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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Short-term solar radiation forecast using total sky imager via transfer learning

Ground-based sky cameras, which capture hemispherical images, have been extensively used for localized monitoring of clouds. This paper proposes a short-term forecasting approach based on transfer learning using Total Sky-Imager (TSI) images of the Southern Great Plains (SGP) site obtained from the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) dataset. An accurate estimation of solar irradiance using TSI is key for short-term solar energy generation forecasting and optimal energy consumption planning. We make use of deep neural network architectures such as AlexNet and ResNet-101 to extract the underlying deep convolution features from TSI images and then train using an ensemble learning approach to model and forecast solar radiation. We demonstrate the performance of the proposed approach by showcasing the best and worst cases. Thus, the transfer learning approach significantly reduces the time and resources required for modeling solar radiation. We outperform with reference to another state-of-art technique for solar modeling using TSI images at different forecast lead times.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Sequence-to-sequence neural networks for short-term electrical load forecasting in commercial office buildings

The U.S. power grid is transforming to become smarter, cleaner, and more effi- cient. This is leading to the addition of significant distributed variable renew- able generation. Due to the variable nature of renewable generation, the short- and long-term supply-demand imbalances are less predictable, and conventional approaches to mitigating the imbalance will not be efficient or cost-effective. To address this challenge, transactive control technologies have been proposed which balance energy generation and consumption with market activity and in- frastructural limitations. Transactive control requires the ability of individual end-use loads to express flexibility as a function of a transactive signal (e.g., price). Empirical gray- and black-box models have been widely used to express flexibility, and although these approaches are generally easy to construct and simple to use, they do not capture the non-linear behavior that some end-use loads represent . Machine learning approaches have been proposed to address this limitation. Although deep learning approaches for forecasting end-use loads have been explored, certain aspects of the application of deep models to load forecasting are not well understood. These aspects include how much training data is required, and how models should be structured and trained. To that end, this work explores how to approach applying deep recurrent neural networks to short-term electrical load forecasting with a case study of four commercial office buildings. We identify data requirements for training accurate models of whole building electricity use conditioned on outdoor temperature, provide insight into model hyperparameter sensitivity, and demonstrate how readily models can be generalized to unseen buildings.

Skomski, Elliott↗
DOE OSTI2024

Long-Term field testing of the accuracy and HVAC energy savings potential of occupancy presence sensors in A Single-Family home

The energy-saving potential of occupancy-centric smart thermostats has been extensively explored in simulations but lacked field testing for energy savings quantification and sensor performance assessment in real buildings. This paper presents a long-term field study conducted in a single-family home in Texas, U.S. to evaluate the performance of occupancy-centric controls (OCC) of HVAC (heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning) system in terms of energy savings, sensor accuracy, and impact on electric peak demand. The test site was equipped with a commercial off-the-shelf (COTS) smart thermostat and multiple occupancy presence sensors for OCC implementation. Additionally, a sub-metering system was installed to monitor electricity consumption of various end-use equipment, including the HVAC system. A supplementary device was installed to track the ground-truth occupancy for the accuracy evaluation of the occupancy presence sensor. Scenarios of baseline and OCC controls were alternated weekly over the 20-month testing period. The results indicated an effective OCC execution, as evidenced by indoor temperature profiles. During the 2023 cooling season, OCC achieved total energy savings of 1,958 kWh, corresponding to a 17.6% energy savings ratio. Under certain conditions, daily HVAC energy savings reached as high as 17 kWh, with a savings ratio of 35%. Sensor performance showed an overall accuracy of 83.8%, a False Positive Rate (FPR) of 12.8%, and a False Negative Rate (FNR) of 47.4%. A key limitation was the sensor’s inability to detect stationary occupants during sleep, leading to a midnight FNR of nearly 100% and significantly compromising thermal comfort. Additionally, the implementation of OCC resulted in extended periods of high electricity demand on summer afternoons, affecting occupant’s thermal comfort and posing potential challenges to community-level grid operations if OCC were widely adopted. Furthermore, this study addresses a critical research gap by empirically investigating energy-saving potential and occupancy sensor performance in residential buildings. Through a comprehensive field-testing study, the research examines the interrelationship between sensor accuracy, energy savings, and thermal comfort, an area that has received limited attention in the current literature.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2022

Assessing synergies and trade-offs of diverging Paris-compliant mitigation strategies with long-term SDG objectives

The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and the Paris Agreement are the two transformative agendas, which set the benchmarks for nations to address urgent social, economic and environmental challenges. Aside from setting long-term goals, the pathways followed by nations will involve a series of synergies and trade-offs both between and within these agendas. Since it will not be possible to optimise across the 17 SDGs while simultaneously transitioning to low-carbon societies, it will be necessary to implement policies to address the most critical aspects of the agendas and understand the implications for the other dimensions. Here, we rely on a modelling exercise to analyse the long-term implications of a variety of Paris-compliant mitigation strategies suggested in the recent scientific literature on multiple dimensions of the SDG Agenda. The strategies included rely on technological solutions such as renewable energy deployment or carbon capture and storage, nature-based solutions such as afforestation and behavioural changes in the demand side. Results for a selection of energy-environment SDGs suggest that some mitigation pathways could have negative implications on food and water prices, forest cover and increase pressure on water resources depending on the strategy followed, while renewable energy shares, household energy costs, ambient air pollution and yield impacts could be improved simultaneously while reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Overall, results indicate that promoting changes in the demand side could be beneficial to limit potential trade-offs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Evaluation of Long-Term Outcomes and Toxicity After Stereotactic Phosphorus-32–Based Intracavitary Brachytherapy in Patients With Cystic Craniopharyngioma

Interstitial brachytherapy based on phosphorus-32 (P-32) has an established role as a minimally invasive treatment modality for patients with cystic craniopharyngioma. However, reporting on long-term outcomes with toxicity profiles for large cohorts is lacking in the literature. The purpose of this study is therefore to evaluate the long-term visual, endocrinal, and neurocognitive functions in what is the largest patient series having received this treatment to date.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Performance and long-term stability of CO 2 conversion to formic acid using a three-compartment electrolyzer design

The electrochemical reduction of CO 2 to formate and formic acid has attracted a great amount of academic and commercial interest over the past five years. A number of experimental studies have generated data on the Faradaic performance and stability of various candidate catalyst materials in producing formate or formic acid. However, most of the data has been conducted at low current densities and over short time periods, typically hours to days. There is a critical need in providing long-term catalyst stability as well as electrolyzer-based operating data, which are needed for the commercial scale-up and operation of this technology, especially at high current densities. In this paper, the electrochemical CO 2 conversion to pure formic acid was conducted using a three-compartment design electrolyzer, demonstrating electrolyzer catalyst and performance stability for over 1000 h at current densities up to 200 mA cm -2 . Depending on the operation conditions, the electrolyzer directly produced a 6.03 to 12.92 wt% (1.3 to 2.8 M) formic acid product at Faradaic efficiencies ranging between 73.0 to 91.3%. Data on electrolyzer performance, including formic acid product generation rate, energy efficiency, and energy consumption are reported at three different current densities, 100, 200, and 250 mA cm -2 . Finally, a long term 1000 h electrolyzer stability run at 200 mA cm -2 is presented, providing information on the operating conditions required in obtaining stable electrolyzer performance. All the data will be extremely useful in the commercial scale-up of this technology.

10 SYNTHETIC FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Quantifying the long-term changes of terrestrial water storage and their driving factors

Global warming is expected to cause changes in terrestrial water storage (TWS) across the land surface, with widespread impacts on ecosystems and society. Although extensive research has been performed to analyze TWS changes and possible drivers during the post-2000 period, longer-term evolution of TWS and associated environmental forcings remain relatively unexplored. In this study, we evaluated the performance of the Energy Exascale Earth System model (E3SM) land model ELM version 1 (ELM v1) in simulating global TWS, and used factorial simulations of ELMv1 to quantify global TWS changes and their drivers during 1948–2012. We found that ELM’s agreed best with existing satellites and reconstruction datasets in temperate regions unaffected by irrigation. Biome- and climate zone-averaged TWS mainly increased at rates between 0 and 10 mm/year over 1948–2012, but the second half of that period saw smaller positive trends than the first half or even negative trends. Climate change explained >80 % of the TWS trends across most biomes and climate zones, followed by land use and land cover change. The physiological and phenological effects of CO2 primarily induced noticeable TWS trends in the more humid biomes and climate zones across different latitudes. In contrast, nitrogen deposition and aerosol deposition generally had smaller and negative impacts across the biomes and climate regions. Among the meteorological drivers analyzed, the long-term average imbalance between precipitation (P), evapotranspiration (E), and runoff (Q) contributed >50 % of the TWS trends in most biomes and climate zones, with nonlinearity being induced by spatially heterogenous changes in E/P and Q/P ratios. The accumulated detrended anomalies in P, E, and Q also often contributed substantially, while the trends difference between P, E, and Q contributed little. Together, these findings unveiled an intensification of the global TWS and its diverse patterns of climate change and different non-withdrawal human-induced alterations, contributing to a more comprehensive understanding and projection of the global water cycle.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Hydrologic connectivity and dynamics of solute transport in a mountain stream: Insights from a long-term tracer test and multiscale transport modeling informed by machine learning

The movement of solutes in a watershed is a complex process with multiple interactions and feedbacks across spatial and temporal scales. Modeling the dynamics of solute transport along diverse hydrologic pathways within watersheds – from hillslopes to stream channels and in and out of the hyporheic zones – is challenging but critically important, as these processes integrate and contribute to the biogeochemical functioning of the river corridor up to the river network scale. Here we use results from a long-term network-scale tracer test at the H.J. Andrews experimental forest in western Cascade Mountains, Oregon, USA to inform a multiscale framework for transport in stream corridors. The framework uses a Lagrangian-based subgrid model to represent the effects of hyporheic exchange flow and advective transport at stream network scales. The spatially and temporally resolved stream discharge needed for the transport model is imputed across the river system by an entity-aware long short-term memory network. Modeled concentrations show good agreements with the observations and exhibit power scaling laws indicative of a very wide range of timescales over which hyporheic exchange flow occurs. Our results demonstrate a data-informed modeling framework that links dynamical processes occurring at small scales to a network context to help understand how changes at reach scale cascade into network-scale effects, providing a useful tool for sustainable river basin management.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Degradation of impact toughness in cast stainless steels during long-term thermal aging

Cast austenitic stainless steels (CASSs) have been extensively used for the large components of nuclear reactor primary coolant systems. Since the cast steels inevitably contain degradable metastable phases and replacement of the large coolant system components is impractical, the thermal embrittlement of CASS components has been a serious concern in the extended-term operation of nuclear power plants. This study aimed to systematically measure and analyze the effect of long-term thermal aging on the Charpy impact toughness to provide a comprehensive understanding of thermal degradation behavior and a practical aging model to predict the degree of thermal degradation in the cast stainless steels. Additionally, the materials tested in the research include eight CASS alloys (two CF3s, one CF3M, three CF8s, and two CF8Ms) and two reference wrought materials (304L and 316L), in which the nominal δ-ferrite content ranges from ~2% to 33%. These stainless steels have been thermally aged at two light water reactor (LWR) temperatures (290 and 330 °C) and at two accelerated-aging temperatures (360 and 400 °C) for up to 30,000 h; these include both under-aged and over-aged conditions relative to the extended service lifetime (80 years). Charpy impact testing was performed for aged and non-aged specimens, and the impact (absorbed) energy parameters were correlated with a new aging parameter (A). Both the reduction of impact fracture toughness and the shift of ductile-brittle transition temperature were strongly dependent on the δ-ferrite content and degree of thermal aging. A linear relationship was found between the increasing rate of the index transition temperature T 41J and aging parameter A; base on which an empirical model was proposed for prediction of the transition temperature as a simple function of the aging parameter (A) and δ-ferrite content (F). Finally, the critical aging parameter for embrittlement (AC) was evaluated and compared with the existing δ-ferrite content criteria.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2026

A Kinetic Model of the Long-Term Corrosion of Glass-Ceramic Materials

Multiphase waste forms show promise for increased waste loading and for the ability to dispose of contaminated solid and particulate waste through direct densification. However, achieving predictive capability for long-term durability of multiphase waste forms, and thus assessing their possible deployment, requires expanding the current, limited knowledge base. Here, we describe the development of a corrosion model of a two-phase waste form consisting of crystals of known volume fraction embedded in a glass matrix. This model accounts for the dissolution of both the crystalline and glass phases as well as the hydration of the glass phase through an ion exchange reaction. Because of the large difference in solubility between the two phases, the reactive surface of the crystalline phase is a function of the extent of dissolution of the glass phase in this model. Model parameterization was performed using corrosion data, such as from single-pass flow-through tests, for the individual phases. The parameterized corrosion model was evaluated against static dissolution test data for a glass-ceramic multiphase waste form. This evaluation demonstrated the model’s ability to reproduce the time-dependent release of key tracers of glass and crystalline phase dissolution. Hence, the development of a kinetic model provides a pathway for long-term durability predictions and thus the use of multiphase waste forms in nuclear cleanup missions.

Kerisit, Sebastien N.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Fabrication and accelerated long-term stability test of asymmetrical hollow fiber-supported thin film oxygen separation membrane

Asymmetrical hollow fiber-supported thin film membrane may provide microstructural advantages for air separation and oxygen production. The fabrication of such a membrane is usually very difficult, particularly the sintering behaviors and thermal expansion coefficient (TEC) mismatch among multiple layers. This directly affects the reliability and long-term stability of the membrane. Here, in this research, the sintering behaviors of a set of simple oxides are systematically studied and ZnO is identified as a material component for composite substrate La 0.6 Sr 0.4 Co 0.2 Fe 0.8 O 3-δ (LSCF)-ZnO. The LSCF-ZnO ratios are further optimized by trading off several factors, e.g., matching the sintering behaviors and TECs of the LSCF-ZnO composite with those of LSCF thin film separation layer while enhancing the substrate strength. With the identified LSCF-ZnO ratio, the LSCF-ZnO composite hollow fiber substrate precursor is formed through slurry spinning process with porous microstructure being formed via phase inversion process. The thin film LSCF dense separation layer is then dip-coated on the substrate followed by co-sintering process. A thin, porous PrBaCo(Fe 0.6 Zr 0.2 Y 0.2 )O 5+δ (PBCFZY) catalyst layer is fabricated on the dense LSCF separation layer with dip-coating and sintering process, forming an asymmetrical membrane device LSCF-ZnO/LSCF/PBCFZY. Oxygen permeation test of the device is systematically conducted, and the fundamental mechanisms are analyzed. An accelerated long-term stability test of the membrane is also conducted (~550h, 46 thermal cycling loads), demonstrating excellent robustness and durability. The device is characterized and analyzed before and after the test. By replacing a considerable amount of high cost LSCF with low cost ZnO in the substrate, it not only enhances the stability but also reduces the capital cost of the membrane for practical applications.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Enhanced long-term cyclability in Li-Rich layered oxides by electrochemically constructing a Li x TM 3-x O 4 -type spinel shell

The poor long-term cycling stability, including the fast capacity fade and the severe voltage decay, has become the main concern hindering the practical application of Li-rich layered oxides, a promising cathode for high- energy-density Li-ion battery. Herein, we design and electrochemically construct a ~10 nm-thick Li x TM 3-x O 4 - type (TM ¼Ni, Co, Mn, 0 3 O 4 -type spinel phase and the good Liþconductivity of LiMn 2 O 4 -type spinel phase. Systemic structural and electrochemical analysis demonstrate that, it slows down the activation rate of Li 2 MnO 3 component and efficiently alleviates the lattice O loss at high voltage (>4.5 V) and Mn dissolution, thereby suppressing the structural degradation from the layered phase to the spinel phase in the bulk, eventually significantly enhancing the long-term cycling stability. This study adds richness into the Mn-based spinel phase system and provides a new heterostructure design strategy to improve the electrochemical performance of Li-rich layered cathodes and beyond.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Nuclear waste attributes of near-term deployable small modular reactors

The nuclear waste attributes of near-term deployable SMRs were assessed using established nuclear waste metrics, which are the DU mass, SNF mass, volume, activity, decay heat, radiotoxicity, and decommissioning LLW volumes. Metrics normalized per unit electricity generation were compared to a reference large PWR. Three SMRs, VOYGR, Natrium, and Xe-100, were selected because they represent a range of reactor and fuel technologies and are active designs deployable by the decade’s end. The SMR nuclear waste attributes show both some similarities to the PWR and some significant differences caused by reactor-specific design features. The DU mass is equivalent to or slightly higher than the PWR. Back-end waste attributes for SNF disposition vary, but the differences have a limited impact on long-term repository isolation. SMR designs can vary significantly in SNF volume (and thus heat generation density). However, these differences are amenable to design optimization for handling, storage, transportation, and disposal technologies. Nuclear waste attributes from decommissioning vary depending on design and decommissioning technology choices. Given the analysis results in this study and assuming appropriate waste management system and operational optimization, there appear to be no major challenges to managing SMR nuclear wastes compared to the reference PWR.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Performance assessment after long-term irradiation of ATLAS Micromegas detectors using 120 GeV muons at the Gamma Irradiation Facility at CERN

The ATLAS muon spectrometer will face an increased particle rate as a result of the increased instantaneous luminosity expected during the High-Luminosity LHC (HL-LHC) upgrade. The HL-LHC will provide a luminosity of $\mathscr{L}$ = 7.5 × 10 34 cm −2 s −1 and 3000 fb −1 of integrated luminosity in 10 years, about 9 times more data of the ones so far collected by the ATLAS experiment. Micromegas chambers are used in the New Small Wheel(s), the first forward muon spectrometer station, to provide tracking and triggering at the intense particle rates expected. The detectors are operated with a ternary gas mixture composed of Ar + 5%CO 2 + 2%iC 4 H 10 , providing good high voltage stability and a large pulse height, important for inclined track reconstruction of particles crossing the detector. To ensure the long-term stable operation of the detector during the whole HL-LHC period, and due to the hydrocarbon content in the mixture, an extensive aging campaign has been ongoing since 2021 at the CERN Gamma Irradiation Facility, where spare production chambers are long-term exposed to a 14 TBq 137 Cs 𝛾-source, accumulating so far, a charge equivalent to five years of HL-LHC operations under the highest expected background rate. This paper describes the results of the Micromegas chamber performance studies after two years of gamma irradiation and using the SPS/H4 120 GeV muon beams at CERN.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2023

Accumulation of microplastics in soil after long-term application of biosolids and atmospheric deposition

Land-applied biosolids can be a considerable source of microplastics in soils. Previous studies reported microplastics accumulation in soils from biosolid application, however, little is known about the contribution of atmospherically deposited microplastics to agricultural soils. In this study, we quantified and characterized microplastics in soils that have been amended with biosolids over the past 23 years. We also collected atmospheric deposition samples to determine the amount and type of plastics added to soils through atmospheric input over a period of about 2 years. Soil samples were taken from a replicated field trial where biosolids have been applied at rates of 0, 4.8, 6.9, and 9.0 t/ha every second crop. The biosolids were anaerobically digested and dewatered, and were applied by spreading onto the soil surface. Soil and atmospheric samples were extracted for microplastics by Fenton's reaction to remove organic matter followed by flotation in a zinc chloride solution to separate plastic from soil particles. Samples were analyzed for microplastics by optical microscopy and Laser Direct Infrared Imaging Analysis (LDIR). The mean number of microplastics identified from biosolids samples was 12,000 particles/kg dry biosolids. The long-term applications of biosolids to the soil led to mean plastics concentrations of 383, 500, and 361 particles/kg dry soil in the 0–10 cm depth for low, medium, and high biosolids application rates, respectively. These plastic concentrations were not significantly different from each other, but significantly higher than those found in non biosolids-amended soil (117 particles/kg dry soil). The dominant plastic types by number found in biosolids were polyurethane, followed by polyethylene, and polyamide. The most abundant plastics in soil samples were polyurethane, polyethylene terephthalate, polyamide, and polyethylene. Atmospheric deposition contributed to 15 particles/kg dry soil per year and was mainly composed of polyamide fibers. In conclusion, this study shows that long-term application of biosolids led to an accumulation of microplastics in soil, but that atmospheric deposition also contributes a considerable input of microplastics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Long-term excess nitrogen fertilizer increases sensitivity of soil microbial community to seasonal change revealed by ecological network and metagenome analyses

Nitrogen (N) fertilizer has often been generously applied to increase crop biomass yield. Although the influences of inorganic N fertilizer on soil microbial communities have been widely studied, the effect of N fertilizer on microbial co-occurrence networks and its metagenome is largely unknown. Further, seasonal changes in microbial community responses to N addition have rarely been reported. In this study, three N fertilizer rates (0, 56, 196 kg N/ha) were applied annually in switchgrass (Panicum virgatum L.) grown for bioenergy production in the upper Midwest, USA. The soil microbiome was affected by both fertilizer and low pH in the 7th year of fertilization treatments. The microbial community structures were relatively stable during the growing season for each N fertilizer rate. However, the excess N fertilizer (196N) increased the seasonal variation of bacterial and fungal communities. Network analysis showed that the microbial interactions at the 196N treatment were more intense, with decreased bacteria-fungal interactions compared to 56N and 0N. Furthermore, this suggests that the microbial community became more sensitive to environmental change under the influence of long-term excess N fertilizer. Metagenomic analysis showed that the long-term excess N fertilizer promoted many metabolic processes, especially carbohydrate and amino acid related metabolism and Archaea mediated ammonia oxidation. However, N fertilizer also reduced many other traits, especially N 2 fixation and signal transduction, the latter of which may contribute to the decreased interactions between bacteria and fungi.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Human adipose-derived mesenchymal stromal cells from face and abdomen undergo replicative senescence and loss of genetic integrity after long-term culture

Body fat depots are heterogeneous concerning their embryonic origin, structure, exposure to environmental stressors, and availability. Thus, investigating adipose-derived mesenchymal stromal cells (ASCs) from different sources is essential to standardization for future therapies. In vitro amplification is also critical because it may predispose cell senescence and mutations, reducing regenerative properties and safety. Here, we evaluated long-term culture of human facial ASCs (fASCs) and abdominal ASCs (aASCs) and showed that both met the criteria for MSCs characterization but presented differences in their immunophenotypic profile, and differentiation and clonogenic potentials. The abdominal tissue yielded more ASCs, and these had higher proliferative potential, but facial cells displayed fewer mitotic errors at higher passages. However, both cell types reduced clonal efficiency over time and entered replicative senescence around P12, as evaluated by progressive morphological alterations, reduced proliferative capacity, and SA-β-galactosidase expression. Loss of genetic integrity was detected by a higher proportion of cells showing nuclear alterations and γ-H2AX expression. Our findings indicate that the source of ASCs can substantially influence their phenotype and therefore should be carefully considered in future cell therapies, avoiding, however, long-term culture to ensure genetic stability.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Numerical Simulations in Support of a Long-Term Test of Gas Production From Hydrate Accumulations on the Alaska North Slope: Water Production and Associated Design and Management Issues

Here, we investigated numerical simulation strategies for a long-term test of depressurization-induced gas production from the B1 Sand of Unit B at the Hydrate-01 Stratigraphic Test Well. The main objective of this study was to estimate fluid production rates (with emphasis on water production) under a variety of conditions and production scenarios and contribute new insights to the design and management of the field test. In the first part of the study, we investigated the system response to a three-step depressurization process using two limiting sets of flow properties─the expected maximum and minimum intrinsic and effective permeabilities─for the very heterogeneous reservoir. In the second part, we investigated the effect of the production interval length and placement within the formation relative to the boundaries of the hydrate-bearing unit. The best performing well configuration was used in the third part of the study, which used the most representative subsurface flow properties to investigate the effect of the depressurization strategy on the production performance. The best overall performance (largest gas production with modest water production and a strong response at the observation wells) was obtained with a 10 m-long well situated 3 m below the top of the formation and a three-step depressurization scheme at 15-day intervals to a terminal bottomhole pressure of 2.8 MPa. The overall production performance was enhanced by a faster rate of depressurization. Estimated water production rates in all cases were limited and easily manageable. None of the tested well configurations or depressurization strategies significantly reduced water production without also severely reducing gas production. In all the investigated cases, 95% of the long-term fraction of produced water was replenished by inflows from the boundaries and could not be reduced. These substantial water inflows are an unavoidable feature of HU-B and cannot be easily mitigated by a hydraulic control.

02 PETROLEUM↗