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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 253 records · Page 14
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Effect of sample size on the maximum value distribution of fatigue driving forces in metals and alloys

An analytical framework is presented to predict the effects of sample size on the maximum value distribution (MVD) of the driving forces for fatigue crack formation in metals and alloys. The distribution of the maximum driving force for fatigue crack formation over the domain follows the generalized extreme value theory in the limit as the domain size increases to infinity. Here, a simulation-based analysis of microstructure influences on fatigue resistance for polycrystalline metals and alloys is very costly, and reaching those limits is intractable. This work models the MVD of Fatigue Indicator Parameters (FIPs), which serve as surrogate measures for the driving force for fatigue crack formation, at finite sample sizes prior to their convergence to a limiting extreme value distribution. Large-scale crystal plasticity finite element (CPFE) simulations of FCC Al 7075-T6 with microstructure realizations of various sizes are incorporated to calibrate and evaluate the developed framework, and a total of ∼6.5 million grains of Al 7075-T6 are examined. The calibrated analytical solution agrees well with the brute force Monte Carlo simulation results extracted from the CPFE simulations. Furthermore, the developed formulation can predict the MVD of FIPs for different sample sizes using a size-dependent parameter, and it is capable of accurately extrapolating the MVD of FIPs for much larger microstructure sample sizes than the size used for its calibration.

Crystal plasticity↗
DOE OSTI2020

Accurate Efficiency Measurements for Emerging PV: A Comparison of NREL's Steady-State Performance Calibration Protocol Between Conventional and Emerging PV Technologies

Emerging PV technologies (e.g. Perovskite, and Quantum Dot) are commonly known to possess challenges for accurate performance measurement under the existing IEC 60904 series of standards, which were developed for conventional Si solar cells. Potential performance artifacts depending on scan rates and directions and light bias exposure history are often seen in those emerging solar cells. To avoid these artifacts and provide an unbiased and reliable efficiency measurement, NREL's Cell and Module Performance (CMP) Group has developed a steady-state performance calibration protocol - the asymptotic P MAX method. In this paper, we applied this procedure to four PV cell technologies, Si, CIGS, perovskite, and Quantum Dot (QD), and compared their performance variations between the transient and the steady-state conditions. By comparison, we found that the performance parameters ( i.e. V OC , I SC , FF, ..eta..) measured between fast I-V scans (and the asymptotic method (steady-state) change significantly for perovskite and QD cells. These changes do not happen for Si and CIGS cells. Furthermore, the statistical performance analysis on nearly 100 emerging cells received globally (including OPV, Perovskite, and QD) shows that over 70 % of the fast I-V scans have a relative performance deviation larger than 1% compared to those determined using the asymptotic P MAX scan. Given the complex dynamic behavior observed in emerging PV devices, the CMP group at NREL thus only certifies their steady steady-state performance using the Asymptotic P MAX method. We highly recommend similar steady-state performance calibration protocol for all researchers in emerging PV because accuracy in reported efficiencies is critical to the long-term success of those promising new PV technologies.

41 EE - Solar Energy Technologies Office (EE-4S)↗
DOE OSTI2021

Feature Detection

Focal Area(s): This proposal aims to develop and evaluate statistical models and machine learning algorithms for detecting and tracking features in spatiotemporal remotely sensed data with uncertainty quantification. We focus a particular application on the detection of sea ice leads and ridges in the Arctic and use these key sea ice features for model calibration and to gain insight into the physics of sea ice thermodynamics and deformation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

High dimensional predictions of suicide risk in 4.2 million US Veterans using ensemble transfer learning

We present an ensemble transfer learning method to predict suicide from Veterans Affairs (VA) electronic medical records (EMR). A diverse set of base models was trained to predict a binary outcome constructed from reported suicide, suicide attempt, and overdose diagnoses with varying choices of study design and prediction methodology. Each model used twenty cross-sectional and 190 longitudinal variables observed in eight time intervals covering 7.5 years prior to the time of prediction. Ensembles of seven base models were created and fine-tuned with ten variables expected to change with study design and outcome definition in order to predict suicide and combined outcome in a prospective cohort. The ensemble models achieved c-statistics of 0.73 on 2-year suicide risk and 0.83 on the combined outcome when predicting on a prospective cohort of ~4.2 M veterans. The ensembles rely on nonlinear base models trained using a matched retrospective nested case-control (Rcc) study cohort and show good calibration across a diversity of subgroups, including risk strata, age, sex, race, and level of healthcare utilization. In addition, a linear Rcc base model provided a rich set of biological predictors, including indicators of suicide, substance use disorder, mental health diagnoses and treatments, hypoxia and vascular damage, and demographics. Similar content being viewed by others

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Uncertainty quantification for high explosive reactant and product equations of state

Equations of state (EOSs) are typically represented as physics-informed models with tunable parameters that are adjusted to replicate calibration data as closely as possible. Uncertainty quantification (UQ) allows for the development of an ensemble of EOS parameters that are consistent with the calibration data instead of a single EOS. In this work, we perform UQ for the reactant and product EOSs for a variety of high explosives (HEs). In doing so, we demonstrate a strategy for dealing with heterogeneous (both experimental and calculated) data. We also use a statistical distance metric to quantify the differences between the various HEs using the UQ results.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2024

Reconnaissance with JWST of the J-region Asymptotic Giant Branch in Distance Ladder Galaxies: From Irregular Luminosity Functions to Approximation of the Hubble Constant

Abstract We study stars in the J-regions of the asymptotic giant branch (JAGB) of near-infrared color–magnitude diagrams in the maser host NGC 4258 and four hosts of six Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia): NGC 1448, NGC 1559, NGC 5584, and NGC 5643. These clumps of stars are readily apparent near 1.0 < F150W − F277W < 1.5 andm F150W = 22–25 mag with James Webb Space Telescope NIRCam photometry. Various methods have been proposed to assign an apparent reference magnitude to this recently proposed standard candle, including the mode, median, sigma-clipped mean, or a modeled luminosity function parameter. We test the consistency of these by measuring intrahost variations, finding differences of up to ∼0.2 mag that significantly exceed statistical uncertainties. Brightness differences appear intrinsic, and are further amplified by the nonuniform shape of the JAGB luminosity function, also apparent in the LMC and SMC. We follow a “many methods” approach to measure consistently JAGB magnitudes and distance moduli to the SN Ia host sample calibrated by NGC 4258. We find broad agreement with distance moduli measured from Cepheids, tip of the red giant branch, and Miras. However, the SN host mean distance modulus estimated via the JAGB method necessary to estimateH 0 differs by ∼0.19 mag among the above definitions, the result of different levels of luminosity function asymmetry. The methods yield a full range of 71−78 km s −1 Mpc −1 , i.e., a fiducial result ofH 0 = 74.7 ± 2.1(stat) ± 2.3(sys, ±3.1 if combined in quadrature) km s −1 Mpc −1 , with systematic errors limited by the differences in methods. Future work may seek to standardize and refine this promising tool further, making it more competitive with established distance indicators.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗
DOE OSTI2024

Temperature-dependent mechanical properties and crystal plasticity parameters for additively manufactured Haynes-214 alloy: Experiments and numerical modeling

Our experimental mechanical testing data demonstrated that the additively manufactured (AM) laser powder bed fusion (L-PBF) Haynes-214 alloy exhibits non-linear mechanical properties as the temperature rises from ambient to 870 °C. Crystal plasticity (CP) simulations provide an effective approach to gaining deeper insights into microstructure-property linkages under thermomechanical loading. This method can reduce the need for costly high-temperature mechanical testing while accounting for the effects of crystallographic texture and grain morphology on the mechanical behavior of AM materials. However, calibrating a CP model is time-consuming because individual simulations are computationally expensive and hundreds (or more) of iterations over parameter sets may be required. To address this issue, we have designed a machine learning-differential evolution (ML-DE) CP framework that can accurately interpolate the tensile properties of AM L-PBF Haynes-214 alloy across a wide temperature range from ambient to 870 °C, with minimal reliance on experimental data. The framework uses electron backscatter diffraction (EBSD) measurements to generate statistically equivalent microstructural volume elements to serve as inputs to the CP modeling framework. Stress–strain curves were generated from 1000 CP simulations, which serve as the training data set for the three ML regression algorithms explored: linear, extra-trees, and multi-layer perceptron. These three regression models were independently evaluated to compare their efficiency and identify the most suitable algorithm for the given problem. Results revealed that the extra-trees ML regressor outperforms the other models in both qualitative and quantitative aspects with an R 2 of 0.98. Subsequently, the differential evolution optimization approach is employed to calibrate the ML-based CP material parameters with experimental results obtained at various temperatures. Finally, temperature-dependent CP material parameters are formulated. The effectiveness and efficiency of the designed framework are validated through comparison with experimental results, demonstrating a high degree of agreement. These calibrated parametric constitutive equations enable further use of the CP model to study the deformation behavior of this alloy under a wide range of thermo-mechanical loading conditions.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Photo-z outlier self-calibration in weak lensing surveys

Calibrating photometric redshift errors in weak lensing surveys with external data is extremely challenging. In this work, we show that both Gaussian and outlier photo-z parameters can be self-calibrated from the data alone. This comes at no cost for the neutrino masses, curvature and dark energy equation of state w0, but with a 65% degradation when both w0 and wa are varied. We perform a realistic forecast for the Vera Rubin Observatory (VRO) Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) 3× 2 analysis, combining cosmic shear, projected galaxy clustering and galaxy - galaxy lensing. We confirm the importance of marginalizing over photo-z outliers. We examine a subset of internal cross-correlations, dubbed "null correlations", which are usually ignored in 3× 2 analyses. Despite contributing only ~ 10% of the total signal-to-noise, these null correlations improve the constraints on photo-z parameters by up to an order of magnitude. Using the same galaxy sample as sources and lenses dramatically improves the photo-z uncertainties too. Together, these methods add robustness to any claim of detected new Physics, and reduce the statistical errors on cosmology by 15% and 10% respectively. Finally, including CMB lensing from an experiment like Simons Observatory or CMB-S4 improves the cosmological and photo-z posterior constraints by about 10%, and further improves the robustness to systematics. To give intuition on the Fisher forecasts, we examine in detail several toy models that explain the origin of the photo-z self-calibration. Our Fisher code LaSSI (Large-Scale Structure Information), which includes the effect of Gaussian and outlier photo-z, shear multiplicative bias, linear galaxy bias, and extensions to LCDM, is publicly available at \href{https://github.com/EmmanuelSchaan/LaSSI}{https://github.com/EmmanuelSchaan/LaSSI}.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Database-wide hazard modelling of the onset of DIII-D tearing modes with field features

The rate of onset (hazard) of tearing modes is modelled probabilistically using statistical learning algorithms. Axisymmetric energy-density equilibrium fields are taken as raw high-dimensional input features which are reduced with principal component analysis. Signal processing of non-axisymmetric magnetics fluctuation array data provides the target information from which to learn. Model selection, visualization and calibration assessment procedures are detailed. Here, the analysis is deployed at large scale across the DIII-D tokamak database. Standard model selection criteria suggest that the energy-density post-processed feature is a better choice for modelling the onset rate compared to the non-processed equilibrium reconstruction solution. Two example applications of the learned rate function are demonstrated: (i) proximity-to-onset discharge monitoring and (ii) database analysis showing an (expected) observational global trend that the general hazard increases as a plasma performance metric increases. An important connection between the hazard function and its use as a conditional probability generator is reviewed in the Appendix.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

A probabilistic inverse prediction method for predicting plutonium processing conditions

In the past decade, nuclear chemists and physicists have been conducting studies to investigate the signatures associated with the production of special nuclear material (SNM). In particular, these studies aim to determine how various processing parameters impact the physical, chemical, and morphological properties of the resulting special nuclear material. By better understanding how these properties relate to the processing parameters, scientists can better contribute to nuclear forensics investigations by quantifying their results and ultimately shortening the forensic timeline. This paper aims to statistically analyze and quantify the relationships that exist between the processing conditions used in these experiments and the various properties of the nuclear end-product by invoking inverse methods. In particular, these methods make use of Bayesian Adaptive Spline Surface models in conjunction with Bayesian model calibration techniques to probabilistically determine processing conditions as an inverse function of morphological characteristics. Not only does the model presented in this paper allow for providing point estimates of a sample of special nuclear material, but it also incorporates uncertainty into these predictions. This model proves sufficient for predicting processing conditions within a standard deviation of the observed processing conditions, on average, provides a solid foundation for future work in predicting processing conditions of particles of special nuclear material using only their observed morphological characteristics, and is generalizable to the field of chemometrics for applicability across different materials.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Dark Energy Survey: DESI-independent angular BAO measurement

In this work, we present a measurement of the angular baryon acoustic oscillation (BAO) scale from the completed Dark Energy Survey (DES) dataset excluding the area of overlap with the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI). We follow the same methodology and validation process as in the DES Y6 BAO analysis. We interpret the impact of this measurement in the context of the statistical preference for 𝑤 0 ⁢𝑤 𝑎 cold dark matter (CDM) over Λ⁢CDM when combined with DES Y5 Type Ia supernovae (SN), Planck CMB, and DESI BAO. Based on our previous work, using the full Y6 DES BAO sample, in combination with SN, CMB and DESI data release 1 (DR1) BAO, added 0.3⁢𝜎 in this preference (from 3.7⁢𝜎 to 4.0⁢𝜎), but this ignored possible correlations between datasets. Using our new DESI-independent DES BAO likelihood instead, we find a smaller increase in the statistical preference for 𝑤 0 ⁢𝑤 𝑎 ⁢CDM, from 3.7⁢𝜎 to 3.8⁢𝜎 when using DESI DR1 BAO, and from 4.0⁢𝜎 to 4.1⁢𝜎 when updating to the more recent DESI data release 2 (DR2) BAO. These significances reduce to 3.1⁢𝜎 when using the new calibrated DES SN-Dovekie. Alongside this work, we publicly release baofit_wtheta, the BAO fitting code for the angular correlation function used in the DES Y6 BAO analysis.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Low-Activity Waste Glass Standards Preparation and Characterization for Calibration of Analytical Instruments

A matrix of seven low-activity waste (LAW) glasses was fabricated and characterized to be used by the Hanford Waste Treatment and Immobilization Plant (WTP) as analytical instrument calibration and matrix interference standards when measuring LAW glass compositions. The matrix of glasses was designed to represent the range of LAW glass compositions that will be generated by the WTP. Samples from each of the seven glasses were measured with electron probe microanalysis (EPMA), ion chromatography (IC), and bulk inductively coupled plasma mass spectroscopy (ICP-MS) to determine the variability and accuracy across batches and within individually poured glass bar samples. High relative percent differences and standard deviations were calculated for components with low concentrations due to instrument detection limits. IC and ICP-MS percent differences and standard deviations were higher at low component concentrations. Otherwise, variability in measured compositions from IC and ICP-MS was generally lower than measurements from EPMA, with the exclusion of Cl, F, Si, and B. Overall, the two methods proved comparable and complementary. From EPMA, IC, and ICP-MS data, volatile elements were underrepresented compared to batched compositions, which suggested loss of these elements during melting. EPMA data was statistically analyzed to evaluate homogeneity within single bars and whole compositions for each of the seven glasses. Most of the variability within glass compositions occurred at the bar-to-bar level; however, no clear systematic trends were observed. Based on these analyses, when using these glasses as reference material, it is recommended that the overall mean and variance of each composition be used for performing instrument calibrations and analytical corrections.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2020

A Bayesian analysis of nuclear deformation properties with Skyrme energy functionals

In spite of numerous scientific and practical applications, there is still no comprehensive theoretical description of the nuclear fission process based solely on protons, neutrons and their interactions. Furthermore, the most advanced simulations of fission are currently carried out within nuclear density functional theory (DFT). In spite of being fully quantum-mechanical and rooted in the theory of nuclear forces, DFT still depends on a dozen or so parameters characterizing the energy functional. Calibrating these parameters on experimental data results in uncertainties that must be quantified for applications. This task is very challenging because of the high computational cost of DFT calculations for fission. In this paper, we use Gaussian processes to build emulators of DFT models in order to quantify and propagate statistical uncertainties of theoretical predictions for a range of nuclear deformations relevant to describing the fission process.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

SnSe 2 thermal conductivity from optothermal Raman and Stokes/anti-Stokes thermometry

The optothermal Raman method is useful in determining the in-plane thermal conductivity of two-dimensional (2D) materials that are either suspended or supported on a substrate. We compare this method with the Stokes/anti-Stokes scattering thermometry method, which can play a role in both calibration of Raman peak positions as well as extraction of the local phonon temperature. This work demonstrates that the Stokes/anti-Stokes intensity ratio plays an important role in determining the in-plane thermal conductivity of 2D tin diselenide (SnSe 2 ) dry-transferred onto a polished copper (Cu) substrate. The statistically-averaged thermal conductivity of the 108 ± 24 nm-thick SnSe 2 yielded 5.4 ± 3.5 Wm −1 K −1 for the optothermal Raman method, and 2.40 ± 0.81 Wm −1 K −1 for the Stokes/anti-Stokes thermometry method, indicating that the Stokes/anti-Stokes thermometry method to calculate the thermal conductivity of a material can simultaneously increase both precision and accuracy. The uncertainty value was also lowered by a factor of 1.9 from the traditional optothermal Raman method to the Stokes/anti-Stokes thermometry method. The low in-plane thermal conductivity of 2D SnSe 2 , 1.3–2.9 times lower than bulk, is useful for applications in thermal and electrical energy conversion and thermoelectric devices.

2D materials↗
DOE OSTI2020

Geometric Scale-up Experiments on Fluidization of Geldart B Glass Beads

The objective of this work is to provide a valuable database from controlled experiments for validating computational models. Recently, coarse-grained techniques such as particle-in-cell (PIC) or coarse-grained discrete element modeling (DEM) have gained popularity due to their computational efficiency while modeling large-scale systems; however, the influence of model parameters and their sensitivities at different geometric scales and flow conditions remain to be analyzed. These datasets are critical for the multiphase flow research community to assess predictive capability of modeling techniques as well as elucidate the hydrodynamic behavior in these systems. This study performed fluidization experiments using three different test sections with internal diameters of 2.5, 4, and 6 in. The operating conditions, bed material, and range of flow velocities at the inlet were constant in all the units, which were not hydrodynamically scaled. Glass beads having a Sauter Mean Diameter of 332 μm were used. Superficial velocity was varied from 2.97 to 5.35 times the minimum fluidization velocity and the initial static bed height was 0.1524 m. The order in which the experiments were performed was randomized and replicates were included to provide uncertainty in measurements. Statistics of differential pressure and bed height from these tests were reported. Future plans include validating PIC methodology in the open-source software, MFiX (Multiphase Flow with Interphase Exchanges) using results from this study. This could further be extended to determine optimal model parameters using inverse techniques such as deterministic calibration or Bayesian inference.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Geometric Scale-up Experiments on Fluidization of Geldart B Glass Beads

The objective of this work is to provide a valuable database from controlled experiments for validating computational models. Recently, coarse-grained techniques such as particle-in-cell (PIC) or coarse-grained discrete element modeling (DEM) have gained popularity due to their computational efficiency while modeling large-scale systems; however, the influence of model parameters and their sensitivities at different geometric scales and flow conditions remain to be analyzed. These datasets are critical for the multiphase flow research community to assess predictive capability of modeling techniques as well as elucidate the hydrodynamic behavior in these systems. This study performed fluidization experiments using three different test sections with internal diameters of 2.5, 4, and 6 in. The operating conditions, bed material, and range of flow velocities at the inlet were constant in all the units, which were not hydrodynamically scaled. Glass beads having a Sauter Mean Diameter of 332 μm were used. Superficial velocity was varied from 2.97 to 5.35 times the minimum fluidization velocity and the initial static bed height was 0.1524 m. The order in which the experiments were performed was randomized and replicates were included to provide uncertainty in measurements. Statistics of differential pressure and bed height from these tests were reported. Future plans include validating PIC methodology in the open-source software, MFiX (Multiphase Flow with Interphase Exchanges) using results from this study. This could further be extended to determine optimal model parameters using inverse techniques such as deterministic calibration or Bayesian inference.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Detecting Long-period Variability in the SDSS Stripe 82 Standards Catalog

We report the results of a search for long-period (100 < P < 600 days) periodic variability in the SDSS Stripe 82 standards catalog. The SDSS coverage of Stripe 82 enables such a search because there are on average 20 observations per band in ugriz bands for about one million sources, collected over about 6 yr, with a faint limit of r ~ 22 mag and precisely calibrated 1%–2% photometry. We calculated the periods of variable source candidates in this sample using the Lomb–Scargle periodogram and considered the three highest periodogram peaks in each of the gri filters as relevant. Only those sources with gri periods consistent within 0.1% were later studied. We use the Kuiper statistic to ensure uniform distribution of data points in phased light curves. We present five sources with the spectra consistent with quasar spectra and plausible periodic variability. This SDSS-based search bodes well for future sensitive large-area surveys, such as the Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time, which, due to its larger sky coverage (about a factor of 60) and improved sensitivity (~2 mag), will be more powerful for finding such sources.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗