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At least 253 records · Page 14

Underground hydrogen storage leakage detection and characterization based on machine learning of sparse seismic data

Underground hydrogen storage (UHS) is considered as a scalable approach for massive storage and seasonal extraction of hydrogen (H 2 ). Although conventional leakage detection and characterization methods based on time-lapse seismic imaging and inversion generally apply to H 2 leakage detection problem, a high-fidelity yet cost effective geophysics approach is still missing to reliably inform leakage location and properties based on very sparse data. In response, we develop a novel supervised machine learning method to detect and characterize H 2 leakage from UHS. The input to our neural network are sparse time-lapse seismic waveforms, while the output from the neural network includes the spatial location and physical properties of a H 2 leakage. Here, we generate high-quality time-lapse waveforms using the elastic-wave equations to train the neural network. We train and validate our machine learning model and find that it attains high accuracy in using extremely sparse time-lapse seismic data to detect and characterize H 2 leakage. Our investigation is the first systematic study that focuses on applying machine learning to subsurface H 2 leakage detection and characterization and could potentially serve as a cost-effective geophysical tool for underground hydrogen leakage detection and characterization with high fidelity.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Developing a Redox Network for Coastal Saltmarsh Systems in the PFLOTRAN Reaction Model

Coastal ecosystems have been largely ignored in Earth system models but are important zones for carbon and nutrient processing. Interactions between water, microbes, soil, sediments, and vegetation are important for mechanistic representation of coastal processes and ecosystem function. To investigate the role of these feedbacks, we used a reactive transport model (PFLOTRAN) that has the capability to be connected to the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM). PFLOTRAN was used to incorporate redox reactions and track chemical species important for coastal ecosystems as well as define simple representations of vegetation dynamics. Here our goal was to incorporate oxygen flux, salinity, pH, sulfur cycling, and methane production along with plant-mediated transport of gases and tidal flux. Using porewater profile and incubation data for model calibration and evaluation, we were able to create depth-resolved biogeochemical soil profiles for saltmarsh habitat and use this updated representation to simulate direct and indirect effects of elevated CO 2 and temperature on subsurface biogeochemical cycling. We found that simply changing the partial pressure of CO 2 or increasing temperature in the model did not fully reproduce observed changes in the porewater profile, but the inclusion of plant or microbial responses to CO 2 and temperature manipulations was more accurate in representing porewater concentrations. This indicates the importance of characterizing tightly coupled vegetation-subsurface processes for developing predictive understanding and the need for measurement of plant-soil interactions on the same time scale to understand how hotspots or moments are generated.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Systematic uncertainties in the measurement of the neutron lifetime using the Lunar Prospector neutron spectrometer

The lifetime of free neutrons measured in the laboratory has a longstanding disparity of ≈9 s. A space-based technique has recently been proposed to independently measure the neutron lifetime using interactions between the galactic cosmic rays and a low atmosphere planetary body. This technique has not produced competitive results yet due to constraints of nonoptimized data that contain large systematic errors. We use data from the neutron spectrometer on-board NASA's Lunar Prospector, and study two large systematics in the measurement of neutron lifetime: the lunar subsurface temperature and the lunar surface composition. We use the HeCd and HeSn neutron spectrometer data when the spacecraft was in a highly elliptical orbit during the orbit insertion period. We report the neutron lifetime using four different models that each have different choices of surface temperature and composition. The 5° [Prettyman et al ., J. Geophys. Res.: Planets 111, 2005JE002656 (2006)] and 2° [Wilson et al., Phys. Rev. C 104, 045501 (2021)] rebinned maps result in 777.6±11.7 s and 739.6±10.8 s, respectively. For the 20° map (Prettyman et al., 2006), constant equatorial and a latitude-dependent temperature model result in 738.6±10.8 s and 767.3±11.2 s, respectively. Increasing the complexities of the models accounting for the systematic effects increase the measured lifetime. However, the reported measurements are not competitive with the laboratory results due to large unaccounted systematics resulting from nonoptimized measurements and modeling assumptions. This work serves as a study of systematic uncertainties for future neutron lifetime measurements using the space-based technique. We estimate the effect on the lifetime from the choice of temperature model to be to be 28.7 ±15.5 s, and choice of compositional map (for 20° and 5° maps) to be 10.3 ±12.2 s.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

CMIP5 model selection for ISMIP6 ice sheet model forcing: Greenland and Antarctica

Abstract. The ice sheet model intercomparison project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6) effort brings together the ice sheet and climate modeling communities to gain understanding of the ice sheet contribution to sea level rise. ISMIP6 conducts stand-alone ice sheet experiments that use space- and time-varying forcing derived from atmosphere–ocean coupled global climate models (AOGCMs) to reflect plausible trajectories for climate projections. The goal of this study is to recommend a subset of CMIP5 AOGCMs (three core and three targeted) to produce forcing for ISMIP6 stand-alone ice sheet simulations, based on (i) their representation of current climate near Antarctica and Greenland relative to observations and (ii) their ability to sample a diversity of projected atmosphere and ocean changes over the 21st century. The selection is performed separately for Greenland and Antarctica. Model evaluation over the historical period focuses on variables used to generate ice sheet forcing. For stage (i), we combine metrics of atmosphere and surface ocean state (annual- and seasonal-mean variables over large spatial domains) with metrics of time-mean subsurface ocean temperature biases averaged over sectors of the continental shelf. For stage (ii), we maximize the diversity of climate projections among the best-performing models. Model selection is also constrained by technical limitations, such as availability of required data from RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 projections. The selected top three CMIP5 climate models are CCSM4, MIROC-ESM-CHEM, and NorESM1-M for Antarctica and HadGEM2-ES, MIROC5, and NorESM1-M for Greenland. This model selection was designed specifically for ISMIP6 but can be adapted for other applications.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

EGS Reservoir Modeling for Developing Geothermal District Heating at Cornell University

Cornell University is pursuing development of an enhanced geothermal system (EGS) for providing heating to its main campus in Upstate New York. A ~10,000 ft (~3 km) deep vertical observation well ('CUBO') was drilled in 2022 to characterize the subsurface using wellbore logging, borehole imaging, fluid sampling, mini-frac tests, coring and drill cutting analysis. Down-hole temperatures measured at 3 km depth are about 80 degrees C, sufficiently high for direct-use heating. The well drilled through generally low porosity and low permeability Paleozoic sedimentary formations and into metamorphic basement rock, encountered at about 9,400 ft depth. Leveraging subsurface data obtained through CUBO, we investigated technical feasibility and design requirements of a doublet well system with horizontal laterals connected to a fracture network created through hydraulic fracturing. The EGS reservoir is sized to provide a nominal heat output in the range 5 to 10 MWth of continuous heating over a 15 year-lifetime with limited thermal drawdown. We applied the Gringarten Multiple parallel fracture model, the Cornell Discrete Fracture Simulator FOXFEM and the commercial simulator ResFrac to estimate required heat transfer area and design a potential hydraulic stimulation treatment. Reservoir simulations indicate that, depending on fluid flow rate and injection temperature, 2 to 3 km2 of effective fracture heat transfer area is required to supply the target heat output of 5 to 10 MWth over 15 years.

district heating↗

EGS Reservoir Modeling for Developing Geothermal District Heating at Cornell University: Preprint

Cornell University is pursuing development of an enhanced geothermal system (EGS) for providing heating to its main campus in Upstate New York. A ~10,000 ft (~3 km) deep vertical observation well ("CUBO") was drilled in 2022 to characterize the subsurface using wellbore logging, borehole imaging, fluid sampling, mini-frac tests, coring and drill cutting analysis. Down-hole temperatures measured at 3 km depth are about 80 degrees C, sufficiently high for direct-use heating. The well drilled through generally low porosity and low permeability Paleozoic sedimentary formations and into metamorphic basement rock, encountered at about 9,400 ft depth. Leveraging subsurface data obtained through CUBO, we investigated technical feasibility and design requirements of a doublet well system with horizontal laterals connected to a fracture network created through hydraulic fracturing. The EGS reservoir is sized to provide a nominal heat output in the range 5 to 10 MWth of continuous heating over a 15 year-lifetime with limited thermal drawdown. We applied the Gringarten Multiple parallel fracture model, the Cornell Discrete Fracture Simulator FOXFEM and the commercial simulator ResFrac to estimate required heat transfer area and design a potential hydraulic stimulation treatment. Reservoir simulations indicate that, depending on fluid flow rate and injection temperature, 2 to 3 km2 of effective fracture heat transfer area is required to supply the target heat output of 5 to 10 MWth over 15 years.

district heating↗

On the transferability of residence time distributions in two 10-km long river sections with similar hydromorphic units

Quantifying hydrologic exchange fluxes (HEFs) at the stream-groundwater interface and their residence time distributions (RTDs) in the subsurface are important for managing the water quality and ecosystem health in dynamic river corridors. However, direct simulating high-spatial resolution HEFs and RTDs can be time-consuming, especially for watershed-scale modeling. Efficient surrogate models linking RTDs to hydromorphic units (HUs) can be alternatives for simulating RTDs in large-scale models. A common concern of these surrogate models, though, is the transferability of the relationship between the RTDs and HUs from one river corridor to another. To address this issue, this work evaluates the HEFs and resulting RTD-HU relationships for two 10-km long river corridors along the Columbia River leveraging a one-way coupled three-dimensional transient surface-subsurface water transport modeling framework we previously developed. Applying such a framework at the two river corridors with similar HUs allows for quantitative comparisons of HEFs and RTDs using both statistical tests and machine learning classification models. Finally, our comparison shows that the similarity and transferability of the RTD-HU relationship is very low for the two investigated river sections, which suggests that devising a general algorithm to estimate RTDs based solely on surface water hydrodynamics and short-distance river channel topography data, as well as HU classification, might be nearly impossible.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Microbial Community Composition in Deep‐Subsurface Reservoir Fluids Reveals Natural Interwell Connectivity

Abstract The identification of natural fractures and the wells they connect is crucial for the development of geological reservoirs because it may have an important impact on reservoir model construction and hydraulic fracture propagation. In this study we investigated the use of a novel data source, the microbial community composition in the reservoir formation fluids, for identification of interwell connectivity caused by natural fractures. We verified this concept at a newly developed mesoscale enhanced geothermal system (EGS) field testbed located 4,850 ft (1,478 m) beneath ground surface at the Sanford Underground Research Facility in Lead, SD. Fluids produced at or near the EGS testbed were sampled and subjected to high‐throughput 16S rRNA gene amplicon sequencing to analyze the microbial community profile therein. Despite the typically substantial heterogeneity across the community profiles of samples spatially distributed (10 m to 1.9 km apart) throughout the site, samples from two wells at the EGS testbed showed highly similar microbial community composition, suggesting the two wells intersected the same natural fracture. This evidence of natural connectivity between the two wells at the EGS testbed was later corroborated by core log analysis and sewer camera surveys into the boreholes. Besides the field case described in this study, microbial community composition as a reservoir diagnostic tool would be applicable in a much broader context such as unconventional hydrocarbon exploitation, groundwater reservoir characterization, and environmental remediation, adding valuable “hard” data capable of pinpointing the origins of fluids unambiguously.

Zhang, Yuran↗

Structural Characterization of a Toppling Rock Slab From Array-Based Ambient Vibration Measurements and Numerical Modal Analysis

Accurate assessments of the internal structure and boundary conditions of unstable rock slopes are imperative for evaluating landslide hazard scenarios. However, instability characterization at depth remains challenging and is often limited by costly or invasive subsurface investigations. Here, we develop a new approach coupling array-based ambient vibration modal analysis and numerical modeling to improve structural characterization of rock slope instabilities at depth. We used ambient noise cross-correlation on 4 hr of seismic data recorded by an array of 30 nodal geophones at a 500-m-long toppling rock slab in Utah, USA to identify modal frequencies between 0.8 and 3.5 Hz and derive modal displacements. We show that transverse and longitudinal bending modes span the length of the instability, indicating an interconnected slab. Further, statistical comparison of field results with outputs from >1,000 finite element models with varying boundary conditions showed that the instability depth varies between 40–70 and 10–20 m in the middle and lateral regions, respectively. Our approach yields new information on the structural conditions of rock cliff and column instabilities at depth, which is not easily obtained by other means but is imperative for change detection monitoring and improved hazard assessments.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

ParFlow Sand Tank: A tool for groundwater exploration

The ParFlow Sand Tank model is an open source application designed to allow users to interactively simulate and visualize groundwater movement through the subsurface. The app is designed for both research and education; teaching hydrogeology concepts and making it easy explore and run sophisticated groundwater simulations. Our goal is to support increased accessibility and usability of research grade hydrology tools for research and teaching. The Sand Tank application simulates groundwater and surface water fluxes as well as contaminant transport in real time using the integrated physical hydrology model ParFlow (Kollet & Maxwell, 2006; Maxwell & Miller, 2005; Osei-Kuffuor et al., 2014) and the particle tracking code EcoSlim (Maxwell et al., 2019). ParFlow is a numerical hydrology model that simulates spatially distributed groundwater and surface water flow. It is a well established research tool with more than 90 publications documenting its development use to advance our understanding of groundwater dynamics and groundwater surface water interactions from the hillslope to the continental scale e.g. (Condon et al., 2020; Condon & Maxwell, 2019; Maxwell & Condon, 2016). It is designed for efficient parallel computation and has been run on many platforms spanning from laptops to supercomputers. However, one of the challenges of ParFlow is that it requires significant training and hydrologic expertise to develop simulations. The Sand Tank application makes this model accessible to anyone for education and exploration. Our application uses ParFlow for its simulation backend and ParaView for the data loading and processing. The communication infrastructure relies on the ParaViewWeb framework. We use model templates deployed in Docker images to setup the Sand Tank framework. Users can build the application locally or interact with it through our web deployment. When interacting with a template users can interactively change model parameters like subsurface processes or pump/inject water into the subsurface and watch the system respond to their changes in real time as the simulation runs. Additionally, our template setup will allow more advanced users to build custom templates of increasing complexity for both research and educational purposes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Revisiting Wagner’s Criteria to Predict Establishment and Retention of Alumina Scales on Ternary NiCrAl Alloys

Despite the advent of numerical modeling approaches and high-performance computing infrastructure, the design and development of corrosion-resistant high temperature alloys (> 500 °C) continue to be largely empirical and typically involve extensive experimentation. This is mainly due to the lack of a single unified physics-based model that can address the impact of multiple competing factors such as time, environment, alloy composition, microstructure, and geometry. The classical Wagner’s criteria have been foundational to estimate the minimum concentrations required of an oxide-forming element to establish and sustain a protective oxide scale. However, the formulation is primarily limited to lower-order alloy systems (binary alloys) and ignores the time dependence of subsurface compositional changes in the alloy. The lack of key data on the temperature and composition dependence of the solubility and transport of oxidants in multicomponent-multiphase alloys further exacerbates the problem. In the present work, a few of these limitations were addressed using a flux-based approach (FLAP) which tracks the spatiotemporal evolution of the fundamental flux balance between oxygen and the oxide-forming elements to enable the prediction of the formation of an external alumina scale in ternary NiCrAl alloys. In conclusion, the modeling results were validated with the literature findings and additional experimental work conducted in the present work.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Model Development for Thermal-Hydrology Simulations of a Full-Scale Heater Experiment in Opalinus Clay

Disposal of commercial spent nuclear fuel in a geologic repository is studied. In situ heater experiments in underground research laboratories provide a realistic representation of subsurface behavior under disposal conditions. Here, this study describes process model development and modeling analysis for a full-scale heater experiment in opalinus clay host rock. The results of thermal-hydrology simulation, solving coupled nonisothermal multiphase flow, and comparison with experimental data are presented. The modeling results closely match the experimental data.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Modeled estimates of permafrost hydrology and related fields for pan-Arctic region over the period 1980-2100

This dataset contains gridded estimates of total runoff (mm/day); subsurface runoff (mm/day); snow water equivalent (SWE, mm/day); vertical upward water flux of combined surface evaporation, evapotranspiration, and snow sublimation (mm/day); and soil temperature (C) across the pan-Arctic basin from simulations of the Permafrost Water Balance Model (PWBM v4). These data were generated to allow researchers to advance understanding of the changes unfolding in the Arctic's terrestrial water cycle under the influences of climate warming, hydrological cycle intensification, and permafrost thaw. The dataset will enable researchers to address important questions spanning multiple disciplines. For example, how will rising river flows exported to the coast impact critical zone ecosystems, near-shore ice dynamics, and ocean biogeochemical processes. Spatial resolution is 25x25 km with N=39926 grid cells spanning the domain. Three forcing datasets were used to drive simulations at an implicit daily time step over the period 1980-2100. Daily air temperature, precipitation, and wind speed data from the WATCH Forcing Data methodology applied to ERA5 reanalysis (W5E5) were used for meteorological forcings over the period 1980-2019. Simulations for the period 1980-2100 used meteorological data from two global climate models; IPSL-CM6A-LR and MPI-ESM1-2-HR. The PWBM hydrological outputs are organized by grid and month in gzipped ASCII text files within each archived tar file. Soil temperature is organized by grid cell and day of year from DOY 205 to DOY 260. No special software is required to work with these data. The package contains spatial domain and river basin information files. These data are most useful for analyses of the spatial and temporal variations in terrestrial hydrology and soil thermal dynamics. A manuscript describing the model simulations and associated analysis has been accepted for publication in The Cryosphere (Rawlins and Karmalkar, 2024).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Challenges in simulating ground interacting nuclear explosions

This paper summarizes recent above-ground nuclear explosion simulations as part of a broader effort to better characterize conditions within a fireball that may influence the chemical evolution of bomb materials and other materials entrained from the local explosion environment. A critical component of this work is validation against historic footage of atmospheric testing, requiring that we understand how the frequency-dependent sensitivity of the utilized film footage influences data captured in such images. We focus first on the early physics of a nuclear explosion in the atmosphere before discussing some of the technical challenges we seek to capture in late-time models that include more complex emplacement conditions and subsurface features. We discuss required physics packages (compressible hydrodynamics, radiation transport, as well as necessary ancillary tables such as equations of state (EOS) and opacities). Additionally, we note reasonable “shortcuts” one may make and their limitations, e.g., using ideal gas EOS, replacing spectrally resolved radiation with spectrally averaged radiation, and exchanging deterministic transport with diffusion. We then discuss an approach to achieving an equilibrated initial stress state for problems where buoyancy and subsurface lithostatic stress are important. Our methodology is presented in the context of LLNL’s ALE3D multiphysics code but may readily be implemented in other codes. In this paper, we start with a description of the challenges of NUDET simulations, followed by a presentation of the simulated intensity (flux) as it would appear on an analysis of the Dixie test. We then progressively introduce additional complexity in subsequent sections (near-surface burst and gravity initialization) before concluding.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

Reactive Transport Modeling with Physics-Informed Machine Learning for Critical Minerals Applications

This study presents a physics-informed neural network (PINN) framework for reactive transport modeling for simulating fast bimolecular reactions in porous media. Accurate characterization of cAhemical interactions and product formation in surface and subsurface environments is essential for advancing critical mineral extraction and related geoscience applications. The proposed methodology sequentially addresses the flow and diffusion–reaction subproblems. The flow field is computed using a mixed formulation, while the diffusion–reaction system is modeled via two uncoupled tensorial diffusion equations reformulated in terms of chemical invariants. PINNs are employed to solve the governing equations, enabling data-efficient, mesh-free prediction of chemical concentration fields. The framework is validated through a series of benchmark problems involving flow in heterogeneous porous media. Initial verification is conducted using patch tests for the flow field, followed by validation of the transport problem with emphasis on preserving non-negativity of concentrations. The complete fast bimolecular reaction scenario is then solved, yielding spatial distributions of reactants and product species. Results demonstrate that the PINNs-based approach effectively captures sharp, mixing-limited reaction fronts and dispersive mixing behavior, offering reliable predictions of reactive plume evolution. These capabilities are crucial for evaluating long-term subsurface behavior in applications such as fluid storage, energy extraction, and efficient extraction of critical minerals.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Estimation of hydraulic conductivity in a watershed using sparse multi-source data via Gaussian process regression and Bayesian experimental design

Enhanced water management systems depend on accurate estimation of subsurface hydraulic properties. However, geologic formations can vary significantly, so information from a single source (e.g., widely spaced boreholes) is insufficient in characterizing subsurface aquifer properties. Therefore, multiple sources of information are needed to complement the hydrogeology understanding of a region. Here, this study presents a numerical framework in which information from different measurement sources is combined to characterize the 3D random field in a multi-fidelity prediction model. Coupled with the model, a Bayesian experimental design was used to determine the best future sampling locations. The Upper Sangamon watershed in east-central Illinois was selected as the case study site, where the multi-fidelity Gaussian process model was used to estimate the hydraulic conductivity in the region of interest. Multi-source observation data were obtained from electrical resistivity and borehole pumping tests. The accuracy of the model prediction is dependent on the locations and the distribution of both high- and low-fidelity data. Furthermore, the multi-fidelity model was compared with the single-fidelity model. The uncertainties and confidence in the measurements and parameter estimates were quantified and used to design future cycles of data collection to further improve the confidence intervals.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

3-D Radiological Data Acquisition, Visualization and Modeling - 20211

The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) was tasked to investigate and remediate low activity radiological contamination from research and production of the nation's first nuclear weapons at the former DuPont Chambers Works Formerly Utilized Sites Remedial Action Program (FUSRAP) site (DuPont). The DuPont site had several buildings used for the Manhattan project that were demolished in the 1940's and 1950's apparently using heavy earthmoving equipment. Some of the contaminated rubble from the demolition appears to have been spread out by this equipment resulting in somewhat random scattering of radiologically contaminated soil and debris along with aqueous spills. Traditional investigative methods such as soil borings, test pits and 2-dimensional gamma walkovers were only partially successful in delineating the radiological contamination at the site. It was feared that even 'chasing' the contamination during remediation would miss contamination if the demolition resulted in discontinuous trails of radiologically contaminated soils. In evaluating the data generated over the interceding decades, the USACE determined that a better method to collect and process the remedial action radiological data was needed to enable the project team to optimize predictive planning and meet documentation expectations. The purpose of this paper is to provide an overview of the effort and progress to combine and organize radiological survey methods into a highly flexible sampling, modeling, and decision analysis approach that emphasizes the quality of decision-making during remediation. This innovative system blends multiple tools to develop a methodology that can extend MARRSIM [1] into the subsurface and provide tools that can be applied to other sites. (authors)

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

3D hydrogeophysical characterization of managed aquifer recharge basins

Aquifers are increasingly stressed. Managed aquifer recharge provides a potential solution to mitigate this stress and provide sustainable groundwater resources. Subsurface properties are known to have a strong control on the infiltration rates that can be achieved. However, these properties are often highly heterogeneous and difficult to assess with conventional probing techniques. Here, we show the application of 3D geophysical imaging to assess the recharge potential and its variation across several basins used for managed aquifer recharge. We link in-situ measurements of saturated hydraulic conductivity with the electrical resistivity of the subsurface to establish petrophysical relationships and use those relationships to estimate the distribution of hydraulic conductivity throughout the five recharge basins. Our results show a considerable variability in the hydraulic properties, i.e., soil texture and saturated hydraulic conductivity, that have a direct impact on potential infiltration rates. We use the 3D hydraulic property distributions to model groundwater recharge and provide estimates for infiltration rates and volumes, and use this approach to assess the impact of management activities on groundwater recharge performance. Having such data not only enables us to predict infiltration rates, but also provides means for optimizing such water infrastructure.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗