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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

On the Road to Achieving Safety Excellence at the Idaho Cleanup Project: The Initial Challenges, Solutions, and Positive Results of Striving to be the Best and Safest in the DOE Complex - 20518

When Fluor Idaho, LLC (Fluor Idaho) assumed the Idaho Cleanup Project Core contract (ICP Core) in mid-2016, it inherited the successful multi-faceted, employee-owned safety programs of two prior contractors supporting cleanup operations at the Idaho National Laboratory Site. Fluor Idaho incorporated the best of both safety programs along with Fluor Corporate's 106-year legacy of safety initiatives and successes. Fluor Idaho integrated the separate programs and cultures under a One Fluor approach - one project, one mission, One Fluor. Job changes, management changes, and procedures, processes, and system changes presented multiple challenges. Those challenges combined with the severe Winter of 2016/2017 resulted in numerous slips, trips, and falls first aids and reportable injuries. The road to safety excellence started off bumpy and stayed that way for some time. Since then, Fluor Idaho has successfully implemented several key initiatives including employee engagement; management engagement and time in the field; communications improvements; safety culture sustainment; injury/illness prevention; organizational learning; and DOE Voluntary Protection Program (VPP) readiness and preparation. Management became more engaged by making more workplace visits and increasing their supervision of 'life critical work' or complex activities. Additional training became mandatory for first-line supervisors and front-line workers. Most recently, Fluor Idaho increased its injury and illness prevention initiatives extensively. In the last year, things have turned around in a dramatic way. This shift is directly attributable to the significant number of initiatives launched in late 2017 and 2018. These initiatives addressed safety performance in the five key areas of the DOE VPP and promoted sustainability of the company's safety culture. The five key areas are: management leadership, employee involvement, work-site analysis, hazard prevention and control, and safety and health training. Employees and managers alike recommitted to making safety the highest value. The result of this laser-like focus on safety and accident and injury prevention is that injuries and first aids are a fraction of what they were. During FY 2019, employees worked more than 4.2 million hours without a serious injury or lost work-day and 1 million hours without a recordable injury. Fluor Idaho is proud of its safety trend. The company invested significant resources in improving its safety record, and that investment is paying off. Other contractors in the DOE Complex can learn and benefit from this discussion of the challenges Fluor Idaho faced, as well as its innovative safety initiatives that are producing results that are being recognized by our U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) customer. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2025

Application-specific machine-learned interatomic potentials: exploring the trade-off between DFT convergence, MLIP expressivity, and computational cost

Machine-learned interatomic potentials (MLIPs) are revolutionizing computational materials science and chemistry by offering an efficient alternative to ab initio molecular dynamics (MD) simulations. However, fitting high-quality MLIPs remains a challenging, time-consuming, and computationally intensive task where numerous trade-offs have to be considered, e.g., How much and what kind of atomic configurations should be included in the training set? Which level of ab initio convergence should be used to generate the training set? Which loss function should be used for fitting the MLIP? Which machine learning architecture should be used to train the MLIP? The answers to these questions significantly impact both the computational cost of MLIP training and the accuracy and computational cost of subsequent MLIP MD simulations. In this study, we use a configurationally diverse beryllium dataset and quadratic spectral neighbor analysis potential. We demonstrate that joint optimization of energy versus force weights, training set selection strategies, and convergence settings of the ab initio reference simulations, as well as model complexity can lead to a significant reduction in the overall computational cost associated with training and evaluating MLIPs. This opens the door to computationally efficient generation of high-quality MLIPs for a range of applications which demand different accuracy versus training and evaluation cost trade-offs.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Identifying Critical Infrastructure in Imagery Data Using Explainable Convolutional Neural Networks

To date, no method utilizing satellite imagery exists for detailing the locations and functions of critical infrastructure across the United States, making response to natural disasters and other events challenging due to complex infrastructural interdependencies. This paper presents a repeatable, transferable, and explainable method for critical infrastructure analysis and implementation of a robust model for critical infrastructure detection in satellite imagery. This model consists of a DenseNet-161 convolutional neural network, pretrained with the ImageNet database. The model was provided additional training with a custom dataset, containing nine infrastructure classes. The resultant analysis achieved an overall accuracy of 90%, with the highest accuracy for airports (97%), hydroelectric dams (96%), solar farms (94%), substations (91%), potable water tanks (93%), and hospitals (93%). Critical infrastructure types with relatively low accuracy are likely influenced by data commonality between similar infrastructure components for petroleum terminals (86%), water treatment plants (78%), and natural gas generation (78%). Local interpretable model-agnostic explanations (LIME) was integrated into the overall modeling pipeline to establish trust for users in critical infrastructure applications. The results demonstrate the effectiveness of a convolutional neural network approach for critical infrastructure identification, with higher than 90% accuracy in identifying six of the critical infrastructure facility types.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Explainable Machine Learning for Functional Data

Black-box machine learning models are recognized as useful tools for prediction applications, but the algorithmic complexity of some models causes interpretation challenges. Explainability methods have been proposed to provide insight into these models, but there is little research focused on supervised modeling with functional data inputs. We argue that, especially in applications of high consequence, it is important to explicitly model the functional dependence in a black-box analysis to not obscure or misrepresent patterns in explanations. As such, we propose the V ariable importance E xplainable E lastic S hape A nalysis (VEESA) pipeline for training supervised machine learning models with functional inputs. The pipeline is an analysis process that includes the data preprocessing, modeling, and post-hoc explanations. The preprocessing is done using elastic functional principal components analysis, which accounts for vertical and horizontal variability in functional data and, ultimately, allows for explanations in the original data space that identify the important functional variability without bias due to correlated variables. Here, we demonstrate the pipeline on two high-consequence applications: explosives classification for national security and inkjet printer identification in forensic science. The applications exhibit the VEESA pipeline’s ability to provide an understanding of the characteristics of the functional data useful for prediction. Code for implementing the pipeline is available in the veesa R package (and supplemental python code).

Elastic Shape Analysis↗
DOE OSTI2022

Better Buildings Workforce Accelerator – Technical Assistance Project: Northwest Energy Efficiency Council – A Replicable Analysis for Building Operator Certification Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion Objectives

The Northwest Energy Efficiency Council (NEEC) requested technical assistance through the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Better Buildings Workforce Accelerator (BBWA) program, with the objective of developing a replicable analytical approach to understanding Building Operator Certification (BOC) program participants and measure progress towards diversity, equity, and inclusion objectives. The technical assistance advances NEEC’s progress towards their goal of recruiting more diverse students to the BOC training and certification program. This report develops a replicable geospatial analysis of BOC program participants based on DEI indicators that can be applied at a national level, provides a step-by-step guide on repeating and updating the analysis, and presents recommendations for future data collection and analysis.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2021

On the feasibility of using physics-informed machine learning for underground reservoir pressure management

In this work, we evaluate the feasibility of using physics-informed machine learning (PIML) for underground energy-related pressure management. To this end, we develop a PIML framework to manage underground reservoir pressures by training neural networks to determine fluid extraction rates for dedicated extraction wells during fluid injection operations given a range of reservoir conditions (e.g., transmissivity and storativity). We implement an automatically-differentiable analytical physics model of fluid flow in porous media within the PIML framework as a proxy for more complicated models. This allows us to execute a sufficient number of training scenarios to fully evaluate the feasibility of using PIML to support pressure management activities. We quantify the number of physics-model parameters required for automatic differentiation to become more efficient than finite-difference gradient calculations. We use a simple scenario with a single injector, extractor, and critical location for our feasibility analysis. We evaluate the effect of the size of the training dataset (i.e., the number of reservoir condition samples) on the accuracy and efficiency of the PIML framework. For an equivalent number of model evaluations, the larger training dataset took less time to train and produced a neural network that was able to more accurately manage reservoir pressures. We also evaluate the effect of the training dataset batch size (i.e., number of reservoir condition samples used to update the neural network coefficients during training; i.e., how the training dataset is partitioned). While training ran faster with larger batch sizes, they produced neural networks that managed pressures less accurately. We demonstrate the approach on a more complex scenario involving 10 injectors, 10 extractors, and 4 critical locations (a relatively high well density of 20 wells/km2). We provide the number of forward and adjoint model evaluations required in each case as an indication of the feasibility of using PIML for pressure management when more complicated physics models with longer execution times are used.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

ANS Winter 2022: ATF-2C Physics Safety and Scoping Analysis

ATF-2C comprises four tiers with six rodlets each. The experiment test train (TT) is situated in Loop 2A in the center flux trap (CFT) of the ATR, in which typical pressurized water reactor (PWR) conditions shall be approximated. Tier 1 (bottom) of the TT tests Framatome silicon carbide (SiC) cladding, containing molybdenum heater rods. Low-enriched uranium (LEU) Framatome rodlets with chrome-coated M5 cladding have been modeled in their place for the physics safety analysis to allow the substitution of this tier with fuel if needed. Tier 2 tests LEU Framatome rodlets with M5 cladding, which had irradiated in ATR in prior ATF experiments. Tier 3 tests General Atomics SiC composite cladding, also containing molybdenum heater rods. Tier 4/5/6 (top) tests the Japan Atomic Energy Agency (JAEA)/Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (MHI) fueled rodlets. This upper tier tests LEU rodlets with chrome-coated MDA cladding—several with temperature or pressure instrumentation. To flatten the axial power profile, lower portion of Tier 4/5/6 is surrounded by a hafnium (Hf) shroud, and the bottom two UO2 pellets are of natural enrichment. The ATF-2C TT is to be irradiated in the CFT of ATR (Fig. 1) for three or four 60-day cycles.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Establishing performance metrics for quantitative non-targeted analysis: a demonstration using per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances

Abstract Non-targeted analysis (NTA) is an increasingly popular technique for characterizing undefined chemical analytes. Generating quantitative NTA (qNTA) concentration estimates requires the use of training data from calibration “surrogates,” which can yield diminished predictive performance relative to targeted analysis. To evaluate performance differences between targeted and qNTA approaches, we defined new metrics that convey predictive accuracy, uncertainty (using 95% inverse confidence intervals), and reliability (the extent to which confidence intervals contain true values). We calculated and examined these newly defined metrics across five quantitative approaches applied to a mixture of 29 per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS). The quantitative approaches spanned a traditional targeted design using chemical-specific calibration curves to a generalizable qNTA design using bootstrap-sampled calibration values from “global” chemical surrogates. As expected, the targeted approaches performed best, with major benefits realized from matched calibration curves and internal standard correction. In comparison to the benchmark targeted approach, the most generalizable qNTA approach (using “global” surrogates) showed a decrease in accuracy by a factor of ~4, an increase in uncertainty by a factor of ~1000, and a decrease in reliability by ~5%, on average. Using “expert-selected” surrogates ( n = 3) instead of “global” surrogates ( n = 25) for qNTA yielded improvements in predictive accuracy (by ~1.5×) and uncertainty (by ~70×) but at the cost of further-reduced reliability (by ~5%). Overall, our results illustrate the utility of qNTA approaches for a subclass of emerging contaminants and present a framework on which to develop new approaches for more complex use cases. Graphical Abstract

Pu, Shirley (ORCID:0000000201223797)↗
DOE OSTI2020

As-run thermal hydraulics analysis of the EPRI-1 Experiment

The EPRI-1 experiment was designed to irradiate various types of reactor pressure vessel steels at a temperature of 288°C (PLN-3934). The specimens were irradiated in an instrumented test train inside a pressurized water loop in the center lobe of the ATR during cycle 157C. Temperature was monitored using thermocouples placed at the top of the test train. Additional temperature indications were obtained by post-irradiation examination of melt wires placed within the test train and spanning the temperature range 239°C to 327°C. The purpose of this analysis is to calculate specimen temperature using measured data on reactor power and as-run calculations of heating rates of the test train. The accuracy of the model is assessed by comparing the measured and calculated in-pile tube inlet to outlet temperature difference, comparing the measured and calculated thermocouple temperatures, and comparing the calculated specimen temperature to the temperature range indicated by the melt wires.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2023

A Parallel Machine Learning Workflow for Neutron Scattering Data Analysis

As part of a larger effort, this work-in-progress reports the possible advantages of modifying conventional workflows used to generate labelled training samples and train machine learning (ML) models on them. We compare results from three different workflows using neutron scattering data analysis as the motivating application and report about 20% improvement in speedup, with no appreciable loss of model accuracy, over a baseline workflow.

Wang, Tianle↗
DOE OSTI2021

Rounding Error Analysis of Mixed Precision Block Householder QR Algorithms

Although mixed precision arithmetic has recently garnered interest for training dense neural networks, many other applications could benefit from the speedups and lower storage cost if applied appropriately. The growing interest in employing mixed precision computations motivates the need for rounding error analysis that properly handles behavior from mixed precision arithmetic. We develop mixed precision variants of existing Householder QR algorithms and show error analyses supported by numerical experiments.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Autonomous System Inference, Trojan, and Adversarial Reprogramming Attack and Defense (Final)

In the world of ever-advancing technology, Autonomous Systems (AS) find extensive application, bolstering functionalities of critical infrastructures such as nuclear power plants. These systems, however, are increasingly becoming a target for nefarious activities, namely through inference attacks, trojan attacks, and adversarial reprogramming. This paper delves into a comprehensive exploration of machine learning (ML)-driven autonomous control systems within advanced nuclear reactor designs, revealing the vulnerabilities and proposing strategies for defense against potential cyber-attacks. Advanced cyber-attacks against critical infrastructure and the energy sector are becoming more common. With the invention of autonomous control systems (ACS) within advanced nuclear reactor designs, system designers, reactor operators, and regulators must consider cybersecurity during the design and operational phases. This article provides a cyber threat assessment of machine learning (ML)- based digital twinning (DT) technologies in the context of advanced reactor ACS. A cyber-physical testbed was created to emulate nuclear reactor digital instrumentation and controls (I&C) and act as a basis for the ACS. The ACS was designed as two plant-level DTs predicting reactor malfunctions and determining control actions and two component-level DTs responsible for classifying component states and forecasting component inputs and outputs (I/O). Two duplicate ACS designs– one using a traditional ML framework and one using an automated ML (AutoML) framework– were created and tested against cyber-attacks on training data, real-time process data, and ML model architectures to determine their respective qualitative cyber-risk in terms of likelihood and impact. Both frameworks showed similar cyber-resilience against training, real-time, and ML architecture attacks, proving that neither is inherently more secure. Recommended safeguard and security measures are posed to system designers, reactor operators, and regulators to maintain the cybersecurity of ML-based DT technologies such as ACS, prompting a holistic view of shared responsibility for maintaining cyber-secure ML-based systems. As global reliance on generation III reactors begins to be critically assessed, the evolution towards advanced reactor systems utilizing digital instrumentation and controls (I&C) becomes not merely preferable, but essential. The integration of semi and fully autonomous control systems (ACS), powered by digital I&C and machine learning (ML)-based digital twinning (DT) technologies, emerges as a potent strategy to mitigate operations and maintenance costs, thereby enhancing the economic feasibility of novel reactor designs. However, with a staggering 500% and 380% increase in cyber-attacks reported against the energy sector by the United States Department of Energy (DoE) and the European Union respectively, a surge in cyber vulnerabilities specifically targeting the nuclear industry has been 2 markedly observed. Notable incidents, such as the W32.Ramnit spyware infiltration at the Gundremmingen nuclear power plant in Germany and the Dtrack spyware intrusion at the Kudankulam nuclear power plant in India, while not directly compromising core industrial control systems (ICS), underscore a compelling necessity to fortify cybersecurity protocols in safeguarding reactor systems against increasingly adept digital adversaries. In light of this, our investigation extends beyond conventional cybersecurity parameters, diving into the intricate web of potential vulnerabilities woven into ML-based DTs and ACS in advanced reactor systems. A crafted cyber-physical testbed and preliminary ACS were devised to act as a mirror, reflecting potential configurations of advanced reactor control designs. Moreover, this study is intertwined with a scrutinization of ML models, developed either through conventional, manually tuned methodologies or via automated means through AutoML, probing into their cyber-risk profiles within operational technology (OT) environments. Expanding on this, two distinct ACS blueprints were forged – one navigating through the corridors of traditional ML and the other traversing the path of AutoML – in an effort to holistically encapsulate the considerations pivotal to ML-based DT control system design. Employing the SANS Institute Industrial Control System (ICS) Kill Chain and the MITRE ATT&CK Tactics, Techniques, and Procedures (TTP) framework, a structured analysis was conducted, launching three targeted attacks against the training dataset, real-time dataset, and ML models, therein dissecting the potential cyber-attack implications against both ML frameworks within an ACS milieu. It is essential to note that three distinct categories of attacks were conducted against both ACS configurations, each encompassing three distinct ML-based DTs, cumulating in a total of 18 varied attacks. This exploration extends into the realms of Autonomous System Inference, Trojan, and Adversarial Reprogramming Attack and Defense, unraveling vulnerabilities, and opportunities for fortified defenses against such intrusions, particularly where ML-driven technologies, and by extension, ACS, are deployed. Final recommendations, articulated through a lens of security, safeguard, and implementation considerations, are presented for both traditional and AutoML models, anchoring upon the existing knowledge landscape and ML-based DT modeling for ACS, and are offered as a beacon to guide the nuclear industry through the intricate cybersecurity challenges that lie ahead.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Prediction of non-intuitive metabolic targets with bayesian metabolic control analysis to improve 3-hydroxypropionic acid production in Aspergillus niger

Development of efficient bioconversion processes is limited by the ability to predictably improve metabolic flux. Here we deployed Bayesian Metabolic Control Analysis as a platform to integrate multi-omics data with metabolic modeling and evaluated its ability to predict genetic interventions that improve metabolic flux. Global Metabolomics and proteomics data was collected from 17 Aspergillus niger strains engineered to produce the platform biochemical 3-hydroxypropionic acid from which seven actional genetic interventions were predicted from significant flux control coefficients. Of the suggested genetic interventions, two were present within the intuitively designed strains used for training (malonic semialdehyde dehydrogenase and pyruvate carboxylase) while five predicted targets were present within non-intuitive areas of the metabolic network including 5-formyltetrahydrofolate deformylase and four mitochondrial enzymes, alcohol dehydrogenase, succinyl-CoA ligase, aspartate aminotransferase, and malate dehydrogenase. Six of the targets were validated in the highest performing 3-HP strain used for multi-omics data generation which contained a prior disruption of the highest scoring target malonic semialdehyde dehydrogenase. Predicted directional perturbation of five of the six tested targets significantly improved titer and rate of 3-HP production and two significantly improved yield. The greatest improvements were observed following disruption of the non-intuitive target succinyl-CoA ligase which increased titer by 39% and yield by 29% (to 20.4 g/L 3-HP and 0.31 g 3-HP/g glucose) over the strains used for training. This study demonstrates the utility of Bayesian Metabolic Control Analysis and highlights the ability to predict meaningful genetic targets in unexpected areas of metabolism to improve engineered strains for bioconversion.

3-hydroxypropionic acid↗
DOE OSTI2024

The Galaxy platform for accessible, reproducible, and collaborative data analyses: 2024 update

Galaxy (https://galaxyproject.org) is deployed globally, predominantly through free-to-use services, supporting user-driven research that broadens in scope each year. Users are attracted to public Galaxy services by platform stability, tool and reference dataset diversity, training, support and integration, which enables complex, reproducible, shareable data analysis. Applying the principles of user experience design (UXD), has driven improvements in accessibility, tool discoverability through Galaxy Labs/subdomains, and a redesigned Galaxy ToolShed. Galaxy tool capabilities are progressing in two strategic directions: integrating general purpose graphical processing units (GPGPU) access for cutting-edge methods, and licensed tool support. Engagement with global research consortia is being increased by developing more workflows in Galaxy and by resourcing the public Galaxy services to run them. The Galaxy Training Network (GTN) portfolio has grown in both size, and accessibility, through learning paths and direct integration with Galaxy tools that feature in training courses. Code development continues in line with the Galaxy Project roadmap, with improvements to job scheduling and the user interface. Environmental impact assessment is also helping engage users and developers, reminding them of their role in sustainability, by displaying estimated CO 2 emissions generated by each Galaxy job.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Development and evaluation of a list mode neutron coincidence collar for spatial response measurements of fresh fuel assemblies

A traditional safeguards neutron coincidence counting system, the Neutron Coincidence Collar, has been modified to incorporate individual preamplifiers on each of its 18 3He tubes in active interrogation mode. When used with list mode data acquisition (LMDA) and analysis, a signal from each 3He tube can be recorded and analyzed to allow a spatial response measurement to be performed on an item based on count rate and 3He tube location within the system. The ultimate goal of this project is to demonstrate the capabilities of a list mode response matrix for the nondestructive assay of fresh nuclear fuel assemblies. To enable partial defect detection of fuel pin locations and absences within an assembly, the project aims to extend well-established correlated neutron analysis techniques on a preexisting Neutron Coincidence Collar by extracting a greater number of useful signatures from the system than are currently generated. LMDA, combined with the addition of multiple preamplifiers, facilitates this capability by increasing the number of simultaneous signals that can be measured; this allows an in-depth analysis of neutron coincidence events to determine a fissioning item’s location based on the measured doubles count rate in various channel logic coincidence combinations. All of this can be done from a single measurement pulse train in offline analysis, which is the major benefit provided by LMDA. Through various stages of development and testing, a Mirion Technologies model JCC-71 Neutron Coincidence Collar has been successfully retrofit with modern electronics designed in-house at Oak Ridge National Laboratory, matching preexisting JAB-01 electronics performance, while maintaining the original system footprint. This paper presents these various stages of development and experimental evaluation of the proof of concept system.

Moore, Angela S.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Estimating Cosmological Constraints from Galaxy Cluster Abundance using Simulation-Based Inference

Inferring the values and uncertainties of cosmological parameters in a cosmology model is of paramount importance for modern cosmic observations. In this paper, we use the simulation-based inference (SBI) approach to estimate cosmological constraints from a simplified galaxy cluster observation analysis. Using data generated from the Quijote simulation suite and analytical models, we train a machine learning algorithm to learn the probability function between cosmological parameters and the possible galaxy cluster observables. The posterior distribution of the cosmological parameters at a given observation is then obtained by sampling the predictions from the trained algorithm. Our results show that the SBI method can successfully recover the truth values of the cosmological parameters within the 2σ limit for this simplified galaxy cluster analysis, and acquires similar posterior constraints obtained with a likelihood-based Markov Chain Monte Carlo method, the current state-of the-art method used in similar cosmological studies.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2022

Enhanced analysis of experimental x-ray spectra through deep learning

X-ray spectroscopic data from high-energy-density laser-produced plasmas has long required thorough, time-consuming analysis to extract meaningful source conditions. There are often confounding factors due to rapidly evolving states and finite spatial gradients (e.g., the existence of multi-temperature, multi-density, multi-ionization states, etc.) that make spectral measurements and analysis difficult. Here, in this paper, we demonstrate how deep learning can be applied to enhance x-ray spectral data analysis in both speed and intricacy. Neural networks (NNs) are trained on ensemble atomic physics simulations so that they can subsequently construct a model capable of extracting plasma parameters directly from experimental spectra. Through deep learning, the models can extract temperature distributions as opposed to single or dual temperature/density fits from standard trial-and-error atomic modeling at a significantly reduced computational cost compared to traditional trial-and-error methods. These NNs are envisioned to be deployed with high repetition rate x-ray spectrometers in order to provide detailed real-time analysis of experimental spectra.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Workforce planning: a review of methodologies

Workforce planning deals with determining the number of employees and associated skills necessary to meet the future operational needs of an organization. A workforce system consists of six elements: recruitment, attrition, promotion, training, retention, and scheduling. Historically, several workforce modeling and analysis methodologies have been developed to capture these elements. This paper reviews the results of workforce and manpower models published within peer-reviewed literature between 1959 and 2021 to provide an in-depth analysis of current models. The focus of this review is on analytical, simulation, and empirical models found in literature that were collected based on a citation requirement and keyword search criteria. Results demonstrate the trends in workforce modeling research and discuss the common uses of each model type and the advantages/disadvantages related to each model. Based on the common attributes of workforce systems, the discussion focuses on the most frequently used model type for each element and the best use for each model. Lastly, recommendations are made for the development of workforce models that allow the most comprehensive view of the workforce systems of the future.

42 ENGINEERING↗