identified by human experts, and demonstrate that previously known physical relationships can be empirically "rediscovered" using machine learning.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Sockeye Validation Support Using the SPHERE Facility

The engineering-scale heat pipe application Sockeye, being developed through the Nuclear En- ergy Advanced Modeling and Simulation program is concurrently undergoing code development and verification and validation activities. The Single Primary Heat Extraction and Removal Emu- lator (SPHERE) facility at Idaho National Laboratory has performed numerous sodium heat pipe experiments, one of which is modeled in this work to support Sockeye validation. Heat pipe data produced by the SPHERE facility was found to be very useful not only for Sockeye validation but also as a useful resource for model development. A Sockeye simulation performed using Sockeye’s conduction model modeled an experimental run at SPHERE and was found to be able to accurately reproduce the steady temperature distribution but revealed discrepancies in transient behavior after shutoff of the power. This effort also revealed a number of challenges of modeling an experimental setup such as SPHERE, for example, the importance of details in the setup such as possible gaps in insulation. Also, continuous collaboration between Sockeye developers and SPHERE experimentalists has been established, which allows future experiments to be refined in response to questions and challenges found by simulating earlier experiments.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Caribbean deepwater snappers: Application of the bomb radiocarbon age estimation validation in understanding aspects of ecology and life history

Reef fishes have been utilized as food fish throughout the U.S. Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico waters for centuries, with increasing fishing effort in recent decades. As a result, many species have experienced declines in landings, including deepwater snappers such as queen snapper Etelis oculatus and blackfin snapper Lutjanus buccanella . However, little to no peer-reviewed published research exists on basic life history parameters for either species. Confirming the accuracy of an age estimation method for a fish species is essential for ensuring sustainable fisheries management. This is because in the assessment of fisheries species population age-based parameters, including longevity, age at sexual maturity, growth rate, mortality, age-specific reproductive output, and lifetime reproductive output, are important in understanding overall life history strategies of managed stocks. The past stock assessment on U.S. Caribbean queen snapper utilized an estimated longevity of 8 y, derived from length frequencies for fish from St. Lucia. Blackfin snapper has an estimated longevity of 27 y based on a relatively small study from offshore waters of the southeastern U.S. The focus of our investigation was to estimate maximum longevity of two data-poor species in the U.S. Caribbean. The accuracy of ageing methods was tested via bomb radiocarbon age estimation validation and effects of depth on Δ 14 C in otolith cores and eye lens core values were examined. Results from our work indicate a maximum validated age of 45 y for queen snapper, and 43 y for blackfin snapper. Our findings indicate queen snapper and blackfin snapper are long-lived (> 40 y). The resulting Δ 14 C comparison between eye lens cores and otolith cores has important implications for the study of age validation, specifically when deepwater species are involved.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Validation of Fault Displacements from Dynamic Rupture Simulations against the Observations from the 1992 Landers Earthquake

ABSTRACT Coseismic fault displacements in large earthquakes have caused significant damage to structures and lifelines on and near fault lines. Coseismic displacements represent a real threat, especially to distributed infrastructure systems. For infrastructure systems that can not avoid active faults, engineering displacement demands are defined using probabilistic fault-displacement hazard analyses (PFDHA). However, PFDHA models are sparse and poorly constrained partly due to the scarcity of detailed fault-displacement observations. Advancements in dynamic rupture simulation methods make them an attractive approach to address this important issue. Because fault displacements can be simulated for various geologic conditions as constrained by current knowledge about earthquake processes, they can be used to supplement the observation datasets. In addition to providing on-fault displacements, when used with appropriate constitutive models for the bulk medium, they can capture off-fault distributed inelastic deformations as well. For viable extrapolation, simulations must first be validated against data. In this article, we summarize the calibration and validation of the dynamic rupture model against the observations of the well-documented 1992 Landers earthquake. We defined a preferred model that reproduces several first-order fault-displacement metrics such as the on-fault partition of the total displacement, the mean fault-zone width, and the location of the peak displacement. Simulated ground motions consistent with the observations ensure that all physics important to modeling have been properly parameterized. For the extrapolation, we generated a suite of dynamic rupture models to quantify expected fault-displacement metrics, their intercorrelations, and magnitude dependencies, which are in part supported by the Landers and other recent earthquakes. Our validation and extrapolation exercise paves the way for using dynamic rupture modeling to quantitatively address fault-displacement hazard on a broader scale. The results are promising and are expected to be useful to inform PFDHA model development.

Geochemistry & Geophysics↗

Field Validation of Thermoelectric Generation System at Holcim Cement Plant in Alpena, Michigan

Executive Summary Project Background The Industrial Technology Validation (ITV) program aims to identify and demonstrate the performance of new, emerging, and underutilized energy-saving technologies in the industrial sector to help inform decisions to help accelerate their commercialization and deployment, as well as to help make industries more competitive. This ITV demonstration evaluated a thermoelectric generation (TEG) technology at a cement plant, aiming to reduce energy demand in the cement industry. A median cement plant consumes 5.73 million British thermal units per ton of clinker production (resulting in 0.838 metric tons of carbon dioxide [CO₂] emissions per ton of clinker) (Boyd and Zhang 2011, EPA 2021), equivalent to approximately 6.9 trillion British thermal units (TBtu) per year in energy consumption at a cement plant producing 3,300 tons of clinker per day.¹ Collaborating with Holcim, Advanced Thermovoltaic Systems (ATS) developed and deployed a pilot-scale thermoelectric power system to efficiently capture and convert waste heat to electricity. The system leverages the Seebeck effect to convert temperature differences on two sides of semiconductor cartridges into electrical power (ScienceDirect, n.d.). This generation is realized with minimal moving parts compared to existing waste-heat-to-generation solutions and allows capture from heat sources with temperatures as low as 150°C. This project aimed to validate a scalable solution applicable for capturing medium-temperature waste heat, including ambient losses from other high-temperature processes, and high-temperature sources less suitable for other waste-heat-to-power solutions. By recovering this otherwise wasted heat, this project intends to validate improvements to overall process efficiency through reduction in purchased electricity, thereby reducing operational costs while enhancing resiliency and competitiveness. Description and Scope This study evaluated the performance of a TEG system from ATS as a solution to convert waste heat into useful power at a Holcim cement plant in Alpena, Michigan. This plant is a fully integrated cement plant that has been operating since 1907. The facility operates continuously (24/7/365) with approximately 250 employees and five long dry kilns, yielding a total production capacity of 7,852 tons of cement per day (EPA 2023). Currently, the Alpena plant uses waste heat boilers to convert waste heat from the exhaust of each kiln into steam, which drives steam turbine generators. The ATS TEG is being evaluated for its potential to supplement the steam turbines by capturing the remaining lower grade heat. This technology is also being considered for other Holcim plants where steam turbines are not a viable option. ATS installed a pilot-scale TEG unit with an array of 582 individual thermoelectric semiconductor cartridges, of which 573 were operational. The cartridges are sandwiched between 48 hot plates and 49 cold plates. Each cartridge is designed to generate 20 watts (W) of gross power at a hot-side temperature of 240°C and cold-side temperature of 20°C. As such, the total gross generation capacity of the installed system is 11.5 kilowatts (kW) at design conditions. The system configuration for the evaluation was designed to prioritize convenience of installation and minimize disruption to production at the site, while ensuring that the heat required can be obtained for evaluating the TEG system at various operational conditions. To accomplish this, a portion of the steam supplied to Alpena’s steam turbine generation system was diverted to be used as the heat source for the TEG system, while water was supplied to the cold side of the system from nearby Lake Huron. This configuration was designed for the evaluation of the pilot-scale system to assess the performance at different conditions. A commercial-scale system will likely vary from the pilot system depending on typical configurations, including both scale and application. Future commercial applications of the ATS system would involve integrating the system into the exhaust from kiln preheaters, clinker coolers, or radiant heat capture from kiln shells for the heat source. For the cold source, a range of cooling solutions can be considered, including a mechanical cooling system, depending on the location and the application. To increase the generation capacity for commercial applications, the technology provider is working toward developing a commercial-scale TEG system, which would combine multiple TEG units (each similar in design to the pilot system) together. The scope of this evaluation includes the pilot-scale TEG system and all impacted equipment including pumps, controllers, and power handling equipment. Study Objectives The evaluation's goal was to assess the potential of the ATS TEG system to generate useful electrical power by capturing waste heat from cement production kilns. The objectives of this study are to evaluate and verify the following claims made by ATS regarding the pilot-scale system installed at the Holcim Alpena plant. The following design parameters and claims are also outlined in Table ES- 1 and Table ES- 2: • Gross Power: The thermoelectric system converts heat into power to create gross power, the total measured power generated by the system. The 573 active cartridge pilot-scale system is expected to generate 11.5 kW of gross power at the designed hot-side temperature of 240°C and cold-side temperature of 20°C. Power production is dependent on the temperature difference between the heat source (ultimately from the waste heat) and cold temperature supply source. • Net Power: The net power is the total usable power provided to the site by the TEG system after deducting parasitic power loads from the gross generated power. Supplementary equipment is required to operate the TEG system including pumps, controllers, and, in certain anticipated applications, mechanical cooling, which introduce parasitic loads to system operation. After deducting the parasitic loads from the gross power generation, ATS anticipates achieving a net power generation of 7.5 kW from the pilot-scale system. • Thermal Efficiency: The thermal efficiency is the percent of the total heat transferred to the TEG system that is converted to gross power. Historically, TEGs have a thermal efficiency of 2%–5% (DOE 2008). Prior industrial-scale TEG systems, such as the E1 TEG offered by Alphabet Energy, operated at an efficiency of 2.5% (Lamonica, 2014). ATS anticipates achieving an average efficiency of 4.8% or higher in converting heat energy to usable electricity. • Cartridge Performance: The TEG system comprises 573 active individual semiconductor cartridges, each of which generates a portion of the total power. Cartridge optimization and selection is an important design consideration for potential future TEG system design performance. Therefore, understanding the distribution of gross power and efficiency within the pilot system is vital to understanding what is achievable. At a design hot-side temperature of 240°C and cold-side temperature of 20°C, ATS anticipates a cartridge performance of 20 W of gross power per cartridge at an efficiency of 4.8% per cartridge. In addition to evaluating the claimed performance of the TEG pilot-scale unit, the study estimated the potential annual impacts of a scaled-up commercial system used to capture kiln waste heat over annual operations. The evaluation estimated the gross and net annual electric generation achievable by capturing heat from the two proposed tap-in points: the kiln exhaust and the clinker cooler exhaust; see Section 2.1 for details. Two use cases were examined: • Holcim Alpena: The Holcim Alpena site consists of long dry kilns with superheater boilers, which differs from the rest of Holcim’s cement plant portfolio and results in lower waste heat temperatures. The study estimates gross and net annual generation using the superheater boiler exhaust and clinker cooler exhaust, based on 2023 operational data. • Typical Installation: Common cement plants have preheater kilns with higher exhaust temperatures than Holcim Alpena across a range of production rates. The study estimates gross and net annual generation using the preheater exhaust and clinker cooler exhaust, with a sensitivity analysis to account for the typical range of preheater exhaust temperatures, clinker cooler exhaust temperatures, and clinker production rates. Methodology The evaluation methodology followed a measurement and verification (M&V) strategy based on the International Performance Measurement and Verification Protocol Option B through comprehensive measurements and analyses of the affected systems. Evaluation data was collected from March 9 to March 11, 2024, the test period of the pilot TEG system. During the test period, in coordination with the ITV team, the ATS team adjusted system operations to capture the range of variability expected for each of the variables pertinent to performance of the system. The methodology consisted of two parts: evaluating the performance of the pilot unit's TEG system and estimating the annual TEG impact in terms of gross and net power based on a given waste heat profile. First, the evaluation of the thermoelectric generation performance of the pilot unit relative to the claims was performed by analyzing the collected test data. Gross power of the pilot TEG system was directly measured. Net power was determined by deducting the measured parasitic power from the gross power. The gross power generation was compared to heat transferred to the system by the working fluid (which was heated by steam generated from the kiln waste heat) to calculate the thermal efficiency achieved by the system. Performance of individual semiconductor cartridges within the pilot array was also assessed in terms of measured gross cartridge power and calculated cartridge thermal efficiency. The second part of the evaluation estimated the annual TEG impacts in terms of gross power and net power (calculated from the difference between gross power and parasitic power). This analysis comprised development of mathematical regression models for gross power and parasitic power, with assessment of each model’s goodness-of-fit characteristics to ensure satisfaction of statistical requirements. The models predicted the gross power generation, the parasitic load based on the temperature difference between the hot working fluid and the cold-side fluid (cold water from Lake Huron) entering the system, the volumetric flow rate of the cold-side fluid at the inlet, and the volumetric flow rate of the hot working fluid at the inlet. The annual impact analysis considered a theoretical commercial-scale system sized to capture the available waste heat at a cement plant, consisting of linked pilot-scale units that receive heat from a theoretical gas-to-working-fluid heat exchanger. To estimate annual impacts at the Alpena plant, the gross power and parasitic power regression models were applied to the arrays in the theoretical commercial-scale system. The heat supplied to the unit was calculated based on the kiln run time, annual production, kiln exhaust waste heat, and clinker cooler waste heat derived from 2023 Holcim Alpena kiln operational data. Net power impacts were calculated by deducting the resulting parasitic power from the estimated gross power. Inputs for the model were generated from a combination of hourly data, assumed design considerations for TEG system scale-up from the pilot-scale unit, and assumptions regarding TEG system operations. This analysis was then used as the basis for estimating annual impacts of typical TEG installation at cement plants, by applying sensitivity analyses to key kiln operational characteristics including kiln preheater exhaust temperatures, cooler clinker exhaust temperatures, and plant daily production rates across a range of expected values. Project Results/Findings Table ES- 2 and Table ES- 2 provide a summary of the operating conditions and evaluation results compared to the stated claims from the technology provider. Key takeaways include: • Gross Power: The peak gross power achieved during the testing period was 10.0 kW, compared to the 11.5 kW expected for 573 active cartridges. The claimed gross power was associated with a target hot side of 240°C; however, the system only received a maximum hot-side mean plate temperature of 212°C during the testing period. • Net Power: The pilot-scale unit exceeded the claims for net power, achieving a peak of 7.7 kW net compared to a claim of 7.5 kW. One factor contributing to the higher achieved net power is the relatively high water pressure available through Lake Huron. The pilot TEG system did not require cold-side pumps during the test, whereas most installations would. This reduced the parasitic loads on the system, ultimately contributing to higher net power relative to the gross power. • Thermal Efficiency: The pilot-scale unit outperformed the claimed efficiency, achieving a peak system efficiency of 5.0% thermal efficiency compared to the stated 4.8%. • Cartridge Performance: To compare cartridge performance against claims, the study focused on the third day of testing, which aimed for conditions closest to the design specifications, with a hot side of 240°C and cold-side exit temperature of 6.4°–30°C. On this day, the mean gross power observed in the cartridges within the TEG array was 18.1 W/cartridge, and the peak performance was 34.7 W/cartridge. The estimated mean cartridge efficiency was 5.2%, and the estimated efficiency at peak gross cartridge power was 10%. The regression models developed for gross power generation and parasitic loads were used to estimate the generation impact for given heat input to the TEG from the working fluid (captured from the waste heat) and from the cold loop (Lake Huron) on an hourly basis for a year of operation. Based on this analysis, installation of a commercial-scale TEG system at the Holcim cement plant in Alpena, Michigan, with a waste heat exchanger of 0.85 effectiveness, would generate up to 391 kW of net power, translating to between 920,000 and 1,800,000 kilowatt-hours (kWh) in net electricity per year. Based on typical grid emissions for Alpena, this would avoid estimated net emissions by 752 metric tons of CO₂ annually.² The sensitivity analysis estimated that typical TEG system installations at cement plants could generate an average of 56–1,040 kW of net power, or between 488,000 and 9,110,000 kWh of net energy. This generation potential is most significantly affected by plant production rates and also influenced by preheater and clinker cooler exhaust temperatures. Applying the national average emission rate, typical commercial-scale installations at Holcim plants are projected to avoid between 182 and 3,401 metric tons of CO₂ annually per site. Table ES- 3 shows a summary of the estimated annual impacts.³ While parasitic loads are significant and vary by application, this analysis assumed the use of heating loop pumps and access to Lake Huron as a cold sink. This setup assumed no need for cooling loop pumps due to the available water pressure at the test site. Applications that require cooling towers or additional equipment are likely to experience higher parasitic loads. Therefore, the study’s estimates are most applicable to scenarios with similar parasitic load configurations—namely, access to a high-pressure cold sink. Applicability to other locations may be limited, as differing conditions could necessitate additional pumps and cooling systems, potentially impacting performance significantly.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Evaporation Sub-model Development for Volume of Fluid (eVOF) Method Applicable to Spray-Wall Interaction Including Film Characteristics with Validation at High Pressure and Temperature Conditions (Final Report)

Internal combustion engines have seen a great evolution over the last several decades through application of high pressure direct injection, multiple injections, and other technologies to reduced fuel consumption, NOx, and PM. Although combustion systems with advanced injection strategies have been studied extensively, there exists a significant fundamental knowledge gap on the fuel-spray interactions with the piston surface and chamber walls. Advanced computational codes validated with experimental techniques have to be developed for accurate representation of the drop impingement, fuel film formation, and vaporization. Current engine CFD spray models utilize a Lagrangian framework for modeling which lacks critical considerations of the physics pertaining to these interactions and thus requiring extensive parameterization, tuning and validation. The team from Michigan Technological University, University of Massachusetts Dartmouth, and Argonne National Laboratory is composed of experts in sprays, combustion, engines and CFD with a wide spectrum of knowledge including specific expertise in the area under consideration. In the proposed work, a VOF modeling approach has been adopted for the spray-wall interaction, film formation and spreading, and vaporization. With the inclusion of a vaporization submodel, a more predictive and accurate simulation of the spray-film was performed without extensive need of parameterization and tuning. Extensive experimentation of the spray-wall interaction under the range of conditions matching the thermodynamic and surface temperatures that occur in diesel and gasoline engines were conducted to validate the SWI submodels and for development of the evaporation sub-model, which has been implemented in the Converge software.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Evaporation Submodel Development for Volume of Fluid (eVOF) Method Applicable to Spray-Wall Interaction Including Film Characteristics with Validation at High Pressure and Temperature Conditions

Internal combustion engines have seen a great evolution over the last several decades through application of high pressure direct injection, multiple injections, and other technologies to reduced fuel consumption, NOx, and PM. Although combustion systems with advanced injection strategies have been studied extensively, there exists a significant fundamental knowledge gap on the fuel-spray interactions with the piston surface and chamber walls. Advanced computational codes validated with experimental techniques have to be developed for accurate representation of the drop impingement, fuel film formation, and vaporization. Current engine CFD (Computational Fluid Dynamics) spray models utilize a Lagrangian framework for modeling which lacks critical considerations of the physics pertaining to these interactions and thus requiring extensive parameterization, tuning and validation. The team from Michigan Technological University, University of Massachusetts Dartmouth, and Argonne National Laboratory is composed of experts in sprays, combustion, engines and CFD with a wide spectrum of knowledge including specific expertise in the area under consideration. In the proposed work, a VOF (Volume of Fluid) modeling approach has been adopted for the spray-wall interaction, film formation and spreading, and vaporization. With the inclusion of a vaporization submodel, a more predictive and accurate simulation of the spray-film was performed without extensive need of parameterization and tuning. Extensive experimentation of the spray-wall interaction under the range of conditions matching the thermodynamic and surface temperatures that occur in diesel and gasoline engines were conducted to validate the SWI submodels and for development of the evaporation submodel, which has been implemented in the flow solver.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Wind Energy High-Fidelity Model Verification and Validation Roadmap

The development of a next generation high-fidelity modeling code for wind plant applications is one of the central focus areas of the U.S. Department of Energy Atmosphere to Electrons (A2e) initiative. The code is based on a highly scalable framework, currently called Nalu-Wind. One key aspect of the model development is a coordinated formal validation program undertaken specifically to establish the predictive capability of Nalu-Wind for wind plant applications. The purpose of this document is to define the verification and validation (V&V) plan for the A2e high-fidelity modeling capability. It summarizes the V&V framework, identifies code capability users and use cases, describes model validation needs, and presents a timeline to meet those needs.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Verification and Validation of the PLTEMP/ANL Code for Thermal-Hydraulic Analysis of Experimental and Test Reactors

The document compiles in a single volume the verification and validation works done for the PLTEMP/ANL code during the years of its development and improvement. The verification of sixteen capabilities of the PLTEMP/ANL Version 4.3 code that were identified by research reactor analysts as frequently used in their thermal-hydraulic analysis are described and documented. Each chapter of the document deals with the verification or validation of a specific model. The model verification is usually done by comparing the code with hand calculation, Microsoft spreadsheet calculation, or Mathematica calculation. The model validation is done by comparing the code with experimental data or a widely tested code like the RELAP5 code. In addition, some PLTEMP/ANL verification works that are available in the open literature are simply referenced and not included in the document. PLTEMP/ANL has been used in conversion safety analysis reports of several US and foreign research reactors that have been licensed and converted. A list of such reactors is given.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Development of a Comprehensive Two-Phase Flow Database for the Validation of NEK-2P

Three-dimensional (3-D) two-phase Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) codes are emerging as a powerful and potentially practical tool for applications in which detailed local flow information is needed. However, two-phase flow models and associated closure relations are not well established for CFD applications, which is partly due to the lack of high-quality validation data. The main objective of this work is to develop a comprehensive database of two-phase flows that can be used to validate two-phase CFD codes such as NEK-2P. In this project, four advanced local measurement systems, including Particle Image Velocimetry and Planar Laser-Induced Fluorescence (PIV-PLIF), high-speed imaging, x-ray densitometry, and multi-sensor conductivity probe are employed to measure the local two-phase flow parameters of both gas and liquid phases. By combining these techniques, the local void fraction, bubble velocity, interfacial area concentration, bubble frequency, liquid velocity, turbulence intensity, etc., in various two-phase flow regimes can be obtained. These local measurement techniques are first used in a 25.4 mm circular pipe test section. Seven air-water two-phase flow conditions spanning the bubbly, slug, churn-turbulent, and annular flow regimes are measured in this facility. The obtained database contains the radial profiles of both gas- and liquid-phase parameters at three axial locations along the test section. The second facility used in this work contains a 30 mm × 10 mm rectangular test section, in which three two-phase flow and two single-phase flow conditions are measured. Two-dimensional distributions of local two-phase flow parameters in the cross-sectional plane are measured in this facility at three axial locations as well. A facility featuring a 3×3 electrically heated rod bundle is also designed and being constructed in this project. This facility is specially designed for optical measurements and is expected to provide high-quality boiling data in the future. Preliminary analyses have been performed for the data taken in the 25.4 mm circular pipe. Both center-peaked and wall-peaked void fraction profiles have been observed in the data depending on the two-phase flow conditions and/or developing lengths. The 1-D drift-flux model was evaluated with the newly obtained datasets, in which both gas- and liquid-phases data were directly measured. The distribution parameter model has been optimized based on a new void-profile classification method proposed in this study. The optimized drift-flux model shows a significant improvement in predicting both gas velocity and void fraction. The measured liquid-phase turbulence was used to benchmark Sato’s turbulence model considering the bubble-induced shear stress for the three tested bubbly flows. The benchmark results showed good agreement between the PIV measurements and model predictions. In the bubbly flows tested that have low void fractions less than 3%, the effect of the bubble-induced turbulence was found not significant. However, the bubble-induced shear stress becomes important with the increase of the void fraction. The Conjugate Heat Transfer (CHT) model was developed and implemented in NEK-2P. This model allows the coupled simulation of the solid domain and two-phase fluid domain, allowing the specification of realistic boundary conditions. The CHT implementation was verified first with non-boiling simulations. The predicted temperatures in the fluid domain were shown to be identical in simulations with or without the CHT model. The CHT model was then validated through simulations of three Becker benchmark CHF tests performed under both Dryout (DO) and Departure from Nucleate Boiling (DNB) conditions. Reasonably good agreement was obtained between calculated wall temperatures and corresponding experimental data.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Verification and Validation of the PLTEMP/ANL Code for Thermal-Hydraulic Analysis of Experimental and Test Reactors (Code Version 4.3)

The document compiles in a single volume the verification and validation works done for the PLTEMP/ANL code during the years of its development and improvement. The verification of sixteen capabilities of the PLTEMP/ANL Version 4.3 code that were identified by research reactor analysts as frequently used in their thermal-hydraulic analysis are described and documented. Each chapter of the document deals with the verification or validation of a specific part of the software that calculates a specific phenomenon, e.g., channel flow calculation, coolant property calculation, heat transfer calculation, and flow instability calculation. The software verification work is usually done by comparing the code with hand calculation, Microsoft spreadsheet calculation, or Mathematica calculation. The software validation is done by comparing the code with experimental data or a widely tested code like the RELAP5 code. In addition, some PLTEMP/ANL verification works that are available in the open literature are simply referenced and not included in the document. PLTEMP/ANL has been used in conversion safety analysis reports of several US and foreign research reactors that have been licensed and converted. A list of such reactors is given.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Verification and Validation of a Modified Numerical Algorithm for Simulation of Transient Unconfined Groundwater Flow

This report extends verification and validation testing of the NUFT package of codes (Nitao 2000a,b) to the US1P module of code designed for simulation of single-phase mixed or “coupled” saturated and unsaturated (or “variably saturated”) groundwater flow. Importantly, the verification and validation testing of US1P in this report includes performance evaluation of a modified numerical algorithm that was not included in prior quality assurance (QA) of the NUFT package by Carle et al. (2014) for Underground Test Area (UGTA) project activities, which are directed at assessment of radionuclide contamination in groundwater sourced from underground nuclear test locations at the Nevada National Security Site (NNSS). An immediate purpose of this report is to provide QA for ongoing large-scale, three-dimensional (3-D) groundwater flow modeling of transient water levels associated with longterm water supply pumping and underground nuclear testing at the NNSS (Jackson and Fenelon, 2018; Jackson et al., 2021). For UGTA activities, the QA refers to the standards of ASTM (1996) for verification and validation testing of groundwater modeling codes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

SAS4A/SASSYS-1 Validation with the FFTF LOFWOS Tests #10-12

The FFTF liquid sodium cooled test reactor was built to assist the development and testing of advanced fuels and material for fast reactors. The goals of the FFTF Passive Safety Testing program included confirming the safety margins of FFTF as a liquid metal reactor, providing data for computer code validation, and demonstrating the inherent and passive safety benefits of its specific design features. The program included thirteen unprotected loss of flow without scram tests. The results of modeling and simulation of LOFWOS Tests #10, #11, and #12 are presented in this report to support validation of Argonne’s SAS4A/SASSYS-1 fast reactor safety analysis code. These three tests did not use the primary loop pony motors and thus transitioned to natural circulation flow rates from varying initial power levels. This validation activity leverages modeling and simulation efforts that originated under an International Atomic Energy Agency Coordinated Research Project (CRP) for benchmark analysis of the FFTF LOFWOS Test #13. The SAS4A/SASSYS-1 model originally developed for the CRP has been extended to include LOFWOS Tests #10-12 and modernized to utilize new code features and modeling practices. Predicted results from SAS4A/SASSYS-1 were compared to measured test data and differences were investigated. Overall, it was concluded that, for LOFWOS Tests #10-12, there was good agreement between the flow, power, and temperature predictions and the measured data.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Validation of NEAMS Tools Using MSRE Data

This report documents the benchmarks developed and performed for the tools and codes developed under the Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) program utilizing the MSRE experiment data. There are three focus areas explored in this work: fuel evolution, CFD, and system transient analyses. Fuel depletion is important for MSR reactor physics and fuel cycle analysis. Fuel depletion capability is currently being developed in the Griffin reactor physics code. To support this, a benchmark problem is developed using the MSRE data and an existing depletion code with flowing fuel analysis functionality (ADDER) to validate this new capability in Griffin. The ADDER calculation is compared with the TRITON-MSR results as well as the MSRE experimental data. This benchmark can be directly used to verify and validate the Griffin fuel depletion capability in future years. For CFD simulation, the MSRE CAD model is obtained from the Copenhagen Atomics and a mesh is generated for the MSRE inlet plenum. The Nek5000 code will be employed to find the flow distribution in the MSRE inlet plenum based on the mesh generated. For system analysis, a simple benchmark problem for three types of MSR system transients is developed. The SAM and SPECTRA codes are used to solve the simple problem, and the results from the two codes agree well. The SAM code is also employed to obtain the frequency response of the MSRE system at the 5 and 8 MWt power levels. The results agree well with the experiment measurements. These verification and validation efforts gives SAM users more confidence in MSR system transient simulations using SAM. Lastly, the SAM-Griffin Multiphysics coupling work is initiated. A simple one-way coupling of evaluating the precursor drift effect on the MSRE k-eff is demonstrated. This preliminary coupling work serves as the basis for future more complex Multiphysics simulation and modelling.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Update on NNL TSL Validation Efforts [Slides]

A new sub-thermal neutron transmission capability at RPI LINAC has been used to validate Be (metal). NNL transmission measurements validated NCSU Be and Be+Sd TSLs for ENDF/B-VIII.1 and showed improvements WRT ENDF/B-VII.1 and ENDF/B-VIII.0. Amplitude differences highlighted the importance of sample characterization. Additional measurement is in progress for CY2022. PNDA is being developed as an alternative to critical experiment validation.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗