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At least 253 records · Page 14
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Comparing Synoptic Pattern Evolution for Flash‐Flood‐Producing and Non‐Flash‐Flood‐Producing Mesoscale Convective Systems in the United States

Understanding how the short-term evolution of synoptic weather patterns influence Mesoscale Convective Systems (MCSs) is essential, as these systems are responsible for over half of central U.S. flash floods, leading to substantial socioeconomic and water resource management impacts. This study analyzes long-term MCS data, flash flood reports, and atmospheric reanalyses from 2007 to 2017 using a machine learning clustering algorithm to examine how the synoptic weather patterns evolve prior to MCS initiation. While the clusters reflect seasonal and regional differences in MCS occurrence, they do not consistently distinguish between MCSs that do and do not produce flash floods. Systems in the southern Great Plains are more flood-prone when a synoptic-scale forcing, located near the system, drives strong water vapor transport from the nearby moisture source. More generally under different synoptic weather patterns, a broader precipitating area is the most dominant factor governing MCS flash flood potential.

atmospheric dynamics↗
DOE OSTI2024

Anthropogenic aerosols mask increases in US rainfall by greenhouse gases

A comprehensive understanding of human-induced changes to rainfall is essential for water resource management and infrastructure design. However, at regional scales, existing detection and attribution studies are rarely able to conclusively identify human influence on precipitation. Here we show that anthropogenic aerosol and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are the primary drivers of precipitation change over the United States. GHG emissions increase mean and extreme precipitation from rain gauge measurements across all seasons, while the decadal-scale effect of global aerosol emissions decreases precipitation. Local aerosol emissions further offset GHG increases in the winter and spring but enhance rainfall during the summer and fall. Our results show that the conflicting literature on historical precipitation trends can be explained by offsetting aerosol and greenhouse gas signals. At the scale of the United States, individual climate models reproduce observed changes but cannot confidently determine whether a given anthropogenic agent has increased or decreased rainfall.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Fast Bayesian optimization of Needle-in-a-Haystack problems using zooming memory-based initialization (ZoMBI)

Abstract Needle-in-a-Haystack problems exist across a wide range of applications including rare disease prediction, ecological resource management, fraud detection, and material property optimization. A Needle-in-a-Haystack problem arises when there is an extreme imbalance of optimum conditions relative to the size of the dataset. However, current state-of-the-art optimization algorithms are not designed with the capabilities to find solutions to these challenging multidimensional Needle-in-a-Haystack problems, resulting in slow convergence or pigeonholing into a local minimum. In this paper, we present a Zooming Memory-Based Initialization algorithm, entitled ZoMBI, that builds on conventional Bayesian optimization principles to quickly and efficiently optimize Needle-in-a-Haystack problems in both less time and fewer experiments. The ZoMBI algorithm demonstrates compute time speed-ups of 400× compared to traditional Bayesian optimization as well as efficiently discovering optima in under 100 experiments that are up to 3× more highly optimized than those discovered by similar methods.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

CreelCat, a Catalog of United States Inland Creel and Angler Survey Data

The United States Inland Creel and Angler Survey Catalog (CreelCat) contains a national compilation of angler and creel survey data collected by natural resource management agencies across the United States (including Washington, D.C. and Puerto Rico). These surveys are used to help inform the management of recreational fisheries, by collecting information about anglers including what they are catching and harvesting, the amount of effort they expend, their angling preferences, and demographic information. As of May 1, 2023, CreelCat houses over 14,729 surveys from 33 states, Puerto Rico, and Washington, D.C., comprising 235 data fields across 8 tables. These tables contain 235,015 records of fish catch and harvest metrics, 27,250 angler preference metrics, 14,729 records of survey characteristics, 13,576 records of effort metrics, and 409 records of angler demographics. Though individual creel surveys are often deployed to meet local science and management objectives, creel data aggregated across jurisdictions has the potential to address larger scale research and management needs.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Multi-model Hydroclimate Projections for the Alabama-Coosa-Tallapoosa River Basin in the Southeastern United States

Abstract This study uses a high-resolution, process-based modeling framework to assess the impacts of changing climate on water resources for the Alabama-Coosa-Tallapoosa River Basin in the southeastern United States. A 33-member ensemble of hydrologic projections was generated using 3 distributed hydrologic models (Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System, Variable Infiltration Capacity, and Distributed Hydrology Soil Vegetation Model) of different complexity. These hydrologic models were driven by dynamically downscaled and bias-corrected future climate simulations from 11 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 global climate models under Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 emission scenario, with 40 years each in baseline (1966–2005) and future (2011–2050) periods. The hydroclimate response, in general, projects an increase in mean seasonal precipitation, runoff, and streamflow. The high and low flows are projected to increase and decrease, respectively, in general, suggesting increased likelihood of extreme rainfall events and intensification of the hydrologic cycle. The uncertainty associated with the ensemble hydroclimate response, analyzed through an analysis of variance technique, suggests that the choice of climate model is more critical than the choice of hydrologic model for the studied region. This study provides in-depth insights of hydroclimate response and associated uncertainties to support informed decisions by water resource managers.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Intensifying tropical cyclones in the Arabian Sea replenish depleting aquifers

Tropical cyclones intensified globally in recent decades, delivering extreme precipitation deeper inland. While much research has focused on the role of climate change in tropical cyclone intensification, less is known about their contribution to groundwater recharge, especially in arid regions where freshwater is scarce and aquifers are being depleted. Here we quantify cyclone-driven groundwater recharge across the Arabian Peninsula from 2002 to 2021 using satellite-based total water storage and hydrodynamic modeling. Findings show that cyclones contributed up to 60% of total precipitation in the southern Arabian Peninsula. Cyclone Mekunu (2018) alone delivered 30 km 3 of precipitation inland, resulting in a net groundwater recharge of 3.2 ± 1.2 km 3 in the Najd subbasin. These findings reveal that tropical cyclones play a crucial role in replenishing groundwater resources in arid regions. Our approach provides a framework for quantifying recharge in ungauged arid basins worldwide, offering valuable insights for climate-resilient water resource management.

Saleh, Hassan [Western Michigan Univ., Kalamazoo M↗
DOE OSTI2024

Migration to WebDAV in Belle II Experiment

The usage of WebDAV protocol has become more and more popular within the physics experiments using grid middleware in the last decade, and today it represents a valid alternative to the GridFTP currently supported at best-effort level after the retirement of Globus Toolkit. Belle II experiment established the adoption of WebDAV protocol as the main protocol for data access and third-party-copy transfers, without relying on Storage Resource Manager interface (SRM). The migration process, carried on with continuous and gradual steps, has required a large effort to guarantee a smooth transition maintaining the production infrastructure fully operational. In this contribution we show the transition process, the tool of support developed to monitor step by step the status of third-party-copy support with WebDAV protocol by storages of the collaboration tested in both case pull and push, the strategy adopted to configure DIRAC and the solutions put in place for the corner cases. Finally, we will present some statistics of utilization and we will analyse the achieved results.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Unraveling complex causal processes that affect sustainability requires more integration between empirical and modeling approaches

Scientists seek to understand the causal processes that generate sustainability problems and determine effective solutions. Yet, causal inquiry in nature–society systems is hampered by conceptual and methodological challenges that arise from nature–society interdependencies and the complex dynamics they create. Here, we demonstrate how sustainability scientists can address these challenges and make more robust causal claims through better integration between empirical analyses and process- or agent-based modeling. To illustrate how these different epistemological traditions can be integrated, we present four studies of air pollution regulation, natural resource management, and the spread of COVID-19. The studies show how integration can improve empirical estimates of causal effects, inform future research designs and data collection, enhance understanding of the complex dynamics that underlie observed temporal patterns, and elucidate causal mechanisms and the contexts in which they operate. These advances in causal understanding can help sustainability scientists develop better theories of phenomena where social and ecological processes are dynamically intertwined and prior causal knowledge and data are limited. The improved causal understanding also enhances governance by helping scientists and practitioners choose among potential interventions, decide when and how the timing of an intervention matters, and anticipate unexpected outcomes. Methodological integration, however, requires skills and efforts of all involved to learn how members of the respective other tradition think and analyze nature–society systems.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Human–Earth system interactions under climate change

This special issue, titled ‘Focus on human–Earth system interactions under climate change,’ compiles cutting-edge research that deepens our understanding of the complex feedback mechanisms between anthropogenic activities and Earth system processes in the context of a changing climate (figure 1). The featured articles employ a diverse array of methodologies—including field studies, remote sensing, modeling, and socio-ecological analyses—to explore these interconnections. A unifying theme across these contributions is the imperative to bridge disciplinary divides, integrating physical Earth sciences with social sciences to fully capture the spectrum of human-Earth system interactions. Key topics addressed the impacts of human activities on natural systems, encompassing land-use change and water resource management on biogeochemistry, climate dynamics, and feedback on the climate system and socioeconomics from local to global scales under a changing climate.

Li, Huidong [Vanderbilt Univ., Nashville, TN (Unit↗
DOE OSTI2021

Hyperbolic Reformulation Approach to Enable Efficient Simulation of Groundwater Flow and Reactive Transport

We apply Cattaneo's relaxation approach to the one-dimensional coupled Boussinesq groundwater flow and advection-diffusion-reaction equations, commonly used in engineering applications to simulate contaminant transport in the subsurface. The diffusion-type governing equations are reformulated as a hyperbolic system, augmented by an equation that can be interpreted as a momentum balance. The hyperbolization enables an efficient unified computation of the primary variable and its gradients, for example piezometric head and unit discharge in the Boussinesq equation. An augmented Roe scheme is used to solve the hyperbolic system. The hyperbolized system of equations is studied in a set of steady state and transient test cases with idealized geometry. These test cases confirm the equivalence of the hyperbolic system to its original formulation. The larger time step size of the hyperbolic equation is verified theoretically by means of a stability analysis and numerically in the test cases. Finally, a reach-scale application of flow and transport across a river meander is considered. This application case shows that the performance of the hyperbolic relaxation approach holds for more realistic groundwater flow and transport problems, relevant to water resources management.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Toward an AI-Powered Software Pipeline for Real-Time Tracking and Analysis of Wildfire and Smoke

Real-time tracking of wildfires and smoke is crucial for effective response, minimizing damage, protecting lives, and efficiently managing resources during fire emergencies. We develop a web-based AI-powered pipeline that detects wildfires in aerial video and estimates deployment-relevant behavior metrics, including cumulative burned area, burned-area growth rate, fire spread direction, and smoke dispersion. The system combines a YOLO-based detector with YCbCr-based fire segmentation, HSV-based smoke segmentation, Farneback optical flow, and centroid-based spatiotemporal tracking. Using ground sampling distance (GSD), pixel-level fire masks are converted to physical burned-area measurements by correlating fire pixel counts with camera altitude and tilt angle. We benchmark YOLO variants and non-YOLO baselines (GoogLeNet, CNN, DBN, Autoencoder, U-Net, and AlexNet) on the IEEE FLAME dataset and a newly created aerial frame dataset, Wildfire-DB. Cross-dataset evaluation uses a strict threshold-transfer protocol: decision thresholds are selected on FLAME validation and transferred unchanged to Wildfire-DB to quantify generalization under domain shift. YOLOv6 achieves the strongest cross-dataset frame-level fire detection on Wildfire-DB (ROC-AUC 0.8200, PR-AUC 0.8044, and transferred-threshold F1 0.7596). For tracking-oriented deployment requiring oriented localization, YOLO11-OBB provides the most reliable cross-dataset behavior among OBB-capable models while remaining computationally feasible. To analyze the feasibility of UAV deployment, we further measure inference efficiency using synchronized GPU and CPU power logs on a fixed workload of 1569 frames. YOLO-family models process the video in 5.73–12.47 seconds with net energy of 1247.28–1775.39 J, substantially lower latency and energy than heavier classification and reconstruction baselines. Overall, model optimality depends on operational objectives: YOLOv6 is best for cross-dataset detection robustness, whereas YOL...

Color segmentation↗
DOE OSTI2026

Bayesian Physics Informed Spatio-Temporal Network for Streamflow Data Imputation

Reliable reconstruction of incomplete streamflow records is critical for improving hydrological forecasting, flood preparedness, and water resource management. However, large observational gaps and uncertainties in governing physical parameters limit the accuracy of traditional statistical and machinelearning imputation frameworks. To address these challenges, we develop a Bayesian Physics-Informed Spatio-Temporal Network (BPI-STNet) that jointly captures spatial and temporal dependencies while enforcing hydrologic consistency through embedded physical constraints. The framework integrates a GraphSAGE-LSTM architecture to model spatial connectivity across gauges and temporal flow dynamics, coupled with a Bayesian update mechanism to estimate uncertain parameters in a simplified water-balance framework. Unlike conventional physics-informed networks that rely on sampling-based posterior estimation, BPI-STNet derives an analytic solution to the inverse problem, allowing closed-form Bayesian updates of uncertain parameters Λ={α,β,k} using Gaussian priors and likelihoods. Applied to daily observations from the Susquehanna River Basin (1980-2022), BPI-STNet achieves substantial improvements over a purely data-driven RGNN baseline, which reduced RMSE by 23 % and MAE by 9 %, and achieving an average NSE values up to 0.96. The results demonstrate that coupling Bayesian inference with physics-informed learning yields physically consistent, uncertainty-aware reconstructions that preserve the temporal persistence and statistical distribution of observed flows. The proposed framework establishes a generalizable paradigm for data-sparse hydrologic systems where both data fidelity and physical interpretability are essential.

Krishnan Kutty Ambika, Anukesh [ORNL] (ORCID:00000↗
DOE OSTI2021

RISE: Reducing I/O Contention in Staging-based Extreme-Scale In-situ Workflows

While in-situ workflow formulations have addressed some of the data-related challenges associated with extreme-scale scientific workflows, these workflows involve complex interactions and different modes of data exchange. In the context of increasing system complexity, such workflows present significant resource management challenges, requiring complex cost-performance tradeoffs. This paper presents RISE, an intelligent staging-based data management middleware, which builds on the DataSpaces framework and performs intelligent scheduling of data management operations to reduce I/O contention. In RISE, data are always written immediately to local buffers to reduce the effect of the transfer impact upon application performance. RISE identifies applications’ data access patterns and moves data towards data consumers only when the network is expected to be idle, reducing the impact of asynchronous background data movement upon critical data read/write requests. Here, we experimentally demonstrate that RISE can take advantage of staging nodes to offload data during writes without degrading application data movement performance.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

IRIS: A Portable Runtime System Exploiting Multiple Heterogeneous Programming Systems

Across embedded, mobile, enterprise, and HPC systems, computer architectures are becoming more heterogeneous and complex. This complexity is causing a crisis in programming systems and performance portability. Several programming systems are working to address these challenges, but the increasing architectural diversity is forcing software stacks and applications to specialize for each architecture. As we show, all of these approaches critically depend on their runtime system for discovery, execution, scheduling, and data orchestration. To address this challenge, we believe that a more agile and proactive runtime system is essential to increase performance portability and improve user productivity. In this regard, we have designed and implemented IRIS: a portable runtime system exploiting multiple heterogeneous programming systems. IRIS can discover available resources, manage multiple diverse programming systems (e.g., CUDA, Hexagon, HIP, Level Zero, OpenCL, OpenMP) simultaneously in the same execution, respect data dependencies, orchestrate data movement proactively, and provide for user-configurable scheduling. Our evaluation on three architectures, ranging from Qualcomm Snapdragon to a Summit supercomputer node, shows that IRIS improves portability across a wide range of diverse heterogeneous architectures with negligible overhead.

Kim, Jungwon↗
DOE OSTI2022

Identifying Hydrometeorological Factors Influencing Reservoir Releases Using Machine Learning Methods

Simulation of reservoir releases plays a critical role in social-economic functioning and our nation's security. How-ever, it is challenging to predict the reservoir release accurately because of many influential factors from natural environments and engineering controls such as the reservoir inflow and storage. Moreover, climate change and hydrological intensification causing the extreme precipitation and temperature make the accurate prediction of reservoir releases even more challenging. Machine learning (ML) methods have shown some successful applications in simulating reservoir releases. However, previous studies mainly used inflow and storage data as inputs and only considered their short-term influences (e.g, previous one or two days). In this work, we use long short-term memory (LSTM) networks for reservoir release prediction based on four input variables including inflow, storage, precipitation, and temperature and consider their long-term influences. We apply the LSTM model to 30 reservoirs in Upper Colorado River Basin, United States. We analyze the prediction performance using six statistical metrics. More importantly, we investigate the influence of the input hydrometeorological factors, as well as their temporal effects on reservoir release decisions. Results indicate that inflow and storage are the most influential factors but the inclusion of precipitation and temperature can further improve the prediction of release especially in low flows. Additionally, the inflow and storage have a relatively long-term effect on the release. These findings can help optimize the water resources management in the reservoirs.

Fan, Ming↗
DOE OSTI2025

Adaptive Graph Learning with Transformer for Multi-Reservoir Inflow Prediction

Reservoir inflow prediction is crucial for water resource management, yet existing approaches mainly focus on single-reservoir models that ignore spatial dependencies among interconnected reservoirs. We introduce AdaTrip as an adaptive, time-varying graph learning framework for multi-reservoir inflow forecasting. AdaTrip constructs dynamic graphs where reservoirs are nodes with directed edges reflecting hydrological connections, employing attention mechanisms to automatically identify crucial spatial and temporal dependencies. Evaluation on thirty reservoirs in the Upper Colorado River Basin demonstrates superiority over existing baselines, with improved performance for reservoirs with limited records through parameter sharing. Additionally, AdaTrip provides interpretable attention maps at edge and time-step levels, offering insights into hydrological controls to support operational decision-making. Our code is available at https://github.com/humphreyhuu/AdaTrip.

Hu, Pengfei [ORNL] (ORCID:0009000367130950)↗
DOE OSTI2020

A Data Exchange Interface for a Standards Based Data Integration Platform

The modern electrical grid is a complex and a data rich system, requiring several sub-systems to provide the capability and support needed to perform functions such as distributed energy resource management, outage management, and fault location and isolation, to name a few. There is a need to develop software solutions and platforms that provide an integrated infrastructure to allow interoperability between these subsystems, while leveraging the abundant data available from today’s grid. In this paper, we present the development and deployment of an application service to integrate GridAPPS-D which is an open source, standards-based software platform with SurvalentONE, a commonly used DNP3 based ADMS platform that allows operation, monitoring, analysis, restoration, and optimization of network operations. We present details of the integration architecture, including its implementation, and provide results from functional testing of the architecture on a 13 bus IEEE system. The results validate that the integration is successful and is able to provide a two-way exchange of communication and translation between different communication protocols.

Singh, Alka↗
DOE OSTI2021

Coordinated Inverter Control to Increase Dynamic PV Hosting Capacity: A Real-Time Optimal Power Flow Approach

High penetrations of distributed photovoltaics (PV) could cause adverse grid impacts, such as voltage violations. The recent development in inverter technologies provides the opportunity to develop control systems to realize effective PV governance and thus to improve dynamic PV hosting capacity for distribution grids. In this paper, a novel distributed energy resource management system (DERMS) solution is proposed by adopting the real-time optimal power flow (OPF) approach for coordinated control of the distributed PV inverters. The proposed approach eliminates the dependence on load knowledge via measurement feedback correction, and it can be implemented in real time. One challenge is that the technique is sensitive to the data availability and integrity of voltage measurements. Therefore, a decentralized DERMS approach is developed by leveraging the concepts of state estimation. The framework and the effectiveness of the solution approach are numerically demonstrated on a real distribution feeder in Southern California.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗