TATB Thermal Decomposition: An Improved Kinetic Model for Explosive Safety Analysis
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Physics and technology considerations for the deuterium–tritium fuel cycle and conditions for tritium fuel self sufficiency
The tritium aspects of the DT fuel cycle embody some of the most challenging feasibility and attractiveness issues in the development of fusion systems. The review and analyses in this paper provide important information to understand and quantify these challenges and to define the phase space of plasma physics and fusion technology parameters and features that must guide a serious R&D in the world fusion program. We focus in particular on components, issues and R&D necessary to satisfy three 'principal requirements': (1) achieving tritium self-sufficiency within the fusion system, (2) providing a tritium inventory for the initial start-up of a fusion facility, and (3) managing the safety and biological hazards of tritium. A primary conclusion is that the physics and technology state-of-the-art will not enable DEMO and future power plants to satisfy these principal requirements. We quantify goals and define specific areas and ideas for physics and technology R&D to meet these requirements. A powerful fuel cycle dynamics model was developed to calculate time-dependent tritium inventories and flow rates in all parts and components of the fuel cycle for different ranges of parameters and physics and technology conditions. Dynamics modeling analyses show that the key parameters affecting tritium inventories, tritium start-up inventory, and tritium self-sufficiency are the tritium burn fraction in the plasma (f b ), fueling efficiency (η f ), processing time of plasma exhaust in the inner fuel cycle (t p ), reactor availability factor (AF), reserve time (tr) which determines the reserve tritium inventory needed in the storage system in order to keep the plant operational for time t r in case of any malfunction of any part of the tritium processing system, and the doubling time (t d ). Results show that η f f b > 2% and processing time of 1–4 h are required to achieve tritium self-sufficiency with reasonable confidence. For η f f b = 2% and processing time of 4 h, the tritium start-up inventory required for a 3 GW fusion reactor is ~11 kg, while it is <5 kg if η f f b = 5% and the processing time is 1 h. To achieve these stringent requirements, a serious R&D program in physics and technology is necessary. The EU-DEMO direct internal recycling concept that carries fuel directly from the plasma exhaust gas to the fueling systems without going through the isotope separation system reduces the overall processing time and tritium inventories and has positive effects on the required tritium breeding ratio (TBR R ). A significant finding is the strong dependence of tritium self-sufficiency on the reactor availability factor. Simulations show that tritium self-sufficiency is: impossible if AF < 10% for any η f f b , possible if AF > 30% and 1% ≤ η f f b ≤ 2%, and achievable with reasonable confidence if AF > 50% and η f f b > 2%. These results are of particular concern in light of the low availability factor predicted for the near-term plasma-based experimental facilities (e.g. FNSF, VNS, CTF), and can have repercussions on tritium economy in DEMO reactors as well, unless significant advancements in RAMI are made. There is a linear dependency between the tritium start-up inventory and the fusion power. The required tritium start-up inventory for a fusion facility of 100 MW fusion power is as small as 1 kg. Since fusion power plants will have large powers for better economics, it is important to maintain a 'reserve' tritium inventory in the tritium storage system to continue to fuel the plasma and avoid plant shutdown in case of malfunctions of some parts of the tritium processing lines. But our results show that a reserve time as short as 24 h leads to unacceptable reserve and start-up inventory requirements. Therefore, high reliability and fast maintainability of all components in the fuel cycle are necessary in order to avoid the need for storing reserve tritium inventory sufficient for continued fusion facility operation for more than a few hours. The physics aspects of plasma fueling, tritium burn fraction, and particle and power exhaust are highly interrelated and complex, and predictions for DEMO and power reactors are highly uncertain because of lack of experiments with burning plasma. Fueling by pellet injection on the high field side of tokamak has evolved to be the preferred method to fuel a burning plasma. Extrapolation from the DIII-D penetration scaling shows fueling efficiency expected in DEMO to be <25%, but such extrapolations are highly uncertain. The fueling efficiency of gas in a reactor relevant regime is expected to be extremely poor and not very useful for getting tritium into the core plasma efficiently. Gas fueling will nonetheless be useful for feedback control of the divertor operating parameters. Extensive modeling has been carried out to predict burn fraction, fueling requirements, and fueling efficiency for ITER, DEMO, and beyond. The fueling rate required to operate Q = 10 ITER plasmas in order to provide the required core fueling, helium exhaust and radiative divertor plasma conditions for acceptable divertor power loads was calculated. If this fueling is performed with a 50–50 DT mix, the tritium burn fraction in ITER would be ~0.36%, which is too low to satisfy the self-sufficiency conditions derived from the dynamics modeling for fusion reactors. Extrapolation to DEMO using this approach would also yield similarly low burn fraction. Extensive analysis presented shows that specific features of edge neutral dynamics in ITER and fusion reactors, which are different from present experiments, open possibilities for optimization of tritium fueling and thus to improve the burn fraction. Using only tritium in pellet fueling of the plasma core, and only deuterium for edge density, divertor power load and ELM control results in significant increase of the burn fraction to 1.8–3.6%. These estimates are performed with physics models whose results cannot be fully validated for ITER and DEMO plasma conditions since these cannot be achieved in present tokamak experiments. Thus, several uncertainties remain regarding particle transport and scenario requirements in ITER and DEMO. The safety standard requirements for protection of the public and release guidelines for tritium have been reviewed. General safety approaches including minimizing tritium inventories, reducing tritium permeation through materials, and decontaminating material for waste disposal have been suggested.
73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
Nuclear Safety [Vol. 37, No. 1, January-March 1996]
Nuclear Safety is a journal that covers significant issues in the field of nuclear safety. Its primary scope is safety in the design, construction, operation, and decommissioning of nuclear power reactors worldwide and the research and analysis activities that promote this goal, but it also encompasses the safety aspects of the entire nuclear fuel cycle, including fuel fabrication, spent-fuel processing and handling, and nuclear waste disposal, the handling of fissionable materials and radioisotopes, and the environmental effects of all these activities. Table of Contents for this issue follows. GENERAL SAFETY CONSIDERATIONS: 1 A Decision Support System for Maintenance Management of a Boiling-Water Reactor Power Plant, J. H. Shen, A. Ray, and S. Levine; ACCIDENT ANALYSIS: 12 On Prediction of the Ignition Potential of Uranium Metal and Hydride, M. Epstein, W. Luangdilok, M. G. Plys, and H. K. Fauske; 26 An Overview of the Primary Parameters and Methods for Determining Condensation Heat Transfer to Containment Structures, J. Green and K. Almenas; DESIGN FEATURES: 49 Modem Tornado Design of Nuclear and Other Potentially Hazardous Facilities, J. D. Stevenson and Y. Zaho; U.S. NUCLEAR REGULATORY COMMISSION INFORMATION AND ANALYSES: 73 1994 Accident Sequence Precursor Program Results, R. J. Belles, J. W. Cletcher, D. A. Coplnger, B. W. Dolan, J. W. Minarick, and P. D. O'Reilly; ANNOUNCEMENTS: 93 American Institute of Chemical Engineers (AlChE) Spring 1997 National Meeting; 94 European Safety and Reliability Association International Conference on Safety and Reliability ESREL ’97; 95 Criticality Safety Challenges in the Next Decade; 96 21st International Symposium on the Scientific Basis for Nuclear Waste Management; 84 The Authors; 88 Letter to the Editor; 90 Indexes to Nuclear Safety, Volume 36.
05 NUCLEAR FUELS↗
Nuclear Safety [Vol. 37, No. 1, January-March 1996]
Nuclear Safety is a journal that covers significant issues in the field of nuclear safety. Its primary scope is safety in the design, construction, operation, and decommissioning of nuclear power reactors worldwide and the research and analysis activities that promote this goal, but it also encompasses the safety aspects of the entire nuclear fuel cycle, including fuel fabrication, spent-fuel processing and handling, and nuclear waste disposal, the handling of fissionable materials and radioisotopes, and the environmental effects of all these activities. Table of Contents for this issue follows. GENERAL SAFETY CONSIDERATIONS: 1 A Decision Support System for Maintenance Management of a Boiling-Water Reactor Power Plant, J. H. Shen, A. Ray, and S. Levine; ACCIDENT ANALYSIS: 12 On Prediction of the Ignition Potential of Uranium Metal and Hydride, M. Epstein, W. Luangdilok, M. G. Plys, and H. K. Fauske; 26 An Overview of the Primary Parameters and Methods for Determining Condensation Heat Transfer to Containment Structures, J. Green and K. Almenas; DESIGN FEATURES: 49 Modem Tornado Design of Nuclear and Other Potentially Hazardous Facilities, J. D. Stevenson and Y. Zaho; U.S. NUCLEAR REGULATORY COMMISSION INFORMATION AND ANALYSES: 73 1994 Accident Sequence Precursor Program Results, R. J. Belles, J. W. Cletcher, D. A. Copinger, B. W. Dolan, J. W. Minarick, and P. D. O'Reilly; ANNOUNCEMENTS: 93 American Institute of Chemical Engineers (AlChE) Spring 1997 National Meeting; 94 European Safety and Reliability Association International Conference on Safety and Reliability ESREL ’97; 95 Criticality Safety Challenges in the Next Decade; 96 21st International Symposium on the Scientific Basis for Nuclear Waste Management; 84 The Authors; 88 Letter to the Editor; 90 Indexes to Nuclear Safety, Volume 36.
11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
Enhancing the dielectric constant of zwitterionic liquids via dipole moment and anion chemistry
The dielectric constant is a critical parameter in many energy-related applications. Typically, increasing the dielectric constant of soft materials involves adding high dielectric constant polar liquids or inorganic fillers, but there are limitations to this approach due to safety concerns with volatile and flammable solvents and the agglomeration of inorganic fillers. An alternative approach is to add zwitterionic liquids that exhibit exceptionally high dielectric constants with negligible volatility. Here, we report the synthesis of a series of zwitterionic liquids containing an imidazolium cation, exhibiting the highest dielectric constant among all organic molecules (∼350 at 293 K). The cation–anion linkage was tailored in a wide range between three and nine carbons, rendering the zwitterion dipole from 25 to 52 D. Comparing the dielectric constant for zwitterions with different anions (i.e., sulfonylimide, sulfonate, and carboxylate) reveals the beneficial impacts of the delocalized sulfonylimide anion vs the carboxylate anion due to the enlarged molecular dipole and more homogenous liquid morphology. Molecular dipole and liquid morphology are identified as the keys to developing high dielectric constant zwitterionic liquids. The extremely high dielectric constant accessible with the proposed molecular design paves new avenues for developing high dielectric constant zwitterions that act as dielectricizers.
Chemistry↗
Python-EPICS RF Conditioning Automatic Control System at the Spallation Neutron Source
The RF Test Facility (RFTF) at the Spallation Neutron Source (SNS) is used for the conditioning of RF compo-nents such as ceramic vacuum windows and power cou-plers prior to their installation in the H- ion linear accel-erator. This process exposes components to high-power RF fields and thermal cycling to improve performance and remove surface impurities. To automate and optimize this process, a Python-based EPICS control system was developed alongside targeted hardware upgrades. The system enables real-time monitoring and control of RF power levels, temperature, and vacuum pressure. A user-friendly graphical interface was implemented using CS-Studio (Phoebus), allowing operators to adjust parameters and collect data efficiently. The system integrates a High-Power Protection Module (HPM) for interlocks based on vacuum and arc detection, ensuring safe operation. These upgrades have significantly improved the efficiency, accuracy, and safety of RF conditioning at the SNS RFTF. This paper describes the updated RF conditioning sys-tem, highlighting the software and hardware develop-ments and their application in support of the Proton Pow-er Upgrade (PPU) project.
Lee, Sung-Woo [ORNL] (ORCID:000000030915835X)↗
Improved Modeling of Radiative Neutron Capture Yield for Resonance Parameter Evaluations [Poster]
Abstract not provided.
46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
Gamma-ray Measurements from Neutron Pulsed Die-Away Experiments
Pulsed-neutron die-away experiments are a promising experimental method that complement criticality benchmarks for nuclear data validation. The experiments have several advantages that include compatibility with non-fissile material, low benchmark uncertainties, and high sensitivity to absorption and scattering cross sections. When validating thermal neutron scattering laws, small targets are desirable for their large sensitivity to the scattering cross section and angular distribution. Unfortunately, room return or scattering from a shielding box limits the use of the very small targets needed to maximize sensitivity to thermal scattering laws. To address this problem, we propose changing the observable of the experiment from leaked thermal neutrons to γ-rays produced by (n, γ) reactions in the target. If feasible, this change allows removal of the shielding box, achieving higher sensitivity to thermal neutron scattering laws. This study focuses on replicating benchmark pulsed-neutron die-away experiments with γ-rays. We compare the integral parameters with γ-rays to those obtained with neutrons. We also discuss experimental design choices such as detector placement, shielding, and the presence of Cd. The results show the integral parameter with γ-rays is sensitive to detector location with respect to the target when Cd shielding is present. In addition, while Pb shielding around the γ-ray detectors do not seem to affect the integral parameter, the presence of Cd shielding does and adds background γ-rays to the die-away curves making it difficult to calculate the integral parameter.
46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
Summary of Geometric Parameters and Their Effects on Performance of U-10Mo Fuel Plates
A monolithic plate-type fuel system has been under development to convert high-performance test reactors from highly enriched uranium to low-enrichment uranium fuels and is now moving into the qualification phase, a predecessor to the timely conversion of the target reactors. To qualify this fuel system, the plates must meet safety standards and perform well in a reactor. The plates must maintain mechanical integrity, exhibit geometric stability, and have stable and predictable in-reactor behavior. The requirement to maintain mechanical integrity under normal operating conditions is primarily demonstrated by successful testing. However, each high-performance reactor employs a distinct design, resulting in distinct plate geometries, with unique features, attributes, irregularities, and tolerances. Due to the abundance of such distinct geometric varieties, a single “generic” plate geometry capturing all extremes is not achievable. It is also impractical to test each of these proposed designs in a reactor. This limitation necessitates cautious evaluations since the thermomechanical response of a plate with a certain geometry may not be representative for a plate with a significantly different geometry. To address concerns related to in-reactor plate performance, large set of sensitivity studies were performed. These parametric studies aimed to better understand irradiation performance, while evaluating the sensitivity of results to various modeling inputs, including geometric, operational, and material parameters. This work studied selected geometric parameters based on provided fuel specifications and performed a series of parametric simulations. The resulting temperature, displacement, and stress strains were comparatively evaluated to determine the effects of various geometric parameters. This draft provides a “high-level summary” of our parametric sensitivity studies and summarizes the key findings.
42 ENGINEERING↗
New Pulsed Neutron Die-Away Experiments in Light Water
Thermal neutron scattering laws are important data for many nuclear science and engineering applications, especially criticality safety. Recently, pulsed-neutron die-away experiments have been proposed and used as an experiment to validate thermal neutron scattering laws. These experiments involve irradiating a target moderating material with pulses of neutrons from a neutron generator. The physics of thermal scattering greatly affect how the neutron population in the target exponentially decays via absorption and leakage. Herein, we present experimental results from a new pulsed-neutron die-away experiment of light water that was performed at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory. The experiments were done with cylindrical targets of varying dimensions to modulate the experiment’s sensitivity to thermal scattering and to absorption. We compare the measured integral parameter of the experiment to simulations with MCNP6.2 ® and to past experiments in literature. The integral parameters that were more sensitive to TSLs showed a larger bias. This validation study is known to have errors because the model of the experiment lacks key features about the detectors and neutron generator. These features will be included in the final benchmark evaluation of the experiment which will be submitted to the International Criticality Safety Benchmark Evaluation Project.
46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
Embedded Error Bayesian Calibration of Thermal Decomposition of Organic Materials
Organic materials are an attractive choice for structural components due to their light weight and versatility. However, because they decompose at low temperatures relative to tradiational materials they pose a safety risk due to fire and loss of structural integrity. To quantify this risk, analysts use chemical kinetics models to describe the material pyrolysis and oxidation using thermogravimetric analysis. This process requires the calibration of many model parameters to closely match experimental data. Previous efforts in this field have largely been limited to finding a single best-fit set of parameters even though the experimental data may be very noisy. Furthermore the chemical kinetics models are often simplified representations of the true de- composition process. The simplification induces model-form errors that the fitting process cannot capture. In this work we propose a methodology for calibrating decomposition models to thermogravimetric analysis data that accounts for uncertainty in the model-form and experimental data simultaneously. The methodology is applied to the decomposition of a carbon fiber epoxy composite with a three-stage reaction network and Arrhenius kinetics. The results show a good overlap between the model predictions and thermogravimetric analysis data. Uncertainty bounds capture devia- tions of the model from the data. The calibrated parameter distributions are also presented. In conclusion, the distributions may be used in forward propagation of uncertainty in models that leverage this material.
36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
Optimization and stabilization of Fermilab Booster using hybrid Bayesian/RL framework
PIPII project will raise Fermilab Booster intensity and ramp rate. Beam losses will limit average power and are hard to simulate. Presently, Booster uses operator-guided empirical tuning. This task is challenging due to high dimensionality, multiple objectives, critical safety constraints, and drifts. We developed a synergistic suite of Bayesian optimization (BO) and reinforcement learning (RL) tools to optimize and stabilize beam losses. First, active learning was used to build a rough model. Data was collected parasitically using two novel safety constraint types – nonlinear input space restrictions (based on optics model), and uncertainty constraints (to stop bad steps/beam aborts). We then applied online multi-objective BO with scalarized objectives and fitting to improve/rebalance losses, increasing safety margins by 25%. Using BO model as a safety veto, we tried several on/off-policy RL agents for long term stabilization; SAC had best performance. We found that adding contextual (state) information further improved performance, eventually integrating key knobs like linac phase and temperature into the parameter space. Long term testing is ongoing to enable operational use.
Kuklev, Nikita [Fermilab]↗
Updates and Validation for the n+ 63,65 Cu Cross Sections [Abstract]
The neutron induced total, elastic, and capture cross sections of 63,65 Cu isotopes were selected for evaluation in the resolved and unresolved resonance energy ranges by the National Criticality Safety Program to resolve discrepancies related to benchmark performance. This is especially evident for the series of ZEUS benchmarks in which copper is used as a reflector. Because copper is also used as structural material in both fission and fusion reactors, the need to address benchmark discrepancies linked to nuclear data deficiencies is a task of primary importance. The aim of this work is to describe the steps of evaluation work towards a consistent improvement of the benchmark performance. The R-matrix analysis with the SAMMY code focused on the 63 Cu(n,γ) reaction channel between 100-300 keV coupled to unresolved resonance region parameters up to 650 keV to fit average cross section data from a recent experiment. Due to the high sensitivity of many benchmarks to elastic scattering angular distribution data, especially for the 65 Cu isotope, the impact of these data was tested by generating Legendre coefficients from both resonance parameters and the Hauser-Feshbach model. Guided by the findings of Shaw et al., the performance of the current evaluation for 65 Cu was compared to that of ENDF/B-VII.1 and ENDF/B-VIII.0 by testing the reactivity coefficients corresponding to the validation suite of experimental criticality benchmarks for thermal, intermediate, and fast systems taken from the International Criticality Safety Benchmark Experiments Project Handbook. The benchmark performance is especially sensitive to 63 Cu(n,γ) and 65 Cu elastic scattering for neutron energies in the 100–500 keV region, whereas 100 keV is the upper limit of the resolved resonance region in the ENDF/B-VIII.0 evaluations for 63,65 Cu. The results highlight the need to handle the transition from the resolved resonance region to the high energy region carefully.
07 ISOTOPE AND RADIATION SOURCES↗
Coupling SCALE with DAKOTA for Axial Burnup Profiles Assessment in Burnup Credit
This paper presents a computational study that demonstrates the application of the SCALE code system in conjunction with the Design Analysis Kit for Optimization and Terascale Applications (DAKOTA) for the analysis of key factors influencing the evaluation of burnup credit (BUC) in pressurized water reactors (PWRs). The primary objective of this analysis is to characterize the model by utilizing parameterization, uncertainty quantification, and optimization studies. Using this approach, we can comprehensively assess the system and conduct informed predictive studies. This study highlights the effectiveness of the SCALE code system integrated within the DAKOTA framework in terms of efficiency and capability. With the coupling of the burnup code ORIGAMI with the CSAS or TSUNAMI-3D sequence embedded in a DAKOTA analysis, we can characterize the factors that influence the k eff of PWR 17x17 spent nuclear fuel (SNF) in the GBC-32 computational benchmark cask for the assessment of BUC in criticality safety analysis. The coupling methodology used in this study is not exclusive to BUC analysis. However, the choice to apply this methodology to the BUC problem is particularly significant because of the diverse range of aspects it encompasses in nuclear criticality safety analyses. This problem presents a unique opportunity to explore and address multiple facets of such analyses related to BUC and illustrates the capability of the SCALE code system with DAKOTA. This analysis makes use of historical reference data for the axial burnup profile, where the entire space within the bounds is considered. Both SCALE and DAKOTA are currently integrated in the Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling Simulation (NEAMS) Workbench code system, which has a user-friendly graphical interface that simplifies the setup of simulations and configuration of input parameters as well as the visualization of simulation results.
21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
Developing a Continuous Nuclear Data Evaluation Method for the Resolved and Unresolved Resonance Regions With FITAPI and SAMMY [Poster]
SAMMY is an R-matrix Bayesian fitting program used in the analysis of nuclear cross section data. SAMMY produces separate cross section models in the resolved and unresolved resonance regions. This project develops a new method of continuous evaluation joining both energy regions with FITAPI. Full energy spectrum model introduces cross covariance between physics models allowing more accurate description of uncertainty. Consistency developed between physics models by the use of a unique set of prior parameters. An unresolved region cross section developed with sensitivity to resolved cross section. Incorporation into ORNL FITAPI provides access to greater number of parameter estimation algorithms.
73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
Modeling of Thermal Decomposition of TATB-Based Explosive for Safety Analysis
We investigate and model the cook-off behavior of LX-17 to understand the response of explosive systems in abnormal thermal environments. Decomposition has been explored via conventional ODTX (One-Dimensional Time-to-eXplosion), PODTX (ODTX with pressure-measurement), TGA (Thermo-Gravimetric Analysis), and DSC (Differential Scanning Calorimetry) experiments under isothermal and ramped temperature profiles. The data were used to fit reaction rate parameters for proposed schemes in an ALE3D computational model. This model includes chemical reactions, thermo- and hydro-dynamics, and material properties, including thermal expansion, compressibility, and strength. These parameterizations were carried out utilizing a Python evolutionary optimization method on LLNL’s high-performance computing clusters. Additional experiments are being developed to further characterize and monitor decomposition intermediates to improve the model. Once experimentally validated, this model will be scalable to several applications involving LX-17. Furthermore, the optimization methodology developed herein should be applicable to other high explosive materials.
Chemistry - Chemical explosives↗
Hardware-Based Demonstration of Temperature Control Functions for Reactor Systems
Establishing autonomy in reactor control systems has become essential for the expansion of nuclear technologies. Thermal regulation in particular remains crucial for maintaining stable operation and ensuring the integrity of fuel. To alleviate public skepticism of the safety of nuclear reactors, demonstrating control over this key factor is pivotal. Utilizing electric heat pads to simulate the heat released in a reactor core, thermocouples for temperature monitoring, and an Arduino micro programmable logic controller (PLC) for control, a hardware-based demonstration of a reactor heating system validates the efficacy of reactor control over this key parameter. To improve precision, a proportional-integral-derivative (PID) algorithm was implemented in the heating control loop to ensure meticulous control of reactor functions. In addition, the integration of this physical system with a digital simulator tool such as RELAP5-3D establishes a foundation for a comprehensive testing environment. This allows for a refinement of temperature control under various simulated reactor conditions, bringing another layer of reliability to the operation of the system. By facilitating a physical demonstration of reactor thermal management and control strategies, this project provides a foundation for expanded testing and educational outreach. Ultimately, this system advances the broader goal of demonstrating the safety and viability of autonomous reactor operations, contributing to public trust and future reactor deployment.
22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
Accelerated statistical failure analysis of multifidelity TRISO fuel models
Statistical nuclear fuel failure analysis is critical for the design and development of advanced reactor technologies. Although Monte Carlo Sampling (MCS) is a standard method of statistical failure analysis for fuels, the low failure probabilities of some advanced fuel forms and the correspondingly large number of required model evaluations limit its application to low-fidelity (e.g., 1-D) fuel models. In this paper, we present four other statistical methods for fuel failure analysis in Bison, considering tri-structural isotropic (TRISO)-coated particle fuel as a case study. The statistical methods considered are Latin hypercube sampling (LHS), adaptive importance sampling (AIS), subset simulation (SS), and the Weibull theory. Using these methods, we analyzed both 1-D and 2-D representations of TRISO models to compute failure probabilities and the distributions of fuel properties that result in failures. The results of these methods compare well across all TRISO models considered. Overall, SS and the Weibull theory were deemed the most efficient, and can be applied to both 1-D and 2-D TRISO models to compute failure probabilities. Moreover, since SS also characterizes the distribution of parameters that cause TRISO failures, and can consider failure modes not described by the Weibull criterion, it may be preferred over the other methods. Finally, a discussion on the efficacy of different statistical methods of assessing nuclear fuel safety is provided.
11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗