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At least 253 records · Page 14

Changes in fire weather climatology under 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C warming

Abstract The 2015 Paris Agreement led to a number of studies that assessed the impact of the 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C increases in global temperature over preindustrial levels. However, those assessments have not actively investigated the impact of these levels of warming on fire weather. In view of a recent series of high-profile wildfire events worldwide, we access fire weather sensitivity based on a set of multi-model large ensemble climate simulations for these low-emission scenarios. The results indicate that the half degree difference between these two thresholds may lead to a significantly increased hazard of wildfire in certain parts of the world, particularly the Amazon, African savanna and Mediterranean. Although further experiments focused on human land use are needed to depict future fire activity, considering that rising temperatures are the most influential factor in augmenting the danger of fire weather, limiting global warming to 1.5 °C would alleviate some risk in these parts of the world.

Son, Rackhun (ORCID:000000023366495X)↗

Changing temperature profiles and the risk of dengue outbreaks

As temperatures change worldwide, the pattern and competency of disease vectors will change, altering the global distribution of both the burden of infectious disease and the risk of the emergence of those diseases into new regions. To evaluate the risk of potential summer dengue outbreaks triggered by infected travelers under various climate scenarios, we develop an SEIR-type model, run numerical simulations, and conduct sensitivity analyses under a range of temperature profiles. Our model extends existing theoretical frameworks for studying dengue dynamics by introducing temperature dependence of two key parameters: the mosquito extrinsic incubation period and the lifespan of mosquitoes, which empirical data suggests are both highly temperature dependent. We find that changing temperature significantly alters dengue risk in an inverted U-shape, with temperatures in the range 27-31°C producing the highest risk. As temperatures increase beyond 31°C, the determinants of dengue risk begin to shift from mosquito biting rate and carrying capacity to the duration of the human infectious period, suggesting that changing temperatures not only alter dengue risk but also the potential efficacy of control measures. To illustrate the role of spatial and temporal temperature heterogeneity, we select five US cities where the primary dengue vector, the mosquito Aedes aegypti , has been observed, and which have had dengue cases in the past: Los Angeles, Houston, Miami, Brownsville, and Phoenix. Our analysis suggests that an increase of 3°C leads to an approximate doubling of the risk of dengue in Los Angeles and Houston, but a reduction of risk in Miami, Brownsville, and Phoenix due to extreme heat.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Shock initiation of cyclotol (75/25) at both ambient temperature and 70 °C

Here, six shock initiation experiments have been carried out to study the shock sensitivity and develop the unreacted Hugoniot for the Cyclotol composition 75/25 %wt RDX/TNT. The experiments were carried out both at ambient temperature, and elevated to 70 °C, close to the TNT melt temperature of 80 °C. Two sets of three experiments were fired at nominal pressures of 4.1, 6.0 and 7.7 GPa. Comparison has been made to the previously studied (80/20 %wt RDX/TNT) composition and analysis shows that the five percent decrease in RDX content has resulted in a significant increase in shock sensitivity. The increase in initial temperature has yielded an unexpectedly small increase in shock sensitivity, particularly relative to the effects of the compositional change. Wave profiles will be presented, along with a discussion of the unreacted Hugoniot and relative sensitivities presented in the Pop plot.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Using strong lensing to detect subhaloes with steep inner density profiles

ABSTRACT The inner region of a subhalo’s density distribution is particularly sensitive to dark matter microphysics, with alternative dark matter models leading to both cored and steeply-rising inner density profiles. This work investigates how the lensing signature and detectability of dark matter subhaloes in mock HST-, Euclid-, and JWST-like strong lensing observations depend on the subhalo’s radial density profile, especially with regards to the inner power-law slope, $\beta$. We demonstrate that the minimum subhalo mass detectable along the Einstein ring of a system is strongly dependent on $\beta$. In particular, we show that subhaloes with $\beta = 2.2$ can be detected down to masses over an order-of-magnitude lower than their Navarro–Frenk–White (NFW) counterparts with $\beta = 1$. Importantly, we find that the detectability of subhaloes with steep inner profiles is minimally affected by increasing the complexity of the main lens galaxy’s mass model. This is a notable characteristic of these subhaloes, as those with NFW or shallower profiles become essentially undetectable when multipole perturbations are added to the lens model. The results of this work highlight how the underlying dark matter physics can significantly impact the expected number of subhalo detections from strong gravitational lensing observations. This is important for testing Cold Dark Matter against alternative models, such as Self-Interacting Dark Matter, that predict a diverse range of subhalo inner density profiles.

dark matter↗

High Temperature Acclimation of Leaf Gas Exchange, Photochemistry, and Metabolomic Profiles in Populus trichocarpa

High temperatures alter the thermal sensitivities of numerous physiological and biochemical processes that impact tree growth and productivity. Foliar and root applications of methanol have been implicated in plant acclimation to high temperature via the C 1 pathway. Here, we characterized temperature acclimation at 35°C of leaf gas exchange, chlorophyll fluorescence and extractable metabolites of potted Populus trichocarpa saplings and examined potential influences of mM concentrations of methanol added during soil watering over a two-month period. Relative to plants grown under the low growth temperature (LGT), high growth temperature (HGT) plants showed a suppression of leaf water use and carbon cycling including transpiration (E), net photosynthesis (P n ), an estimate of photorespiration (R p ), and dark respiration (R d ), attributed to reductions in stomatal conductance and direct negative effects on gas exchange and photosynthetic machinery. In contrast, HGT plants showed an upregulation of non-photochemical quenching (NPQ t ), the optimum temperature for ETR, and leaf isoprene emissions at 40°C. A large number of metabolites (867) were induced under HGT, many implicated in flavonoid biosynthesis highlighting a potentially protective role for these compounds. Methanol application did not significantly alter leaf gas exchange but slightly reduced the suppression of R d and R p by the high growth temperature while slightly impairing ETR, Fv’/Fm’, and q p . However, we were unable to determine if soil methanol was sufficiently taken up by the plant to have a direct effect on foliar processes. A small number of extracted leaf tissue metabolites (55 out of 10,015) showed significantly altered abundances under LGT and methanol treatments relative to water controls, and this increased in compound number (222) at the HGT. The results demonstrate the large physiological and biochemical impacts of high growth temperature on poplar seedlings and highlights the enhancement of the optimum temperature of ETR as a rapid thermal acclimation mechanism. Finally, although no large effect on leaf physiology was observed, the results are consistent with methanol both impairing photochemistry of the light reactions via formaldehyde toxicity, and stimulating photosynthesis and dark respiration through formate oxidation to CO 2 .

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

High-sensitivity observations of 28 pulsars

Average 430-MHz pulse profiles and, where possible, modulation indices and pulse-nulling fractions are computed for 28 pulsars. Morphological classifications are determined for most of the pulsars. It is found that core emission components tend to have lower modulation indices than conal components, and that pulsars having only a core component never exhibit pulse pulling. PSR 1612 + 07 is shown to undergo mode changes.

Weisberg, J. M.↗

Transcriptional profiling reveals regulated genes in the hippocampus during memory formation

Transcriptional profiling (TP) offers a powerful approach to identify genes activated during memory formation and, by inference, the molecular pathways involved. Trace eyeblink conditioning is well suited for the study of regional gene expression because it requires the hippocampus, whereas the highly parallel task, delay conditioning, does not. First, we determined when gene expression was most regulated during trace conditioning. Rats were exposed to 200 trials per day of paired and unpaired stimuli each day for 4 days. Changes in gene expression were most apparent 24 h after exposure to 200 trials. Therefore, we profiled gene expression in the hippocampus 24 h after 200 trials of trace eyeblink conditioning, on multiple arrays using additional animals. Of 1,186 genes on the filter array, seven genes met the statistical criteria and were also validated by real-time polymerase chain reaction. These genes were growth hormone (GH), c-kit receptor tyrosine kinase (c-kit), glutamate receptor, metabotropic 5 (mGluR5), nerve growth factor-beta (NGF-beta), Jun oncogene (c-Jun), transmembrane receptor Unc5H1 (UNC5H1), and transmembrane receptor Unc5H2 (UNC5H2). All these genes, except for GH, were downregulated in response to trace conditioning. GH was upregulated; therefore, we also validated the downregulation of the GH inhibitor, somatostatin (SST), even though it just failed to meet criteria on the arrays. By during situ hybridization, GH was expressed throughout the cell layers of the hippocampus in response to trace conditioning. None of the genes regulated in trace eyeblink conditioning were similarly affected by delay conditioning, a task that does not require the hippocampus. These findings demonstrate that transcriptional profiling can exhibit a repertoire of genes sensitive to the formation of hippocampal-dependent associative memories.

Non-NASA Center↗

Further laboratory studies and stratospheric flight of a mass spectrometer beam system

A gas expansion system combined with a mass spectrometer has been tested and flown successfully in the stratosphere. Through a sequence of orifices and high speed pumping, gas particles were formed into a molecular beam and analyzed by a sensitive mass spectrometer. During two balloon flights, vertical profiles of all major atmospheric constituents as well as O3, CO2, H2O and others were obtained. Gases such as AR38 and O16;O17 provided in-flight calibration standards. The sensitivity of the system was such that gases with mixing ratios of 10 ppb at an ambient pressure of about 10 mbar were detectable.

Mauersberger, K.↗

Improved Optical Fiber Chemical Sensors

Calculations, based on exact theory of optical fiber, have shown how to increase optical efficiency sensitivity of active-core, step-index-profile optical-fiber fluorosensor. Calculations result of efforts to improve efficiency of optical-fiber chemical sensor of previous concept described in "Making Optical-Fiber Chemical Sensors More Sensitive" (LAR-14525). Optical fiber chemical detector of enhanced sensitivity made in several configurations. Portion of fluorescence or chemiluminescence generated in core, and launched directly into bound electromagnetic modes that propagate along core to photodetector.

Egalon, Claudio O.↗

An Unsteady Actuator Line Solver to Enable Adjoint Sensitivity Studies for Wake Steering

This study demonstrates the sensitivity of wind turbine wake steering performance to blade design. An actuator line model was implemented within an unsteady adjoint solver that enables efficient execution of gradient-based optimization and sensitivity studies. After first confirming the feasibility of wake steering by controlling actuator line chord profiles and formulating a suitable objective function for wake position, a sensitivity study was conducted to determine the relative importance of chord length as a function of spanwise position on the resulting turbine wake deflection. The results presented here support the idea that blade design choices play a role in wake control. In a larger context, this study demonstrates a computational framework in which turbine and blade designs can be studied at the individual and farm-wide level to enhance wind plant controllability and manage power output.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Measurement of a radial flow profile with eddy current flow meters and deep neural networks

Eddy current flow meters (ECFMs) measure flows of conductive fluids. Recent interest in ECFMs has increased due to applications in advanced nuclear reactors. ECFMs are well suited for such applications, as they can provide non-invasive measurements of flow in fluids that are often difficult to measure. Traditionally, ECFMs are operated using an alternating current at a single frequency, limiting ECFMs to measure average fluid velocities, blockages, or voids. Here, we expand the capabilities of ECFMs by measuring the fluid radial velocity profile of liquid mercury. To accomplish this, we made several ECFM sensitivity measurements at a range of frequencies. Different frequencies vary the electromagnetic skin depth of the device. By adjusting frequencies, we probed the fluid velocity at various radial locations and constructed a flow-velocity profile. The relationship between the ECFM measurements and velocity profile is nonlinear and requires solving an inverse problem. Using electromagnetic finite-element simulations to train a deep neural network (DNN), we created a model that provides a stable general relationship between the sensitivity measurements of an ECFM and the fluid velocity profile. Using ECFM measurements of liquid mercury, our DNN model calculates a flow profile that agrees well with computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations. This technique has potential to improve flow monitoring for optimization, safe operation of conductive fluid loops, and/or validating complex CFD models.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Variable sensitivity moire interferometry

This paper demonstrates that optical microlithography can be used to produce a crossed grating which diffracts light into multiple orders sufficient to record moire interferograms with sensitivities ranging from 2.0 to 0.285 micron/fringe. The grating profile produced by the method is analyzed to establish the diffraction efficiency in each diffraction order, and generalized expressions are given for variable sensitivity moire interferometry. Experimental tests are conducted to verify analytical arguments. In one of these tests, two different diffraction order pairs are used simultaneously to verify that surface displacement can be measured at different sensitivities.

Johnson-Cole, Helen↗

Applicability of 1D site response analysis to shallow sedimentary basins: A critical evaluation through physics-based 3D ground motion simulations

One-dimensional site response analysis (1D SRA) remains the standard practice in considering the effect of local soil deposits and predicting site-specific ground motions, although its range of applicability to realistic seismic wavefields is still in question. In this 1D approach, horizontal and vertical ground shaking are assumed to be induced by vertically propagating shear and compressional waves, respectively. A recent study based on analytical two-dimensional (2D) plane waves and simple point source earthquake simulations has shown two mechanistic limitations in this 1D modelling technique for general inclined seismic waves, that is, systematic over-prediction of the vertical motion and wave trapping in the 1D soil column. In this article, we evaluate in detail the applicability of this 1D modelling approach to realistic three-dimensional (3D) simulated seismic wavefields in shallow sedimentary basins. Linear-viscoelastic 1D SRA predictions using two types of input motions that are commonly used in practice—rock outcrop and in-column motions, are compared with the reference true site response results from 3D earthquake simulations in terms of various measures in the frequency and time domain. It is shown that the horizontal motion in the 3D seismic wavefield exhibits dominant shear wave propagation phenomenon, while the vertical motion is a combined effect of compressional and shear waves and can be over-predicted by the 1D approach when the incident seismic waves are inclined. Direct evidence of the wave refraction process that leads to the vertical motion over-prediction is provided. 1D SRA with in-column inputs can yield motions that have significantly longer duration compared to the true 3D site response solution due to trapped waves, casting in doubt the frequent need for increased soil damping in existing site studies to compensate for wave attenuation due to scattering alone. Sensitivity investigation on the increase of soil profile damping by a multiplier D mul shows D mul values compatible with those found in the literature for both horizontal and vertical motions. It is shown that the level of D mul optimized for a best match of the spectral acceleration is dependent on the characteristic of the input motion and a larger D mul is typically required for the vertical component. In contrast, 1D SRA with outcrop motions predicts motions with shorter significant duration due to its inability to capture the basin-edge generated surface waves. A suite of ground motion simulations was performed to assess the sensitivity of the observations to the basin geologic structure including the velocity gradient, rock-basin impedance contrast and basin depth. The analysis results show that the accuracy of the simplified 1D procedure is dependent on the wavefield composition of both the input motions and the true 3D site response solution. While the horizontal motions in shallow sedimentary basins can, to the first order, be reasonably captured by the simplified 1D approach, 1D SRA for the vertical component is in general not reliable and contributions from inclined shear waves should be accounted for in site-specific evaluation of the vertical design ground motion.

1D assumption↗

A Sensitivity Study of the Aircraft Vortex Spacing System (AVOSS) Wake Predictor Algorithm to the Resolution of Input Meteorological Profiles

The AVOSS project demonstrated the feasibility of applying aircraft wake vortex sensing and prediction technologies to safe aircraft spacing for single runway arrivals. On average, AVOSS provided spacing recommendations that were less than the current FAA prescribed spacing rules, resulting in a potential airport efficiency gain. Subsequent efforts have included quantifying the operational specifications for future Wake Vortex Advisory Systems (WakeVAS). In support of these efforts, each of the candidate subsystems for a WakeVAS must be specified. The specifications represent a consensus between the high-level requirements and the capabilities of the candidate technologies. This report documents the beginnings of an effort to quantify the capabilities of the AVOSS Prediction Algorithm (APA). Specifically, the APA horizontal position and circulation strength output sensitivity to the resolution of its wind and turbulence inputs is examined. The results of this analysis have implications for the requirements of the meteorological sensing and prediction systems comprising a WakeVAS implementation.

Rutishauser, David K.↗

Limits on dark matter annihilation from the shape of radio emission in M31

Well-motivated models of dark matter often result in a population of electrons and positrons within galaxies produced through dark matter annihilation — usually in association with gamma rays. As they diffuse through galactic magnetic fields, these e ± produce synchrotron radio emission. The intensity and morphology of this signal depends on the properties of the interstellar medium through which the e ± propagate. Using observations of the Andromeda Galaxy (M31) to construct a model of the gas, magnetic fields, and starlight, we set constraints on dark matter annihilation to b$\overline{b}$ using the morphology of 3.6 cm radio emission. As the emission signal at the center of M31 is very sensitive to the diffusion coefficient and dark matter profile, we base our limits on the differential flux in the region between 0.9 – 6.9 kpc from the center. We exclude annihilation cross sections ≳ 3 × 10 −25 cm 3 /s in the mass range 10 – 500 GeV, with a maximum sensitivity of 7 × 10 −26 cm 3 /s at 20 – 40 GeV. Though these limits are weaker than those found in previous studies of M31, they are robust to variations of the diffusion coefficient.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Stratospheric NO and NO2 Abundances from ATMOS Solar-Occultation Measurements

Using results from a time-dependent photochemical model to calculate the diurnal variation of NO and NO2, we have corrected Atmospheric Trace MOlecule Spectroscopy (ATMOS) solar-occultation retrievals of the NO and NO2 abundances at 90' solar zenith angle. Neglecting to adjust for the rapid variation of these gases across the terminator results in potential errors in retrieved profiles of approximately 20% for NO2 and greater than 100% for NC at altitudes below 25 km. Sensitivity analysis indicates that knowledge of the local 03 and temperature profiles, rather than zonal mean or climatological conditions of these quantities, is required to obtain reliable retrievals of NO and NO2 in the lower stratosphere. Extremely inaccurate 03 or temperature values at 20 km can result in 50% errors in retrieved NO or NO2. Mixing ratios of NO in the mid-latitude, lower stratosphere measured by ATMOS during the November 1994 ATLAS-3 mission compare favorably with in situ ER-2 observations, providing strong corroboration of the reliability of the adjusted space-borne measurements.

Newchurch, M. J.↗

Laser beam pointing stabilization using analog position-sensitive diodes

Laser wire scanners have been used for ion beam profile and emittance measurements at the Spallation Neutron Source linear accelerator. Due to propagation distances exceeding 100 m, reliable measurements require laser beam stabilization, previously accomplished with a feedback control loop using a digital camera as a position sensor [Hardin et al., Opt. Express 19, 2874 (2011)]. Here, this paper presents an upgraded pointing stabilization system utilizing analog position-sensitive diodes (PSDs) as the position detector, optimized with an optical diffuser. The new system significantly surpasses the previous system by offering an order-of-magnitude improvement in radiation tolerance and a bandwidth limited only by the burst repetition rate of the laser beam. Operating with a 60-Hz burst mode laser, the new system effectively suppresses laser beam drifts up to 30 Hz, compared to the previous system’s 4 Hz limit. In addition, the amplitude of spectral components below 0.1 Hz was reduced by a factor of more than 100, which is over seven times greater than was achieved by the previous system.

Data acquisition↗

Effects of matter density profiles on neutrino oscillations for T2HK and T2HKK

This paper explores the effects of changes in matter density profiles on neutrino oscillation probabilities, and whether these could potentially be seen by the future Hyper-Kamiokande long-baseline oscillation experiment (T2HK). The analysis is extended to include the possibility of having an additional detector in Korea (T2HKK). In both cases, we find that these effects will be immeasurable, as the magnitudes of the changes in the oscillation probabilities induced in all density profile scenarios considered here remain smaller than the estimated experimental sensitivity to the oscillation probabilities of each experiment, for both appearance and disappearance channels. Therefore, we conclude that using a constant density profile is sufficient for both the T2HK and T2HKK experiments.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗