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At least 253 records · Page 14

Demand-adaptive Transit Design for Urban Transportation Hubs

In this study, we proposed a novel three-stage framework for planning the optimal demand-adaptive transit (DAT) at urban transportation hubs. Given the potential trip demand and road traffic condition, the proposed framework sequentially generates the optimal set of candidate routes, combines the outgoing routes and incoming routes at the hub, and derives the optimal fleet size and corresponding route frequency under the fixed budget. In particular, we build the route generation algorithm which maximizes passenger demand coverage with travel time deviation constraint. And a heuristic algorithm is further developed which yields near-optimal operation routes for real-time demand. The fleet optimization problem is formulated to minimize the weighted cost of energy savings, operation cost and trip revenue. We conduct comprehensive numerical experiments for planning DAT with electric buses at JFK airport in NYC using NYC taxi and for-hire vehicle trip data and GoogleMap speed data. The results show the superior performance of the proposed route generation algorithm which is able to cover citywide passenger demand with only 61 DAT routes. The results also suggest that the proposed DAT planning framework may serve over 47% of existing taxi and FHV demand by operating 18 routes using the fleet of 62 electric buses.

demand adaptive↗

US energy system transitions under cumulative emissions budgets

Cumulative emissions budgets are increasingly being used by decision makers and analysts to understand emissions reductions and associated transitions in the context of long-term goals such as limiting global mean temperature increase over the century to 1.5 or 2°C (IPCC, 2014). While previous studies have explored the implications of cumulative emissions budgets for the global economy, few studies have conducted regional and national-level analyses (Iyer et al., 2015; Riahi et al., 2015). This paper explores cumulative emissions budgets through 2050 consistent with the 1.5 and 2°C long-term temperature goals in the context of the United States. We employ a state-level model of the United States embedded within a global human-Earth system model (GCAM-USA) to study the implications of such budgets for the U.S. energy system (Iyer et al., 2017a; Iyer et al., 2017b). Our results show that achieving the stringent cumulative emissions budgets entails accelerated deployment of energy conserving technology, almost complete decarbonization of the power sector and increased electrification of buildings and industrial end-use sectors and decarbonization of transport employing a combination of electrification and the substitution of bioenergy for fossil fuels by the mid-century. We also find substantial state-level differences in the relative roles of these decarbonization strategies. Furthermore, our results highlight that increased ambition in the near-term will be valuable in setting the stage for smoother transformations in the future to achieve stringent cumulative emissions budgets consistent with long-term temperature goals established by the international community.

Feijoo, Felipe↗

Building Technologies Office 03.02.02.38 Milestone Report—Compressor Technology Development for Refrigerants with <150 Global Warming Potential

The major purpose of this project is to enable the development of compressors specifically designed for compatibility with low–global warming potential (GWP) refrigerants (with GWP values below 150). These compressors are intended for applications in residential and light commercial air-conditioning and heat pump systems. This report contains an exhaustive review of the existing literature with the intention of discerning the most efficacious methodologies currently in use for compressor modeling. This fundamental stage was designed to foster a comprehensive understanding of the intricate dynamics and mechanics of compressors. As a result, a model (PDSim) was selected to simulate scroll, rotary and linear compressor technologies.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Reconstruction of Charged Particle Tracks in Realistic Detector Geometry Using a Vectorized and Parallelized Kalman Filter Algorithm

One of the most computationally challenging problems expected for the High-Luminosity Large Hadron Collider (HL-LHC) is finding and fitting particle tracks during event reconstruction. Algorithms used at the LHC today rely on Kalman filtering, which builds physical trajectories incrementally while incorporating material e ects and error estimation. Recognizing the need for faster computational throughput, we have adapted Kalman-filterbased methods for highly parallel, many-core SIMD and SIMT architectures that are now prevalent in high-performance hardware. Previously we observed significant parallel speedups, with physics performance comparable to CMS standard tracking, on Intel Xeon, Intel Xeon Phi, and (to a limited extent) NVIDIA GPUs. While early tests were based on artificial events occurring inside an idealized barrel detector, we showed subsequently that our mkFit software builds tracks successfully from complex simulated events (including detector pileup) occurring inside a geometrically accurate representation of the CMS-2017 tracker. Here, we report on advances in both the computational and physics performance of mkFit, as well as progress toward integration with CMS production software. Recently we have improved the overall eciency of the algorithm by preserving short track candidates at a relatively early stage rather than attempting to extend them over many layers. Moreover, mkFit formerly produced an excess of duplicate tracks; these are now explicitly removed in an additional processing step. We demonstrate that with these enhancements, mkFit becomes a suitable choice for the first iteration of CMS tracking, and eventually for later iterations as well. We plan to test this capability in the CMS High Level Trigger during Run 3 of the LHC, with an ultimate goal of using it in both the CMS HLT and oine reconstruction for the HL-LHC CMS tracker.

Cerati, Giuseppe↗

Towards low-carbon low-energy concrete alternatives: Life cycle assessment of carbonated cementitious material-based precast panels

Cement is responsible for 22 % of all global CO 2 emissions from industrial processes. Technological innovation for developing and deploying of alternative materials will be required to decarbonize the cement industry. Carbonated cementitious materials (CCMs) are building materials that rely on carbon mineralization for their strength. A process-based cradle-to-gate life cycle assessment (LCA) was conducted to evaluate the global warming potential (GWP), cumulative energy demand, and water consumption of a lab-scale CCM-based precast panel compared to a conventional precast concrete panel. Since the CCM process is currently a lab-scale early-stage process, the CCM panel showed higher environmental impacts compared to the conventional panel. However, scenario analyses include mature production process scenarios. In conclusion, a sensitivity analysis revealed that the GWP of CCM can be lowered to below that of the conventional panel using polymers, fillers, low-carbon electricity sources, and optimized carbonation parameters.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Power Take-Off Design Study for a Small-Scale Oscillating Surge Wave Energy Converter for Powering the Blue Economy Applications

The power take-off (PTO) is an integral part of wave energy conversion, and the design process is nontrivial. Better PTOs, and better processes for selecting and designing PTO architectures for various applications, would benefit devices that assist in powering the blue economy by decreasing time and money spent on PTO design and increasing the overall energy capture performance of these devices. This paper chronicles the selection process of a PTO for a small-scale surge-type wave energy converter (WEC) for the purpose of informing future PTO selection processes. Three PTO architectures are evaluated in WEC-Sim: a hydraulic check valve PTO, a hydraulic active valving PTO, and a directly electrified PTO. Simple models of each PTO are constructed. Because a model for the small-scale device was initially unavailable, the PTOs are simulated on a large-scale device. The results are scaled down using Froude scaling and compared to results from directly simulating a small-scale model. Strong assumptions are made because this work is early in the design stages, and a coarse look at PTO options was desired. Specifically, the effectiveness of controls is investigated, along with the efficiency of energy conversion. However, energy capture is only part of the consideration; there are also logistic concerns to be considered when selecting a PTO. For example, components for large-scale WECs are so large and expensive that it may make sense to custom-build PTO components, but small-scale WECs would benefit from off-the-shelf availability because the cost of customization would be a significant portion of the total capital cost of deployment at a small scale. Submersible, off-the-shelf components are much easier to source for hydraulic PTOs. Because of highly effective controls, efficient energy conversion, and availability of marine-grade components, an active valving hydraulic PTO is selected for this small-scale surge-type WEC.

energy conversion/systems↗

Technology Development and Field Monitoring in nZEB - US Country report IEA HPT Annex 49 Task 3

The International Energy Agency (IEA) Heat Pumping Technologies (HPT) Annex 49, “Design and Integration of Heat Pumps for Nearly Zero Energy Buildings,” deals with the application of heat pumps (HPs) as a core component of the HVAC system for nearly or net-zero energy buildings. This report covers the Task 3 activities of the US team. Three institutions are involved on the US team and have worked on the following projects. 1) Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) summarized development activities since the conclusion of IEA HPT Annex 40 for several integrated HP (IHP) systems - electric ground-source IHP and air-source IHP versions and engine-driven AS-IHP version. 2) The University of Maryland partnered with ORNL and Blue Bear Management to develop a personal cooling device called RoCo that can provide personalized conditioned air to occupants in inadequately or unconditioned environments. With RoCo, building facility management can elevate the HVAC thermostat settings without compromising occupants’ thermal comfort. Researchers have found that a 4°F increase in thermostat settings can save 12–30% energy savings. Therefore, RoCo is a promising technology that can help reduce building energy consumption and facilitate achievement of net-zero energy building performance. 3) The National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) is working on a field study effort on the NIST Net-Zero Energy Residential Test Facility. Two air-source split-system HPs were installed in a residential, net-zero energy home that was constructed as a laboratory on the NIST campus in Gaithersburg, Maryland. The first HP was a two-stage, 7 kW (2 ton), 15.8 seasonal energy efficiency ratio (SEER), 9.05 heating seasonal performance factor (HSPF) conventionally ducted system; the second HP was a variable-speed, 10.6 kW (3 ton), 14 SEER, 8.35 HSPF, high-velocity ducted system. These two systems operated side by side, using separate supply ducts and a common return duct, on a weekly alternating schedule to condition the home that was operated with very consistent simulated thermal loads. The team wanted to determine whether the high-velocity system could provide comparable energy-use efficiency to the conventional system. The results of this study showed that it did meet the required loads and had slightly greater efficiency; the average cooling coefficient of performance (COP) was (0.40 ± 0.11) higher, and the average heating COP was statistically equal. A new firmware was provided at the end of the heating season that greatly improved the performance of the high-velocity system; its average heating COP went from (1.8 ± 0.9) to (2.5 ± 1.1) at a 95% confidence level. The new firmware heating COP averaged (1.05 ± 0.23) higher than the old firmware over the same outdoor temperatures. The defrost performance is very different for these two systems, yet they consumed equivalent energy per HDD. The conventional system uses a timed-initiate, temperature-terminate algorithm with auxiliary electric resistive heating, whereas the high-velocity system uses calculated evaporator parameters with a hot-gas bypass before a full reverse-cycle defrost with no supplementary resistive heat.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Power Take-Off Design Study for a Small-Scale Oscillating Surge Wave Energy Converter for Powering the Blue Economy Applications: Preprint

The power take-off (PTO) is an integral part of wave energy conversion, and the design process is nontrivial. Better PTOs, and better processes for selecting and designing PTO architectures for various applications, would benefit devices that assist in powering the blue economy by decreasing time and money spent on PTO design and increasing the overall energy capture performance of these devices. This paper chronicles the selection process of a PTO for a small-scale surge-type wave energy converter (WEC) for the purpose of informing future PTO selection processes. Three PTO architectures are evaluated in WEC-Sim: a hydraulic check valve PTO, a hydraulic active valving PTO, and a directly electrified PTO. Simple models of each PTO are constructed. Because a model for the small-scale device was initially unavailable, the PTOs are simulated on a large-scale device. The results are scaled down using Froude scaling and compared to results from directly simulating a small-scale model. Strong assumptions are made because this work is early in the design stages, and a coarse look at PTO options was desired. Specifically, the effectiveness of controls is investigated, along with the efficiency of energy conversion. However, energy capture is only part of the consideration; there are also logistic concerns to be considered when selecting a PTO. For example, components for large-scale WECs are so large and expensive that it may make sense to custom-build PTO components, but small- scale WECs would benefit from off-the-shelf availability because the cost of customization would be a significant portion of the total capital cost of deployment at a small scale. Submersible, off-the-shelf components are much easier to source for hydraulic PTOs. Because of highly effective controls, efficient energy conversion, and availability of marine-grade components, an active valving hydraulic PTO is selected for this small-scale surge-type WEC.

electric PTO↗

Cryogen-free modular scanning tunneling microscope operating at 4-K in high magnetic field on a compact ultra-high vacuum platform

One of the daunting challenges in modern low temperature scanning tunneling microscopy (STM) is the difficulty of combining atomic resolution with cryogen-free cooling. Further functionality needs, such as ultra-high vacuum (UHV), high magnetic field (HF), and compatibility with μm-sized samples, pose additional challenges to an already ambitious build. We present the design, construction, and performance of a cryogen-free, UHV, low temperature, and high magnetic field system for modular STM operation. An internal vibration isolator reduces vibrations in this system, allowing for atomic resolution STM imaging while maintaining a low base temperature of ∼4 K and magnetic fields up to 9 T. Samples and tips can be conditioned in situ utilizing a heating stage, an ion sputtering gun, an e-beam evaporator, a tip treater, and sample exfoliation. In situ sample and tip exchange and alignment are performed in a connected UHV room temperature stage with optical access. Multisite operation without breaking vacuum is enabled by a unique quick-connect STM head design. A novel low-profile vertical transfer mechanism permits transferring the STM between room temperature and the low temperature cryostat.

Instruments & Instrumentation↗

Ocean Deacidification Technologies for Marine Aquaculture

The increase in partial pressure of CO 2 in the oceans directly affects the productivity and survival of coastal industries and ecosystems. For marine aquaculture, the decreased alkalinity of seawater results in reduced availability of carbonates for marine organisms to build their shells, leading to decreased aquaculture quality and productivity. The industry has been implementing recirculating aquaculture systems (RASs) to reduce CO 2 in feedwaters, but recent interest in ocean-based CO 2 capture has led to additional strategies that may be relevant. The new methods in addition to CO 2 removal offer capture options for enhanced aquaculture sustainability. Here, we review and compare early-stage and commercially available technologies for deacidification of seawater and their suitability for aquaculture. Most methods considered rely on a voltage-induced pH swing to shift the carbonate/bicarbonate equilibrium toward the release of CO 2 , with subsequent capture of the released CO 2 as a gas or as solid mineral carbonates. The modular design and distributed deployment potential of these systems offers promise, but current demonstrations are limited to bench scale, highlighting the need for sustained research and development before they can be implemented for marine aquaculture.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Chemical changes in thirdhand smoke associated with remediation using an ozone generator

Ozonation is a common remediation approach to eliminate odors from mold, tobacco and fire damage in buildings. Little information exists to: 1) assess its effectiveness; 2) provide guidance on operation conditions; and 3) identify potential risks associated with the presence of indoor ozone and ozonation byproducts. The goal of this study is to evaluate chemical changes in thirdhand smoke (THS) aerosols induced by high levels of ozone, in comparison with THS aerosols aged under similar conditions in the absence of ozone. Samples representing different stages of smoke aging in the absence of ozone, including freshly emitted secondhand smoke (SHS) and THS, were collected inside an 18-m 3 room-sized chamber over a period of 42 h after six cigarettes were consumed. The experiments involved collection and analysis of gas phase species including volatile organic compounds (VOCs), volatile carbonyls, semivolatile organic compounds (SVOCs), and particulate matter. VOC analysis was carried out by gas chromatography/mass spectrometry with a thermal desorption inlet (TD-GC/MS), and volatile carbonyls were analyzed by on-line derivatization with dinitrophenylhydrazine (DNPH), followed by liquid chromatography with UV/VIS detection. SVOCs were extracted from XAD-coated denuders and Teflon-coated fiberglass filters in the absence of ozone. In those extracts, tobacco-specific nitrosamines (TSNAs) and other SVOCs were analyzed by gas chromatography with positive chemical ionization-triple quadrupole mass spectrometric detection (GC/PCI-QQQ-MS), and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) were quantified by gas chromatography with ion trap mass spectrometric detection (GC/IT-MS) in selected ion monitoring mode. Particulate matter concentration was determined gravimetrically. In a second experiment, a 300 mg h -1 commercial ozone generator was operated during 1 h, one day after smoke was generated, to evaluate the remediation of THS by ozonation. VOCs and volatile carbonyls were analyzed before and after ozonation. Extracts from fabrics that were exposed in the chamber before and after ozonation as surrogates for indoor furnishings were analyzed by GC/IT-MS, and aerosol size distribution was studied with a scanning mobility particle sizer. Ozone concentration was measured with a photometric detector. An estimated 175 mg ozone reacted with THS after 1 h of treatment, corresponding to 58% of the total O 3 released during that period. Fabric-bound nicotine was depleted after ozonation, and the surface concentration of PAHs adsorbed to fabric specimens decreased by an order of magnitude due to reaction with ozone, reaching pre-smoking levels. These results suggest that ozonation has the potential to remove harmful THS chemicals from indoor surfaces. However, gas phase concentrations of volatile carbonyls, including formaldehyde, acetaldehyde and acetone were higher immediately after ozonation. Ultrafine particles (UFP, in most cases with size <60 nm) were a major ozonation byproduct. UFP number concentrations peaked shortly after ozonation ended, and remained at higher-than background levels for several hours. Based on these results, minimum re-entry times after ozone treatment were predicted for different indoor scenarios. Clearly defining re-entry times can serve as a practical measure to prevent acute exposures to ozone and harmful ozonation byproducts after treatment. This study evaluated potential benefits and risks associated with THS remediation using ozone, providing insights into this technology.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Continental rift evolution and drainage reorganization along the Dead Sea rift since the Miocene

The Dead Sea fault is a section of the Arabian-African plate boundary. Widespread field relations indicate that three major drainage systems (stages) occupied the landscape west of the Dead Sea fault since its initiation at ca. 20 Ma. Specifically, (1) an early to middle Miocene drainage system, only minorly reconfigured by the fault (all sediments of this system belong to the Hazeva Formation); (2) a late Miocene to early Pleistocene fault-parallel drainage system named Paran-Neqarot (all sediments of this system belong to the Arava and Zehiha Formations; and (3) the early Pleistocene to present drainage configuration. The temporal and spatial frameworks of drainage stage 1 are generally constrained by radiometric dating of interfingering volcanic units, and the onset and temporal and spatial frameworks of drainage stage 3 are well constrained by cosmogenic 10 Be surface exposure ages. The timing and longevity of the rift-parallel drainage (stage 2) have until now been evasive to direct dating. The overall time gap between stages 1 and 3 is ~12–13 million years. Thus, an early age (within this time gap) of stage 2 would imply an immediate response of drainage reorganization to rift tectonics, while a later age of this drainage system would imply a delayed response. We present 11 10 Be- 26 Al cosmogenic burial ages of alluvial and colluvial units related to the fault-parallel drainage system (stage 2), which collectively constrain the time of deposition of the Arava Formation sediments in the central Negev to ca. 8 Ma. The general lack of stratigraphic order, together with the large dispersion of ages both across and within the sampling sites, attests to significant recycling of sediments from drainage stage 1 into the Arava Formation deposits. The termination of Arava and Zehiha Formation sediment deposition at ca. 1.8 Ma was determined previously using cosmogenic exposure ages of desert pavements that cover the formations. Combining the previously published data with our new data, we established the longevity and character of the Paran-Neqarot drainage system. In conlcusion, this framework highlights the temporal aspect of drainage system build-up and collapse as it responded to transform and extensional plate boundary tectonics during the Neogene.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Two-loop mixed QCD-electroweak amplitudes for Z+jet production at the LHC: bosonic corrections

Abstract We present a calculation of the bosonic contribution to the two-loop mixed QCD-electroweak scattering amplitudes forZ-boson production in association with one hard jet at hadron colliders. We employ a method to calculate amplitudes in the ’t Hooft-Veltman scheme that reduces the amount of spurious non-physical information needed at intermediate stages of the computation, to keep the complexity of the calculation under control. We compute all the relevant Feynman integrals numerically using the Auxiliary Mass Flow method. We evaluate the two-loop scattering amplitudes on a two-dimensional grid in the rapidity and transverse momentum of theZboson, which has been designed to yield a reliable numerical sampling of the boosted-Zregion. This result provides an important building block for improving the theoretical modelling of a key background for monojet searches at the LHC.

Physics↗

Lessons Learned on Prize Design in the Perovskite Startup Prize

In 2018, the U.S. Department of Energy's Solar Energy Technologies Office and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory set out to develop a repeatable, predictable prize model with the American-Made Challenges. A new model launched by the Solar Energy Technologies Office in March 2021 was the American-Made Perovskite Startup Prize. This new prize aimed to accelerate the growth of the domestic perovskite industry and support the rapid development of solar cells and modules that use perovskite materials. By sharing the outputs of the prize, we hope that our lessons learned will help continue to build the clean tech entrepreneurship support ecosystem and influence how a successful prize design can be achieved.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Engineering evaluation of the EQSIM simulated ground-motion database: The San Francisco Bay Area region

Ground-motion simulations for infrequent earthquake scenarios are gaining increasing interest in the engineering community for their potential to inform performance-based structural design and assessment, particularly in regions where major earthquakes are expected, but recordings from consistent historical events are not available. However, the absence of empirical data makes the evaluation of such scenarios and the interpretation of the simulation results very challenging. In this context, this paper presents the evaluation of the first EQSIM (v.1.1.0) ground-motion simulations generated for the San Francisco Bay Area (SFBA) region. The current database, which is at the first stages of development, includes eight realizations of a Hayward Fault M w 7 event. The evaluation of the simulated motions is first conducted on the average ground-motion amplitudes through comparison against the NGA-W2 GMPEs and a selected population of real records. A methodology for selecting a population of real records consistent with the simulated event is proposed. The objective of the proposed evaluation is twofold: (1) build confidence in the realistic character of the simulated motions for their use in engineering applications and (2) offer a critical physics-based interpretation of the simulation results that can help improve key features of the simulation models. To further investigate the implications of using the simulated ground motions for site-specific structural assessments, the ASCE7-16 approach is employed for the analysis of two hazard-consistent near-field sites in the SFBA. Results are discussed. Furthermore, this study offers a critical review of the EQSIM (v.1.1.0) SFBA ground-motion simulations and suggestions for improving the earthquake rupture models.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Regional Relative Risk, a Physics-Based Metric for Characterizing Airborne Infectious Disease Transmission

Airborne infectious disease transmission events occur over a wide range of spatial scales and can be an important means of disease transmission. Physics- and biology-based models can assist in predicting airborne transmission events, overall disease incidence, and disease control strategy efficacy. We describe a new theory that extends current approaches for the case in which an individual is infected by a single airborne particle, including the scenario in which numerous infectious particles are present in the air but only one causes infection. A single infectious particle can contain more than one pathogenic microorganism and be physically larger than the pathogen itself. This approach allows robust relative risk estimates even when there is wide variation in (i) individual exposures and (ii) the individual response to that exposure (the pathogen dose-response function can take any mathematical form and vary by individual). Based on this theory, we propose the regional relative risk—a new metric, distinct from the traditional relative risk metric, that compares the risk between two regions. In theory, these regions can range from individual rooms to large geographic areas. In this paper, we apply the regional relative risk metric to outdoor disease transmission events over spatial scales ranging from 50 m to 20 km, demonstrating that in many common cases minimal input information is required to use the metric. Also, we demonstrate that the model predictions are consistent with data from prior outbreaks. Future efforts could apply and validate this theory for other spatial scales, such as transmission within indoor environments. This work provides context for (i) the initial stages of an airborne disease outbreak and (ii) larger-scale disease spread, including unexpected low-probability disease “sparks” that potentially affect remote populations, a key practical issue in controlling airborne disease outbreaks.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Microstructure and high temperature properties of tungsten processed via electron beam melting additive manufacturing

There is considerable interest in the adoption of additive manufacturing for processing refractory metals. The layer-wise fabrication approach enables opportunities for producing complex geometries which cannot be otherwise be achieved via powder metallurgy. However, the processing science is still in its nascent stages and structure–property relations are relatively unexplored. Fundamental research is needed to further develop the technology and enable the fabrication of refractory metals for high temperature applications. Here we focus on the processing of pure tungsten using electron beam melting additive manufacturing. Experimentally we develop a suitable processing window for achieving high density crack free material. Microstructural analysis reveals that the microstructure generally consists of a columnar structure with a (111) build direction fiber preference, although, fiber switching was observed. Process induced deformation is believed to drive the formation of subgrains whose boundaries exhibit a high dislocation density. Additionally, high temperature tensile testing reveals that the material exhibits excellent properties closer to that of annealed tungsten. Significant mechanical anisotropy was observed to be present which is likely driven by strong crystallographic texture.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

LandScan Mosaic

The LandScan program at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), in collaboration with the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency (NGA), continues to deliver the most accurate and up to date global, high resolution gridded population data. Additionally, the latest advancements in the LandScan HD methodology led to reduced latency in development of rapid updates for geopolitical events. With momentum towards reporting more up to date population estimates, feedback from the user community expressed interest in reporting population estimates in ranges - whether to express a level of uncertainty or confirm to leadership and stakeholders the modeled data are estimates. Building upon the need to understand uncertainty or confidence in the modeled data and report ranges at the global scale, LandScan Mosaic was developed. LandScan Mosaic represents the next generation of high-resolution population modeling, building upon the established success of previous LandScan HD iterations. While LandScan HD employed a deterministic big data fusion approach, LandScan Mosaic enhances this methodology by integrating advanced machine learning techniques to impute missing, yet crucial, population model parameters. This advancement allows for probabilistic modeling of building occupancy and population distribution, incorporating uncertainty quantification through Monte Carlo sampling methods. By combining big data fusion with machine learning-driven imputation and stochastic modeling, LandScan Mosaic provides a more comprehensive and robust representation of population dynamics. LandScan Mosaic will be following the in the footsteps of its longstanding counterpart LandScan Global and releasing a global gridded population raster, at the 3-arcsecond resolution. This technical report documents the current stage of development of LandScan Mosaic, detailing the methodologies and data sources behind the modeling. Stakeholders are encouraged to use this document as an authoritative reference for insight into Mosaic’s data development processes. However, readers should note that LandScan Mosaic remains in a late-stage research and development phase, and methodologies and data presented here are subject to refinements ahead of the anticipated global release in Summer 2025. Feedback and inquiries from users and stakeholders are welcomed as we continue to refine and enhance this important population resource.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗