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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 253 records · Page 14
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Future Projection of Tropical Upper-Tropospheric Troughs and Implications for Tropical Cyclone Activity

Summertime tropical upper-tropospheric troughs (TUTTs) provide a unified framework to better understand how extratropical and tropical forcings jointly modulate basin-scale tropical cyclone (TC) activity. In this study, we examine future changes in TUTTs and their implications for TC activity. Multimodel ensemble-mean projections from 45 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) models suggest a contraction of the Pacific TUTT and an expansion of the Atlantic TUTT as the climate warms. Consistently, future changes in environment-based TC indices indicate that the large-scale conditions will become more favorable for TC genesis and intensification over the central North Pacific but less favorable over the tropical North Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico. Utilizing a TC-permitting large-ensemble dataset [i.e., the Database for Policy Decision-Making for Future Climate Change (d4PDF)] that adequately captures the observed interannual TUTT–TC relationships, we further confirm the impacts of projected TUTT changes on the TC activity in a warmer climate. In contrast, the TUTT–TC relationship is poorly represented in most CMIP6 High-Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP) models; such deficiencies call for caution when assessing future TC risk based on explicitly tracked TCs in these models. Additionally, CMIP6 projections show large intermodel spread in TUTT changes, implying uncertainty in projected TC activity, especially over the central-to-eastern Pacific and the North Atlantic. This intermodel spread is associated with interhemispheric sea surface temperature warming asymmetry, which leads to a meridional shift of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) and the simultaneous weakening or strengthening of TUTTs in the North Pacific and North Atlantic. The potential contributions of anthropogenic aerosol forcing and oceanic circulation to this interhemispheric warming asymmetry are briefly examined.

Climate Change↗
DOE OSTI2020

Modeling Functional Organic Chemistry in Arctic Rivers: An Idealized Siberian System

Rivers of the Arctic will become ever more important for the global climate, since they carry a majority of continental dissolved organic carbon flux into the rapidly changing polar ocean. Aqueous organics comprise a wide array of functional groups, several of which are likely to impact coastal and open water biophysical properties. Light attenuation, interfacial films, aerosol formation, gas release and momentum exchange can all be cited. We performed Lagrangian kinetic modeling for the evolution of riverine organic chemistry as the molecules in question make their way from the highlands to Arctic outlets. Classes as diverse as the proteins, sugars, lipids, re-condensates, humics, bio-tracers and small volatiles are all included. Our reduced framework constitutes an idealized northward flow driving a major hydrological discharge rate and primarily representing the Russian Lena. Mountainous, high solute and tundra sources are all simulated, and they meet up at several points between soil and delta process reactors. Turnover rates are parameterized beginning with extrapolated coastal values imposed along a limited tributary network, with connections between different terrestrial sub-ecologies. Temporal variation of our total dissolved matter most closely resembles the observations when we focus on the restricted removal and low initial carbon loads, suggesting relatively slow transformation along the water course. Thus, channel combinations and mixing must play a dominant role. Nevertheless, microbial and photochemical losses help determine the final concentrations for most species. Chemical evolution is distinct for the various functionalities, with special contributions from pre- and post-reactivity in soil and delta waters. Several functions are combined linearly to represent the collective chromophoric dissolved matter, characterized here by its absorption. Tributaries carry the signature of lignin phenols to segregate tundra versus taiga sources, and special attention is paid to the early then marine behaviors of low molecular weight volatiles. Heteropolycondensates comprise the largest percentage of reactive carbon in our simulations due to recombination/accumulation, and they tend to be preeminent at the mouth. Outlet concentrations of individual structures such as amino acids and absorbers lie above threshold values for biophysical influence, on the monolayer and light attenuation. The extent of coastal spreading is examined through targeted regional box modeling, relying on salinity and color for calibration. In some cases, plumes reach the scale of peripheral arctic seas, and amplification is expected during upcoming decades. Conclusions are mapped from the Lena to other boreal discharges, and future research questions are outlined regarding the bonding type versus mass release as permafrost degrades. Dynamic aqueous organic coupling is recommended for polar system models, from headwaters to coastal diluent.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Discovering a reaction–diffusion model for Alzheimer’s disease by combining PINNs with symbolic regression

Misfolded tau proteins play a critical role in the progression and pathology of Alzheimer's disease. Recent studies suggest that the spatio-temporal pattern of misfolded tau follows a reaction-diffusion type equation. However, the precise mathematical model and parameters that characterize the progression of misfolded protein across the brain remain incompletely understood. Here, we use deep learning and artificial intelligence to discover a mathematical model for the progression of Alzheimer's disease using longitudinal tau positron emission tomography from the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative database. Specifically, we integrate physics informed neural networks (PINNs) and symbolic regression to discover a reaction-diffusion type partial differential equation for tau protein misfolding and spreading. First, we demonstrate the potential of our model and parameter discovery on synthetic data. Then, we apply our method to discover the best model and parameters to explain tau imaging data from 46 individuals who are likely to develop Alzheimer's disease and 30 healthy controls. Our symbolic regression discovers different misfolding models f(c) for two groups, with a faster misfolding for the Alzheimer's group, f(c) = 0.23c 3 – 1.34c 2 + 1.11c, than for the healthy control group, f(c) = –c 3 + 0.62c 2 + 0.39c. Our results suggest that PINNs, supplemented by symbolic regression, can discover a reaction-diffusion type model to explain misfolded tau protein concentrations in Alzheimer's disease. Furthermore, we expect our study to be the starting point for a more holistic analysis to provide image-based technologies for early diagnosis, and ideally early treatment of neurodegeneration in Alzheimer's disease and possibly other misfolding-protein based neurodegenerative disorders.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Biomass-burning smoke's properties and its interactions with marine stratocumulus clouds in WRF-CAM5 and southeastern Atlantic field campaigns

Abstract. A large part of the uncertainty in climate projections comes from uncertain aerosol properties and aerosol–cloud interactions as well as the difficulty in remotely sensing them. The southeastern Atlantic functions as a natural laboratory to study biomass-burning smoke and to constrain this uncertainty. We address these gaps by comparing the Weather Research and Forecasting with Chemistry Community Atmosphere Model (WRF-CAM5) to the multi-campaign observations ORACLES (ObseRvations of Aerosols above CLouds and their intEractionS), CLARIFY (CLoud–Aerosol–Radiation Interaction and Forcing), and LASIC (Layered Atlantic Smoke Interactions with Clouds) in the southeastern Atlantic in August 2017 to evaluate a large range of the model's aerosol chemical properties, size distributions, processes, and transport, as well as aerosol–cloud interactions. Overall, while WRF-CAM5 is able to represent smoke properties and transport, some key discrepancies highlight the need for further analysis. Observations of smoke composition show an overall decrease in aerosol mean diameter as smoke ages over 4–12 d, while the model lacks this trend. A decrease in the mass ratio of organic aerosol (OA) to black carbon (BC), OA:BC, and the OA mass to carbon monoxide (CO) mixing ratio, OA:CO, suggests that the model is missing processes that selectively remove OA from the particle phase, such as photolysis and heterogeneous aerosol chemistry. A large (factor of ∼2.5) enhancement in sulfate from the free troposphere (FT) to the boundary layer (BL) in observations is not present in the model, pointing to the importance of properly representing secondary sulfate aerosol formation from marine dimethyl sulfide and gaseous SO2 smoke emissions. The model shows a persistent overprediction of aerosols in the marine boundary layer (MBL), especially for clean conditions, which multiple pieces of evidence link to weaker aerosol removal in the modeled MBL than reality. This evidence includes several model features, such as not representing observed shifts towards smaller aerosol diameters, inaccurate concentration ratios of carbon monoxide and black carbon, underprediction of heavy rain events, and little evidence of persistent biases in modeled entrainment. The average below-cloud aerosol activation fraction (NCLD/NAER) remains relatively constant in WRF-CAM5 between field campaigns (∼0.65), while it decreases substantially in observations from ORACLES (∼0.78) to CLARIFY (∼0.5), which could be due to the model misrepresentation of clean aerosol conditions. WRF-CAM5 also overshoots an observed upper limit on liquid cloud droplet concentration around NCLD= 400–500 cm−3 and overpredicts the spread in NCLD. This could be related to the model often drastically overestimating the strength of boundary layer vertical turbulence by up to a factor of 10. We expect these results to motivate similar evaluations of other modeling systems and promote model development to reduce critical uncertainties in climate simulations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Adaptive model tuning studies for non-invasive diagnostics and feedback control of plasma wakefield acceleration at FACET-II

Beam-driven plasma wakefield acceleration (PWFA) achieves the same energy gain in a single meter, for which conventional accelerators require several kilometers, however much work is still required to match the beam quality of conventional accelerators. The PWFA processes to be studied at the FACET-II facility will utilize extremely short (down to a few fs) high energy (10 GeV), high charge (few nC) electron and eventually positron bunches. The PWFA process is extremely sensitive to the detailed longitudinal current profiles of these bunches and it would be of great benefit to have precise measurement and control of these profiles. We present an adaptive model tuning technique for FACET-II to adaptively tune online models based on real time accelerator and beam data to continuously provide a non-invasive diagnostic which predicts the longitudinal phase space (LPS) of extremely short and highly compressed electron beams, which otherwise require destructive X-band transverse deflecting cavity (XTCAV)-based measurements. Based on simulation studies, our method has the potential for: (1). The development of a non-invasive longitudinal phase space diagnostic by adaptively tuning models based on non-invasive measurements such as energy spread spectra which could be recorded at all of the bunch compressors in the facility. (2). Utilize these diagnostic to perform model-independent feedback-based to achieve desired longitudinal phase space distributions. (3). Utilize the model-independent feedback approach to maximize energy gain while minimizing emittance growth and energy gain variance of the PWFA process by tuning accelerator parameters, while monitoring what longitudinal phase space the algorithm has found, information that will be useful for further analytical and simulation studies.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2022

Modeling multiple scattering transient of an ultrashort laser pulse by spherical particles

The multiple scattering of an ultrashort laser pulse by a turbid dispersive medium (namely a cloud of bubbles in water) is investigated by means of Monte Carlo simulations. The theory of Gouesbet and Gréhan (2000) is used to derive an energetic model of the scattering transient. It is shown that the spreading and extinction of the pulse can be decoupled from the transient of scattering, which allows to describe each phenomenon individually. The transient of scattering is modeled with the Lorenz-Mie Theory and thus is also valid for a relative refractive index lower than one, contrary to the Debye series expansion which does not converge close to the critical angle. This is made possible after the introduction of a new physical object, the Scattering Impulse Response Function (SIRF) which allows to detect the different modes of scattering transient, in time and direction. Here the present approach is more generic, as it enables to simulate clouds of air bubbles in water, which was not possible previously. Two different approaches are proposed within the Monte Carlo framework. The first is a pure Monte Carlo approach where the delay due to the scattering is randomly drawn at each event, while the second is based on the transport of the whole scattering signal. They are both embedded in the Monte Carlo code Scatter3D. Both models produce equivalent trends and are validated against published numerical results. They are then applied to the multiple scattering of ultra short pulse by a cloud of bubble in water in the forward direction. The pulse spread due to the propagation in water is computed for a wide range of traveled distances and pulse durations, and the optimal pulse duration is given to minimize the pulse spread at a given distance. The main result is that the scattered photons exit the turbid medium earlier than the ballistic photons and produce a double peak related to the refraction in the bubble. This demonstrates the possibility to develop new diagnostics to characterize dynamic bubbly flows.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2025

Near-term heatwave risk in HighResMIP models across different temperature zones of West Africa

This study projects near-future (2031–2050) changes in heatwave (HW) risk across West Africa (WA) using an ensemble of eight high-resolution global climate models from the High-Resolution Model Intercomparison Project under a high-emission scenario. Using K-means clustering, we divided WA into four unique temperature zones and examined projected changes in extreme temperatures, HW occurrence and magnitude. Our results indicate a statistically significant increase in future HW events across most parts of WA, although considerable spread exists over the region and among individual models. The most pronounced increases are evident in the Sahel/Sahara and the Guinea Highlands subregions, with an ensemble mean increase of ∼10 HW events per year. In contrast, the lowest increase in HW events is projected in central WA, with increases ranging between 1 and 5 events per year. Similarly, the magnitude of HW events is projected to increase in most models, with Sahel/Sahara exhibiting the largest increases. Additionally, projections suggest that the strongest HWs will become more frequent, particularly in northern and southwestern WA. These findings highlight significant spatial heterogeneity in future HW risk across WA, emphasizing the need for targeted adaptation strategies.

HighResMIP↗
DOE OSTI2021

Modeling Low Intensity Fires: Lessons Learned from 2012 RxCADRE

Coupled fire-atmosphere models are increasingly being used to study low-intensity fires, such as those that are used in prescribed fire applications. Thus, the need arises to evaluate these models for their ability to accurately represent fire spread in marginal burning conditions. In this study, wind and fuel data collected during the Prescribed Fire Combustion and Atmospheric Dynamics Research Experiments (RxCADRE) fire campaign were used to generate initial and boundary conditions for coupled fire-atmosphere simulations. We present a novel method to obtain fuels representation at the model grid scale using a combination of imagery, machine learning, and field sampling. Several methods to generate wind input conditions for the model from eight different anemometer measurements are explored. We find a strong sensitivity of fire outcomes to wind inputs. This result highlights the critical need to include variable wind fields as inputs in modeling marginal fire conditions. This work highlights the complexities of comparing physics-based model results against observations, which are more acute in marginal burning conditions, where stronger sensitivities to local variability in wind and fuels drive fire outcomes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Data Assimilation for Robust UQ Within Agent-Based Simulation on HPC Systems

Agent-based simulation provides a powerful tool for in silico system modeling. However, these simulations do not provide built-in methods for uncertainty quantification (UQ). Within these types of models a typical approach to UQ is to run multiple realizations of the model then compute aggregate statistics. This approach is limited due to the compute time required for a solution. When faced with an emerging biothreat, public health decisions need to be made quickly and solutions for integrating near real-time data with analytic tools are needed. We propose an integrated Bayesian UQ framework for agent-based models based on sequential Monte Carlo sampling. Given streaming or static data about the evolution of an emerging pathogen this Bayesian framework provides a distribution over the parameters governing the spread of a disease through a population. These estimates of the spread of a disease may be provided to public health agencies seeking to abate the spread. By coupling agent-based simulations with Bayesian modeling in a data assimilation, our proposed framework provides a powerful tool for modeling dynamical systems in silico. We propose a method which reduces model error and provides a range of realistic possible outcomes. Moreover, our method addresses two primary limitations of ABMs: the lack of UQ and an inability to assimilate data. Our proposed framework combines the flexibility of an agent-based model with UQ provided by the Bayesian paradigm in a workflow which scales well to HPC systems. We provide algorithmic details and results on a simulated outbreak with both static and streaming data.

Spannaus, Adam [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000225213657)↗
DOE OSTI2020

Modeling Needs for Power Semiconductor Devices and Power Electronics Systems: Preprint

As energy systems move towards wide-spread electrification, penetration of power semiconductor devices and power electronics continues to grow at a rapid pace. This paper attempts to review the state of the art in power semiconductor modeling and the existing state of modeling in general when in it comes to design of devices and systems. The modeling needs for semiconductor devices vary depending on the end goal, and the level of abstraction needed towards model formulation also changes with the size and complexity of system to be designed. Finally, key aspects of thermal design and modeling for power electronics are also discussed.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2021

Lower Tropospheric Processes: A Control on the Global Mean Precipitation Rate

The spread in global mean precipitation among climate models is explored in two ensembles using the complementary perspectives of surface evaporation and energy budgets. Models with higher global mean precipitation have stronger oceanic evaporation, driven by drier near-surface air. The drier surface conditions occur alongside increases in near-surface temperature and moisture at 925 hPa, which point to stronger boundary layer mixing. Correlations suggest that the degree of lower tropospheric mixing explains 18%–49% of the intermodel precipitation variance. To test this hypothesis, the degree of mixing is indirectly varied in a single-model experiment by adjusting the relative humidity threshold that controls low-cloud fraction. Indeed, increasing lower tropospheric mixing results in more global mean precipitation. Energetically, increased precipitation rates are associated with more downwelling longwave radiation to the surface and weaker sensible heat fluxes. These results highlight how lower-tropospheric processes must be better constrained to reduce the precipitation discrepancy among climate models.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Impact of point spread function higher moments error on weak gravitational lensing – II. A comprehensive study

ABSTRACT Weak lensing is one of the most powerful probes for dark matter and dark energy science, although it faces increasing challenges in controlling systematic uncertainties as the statistical errors become smaller. The point spread function (PSF) needs to be precisely modeled to avoid systematic error on the weak lensing measurements. The weak lensing biases induced by errors in the PSF model second moments, i.e. its size and shape, are well-studied. However, Zhang et al. showed that errors in the higher moments of the PSF may also be a significant source of systematics for upcoming weak lensing surveys. Therefore, this work comprehensively investigate the modelling quality of PSF moments from the 3rd to 6th order, and propagate the PSFEx higher moments modelling error in the HSC survey data set to the weak lensing shear–shear correlation functions and their cosmological analyses. The overall multiplicative shear bias associated with errors in PSF higher moments can cause an ∼0.1σ shift on the cosmological parameters for LSST Y10, while the associated additive biases can induce 1σ uncertainties in cosmology parameter inference for LSST Y10, if not accounted. We compare the PSFEx model with PSF in Full FOV, and find similar performance in modelling the PSF higher moments. We conclude that PSF higher moment errors of the future PSF models should be reduced from those in current methods, otherwise needed to be explicitly modeled in the weak lensing analysis.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Critical Shear Stress for Erosion Under Laminar Jet Flow

Particle erosion is an important process in both natural and manmade environments. For example, in natural environments particle or sediment erosion rates determine the course of rivers, depth of streams, and fate of deltas. The interplay between erosion rates and flow patterns can have dramatic impact on shorelines. Where hydrodynamic jet flows or rip currents change direction, sediments may accumulate or disperse altering the shape of coastlines and the ecosystems and economies that rely on them. In man-made systems, jet flows may be used to mobilize particles from surfaces or within industrial scale mixing tanks. For example, in the nuclear industry, impinging jet mixers may be used to mobilize and suspend sludges at the bottom of waste tanks. In each of these examples, the Shields diagram is useful to determine the conditions under which erosion occurs. This diagram plots the scaled critical shear stress for erosion as a function of the particle size as embedded in particle Reynolds numbers, Archimedes numbers, or their equivalents. Although the data, that carries a large spread, is largely in agreement with mathematical models, for the smallest particles, model predictions diverge from each other and from experimental data. Indeed, there is substantial uncertainty about the Shields diagrams at relatively small particle sizes and flow rates. Here we evaluate critical shear stresses for erosion under laminar jet flow. To date critical shear stresses for erosion, as embodied in Shields diagrams, have largely been developed for turbulent flow both experimental and mathematically. However, curves on the Shields diagrams diverge among various models at lower particle Reynolds numbers. Indeed, how critical shear stresses for erosion develop under fully laminar jet flow conditions (not simply laminar boundary layers under turbulent flow) remains unclear. Here we address this gap, which is particularly important for mobilization of the smallest particles. We find the Shields parameter to be inversely proportional to the particle Reynolds numbers under laminar jet flow conditions similar to turbulent conditions.

critical shear stresses, erosion rates, effective ↗
DOE OSTI2023

Transmission risk of Oropouche fever across the Americas

Abstract Background Vector-borne diseases (VBDs) are important contributors to the global burden of infectious diseases due to their epidemic potential, which can result in significant population and economic impacts. Oropouche fever, caused by Oropouche virus (OROV), is an understudied zoonotic VBD febrile illness reported in Central and South America. The epidemic potential and areas of likely OROV spread remain unexplored, limiting capacities to improve epidemiological surveillance. Methods To better understand the capacity for spread of OROV, we developed spatial epidemiology models using human outbreaks as OROV transmission-locality data, coupled with high-resolution satellite-derived vegetation phenology. Data were integrated using hypervolume modeling to infer likely areas of OROV transmission and emergence across the Americas. Results Models based on one-support vector machine hypervolumes consistently predicted risk areas for OROV transmission across the tropics of Latin America despite the inclusion of different parameters such as different study areas and environmental predictors. Models estimate that up to 5 million people are at risk of exposure to OROV. Nevertheless, the limited epidemiological data available generates uncertainty in projections. For example, some outbreaks have occurred under climatic conditions outside those where most transmission events occur. The distribution models also revealed that landscape variation, expressed as vegetation loss, is linked to OROV outbreaks. Conclusions Hotspots of OROV transmission risk were detected along the tropics of South America. Vegetation loss might be a driver of Oropouche fever emergence. Modeling based on hypervolumes in spatial epidemiology might be considered an exploratory tool for analyzing data-limited emerging infectious diseases for which little understanding exists on their sylvatic cycles. OROV transmission risk maps can be used to improve surveillance, investigate OROV ecology and epidemiology, and inform early detection.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Novel Poly-Si:Ga/SiOx Passivating Contacts through Non-Equilibrium Doping

Poly-Si/SiOx passivating contacts are one of the key enablers for high-efficiency, low-cost c-Si solar cells. In recent years, record devices have reached efficiencies of 26% in the laboratory and 25% in the industry. The current cell structure utilizing a tunneling oxide passivating contact structure with a back phosphorus-doped poly- Si/SiOx passivating contact and a front boron diffused emitter suffers from large emitter recombination. Thus, replacing the front B diffused emitter with a p-type passivating contact is a route to overcome this deficiency. This gives rise to front/back poly-Si based passivating contacts. To address the low passivation performance of the B-doped poly-Si passivating contacts, we replace B with Ga as a novel p-type dopant to avoid dopant accumulation in the tunneling oxide, which is known to lead to large degradation loss in passivation quality. Here, we introduce a non-equilibrium method via pulsed laser melting to thermally melt and recrystallize the poly-Si and redistribute the dopants, achieving doping concentrations above the solid solubility limit (~4E19 cm-3). We demonstrate a good passivation quality with an iVoc of 721 mV with an active Ga doping concentration in poly-Si >1020 cm-3. Furthermore, we show a low contact resistivity of 33.2 +/- 9.3 mO cm2 using a diode model calculation. Finally, cross-section scanning spreading resistance microscopy was performed to determine the resistance profile across the non-homogeneously doped poly-Si layer.

c-Si↗
DOE OSTI2022

Correction of crosstalk effect in the Low Energy RHIC electron Cooler Booster Cavity

we report that the Low Energy Relativistic Heavy Ion Collider (RHIC) electron Cooler (LEReC) is designed to deliver a 1.6 MeV to 2.6 MeV electron beam, with rms dp/p less than 5e-4. The superconducting radiofrequency (SRF) Booster Cavity is the major accelerating component in LEReC. It is a 0.4 cell cavity operating at 2 K, providing a maximum energy gain of 2.2 MeV. It is modified from an experimental Energy Recovery Linac (ERL) photocathode gun, and thus has fundamental power couplers (FPCs), pickup (PU) couplers (field probes) and HOM coupler close to each other on the same side of the cavity. Direct capacitive coupling between the FPC and PU, called the crosstalk effect, combined with microphonic detuning, can induce closed loop voltage fluctuations that exceed the total energy spread requirement of LEReC. The crosstalk effect in this cavity is modelled, simulated, and measured, and a correction method is proposed and demonstrated to suppress the voltage fluctuation so that energy spread requirement can be met.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Trade-offs between individual and ensemble forecasts of an emerging infectious disease

Probabilistic forecasts play an indispensable role in answering questions about the spread of newly emerged pathogens. However, uncertainties about the epidemiology of emerging pathogens can make it difficult to choose among alternative model structures and assumptions. To assess the potential for uncertainties about emerging pathogens to affect forecasts of their spread, we evaluated the performance 16 forecasting models in the context of the 2015-2016 Zika epidemic in Colombia. Each model featured a different combination of assumptions about human mobility, spatiotemporal variation in transmission potential, and the number of virus introductions. We found that which model assumptions had the most ensemble weight changed through time. We additionally identified a trade-off whereby some individual models outperformed ensemble models early in the epidemic, but on average the ensembles outperformed all individual models. Our results suggest that multiple models spanning uncertainty across alternative assumptions are necessary to obtain robust forecasts for emerging infectious diseases.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Propagation of a Stress Pulse in a Heterogeneous Elastic Bar

The propagation of a wave pulse due to low-speed impact on a one-dimensional, heterogeneous bar is studied here. Due to the dispersive character of the medium, the pulse attenuates as it propagates. This attenuation is studied over propagation distances that are much longer than the size of the microstructure. A homogenized peridynamic material model can be calibrated to reproduce the attenuation and spreading of the wave. The calibration consists of matching the dispersion curve for the heterogeneous material near the limit of long wavelengths. It is demonstrated that the peridynamic method reproduces the attenuation of wave pulses predicted by an exact microstructural model over large propagation distances.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗