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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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NASA NTRS1982

The Satellite Situation Center

Considerations related to the early planning for the International Magnetospheric Study (IMS) took into account the desirability of an establishment of specific entities for generating and disseminating coordination information for both retrospective and predictive periods. The organizations established include the IMS/Satellite Situation Center (IMS/SSC) operated by NASA. The activities of the SSC are related to the preparation of reports on predicted and actually achieved satellite positions, the response to inquiries, the compilation of information on satellite experiments, and the issue of periodic status summaries. Attention is given to high-altitude satellite services, other correlative satellite services, non-IMS activities of the SSC, a summary of the SSC request activity, and post-IMS and future activities.

Teague, M. J.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Mapping National Forest Aboveground Biomass in Mexico by Integrating GEDI, Sentinel‐1 and Sentinel‐2 Data

Accurate mapping of forest aboveground biomass density (AGBD) is required to better understand the role of forests in the global carbon cycle and to support international policies for climate change mitigation and adaptation. Mexico is one of the countries having great potential for the United Nations Programme on Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (or UN-REDD program) and there is a growing demand for unbiased Monitoring Reporting Verification systems at a national level. As an effort under NASA’s Carbon Monitoring System (CMS) program, we developed a machine learning model using multi-stream remote sensing measurements as well as topographic data to create a high spatial resolution AGBD map (~100 m) over Mexico (circa 2020). The remote sensing data includes Global Ecosystem Dynamic Investigation (GEDI) lidar, Sentinel 1 Synthetic-Aperture Radar (SAR), and Sentinel-2 multispectral imagery (MSI). GEDI onboard the International Space Station provides unprecedented forest structure and AGBD sampling datasets for model training and validation practices. Our analysis indicates that the developed random forest model can capture 63 % of the spatial variation (RMSE = 33.7 Mg/ha) of AGBD of Mexican forests. We find that shortwave infrared bands of Sentinel-2 MSI and topographical variables from elevation data are the most important variables in the developed AGBD model. Our study highlights methodological opportunities in synergistic uses of multiple sensors for large-scale forest AGBD mapping and shows potential for retrospective analysis and operational monitoring of forest AGBD and its dynamics.

Taejin Park↗
DOE OSTI2021

Retrospective Analysis and Bayesian Model Averaging of CMIP6 Precipitation in the Nile River Basin

The Nile River basin is one of the global hotspots vulnerable to climate change impacts because of a fast-growing population and geopolitical tensions. Previous studies demonstrated that general circulation models (GCMs) frequently show disagreement in the sign of change in annual precipitation projections. Here, we first evaluate the performance of 20 GCMs from phase six of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) benchmarked against a high-spatial-resolution precipitation dataset dating back to 1983 from Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information Using Artificial Neural Networks–Climate Data Record (PERSIANN-CDR). Next, a Bayesian model averaging (BMA) approach is adopted to derive probability distributions of precipitation projections in the Nile basin. Retrospective analysis reveals that most GCMs exhibit considerable (up to 64% of mean annual precipitation) and spatially heterogenous bias in simulating annual precipitation. Moreover, it is shown that all GCMs underestimate interannual variability; thus, the ensemble range is underdispersive and is a poor indicator of uncertainty. The projected changes from the BMA model show that the value and sign of change vary considerably across the Nile basin. Specifically, it is found that projected changes in the two headwaters basins, namely, the Blue Nile and Upper White Nile, are 0.03% and -1.65%, respectively; both are statistically insignificant at α = 0.05. The uncertainty range estimated from the BMA model shows that the probability of a precipitation decrease is much higher in the Upper White Nile basin whereas projected change in the Blue Nile is highly uncertain both in magnitude and sign of change.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
NASA NTRS2007

Using High Frequency Passive Microwave, A-train, and TRMM Data to Evaluate Hydrometer Structure in the NASA GEOS-5 Data Assimilation System

Validating water vapor and prognostic condensate in global models remains a challenging research task. Model parameterizations are still subject to a large number of tunable parameters; furthermore, accurate and representative in situ observations are very sparse, and satellite observations historically have significant quantitative uncertainties. Progress on improving cloud / hydrometeor fields in models stands to benefit greatly from the growing inventory ofA-Train data sets. ill the present study we are using a variety of complementary satellite retrievals of hydrometeors to examine condensate produced by the emerging NASA Modem Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, MERRA, and its associated atmospheric general circulation model GEOS5. Cloud and precipitation are generated by both grid-scale prognostic equations and by the Relaxed Arakawa-Schubert (RAS) diagnostic convective parameterization. The high frequency channels (89 to 183.3 GHz) from AMSU-B and MRS on NOAA polar orbiting satellites are being used to evaluate the climatology and variability of precipitating ice from tropical convective anvils. Vertical hydrometeor structure from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and CloudSat radars are used to develop statistics on vertical hydrometeor structure in order to better interpret the extensive high frequency passive microwave climatology. Cloud liquid and ice water path data retrieved from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer, MODIS, are used to investigate relationships between upper level cloudiness and tropical deep convective anvils. Together these data are used to evaluate cloud / ice water path, gross aspects of vertical hydrometeor structure, and the relationship between cloud extent and surface precipitation that the MERRA reanalysis must capture.

Robertson, Franklin↗
NASA NTRS2022

File Specification for MERRA-2 Climate Statistics Products

The Modern Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2) contains a wealth of information that can be used for weather and climate studies. By combining the assimilation of observations with a frozen version of the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS), a global analysis is produced at an hourly temporal resolution spanning from January 1980 through present (Gelaro et al., 2017). It can be difficult to parse through a multidecadal dataset such as MERRA-2 to evaluate the interannual variability of weather that occurs on a daily timescale, let alone determine the occurrence of an extreme weather event. Furthermore, it was recognized that standard metrics were needed to evaluate climate change among climate models and international research efforts. As a result of these concerns, the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) developed a set of indices that represent the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events using a daily time series of 2-m air temperature (T2m) and precipitation (Alexander et al., 2016). These indices were used as a basis to comprise a list of fields that represent daily extreme temperature and precipitation events, heatwaves, multi-day precipitation, as well monthly percentile statistics from the MERRA-2 dataset. Also included in this data product is a climatological long term mean and standard deviation representing the interannual variability on a monthly timescale.

MERRA-2↗
DOE OSTI2023

Standardized perioperative management in acute abdominal surgery: Swedish SMASH controlled study

Abstract Background Acute high-risk abdominal surgery is common, as are the attendant risks of organ failure, need for intensive care, mortality, or long hospital stay. This study assessed the implementation of standardized management. Methods A prospective study of all adults undergoing emergency laparotomy over an interval of 42 months (2018–2021) was undertaken; outcomes were compared with those of a retrospective control group. A new standardized clinical protocol was activated for all patients including: prompt bedside physical assessment by the surgeon and anaesthetist, interprofessional communication regarding location of resuscitation, elimination of unnecessary factors that might delay surgery, improved operating theatre competence, regular epidural, enhanced recovery care, and frequent early warning scores. The primary endpoint was 30-day mortality. Secondary endpoints were duration of hospital stay, need for intensive care, and surgical complications. Results A total of 1344 patients were included, 663 in the control group and 681 in the intervention group. The use of antibiotics increased (81.4 versus 94.7 per cent), and the time from the decision to operate to the start of surgery was reduced (3.80 versus 3.22 h) with use of the new protocol. Fewer anastomoses were performed (22.5 versus 16.8 per cent). The 30-day mortality rate was 14.5 per cent in the historical control group and 10.7 per cent in the intervention group (P = 0.045). The mean duration of hospital (11.9 versus 10.2 days; P = 0.007) and ICU (5.40 versus 3.12 days; P = 0.007) stays was also reduced. The rate of serious surgical complications (grade IIIb–V) was lower (37.6 versus 27.3 per cent; P = <0.001). Conclusion Standardized management protocols improved outcomes after emergency laparotomy.

Timan, Terje J.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Observations of the Age of Air from the Northern Hemisphere Midlatitude Surface

Understanding and modeling the interhemispheric transport (IHT) of trace gases and aerosols is important for interpreting past (and projecting future) changes in atmospheric composition. One IHT measure -- the mean age since air was last at the Northern Hemisphere (NH) midlatitude surface – represents a fundamental property of tropospheric transport that can be estimated from measurements of sulfur hexafluoride (SF6). Here we use SF6 measurements obtained from the recent NASA Atmospheric Tomography Mission (ATom) to construct observational estimates of the mean age throughout the troposphere. We compare the ATom based ages, which span all four seasons during the period 2016-2018 over both the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans, with previous in situ-based estimates obtained from the HIAPER Pole‐to‐Pole Observations (HIPPO) project, which are available only for the Pacific. In order to interpret the observed variations in mean age and their relationship with the large-scale flow we use simulations of the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) general circulation model, constrained with meteorological fields derived from the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2), performed over the entire MERRA-2 period (including ATom). We confirm results from previous studies showing that the model ages are biased old compared to the observational estimates. However, we also show that this model bias is reduced in more recent years, which we interpret in terms of changes in the latitudinal distribution of SF6 emissions over the 2000s.

interhemispheric transport (IHT)↗
DOE OSTI2024

Tau Positron Emission Tomography for Predicting Dementia in Individuals With Mild Cognitive Impairment

An accurate prognosis is especially pertinent in mild cognitive impairment (MCI), when individuals experience considerable uncertainty about future progression. To evaluate the prognostic value of tau positron emission tomography (PET) to predict clinical progression from MCI to dementia. This was a multicenter cohort study with external validation and a mean (SD) follow-up of 2.0 (1.1) years. Data were collected from centers in South Korea, Sweden, the US, and Switzerland from June 2014 to January 2024. Participant data were retrospectively collected and inclusion criteria were a baseline clinical diagnosis of MCI; longitudinal clinical follow-up; a Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) score greater than 22; and available tau PET, amyloid-β (Aβ) PET, and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scan less than 1 year from diagnosis. A total of 448 eligible individuals with MCI were included (331 in the discovery cohort and 117 in the validation cohort). None of these participants were excluded over the course of the study. Exposures included Tau PET, Aβ PET, and MRI. Positive results on tau PET (temporal meta–region of interest), Aβ PET (global; expressed in the standardized metric Centiloids), and MRI (Alzheimer disease [AD] signature region) was assessed using quantitative thresholds and visual reads. Clinical progression from MCI to all-cause dementia (regardless of suspected etiology) or to AD dementia (AD as suspected etiology) served as the primary outcomes. The primary analyses were receiver operating characteristics. In the discovery cohort, the mean (SD) age was 70.9 (8.5) years, 191 (58%) were male, the mean (SD) MMSE score was 27.1 (1.9), and 110 individuals with MCI (33%) converted to dementia (71 to AD dementia). Only the model with tau PET predicted all-cause dementia (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [AUC], 0.75; 95% CI, 0.70-0.80) better than a base model including age, sex, education, and MMSE score (AUC, 0.71; 95% CI, 0.65-0.77; P = .02), while the models assessing the other neuroimaging markers did not improve prediction. In the validation cohort, tau PET replicated in predicting all-cause dementia. Compared to the base model (AUC, 0.75; 95% CI, 0.69-0.82), prediction of AD dementia in the discovery cohort was significantly improved by including tau PET (AUC, 0.84; 95% CI, 0.79-0.89; P < .001), tau PET visual read (AUC, 0.83; 95% CI, 0.78-0.88; P = .001), and Aβ PET Centiloids (AUC, 0.83; 95% CI, 0.78-0.88; P = .03). In the validation cohort, only the tau PET and the tau PET visual reads replicated in predicting AD dementia. In this study, tau-PET showed the best performance as a stand-alone marker to predict progression to dementia among individuals with MCI. This suggests that, for prognostic purposes in MCI, a tau PET scan may be the best currently available neuroimaging marker.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2025

Habitability and Human Factors Assessment (iSHORT, SHAQ, and SHU)

BACKGROUND As long-duration off-planet habitats become a reality, a consideration of habitability and human factors (HF) is crucial. The habitat is more than just a place to live and work. It is also the crew’s perception of the space, and the psychological impacts of size, layout, and usage over time; all of which can support or strain behavioral health and performance (BHP). A previous International Space Station (ISS) habitability study used the iSHORT (Space Habitability Observation Reporting Tool) to collect detailed data about habitability and human factors and inform NASA Standards. Of the previous iSHORT study, only one of the six ISS subjects had a duration of one year; all other ISS and ground analog subjects had shorter mission durations from one week to six months. It is necessary to collect new data with a focus on long-duration exploration missions of > 6 months and on planetary surface habitat design. New data is also needed to compare the iSHORT to other habitability measures. One measure, the SHAQ (Subjective Habitability and Acceptability Questionnaire), assesses the intersection of psychology and habitability. Another complementary measure, the Scale for Habitat Usability (SHU), is a brief subjective scale that captures how habitat design impacts perceived usability of the built environment in relation to task performance. OBJECTIVE Our study aims to (1) understand how individual well-being and team dynamics may relate to HF concerns over time, (2) capture how habitability and HF change over time, (3) compare the three habitability measures (iSHORT, SHAQ, SHU), (4) assess habitats to capture HF design concerns and related BHP impacts of a planetary habitat, and (5) inform future standards for HF design. METHOD Data are being collected on crews living and working in long-duration spaceflight analogs. Individual-level data collections are repeated at regular intervals throughout the missions on several habitat areas, activities, and key equipment (i.e., points of interest). These points of interest (POIs) include the kitchen/galley, crew quarters, and other work and living areas. Assessments include evaluations of privacy, comfort, convenience, control, efficiency, and social density through the lens of subsequent outcomes like sleep, individual performance, group activities performance, stress, mood, and social interactions. Pre- and post-mission evaluations will also allow comparison with homes, pre- and post-mission hotels, and a retrospective reflection of living and working in a long-duration analog. INITIAL DATA COLLECTIONS In this poster, we will describe the measures and data yield. Since the research protocol was designed, the study team has collected iSHORT Standalone four times, nine collections of SHAQ, and three collections of iSHORT with SHAQ. Data collection is ongoing. SUMMARY A novel assessment suite has been developed to further aid the comparison and complementary understanding of the habitability and human factors measures, which will allow for efficient deployment of these measures in analogs and/or spaceflight in near-term research as well as support well-being and performance through design.

J C W Miller↗
NASA NTRS2017

Evaluating a Priori Ozone Profile Information Used in TEMPO (Tropospheric Emissions: Monitoring of Pollution) Tropospheric Ozone Retrievals

A primary objective for TOLNet is the evaluation and validation of space-based tropospheric O3 retrievals from future systems such as the Tropospheric Emissions: Monitoring of Pollution (TEMPO) satellite. This study is designed to evaluate the tropopause-based O3 climatology (TB-Clim) dataset which will be used as the a priori profile information in TEMPO O3 retrievals. This study also evaluates model simulated O3 profiles, which could potentially serve as a priori O3 profile information in TEMPO retrievals, from near-real-time (NRT) data assimilation model products (NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS-5) Forward Processing (FP) and Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications version 2 (MERRA2)) and full chemical transport model (CTM), GEOS-Chem, simulations. The TB-Clim dataset and model products are evaluated with surface (0-2 km) and tropospheric (0-10 km) TOLNet observations to demonstrate the accuracy of the suggested a priori dataset and information which could potentially be used in TEMPO O3 algorithms. This study also presents the impact of individual a priori profile sources on the accuracy of theoretical TEMPO O3 retrievals in the troposphere and at the surface. Preliminary results indicate that while the TB-Clim climatological dataset can replicate seasonally-averaged tropospheric O3 profiles observed by TOLNet, model-simulated profiles from a full CTM (GEOS-Chem is used as a proxy for CTM O3 predictions) resulted in more accurate tropospheric and surface-level O3 retrievals from TEMPO when compared to hourly (diurnal cycle evaluation) and daily-averaged (daily variability evaluation) TOLNet observations. Furthermore, it was determined that when large daily-averaged surface O3 mixing ratios are observed (65 ppb), which are important for air quality purposes, TEMPO retrieval values at the surface display higher correlations and less bias when applying CTM a priori profile information compared to all other data products. The primary reason for this is that CTM predictions better capture the spatio-temporal variability of the vertical profiles of observed tropospheric O3 compared to the TB-Clim dataset and other NRT data assimilation models evaluated during this study.

Pollution↗
NASA NTRS1985

Optimal symmetric flight studies

Several topics in optimal symmetric flight of airbreathing vehicles are examined. In one study, an approximation scheme designed for onboard real-time energy management of climb-dash is developed and calculations for a high-performance aircraft presented. In another, a vehicle model intermediate in complexity between energy and point-mass models is explored and some quirks in optimal flight characteristics peculiar to the model uncovered. In yet another study, energy-modelling procedures are re-examined with a view to stretching the range of validity of zeroth-order approximation by special choice of state variables. In a final study, time-fuel tradeoffs in cruise-dash are examined for the consequences of nonconvexities appearing in the classical steady cruise-dash model. Two appendices provide retrospective looks at two early publications on energy modelling and related optimal control theory.

Weston, A. R.↗
NASA NTRS2011

The Lifetime Surveillance of Astronaut Health Newsletter

The June 2010 LSAH newsletter introduced the change from the Longitudinal Study of Astronaut Health research study to the new Lifetime Surveillance of Astronaut Health program (An Overview of the New Occupational Surveillance Program for the Astronaut Corps). Instead of performing research-focused retrospective analyses of astronaut medical data compared to a JSC civil servant control population, the new program is focused on prevention of disease and prospective identification and mitigation of health risks in each astronaut due to individual exposure history and the unique occupational exposures experienced by the astronaut corps. The new LSAH program has 5 primary goals: (1) Provide a comprehensive medical exam for each LSAH participant; (2) Conduct occupational surveillance; (3) Improve communication, data accessibility, integrity and storage; (4) Support operational and healthcare analyses; and (5) Support NASA research objectives. This article will focus primarily on the first goal, the comprehensive medical exam. Future newsletters will outline in detail the plans and processes for addressing the remaining program goals.

Lee, Lesley↗
DOE OSTI2024

Whole-genome demography of COVID-19 virus during its pandemic period and on “panvalent” vaccine design

With over 16 million submitted genomic sequences, the SARS-CoV-2 (SC2) virus, the cause of the most recent worldwide COVID-19 pandemic, has become the most sequenced genome of all known viruses, revealing, for example, a vast number of expanding viral lineages. Since the pandemic phase appears to be over, we performed a retrospective re-examination of the demographic grouping pattern and their genomic characteristics during the entire pandemic period up to the peak of the last pandemic wave. For our study, we extracted from the NCBI only unique viral sequences and converted each sequence data to a relational vector, indicating the presence/absence of each variational event compared to a “reference” sequence. Our study revealed several genomic features that are unexpected or different from those of previous studies. For example, approximately 44,000 variants with unique sequences emerged during the pandemic period; they group into only four major viral-genomic groups and each has a set of mostly unique highly-conserved variant-genotypes (HCVGs); and a small set from the first (“ancestral”) group was inherited by the three (“descendant”) groups, suggesting that HCVGs in the next group may be predictable from the current group(s). Such a concept may be potentially important in designing “panvalent” vaccines against the current and future waves of viral infections.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2004

Post Eruption Hazards at Mt. Pinatubo, Philippines

Our project focused on the investigation of the post-eruption hazards at Mt. Pinatubo (Philippines) using remote sensing data, and field observations of the 1991 eruption deposits. Through the use of multiple satellite images, field work, and the 1996/2000 PacRim data sets, we conducted studies of the co- and post-eruption hazards of the volcano due to erosion and re-deposition of the extensive pyroclastic flow deposits. A major part of this project was the assembly and analysis of a database of over 50 high resolution (1 - 50 m/pixel) images that will facilitate this study. We collected Ikonos, SPOT, SIR-C/X-SAR, Landsat, ERS, RADARSAT, and ASTER images of the area around Mt. Pinatubo. An example of the changes that could be seen in these data is shown. Our investigation focused on a retrospective analysis of the erosion, redeposition, and re-vegetation of the 1991 pyroclastic flow deposits of Mt. Pinatubo. The primary geologic goal of our work was the analysis of the spatial distribution and volume change of the sources and sinks of materials associated with mudflow ('lahar') events. This included the measurement of river valley gradients and cross-sections using TOPSAR digital elevation data, as we are participating in the PacRim 2000 deployment to the Philippines specifically so that we can collect a second set of TOPSAR data that can then be used to create a topographic difference image of the volcano. The main results from this multi-sensor study have been published as Torres et al.. A discussion of the methodology that we used to assemble an appropriate database was included in Mouginis-Mark and Domergue-Schmidt. As part of an educational outreach effort, we also helped the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS) in the Philippines to use NASA data to study Mt. Pinatubo and other Filipino volcanoes.

Mouginis-Mark, Peter J.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Validation of Atmosphere/Ionosphere Signals Associated with Major Earthquakes by Multi-Instrument Space-Borne and Ground Observations

The latest catastrophic earthquake in Japan (March 2011) has renewed interest in the important question of the existence of pre-earthquake anomalous signals related to strong earthquakes. Recent studies have shown that there were precursory atmospheric/ionospheric signals observed in space associated with major earthquakes. The critical question, still widely debated in the scientific community, is whether such ionospheric/atmospheric signals systematically precede large earthquakes. To address this problem we have started to investigate anomalous ionospheric / atmospheric signals occurring prior to large earthquakes. We are studying the Earth's atmospheric electromagnetic environment by developing a multisensor model for monitoring the signals related to active tectonic faulting and earthquake processes. The integrated satellite and terrestrial framework (ISTF) is our method for validation and is based on a joint analysis of several physical and environmental parameters (thermal infrared radiation, electron concentration in the ionosphere, lineament analysis, radon/ion activities, air temperature and seismicity) that were found to be associated with earthquakes. A physical link between these parameters and earthquake processes has been provided by the recent version of Lithosphere-Atmosphere-Ionosphere Coupling (LAIC) model. Our experimental measurements have supported the new theoretical estimates of LAIC hypothesis for an increase in the surface latent heat flux, integrated variability of outgoing long wave radiation (OLR) and anomalous variations of the total electron content (TEC) registered over the epicenters. Some of the major earthquakes are accompanied by an intensification of gas migration to the surface, thermodynamic and hydrodynamic processes of transformation of latent heat into thermal energy and with vertical transport of charged aerosols in the lower atmosphere. These processes lead to the generation of external electric currents in specific regions of the atmosphere and the modifications, by dc electric fields, in the ionosphere-atmosphere electric circuit. We retrospectively analyzed temporal and spatial variations of four different physical parameters (gas/radon counting rate, lineaments change, long-wave radiation transitions and ionospheric electron density/plasma variations) characterizing the state of the lithosphere/atmosphere coupling several days before the onset of the earthquakes. Validation processes consist in two phases: A. Case studies for seven recent major earthquakes: Japan (M9.0, 2011), China (M7.9, 2008), Italy (M6.3, 2009), Samoa (M7, 2009), Haiti (M7.0, 2010) and, Chile (M8.8, 2010) and B. A continuous retrospective analysis was preformed over two different regions with high seismicity- Taiwan and Japan for 2003-2009. Satellite, ground surface, and troposphere data were obtained from Terra/ASTER, Aqua/AIRS, POES and ionospheric variations from DEMETER and COSMIC-I data. Radon and GPS/TEC were obtaining from monitoring sites in Taiwan, Japan and Italy and from global ionosphere maps (GIM) respectively. Our analysis of ground and satellite data during the occurrence of 7 global earthquakes has shown the presence of anomalies in the atmosphere. Our results for Tohoku M9.0 earthquake show that on March 7th, 2011 (4 days before the main shock and 1 day before the M7.2 foreshock of March 8, 2011) a rapid increase of emitted infrared radiation was observed by the satellite data and an anomaly was developed near the epicenter. The GPS/TEC data indicate an increase and variation in electron density reaching a maximum value on March 8. From March 3 to 11 a large increase in electron concentration was recorded at all four Japanese ground-based ionosondes, which returned to normal after the main earthquake. Similar approach for analyzing atmospheric and ionospheric parameters has been applied for China (M7.9, 2008), Italy (M6.3, 2009), Samoa (M7, 2009), Haiti (M7.0, 2010) and Chile (M8.8, 2010) eahquakes. Results have revealed the presence of related variations of these parameters implying their connection with the earthquake process. The second phase (B) of this validation included 102 major earthquakes (M>5.9) in Taiwan and Japan. We have found anomalous behavior before all of these events with no false negatives. False alarm ratio for false positives is less then 10% and has been calculated for the same month of the earthquake occurrence for the entire period of analysis (2003-2009). The commonalities for detecting atmospheric/ionospheric anomalies are: i.) Regularly appearance over regions of maximum stress (i.e., along plate boundaries); ii.) Anomaly existence over land and sea; and iii) association with M>5.9 earthquakes not deeper than 100km. Due to their long duration over the same region these anomalies are not consistent with a meteorological origin. Our initial results from the ISTF validation of multi-instrument space-borne and ground observations show a systematic appearance of atmospheric anomalies near the epicentral area, one to seven (average) days prior to the largest earthquakes, and suggest that it could be explained by a coupling process between the observed physical parameters and the pre-earthquake preparation processes.

Ouzounov, Dimitar↗
NASA NTRS2019

Numerical Reanalyses as a Gateway to Arctic Synthesis

Reanalyses are regularly gridded, retrospective depictions of the physical earth system, which are produced through the correction of a short-term forecast to available observations. In the Arctic, reanalyses are particularly well suited to marshal the sparse observing network to provide a plausible, multivariate representation of conditions. Atmospheric reanalyses such as MERRA-2 (NASA Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, version 2) and ocean reanalyses such as SODA3 (Univ. Maryland Simple Ocean Data Assimilation version 3) are widely used in Arctic research for diagnostic studies of circulation, model evaluation, and as boundary conditions for a variety of process models. Here, we provide examples that illustrate the utility of reanalyses for providing information on the spatial and temporal scales of recent, rapid changes in the Arctic. Recent trends in Arctic surface temperatures, surface melt over Greenland and Arctic glaciers, and evolving freshwater conditions in the Arctic Ocean are examples where reanalyses can provide information that cannot easily be obtained via other means. These examples provide information on the scale, magnitude, and the uncertainty of recent Arctic change and provide a context for future scenarios. We further quantify uncertainties in key reanalyses variables and approaches for addressing these issues.

Arctic↗
NASA NTRS1983

Land cover change monitoring within the east central Louisiana study site: A case for large area surveys with LANDSAT multispectral scanner data

Results established for four digital procedures developed for characterizing the radiometric changes between multidate LANDSAT spectral data sets into meaningful measures of land cover/use dynamics are documented. Each technique's performance was contrasted against digitized land use change maps, which were produced from contemporaneous, retrospective aerophoto coverage, in a cell by cell comparison over a one half by one degree area in east central Louisiana as a standard for comparison. The four techniques identify from 10.5 to 13.0% loss in area of forestland in a five year period; however, they differ more by how accurately this amount of change is distributed, the need for ancillary ground truth, and amount of usable information that is extractable. All require some method of digitally co-registering the two data sets. All are capable of providing tabular statistics as well as map products. Two are capable of detecting changes and identifying their locations. The other two, in addition to this, provide information to qualify land cover conditions at each end of the study interval.

Burns, G. S.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Validation of wind resource and energy production simulations for small wind turbines in the United States

Abstract. Due to financial and temporal limitations, the small wind community relies upon simplified wind speed models and energy production simulation tools to assess site suitability and produce energy generation expectations. While efficient and user-friendly, these models and tools are subject to errors that have been insufficiently quantified at small wind turbine heights. This study leverages observations from meteorological towers and sodars across the United States to validate wind speed estimates from the Wind Integration National Dataset (WIND) Toolkit, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Reanalysis v5 (ERA5), and the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA-2), revealing average biases within ±0.5 m s−1 at small wind hub heights. Observations from small wind turbines across the United States provide references for validating energy production estimates from the System Advisor Model (SAM), Wind Report, MyWindTurbine.com, and Global Wind Atlas 3 (GWA3), which are seen to overestimate actual annual capacity factors by 2.5, 4.2, 11.5, and 7.3 percentage points, respectively. In addition to quantifying the error metrics, this paper identifies sources of model and tool discrepancies, noting that interannual fluctuation in the wind resource, wind speed class, and loss assumptions produces more variability in estimates than different horizontal and vertical interpolation techniques. The results of this study provide small wind installers and owners with information about these challenges to consider when making performance estimates and thus possible adjustments accordingly. Looking to the future, recognizing these error metrics and sources of discrepancies provides model and tool researchers and developers with opportunities for product improvement that could positively impact small wind customer confidence and the ability to finance small wind projects.

17 WIND ENERGY↗