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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 253 records · Page 14
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Reconceptualizing Off-Ramps as a Tool of U.S.-China Escalation Management

Great power rivalry, at any point on the competition spectrum, involves assessments of risks and decisions on where to take them. Assessing risk versus reward is also integral to the decision to cooperate in the form of arrangements like arms control. As Donald Brennan wrote more than sixty years ago, the value in arms control lies in whether it “reduce[s] the hazards of the present armament policies by a factor greater than the amount of risk introduced by the control measures themselves.” 2 States can assume in peacetime the risks inherent in cooperating with an adversary, to attempt to mitigate risks likely to arise in crisis or conflict. Or they can choose to forgo cooperation and assume risks later, which will complicate their ability to manage crises, war, and war termination.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗
NASA NTRS2000

Different Approaches for Ensuring Performance/Reliability of Plastic Encapsulated Microcircuits (PEMs) in Space Applications

Engineers within the commercial and aerospace industries are using trade-off and risk analysis to aid in reducing spacecraft system cost while increasing performance and maintaining high reliability. In many cases, Commercial Off-The-Shelf (COTS) components, which include Plastic Encapsulated Microcircuits (PEMs), are candidate packaging technologies for spacecrafts due to their lower cost, lower weight and enhanced functionality. Establishing and implementing a parts program that effectively and reliably makes use of these potentially less reliable, but state-of-the-art devices, has become a significant portion of the job for the parts engineer. Assembling a reliable high performance electronic system, which includes COTS components, requires that the end user assume a risk. To minimize the risk involved, companies have developed methodologies by which they use accelerated stress testing to assess the product and reduce the risk involved to the total system. Currently, there are no industry standard procedures for accomplishing this risk mitigation. This paper will present the approaches for reducing the risk of using PEMs devices in space flight systems as developed by two independent Laboratories. The JPL procedure involves primarily a tailored screening with accelerated stress philosophy while the APL procedure is primarily, a lot qualification procedure. Both Laboratories successfully have reduced the risk of using the particular devices for their respective systems and mission requirements.

Gerke, R. David↗
DOE OSTI2025

Phase II Field Demonstration at Lansing Smith Generating Plant, Southport, Florida (Final Report)

The Final Technical Report: Field Test Design and Pressure Management Strategies for Phase II Field Demonstration of Optimal Pressure Control, Plume Management, and Produced Water Strategies presents the culmination of multi-year efforts under the U.S. Department of Energy’s Brine Extraction and Storage Test (BEST) program, led by EPRI in partnership with Gulf Power at the Plant Smith site near Panama City, Florida. The project was designed to evaluate and demonstrate the technical feasibility of managing subsurface pressures and fluid movement associated with large-scale CO₂ injection, using low-salinity water as a proxy fluid. Through a combination of field injection testing, reservoir modeling, and optimization studies, the research team developed and refined active and passive brine extraction strategies aimed at controlling injection-induced pressure buildup, mitigating risks of fault activation, and managing plume migration. The field demonstration incorporated a new injection well (TIW-2), a new monitoring/extraction well (TEMW-A), and an existing well (TIW-1) repurposed for passive pressure relief. Complementary geophysical monitoring was designed to track plume development and evaluate the effectiveness of pressure management strategies. The report details the integrated workflow encompassing wellfield development, regulatory permitting, model calibration, and survey design. It includes a comprehensive electromagnetic (EM) modeling and inversion study used to develop a cost-effective, time-lapse geophysical monitoring plan capable of imaging the evolving low-salinity plume within the highly saline Lower Tuscaloosa formation. Reservoir simulation results guided the design of the 17-month injection program and the timing of active extraction to maintain formation pressures below a hypothetical fault reactivation threshold. Supporting analyses evaluated potential injectivity risks related to clay fines migration and geochemical incompatibility, identifying practical mitigation measures such as salinity and pH control. The final design recommends a series of crosswell EM surveys—conducted before, during, and after injection—as the most effective and economical approach for plume imaging, supplemented by continuous downhole pressure and flow monitoring. Collectively, the study provides a field-ready framework for cost-effective pressure management and monitoring in support of future CO₂ storage projects.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗
NASA NTRS1993

Risk-Assessment Computer Program

RISK D/C is prototype computer program assisting in attempts to do program risk modeling for Space Exploration Initiative (SEI) architectures proposed in Synthesis Group Report. Risk assessment performed with respect to risk events, probabilities, and severities of potential results. Enables ranking, with respect to effectiveness, of risk-mitigation strategies proposed for exploration program architecture. Allows for fact that risk assessment in early phases of planning subjective. Although specific to SEI in present form, also used as software framework for development of risk-assessment programs for other specific uses. Developed for Macintosh(TM) series computer. Requires HyperCard(TM) 2.0 or later, as well as 2 Mb of random-access memory and System 6.0.8 or later.

Dias, William C.↗
NASA NTRS2023

Risk Trade-Space Analysis for Safe Human Expeditions to Mars

We assessed the integrated safety, health, and performance risk to crews on long-duration missions, specifically to Mars. Using a systems approach rather than one focused on individual countermeasures, we examined the trade space around several such risks to identify high-potential risk mitigation strategies and characterize aspects of Mars mission architectures that could lower aggregated risk. Current Mars Design Reference missions would require durations well over two years and would increase crew exposure to radiation and microgravity well beyond ISS levels, likely resulting in significantly reduced performance beyond our current capability to mitigate that could jeopardize mission success. A “fast Mars transit” round-trip mission concept was studied using an innovative flight dynamics approach to quantify the minimum total mission energy required for a Mars transit with total mission duration less than 400 days. This approach holds promise for sending humans to Mars and returning them safely with acceptable, potentially mitigatable, exposure to microgravity and radiation using current or near-term technologies. The fast transit concept would also result in fewer time-driven vehicle failures and enable sustainable deployment of humans and infrastructure to Mars on a regular cadence, allowing steady exploration and colonization of Mars. Finally, we conclude that reliance on the Low Earth Orbit (LEO) mission operations paradigm – i.e., one of near-complete real-time dependence on experts at Mission Control to manage the combined state of the mission, vehicle, and crew – is high risk given the communication delays and limited resupply of any Mars mission, and this risk is not eliminated by the shorter missions durations of fast transit scenarios. Based on historical trends, it is highly likely that the crew will face a high-consequence problem of uncertain origin during Mars transit when ground support will be greatly reduced. While it may be possible to reduce anomaly rates through improved reliability analysis and testing, and to reduce anomaly impacts through added robustness, such mitigations address only known failure modes and known uncertainties. Therefore, a radical shift in the Human-Systems Integration Architecture (HSIA) that defines the operational paradigm, systems design, and human-systems interactions is required to improve the risk posture to an acceptable level regardless of mission duration.

Mars↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Assessing Environmental and Socioeconomic Factors of Urban Flood Vulnerability in Kansas City, Kansas

Pluvial flooding, over-saturated ground, and drainage systems disproportionately impact historically marginalized urban neighborhoods during extreme rainfall events. These communities are impacted by physical and socioeconomic factors that make them vulnerable to flooding events, such as high concentrations of impervious landcover, high precipitation rates, and a combined sewer system framework. Despite known vulnerability to environmental hazards, understanding potential pluvial street-level flooding events are largely unknown. Using the open-source National Capital Project’s Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) Urban Flood Risk Mitigation model, NASA DEVELOP examined neighborhood scale runoff retention and potential economic damages for risk mapping throughout Kansas City, Kansas. The generated outputs aid in identifying vulnerable neighborhoods susceptible to flooding and in need of future intervention. Previous studies have applied this model framework to understand urban flood vulnerability regarding ecosystem services, urban planning, and flood mitigation strategies. We utilized the InVEST outputs to develop indices pertaining to environmental justice factors of race, socioeconomic status, social vulnerability, and health. The findings indicate that historically redlined neighborhoods in Kansas City, Kansas face disproportional impacts from flood events and are subject to greater environmental stressors. This research provides an approach to utilizing an open-source flood vulnerability model to empower neighborhood-scale environmental justice analysis, enhancing the local communities' understanding of present-day impacts of historical environmental injustices.

Hadwynne Gross↗
NASA NTRS2000

ISS Utilization and Countermeasure Validation: Implementing the Critical Path Roadmap to Reduce Uncertainties of Extended Human Spaceflight Expeditions

Human exploration of space requires the ability to understand and mitigate risks to crews exposed to the conditions associated with such missions. This becomes a greater imperative as we prepare for interplanetary expeditions involving humans who will be subjected to long transit periods in microgravity as they travel to a distant planet such as Mars, embark and live on the planet's surface for an extended time, and finally, return to the 1 g environment of Earth. We need to know, more definitively, what the human health, safety, and performance risks are, and how to prevent or counteract them throughout all phases of a long duration mission. The Johnson Space Center's Space and Life Sciences Directorate along with the National Space Biomedical Research Institute (NSBRI) have been engaged in a strategic planning effort that identifies the most critical risks confronting humans who will venture forth on such missions and the types of research and technology efforts required to mitigate and otherwise reduce the probability and/or severity of those risks. This paper describes the unique approach used to define, assess and prioritize the risks and presents the results of the assessment with an emphasis on the research and technology priorities that will help us to meet the challenge of long duration human spaceflight missions.

Leveton, Lauren B.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Fracture Network Prediction Using Physics-based Machine Learning Algorithms

In recent years, systematic CO2 injection into geological reservoirs across the U.S. has gained traction as a strategy to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions. This approach necessitates precise monitoring to ensure secure containment, minimize risks, and optimize storage management. Our study leverages machine learning (ML) techniques to advance the understanding of CO2 injection processes, focusing on the Illinois Basin. Over a three-year injection period, we analyzed microseismic data, identifying 19 temporal intervals with significant bottom-hole pressure changes. By partitioning microseismic events into these intervals and estimating b-values, we revealed over 100 clusters of events related to fracture initiation or reactivation. Advanced spatial analysis highlighted horizontally-oriented fractures along the NNW-SSE axis. This quantification of fracture networks informs dynamic injection scheduling, work-over strategies, and risk assessments, enhancing carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) operations. Additionally, our methodology offers valuable insights for oil and gas operations and geothermal development, supporting fracture-based monitoring and risk mitigation.

Kumar, Abhash↗
NASA NTRS2000

Managing Risk for Thermal Vacuum Testing of the International Space Station Radiators

The International Space Station (ISS) is designed with large deployable radiator panels that are used to reject waste heat from the habitation modules. Qualification testing of the Heat Rejection System (HRS) radiators was performed using qualification hardware only. As a result of those tests, over 30 design changes were made to the actual flight hardware. Consequently, a system level test of the flight hardware was needed to validate its performance in the final configuration. A full thermal vacuum test was performed on the flight hardware in order to demonstrate its ability to deploy on-orbit. Since there is an increased level of risk associated with testing flight hardware, because of cost and schedule limitations, special risk mitigation procedures were developed and implemented for the test program, This paper introduces the Continuous Risk Management process that was utilized for the ISS HRS test program. Testing was performed in the Space Power Facility at the NASA Glenn Research Center, Plum Brook Station located in Sandusky, Ohio. The radiator system was installed in the 100-foot diameter by 122-foot tall vacuum chamber on a special deployment track. Radiator deployments were performed at several thermal conditions similar to those expected on-orbit using both the primary deployment mechanism and the back-up deployment mechanism. The tests were highly successful and were completed without incident.

Carek, Jerry A.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Got risk? risk-centric perspective for spacecraft technology decision-making

A risk-based decision-making methodology conceived and developed at JPL and NASA has been used to aid in decision making for spacecraft technology assessment, adoption, development and operation. It takes a risk-centric perspective, through which risks are used as a reasoning step to interpose between mission objectives and risk mitigation measures.

risk↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Impact Outputs for A Representative Extended Duration Artemis Mission

BACKGROUND: As NASA and private industry begin preparation for long-duration spaceflight, quantifying the impact that potential human health and performance capabilities have on crew health outcomes is imperative for medical risk mitigation. NASA’s Informing Mission Planning via Analysis of Complex Tradespaces tool (IMPACT) applies Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) methodology to estimate these outcomes. OVERVIEW: As NASA prepares to return to the Moon, medical system planning has already begun for extended Artemis missions, which will see humans spending months at a time in cis-lunar space and on the surface of the Moon. The Long Duration Lunar Orbital and Lunar Surface (LDLOLS) design reference mission (DRM) lasts 9 months, including 3 months on the lunar surface, and involves 2 male and 2 female crewmembers. LDLOLS assumes no extravehicular activities (EVAs) in orbit, but, while on the lunar surface, involves 2-4 EVAs/month in a pressurized rover and 2-4 EVAs/month in an unpressurized rover or on foot. This DRM assumes a physician level Crew Medical Officer with commensurate knowledge, skills, and abilities. The IMPACT tool was utilized to estimate in-flight medical risk for this mission. More specifically, 100,000 simulations of this DRM were modeled, and overall estimates for loss of crew life (LOCL), need for evacuation (RTDC; return to definitive care), and crew task time lost (TTL; a measure of disability) were calculated. A recommended medical capability set, with appropriate mass and volume constraints, was also generated. DISCUSSION: This abstract reviews the IMPACT-derived risk for these mission outcomes with and without treatment, a macroscopic look at the total mass and volume necessary for full diagnostic and treatment capability, and how these change with input mission parameters.

J G Steller↗
DOE OSTI2021

Survey of Cyber Risk Analysis Techniques for Use in the Nuclear Industry

Using traditional probabilistic risk analysis methods for severe accident safety risk management on non-digital systems, structures, and components at nuclear power plants is well-established. In contrast, cyber risk analysis of digital assets is still an immature field with unproven techniques due, in part, to the continuously changing threat environment and the challenge of digital assets failing in unexpected ways. As the nuclear fleet continues to adopt digital instrumentation and control systems, it is increasingly important to have effective and efficient cyber risk analysis techniques to support risk management decisions, such as risk elimination by system redesign or risk mitigation by implementation of prioritized security controls. To understand the state of the art in cyber risk analysis for future research, we surveyed 36 publications across ten application domains. We describe our survey methodology and rate each technique based upon scope, adoptability, and repeatability. In this work, we examine the unique constraints of the nuclear industry and outline the strengths and weaknesses of using the cyber risk analysis techniques in the industry, highlighting gaps with current techniques. We also discuss challenges and potential research directions for advancing the science for both existing and new advanced reactors.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Risk-informed Graded Approach for Reliability and Performance Assessment of Sensor and Instrumentation Systems within Advanced Condition Monitoring Technologies

Advanced condition monitoring (ACM) technologies, such as digital twins, are innovative strategies designed to provide real-time health insights, including the remaining useful life of components. The primary goal of ACM is to predict and alert operators to potential functional failures before they occur. ACM systems achieve this by integrating predictive models with various sensor instrumentation, analog-to-digital converters, data warehouses, and data pre-processors. These sensor and instrumentation systems (SIS) are essential for forming a comprehensive understanding of component conditions and ensuring the predictive success of ACM programs. Introducing new technologies like ACM involves varying degrees of risk that can impact plant reliability. Therefore, risk mitigation should be commensurate with the performance and reliability of the developed technology, following a risk-informed graded approach (RIGA). Establishing a RIGA process requires a clear understanding of the hazards and reliability of all subsystems, including their interdependencies and potential impacts on the overall system. Given the critical role of SIS in ACM, this work reviews hazard identification and reliability quantification methods for SIS. It also considers these methods' implications when developing a RIGA process for ACM.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Sustaining Thermal Protection Systems Needed for Uranus Probes

Summary: Achieving Uranus in-situ science objectives through deploying probes in the atmosphere requires thermal protection systems capable of withstanding extreme entry environments. NASA’s 3-D Woven based thermal protection systems (TPS), developed specifically to meet this challenge, are mature, efficient, and capable of withstanding such entry. These science-enabling capabilities need to be sustained, otherwise mission implementation risk may increase to the point that the mission is untenable. The heatshield technology has been developed in concert with industry, and manufacturing processes have been technology transferred. Current technology readiness does not guarantee future availability. Sustainment requires maintaining expertise within NASA as well as ensuring that proven industrial expertise and capabilities will be readily available in the future. A constant awareness and risk assessment followed by risk mitigation are required. The scientific community needs to be aware of these challenges. It needs to engage NASA to ensure these capabilities will be available when needed. As was the case with the atrophy of heritage carbon phenolic that led to developing the 3-D Woven capabilities, our vigilance is again needed to sustain these enabling TPS capabilities for Uranus and for other missions. Background: NASA invested in and developed Heatshield for Extreme Entry Environment Technology (HEEET) TPS that was matured to TRL 6 in 2019 as a tiled system with seams and gap-fillers. Manufacturing readiness included development of specialized looms, molding, and infusion processes using commercial partners. In support of the Mars Sample Return mission, a single-layer, seamless, single-piece variant referred to as 3MDCP (3-D woven Mid-Density Carbon-Phenolic) was developed and is limited to a 1.3m maximum diameter scale due to weaving width limitations of 80”. Molding techniques developed to transform a flat, 2”-thick 3-D woven preform into a sphere-cone shape prior to phenolic resin infusion has been demonstrated. A team at NASA Ames is currently working with industry to demonstrate infusion at full-scale. By 2026, 3MDCP will be at a high level of maturity in technical, manufacturing, and integration readiness as well as material characterization. HEEET and 3MDCP for Uranus Entry: Several system studies have evaluated and baselined 3-D Woven TPS for Uranus entry, both HEEET as well as 3MDCP. If the aeroshell carrying the descent probe is 1.3m or less, then 3MDCP is a very capable and the most mass-efficient choice. If the aeroshell is bigger than 1.3m diameter, then HEEET can meet the mission need as it allows for an aeroshell of any diameter. HEEET and 3MDCP are capable of Saturn in-situ science missions prioritized in the New Frontiers-5 draft Announcement of Opportunity (AO) and if Saturn is the mission of choice, there is a pathway for sustaining the capability. Capability Sustainment: Given NASA’s current budgetary constraints, the postponement of the next New Frontiers AO to no earlier than 2026 and the unknown delay in starting the UOP flagship effort point to potential gap years for the HEEET and 3MDCP capabilities. The first step in capability sustainment is to understand the risks as they emerge, assess those risks, and develop plans to mitigate them. Keeping the science community, who are interested in UOP as well as the larger Giant Planet missions, informed of the emerging challenges requires continuous risk assessment/mitigation. Without these steps, atrophy is more likely within the industrial partners with which NASA has partnered. This presentation will provide more details as well as steps NASA can take to minimize the impact to the UOP mission.

Ethiraj Venkatapathy↗
NASA NTRS2004

Uncertainties in estimates of the risks of late effects from space radiation

Methods used to project risks in low-Earth orbit are of questionable merit for exploration missions because of the limited radiobiology data and knowledge of galactic cosmic ray (GCR) heavy ions, which causes estimates of the risk of late effects to be highly uncertain. Risk projections involve a product of many biological and physical factors, each of which has a differential range of uncertainty due to lack of data and knowledge. Using the linear-additivity model for radiation risks, we use Monte-Carlo sampling from subjective uncertainty distributions in each factor to obtain an estimate of the overall uncertainty in risk projections. The resulting methodology is applied to several human space exploration mission scenarios including a deep space outpost and Mars missions of duration of 360, 660, and 1000 days. The major results are the quantification of the uncertainties in current risk estimates, the identification of factors that dominate risk projection uncertainties, and the development of a method to quantify candidate approaches to reduce uncertainties or mitigate risks. The large uncertainties in GCR risk projections lead to probability distributions of risk that mask any potential risk reduction using the "optimization" of shielding materials or configurations. In contrast, the design of shielding optimization approaches for solar particle events and trapped protons can be made at this time and promising technologies can be shown to have merit using our approach. The methods used also make it possible to express risk management objectives in terms of quantitative metrics, e.g., the number of days in space without exceeding a given risk level within well-defined confidence limits. Published by Elsevier Ltd on behalf of COSPAR.

Non-NASA Center↗
NASA NTRS2002

Uncertainties in Estimates of the Risks of Late Effects from Space Radiation

The health risks faced by astronauts from space radiation include cancer, cataracts, hereditary effects, and non-cancer morbidity and mortality risks related to the diseases of the old age. Methods used to project risks in low-Earth orbit are of questionable merit for exploration missions because of the limited radiobiology data and knowledge of galactic cosmic ray (GCR) heavy ions, which causes estimates of the risk of late effects to be highly uncertain. Risk projections involve a product of many biological and physical factors, each of which has a differential range of uncertainty due to lack of data and knowledge. Within the linear-additivity model, we use Monte-Carlo sampling from subjective uncertainty distributions in each factor to obtain a Maximum Likelihood estimate of the overall uncertainty in risk projections. The resulting methodology is applied to several human space exploration mission scenarios including ISS, lunar station, deep space outpost, and Mar's missions of duration of 360, 660, and 1000 days. The major results are the quantification of the uncertainties in current risk estimates, the identification of factors that dominate risk projection uncertainties, and the development of a method to quantify candidate approaches to reduce uncertainties or mitigate risks. The large uncertainties in GCR risk projections lead to probability distributions of risk that mask any potential risk reduction using the "optimization" of shielding materials or configurations. In contrast, the design of shielding optimization approaches for solar particle events and trapped protons can be made at this time, and promising technologies can be shown to have merit using our approach. The methods used also make it possible to express risk management objectives in terms of quantitative objective's, i.e., the number of days in space without exceeding a given risk level within well defined confidence limits.

Cucinotta, F. A.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Composing Teams with TEAMSTaR Tool for Evaluating and Mitigating Space Team Risk

As NASA sets its sights on more Earth-independent missions, the mission to Mars as a prime example, a team’s composition becomes a critical issue for mitigating the risks of such endeavors. The purpose of this project is to develop and validate TEAMSTaR (Tool for Evaluating And Mitigating Space Team Risks), a team composition decision support system that can be used by mission stakeholders (e.g., mission schedulers, crew members) to predict how a hypothetical team’s social relationships are likely to evolve and influence crew performance over the course of a mission. TEAMSTaR will enable decision makers to evaluate composition scenarios for a set of teams, for single-member replacements, and/or for subsets of teams.

N S Contractor↗
DOE OSTI2021

Simple Acceptance Decisions and Acceptance Risk

Acceptance risk may be estimated using cumulative probability distribution functions applied to populations of measurands and test measurement values. “Simple acceptance” is a decision rule that sets the acceptance range of a test result equal to the tolerance range specification. While acceptance risk is comprised of both consumer risk and producer risk, this paper compares the effects of simple acceptance decision rules and guardbanding decision rules on consumer risk. Consumer risk is also known as the probability of false acceptance. The terms describe the risk of accepting test results as passing when the actual values exceed specification limits. False acceptance is only possible when the true value of a measurand is out of tolerance and the test result indicates that the measurand is within tolerance. Metrologists generally have some information about the test uncertainty regarding a specific acceptance test result. Along with a general lack of knowledge regarding the measurand population parameters, the complicated interplay between risk, dispersion, and central values generally prevents calibration laboratories from fully characterizing acceptance probabilities. Organizations that model the measurand populations can reduce consumer risk by avoiding certification of items whose measurand populations are not well centered. The models in this paper present a recurring trend: guardbanding reduces nonnegligible risks of false acceptance when compared to simple acceptance. However, guardbanding is not the most effective means of acceptance risk mitigation. Systematic characterization of measurand populations can provide the information a calibration laboratory needs to reliably control acceptance risk.

42 ENGINEERING↗