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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

2020 Standard Scenarios Report: A U.S. Electricity Sector Outlook

This report summarizes the results of 47 forward-looking 'standard scenarios' of the U.S. power sector simulated by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) using the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) and Distributed Generation (dGen) capacity expansion models. The annual Standard Scenarios, which are now in their sixth year, have been designed to capture a range of possible power system futures considering a variety of factors that impact power sector evolution.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2022

The Roles and Impacts of PV-Battery Hybrids in a Decarbonized U.S. Electricity Supply

In this paper, we explore the potential impacts of growing industry interest in hybrid systems comprising PV and battery technologies on the results and findings of the Solar Futures Study (DOE 2021). We employ similar scenario definitions in the same ReEDS capacity expansion model, but we perform two versions of each scenario: one in which PV and battery technologies must be deployed separately (No Hybrids), and one in which the model has the option of deploying them together as PVB hybrids (With Hybrids). By comparing the No Hybrids and With Hybrids versions of each scenario, we isolate the impacts of hybridization on the outcomes and findings of the Solar Futures Study. We find that PVB hybrid configurations capture a sizable share of PV deployment, and the highest-net-value PVB hybrid configuration depends strongly on policy conditions. A power sector decarbonization policy generally increases the value proposition of a more forward-looking PVB hybrid configuration that involves significant oversizing of the PV arrays, a larger battery (which facilitates greater recovery and utilization of otherwise clipped energy), and a higher capacity factor. The growing deployment of PVB hybrid configurations primarily displaces standalone PV capacity, such that total installed PV capacity is largely unaffected by the availability of PVB hybrid configurations. However, the higher capacity factors associated with PVB hybrid configurations drive a modest (1-2 percentage point) increase in PV's share of U.S. electricity supply in 2050. Finally, introducing the PVB hybrid configurations influences the future role and makeup of battery storage technologies, and it reduces the required transmission expansion, particularly under scenarios that involve a power sector decarbonization policy.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

2022 Standard Scenarios Report: A U.S. Electricity Sector Outlook

This report documents the eighth edition of the annual Standard Scenarios. It summarizes 70 forward-looking scenarios of the U.S. electricity sector that have been designed to capture a wide range of possible futures. In August 2022, the United States Congress passed the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), a law aimed at accelerating U.S. decarbonization, clean energy manufacturing, and deployment of new power and end-use technologies. This year’s scenarios include representations of the main electricity-sector provisions from IRA and the potential impact on electricity demand. The Standard Scenarios are simulated using the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) model, which projects utility-scale electricity sector evolution for the contiguous United States using a system-wide, least-cost approach subject to policy and operational constraints. A subset of the scenarios are simulated in the PLEXOS production cost model to obtain a broader suite of metrics at the hourly resolution, which are made available through the National Renewable Energy Laboratory’s (NREL’s) annual Cambium data sets. The scenarios can be viewed and downloaded from NREL’s Scenario Viewer. Annual results are available for the full suite of scenarios in the Standard Scenarios projects in the viewer, whereas the Cambium projects contain hourly data for a subset of scenarios. The Standard Scenarios includes a scenario called the Mid-case, which has central or median values for core inputs such as technology costs and fuel prices, moderately paced demand growth averaging 1.3% per year, and electricity sector policies as they existed in September 2022 (including IRA). The remaining 69 scenarios are created by varying inputs such as technology and fuel prices, resource availability, demand growth, whether nascent generation technologies are allowed, and by introducing national decarbonization constraints.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Enhanced Geothermal Shot Analysis for the Geothermal Technologies Office

In 2021, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) began the Energy Earthshots initiatives to accelerate breakthroughs of reliable clean energy solutions within the next 10 years. In 2022, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) was asked by the DOE Geothermal Technologies Office (GTO) to provide analysis for developing Energy Earthshot targets for Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS), human-made underground reservoirs that extract thermal energy from the earth for electricity generation and/or heating applications. The Enhanced Geothermal Shot analysis is based on the technology assumptions in the 2019 GTO report GeoVision: Harnessing the Heat Beneath Our Feet. For Earthshot, we updated some of the technology cost and performance assumptions based on recent technology advances and updated the EGS resource potential to include more detailed analysis. We used the updated EGS supply cost curves to forecast the amount of geothermal electricity generation that could be deployed in the US by 2050 using a capacity expansion model. The results were used to develop a cost target for EGS. On September 8th, 2022, the Enhanced Geothermal Shot was announced. Its target - reduce the cost of EGS by 90%, to $45 per megawatt hour by 2035. This paper summarizes the cost and resource assumptions used in the Enhanced Geothermal Shot. It describes the assumptions used in the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) capacity expansion model to forecast geothermal deployment and discusses the results.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Degradation Mode Identification by Photocarrier Lifetime Spectroscopy on Devices and Test Structures

In this presentation, I examine the basic concepts of the device physics that can be used to distinguish various degradation and recovery modes on a cell level. The known degradation modes (bulk LeTID and LID, UVID, etc.) are due to defects and impurities that cause the photocarrier recombination according to Shockley-Reed-Hall (SRH) statistics. The SRH recombination rate strongly depends on the balance of electron and hole capture rates into the defects, which in turn, are governed by their local concentrations. The strongest recombination takes place at approximately equal concentrations of electrons and holes, while at low injection conditions (when one type of carrier dominates) the SRH recombination is suppressed. For cell degradation modes that affect the passivated interface (UVID, H-induced TOPCon contact degradation) the defects are at the interface under low-injection conditions due to either high local doping or the adjacent built-in charge in the dielectric. This mode is characterized by changes in the "diode prefactor" J01 slope in the inverse lifetime-injection level curve. In contrast, bulk degradation (LeTID, LID) affects bulk lifetime, with J01 slope unchanged. Carrier lifetime - injection level plots therefore serve as clear indicators of different degradation modes and are shown by experimental examples.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

National Transmission Planning Study - Long-Term Modeling Results

The National Transmission Planning Study (NTP Study) analyzed the transformation needed to ensure the U.S. transmission system continues to reliably meet electricity demand as the power sector evolves. The study linked several long- and short-term power systems models to test numerous interregional and regional transmission buildout scenarios. The results included in this dataset are from the long-term capacity expansion modeling, completed with NREL's ReEDS model. This includes nearly 100 future transmission scenarios with a wide range of economic, reliability, and resilience conditions. The dataset includes all the results visualized in the Tableau Public site, as linked below.

Array↗
DOE OSTI2024

2024 Standard Scenarios: A U.S. Electricity Sector Outlook

This data corresponds to the 2024 Standard Scenarios report, which contains a suite of forward-looking scenarios of the possible evolution of the U.S. electricity sector through 2050. These files contain modeled projections of the future. Although we strive to capture relevant phenomena as comprehensively as possible, the models used to create this data are unavoidably imperfect, and the future is highly uncertain. Consequentially, this data should not be the sole basis for making decisions. In addition to drawing from multiple scenarios within this set, we encourage analysts to also draw on projections from other sources, to benefit from diverse analytical frameworks and perspectives when forming their conclusions about the future of the power sector. For further discussions about the limitations of the models underlying this data, see section 1.4 of the "ReEDS Documentation" linked below. For scenario descriptions, input assumptions, and metric definitions for the data in these files, see the "2024 Standard Scenarios Report" linked below.

2050↗
DOE OSTI2022

The Importance of Modeling Carbon Dioxide Transportation and Geologic Storage in Energy System Planning Tools

Energy system planning tools suggest that the cost and feasibility of climate-stabilizing energy transitions are sensitive to the cost of CO 2 capture and storage processes (CCS), but the representation of CO 2 transportation and geologic storage in these tools is often simple or non-existent. We develop the capability of producing dynamic-reservoir-simulation-based geologic CO 2 storage supply curves with the Sequestration of CO 2 Tool (SCO 2 T) and use it with the ReEDS electric sector planning model to investigate the effects of CO 2 transportation and geologic storage representation on energy system planning tool results. We use a locational case study of the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) region. Our results suggest that the cost of geologic CO 2 storage may be as low as $3/tCO 2 and that site-level assumptions may affect this cost by several dollars per tonne. At the grid level, the cost of geologic CO 2 storage has generally smaller effects compared to other assumptions (e.g., natural gas price), but small variations in this cost can change results (e.g., capacity deployment decisions) when policy renders CCS marginally competitive. The cost of CO 2 transportation generally affects the location of geologic CO 2 storage investment more than the quantity of CO 2 captured or the location of electricity generation investment. We conclude with a few recommendations for future energy system researchers when modeling CCS. For example, assuming a cost for geologic CO 2 storage (e.g., $5/tCO 2 ) may be less consequential compared to assuming free storage by excluding it from the model.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2024

DCMIP2016: the tropical cyclone test case

This paper describes and analyzes the Reed–Jablonowski (RJ) tropical cyclone (TC) test case used in the 2016 Dynamical Core Model Intercomparison Project (DCMIP2016). This intermediate-complexity test case analyzes the evolution of a weak vortex into a TC in an idealized tropical environment. Reference solutions from nine general circulation models (GCMs) with identical simplified physics parameterization packages that participated in DCMIP2016 are analyzed in this study at 50 km horizontal grid spacing, with five of these models also providing solutions at 25 km grid spacing. Evolution of minimum surface pressure (MSP) and maximum 1 km azimuthally averaged wind speed (MWS), the wind–pressure relationship, radial profiles of wind speed and surface pressure, and wind composites are presented for all participating GCMs at both horizontal grid spacings. While all TCs undergo a similar evolution process, some reach significantly higher intensities than others, ultimately impacting their horizontal and vertical structures. TCs simulated at 25 km grid spacings retain these differences but reach higher intensities and are more compact than their 50 km counterparts. These results indicate that dynamical core choice is an essential factor in GCM development, and future work should be conducted to explore how specific differences within the dynamical core affect TC behavior in GCMs.

Willson, Justin L.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Data for Hadjimichael et al. - Multi-actor, multi-impact scenario discovery

Naming convention for each file is S[scenario_id]_[realization_id].parquet All realizations are generated as per the accompanying paper: Hadjimichael, A., Reed, P.M., Quinn, J.D, Vernon, C.R., Thurber, T., Multi-actor, multi-impact scenario discovery of consequential narrative storylines for human-natural systems planning. Earth's Future (In Review) Each .parquet file contains the following columns: 'structure_id' : StateMod structure ID data corresponds to 'year': simulation year 'month': simulation month 'demand': water demand in acre-feet 'shortage': water shortage in acre-feet 'river_outflow': streamflow in diversion location in acre-feet 'control_location': other structure or reason for shortage

Hadjimichael, Antonia↗
DOE OSTI2024

MultiSector Dynamics: 2023 Inaugural Workshop Report

Preface The MultiSector Dynamics (MSD) Community of Practice (CoP) hosted an inaugural workshop on October 3-5, 2023 at the University of California, Davis, to bring together members of the MSD community of practice to advance understanding of the co-evolution of human and natural systems, and to build the next generation of tools that bridge sectors, scales, and systems to realize a more resilient and equitable future. The theme of the workshop was "Advancing Complex Adaptive Human-Earth Systems Science in a World of Interconnected Risks". This document outlines the motivation for the workshop, its goals and objectives, the application process, the agenda, overviews of the training sessions offered to the workshop participants and a summary of each breakout session. The MSD workshop report further discusses the feedback from workshop participants and presents some reflections and next steps. The MSD Workshop organizers thank the DOE Office of Science, Earth and Environmental System Modeling, MultiSector Dynamics program area for financial support of its activities through the Integrated Multisector Multiscale Modeling (IM3) project. For more information related to the broader DOE MultiSector Dynamics Program please see https://climatemodeling.science.energy.gov/program-area/multisector-dynamics. D.L.M. and C.M.B. acknowledge support from the Laboratory Directed Research and Development Program of Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), managed by UT-Battelle, LLC, for the US Department of Energy (DOE). Disclaimer This report was prepared as an account of work sponsored by an agency of the United States Government. Neither theUnited States Government nor any agency thereof, nor Battelle Memorial Institute, nor any of their employees, makes any warranty, express or implied, or assumes any legal liability or responsibility for the accuracy, complete- ness, or usefulness of any information, apparatus, product, or process disclosed, or represents that its use would not infringe privately owned rights. Reference herein to any specific commercial products, process, or service by trade name,trademark, manufacturer, or otherwise does not necessarily constitute or imply its endorsement, recommendation, or favoring by the United States Government or any agency thereof, or Battelle Memorial Institute. The views and opinions of authors expressed herein do not necessarily state or reflect those of the United States Government or any agency thereof. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory operated by Battelle for the United States Department of Energy Available from:Office of Scientific and Technical Information http://www.OSTI.gov multisectordynamics.org This work is made available under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution- NonCommercial 4.0 International (CC BY-NC 4.0) https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4 Suggested citation: Monier, E., Reed, P.M., Vernon, C.R., Hadjimichael, A., Brelsford, C.M., Burleyson, C.B., Dyreson, A.R., Fletcher, S.M., Giang, A., Gupta, R.S., Jackson, N.D., Jones, A.D., Lamontagne, J.R., McCollum, D.L., Morris, J.F., Moss, R.H., Peng, W., Saari, R.K., Srikrishnan, V., Szinai, J.K., Yoon, J. (2024) MultiSector Dynamics: 2023 Inaugural Workshop Report. MSD-LIVE Data Repository. doi:10.57931/2371710.

Monier, Erwan↗
DOE OSTI2024

Thermal Cooling Water Datasets for Electric Sector Modeling

This spreadsheet contains data inputs associated with representations of water (i.e., use, supply, costs) for thermo-electric based production. Values in this spreadsheet have been used to support multiple transmission-related planning studies, using models such as Regional Energy Deployment System Model (ReEDS). More information about associated studies can be found in Miara et al., 2019 (DOI: 10.1021/acs.est.9b03037); Cohen et al., 2022 (DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2022.119193); and Cohen et al., 2024 (DOI TBD). Within these transmission-related studies, the values present in this spreadsheet are assigned for simulation of both existing units as well as new capacity build-outs. A summary of worksheets' content as well as associated sources are captured below.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
NASA NTRS1974

Inventories of Delaware's coastal vegetation and land-use utilizing digital processing of ERTS-1 imagery

Digital analysis of ERTS-1 imagery was used in an attempt to map and inventory the significant ecological communities of Delaware's coastal zone. Eight vegetation and land use discrimination classes were selected: (1) phragmites communis (Giant Reed grass); (2) spartina alterniflora (Salt marsh cord grass); (3) spartina patens (Salt marsh hay); (4) shallow water and exposed mud; (5) deep water (2 meters); (6) forest; (7) agriculture; and (8) exposed sand and concrete. Canonical analysis showed that classification accuracy was quite good with spartina alterniflora, exposed sand-concrete, and forested land - all discriminated with between 94% and 100% accuracy. The shallow water-mud and deep water categories were classified with accuracies of 88% and 93% respectively. Phragmites communis showed a classification accuracy of 83% with all confusion occurring with spartina patens which may be due to use of mixed stands of these species as training sets. Discrimination of spartina patens was very poor (accuracy 52%).

Klemas, V.↗
NASA NTRS1978

A fast D.F.T. algorithm using complex integer transforms

Winograd (1976) has developed a new class of algorithms which depend heavily on the computation of a cyclic convolution for computing the conventional DFT (discrete Fourier transform); this new algorithm, for a few hundred transform points, requires substantially fewer multiplications than the conventional FFT algorithm. Reed and Truong have defined a special class of finite Fourier-like transforms over GF(q squared), where q = 2 to the p power minus 1 is a Mersenne prime for p = 2, 3, 5, 7, 13, 17, 19, 31, 61. In the present paper it is shown that Winograd's algorithm can be combined with the aforementioned Fourier-like transform to yield a new algorithm for computing the DFT. A fast method for accurately computing the DFT of a sequence of complex numbers of very long transform-lengths is thus obtained.

Reed, I. S.↗
NASA NTRS1978

On the fundamental structure of Galois switching functions

In connection with investigations conducted by Menger (1969), Benjauthrit and Reed (1976), and Pradhan (1978) two methods have been reported for deriving a unique Galois switching function from a given truth table description of the function. However, neither of the two methods appears satisfactory. One method often contains many redundant terms in its formulation, whereas the second method requires a great number of multiplications and additions. By some algebraic manipulations, an expanded formula is obtained which combines the best features of both methods. This formula makes it possible to compute the coefficients of the desired function more directly and probably with less effort. The conduction of calculations by means of the new formula is illustrated with the aid of examples.

Benjauthrit, B.↗
NASA NTRS1978

A simplified algorithm for correcting both errors and erasures of R-S codes

Using the finite field transform and continued fractions, a simplified algorithm for decoding Reed-Solomon (R-S) codes is developed to correct erasures caused by other codes as well as errors over the finite field GF (q(m), where q is a prime and m is an integer. Such an R-S decoder can be faster and simpler than a decoder that uses more conventional methods.

Reed, I. S.↗
NASA NTRS1981

Addendum to 'A new hybrid algorithm for computing a fast discrete Fourier transform'

The reported investigation represents a continuation of a study conducted by Reed and Truong (1979), who proposed a hybrid algorithm for computing the discrete Fourier transform (DFT). The proposed technique employs a Winograd-type algorithm in conjunction with the Mersenne prime-number theoretic transform to perform a DFT. The implementation of the technique involves a considerable number of additions. The new investigation shows an approach which can reduce the number of additions significantly. It is proposed to use Winograd's algorithm for computing the Mersenne prime-number theoretic transform in the transform portion of the hybrid algorithm.

Reed, I. S.↗