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NASA NTRS1997

Shoemaker-Levy 9 and Plume-Forming Collisions on Earth

Computational models for the July, 1994 collision of comet Shoemaker Levy 9 with Jupiter have provided a framework for interpreting the observational data. Imaging, photometry, and spectroscopy data from ground-based, Hubble Space Telescope, and Galileo spacecraft instruments are consistent with phenomena that were dominated by the generation of incandescent fireballs that were ballistically ejected to high altitudes, where they formed plumes that subsequently collapsed over large areas of Jupiter's atmosphere. Applications of similar computational models to collisions into Earth's atmosphere show that a very similar sequence of events should take place for NEO impacts with energies as low as 3 megatons, recurring on 100 year timescales or less. This result suggests that the 1908 Tunguska event was a plume-forming atmospheric explosion, and that some of the phenomena associated with it might be related to the ejection and collapse of a high plume. Hazards associated with plume growth and collapse should be included in the evaluation of the impact threat to Earth, and opportunities should be sought for observational validation of atmospheric impact models by exploiting data already being collected from the natural flux of multikiloton to megaton sized objects that constantly enter Earth's atmosphere on annual to decadal timescales.

Boslough, Mark B. E.↗

NASA NTRS1996

Bulk Properties of Isentropic Mixing into the Tropics in the Lower Stratosphere

Timescales for mixing of midlatitude air into the tropical lower stratosphere are deduced from observations of long-lived tracers N2O and CCl3F. Bulk mixing between tropical and midlatitude regions is assumed to be isentropic and relatively slow compared with local mixing within each region. The mean value of the mixing timescale ranges from 12 to 18 months near 20 km. There is a tendency for shorter mixing times at higher and lower altitudes, although vertical profiles of mixing cannot be definitively established by the data. A more robust quantity is given by the fraction of midlatitude air entrained into the tropical upwelling region. Implied mixing fractions exceed 50% above 22 km.

Minschwaner, K.↗

NASA NTRS1998

Deep and Monitoring Observations of the Black Hole Candidates 1E 1740.7-2942 and GRS 1758-258

The purpose of this effort was to obtain detailed information on the long term variability of the power spectra and energy spectra of the two Black Hole Candidates (BHCs) and so-called "micro-quasars", 1E 1740.7-2942 and GRS 1758-258. Observations with the pointed instruments on the Rossi X-ray Timing Explorer (RXTE) were carried out on a weekly basis for an entire year, in order to observe the extent to which these sources changed on long timescales. The observations also served as a trigger for longer observations carried out under a sister proposal "Target of Opportunity Observations of the Black Hole Candidates 1E 1740.7-2942 and GRS 1758-258". The work done at UCSD by W. Heindl consisted first of monitoring the data from the High Energy X-ray Timing Experiment (HEXTE) to determine when the sources were bright enough to trigger our Target of Opportunity observations. He was then responsible for the reduction and interpretation of the HEXTE data and for contributing to the publication of results of this work. Historically, these objects have been highly variable on long timescales. Observations between 1988 and 1995 found that they tend to spend periods of several months in high and low flux states which differ in luminosity by more than an order of magnitude. In more than 2 years of RXTE observations to date, we have found variability only on the level of tens of percent. Both sources have remained near their historical maximum luminosities during this time. This is a significant change from previous behavior, and indicates that their accretion rates have stabilized in recent years. In addition, their observed spectra have been quite stable.

Heindl, William A.↗

NASA NTRS1996

Transient Creep of a Composite Lower Crust: A Polymineralic Basis for Rapidly Evolving Postseismic Deformation Modes - 2

Postseismic horizontal strain and displacement following the June 28, 1992, Landers, California, earthquake (M(sub W) 7.3) is broad scale and cannot be explained solely by delayed afterslip located at the rupturing fault trace. Both the observed strain at Pifion Flat Observatory (PFO) and observed Global Positioning System receiver velocities evolve rapidly after the Landers-Big Bear earthquake sequence. The observed exponential decay of these motions, with timescales of 4-34 days, may reflect a soft creep rheology in the lower crust and brittle-ductile transition zone or even within the seismogenic crust itself. Here a simple model of a two-dimensional screw dislocation in a layered Maxwell viscoelastic Earth is employed in conjunction with a composite rheology to demonstrate that the short timescale transient response modes (approx. = 4-34 days) are consistent with the behavior of a biviscous lower crust. The lowest viscosity of this system is derivable from laboratory experimental data on the long-term creep of natural quarztites, and the highest viscosity is consistent with isostasy-related lower crustal flow in a continental extensional tectonic environment. The model predicts significant stress relaxation at the base of the seismogenic crust. Near the base of the seismogenic zone, and about 4 km away from the mainshock, the rate of predicted relaxation is of the order of 0.01 MPa/ d during the first 20 days of postseismic flow. Oblate spheroidal inclusions at 5% concentration levels that are both aligned and fairly flat in shape and that have a viscosity of 3-4 x 10(exp 15) Pa s are consistent with both the amplitude and decay time of horizontal crustal strain observed at PFO after the Landers mainshock. It is speculated that the structures exposed in cross sections and in seismic reflection profiles of the lower crust that have mylonitic associations are, in part, the cause of such rapid postseismic evolution in southeastern California. Unmylonitized quartz-rich rock at sufficiently elevated temperatures could also contribute to the rapid decay modes.

Ivins, Erik R.↗

NASA NTRS1998

Transport Between the Tropical and Midlatitude Lower Stratosphere: Implications for Ozone Response to High Speed Civil Transport Emissions

Several recent studies have quantified the air exchange rate between the tropics and midlatitudes in the lower stratosphere using airborne and satellite measurements of chemical species. It is found that the midlatitude air is mixed into the tropical lower stratosphere with a replacement timescale of 13.5 months (with 20% uncertainty) for the region from the tropopause to 21 km and at least 18 months for the region of 20-28 km. These estimates are used to adjust the horizontal eddy diffusion coefficients, K(sub yy), in a two-dimensional chemistry transport model. The value of K(sub yy) previously used to simulate the subtropical barrier, 0.03 x 10(exp 6)sq m/s, generates an exchange time of about 4 years, and the model without subtropical barrier (K(sub yy) = 0.3 x 10(exp 6)sq m/s) has an exchange time of 5 months. Adjusting the K(sub yy) to 0.13 x 10(exp 6) sq m/s from the tropopause to 21 km and 0.07 x 10(exp 6)sq m/s above 21 km produces the exchange timescales which match the estimates deduced from the measurements. The subtropical barrier prevents the engine emissions of the high-speed civil transport (HSCT) aircraft from being transported into the tropics and subsequently lifted into the upper atmosphere or mixed into the southern hemisphere. The model results show that the calculated ozone response to HSCT aircraft emissions using the K(sub yy), adjusted to observed mixing rates is substantially smaller than that simulated without the subtropical barrier.

Shia, R.-L.↗

NASA NTRS1998

Open Clusters as Laboratories: The Angular Momentum Evolution of Young Stars

The core group concentrated on three primary research topics: (1) ROSAT observation of the coronal activity of low mass stars in young open clusters; (2) the determination of stellar ages and the determination of the timescale for dissipation of circumstellar disks around young stars; and (3) the determination of rotation velocities of low mass stars in young open cluster and the inferred angular momentum evolution of low mass stars. With accurate ages for the clusters, we can then derive an independent estimate of the timescale for debris disks to dissipate. As the second half of that project, we are using the Caltech/UC/NASA Keck telescopes to obtain spectra of brown dwarf candidates in a number of nearby, young open clusters, from which we can determine new and accurate cluster ages. The final primary program that we have addressed was the determination of rotational velocities for low mass stars in our target open clusters. Our group has obtained rotational velocities for a large number of stars in several open clusters during this LTSA program, and we have published the results in several papers. One particularly time-consuming aspect of our program was the development of a database of the photometry and rotational velocities for nearby open clusters, which we have made available to the community.

Stauffer, John R.↗

NASA NTRS1998

Recovery of 29 Second Oscillations in Hubble Space Telescope Eclipse Observations of the Cataclysmic Variable UX Ursae Majoris

Low-amplitude (approximately 0.5%) 29 s oscillations have been detected in Hubble Space Telescope Faint Object Spectrograph eclipse observations of the nova-like cataclysmic variable UX UMa. These are the same dwarf nova-type oscillations that were originally discovered in this system in 1972. The 29 s oscillations are seen in one pair of eclipse sequences obtained with the FOS/PRISM in 1994 November but not in a similar pair obtained with the FOS/GI60L grating in August of the same year. The oscillations in the PRISM data are sinusoidal to within the small observational errors and undergo an approximately - 360' phase shift during eclipses (i.e., one cycle is lost). The amplitudes are highest at pre-eclipse orbital phases and exhibit a rather gradual eclipse whose shape is roughly similar to, although perhaps slightly narrower than, LTX UMa's overall light curve in the PRISM bandpass (2000-8000 A). Spectra of the oscillations have been constructed from pre-, mid, and post-eclipse data segments of the November observations. The spectra obtained from the out-of-eclipse segments are extremely blue, and only lower limits can be placed on the temperature of the source that dominates the modulated flux at these orbital phases. Lower limits derived from blackbody (stellar atmosphere) model fits to these data are >or equal to 95,000 K (> or equal to 85,000 K); the corresponding upper limits on the projected area of this source are all less than 2% of the white dwarf (WD) surface area. By contrast, oscillation spectra derived from mid- eclipse data segments are much redder. Fits to these spectra yield temperature estimates in the range 20,000 K approximately greater T and T approximately less than 30,000 K for both blackbody and stellar atmosphere models and corresponding projected areas of a few percent of the WD surface area. These estimates are subject to revision if the modulated emission is optically thin. We suggest that the ultimate source of the oscillations is a hot, compact region near disk center, but that a significant fraction of the observed, modulated flux is due to reprocessing of the light emitted by this source in the accretion disk atmosphere. The compact source is occulted at orbital phases near mid-eclipse, leaving only part of the more extended reprocessing region(s) to produce the weak oscillations that persist even at conjunction. The highly sinusoidal oscillation pulse shape does not permit the identification of the compact comonent in this model with emission produced by a rotating disturbance in the inner disk or in a classical, equatorial boundary layer. Instead, this component could arise in a bright spot on the surface of the WD, possibly associated with a magnetic pole. However, a standard intermediate polar model can also be ruled out since UX UMa's oscillation period has been seen to change on timescales much shorter than the minimum timescale required to spin up the WD by accretion torques. A model invoking magnetically controlled accretion onto differentially rotating WD surface layers may be viable, but needs more theoretical work.

Knigge, Christian↗

NASA NTRS1999

The Spectral Evolution of Gamma-Ray Bursts

The proposed project was a continuation of our work on the spectral evolution of gamma-ray bursts begun when the Co-I on this proposal. Lyle Ford, was my graduate student. In the proposal we discussed two projects. The first was finishing and publishing the last chapter of Professor Ford's thesis. In this research effort we looked for correlations in the energies of pairs of counts recorded by the BATSE Spectroscopy Detectors within a short time of each other. A greater correlation within a short time would indicate that the observed broadband spectrum is really composed of narrowband spectral components which last for a short time and which rapidly sum to the observed spectrum. We did not find any evidence for such narrowband emission, and are setting limits on its presence. Professor Ford is revising the last chapter of his thesis for publication with my participation. The second project was a continuation of my study of the cross-correlations between the gamma-ray burst lightcurves in different energy bands. I published a first study with this technique (1997. Ap.J., 486, 928) which showed that "hard-to-soft" spectral evolution is prevalent both within and between the bursts' intensity spikes. I proposed to continue developing this technique. However, I have been somewhat disillusioned about using this methodology quantitatively since it averages the spectral evolution on a given timescale over the entire burst. Nonetheless, I have been applying the technique to new bursts which are scientifically interesting for other reasons. Attached I include the cross-correlations for the burst GRB 990123, the burst during which ROTSE discovered an optical transient. The solid curve is the autocorrelatl'on of BATSE's channel 3 (100-300 keV), while the dashed, dot-dashed and 3 dots-dashed curves are the crosscorrelations of channel 3 with channels 1 (25-50 keV), 2 (50-100 keV), and 4 (300-2000 keV). The order of, and separation between, the curves on the positive lag side indicate "hard-to-soft" evolution on all timescales, while the FWHM of the crosscorrelations shows that the intensity spikes are narrower at high energy than at low energy. I have also been participating with my colleague on the BATSE team on other spectral evolution studies. Note that while I continue as a member of the BATSE team, I no longer receive funding from the team. For example, Preece et al. (1998, Ap.J., 496, 849) showed that the high energy spectral index varies during a burst, usually following a "hard-to-soft" trend. In addition, we have just submitted a catalog (Preece et al. 1999, Ap. J., submitted) of time-resolved spectral fits.

Band, David L.↗

NASA NTRS1999

Low Luminosity States of the Black Hole Candidate GX 339-4: Timing Analysis - 2

Here we present timing analysis of a set of eight Rossi X-ray Timing Explorer (RXTE) observations of the black hole candidate GX 339-4 that were taken during its hard/low state. On long time scales, the RXTE All Sky Monitor data reveal evidence of a 240 day periodicity, comparable to timescales expected from warped, precessing accretion disks. On short timescales all observations save one show evidence of a persistent f(qpo approximately equals 0.3 Hz quasi-periodic oscillations (QPO)). The broad band (10 (exp -3) to 10 (exp2) Hz) power appears to be dominated by two independent processes that can be modeled as very broad Lorentzians with Q approximately less than - 1. The coherence function between soft and hard photon variability shows that if these are truly independent processes, then they are individually coherent, but they are incoherent with one another. This is evidenced by the fact that the coherence function between the hard and soft variability is near unity between 5 x 10 (exp -3) but shows evidence of a dip at f approximately equals 1 Hz. This is the region of overlap between the broad Lorentzian fits to the Power Spectral Density (PSD). Similar to Cyg X-1, the coherence also drops dramatically at frequencies approximately greater than 1O Hz. Also similar to Cyg X-1, the hard photon variability is seen to lag the soft photon variability with the lag time increasing with decreasing Fourier frequency. The magnitude of this time lag appears to be positively correlated with the flux of GX 339-4. We discuss all of these observations in light of current theoretical models of both black hole spectra and temporal variability.

Nowak, Michael A.↗

NASA NTRS1997

ERS satellite microwave radar observations of Antarctic sea-ice dynamics

ERS-1 and ERS-2 scatterometer and synthetic aperture radar (SAR) data are used to monitor and track large and small scale sea ice dynamics in the Southern Ocean, and in particular in the Weddell Sea, Antarctica. Sea ice formation in the Weddell Sea regulates vertical and horizontal thermohaline circulation and influences bottom water production rates. Significant seasonal to interannual variability is observed in the sea ice drift dynamics. Coupled model simulations reproduce this variability and indicate that there is significant interannual variability in Weddelll Sea ice formation, drifts and extent on the El Nino southern oscillation (ENSO) timescale, with a period of approximately eight years. Changes in ice dynamics on these timescales regulate the amount of sea ice divergence and polynya formation. Anomalies in the timing and duration of the opening of the Ronne ice shelf polynya system are closely related to the variability in outflow of Weddell Sea bottom water measured at Joinville Island.

Drinkwater, Mark R.↗

NASA NTRS1999

Optical Variability of Blazars

In this paper we show the results of our monitoring the flux variability of 15 blazars, within the redshift range of 0.07 to 2.06, all with a visual magnitude range between 14 and 20 mag. Because blazars have displayed variability on diverse timescales, we have chosen to study them over both short and long timescales, ranging from minutes to years. These blazars were observed on 58 nights between March 1995 and June 1998. Individual sources are discussed in detail. For example, one of our sources, Mkn5Ol showed microvariability of as much as 0.13 mag change within 12 minutes. The usual parameters for size, mass, and luminosity are calculated. Relativistic beaming is implied by the data. We also searched for correlations between amplitude of variability, redshift, and luminosity. We found few if any such correlations. Discussion and conclusions are given for these and other results as implied by the data.

Ghosh, K. K.↗

NASA NTRS1999

A Plasma Instability Theory of Gamma-Ray Burst Emission

A plasma instability theory is presented for the prompt radiation from gamma-ray bursts. In the theory, a highly relativistic shell interacts with the interstellar medium through the filamentation and the two-stream instabilities to convert bulk kinetic energy into electron thermal energy and magnetic field energy. The processes are not efficient enough to satisfy the Rankine-Hugoniot conditions, so a shock cannot form through this mechanism. Instead, the interstellar medium passes through the shell, with the electrons radiating during this passage. Gamma-rays are produced by synchrotron self-Compton emission. Prompt optical emission is also produced through this mechanism, while prompt radio emission is produced through synchrotron emission. The model timescales are consistent with the shortest burst timescales. To emit gamma-rays, the shell's bulk Lorentz factor must be $\simg 10(exp 3)$. For the radiative processes to be efficient, the interstellar medium density must satisfy a lower limit that is a function of the bulk Lorentz factor. Because the limits operate as selection effects, bursts that violate them constitute new classes. In particular, a class of optical and ultraviolet bursts with no gamma-ray emission should exist. The lower limit on the density of the interstellar medium is consistent with the requirements of the Compton attenuation theory, providing an explanation for why all burst spectra appear to be attenuated. Several tests of the theory are discussed, as are the next theoretical investigations that should be conducted.

Brainerd, Jerome J.↗

NASA NTRS1998

Transport Between the Tropical and Midlatitude Lower Statosphere: Implications for Ozone Response to High-Speed Civil Transport Emissions

Several recent studies have quantified the air exchange rate between the tropics and midlatitudes in the lower stratosphere using airborne and satellite measurements of chemical species. It is found that the midlatitude air is mixed into the tropical lower stratosphere with a replacement timescale of 13.5 months (with 20% uncertainty) for the region from the tropopause to 21 km and at least 18 months for the region of 20-28 km. These estimates are used to adjust the horizontal eddy diffusion coefficients, K(sub yy), in a two-dimensional chemistry transport model. The value of K(sub yy) previously used to simulate the subtropical barrier, 0.03 x 10(exp 6) sq m/s, generates an exchange time of about 4 years, and the model without subtropical barrier (K(sub yy) = 0.3 x 10(exp 6) sq m/s) has an exchange time of 5 months. Adjusting the K(sub yy) to 0.13 x 10(exp 6) sq m/s from the tropopause to 21 km and 0.07 x 10(exp 6) sq m/s above 21 km produces the exchange timescales which match the estimates deduced from the measurements. The subtropical barrier prevents the engine emissions of the high-speed civil transport (HSCT) aircraft from being transported into the tropics and subsequently lifted into the upper atmosphere or mixed into the southern hemisphere. The model results show that the calculated ozone response to HSCT aircraft emissions using the K(sob yy) adjusted to observed mixing rates is substantially smaller than that simulated without the subtropical barrier.

Shia, R.-L.↗

NASA NTRS2000

Optical Variability of Blazars

In this paper we show the results of our monitoring the flux variability of 15 blazars, within the redshift range of 0.07 - 2.06, all with a visual magnitude range between 14 and 20 mag. Because blazars have displayed variability on diverse timescales, we have chosen to study them over both short and long timescales, ranging from minutes to years. These blazars were observed on 58 nights between 1995 March and 1998 June. Individual sources are discussed in detail. For example, one of our sources, Mrk 501, showed microvariability of as much as 0.13 mag change within 12 minutes. The usual parameters for size, mass, and luminosity are calculated. Relativistic beaming is implied by the data. We also searched for correlations between amplitude of variability, redshift, and luminosity. We found few, if any, such correlations. Discussion and conclusions are given for these and other results as implied by the data.

Ghosh, K. K.↗

NASA NTRS2000

The Intensity Distribution of Faint Gamma-Ray Bursts Detected with BATSE

We have recently completed a search of 6 years of archival BATSE data for gamma-ray bursts (GRBS) that were too faint to activate the real-time burst detection system running on board the spacecraft. These "nontriggered" bursts can be combined with the "triggered" bursts detected on board to produce a GRB intensity distribution that reaches peak fluxes a factor of approximately 2 lower than could be studied previously. The value of the statistic (in Euclidean space) for the bursts we detect is 0.177 plus or minus 0.006. This surprisingly low value is obtained because we detected very few bursts on the 4.096 s and 8.192 s timescales (where most bursts have their highest signal-to-noise ratio) that were not already detected on the 1.024 s timescale. If allowance is made for a power-law distribution of intrinsic peak luminosities, the extended peak flux distribution is consistent with models in which the redshift distribution of the gamma-ray burst rate approximately traces the star formation history of the universe. We argue that this class of models is preferred over those in which the burst rate is independent of redshift. We use the peak flux distribution to derive a limit of 10% (99% confidence) on the fraction of the total burst rate that could be contributed by a spatially homogeneous (in Euclidean space) subpopulation of burst sources, such as type lb/c supernovae. These results lend support to the conclusions of previous studies predicting that relatively few faint "classical" GRBs will be found below the BATSE onboard detection threshold.

Kommers, Jefferson M.↗

NASA NTRS2000

RXTE Observations of the Seyfert 2 Galaxy MrK 348

We present RXTE monitoring observations of the Seyfert 2 galaxy Mrk 348 spanning a 6 month period. The time-averaged spectrum in the 3-20 keV band shows many features characteristic of a Compton-thin Seyfert 2 galaxy, namely a hard underlying power-law continuum (Gamma approximately equal 1.8) with heavy soft X-ray absorption (N(sub H) approximately 10(exp 23)/sq cm) plus measurable iron K.alpha emission (equivalent width approximately 100 eV) and, at high energy, evidence for a reflection component (R approximately < 1). During the first half of the monitoring period the X-ray continuum flux from Mrk 348 remained relatively steady. However this was followed by a significant brightening of the source (by roughly a factor of 4) with the fastest change corresponding to a doubling of its X-ray flux on a timescale of about 20 days. The flux increase was accompanied by a marked softening of X-ray spectrum most likely attributable to a factor approximately 3 decline in the intrinsic line-of-sight column density. In contrast the iron K.alpha line and the reflection components showed no evidence of variability. These observations suggest a scenario in which the central X-ray source is surrounded by a patchy distribution of absorbing material located within about a light-week of the nucleus of Mrk 348. The random movement of individual clouds within the absorbing screen, across our line of sight, produces substantial temporal variations in the measured column density on timescales of weeks to months and gives rise to the observed X-ray spectral variability. However, as viewed from the nucleus the global coverage and typical thickness of the cloud layer remains relatively constant.

Smith, David A.↗

NASA NTRS2000

The Combined Influence of Molecular Weight and Temperature on the Aging and Viscoelastic Response of a Glassy Thermoplastic Polyimide

The effect of molecular weight on the viscoelastic performance of an advanced polymer (LaRC-SI) was investigated through the use of creep compliance tests. Testing consisted of short-term isothermal creep and recovery with the creep segments performed under constant load. The tests were conducted at three temperatures below the glass transition temperature of five materials of different molecular weight. Through the use of time-aging-time superposition procedures, the material constants, material master curves and aging-related parameters were evaluated at each temperature for a given molecular weight. The time-temperature superposition technique helped to describe the effect of temperature on the timescale of the viscoelastic response of each molecular weight. It was shown that the low molecular weight materials have higher creep compliance and creep rate, and are more sensitive to temperature than the high molecular weight materials. Furthermore, a critical molecular weight transition was observed to occur at a weight-average molecular weight of M (bar) (sub w) 25000 g/mol below which, the temperature sensitivity of the time-temperature superposition shift factor increases rapidly. The short-term creep compliance data were used in association with Struik's effective time theory to predict the long-term creep compliance behavior for the different molecular weights. At long timescales, physical aging serves to significantly decrease the creep compliance and creep rate of all the materials tested.

Nicholson, Lee M.↗

NASA NTRS2000

X-ray Emission from Pre-Main-Sequence Stars - Testing the Solar Analogy

This LTSA award funded my research on the origin of stellar X-ray emission and the validity of the solar-stellar analogy. This research broadly addresses the relevance of our current understanding of solar X-ray physics to the interpretation of X-ray emission from stars in general. During the past five years the emphasis has been on space-based X-ray observations of very young stars in star-forming regions (T Tauri stars and protostars), cool solar-like G stars, and evolved high-mass Wolf-Rayet (WR) stars. These observations were carried out primarily with the ASCA and ROSAT space-based observatories (and most recently with Chandra), supplemented by ground-based observations. This research has focused on the identification of physical processes that are responsible for the high levels of X-ray emission seen in pre-main-sequence (PMS) stars, active cool stars, and WR stars. A related issue is how the X-ray emission of such stars changes over time, both on short timescales of days to years and on evolutionary timescales of millions of years. In the case of the Sun it is known that magnetic fields play a key role in the production of X-rays by confining the coronal plasma in loop-like structures where it is heated to temperatures of several million K. The extent to which the magnetically-confined corona interpretation can be applied to other X-ray emitting stars is the key issue that drives the research summarized here.

Skinner, Stephen L.↗