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At least 253 records · Page 14

Life Cycle Testing of Ba(x)Sr(1-x)TiO3 Ferroelectric Thin Films in a Tunable Microwave Device

Thin film ferroelectrics are being studied as candidates for novel tunable microwave components such as tunable filters, tunable oscillators, and phase shifters for applications in phased array antennas. Much work has been done optimizing the ferroelectric material and in producing proof-of-concepts of these components. However, little attention has been given to their reliability. In this study we present our results on the reliability of high quality K-band phase shifters made of Ba(sub x)Sr(sub 1-x)TiO3 (BSTO) ferroelectric thin films (0.5 to 0.75 micrometers thick) on MgO and LAO. The phase shift and insertion loss were measured at 300 K over 104 operation cycles within a 0 to 400 V dc bias range (0 to 40 V/micrometer) at 15, 18, and 22 GHz. Results for these phase shifters indicate that in general there were no appreciable changes in phase shift after 4x10(exp 4) cycles, suggesting that these phase shifters are robust enough to sustain optimal performance under the operating mode typical of fast tracking phased arrays.

Miranda, Felix A.↗

Fast collective neutrino oscillations inside the neutrino sphere in core-collapse supernovae

Neutrinos are believed to have a key role in the explosion mechanism of core-collapse supernovae as they carry most of the energy released by the gravitational collapse of a massive star. If their flavor is converted fast inside the neutrino sphere, the supernova explosion may be influenced. This paper is reporting the results of the extended work of our previous paper. Here, we perform a thorough survey of the electron lepton number (ELN) crossing in one of our self-consistent, realistic Boltzmann simulations in two spatial dimensions under axisymmetry for the existence of the crossings between $ν_e$ and $\bar{ν}_e$ angular distributions, or the ELN crossing. We report for the first time the positive detections deep inside the core of the massive star in the vicinity of neutrino sphere at $\textit{r}$ ≈ 16 – 21 km . We find that low values of the electron fraction $Y_e$ produced by convective motions together with the appearance of light elements are critically important to give rise to the ELN crossing by enhancing the chemical potential difference between proton and neutron, and hence by mitigating the Fermi-degeneracy of $ν_e$. Since the region of positive detection are sustained and, in fact, expanding with time, it may have an impact on the explosion of core-collapse supernovae, observational neutrino astronomy, and nucleosynthesis of heavy nuclei.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Spatiotemporal structure of edge harmonic oscillation and its role in ELM-free QH-mode at KSTAR

In Quiescent H-mode (QH-mode), edge-localized modes (ELMs) are naturally replaced by a low-n edge harmonic oscillation (EHO), yet the self-regulating transport mechanism driven by the EHO remains insufficiently understood. Using high-spatiotemporal-resolution imaging diagnostics on KSTAR—electron cyclotron emission imaging and broadband electron cyclotron emission—we resolve the eigenmode structure of the EHO and elucidate its regulatory role in edge transport. The EHO is localized within the pedestal near the maximum pressure gradient, propagates in the ion-diamagnetic direction, and its radial envelope expands with increasing shear, suggesting that rotational shear is closely associated with the structural evolution of the EHO. Information-theoretic Transfer Entropy analysis identifies a distinct ‘dual-stabilization’ regulatory interaction pattern: the EHO is associated with enhanced outward energy transport to limit the pressure gradient, while the background shear flow is associated with preferential regulatory influence on the EHO saturation amplitude and energy flux. These results demonstrate that the QH-mode pedestal is sustained by a shear-associated regulation mechanism, where the coupling between rotational shear and mode structure appears closely linked to the sustained ELM-free state.

ECEI↗

Controlling structural phases of Sn through lattice engineering

Topology and superconductivity, two distinct phenomena, offer unique insight into quantum properties and their applications in quantum technologies, spintronics, and sustainable energy technologies. Tin (Sn) plays a pivotal role here as an element because of its two structural phases, α-Sn exhibiting topological characteristics and β-Sn showing superconductivity. Here, we demonstrate precise control of these phases in Sn thin films using molecular beam epitaxy with systematically varied lattice parameters of the buffer layer. The Sn films exhibit either β-Sn or α-Sn phases as the buffer layer's lattice constant varies from 6.10 Å to 6.48 Å, spanning the range from GaSb (like InAs) to InSb. Further, the crystal structures of α- and β-Sn films are characterized by x-ray diffraction and confirmed by Raman spectroscopy and scanning transmission electron microscopy. Atomic force microscopy validates the smooth, continuous surface morphology. Electrical transport measurements further verify the phases: resistance drop near 3.7 K for β-Sn superconductivity and Shubnikov-de Haas oscillations for α-Sn topological characteristics. Density functional theory shows that α-Sn is stable under tensile strain and β-Sn under compressive strain, aligning well with experimental findings. Hence, this study introduces a platform controlling Sn phases through lattice engineering, enabling innovative applications in quantum technologies and beyond.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

A constant daylength during the Precambrian era?

The semidiurnal atmospheric thermal tide would have been resonant with free oscillations of the atmosphere when the day was approximately 21 h long, c. 600 Ma ago. Very large atmospheric tides would have resulted, with associated surface pressure oscillations in excess of 10 mbar in the tropics. Near resonance the Sun's gravitational torque on the atmospheric tide--accelerating Earth's rotation--would have been comparable in magnitude to the decelerating lunar torque upon the oceanic tides. The balance of the opposing torques may have long maintained a resonant approximately 21 h day, perhaps for much of the Precambrian. Because the timescale of lunar orbital evolution is not directly affected, a constant daylength would result in fewer days/month. The hypothesis is shown not to conflict with the available (stromatolitic) evidence. Escape from the resonance could have followed a relatively abrupt global warming, such as that occurring at the end of the Precambrian. Alternatively, escape may simply have followed a major increase in the rate of oceanic tidal dissipation, brought about by the changing topography of the world's oceans. We integrate the history of the lunar orbit with and without a sustained resonance, finding that the impact of a sustained resonance on the other orbital parameters of the Earth-Moon system would have not been large.

Non-NASA Center↗

Characterization and Simulation of Thermoacoustic Instability in a Low Emissions Combustor Prototype

Extensive research is being done toward the development of ultra-low-emissions combustors for aircraft gas turbine engines. However, these combustors have an increased susceptibility to thermoacoustic instabilities. This type of instability was recently observed in an advanced, low emissions combustor prototype installed in a NASA Glenn Research Center test stand. The instability produces pressure oscillations that grow with increasing fuel/air ratio, preventing full power operation. The instability behavior makes the combustor a potentially useful test bed for research into active control methods for combustion instability suppression. The instability behavior was characterized by operating the combustor at various pressures, temperatures, and fuel and air flows representative of operation within an aircraft gas turbine engine. Trends in instability behavior vs. operating condition have been identified and documented. A simulation developed at NASA Glenn captures the observed instability behavior. The physics-based simulation includes the relevant physical features of the combustor and test rig, employs a Sectored 1-D approach, includes simplified reaction equations, and provides time-accurate results. A computationally efficient method is used for area transitions, which decreases run times and allows the simulation to be used for parametric studies, including control method investigations. Simulation results show that the simulation exhibits a self-starting, self-sustained combustion instability and also replicates the experimentally observed instability trends vs. operating condition. Future plans are to use the simulation to investigate active control strategies to suppress combustion instabilities and then to experimentally demonstrate active instability suppression with the low emissions combustor prototype, enabling full power, stable operation.

DeLaat, John C.↗

Characterization and Simulation of the Thermoacoustic Instability Behavior of an Advanced, Low Emissions Combustor Prototype

Extensive research is being done toward the development of ultra-low-emissions combustors for aircraft gas turbine engines. However, these combustors have an increased susceptibility to thermoacoustic instabilities. This type of instability was recently observed in an advanced, low emissions combustor prototype installed in a NASA Glenn Research Center test stand. The instability produces pressure oscillations that grow with increasing fuel/air ratio, preventing full power operation. The instability behavior makes the combustor a potentially useful test bed for research into active control methods for combustion instability suppression. The instability behavior was characterized by operating the combustor at various pressures, temperatures, and fuel and air flows representative of operation within an aircraft gas turbine engine. Trends in instability behavior versus operating condition have been identified and documented, and possible explanations for the trends provided. A simulation developed at NASA Glenn captures the observed instability behavior. The physics-based simulation includes the relevant physical features of the combustor and test rig, employs a Sectored 1-D approach, includes simplified reaction equations, and provides time-accurate results. A computationally efficient method is used for area transitions, which decreases run times and allows the simulation to be used for parametric studies, including control method investigations. Simulation results show that the simulation exhibits a self-starting, self-sustained combustion instability and also replicates the experimentally observed instability trends versus operating condition. Future plans are to use the simulation to investigate active control strategies to suppress combustion instabilities and then to experimentally demonstrate active instability suppression with the low emissions combustor prototype, enabling full power, stable operation.

DeLaat, John C.↗

High-Fidelity Simulation of the Light-to-Dense Stratification Transient in the HiRJET Facility

Density stratification in a large enclosure is a crucial phenomenon to heat transfer and sustainable passive heat removal of a sodium fast reactor during reactivity transients. However, engineering turbulence models were identified to have unsatisfactory performance in predicting propagation of a stratified front. Yet, the scarcity of high-resolution data for stratification hampers the development of models. To explor e applications of leveraging direct numerical simulation (DNS) data to support turbulence model development, this work conducted DNS using NekRS to study a long stratification transient in the High-Resolution Jet (HiRJET) experimental facility. Here, this work considers an experiment run where light fluid is injected into a tank containing a denser fluid with a relative density difference of 1.5%. Formation of the stratified layer is identified as impingement of the buoyant jet promoting mixing of the two fluids. Based on the transient statistics, transport of the concentration can be characterized by regions with dominating effects of turbulent mixing, buoyant dissipation, and molecular diffusion, respectively, as moving away from the elevation of jet impingement. Concentration near the stratified front also exhibits oscillation at Brunt-Väisälä frequency. Preliminary validation of the simulation showed encouraging agreement of the concentration distribution with the reference experiment.

buoyant mixing↗

Explicit and implicit calculations of turbulent cavity flows with and without yaw angle

Computations were performed to simulate turbulent supersonic flows past three-dimensional deep cavities with and without yaw. Simulation of these self-sustained oscillatory flows were generated through time accurate solutions of the Reynolds averaged complete Navier-Stokes equations using two different schemes: (1) MacCormack, finite-difference; and (2) implicit, upwind, finite-volume schemes. The second scheme, which is approximately 30 percent faster, is found to produce better time accurate results. The Reynolds stresses were modeled, using the Baldwin-Lomax algebraic turbulence model with certain modifications. The computational results include instantaneous and time averaged flow properties everywhere in the computational domain. Time series analyses were performed for the instantaneous pressure values on the cavity floor. The time averaged computational results show good agreement with the experimental data along the cavity floor and walls. When the yaw angle is nonzero, there is no longer a single length scale (length-to-depth ratio) for the flow, as is the case for zero yaw angle flow. The dominant directions and inclinations of the vortices are dramatically different for this nonsymmetric flow. The vortex shedding from the cavity into the mainstream flow is captured computationally. This phenomenon, which is due to the oscillation of the shear layer, is confirmed by the solutions of both schemes.

Yen, Guan-Wei↗

Stabilizing the Power System in 2035 and Beyond: Evolving from Grid-Following to Grid-Forming Distributed Inverter Controllers (Final Technical Report)

Under existing grid operations, large synchronous generators provide sufficient rotational inertia to form a rigid backbone for the bulk power system. With photovoltaics (PV) forecasted to provide more than 600 GW of generation by 2050 under the U.S. Department of Energy’s SunShot Initiative objectives, however, it is clear that power electronic inverters will play a dominant role in future systems, and low-inertia stability must be ensured to maintain system reliability. Today, the risks to system stability can be observed on geographically small islands, such as Hawaii, which contain a relatively large amount of installed PV. These risks stem from a fundamental shortcoming of contemporary control strategies—existing inverter controllers cannot guarantee grid stability. Given that future power systems driven by sustainable resources will be characterized by low inertia, locations such as Hawaii provide a glimpse into the obstacles facing future power systems. Considering these challenges, the aim of this project was to develop and demonstrate distributed inverter controllers that enable the reliable control of low-inertia power systems with hundreds of gigawatts of integrated PV.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Near Resonance between the Shelf Ocean and Semidiurnal Atmospheric Tidal Winds

This manuscript illustrates the resonance between continental shelf oceans and the semidiurnal atmospheric tidal wind, explaining O(10 −2 ) m semidiurnal sea surface height (SSH) variations in detided datasets. The resonance, similar to amplification of semidiurnal oceanic tides on the gentle and wide shelf, results in pronounced, offshore-attenuated standing waves on the shelf which is driven by the cross-shore pressure gradient force, Coriolis force, and the rotary wind stress. Observations and numerical results from the Texas–Louisiana shelf confirm this mechanism, where a significant presence of the semidiurnal tidal wind couples with O(10 −1 ) m s −1 ocean currents, influencing SSH distribution and sustaining the wave structure. The consistency of the interaction and momentum budgets with the analytical solution suggests the robustness of the semidiurnal atmospheric tidal wind interacting with the shelf ocean. Notably, these findings suggest that similar resonances could occur on other gentle shelves known for enhancing semidiurnal oceanic tides and contribute 3%–10% of the wind work.

Atmosphere-ocean interaction↗

Influence of Combined Whole-Body Vibration Plus G-Loading on Visual Performance

Recent engineering analyses of the integrated Ares-Orion stack show that vibration levels for Orion crews have the potential to be much higher than those experienced in Gemini, Apollo, and Shuttle vehicles. Of particular concern to the Constellation Program (CxP) is the 12 Hz thrust oscillation (TO) that the Ares-I rocket develops during the final ~20 seconds preceding first-stage separation, at maximum G-loading. While the structural-dynamic mitigations being considered can assure that vibration due to TO is reduced to below the CxP crew health limit, it remains to be determined how far below this limit vibration must be reduced to enable effective crew performance during launch. Moreover, this "performance" vibration limit will inform the operations concepts (and crew-system interface designs) for this critical phase of flight. While Gemini and Apollo studies provide preliminary guidance, the data supporting the historical limits were obtained using less advanced interface technologies and very different operations concepts. In this study, supported by the Exploration Systems Mission Directorate (ESMD) Human Research Program, we investigated display readability-a fundamental prerequisite for any interaction with electronic crew-vehicle interfaces-while observers were subjected to 12 Hz vibration superimposed on the 3.8 G loading expected for the TO period of ascent. Two age-matched groups of participants (16 general population and 13 Crew Office) performed a numerical display reading task while undergoing sustained 3.8 G loading and whole-body vibration at 0, 0.15, 0.3, 0.5, and 0.7 g in the eyeballs in/out (x-axis) direction. The time-constrained reading task used an Orion-like display with 10- and 14-pt non-proportional sans-serif fonts, and was designed to emulate the visual acquisition and processing essential for crew system monitoring. Compared to the no-vibration baseline, we found no significant effect of vibration at 0.15 and 0.3 g on task error rates (ER) or response times (RT). Significant degradations in both ER and RT, however, were observed at 0.5 and 0.7 g for 10-pt, and at 0.7 g for 14-pt font displays. These objective performance measures were mirrored by participants' subjective ratings. Interestingly, we found that the impact of vibration on ER increased with distance from the center of the display, but only for vertical displacements. Furthermore, no significant ER or RT aftereffects were detected immediately following vibration, regardless of amplitude. Lastly, given that our reading task required no specialized spaceflight expertise, our finding that effects were not statistically distinct between our two groups is not surprising. The results from this empirical study provide initial guidance for evaluating the display readability trade-space between text-font size and vibration amplitude. However, the outcome of this work should be considered preliminary in nature for a number of reasons: 1. The single 12 Hz x-axis vibration employed was based on earlier load-cycle models of the induced TO environment at the end of Ares-I first stage flight. Recent analyses of TO mitigation designs suggest that significant concurrent off-axis vibration may also occur. 2. The shirtsleeve environment in which we tested fails to capture the full kinematic and dynamic complexity of the physical interface between crewmember and the still-to-bematured helmet-suit-seat designs, and the impact these will have for vibration transmission and consequent performance. 3. By examining performance in this reading and number processing task, we are only assessing readability, a first and necessary step that in itself does not directly address the performance of more sophisticated operational tasks such as vehicle-health monitoring or manual control of the vehicle.

readability↗

Pathways to Discovery in Astronomy and Astrophysics for the 2020s

We live in an extraordinary period of discovery in astronomy and astrophysics. Six Nobel Prizes have been awarded over the past decade alone for discoveries based on astronomical data (dark energy, gravitational waves, neutrino oscillations, the discovery of exoplanets, cosmology, and supermassive black holes). Many of the ambitious scientific visions of the 2010 New Worlds, New Horizons (Astro2010)1 decadal survey are being fulfilled, but momentum has only grown. We stand on the threshold of new endeavors that will transform not only our understanding of the universe and the processes and physical paradigms that govern it but also humanity’s place in it. This report of the Committee for a Decadal Survey on Astronomy and Astrophysics 2020 (Astro2020) proposes a broad, integrated plan for space- and ground-based astronomy and astrophysics for the decade 2023–2032.2 It also lays the foundations for further advances in the following decade. This is the seventh in a sequence of decadal survey studies in this field from the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. This survey examines the program of record, providing advice on the major projects from prior surveys that are yet to be completed. It also lays out priorities for future investments driven by scientific opportunities. The recommendations in this report advance foundational activities that support the people who drive innovation and discovery, and that promote the technologies and tools needed to carry out the science. The report also recommends sustaining activities on a broad range of cost and time scales, as well as activities that enable future visionary projects by maturing them scientifically and technically. Last, the recommendations set in motion the construction of frontier facilities that will change the view and understanding of the cosmos. The survey is bounded by plausible budget scenarios based on briefings from the sponsoring agencies— the Department of Energy (DOE), the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), and the National Science Foundation (NSF). Within these bounds, the survey aims high, reflecting this time of great scientific promise and progress, with opportunities to pursue some of the most compelling scientific quests of our times.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Flow Instabilities in boiling channels and their suppression methodologies—A review

Small modular reactors (SMRs) are gaining significant attention as a promising solution for clean and sustainable nuclear-power generation. However, the operation of SMRs is subject to various challenges, including two-phase flow instabilities. Flow instability has the potential to trigger flow-induced vibration and cyclic fluctuations in local thermal stress. These instabilities frequently manifest because of the complex interplay among a multitude of factors, encompassing thermal-hydraulic conditions, the geometric configuration of the steam generator, and operational parameters. These conditions could subsequently lead to premature critical heat flux, equipment malfunctions, and other safety concerns. Here, the endeavor to address steam-generator flow instabilities is of utmost importance in augmenting the sustainability and efficiency of contemporary energy production. This study offers a comprehensive review of instabilities in two-phase flow, with a particular focus on the influential factors impacting the stability of flow boiling. Furthermore, it delves into the processes of identifying, characterizing, and ameliorating these instabilities, emphasizing pivotal findings, methodologies employed, and avenues for prospective research. The primary parameters of concern encompass the efficient transfer of thermal energy, the optimization of mass-flow rates, and the establishment of favorable boundary conditions, all in the context of steam generator design to alleviate instability for water-cooled SMRs. These discernments bear substantial ramifications for enhancing reactor performance and ensuring operational safety.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Intraseasonal Variations in Tropical Energy Balance: Relevance to Climate Sensitivity?

Intraseasonal variability of deep convection represents a fundamental mode of organization for tropical convection. While most studies of intraseasonal oscillations (ISOs) have focused on the spatial propagation and dynamics of convectively coupled circulations, here we examine the projection of ISOs on the tropically-averaged heat and moisture budget. One unresolved question concerns the degree to which observable variations in the "fast" processes (e.g. convection, radiative / turbulent fluxes) can inform our understanding of feedback mechanisms operable in the context of climate change. Our analysis use daily data from satellite observations, the Modern Era analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA), and other model integrations to address these questions: (i) How are tropospheric temperature variations related to that tropical deep convection and the associated ice cloud fractional amount (ICF), ice water path (IWP), and properties of warmer liquid clouds? (ii) What role does moisture transport play vis-a-vis ocean latent heat flux in enabling the evolution of deep convection to mediate PBL - free atmospheric temperature equilibration? (iii) What affect do convectively generated upper-tropospheric clouds have on the TOA radiation budget? Our methodology is similar to that of Spencer et al., (2007 GRL ) whereby a composite time series of various quantities over 60+ ISO events is built using tropical mean tropospheric temperature signal as a reference to which the variables are related at various lag times (from -30 to +30 days). The area of interest encompasses the global oceans between 20oN/S. The increase of convective precipitation cannot be sustained by evaporation within the domain, implying strong moisture transports into the tropical ocean area. The decrease in net TOA radiation that develops after the peak in deep convective rainfall, is part of the response that constitutes a "discharge" / "recharge" mechanism that facilitates tropical heat balance maintenance on these time scales. However, water vapor and hydrologic scaling relationships for this mode of variability cast doubt on the utility of ISO variations as proxies for climate sensitivity response to external radiatively forced (e.g. greenhouse gas-induced) climate change.

Robertson, Franklin R.↗

Operation of a Heat Pipe with Multiple Heat Loads Under Reflux Mode

"Heat pipes are being used on many spacecraft to acquire heat dissipated by the payload and transport the heat to a remote radiator. In instrument-level or spacecraft-level ground testing, many heat pipes are placed in a gravity-driven reflux mode where the condenser is well above the evaporator, resulting in the formation of a liquid pool at the bottom of the heat pipe. If a head load is applied to a site that is in contact with the liquid pool, the generated vapor will flow upward to the condenser and the condensate will fall back to the evaporator due the influence of gravity. Hence, the heat pipe can operate steadily under reflux mode because the heated site always has sufficient liquid supply to sustain the fluid flow. In contrast, when a heat load is applied to a site remote from the liquid pool, the heat pipe will be unable to transfer heat through liquid evaporation unless the heated site has a chance to be in contact with liquid. This can be accomplished by applying an additional heat load to the liquid pool to establish a reflux flow so that the remote site can capture the falling condensate. An experimental investigation was conducted to study the effect of gravity on the thermal performance of a heat pipe under reflux mode with multiple heat loads. An aluminum ammonia heat pipe with internal axial grooves was placed in a vertical position. Cooling was provided to the top of the heat pipe, and heat was applied to three sites below the condenser with various heat distributions. One of the heated sites was above the liquid pool, and two were in direct contact with the liquid pool. Test results showed that when a heat load was applied to either one or both of the lower sites, the heat pipe could run steadily under reflux mode. After a reflux flow had been established, a heat load could be applied to the upper site. If the upper site could capture sufficient liquid falling from the condenser to handle its heat load solely by liquid evaporation, the heat pipe could reach steady operation. Otherwise, the temperature of the upper site would oscillate due to its intermittent contact with the falling liquid. For a given heat load to the upper site, the amplitude of temperature oscillation decreased with an increasing heat load to the lower sites because there was more falling condensate available for the upper site to capture. Moreover, the temperature oscillation disappeared completely when the total heat loads to lower sites exceeded a threshold power, and the threshold power increased with an increasing heat load to the upper site."

Ku, Jentung↗

A Risk Assessment Framework for Cyber-Physical Security in Distribution Grids with Grid-Edge DERs

Integration of inverter-based distributed energy resources (DERs) is reshaping the landscape of distribution grids to fulfill the socioeconomic, environmental, and sustainability goals. Addressing the technological challenges of DER grid integration requires an adaptive communication layer for efficient DER management and control. This transition has given rise to a cyberphysical system (CPS) architecture within the distribution system, causing new vulnerabilities for cyberphysical attacks. To better address potential threats, this paper presents a comprehensive risk assessment framework for cyberphysical security in distribution grids with grid-edge DERs. The framework incorporates a detailed CPS model accounting for dynamic DER characteristics within the distribution grid. It identifies vulnerabilities in DER communication systems, models attack scenarios, and addresses communication latency crucial for inverter control timescales. Subsequently, the quantification of attack impacts employs an attack probability model including both the vulnerability and criticality of cyber components. The proposed risk assessment framework was validated through testing on the modified IEEE 13-node and 123-node test feeders.

cyberattack↗

The Mexican Drought Atlas: Tree-Ring Reconstructions of the Soil Moisture Balance During the Late Pre-Hispanic, Colonial, and Modern Eras

Mexico has suffered a long history and prehistory of severe sustained drought. Drought over Mexico is modulated by ocean-atmospheric variability in the Atlantic and Pacific, raising the possibility for long-range seasonal climate forecasting, which could help mediate the economic and social impacts of future dry spells. The instrumental record of Mexican climate is very limited before 1920, but tree-ring chronologies developed from old-growth forests in Mexico can provide an excellent proxy representation of the spatial pattern and intensity of past moisture regimes useful for the analysis of climate dynamics and climate impacts. The Mexican Drought Atlas (MXDA) has been developed from an extensive network of 252 climate sensitive tree-ring chronologies in and near Mexico. The MXDA reconstructions extend from 1400 CE-2012 and were calibrated with the instrumental summer (JJA) self-calibrating Palmer Drought Severity Index (scPDSI) on a 0.5deg latitude/longitude grid extending over land areas from 14 to 34degN and 75-120degW using Ensemble Point-by-Point Regression (EPPR) for the 1944-1984 period. The grid point reconstructions were validated for the period 1920-1943 against instrumental gridded scPDSI values based on the fewer weather station observations available during that interval. The MXDA provides a new spatial perspective on the historical impacts of moisture extremes over Mexico during the past 600-years, including the Aztec Drought of One Rabbit in 1454, the drought of El Ano de Hambre in 1785-1786, and the drought that preceded the Mexican Revolution of 1909-1910. The El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the most important ocean-atmospheric forcing of moisture variability detected with the MXDA. In fact, the reconstructions suggest that the strongest central equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) teleconnection to the soil moisture balance over North America may reside in northern Mexico. This ENSO signal has stronger and more time-stable correlations than computed for either the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation or Pacific Decadal Oscillation. The extended Multivariate ENSO Index is most highly correlated with reconstructed scPDSI over northern Mexico, where warm events favor moist conditions during the winter, spring, and early summer. This ENSO teleconnection to northern Mexico has been strong over the past 150 years, but it has been comparatively weak and non-stationary in the MXDA over central and southern Mexico where eastern tropical Pacific and Caribbean/tropical Atlantic SSTs seem to be more important. The ENSO teleconnection to northern Mexico is weaker in the available instrumental PDSI, but analyses based on the millennium climate simulations with the Community Earth System Model suggest that the moisture balance during the winter, spring, and early summer over northern Mexico may indeed be particularly sensitive to ENSO forcing. Nationwide drought is predicted to become more common with anthropogenic climate change, but the MXDA reconstructions indicate that intense "All Mexico" droughts have been rare over the past 600 years and their frequency does not appear to have increased substantially in recent decades.

El Nino↗