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Results for “Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis”

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All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

DOE OSTI2022

Analysis of SCALE Criticality and Sensitivity Calculations for Reflected HEU Cylinders [Slides]

The SCALE code package offers multiple nuclear data libraries supporting Monte Carlo transport, with sensitivity and uncertainty methods derived from MC transport solutions. Several libraries are multigroup, which introduce bias differing by system. Previous work has shown poor S/U results in several reflector materials: ICSBEP benchmark HMF-084 was selected to analyze biases and S/U method applicability to a variety of reflectors. Prior and ongoing work found inaccuracies in CSAS and TSUNAMI results, which were further investigated utilizing the HEU-MET-FAST-084 ICSBEP critical benchmark, chosen for its geometrical simplicity and variety of reflector materials. Perturbation of reflector thickness across various reflector materials allowed for an assortment of materials is to be tested swiftly for each sequence and method. Observation was an increasing bias of MG $k_{eff}$ relative to CE, in both direction and magnitude. IFP produced extremely reliable results. >85% of CLUTCH cases were found satisfactory.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Diffuse back-illumination temperature imaging (DBI-TI), a novel soot thermometry technique

To meet stringent emissions regulations on soot emissions, it is critical to further advance the fundamental understanding of in-cylinder soot formation and oxidation processes. Among several optical techniques for soot quantification, diffuse back-illumination extinction imaging (DBI-EI) has recently gained traction mainly due to its ability to compensate for beam steering, which if not addressed, can cause unacceptably high measurement uncertainty. Until now, DBI-EI has only been used to measure the amount of soot along the line of sight, and here, we extend the capabilities of a DBI-EI setup to also measure in-cylinder soot temperature. This proof of concept of diffuse back-illumination temperature imaging (DBI-TI) as a soot thermometry technique is presented by implementing DBI-TI in a single cylinder, heavy-duty, optical diesel engine to provide 2-D line-of-sight integrated soot temperature maps. The potential of DBI-TI to be an accurate thermometry technique for use in optical engines is analyzed. The achievable accuracy is due in part to simultaneous measurement of the soot extinction, which circumvents the uncertainty in dispersion coefficients that depend on the optical properties of soot and the wavelength of light utilized. Analysis shows that DBI-TI provides temperature estimates that are closer to the mass-averaged soot temperature when compared to other thermometry techniques that are more sensitive to soot temperature closer to the detector. Furthermore, uncertainty analysis and Monte Carlo (MC) simulations provide estimates of the temperature measurement errors associated with this technique. The MC simulations reveal that for the light intensities and optical densities encountered in these experiments, the accuracy of the DBI-TI technique is comparable or even better than other established optical thermometry techniques. Thus, DBI-TI promises to be an easily implementable extension to the existing DBI-EI technique, thereby extending its ability to provide comprehensive line-of-sight integrated information on soot.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

NASA NTRS2019

Bayesian Inference and the Effects of Varying Uncertainty Models in Charring Ablator Calibration and Uncertainty Quantification Problems

The Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) vehicle utilized a heat shield constructed from NASA’s Phenolic-Impregnated Carbon Ablator (PICA) material to protect the main structure from the high enthalpy environment encountered during hypersonic atmospheric entry. During the vehicle’s descent through Martian atmosphere, multiple thermocouples embedded within the heat shield captured in-depth material temperature data that allow for studies to be conducted on current material response reconstruction tools. In the present work, material temperature data obtained from thermocouples within the MISP-4 plug (MEDLI (Mars Science Laboratory Entry, Descent, and Landing Instrument) Integrated Sensor Plug) are utilized in the calibration of Theoretical Ablative Composite for Open Testing (TACOT) model parameters in conjunction with NASA’s Porous material Analysis Toolbox (PATO) through Bayesian inference where uncertainty due to parametric, modeling, and experimental sources is simultaneously quantified. Prior to the study, a sensitivity analysis is performed through computation of the robust Sobol indices in an effort to study the relationship between input space and model response and to reduce the dimensionality of the statistical inverse problem. The Bayesian inference methodology necessitates an a-priori choice to be made for the uncertainty model for which numerous possibilities are available. Across most works, however, only basic additive or multiplicative models are utilized with pre-defined magnitudes of uncertainty based on a-priori knowledge or to-be-calibrated multipliers of static covariance matrix structures. The present effort explores the effects of informed uncertainty models, ones with temporal dependence that are simultaneously calibrated through Bayesian inference, on calibrated results for parameters that make up the uncertain input space.

Sensitivity Analysis↗

DOE OSTI2023

Sensitivity-Driven Experimental Design to Facilitate Control of Dynamical Systems

Control of nonlinear dynamical systems is a complex and multifaceted process. Essential elements of many engineering systems include high-fidelity physics-based modeling, offline trajectory planning, feedback control design, and data acquisition strategies to reduce uncertainties. Here this article proposes an optimization-centric perspective which couples these elements in a cohesive framework. We introduce a novel use of hyper-differential sensitivity analysis to understand the sensitivity of feedback controllers to parametric uncertainty in physics-based models used for trajectory planning. These sensitivities provide a foundation to define an optimal experimental design which seeks to acquire data most relevant in reducing demand on the feedback controller. Our proposed framework is illustrated on the Zermelo navigation problem and a hypersonic trajectory control problem using data from NASA’s X-43 hypersonic flight tests.

42 ENGINEERING↗

NASA NTRS1994

The sensitivity to parametric variation in direct minimization techniques

Solutions of some objective analysis techniques are known to depend upon the subjective values of internal parameters. The change in the solution per change in the parameter is the sensitivity. Parameters with low sensitivity can be varied with large increments during preliminary searches for near-optimal parameter values. Only terms with high sensitivity must be thoroughly investigated once the parameters are determined to be close to optimal. Both absolute and relative sensitivities are discussed and a sensitivity-based definition of the solution uncertainty is proposed. The sensitivity of direct minimization analysis to parametric variation is evaluated using a set of 'response functions' that characterize different aspects of the solution. It is shown that solutions of direct minimization techniques have low absolute sensitivity. Two examples are used to illustrate the usefulness of the technique. Both involved measurements of air-sea quantities (e.g., wind stress and latent heat flux) from a variety of data sources using a direct minimization technique. The examples demonstrate that sensitivity analysis is capable of quantifying regional sensitivities as well as indicating the magnitude and relationship between the various parameters.

Meyers, S. D.↗

NASA NTRS1980

Solar energy system economic evaluation: IBM System 2, Togus, Maine

The economic analysis of the solar energy system, is developed for Torgus and four other sites typical of a wide range of environmental and economic conditions in the continental United States. This analysis is accomplished based on the technical and economic models in the f-chart design procedure with inputs taken on the characteristics of the installed system and local conditions. The results are expressed in terms of the economic parameters of present worth of system cost over a projected twenty year life, life cycle savings, year of positive savings and year of payback for the optimized solar energy system at each of the analysis sites. The sensitivity of the economic evaluation to uncertainties in constituent system and economic variables is also investigated. Results demonstrate that the solar energy system is economically viable at all of the five sites for which the analysis was conducted.

Source record↗

NASA NTRS1980

Solar energy system economic evaluation final report for SEMCO-Loxahatchee, Loxahatchee National Wildlife refuge, Palm Beach County, Florida

Economic analysis of the solar energy system installed at Loxahatchee, was developed for Loxahatchee and four other sites typical of a wide range of environmental and economic conditions in the continental United States. This analysis was accomplished based on the technical and economic models in the f Chart design procedure with inputs based on the characteristics of the installed system and local conditions. The results are expressed in terms of the economic parameters of present worth of system costs over a projected twenty year life, life cycle savings, year of positive savings and year of payback for the optimized solar energy system at each of the analysis sites. The sensitivity of the economic evaluation to uncertainties in constituent system and economic variables was also investigated. The results demonstrate that the solar energy system is economically viable at all of the five sites for which the analysis was conducted.

Source record↗

NASA NTRS2012

Uncertainty Analysis of the Grazing Flow Impedance Tube

This paper outlines a methodology to identify the measurement uncertainty of NASA Langley s Grazing Flow Impedance Tube (GFIT) over its operating range, and to identify the parameters that most significantly contribute to the acoustic impedance prediction. Two acoustic liners are used for this study. The first is a single-layer, perforate-over-honeycomb liner that is nonlinear with respect to sound pressure level. The second consists of a wire-mesh facesheet and a honeycomb core, and is linear with respect to sound pressure level. These liners allow for evaluation of the effects of measurement uncertainty on impedances educed with linear and nonlinear liners. In general, the measurement uncertainty is observed to be larger for the nonlinear liners, with the largest uncertainty occurring near anti-resonance. A sensitivity analysis of the aerodynamic parameters (Mach number, static temperature, and static pressure) used in the impedance eduction process is also conducted using a Monte-Carlo approach. This sensitivity analysis demonstrates that the impedance eduction process is virtually insensitive to each of these parameters.

Brown, Martha C.↗

NASA NTRS2002

Effect of Random Geometric Uncertainty on the Computational Design of a 3-D Flexible Wing

The effect of geometric uncertainty due to statistically independent, random, normally distributed shape parameters is demonstrated in the computational design of a 3-D flexible wing. A first-order second-moment statistical approximation method is used to propagate the assumed input uncertainty through coupled Euler CFD aerodynamic / finite element structural codes for both analysis and sensitivity analysis. First-order sensitivity derivatives obtained by automatic differentiation are used in the input uncertainty propagation. These propagated uncertainties are then used to perform a robust design of a simple 3-D flexible wing at supercritical flow conditions. The effect of the random input uncertainties is shown by comparison with conventional deterministic design results. Sample results are shown for wing planform, airfoil section, and structural sizing variables.

Gumbert, C. R.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Uncertainty Quantification of Monolithic Tungsten Target Block Fatigue

The current STS spallation target design consists of 21 water cooled, tantalum clad, monolithic tungsten blocks. The target wheel assembly rotates such that each target block receives a direct proton pulse every 1.4 seconds (21 blocks / 15 Hz pulses). The quasi-steady heating induced by the repetitive beam pulses creates a significant mean stress distribution in the target. On top of this, the rapid energy deposition from a proton pulse induces dynamic stress waves that are of the same order of magnitude as the mean stresses. Over the design goal of 5,000 operational hours per year for a decade, each target must withstand over 130 million repetitions of these dynamic stress events. The fatigue life prediction of the target blocks is a complex sequence of simulations that depend upon a set of input parameters. For the tungsten block, the end goal is the fatigue factor-of-safety (FOS). This study documents a new structural analysis routine using software available to U.S. national laboratories (e.g. CUBIT, Sierra Multiphysics, Dakota) that enables more rapid target fatigue analysis. The increased throughput is amenable to parameter sensitivity and uncertainty quantification (UQ) studies. A set of input parameters (ultimate strength, fatigue strength, density, elastic modulus, Poisson’s ratio, thermal conductivity, coefficient of thermal expansion, specific heat, flow rate) with expected ranges are documented based on literature data, recent experimental testing, and engineering judgement. UQ bounds the resulting fatigue FOS at [0.5, 3.4] using epistemic interval analysis. These bounds are expected to be wider due to model effects (discretization) and beam effects (focus, offset) that were not included. Parameter sensitivity underscores the importance of ultimate strength and fatigue strength of irradiated tungsten on the fatigue calculations.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

NASA NTRS2007

A Risk-Based Approach for Aerothermal/TPS Analysis and Testing

The current status of aerothermal and thermal protection system modeling for civilian entry missions is reviewed. For most such missions, the accuracy of our simulations is limited not by the tools and processes currently employed, but rather by reducible deficiencies in the underlying physical models. Improving the accuracy of and reducing the uncertainties in these models will enable a greater understanding of the system level impacts of a particular thermal protection system and of the system operation and risk over the operational life of the system. A strategic plan will be laid out by which key modeling deficiencies can be identified via mission-specific gap analysis. Once these gaps have been identified, the driving component uncertainties are determined via sensitivity analyses. A Monte-Carlo based methodology is presented for physics-based probabilistic uncertainty analysis of aerothermodynamics and thermal protection system material response modeling. These data are then used to advocate for and plan focused testing aimed at reducing key uncertainties. The results of these tests are used to validate or modify existing physical models. Concurrently, a testing methodology is outlined for thermal protection materials. The proposed approach is based on using the results of uncertainty/sensitivity analyses discussed above to tailor ground testing so as to best identify and quantify system performance and risk drivers. A key component of this testing is understanding the relationship between the test and flight environments. No existing ground test facility can simultaneously replicate all aspects of the flight environment, and therefore good models for traceability to flight are critical to ensure a low risk, high reliability thermal protection system design. Finally, the role of flight testing in the overall thermal protection system development strategy is discussed.

Wright, Michael J.↗

DOE OSTI2021

A novel framework for hosting capacity analysis with spatio-temporal probabilistic voltage sensitivity analysis

Smart grids are envisioned to accommodate high penetration of distributed photovoltaic (PV) generation, which may cause adverse grid impacts in terms of voltage violations. Therefore, PV Hosting capacity is being used as a planning tool to determine the maximum PV installation capacity that causes the first voltage violation and above which would require infrastructure upgrades. Additionally, traditional methods of Hosting capacity analysis are scenario based and computationally complex as they rely on iterative load flow algorithms that require investigating a large number of scenarios for accurate assessment of PV impacts. Therefore, this paper presents a computationally efficient analytical approach to compute the probability distribution of voltage change due to random behavior of randomly located multiple distributed PVs. The proposed approach is based on Spatio-temporal probabilistic voltage sensitivity analysis that exploits both spatial and temporal uncertainties associated with PV injections. Thereafter, the derived distribution is used to quantify voltage violations for various PV penetration levels and subsequently determine the hosting capacity of the system without the need to examine large number of scenarios. Results of the proposed framework are validated via conventional load flow based simulation approach on the IEEE 37 and IEEE 123 node test systems.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2020

LOGOS

LOGOS is a software package which contains a set of discrete optimization models that can be employed for capital budgeting optimization problems. More specifically, provided a set of items (characterized by cost and reward values) and constraints, these models select the best combination of items which maximizes overall reward and satisfies the provided constraints. The developed models are based on different versions of the knapsack optimization algorithms. Two main classes of optimization models have been initially developed: deterministic and stochastic. Stochastic optimization models evolve deterministic models by explicitly considering data uncertainties (associated to constraints or item cost and reward). These models can be employed as stand-alone models or interfaced with the INL developed RAVEN code to propagate data uncertainties and analyze the generated data (i.e., sensitivity analysis).

Wang, Congjian↗

NASA NTRS1999

Pressure Sensitive Paints

This article reviews new advances and applications of pressure sensitive paints in aerodynamic testing. Emphasis is placed on important technical aspects of pressure sensitive paint including instrumentation, data processing, and uncertainty analysis.

Liu, Tianshu↗

NASA NTRS2001

Tropospheric Ozone Near-Nadir-Viewing IR Spectral Sensitivity and Ozone Measurements from NAST-I

Infrared ozone spectra from near nadir observations have provided atmospheric ozone information from the sensor to the Earth's surface. Simulations of the NPOESS Airborne Sounder Testbed-Interferometer (NAST-I) from the NASA ER-2 aircraft (approximately 20 km altitude) with a spectral resolution of 0.25/cm were used for sensitivity analysis. The spectral sensitivity of ozone retrievals to uncertainties in atmospheric temperature and water vapor is assessed in order to understand the relationship between the IR emissions and the atmospheric state. In addition, ozone spectral radiance sensitivity to its ozone layer densities and radiance weighting functions reveals the limit of the ozone profile retrieval accuracy from NAST-I measurements. Statistical retrievals of ozone with temperature and moisture retrievals from NAST-I spectra have been investigated and the preliminary results from NAST-I field campaigns are presented.

Zhou, Daniel K.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Automated Direct Perturbation Calculations with SCALE TSUNAMI [Abstract]

In nuclear criticality safety analysis, the sensitivity of the eigenvalue keff to uncertainties in nuclear data and its evaluation are crucial. The TSUNAMI sequences within the SCALE code system offer users various options with both multigroup (MG) and continuous-energy (CE) 3D Monte Carlo (MC) transport capabilities for calculating keff sensitivity coefficients and storing them in a sensitivity data file (SDF). Each methodology available in TSUNAMI offers distinct advantages and limitations, and its effectiveness can vary based on the specific problem being solved. As a best practice, practitioners typically use the direct perturbation (DP) method as a confirmatory step alongside their sensitivity calculations to verify the accuracy of the sensitivity data generated. In this process, DP calculations are usually performed on select nuclides, those considered most important for validating their total sensitivities. However, because of code limitations, analysts use a workaround method when conducting DP calculations for a single nuclide: rather than perturbing the nuclide's microscopic cross section, an equivalent number density for this nuclide is calculated to reflect the effect of a change in the macroscopic cross section due to a perturbation in the microscopic cross section. The current approach requires rerunning the CSAS criticality calculation several times with model changes. Although this method can yield results with acceptable accuracy, it is labor-intensive and prone to errors.

AZURE: SAMMY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Microreactor Optimization Using Simulation And Economics (mouse)

Microreactor Optimization Using Simulation and Economics (MOUSE) is a tool that integrates both nuclear microreactor design and reactor economics to provide comprehensive evaluations and optimizations. This tool enables stakeholders to explore the interplay between technical and economic variables, guiding them towards effective and competitive microreactor solutions. For the reactor core simulations, MOUSE leverages the OpenMC Monte Carlo Particle Transport Code to perform detailed core simulations for various microreactor designs. The included OpenMC models are 2D core designs of a Liquid Metal Thermal Microreactor (LMTR), a Gas-Cooled TRISO-Fueled Microreactor (GCMR), and a Heat Pipe Microreactor. Beyond core design, MOUSE includes simplified calculations for: - Calculating the masses of heat exchangers within the system. - Mechanical power of pumps. - Estimating the area occupied by various buildings within the nuclear plant. For the economic analysis, MOUSE provides detailed bottom-up cost estimates, encompassing a wide range of costs including preconstruction costs, direct costs, indirect costs, training costs, financial costs, operation & maintenance (O&M) costs, and fuel costs. These cost estimations are developed using data from the MARVEL project and additional literature sources, enabling the calculation of total capital costs and levelized cost of energy for both first-of-a-kind and nth-of-a-kind microreactors. MOUSE also enables analysis of the cost drivers and competitiveness in the electricity market. MOUSE allows users to modify a wide array of technical and economic parameters to evaluate different scenarios and their impacts. Examples of these parameters include: Fuels, coolants, or reflector materials Enrichment levels Control drum materials and geometry Fuel pin geometry and materials Moderator pin geometry and materials Reactor core and reflector dimensions Packing factor for the TRISO particles Nuclear reactor power and reactor burnup Number of sensors Shielding thickness Reactor vessel and guard vessel dimensions Operational staff requirements Number of emergency shutdowns Levelization period Interest rate Construction duration Since MOUSE is powered by the WATTS toolkit, it supports optimization studies, parametric analyses, and uncertainty calculations/propagation. The optimization techniques enable users to identify optimal design and economic configurations. The parametric analysis tools allow users to explore the sensitivity of various parameters, while uncertainty propagation helps quantify the impact of uncertainties on overall performance and cost. User Interface and Workflow: Currently, MOUSE is a command-line-based tool. Users can input various reactor design or economic parameters, modify the designs, run simulations, and visualize results through comprehensive data visualization and reporting capabilities. The typical workflow involves setting up the reactor model, defining economic parameters, running simulations, and analyzing the results to make informed decisions. By combining advanced design calculations with detailed economic modeling, MOUSE provides a robust framework for optimizing nuclear microreactor technologies, enhancing their competitiveness, and guiding stakeholders towards innovative and cost-effective solutions.

Hanna, Botros [Idaho National Laboratory (INL), Id↗

DOE OSTI2020

Imprecise global sensitivity analysis using bayesian multimodel inference and importance sampling

Global Sensitivity Analysis (GSA) aims to understand the relative importance of uncertain input variables to model response. Conventional GSA involves calculating sensitivity (Sobol’) indices for a model with known model parameter distributions. However, model parameters are affected by aleatory and epistemic uncertainty, with the latter often caused by lack of data. In this paper, we propose a new framework to quantify uncertainty in probability model-form and model parameters resulting from small datasets and integrate these uncertainties into Sobol’ index estimates. First, the process establishes, through Bayesian multimodel inference, a set of candidate probability models and their associated probabilities. Imprecise Sobol’ indices are calculated from these probability models using an importance sampling reweighting approach. This results in probabilistic Sobol’ indices, whose distribution characterizes uncertainty in the sensitivity resulting from small dataset size. The imprecise Sobol’ indices thus provide a measure of confidence in the sensitivity estimate and, moreover, can be used to inform data collection efforts targeted to minimize the impact of uncertainties. Through an example studying the parameters of a Timoshenko beam, we show that these probabilistic Sobol’ indices converge to the true/deterministic Sobol’ indices as the dataset size increases and hence, distribution-form uncertainty reduces. The approach is then applied to assess the sensitivity of the out-of-plane properties of an E-glass fiber composite material to its constituent properties. This second example illustrates the approach for an important class of materials with wide-ranging applications when data may be lacking for some input parameters.

42 ENGINEERING↗