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DOE OSTI2020

Using onset times from frequent seismic surveys to understand fluid flow at the Peace River Field, Canada

With our limited knowledge of the relationship between changes in the state of an aquifer or reservoir and the corresponding changes in the elastic moduli, that is the rock physics model, hampers the effective use of time-lapse seismic observations for estimating flow properties within the Earth. A central problem is the complicated dependence of the magnitude of time-lapse changes on the saturation, pressure, and temperature changes within an aquifer or reservoir. We describe an inversion methodology for reservoir characterization that uses onset times, the calendar time of the change in seismic attributes, rather than the magnitude of the changes. We find that onset times are much less sensitive than magnitudes to the rock physics model used to relate time-lapse observations to changes in saturation, temperature and fluid pressure. We apply the inversion scheme to observations from daily monitoring of enhanced oil recovery at the Peace River field in Canada. An array of 1492 buried hydrophones record seismic signals from 49 buried sources. Time-shifts for elastic waves traversing the reservoir are extracted from the daily time-lapse cubes. In our analysis 175 images of time-shifts are transformed into a single map of onset times, leading to a substantial reduction in the volume of data. These observations are used in conjunction with bottom hole pressure data to infer the initial conditions prior to the injection, and to update the reservoir permeability model. The combination of a global and local inversion scheme produces a collection of reservoir models that are best described by three clusters. The updated model leads to a nearly 70 percent reduction in seismic data misfit. The final set of solutions successfully predict the observed normalized pressure history during the soak and flow-back into the wells between 82 and 175 days into the cyclic steaming operation.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Parallel Multigrid in Time and Space for Extreme-Scale Computational Science: Chaotic and Hyperbolic Problems

The coming massive parallelism of exascale computing presents a pressing challenge for the many DOE simulations of time-dependent partial differential equations (PDEs), which typically use traditional sequential time stepping methods. Since this traditional approach is inherently serial, it presents a sequential bottleneck when moving to exascale computing, because future performance gains will come through greater concurrency, not faster clock speeds. Thus, the goal of this work is to research parallelism in time, i.e., methods that compute multiple time values simultaneously, not sequentially. The focus will be on hyperbolic and chaotic problems of interest to DOE, with the goal of enabling scalable simulations of time-dependent hyperbolic and chaotic problems on future architectures. The chosen methodology for solving these problems parallel-in-time is multigrid, because multigrid (when it works) is a powerful, optimal, and scalable solver for discretized PDEs. Multigrid is already commonly used in many DOE simulations for scalably and optimally solving space-only PDE problems. The areas of hyperbolic and chaotic problems are chosen because of their relevance to problems of programmatic interest to DOE. However, these problems are also well-known to be difficult for parallelin-time methods, with the most common method, parareal, diverging in many cases. The current stateof-the-art for parallel-in-time at LLNL is the multigrid reduction in time (MGRIT) XBraid package, which also struggles for such problems, while still showing some improvement over parareal. In summary, new methods are needed for an efficient parallel-in-time scheme for hyperbolic and chaotic problems, and this work shall research promising new multigrid methods in this area. In particular, we take inspiration from the Least Squares Shadowing (LSS by Wang) approach for solving chaotic problems. Here, an optimization approach is able to find “well-conditioned” shadow trajectories/solutions to the original “ill-conditioned” chaotic problem. Thus, the new multigrid methods researched here also arise in an optimization context.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Comparing computational times for simulations when using PBPK model template and stand-alone implementations of PBPK models

Introduction We previously developed a PBPK model template that consists of a single model “superstructure” with equations and logic found in many physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) models. Using the template, one can implement PBPK models with different combinations of structures and features. Methods To identify factors that influence computational time required for PBPK model simulations, we conducted timing experiments using various implementations of PBPK models for dichloromethane and chloroform, including template and stand-alone implementations, and simulating four different exposure scenarios. For each experiment, we measured the required computational time and evaluated the impacts of including various model features (e.g., number of output variables calculated) and incorporating various design choices (e.g., different methods for estimating blood concentrations). Results We observed that model implementations that treat body weight and dependent quantities as constant (fixed) parameters can result in a 30% time savings compared with options that treat body weight and dependent quantities as time-varying. We also observed that decreasing the number of state variables by 36% in our PBPK model template led to a decrease of 20–35% in computational time. Other factors, such as the number of output variables, the method for implementing conditional statements, and the method for estimating blood concentrations, did not have large impacts on simulation time. In general, simulations with PBPK model template implementations of models required more time than simulations with stand-alone implementations, but the flexibility and (human) time savings in preparing and reviewing a model implemented using the PBPK model template may justify the increases in computational time requirements. Conclusion Our findings concerning how PBPK model design and implementation decisions impact computational speed can benefit anyone seeking to develop, improve, or apply a PBPK model, with or without the PBPK model template.

Bernstein, Amanda S.↗

DOE OSTI2023

Interface flux recovery framework for constructing partitioned heterogeneous time-integration methods

A common approach for the development of partitioned schemes employing different time integrators on different subdomains is to lag the coupling terms in time. This can lead to accuracy issues, especially in multistage methods. Here, in this article, we present a novel framework for partitioned heterogeneous time-integration methods, which allows the coupling of arbitrary multistage and multistep methods without reducing their order of accuracy. At the core of our approach are accurate estimates of the interface flux obtained from the Schur complement of an auxiliary monolithic system. We use these estimates to construct a polynomial-in-time approximation of the interface flux over the current time coupling window. This approximation provides the interface boundary conditions necessary to decouple the subdomain problems at any point within the coupling window. In so doing our framework enables a flexible choice of time-integrators for the individual subproblems without compromising the time-accuracy at the coupled problem level. This feature is the main distinction between our framework and other approaches. To demonstrate the framework, we construct a family of partitioned heterogeneous time-integration methods, combining multistage and multistep methods, for a simplified tracer transport component of the coupled air-sea system in Earth system models. We report numerical tests evaluating accuracy and flux conservation for different pairs of time-integrators from the explicit Runge-Kutta and Adams-Moulton families.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2023

Multigrid Reduction in Time for Chaotic Dynamical Systems

As CPU clock speeds have stagnated and high performance computers continue to have ever higher core counts, increased parallelism is needed to take advantage of these new architectures. Traditional serial time-marching schemes can be a significant bottleneck, as many types of simulations require large numbers of time-steps which must be computed sequentially. Parallel-in-time schemes, such as the Multigrid Reduction in Time (MGRIT) method, remedy this by parallelizing across time-steps and have shown promising results for parabolic problems. However, chaotic problems have proved more difficult, since chaotic initial value problems (IVPs) are inherently ill-conditioned. MGRIT relies on a hierarchy of successively coarser time-grids to iteratively correct the solution on the finest time-grid, but due to the nature of chaotic systems, small inaccuracies on the coarser levels can be greatly magnified and lead to poor coarse-grid corrections. Here we introduce a modified MGRIT algorithm based on an existing quadratically converging nonlinear extension to the multigrid Full Approximation Scheme (FAS), as well as a novel time-coarsening scheme. Together, these approaches better capture long-term chaotic behavior on coarse-grids and greatly improve convergence of MGRIT for chaotic IVPs. Further, we introduce a novel low-memory variant of the algorithm for solving chaotic PDEs with MGRIT which not only solves the IVP, but also provides estimates for the unstable Lyapunov vectors of the system. Finally, we provide supporting numerical results for the Lorenz system and demonstrate parallel speedup for the chaotic Kuramoto–Sivashinsky PDE over a significantly longer time-domain than in previous works.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2024

A prototype scintillator real‐time beam monitor for ultra‐high dose rate radiotherapy

Background: FLASH Radiotherapy (RT) is an emergent cancer RT modality where an entire therapeutic dose is delivered at more than 1000 times higher dose rate than conventional RT. For clinical trials to be conducted safely, a precise and fast beam monitor that can generate out-of-tolerance beam interrupts is required. This paper describes the overall concept and provides results from a prototype ultra-fast, scintillator-based beam monitor for both proton and electron beam FLASH applications. Purpose: A FLASH Beam Scintillator Monitor (FBSM) is being developed that employs a novel proprietary scintillator material. The FBSM has capabilities that conventional RT detector technologies are unable to simultaneously provide: (1) large area coverage; (2) a low mass profile; (3) a linear response over a broad dynamic range; (4) radiation hardness; (5) real-time analysis to provide an IEC-compliant fast beam-interrupt signal based on true two-dimensional beam imaging, radiation dosimetry and excellent spatial resolution. Methods: The FBSM uses a proprietary low mass, less than 0.5 mm water equivalent, non-hygroscopic, radiation tolerant scintillator material (designated HM: hybrid material) that is viewed by high frame rate CMOS cameras. Folded optics using mirrors enable a thin monitor profile of ∼10 cm. A field programmable gate array (FPGA) data acquisition system generates real-time analysis on a time scale appropriate to the FLASH RT beam modality: 100–1000 Hz for pulsed electrons and 10–20 kHz for quasi-continuous scanning proton pencil beams. An ion beam monitor served as the initial development platform for this work and was tested in low energy heavy-ion beams ( 86 Kr +26 and protons). A prototype FBSM was fabricated and then tested in various radiation beams that included FLASH level dose per pulse electron beams, and a hospital RT clinic with electron beams. Results: Results presented in this report include image quality, response linearity, radiation hardness, spatial resolution, and real-time data processing. Furthermore, the HM scintillator was found to be highly radiation damage resistant. It exhibited a small 0.025%/kGy signal decrease from a 216 kGy cumulative dose resulting from continuous exposure for 15 min at a FLASH compatible dose rate of 237 Gy/s. Measurements of the signal amplitude versus beam fluence demonstrate linear response of the FBSM at FLASH compatible dose rates of >40 Gy/s. Comparison with commercial Gafchromic film indicates that the FBSM produces a high resolution 2D beam image and can reproduce a nearly identical beam profile, including primary beam tails. The spatial resolution was measured at 35–40 µm. Tests of the firmware beta version show successful operation at 20 000 Hz frame rate or 50 µs/frame, where the real-time analysis of the beam parameters is achieved in less than 1 µs. Conclusions: The FBSM is designed to provide real-time beam profile monitoring over a large active area without significantly degrading the beam quality. A prototype device has been staged in particle beams at currents of single particles up to FLASH level dose rates, using both continuous ion beams and pulsed electron beams. Using a novel scintillator, beam profiling has been demonstrated for currents extending from single particles to 10 nA currents. Radiation damage is minimal and even under FLASH conditions would require ≥50 kGy of accumulated exposure in a single spot to result in a 1% decrease in signal output. Beam imaging is comparable to radiochromic films, and provides immediate images without hours of processing. Real-time data processing, taking less than 50 µs (combined data transfer and analysis times), has been implemented in firmware for 20 kHz frame rates for continuous proton beams.

2D beam imaging↗

DOE OSTI2020

An error-controlled adaptive time-stepping method for particle advancement in coupled CFD-DEM simulations

Coupled Computational-Fluid-Dynamics (CFD) and Discrete-Element-Method (DEM) models provide an accurate description of multiphase physical systems where a solid granular particle phase exists in an underlying gaseous continuous medium. The time integration of the granular phase in these simulations is typically handled using an explicit scheme with a constant time-step among all particles that is invariant in time to resolve inter-particle collisions. A locally third-order accurate adaptive time integration technique for particles that employs an embedded locally second-order scheme for error determination is presented in this work. The particle time-step size is dynamically adapted based on solution error, thus leading to significant savings in computational time. The efficacy of our scheme is quantified using four test cases of varying complexity (binary collision, homogeneous cooling system, fluidized bed and hopper discharge). The adaptive time-stepping method exhibits improved performance (~ 2–3 times in most of the cases studied) compared to three commonly used non-adaptive time-step methods (first-order Euler-explicit, second-order Adams-Bashforth and third-order Runge-Kutta schemes), while maintaining the same level of accuracy and parallel scalability.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2021

Assessing the sequestration time scales of some ocean-based carbon dioxide reduction strategies

Abstract Ocean-based carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) removal (CDR) strategies are an important part of the portfolio of approaches needed to achieve negative greenhouse gas emissions. Many ocean-based CDR strategies rely on injecting CO 2 or organic carbon (that will eventually become CO 2 ) into the ocean interior, or enhancing the ocean’s biological pump. These approaches will not result in permanent sequestration, because ocean currents will eventually return the injected CO 2 back to the surface, where it will be brought into equilibrium with the atmosphere. Here, a model of steady state global ocean circulation and mixing is used to assess the time scales over which CO 2 injected in the ocean interior remains sequestered from the atmosphere. There will be a distribution of sequestration times for any single discharge location due to the infinite number of pathways connecting a location at depth with the sea surface. The resulting probability distribution is highly skewed with a long tail of very long transit times, making mean sequestration times much longer than typical time scales. Deeper discharge locations will sequester purposefully injected CO 2 much longer than shallower ones and median sequestration times are typically decades to centuries, and approach 1000 years in the deep North Pacific. Large differences in sequestration times occur both within and between the major ocean basins, with the Pacific and Indian basins generally having longer sequestration times than the Atlantic and Southern Oceans. Assessments made over a 50 year time horizon illustrates that most of the injected carbon will be retained for injection depths greater than 1000 m, with several geographic exceptions such as the Western North Atlantic. Ocean CDR strategies that increase upper ocean ecosystem productivity with the goal of exporting more carbon to depth will have mainly a short-term influence on atmospheric CO 2 levels because ∼70% will be transported back to the surface ocean within 50 years. The results presented here will help plan appropriate ocean CDR strategies that can help limit climate damage caused by fossil fuel CO 2 emissions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Development of Real-Time High-Density Pulsar Data Transmission and Processing for Grid Synchronization

Taking advantage of the extreme stability of the pulsar period, it can serve as the timing source for grid synchronization to compensate for the timing drift instigated by the loss of GPS signal. Nevertheless, the real-time transmission and processing of the pulsar data suffer from its high-frequency data rate, varying from megahertz to gigahertz, resulting in reduced computing speed and increased time delay. To mitigate this issue, the hardware and software frameworks are implemented for the high-density pulsar data transmission and processing for grid synchronization in this research. Initially, the high-density pulsar data is transferred using open-source software. The complementary duty cycle timing module is designed to coordinate the operation of the dual-channel high-speed interface and software. Subsequently, the multiple-threading is applied to the receiving, parsing, and splicing pulsar data. Next, the pulsar signal extraction method is implemented based on the polyphase filterbank and time of arrival estimation. Ultimately, real-time performance verification experiments are carried out for different components under two hardware platforms. Finally, the results demonstrate that only 0.482 s is required for processing 4 Gigabyte data through multiple-threading, which is 3.8 times faster than the single thread. The pulsar signal extraction can also be executed within 707 ms for 4.8 seconds of data, thereby indicating that real-time requirements can be met.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2021

Implementation of quantum key distribution and quantum clock synchronization via time bin encoding

Quantum key distribution allows for a provably secure transmission of cryptographic keys over an optical channel. Encoded polarization states or time-bin degree of freedom have been used for successful demonstrations. However, photon losses in long fibers, slow single photon detectors, and detector dark counts significantly limit the overall bit rate. Improving key throughput and reducing the overhead of key reconciliation remain as major challenges. Methods which utilize multiple time bins allow for multiple key bits to be encoded in a single photon, thus increasing the fidelity of transmitted keys and decreasing the overhead of key reconciliation in real-world conditions. Previous implementations of these methods required that Alice and Bob share a time reference by sharing a dedicated classical channel used for synchronization. This work presents a technique that allows two parties to exchange time-bin encoded photons without the need for synchronized time references. Our technique uses a framing protocol which allows Alice to encode a time reference along with a key which is determined by Alice before transmission. Security can be achieved by monitoring the visibility of a pair of Franson interferometers, using decoy pulses and measuring the round trip time between Alice and Bob. The bit rate of this technique is limited only by the recovery time of the detector and the speed of the modulation electronics. We experimentally demonstrate a raw bit rate of 5Mb/s over an optical channel with 55dB of loss, which is competitive with current research. We also demonstrate absolute timing synchronization with an accuracy of 20ps.

encryption↗

DOE OSTI2021

Stochastic Continuous-time Flexibility Scheduling and Pricing in Wholesale Electricity Markets

Large-scale integration of intermittent renewable energy sources (RES) is calling for additional flexibility resources as well as more advanced modeling and optimization techniques to account for the increasing uncertainty and variability in power systems operation. As the RES integration gains momentum, the magnitude and frequency of their variations increase, which may trigger ramping scarcity events in real-time power systems operation. This necessitates revisiting the present definition of power systems flexibility and reserve services to reflect their robustness and adequacy towards sub-interval variations of the load and RES, as well as adjusting the operation models to accommodate the new reserve services. This project took a fundamental approach and aimed at developing continuous-time scheduling and pricing model that accurately models the continuous-time variations of load and RES and efficiently deploys the ramping capability of flexible resources to compensate the sources of variability and uncertainty in the market. In this regard, this project pursued the following goals: Developing stochastic multi-fidelity continuous-time optimization models for scheduling of energy storage (ES) systems and flexible loads in wholesale energy markets; Developing the theory and practices of continuous-time locational marginal pricing for valuating energy storage systems and flexible loads in wholesale energy markets; Developing function space solution approach to convert the proposed stochastic multi-fidelity continuous-time optimization models into tractable mixed-integer linear optimization models; and Defining flexibility reserve as a new type of reserve in markets that would enable ultimate participation of energy storage devices in provision of services to compensate the variability and uncertainty of RES in electricity markets. This project successfully completed all five major tasks defined in the SOPO, and produced 8 high-impact journal papers, 6 conference papers, 3 published U.S. patents, and one web-based software for continuous-time operation optimization of power systems. The application of the proposed flexibility reserve and the stochastic multi-fidelity continuous-time operation scheduling models would modify the forward commitment and schedule of generating units, ES devices and flexible loads, and would line up the resources in such a way that the composition of available resources is better prepared to respond to the sub-hourly variations of the load and renewable resources in real-time operation. Therefore, this project paves the way to sustainable, reliable, and economic integration of renewable energy resources in power system, supporting the progress towards reaching the national targets on energy independence. Even if the proposed models offers a radically different point of view as compared to existing models, it does not alter fundamentally the architecture of power systems operations, nor the complexity of the scheduling problem, so the integration of this project in power systems is extremely practical.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2020

An Improved Model For Determining Salinity Recharge Time for Deep Borehole Disposal - 20405

In a previous publication (K. P. Travis, D. Burley and F. G. F. Gibb, WM2017 Conference, Phoenix Arizona paper no. 17480) we introduced a numerical model to estimate the time it would take for a pressure perturbation to subside following its creation from the construction of a deep geological borehole in water-saturated rock. The model was based on the notion of a point source of momentum - a solution of the time-dependent pressure-diffusion equation. Using the model, we estimated that it would take on the order of 10 k years for physical equilibrium to become re-established following the sinking of a 5 km borehole in granite. The significance of such a model is that it places an upper bound on the lifetime required of a borehole sealing system - a necessary input to a borehole post-closure safety case assessment. No engineered sealing system has ever been devised which is capable of retaining its sealing properties for 10 half-lives of long-lived radioisotopes in spent fuel or high-level waste. One of the key advantages of disposing of nuclear waste via Deep Borehole Disposal (DBD) is the natural sealing provided by density stratified groundwater. Upon sinking of a borehole, and subsequent filling with fresh water, brine or drilling mud, this natural barrier may be temporarily damaged. Over time, fresh brine from the far-field will flow towards or away from the hole (driven by a pressure gradient) and will eventually re-establish the original salinity gradient. It follows that the engineered seals need last only as long as the time required for this salinity gradient to reset itself. One of the limitations of our previous model was the use of a static boundary condition on the borehole wall. The model used a boundary pressure which varied quadratically with depth (arising from differences between the pressure of a column of fresh water in the borehole and that of a column of brine in the host rock). However as brine replaces fresh water in the borehole (driven by a pressure gradient), the boundary function must change with time. We now introduce an improved model which takes this time dependent boundary condition into account. The model also takes into account the time taken for a mixture of brine and fresh water to re-establish chemical equilibrium through the process of diffusion. The paper contains the mathematical details of our new iterative model as well as results showing the time taken to reach steady state, and concentration profiles for the components of the brine-filled borehole as a function of time together with a discussion on the implications of the results for developing a post-closure safety assessment for DBD. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2021

Enhanced Cross-Correlation Inter-Detector Timing

Inter-detector timing is one of the key steps for compositing signals obtained by multiple detectors. Conventionally this is done via inversing time gamma functions of individual detectors and then matching their times at the same gamma level. The applicability of the gamma inverse approach is often restricted to the monotonic gamma functions. This presentation presents a novel approach for inter-detector timing. This new approach introduced an enhanced cross-correlation of gamma values between two time intervals of two detectors. If this enhanced cross-correlation is close to 1, then both intervals should cover the same gamma segment of the signal. Consequently the time shift between the two detector can be derived from the time shift of the these two time intervals. This work will be presented at the 4th Annual Reaction History Analysis Workshop in North Las Vegas.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2022

The Epidermal Microbiome Within an Aggregation of Leopard Sharks ( Triakis semifasciata ) Has Taxonomic Flexibility with Gene Functional Stability Across Three Time-points

The epidermis of Chondrichthyan fishes consists of dermal denticles with production of minimal but protein-rich mucus that collectively, influence the attachment and biofilm development of microbes, facilitating a unique epidermal microbiome. Here, we use metagenomics to provide the taxonomic and functional characterization of the epidermal microbiome of the Triakis semifasciata (leopard shark) at three time-points collected across 4 years to identify links between microbial groups and host metabolism. Our aims include (1) describing the variation of microbiome taxa over time and identifying recurrent microbiome members (present across all time-points); (2) investigating the relationship between the recurrent and flexible taxa (those which are not found consistently across time-points); (3) describing the functional compositions of the microbiome which may suggest links with the host metabolism; and (4) identifying whether metabolic processes are shared across microbial genera or are unique to specific taxa. Microbial members of the microbiome showed high similarity between all individuals (Bray–Curtis similarity index = 82.7, where 0 = no overlap, 100 = total overlap) with the relative abundance of those members varying across sampling time-points, suggesting flexibility of taxa in the microbiome. One hundred and eighty-eight genera were identified as recurrent, including Pseudomonas, Erythrobacter, Alcanivorax, Marinobacter, and Sphingopxis being consistently abundant across time-points, while Limnobacter and Xyella exhibited switching patterns with high relative abundance in 2013, Sphingobium and Sphingomona in 2015, and Altermonas, Leeuwenhoekiella, Gramella, and Maribacter in 2017. Of the 188 genera identified as recurrent, the top 19 relatively abundant genera formed three recurrent groups. The microbiome also displayed high functional similarity between individuals (Bray–Curtis similarity index = 97.6) with gene function composition remaining consistent across all time-points. These results show that while the presence of microbial genera exhibits consistency across time-points, their abundances do fluctuate. Microbial functions however remain stable across time-points; thus, we suggest the leopard shark microbiomes exhibit functional redundancy. We show coexistence of microbes hosted in elasmobranch microbiomes that encode genes involved in utilizing nitrogen, but not fixing nitrogen, degrading urea, and resistant to heavy metal.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Bayes_Opt-SWMM: A Gaussian process-based Bayesian optimization tool for real-time flood modeling with SWMM

Real-time flood model plays a pivotal role in averting urban flood damage, particularly when there is minimal lead time for preparatory measures. However, urban flood modeling in real-time often contends with inherent uncertainties arising from input data uncertainty and parameter ambiguities. Here this study introduces a real-time calibration (RTC) tool called Bayes_Opt-SWMM, specifically tailored for real-time urban flood modeling and uncertainty optimization. This tool leverages the Gaussian process-based Bayesian optimization algorithm and interfaces seamlessly with the Stormwater Management Model (SWMM). It integrates real-time model forcing data and flood monitoring collected through sensors and gauges which are strategically placed within critical locations of urban drainage systems. Our approach hinges on the Surrogate Model based Uncertainty Optimization (SMUO) concept, providing an avenue for enhancing real-time flood modeling. Bayes_Opt-SWMM runs the optimization process using a surrogate model called Gaussian Process emulator with two inference methods: (1) the Gaussian Process (GP) model and (2) Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm in GP model (GP_MCMC). Furthermore, three acquisition functions, namely Expected Improvement (EI), Maximum Probability of Improvement (MPI), and Lower Confidence Bound (LCB), facilitate optimal parameter fitting within the surrogate models. The efficiency of GP-based surrogate models in learning SWMM model parameters, leads to an improved uncertainty quantification and accelerated real-time flood modeling in urban areas. Overall, Bayes_Opt-SWMM emerges as a cost-effective and valuable tool for real-time flood modeling and monitoring, with significant potential for managing intelligent storm water systems in urban environments.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Constraining Bedrock Groundwater Residence Times in a Mountain System With Environmental Tracer Observations and Bayesian Uncertainty Quantification

Groundwater residence time distributions provide fundamental insights on the hydrological processes within watersheds. Yet, observations that can constrain groundwater residence times over broad timescales remain scarce in mountain catchment studies. We use environmental tracers (CFC-12, SF 6 , 3 H, and 4 He) to investigate groundwater residence times along a hillslope in the East River Watershed, Colorado, USA. We develop a Bayesian inference framework that applies a Markov-chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approach to estimate noble gas recharge temperature, elevation, and excess-air parameters and the resulting environmental tracer concentrations. MCMC is then used to propagate the environmental tracer uncertainties to estimates of groundwater mean residence times inferred with lumped parameter models. All samples contain 3 H, CFC-12, and SF 6 in addition to terrigenic 4 He, suggesting a mixture of water characterized by modern and premodern residence times. 4He exponential mean residence times range from hundreds of years at the upslope well to thousands of years at the toe-slope well assuming average crustal production rates. We find that binary mixing residence time distributions with separate young and old mixing fractions are needed to predict the 4 He, CFC-12, SF 6 , and 3 H observations, supporting the importance of flow path mixing in this bedrock system. Our findings that the fractured bedrock hosts groundwater with a mixture of residence times ranging from decades to millennia suggest variable recharge dynamics and flow path mixing along the hillslope and highlight the importance of characterizing groundwater systems with observations that are sensitive to transport over a broad range of residence times.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Space-time crystals from particle-like topological solitons

Time crystals are unexpected states of matter that spontaneously break time-translation symmetry either in a discrete or continuous manner. However, spatially mesoscale space-time crystals that break both space and time symmetries have not been reported. Here we report a continuous space-time crystal in a nematic liquid crystal driven by ambient-power, constant-intensity unstructured light. Our numerically constructed four-dimensional configurations exhibit good agreement with these experimental findings. Although meeting the established criteria to identify time-crystalline order, both experiments and computer simulations reveal a space-time crystallization phase formed by particle-like topological solitons. The robustness against temporal perturbations and spatiotemporal dislocations shows the stability and rigidity of the studied space-time crystals, which relates to their locally topological nature and many-body interactions between emergent spontaneously twisted, particle-like solitonic building blocks. Their potential technological utility includes optical devices, photonic space-time crystal generators, telecommunications and anti-counterfeiting designs, among others.

Liquid crystals↗

DOE OSTI2020

RIFTA: A Robust Iterative Fourier Transform-based dwell time Algorithm for ultra-precision ion beam figuring of synchrotron mirrors

With the rapid evolution of synchrotron X-ray sources, the demand for high-precision X-ray mirrors has greatly increased. Single nanometer profile error is required to keep imaging capability at the diffraction limit. Ion Beam Figuring (IBF), as a highly deterministic surfacing technique, has been used for ultra-precision finishing of mirrors. One crucial step that guides the IBF process is dwell time calculation. A valid dwell time solution should be non-negative and duplicate the shape of the desired removal map. Another important aspect is to minimize the total dwell time. In this study, we propose a Robust Iterative Fourier Transform-based dwell time Algorithm (RIFTA) that automatically fulfills these requirements. First, the thresholded inverse filtering in Fourier transform-based deconvolution is stabilized and automated by optimizing the threshold value using the Nelder-Mead simplex algorithm. Second, a novel two-level iterative scheme is proposed to guarantee the minimized total dwell time with its non-negativity at each dwell point. Third, a bicubic resampling is employed to flexibly adapt the calculated dwell time map to any IBF process intervals. The performance of RIFTA is first studied with simulation, followed by a comparison with the other state-of-the-art dwell time algorithms. We then demonstrate with an experiment that, using the dwell time calculated by the RIFTA, the total dwell time is shortened by a factor of two and the RMS in a 5 × 50 mm clear aperture was reduced from 3.4 nm to 1.1 nm after one IBF run, which proves the effectiveness and the efficiency of the proposed algorithm.

42 ENGINEERING↗