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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 253 records · Page 14
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Statistical Approaches for Pebble Bed Reactor Operations and Safeguards

The design of pebble bed reactors (PBRs) and their method of operation align more closely with statistical approaches used in manufacturing and process control than traditional safeguards statistical approaches. The reason is PBRs will employ a nondestructive assay (NDA) measurement (burnup measurement system [BUMS]) that is part of the fuel handling system supporting discharge decisions in addition to the reactor code which monitor performance. The integration of these two approaches provides the opportunity to monitor reactor performance statistically for both operations and safeguards in ways not achievable using other reactor designs. For light water reactors (LWRs), knowledge about reactor code performance in predicting irradiated special nuclear material (SNM) content historically was only achieved from special measurement campaigns or from fuel reprocessing. Conversely, through statistical comparison of the BUMS with the reactor code-predicted values, PBRs can achieve this in real time. The resulting SNM distribution is an indicator of reactor performance because factors such as transit time and path of the pebble fuel through the reactor determine the plutonium production and uranium depletion. By analyzing the predicted and measured values, opportunities exist to adjust operating parameters, fuel design, and other characteristics to optimize performance and fuel utilization. From a safeguards perspective, this approach also provides the information necessary to validate declared values and evaluate whether the reactor is being operated as expected. This paper outlines statistical approaches for PBRs that can be used to support both operations and safeguards.

Ball, Cory↗
DOE OSTI2016

Statistical and sensitivity analysis of failing rods in EPR LBLOCA

A statistical fuel failure analysis procedure has been developed, and is now applied in full scale to a large break loss-of-coolant accident (LBLOCA) scenario in EPR-type nuclear power plant. The goal is to statistically determine the number of failing fuel rods. It is also important to bring out the underlying causes for rod failures, and therefore a sensitivity analysis procedure for the preceding complex calculation chain is outlined and adopted. In order to produce a statistically reliable estimation on the number of failing rods, a large number of simulations are required. In the analysis, single rods are simulated with the coupled fuel performance - thermal hydraulics code FRAPTRAN-GENFLO. The statistically varied factors are divided into global and local by their range of influence. Transient thermal hydraulic and power history boundary conditions and model parameters are global and affect all the rods. Fuel rod manufacturing parameters and other rod position related factors are local and are related to a certain rod. The number of global scenarios is 59 as dictated by the Wilks' formula, and 1000 randomly sampled rods are simulated in each scenario. The thermal hydraulic and transient power boundary conditions for the fuel performance code are calculated with a statistical version of the system code APROS. The steady-state irradiation histories are simulated with FRAPCON, and the steady-state power histories used as boundary conditions for FRAPCON are obtained from SIMULATE calculations. Thus, a multistage calculation chain is required to consolidate the procedure. As an outcome, in the worst global scenario, 1.4% of the simulated rods failed. It can be concluded that the Finnish safety regulations, i.e. max. 10% of the rods allowed to fail, are met. In order to find out which input parameters have significance to the outcome of the analysis, a sensitivity analysis is done. At the moment, only the worst global scenario is considered but later on it is possible to include also the sensitivities of the global factors. Due to complexity of the existing data, first the relevant input parameters for the sensitivity analysis have to be specified. Data visualization with a cobweb graph is used for the screening. Then, selected sensitivity measures are calculated between the chosen input and output parameters. The sensitivity indices calculated are the Borgonovo's delta measure, the first order Sobol sensitivity index, and squared Pearson correlation coefficients. The first mentioned is a novelty in this context. As an outcome, the most relevant parameters with respect to the cladding integrity were determined to be the decay heat power during the transient, the thermal hydraulic conditions in the rod's location in the reactor, and the steady-state irradiation history of the rod as represented in this analysis by the rod burnup. (authors)

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Memory access statistics monitoring

Systems, apparatuses, and methods related to memory access statistics monitoring are described. A host is configured to map pages of memory for applications to a number of memory devices coupled thereto. A first memory device comprises a monitoring component configured to monitor access statistics of pages of memory mapped to the first memory device. A second memory device does not include a monitoring component capable of monitoring access statistics of pages of memory mapped thereto. The host is configured to map a portion of pages of memory for an application to the first memory device in order to obtain access statistics corresponding to the portion of pages of memory upon execution of the application despite there being space available on the second memory device and adjust mappings of the pages of memory for the application based on the obtained access statistics corresponding to the portion of pages.

Roberts, David A.↗
DOE OSTI2023

On the statistical theory of self-gravitating collisionless dark matter flow

Dark matter, if it exists, accounts for five times as much as the ordinary baryonic matter. Compared to hydrodynamic turbulence, the flow of dark matter might possess the widest presence in our universe. This paper presents a statistical theory for the flow of dark matter that is compared with N-body simulations. By contrast to hydrodynamics of normal fluids, dark matter flow is self-gravitating, long-range, and collisionless with a scale-dependent flow behavior. The peculiar velocity field is of constant divergence nature on small scale and irrotational on large scale. The statistical measures, i.e., correlation, structure, dispersion, and spectrum functions, are modeled on both small and large scales, respectively. Kinematic relations between statistical measures are fully developed for incompressible, constant divergence, and irrotational flow. Incompressible and constant divergence flow share the same kinematic relations for even order correlations. The limiting correlation of velocity $\mathrm{ρ_{L}=1/2}$ on the smallest scale ( r = 0) is a unique feature of collisionless flow (⁠$\mathrm{ρ_{L}=1}$ for incompressible flow). On large scale, transverse velocity correlation has an exponential form $T_{2}∝e^{–r/r_2}$ with a constant comoving scale r 2 =21.3 Mpc/h that may be related to the horizon size at matter–radiation equality. All other correlation, structure, dispersion, and spectrum functions for velocity, density, and potential fields are derived analytically from kinematic relations for irrotational flow. On small scale, longitudinal structure function follows one-fourth law of ${S}_{2}^{1}∝r^{1/4}$. All other statistical measures can be obtained from kinematic relations for constant divergence flow. Vorticity is negatively correlated for scale r between 1 and 7 Mpc/h. Divergence is negatively correlated for r > 30 Mpc/h that leads to a negative density correlation.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2010

Statistical Exploration of Electronic Structure of Molecules from Quantum Monte-Carlo Simulations

In this report, we present results from analysis of Quantum Monte Carlo (QMC) simulation data with the goal of determining internal structure of a 3N-dimensional phase space of an N-electron molecule. We are interested in mining the simulation data for patterns that might be indicative of the bond rearrangement as molecules change electronic states. We examined simulation output that tracks the positions of two coupled electrons in the singlet and triplet states of an H2 molecule. The electrons trace out a trajectory, which was analyzed with a number of statistical techniques. This project was intended to address the following scientific questions: (1) Do high-dimensional phase spaces characterizing electronic structure of molecules tend to cluster in any natural way? Do we see a change in clustering patterns as we explore different electronic states of the same molecule? (2) Since it is hard to understand the high-dimensional space of trajectories, can we project these trajectories to a lower dimensional subspace to gain a better understanding of patterns? (3) Do trajectories inherently lie in a lower-dimensional manifold? Can we recover that manifold? After extensive statistical analysis, we are now in a better position to respond to these questions. (1) We definitely see clustering patterns, and differences between the H2 and H2tri datasets. These are revealed by the pamk method in a fairly reliable manner and can potentially be used to distinguish bonded and non-bonded systems and get insight into the nature of bonding. (2) Projecting to a lower dimensional subspace ({approx}4-5) using PCA or Kernel PCA reveals interesting patterns in the distribution of scalar values, which can be related to the existing descriptors of electronic structure of molecules. Also, these results can be immediately used to develop robust tools for analysis of noisy data obtained during QMC simulations (3) All dimensionality reduction and estimation techniques that we tried seem to indicate that one needs 4 or 5 components to account for most of the variance in the data, hence this 5D dataset does not necessarily lie on a well-defined, low dimensional manifold. In terms of specific clustering techniques, K-means was generally useful in exploring the dataset. The partition around medoids (pam) technique produced the most definitive results for our data showing distinctive patterns for both a sample of the complete data and time-series. The gap statistic with tibshirani criteria did not provide any distinction across the 2 dataset. The gap statistic w/DandF criteria, Model based clustering and hierarchical modeling simply failed to run on our datasets. Thankfully, the vanilla PCA technique was successful in handling our entire dataset. PCA revealed some interesting patterns for the scalar value distribution. Kernel PCA techniques (vanilladot, RBF, Polynomial) and MDS failed to run on the entire dataset, or even a significant fraction of the dataset, and we resorted to creating an explicit feature map followed by conventional PCA. Clustering using K-means and PAM in the new basis set seems to produce promising results. Understanding the new basis set in the scientific context of the problem is challenging, and we are currently working to further examine and interpret the results.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2015

Statistic inversion of multi-zone transition probability models for aquifer characterization in alluvial fans

Understanding the heterogeneity arising from the complex architecture of sedimentary sequences in alluvial fans is challenging. This study develops a statistical inverse framework in a multi-zone transition probability approach for characterizing the heterogeneity in alluvial fans. An analytical solution of the transition probability matrix is used to define the statistical relationships among different hydrofacies and their mean lengths, integral scales, and volumetric proportions. A statistical inversion is conducted to identify the multi-zone transition probability models and estimate the optimal statistical parameters using the modified Gauss–Newton–Levenberg–Marquardt method. The Jacobian matrix is computed by the sensitivity equation method, which results in an accurate inverse solution with quantification of parameter uncertainty. We use the Chaobai River alluvial fan in the Beijing Plain, China, as an example for elucidating the methodology of alluvial fan characterization. The alluvial fan is divided into three sediment zones. In each zone, the explicit mathematical formulations of the transition probability models are constructed with optimized different integral scales and volumetric proportions. The hydrofacies distributions in the three zones are simulated sequentially by the multi-zone transition probability-based indicator simulations. Finally, the result of this study provides the heterogeneous structure of the alluvial fan for further study of flow and transport simulations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

Multiparameter Methods are the New Field in Statistics

During the last decade statistical problems of a new kind have appeared more and more often, in which the dimensionality of observations is large, and the sample size is small or comparable with the dimensionality of observations. These problems may be characterized as multiparameter problems. The theory of multiparameter analysis, proposed by A.N.Kolmogorov and supported by the studies on the spectral theory of random matrices of V. A.Marchenko, L. A.Pastur, V. L.Girko, and others, revealed some specific phenomena appearing in statistics with a large number of weakly dependent variables. Particularly, there are stable relations between the principal parts of parameter set functions and the set of observed variables, which may be used to improve the statistical analysis. The use of these phenomena allows one to develop a thorough, always stable, and approximately optimal (irrespective of samples) versions of mostly used statistical procedures. The multiparameter versions of the discriminant analysis are of special interest.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2018

Extension of the Concept of Invariance and Statistically Weakly Invariant Sets of Controllable Systems

We continue the study of statistically invariant and statistically weakly invariant sets with respect to controllable systems and differential inclusions launched by Prof. E. L. Tonkov. We examine properties of such statistical characteristics as the lower freq{sub *}(𝜑) and upper freq{sup *}(𝜑) relative frequencies of hitting a solution 𝜑(t) of a differential inclusion in a prescribed set. We obtain estimates and conditions of coincidence of these characteristics for functions whose difference tends to zero at infinity. We also present conditions of statistically weak invariance of a given set of a relatively controllable system.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2011

Commensurability effects in one-dimensional Anderson localization: Anomalies in eigenfunction statistics

Highlights: > Statistics of normalized eigenfunctions in one-dimensional Anderson localization at E = 0 is studied. > Moments of inverse participation ratio are calculated. > Equation for generating function is derived at E = 0. > An exact solution for generating function at E = 0 is obtained. > Relation of the generating function to the phase distribution function is established. - Abstract: The one-dimensional (1d) Anderson model (AM), i.e. a tight-binding chain with random uncorrelated on-site energies, has statistical anomalies at any rational point f=(2a)/({lambda}{sub E}) , where a is the lattice constant and {lambda}{sub E} is the de Broglie wavelength. We develop a regular approach to anomalous statistics of normalized eigenfunctions {psi}(r) at such commensurability points. The approach is based on an exact integral transfer-matrix equation for a generating function {Phi}{sub r}(u, {phi}) (u and {phi} have a meaning of the squared amplitude and phase of eigenfunctions, r is the position of the observation point). This generating function can be used to compute local statistics of eigenfunctions of 1d AM at any disorder and to address the problem of higher-order anomalies at f=p/q with q > 2. The descender of the generating function P{sub r}({phi}){identical_to}{Phi}{sub r}(u=0,{phi}) is shown to be the distribution function of phase which determines the Lyapunov exponent and the local density of states. In the leading order in the small disorder we derived a second-order partial differential equation for the r-independent ('zero-mode') component {Phi}(u, {phi}) at the E = 0 (f=1/2 ) anomaly. This equation is nonseparable in variables u and {phi}. Yet, we show that due to a hidden symmetry, it is integrable and we construct an exact solution for {Phi}(u, {phi}) explicitly in quadratures. Using this solution we computed moments I{sub m} = N< vertical bar {psi} vertical bar {sup 2m}> (m {>=} 1) for a chain of the length N {yields} {infinity} and found an essential difference between their m-behavior in the center-of-band anomaly and for energies outside this anomaly. Outside the anomaly the 'extrinsic' localization length defined from the Lyapunov exponent coincides with that defined from the inverse participation ratio ('intrinsic' localization length). This is not the case at the E = 0 anomaly where the extrinsic localization length is smaller than the intrinsic one. At E = 0 one also observes an anomalous enhancement of large moments compatible with existence of yet another, much smaller characteristic length scale.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2014

An ensemble Kalman filter for statistical estimation of physics constrained nonlinear regression models

A central issue in contemporary science is the development of nonlinear data driven statistical–dynamical models for time series of noisy partial observations from nature or a complex model. It has been established recently that ad-hoc quadratic multi-level regression models can have finite-time blow-up of statistical solutions and/or pathological behavior of their invariant measure. Recently, a new class of physics constrained nonlinear regression models were developed to ameliorate this pathological behavior. Here a new finite ensemble Kalman filtering algorithm is developed for estimating the state, the linear and nonlinear model coefficients, the model and the observation noise covariances from available partial noisy observations of the state. Several stringent tests and applications of the method are developed here. In the most complex application, the perfect model has 57 degrees of freedom involving a zonal (east–west) jet, two topographic Rossby waves, and 54 nonlinearly interacting Rossby waves; the perfect model has significant non-Gaussian statistics in the zonal jet with blocked and unblocked regimes and a non-Gaussian skewed distribution due to interaction with the other 56 modes. We only observe the zonal jet contaminated by noise and apply the ensemble filter algorithm for estimation. Numerically, we find that a three dimensional nonlinear stochastic model with one level of memory mimics the statistical effect of the other 56 modes on the zonal jet in an accurate fashion, including the skew non-Gaussian distribution and autocorrelation decay. On the other hand, a similar stochastic model with zero memory levels fails to capture the crucial non-Gaussian behavior of the zonal jet from the perfect 57-mode model.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2015

A model and variance reduction method for computing statistical outputs of stochastic elliptic partial differential equations

We present a model and variance reduction method for the fast and reliable computation of statistical outputs of stochastic elliptic partial differential equations. Our method consists of three main ingredients: (1) the hybridizable discontinuous Galerkin (HDG) discretization of elliptic partial differential equations (PDEs), which allows us to obtain high-order accurate solutions of the governing PDE; (2) the reduced basis method for a new HDG discretization of the underlying PDE to enable real-time solution of the parameterized PDE in the presence of stochastic parameters; and (3) a multilevel variance reduction method that exploits the statistical correlation among the different reduced basis approximations and the high-fidelity HDG discretization to accelerate the convergence of the Monte Carlo simulations. The multilevel variance reduction method provides efficient computation of the statistical outputs by shifting most of the computational burden from the high-fidelity HDG approximation to the reduced basis approximations. Furthermore, we develop a posteriori error estimates for our approximations of the statistical outputs. Based on these error estimates, we propose an algorithm for optimally choosing both the dimensions of the reduced basis approximations and the sizes of Monte Carlo samples to achieve a given error tolerance. We provide numerical examples to demonstrate the performance of the proposed method.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2019

Statistically informed upscaling of damage evolution in brittle materials

The presence and growth of micro-cracks degrade the strength of brittle solids, greatly impacting the overall material response. Hence, the evolution of these micro-cracks must be accounted for in models describing the relationship between stress and strain so that accurate predictions of material failure can be made. The evolution of individual cracks and crack networks can be simulated with high-fidelity microscale models utilizing highly resolved meshes that can be computationally expensive to a point in which it limits the simulation scale. Hence, for many engineering applications that require simulations of large components, continuum-scale models, which cannot explicitly resolve individual cracks and thus lose important physical information, are required. In this work, we bridge these two scales by developing and implementing a continuum-scale effective moduli constitutive model that is informed by crack statistics generated from a high-fidelity model resolved using a finite-discrete element method (FDEM) implementation. Using statistical information describing the evolution of crack lengths and orientations, this model can capture the effects of brittle damage evolution without the need to resolve individual cracks. We have successfully captured the stress-strain behavior of the high-fidelity simulations using the statistics-based constitutive model shown through direct comparison of stress-strain curves. The curves match within error bars present in the strain-softening portions of the stress-strain curve of the high-fidelity results due to the statistical variation of the initial pre-existing crack network. In conclusion, the stress-strain curves are also compared to experimental results for similar loading conditions and show good qualitative agreement.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2019

Statistical Inference Over Persistent Homology Predicts Fluid Flow in Porous Media

Here, we statistically infer fluid flow and transport properties of porous materials based on their geometry and connectivity, without the need for detailed We summarize structure by persistent homology and then determines the similarity of structures using image analysis and statistics. Longer term, this may enable quick and automated categorization of rocks into known archetypes. We first compute persistent homology of binarized 3D images of material subvolume samples. The persistence parameter is the signed Euclidean distance from inferred material interfaces, which captures the distribution of sizes of pores and grains. Each persistence diagram is converted into an image vector. Here, we infer structural similarity by calculating image similarity. For each image vector, we compute principal components to extract features. We fit statistical models to features estimates material permeability, tortuosity, and anisotropy. We develop a Structural SIMilarity index to determine statistical representative elementary volumes.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2011

Beyond quantum microcanonical statistics

Descriptions of molecular systems usually refer to two distinct theoretical frameworks. On the one hand the quantum pure state, i.e., the wavefunction, of an isolated system is determined to calculate molecular properties and their time evolution according to the unitary Schroedinger equation. On the other hand a mixed state, i.e., a statistical density matrix, is the standard formalism to account for thermal equilibrium, as postulated in the microcanonical quantum statistics. In the present paper an alternative treatment relying on a statistical analysis of the possible wavefunctions of an isolated system is presented. In analogy with the classical ergodic theory, the time evolution of the wavefunction determines the probability distribution in the phase space pertaining to an isolated system. However, this alone cannot account for a well defined thermodynamical description of the system in the macroscopic limit, unless a suitable probability distribution for the quantum constants of motion is introduced. We present a workable formalism assuring the emergence of typical values of thermodynamic functions, such as the internal energy and the entropy, in the large size limit of the system. This allows the identification of macroscopic properties independently of the specific realization of the quantum state. A description of material systems in agreement with equilibrium thermodynamics is then derived without constraints on the physical constituents and interactions of the system. Furthermore, the canonical statistics is recovered in all generality for the reduced density matrix of a subsystem.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2015

Effects of forcing time scale on the simulated turbulent flows and turbulent collision statistics of inertial particles

In this paper, we study systematically the effects of forcing time scale in the large-scale stochastic forcing scheme of Eswaran and Pope [“An examination of forcing in direct numerical simulations of turbulence,” Comput. Fluids 16, 257 (1988)] on the simulated flow structures and statistics of forced turbulence. Using direct numerical simulations, we find that the forcing time scale affects the flow dissipation rate and flow Reynolds number. Other flow statistics can be predicted using the altered flow dissipation rate and flow Reynolds number, except when the forcing time scale is made unrealistically large to yield a Taylor microscale flow Reynolds number of 30 and less. We then study the effects of forcing time scale on the kinematic collision statistics of inertial particles. We show that the radial distribution function and the radial relative velocity may depend on the forcing time scale when it becomes comparable to the eddy turnover time. This dependence, however, can be largely explained in terms of altered flow Reynolds number and the changing range of flow length scales present in the turbulent flow. We argue that removing this dependence is important when studying the Reynolds number dependence of the turbulent collision statistics. The results are also compared to those based on a deterministic forcing scheme to better understand the role of large-scale forcing, relative to that of the small-scale turbulence, on turbulent collision of inertial particles. To further elucidate the correlation between the altered flow structures and dynamics of inertial particles, a conditional analysis has been performed, showing that the regions of higher collision rate of inertial particles are well correlated with the regions of lower vorticity. Regions of higher concentration of pairs at contact are found to be highly correlated with the region of high energy dissipation rate.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2017

Monte Carlo simulations of time-of-flight PET with double-ended readout: calibration, coincidence resolving times and statistical lower bounds

Here, this paper demonstrates through Monte Carlo simulations that a practical positron emission tomograph with (1) deep scintillators for efficient detection, (2) double-ended readout for depth-of-interaction information, (3) fixed-level analog triggering, and (4) accurate calibration and timing data corrections can achieve a coincidence resolving time (CRT) that is not far above the statistical lower bound. One Monte Carlo algorithm simulates a calibration procedure that uses data from a positron point source. Annihilation events with an interaction near the entrance surface of one scintillator are selected, and data from the two photodetectors on the other scintillator provide depth-dependent timing corrections. Another Monte Carlo algorithm simulates normal operation using these corrections and determines the CRT. A third Monte Carlo algorithm determines the CRT statistical lower bound by generating a series of random interaction depths, and for each interaction a set of random photoelectron times for each of the two photodetectors. The most likely interaction times are determined by shifting the depth-dependent probability density function to maximize the joint likelihood for all the photoelectron times in each set. Example calculations are tabulated for different numbers of photoelectrons and photodetector time jitters for three 3 × 3 × 30 mm 3 scintillators: Lu 2 SiO 5 :Ce,Ca (LSO), LaBr 3 :Ce, and a hypothetical ultra-fast scintillator. To isolate the factors that depend on the scintillator length and the ability to estimate the DOI, CRT values are tabulated for perfect scintillator-photodetectors. For LSO with 4000 photoelectrons and single photoelectron time jitter of the photodetector J = 0.2 ns (FWHM), the CRT value using the statistically weighted average of corrected trigger times is 0.098 ns FWHM and the statistical lower bound is 0.091 ns FWHM. For LaBr 3 :Ce with 8000 photoelectrons and J = 0.2 ns FWHM, the CRT values are 0.070 and 0.063 ns FWHM, respectively. For the ultra-fast scintillator with 1 ns decay time, 4000 photoelectrons, and J = 0.2 ns FWHM, the CRT values are 0.021 and 0.017 ns FWHM, respectively. Lastly, the examples also show that calibration and correction for depth-dependent variations in pulse height and in annihilation and optical photon transit times are necessary to achieve these CRT values.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2016

Cosmology constraints from shear peak statistics in Dark Energy Survey Science Verification data

Shear peak statistics has gained a lot of attention recently as a practical alternative to the two point statistics for constraining cosmological parameters. We perform a shear peak statistics analysis of the Dark Energy Survey (DES) Science Verification (SV) data, using weak gravitational lensing measurements from a 139 deg$^2$ field. We measure the abundance of peaks identified in aperture mass maps, as a function of their signal-to-noise ratio, in the signal-to-noise range $0<\mathcal S / \mathcal N<4$. To predict the peak counts as a function of cosmological parameters we use a suite of $N$-body simulations spanning 158 models with varying $\Omega_{\rm m}$ and $\sigma_8$, fixing $w = -1$, $\Omega_{\rm b} = 0.04$, $h = 0.7$ and $n_s=1$, to which we have applied the DES SV mask and redshift distribution. In our fiducial analysis we measure $\sigma_{8}(\Omega_{\rm m}/0.3)^{0.6}=0.77 \pm 0.07$, after marginalising over the shear multiplicative bias and the error on the mean redshift of the galaxy sample. We introduce models of intrinsic alignments, blending, and source contamination by cluster members. These models indicate that peaks with $\mathcal S / \mathcal N>4$ would require significant corrections, which is why we do not include them in our analysis. We compare our results to the cosmological constraints from the two point analysis on the SV field and find them to be in good agreement in both the central value and its uncertainty. As a result, we discuss prospects for future peak statistics analysis with upcoming DES data.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2019

Sparse Bayesian mass mapping with uncertainties: peak statistics and feature locations

ABSTRACT Weak lensing convergence maps – upon which higher order statistics can be calculated – can be recovered from observations of the shear field by solving the lensing inverse problem. For typical surveys this inverse problem is ill-posed (often seriously) leading to substantial uncertainty on the recovered convergence maps. In this paper we propose novel methods for quantifying the Bayesian uncertainty in the location of recovered features and the uncertainty in the cumulative peak statistic – the peak count as a function of signal-to-noise ratio (SNR). We adopt the sparse hierarchical Bayesian mass-mapping framework developed in previous work, which provides robust reconstructions and principled statistical interpretation of reconstructed convergence maps without the need to assume or impose Gaussianity. We demonstrate our uncertainty quantification techniques on both Bolshoi N-body (cluster scale) and Buzzard V-1.6 (large-scale structure) N-body simulations. For the first time, this methodology allows one to recover approximate Bayesian upper and lower limits on the cumulative peak statistic at well-defined confidence levels.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗