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At least 253 records · Page 14

Statistics of Cloud Optical Properties from Airborne Lidar Measurements

Cloud optical properties, such as extinction-to-backscatter ratio and depolarization ratio, have a significant impact on the accuracy of cloud extinction retrievals from lidar systems because parameterizations of these variables are often used in non-ideal conditions to determine cloud type and optical depth. Statistics and trends of these optical parameters were analyzed for four years, 2003-2007, of Cloud Physics Lidar data during five projects of varying geographic locations. Extinction-to-backscatter ratio (at 532 nm) was derived by calculating the transmission loss through the cloud layer, while depolarization ratio was computed using the parallel and perpendicular polarized 1064 nm channels. The majority of the cloud layers yielded an S-ratio between 10 and 40 sr with the S-ratio frequency distribution centered at 25 sr for ice clouds, 21 sr for mixed phase clouds, and 11 sr for water clouds. On average for ice clouds, S ratio slightly decreased with decreasing temperature, while depolarization ratio increased significantly as temperatures decreased. Trends for water and mixed phase clouds were also observed. Ultimately, these observed trends in optical properties as a function of temperature and geographic location will improve current parameterizations of extinction-to-backscatter ratio, which consequently increases accuracy in cloud optical depth and radiative forcing estimates.

Yorks, John E.↗

Test of spectral/spatial classifier

The author has identified the following significant results. The supervised ECHO processor (which utilizes class statistics for object identification) successfully exploits the redundancy of states characteristic of sampled imagery of ground scenes to achieve better classification accuracy, reduce the number of classifications required, and reduce the variability of classification results. The nonsupervised ECHO processor (which identifies objects without the benefit of class statistics) successfully reduces the number of classifications required and the variability of the classification results.

Landgrebe, D. A.↗

The design of optimum remote-sensing instruments

Remote-sensing instruments allow values for certain properties of a target to be retrieved from measurements of radiation emitted, reflected or transmitted by the target. The retrieval accuracy is affected by random variations in the many target properties which affect the measurements. A method is described, by which statistical properties of the target and theoretical models of its electromagnetic behavior can be used to choose values for the instrument parameters which maximize the retrieval accuracy. The technique is applicable to a wide range of remote-sensing instruments.

Peckham, G. E.↗

Microstructural Influence on Deformation and Fatigue Life of Composites Using the Generalized Method of Cells

A fully coupled deformation and damage approach to modeling the response of composite materials and composite laminates is presented. It is based on the semi-­‐analytical generalized method of cells (GMC) micromechanics model as well as its higher fidelity counterpart, HFGMC, both of which provide closed-form constitutive equations for composite materials as well as the micro scale stress and strain fields in the composite phases. The provided constitutive equations allow GMC and HFGMC to function within a higher scale structural analysis (e.g., finite element analysis or lamination theory) to represent a composite material point, while the availability of the micro fields allow the incorporation of lower scale sub­‐models to represent local phenomena in the fiber and matrix. Further, GMC's formulation performs averaging when applying certain governing equations such that some degree of microscale field accuracy is surrendered in favor of extreme computational efficiency, rendering the method quite attractive as the centerpiece in a integrated computational material engineering (ICME) structural analysis; whereas HFGMC retains this microscale field accuracy, but at the price of significantly slower computational speed. Herein, the sensitivity of deformation and the fatigue life of graphite/epoxy PMC composites, with both ordered and disordered microstructures, has been investigated using this coupled deformation and damage micromechanics based approach. The local effects of fiber breakage and fatigue damage are included as sub‐models that operate on the microscale for the individual composite phases. For analysis of laminates, classical lamination theory is employed as the global or structural scale model, while GMC/HFGMC is embedded to operate on the microscale to simulate the behavior of the composite material within each laminate layer. A key outcome of this study is the statistical influence of microstructure and micromechanics idealization (GMC or HFGMC) on the overall accuracy of unidirectional and laminated composite deformation and fatigue response.

Microscale Models↗

Graph Convolutional Network-Strengthened Topic Modeling for Scientific Papers

Machine learning has been woven into statistics to modernize topic modeling over textual documents written in natural language, and scientific paper search and recommendation can consequently offer higher accuracy instead of counting on traditional keyword-based search. However, topic distribution of a paper resulted from existing topic modeling techniques only relies on the statistics of words contained in the paper itself. We argue that community users’ views of a paper may also provide insights at the time of recommendation. For example, if a paper on fake image detection has been cited heavily by machine learning papers, such a feature should be absorbed in the embedding of this paper, so that it can be recommended for future query on machine learning. In this paper, we present a Graph Convolutional Network-strengthened Topic Modeling (GCN-TM) method, which employs GCN technique to refine topic modeling of scientific papers. A citation-oriented knowledge graph is constructed, and topic modeling is mapped to feature embedding of the comprising papers. On top of its own topics carried in its content, each paper learns topics from its neighbors and revise its embedding accordingly. Our empirical studies over real-life scientific literature has proved the necessity and effectiveness of our proposed approach.

Jia Zhang↗

Probabilistic Processing of Asynchronous Geiger-Mode Avalanche Photodiode Arrays for Background Rate Measurements

A system-level performance evaluation of Geiger-mode avalanche photodiode (GmAPD) arrays requires accurate measurement and prediction of the background rate of the device due to dark counts and other spurious detection events. Since a GmAPD detector reports only a binary value and timestamp associated with an avalanche event, dark count rates are typically measured by averaging thousands of frames to support a statistically significant measurement. For both synchronous and asynchronous detector, the Poisson distributed background rates are referenced to the time each pixel is armed. Unlike for synchronous GmAPD imagers where all the pixels are armed to an array-wide arm signal, an asynchronous pixel operates independently from its neighboring pixels; requiring the background rates to be calculated using an interarrival histogram. For both types of imagers, the background rate is typically evaluated by fitting an exponential distribution to a fixed window within a measured histogram of time intervals between detection events However, if the statistics of the background rate are insufficient – whether that is due to low population sizes, saturation, or a large dynamic range of population size across the array, the pixel, or array-wide, performance metrics may report results with varying accuracy. This paper reports on an implementation of an algorithm that evaluates GmAPD background rates based on statistical metrics rather than fixed windows. The algorithm functions by determining the appropriate integration window within the interarrival time histogram based on a per-pixel count rate set by a predetermined tolerable measurement error. The implementation of the algorithm allows us to characterize GmAPD arrays with orders of magnitude spread in background rates across the detector using common statistical parameters.

Mumolo, J.↗

Estimating trajectory correction requirements for the Outer Planets Grand Tour missions.

The estimation of trajectory correction requirements for the Outer Planets Grand Tour (OPGT) missions poses a unique and many-faceted problem for the systems analyst. In this paper the navigation concept for the OPGT is developed and illustrated. The limiting accuracies and performance of the combined radio/onboard optical system are examined. The combined orbit determination system is characterized by its accuracy and by its system risks. Such considerations are included with the statistical combination of maneuver estimates to produce preliminary delta V estimates for the planned OPGT missions.

Friedman, L. D.↗

The P prime(f) to N(h) inversion problem in ionospheric soundings

A general review is given of the inversion techniques used to derive the ionospheric electron density N as a function of altitude h from group path P versus frequency f measurements obtained by vertical incidence ionospheric sounders. The paper discusses the medium under investigation, the experimental techniques used to obtain the P(f) data, the theoretical considerations leading to the integral equation relating P(f) to N(h), and the assumptions made in the inversion process. The lamination inversion technique is then presented, with special attention given to mathematical difficulties arising from discontinuities in the P(f) function, infinities in the integrand, and in some cases unknown integration limits. Methods outlined for minimizing the uncertainties due to discontinuities include the use of redundant information - that is the two distinct P(f) functions available for a given N(h) profile - and the use of models based on statistical data. Mathematical procedures are discussed that increase significantly the efficiency and accuracy of the required numerical integrations. The accuracy of the inversion technique is deduced by comparing the resulting N(h) profile with N(h) data obtained by simultaneous but independent observations.

Jackson, J. E.↗

LANDSAT landcover information applied to regional planning decisions

Land cover information derived from LANDSAT is being utilized by Piedmont Planning District Commission located in the State of Virginia. Progress to date is reported on a level one land cover classification map being produced with nine categories. The nine categories of classification are defined. The computer compatible tape selection is presented. Two unsupervised classifications were done, with 50 and 70 classes respectively. Twenty-eight spectral classes were developed using the supervised technique, employing actual ground truth training sites. The accuracy of the unsupervised classifications are estimated through comparison with local county statistics and with an actual pixel count of LANDSAT information compared to ground truth.

Dixon, C. M.↗

Multicolor laser altimeter for barometric measurements over the ocean - Theoretical

It is noted that the optical path length from a satellite to the earth's surface strongly depends on the atmospheric pressure along the propagation path. The theoretical basis of a surface pressure measurement technique, which uses a two-color laser altimeter to observe the change with wavelength in the optical path length from a satellite to the ocean surface, is evaluated. The statistical characteristics of the ocean-reflected pulses and the expected measurement accuracy are analyzed in terms of the altitude parameters. The results show that it is feasible to obtain a pressure accuracy of a few millibars.

Gardner, C. S.↗

Crossed hot-wire data acquisition and reduction system

The report describes a system for rapid computerized calibration acquisition, and processing of data from a crossed hot-wire anemometer is described. Advantages of the system are its speed, minimal use of analog electronics, and improved accuracy of the resulting data. Two components of mean velocity and turbulence statistics up to third order are provided by the data reduction. Details of the hardware, calibration procedures, response equations, software, and sample results from measurements in a turbulent plane mixing layer are presented.

Westphal, R. V.↗

Theoretical and experimental analysis of laser altimeters for barometric measurements over the ocean

The statistical characteristics and the waveforms of ocean-reflected laser pulses are studied. The received signal is found to be corrupted by shot noise and time-resolved speckle. The statistics of time-resolved speckle and its effects on the timing accuracy of the receiver are studied in the general context of laser altimetry. For estimating the differential propagation time, various receiver timing algorithms are proposed and their performances evaluated. The results indicate that, with the parameters of a realistic altimeter, a pressure measurement accuracy of a few millibars is feasible. The data obtained from the first airborne two-color laser altimeter experiment are processed and analyzed. The results are used to verify the pressure measurement concept.

Tsai, B. M.↗

The Application of Probabilistic Methods to the Mistuning Problem

FMM is a reduced order model for efficiently calculating the forced response of a mistuned bladed disk. FMM ID is a companion program which determines the mistuning in a particular rotor. Together, these methods provide a way to acquire data on the mistuning in a population of bladed disks, and then simulate the forced response of the fleet. This process is tested experimentally, and the simulated results are compared with laboratory measurements of a fleet of test rotors. The method is shown to work quite well. It is found that accuracy of the results depends on two factors: the quality of the statistical model used to characterize mistuning, and how sensitive the system is to errors in the statistical modeling.

Griffin, J. H.↗

Precision Measurement of Black Hole Binary Dynamics: Analyzing the LISA Data Stream

One of the richest potential sources of insight into fundamental physics that LISA will be capable of observing is the inspiral of supermassive black hole binaries (BHBs). However, the data analysis challenge presented by the LISA data stream is quite unlike the situation for present day gravitational wave detectors. In order to make the precision measurements necessary to achieve LISA's science goals, the BHB signal must be distinguished from a data stream that not only contains instrumental noise, but potentially thousands of other signals as well, so that the "background" we wish to separate out to focus on the BHB signal is likely to be highly nonstationary and nongaussian, as well as being of scientific interest in its own right. In addition, whereas the theoretical templates that we calculate in order to ultimately estimate the parameters can afford to be somewhat inaccurate and still be effective for present day and near future detectors, this is not the case for LISA, and extremely high fidelity of the theoretical templates for high signal-to-noise signals will be required to prevent theoretical errors from dominating the parameter estimates. NVe, will describe efforts in the community of LISA data analysts to address the challenges regarding the specific issue of BHB signals. These efforts include using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo approach with the freedom to model the BHB and the other signals present in the data stream simultaneously, rather than trying to remove other signals and risk biasing the remaining data. The Mock LISA Data Challenge is a community of LISA scientists who generate rounds of simulated LISA noise with increasingly difficult signal content, and invite the LISA data analysis community to exercise their methods, or develop new methods, in an attempt to extract the parameters for the signals embedded in the mock data. In addition to practical approaches such ,is this to assess the level of parameter accuracy, one can apply the Fisher matrix formalism to assess both the statistical errors from noise and the theoretical errors

McWilliams, Sean T.↗

Roles of Engineering Correlations in Hypersonic Entry Boundary Layer Transition Prediction

Efforts to design and operate hypersonic entry vehicles are constrained by many considerations that involve all aspects of an entry vehicle system. One of the more significant physical phenomenon that affect entry trajectory and thermal protection system design is the occurrence of boundary layer transition from a laminar to turbulent state. During the Space Shuttle Return To Flight activity following the loss of Columbia and her crew of seven, NASA's entry aerothermodynamics community implemented an engineering correlation based framework for the prediction of boundary layer transition on the Orbiter. The methodology for this implementation relies upon the framework of correlation techniques that have been in use for several decades. What makes the Orbiter boundary layer transition correlation implementation unique is that a statistically significant data set was acquired in multiple ground test facilities, flight data exists to assist in establishing a better correlation and the framework was founded upon state of the art chemical nonequilibrium Navier Stokes flow field simulations. The basic tenets that guided the formulation and implementation of the Orbiter Return To Flight boundary layer transition prediction capability will be reviewed as a recommended format for future empirical correlation efforts. The validity of this approach has since been demonstrated by very favorable comparison of recent entry flight testing performed with the Orbiter Discovery, which will be graphically summarized. These flight data can provide a means to validate discrete protuberance engineering correlation approaches as well as high fidelity prediction methods to higher confidence. The results of these Orbiter engineering and flight test activities only serve to reinforce the essential role that engineering correlations currently exercise in the design and operation of entry vehicles. The framework of information-related to the Orbiter empirical boundary layer transition prediction capability will be utilized to establish a fresh perspective on this role, to illustrate how quantitative statistical evaluations of empirical correlations can and should be used to assess accuracy and to discuss what the authors' perceive as a recent heightened interest in the application of high fidelity numerical modeling of boundary layer transition. Concrete results will also be developed related to empirical boundary layer transition onset correlations. This will include assessment of the discrete protuberance boundary layer transition onset data assembled for the Orbiter configuration during post-Columbia Return To Flight. Assessment of these data will conclude that momentum thickness Reynolds number based correlations have superior coefficients and uncertainty in comparison to roughness height based Reynolds numbers, aka Re(sub k) or Re(sub kk). In addition, linear regression results from roughness height Reynolds number based correlations will be evaluated, leading to a hypothesis that non-continuum effects play a role in the processes associated with incipient boundary layer transition on discrete protuberances.

Campbell, Charles H.↗

Satellite Sampling and Retrieval Errors in Regional Monthly Rain Estimates from TMI AMSR-E, SSM/I, AMSU-B and the TRMM PR

Passive and active microwave rain sensors onboard earth-orbiting satellites estimate monthly rainfall from the instantaneous rain statistics collected during satellite overpasses. It is well known that climate-scale rain estimates from meteorological satellites incur sampling errors resulting from the process of discrete temporal sampling and statistical averaging. Sampling and retrieval errors ultimately become entangled in the estimation of the mean monthly rain rate. The sampling component of the error budget effectively introduces statistical noise into climate-scale rain estimates that obscure the error component associated with the instantaneous rain retrieval. Estimating the accuracy of the retrievals on monthly scales therefore necessitates a decomposition of the total error budget into sampling and retrieval error quantities. This paper presents results from a statistical evaluation of the sampling and retrieval errors for five different space-borne rain sensors on board nine orbiting satellites. Using an error decomposition methodology developed by one of the authors, sampling and retrieval errors were estimated at 0.25 resolution within 150 km of ground-based weather radars located at Kwajalein, Marshall Islands and Melbourne, Florida. Error and bias statistics were calculated according to the land, ocean and coast classifications of the surface terrain mask developed for the Goddard Profiling (GPROF) rain algorithm. Variations in the comparative error statistics are attributed to various factors related to differences in the swath geometry of each rain sensor, the orbital and instrument characteristics of the satellite and the regional climatology. The most significant result from this study found that each of the satellites incurred negative longterm oceanic retrieval biases of 10 to 30%.

Fisher, Brad↗

Measuring X-Ray Polarization in the Presence of Systematic Effects: Known Background

The prospects for accomplishing x-ray polarization measurements of astronomical sources have grown in recent years, after a hiatus of more than 37 years. Unfortunately, accompanying this long hiatus has been some confusion over the statistical uncertainties associated with x-ray polarization measurements of these sources. We have initiated a program to perform the detailed calculations that will offer insights into the uncertainties associated with x-ray polarization measurements. Here we describe a mathematical formalism for determining the 1- and 2-parameter errors in the magnitude and position angle of x-ray (linear) polarization in the presence of a (polarized or unpolarized) background. We further review relevant statistics including clearly distinguishing between the Minimum Detectable Polarization (MDP) and the accuracy of a polarization measurement.

Elsner, Ronald F.↗

Detection of Extremes with AIRS and CrIS

Climate change is expected to be detected first as changes in extreme values rather than in mean values. The availability of data of from two instruments in the same orbit, AIRS data for the past eleven years and AIRS and CrIS data from the past year, provides an opportunity to evaluate this using examples of climate relevance: Desertification, seen as changes in hot extremes, severe storm, seen as a change in extremely cold clouds and the warming of the polar zone. We use AIRS to establish trends for the 1%tile, the mean and 99%tile brightness temperatures measured with the 900 cm(exp -1) channel from AIRS for the past 11 years. This channel is in the clearest part of the 11 micron atmospheric window. Substantial trends are seen for land and ocean, which in the case of the 1%tile (cold) extremes are related to the current shift of deep convection from ocean to land. Changes are also seen in the 99%tile for day tropical land, but their interpretation is at present unclear. We also see dramatic changes for the mean and 99%tile of the North Polar area. The trends are an order of magnitude larger than the instrument trend of about 3 mK/year. We use the statistical distribution from the past year derived from AIRS to evaluate the accuracy of continuing the trends established with AIRS with CrIS data. We minimize the concern about differences in the spectral response functions by limiting the analysis to the channel at 900 cm(exp -1).While the two instruments agree within 100 mK for the global day/night land/ocean mean values, there are significant differences when evaluating the1% and 99%tiles. We see a consistent warm bias in the CrIS data relative to AIRS for the 1%tile (extremely cold, cloudy) data in the tropical zone, particularly for tropical land, but the bias is not day/night land/ocean consistent. At this point the difference appears to be due to differences in the radiometric response of AIRS and CrIS to differences in the day/night land/ocean cloud types. Unless the effect can be mitigated by a future reprocessing the CrIS data, it will significantly complicate the concatenation of the AIRS and CrIS data records for the continuation of trends in extreme values.

sampling bias↗