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DOE OSTI2022

Data and scripts associated with the manuscript "Using Mutual Information for Global Sensitivity Analysis on Watershed Modeling"

This package contains the data and scripts used in "Using Mutual Information for Global Sensitivity Analysis on Watershed Modeling" (Jiang et al., 2022). The ARW_SWAT.zip file contains the SWAT simulation and the sensitivity analysis result in the American River Watershed. The Portage_SWAT.zip file contains the SWAT simulation and the sensitivity analysis result in the Portage River Watershed. The src folder contains the source code of sensitivity analysis and plotting functions. The notebooks folder contains the Jupyter notebooks for performing sensitivity analysis and other post analyses.Global Sensitivity Analysis (GSA) often is applied to assess the sensitivity of model outputs to their inputs using ensemble simulations. However, increasing model complexity and the associated computational cost have limited the use of most GSA approaches for process-based watershed models. We propose to use Mutual Information (MI) as a computationally efficient GSA method for watershed modeling. Such MI computed from several hundred realizations usually can capture nonlinear relationships between inputs and outputs of interest. We perform MI-based watershed sensitivity analyses in studies of the Portage River Watershed in Ohio and the American River Watershed in Washington. In these studies, MI is used to evaluate the sensitivity of river discharges simulated by the Soil and Water Assessment Tool to no less than 20 parameters for each watershed. Our MI-based sensitivity analyses achieved convergence with about 300~500 realizations, a small fraction of the ensemble size (i.e., several thousand) required by the Sobol method. Nevertheless, MI yields similar sensitivity ranking compared to the Sobol method, especially for sensitive parameters. Our study thus sheds new light on the use of MI as an affordable GSA method for computationally intensive models such as the hyper-resolution, watershed hydrobiogeochemical models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Recent advancements of plant-based natural fiber–reinforced composites and their applications

Demands for reducing energy consumption and environmental impacts are the major driving factors for the development of natural fiber–reinforced composites (NFRCs) in many sectors. Compared with synthesized fiber, natural fiber provides several advantages in terms of biodegradability, light weight, low price, life-cycle superiority, and satisfactory mechanical properties. However, the inherent features of plant-based natural fibers have presented challenges to the development and application of NFRCs, such as variable fiber quality, limited mechanical properties, water absorption, low thermal stability, incompatibility with hydrophobic matrices, and propensity to agglomeration. Substantial research has recently been conducted to address these challenges for improved performance of NFRCs and their applications. This article reviews the recent advancements of plant-based NFRCs, focusing on strategies and breakthroughs in enhancing the NFRCs’ performance, including fiber modification, fiber hybridization, lignocellulosic fillers incorporation, conventional processing techniques, additive manufacturing (3D printing), and new fiber source exploration. In conclusion, the sustainability of plant-based NFRCs using life-cycle assessment and the burgeoning applications of NFRCs with emphasis on the automotive industry are also discussed.

3D reinforcement↗

DOE OSTI2024

Availability of Critical Benchmark Experiments for the Pebble Tanker Transportation Model for Nuclear Criticality Safety Validation of TRISO Pebbles

This study addresses the need for comprehensive investigations into TRi-structural ISOtropic (TRISO) fuel pebble transportation validation. In this work, an exploratory model, the pebble tanker(PT), was developed with the aim of facilitating the validation of nuclear criticality safety calculations in the context of industrial-scale transportation of TRISO fuel. The PT model was designed to investigate the availability and applicability of critical benchmark experiments crucial for assessing the transportation of these pebbles. This work incorporated sensitivity/uncertainty (S/U) similarity studies to quantify the applicability of critical benchmark experiments and to address nuclear data uncertainties in the context of TRISO transportation. Two container models were investigated: one for the Hermes-type pebble and one for the Pebble Bed Modular Reactor (PBMR)–type pebble. The models were simplified, considering fuel, containment, and either water or air, to enable a focus on the underlying physics of applications involving TRISO fuel pebbles using the PT model. A crucial aspect under consideration was the capacity of the transport package to hold pebbles while ensuring subcriticality in the flooded state. An approach in the criticality validation process involves assessing the similarity between systems through an integral index parameter evaluation. This involves calculating a correlation coefficient (referred to as c k ) based on shared nuclear data–induced uncertainty between a benchmark experiment and the application of the PT model. To facilitate this analysis, the SCALE tools, particularly the CSAS6-Shift, TSUNAMI-3D-Shift, and TSUNAMI-IP sequences, were employed for comprehensive studies in neutronics and S/U analysis. Our findings showed that there are sufficient critical experimental benchmarks to perform this validation of the PT model in the most reactive state, i.e. when the tanker is flooded. This paper provides valuable insights into validating a transport package for Generation IV TRISO fuel pebbles.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Numerical investigation of two-dimensional buoyancy-driven eddies in liquid metal magnetohydrodynamic flows in breeding blankets *

Abstract Lead–lithium flows are key features in the design of tokamak breeding blanket concepts such as the dual-coolant lead–lithium (DCLL). Since they flow under magnetic fields, they are affected by magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) effects. The neutron flux originating in the tokamak plasma heats the breeding blanket channels in a non-uniform manner, inducing buoyancy forces in the liquid metal. Buoyancy may become a source of quasi-two-dimensional (Q2D) turbulence, and the appearance of eddies may affect the transport of heat and tritium across the blanket. Blankets characterized by high-speed liquid metal flows (such as DCLL) will need ceramic insulating walls to reduce the MHD-related pressure drop in the channels. In our simulations, we have used the Q2D model proposed by Sommeria and Moreau (SM82) which is especially suitable for modeling electrically insulating channel flows. On top of that, we have modelled buoyancy forces in the momentum equation using the Oberbeck–Boussinesq approximation. In this work, we include a validation of the implemented Q2D model in buoyancy-driven cases and identify a thermohydraulic configuration that promotes the generation of eddies and the accumulation of tritium. We also show the results provided by our post-processing tool based on the bi-dimensional fast Fourier transform for eddy detection and characterization. We complete our investigation by performing an initial assessment of how eddies can accumulate tritium in the breeding blanket. We conclude by discussing the relevance of preventing accumulation of tritium within the blanket and suggest a possible solution.

Suarez, Daniel (ORCID:0000000251740100)↗

DOE OSTI2023

SolarAPP+ Performance Review (2022 Data)

The Solar Automated Permit Processing Plus (SolarAPP+) platform is an online portal to facilitate and expedite rooftop solar photovoltaic (PV) permitting processes. SolarAPP+ allows PV contractors to upload system specifications, have those specifications automatically reviewed for code compliance, and receive instant approval for code-compliant systems. SolarAPP+ also provides inspection checklists to verify installation practices and adherence to approved designs. SolarAPP+ is available to authorities having jurisdiction (AHJs) at no cost. This report is part of an ongoing series of reviews of SolarAPP+ performance. Consistent with previous performance reviews, we summarize SolarAPP+ adoption trends to date and compare various metrics for PV systems permitted through SolarAPP+ versus systems permitted through conventional AHJ permitting processes. As of the end of 2022, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) had contacted over 1,500 AHJs with significant solar permitting volume regarding SolarAPP+. Of those, 607 AHJs had at least expressed interest in the platform. 16 AHJs had begun piloting the platform and 15 of these had publicly launched the platform by the end of 2022. In 2022, 206 installers submitted 11,092 permits through the SolarAPP+ platform, including 708 permits for solar+storage systems. SolarAPP+ permits accounted for around 37% of all permits issued in participating AHJs. We compare permitting timelines through SolarAPP+ to traditional AHJ permitting processes to assess the platform's performance. Consistent with previous SolarAPP+ performance reviews, we find that permitting timelines are significantly shorter for SolarAPP+ projects. Based on median timelines, a typical SolarAPP+ project is permitted and inspected 8 business days sooner than traditional projects. We estimate that automatic SolarAPP+ permitting saved between 3,500 and 13,900 hours of AHJ staff time in 2022. Finally, we find evidence that SolarAPP+ may improve inspection outcomes, with SolarAPP+ projects failing inspections about 28% less frequently than traditional projects.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

SolarAPP+ Performance Review (2023 Data)

The Solar Automated Permit Processing Plus (SolarAPP+) platform is an online portal to facilitate and expedite rooftop solar photovoltaic (PV) and battery storage permitting processes. SolarAPP+ allows PV contractors to upload system specifications, have that information automatically reviewed for code compliance, and receive instant approval for code-compliant systems, reducing authority having jurisdiction (AHJ) staff time needed for review. SolarAPP+ also provides inspection checklists to verify installation practices and adherence to approved designs. SolarAPP+ is available to AHJs at no cost. This report is part of an ongoing series of reviews of SolarAPP+ performance. Consistent with previous performance reviews, we summarize SolarAPP+ adoption trends to date and compare various metrics for PV systems permitted through SolarAPP+ versus systems permitted through traditional AHJ permitting processes. As of the end of 2023, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) had contacted over 1,700 AHJs with significant solar permitting volume regarding SolarAPP+. Of those, 793 AHJs had expressed interest in the platform as of the end of 2023. 161 AHJs had begun piloting the platform and 97 of these had publicly launched the platform by the end of 2023. In 2023, 668 installers submitted 18,906 permits through the SolarAPP+ platform, including 4,834 permits submitted as part of a solar plus storage program. SolarAPP+ permits accounted for around 43% of all permits issued in participating AHJs. We compare permitting timelines through SolarAPP+ to traditional AHJ permitting processes to assess the platform's performance. Consistent with previous SolarAPP+ performance reviews, we find that permitting timelines are significantly shorter for SolarAPP+ projects. Based on median timelines, a typical SolarAPP+ project is permitted and inspected 14.5 business days sooner than traditional projects. We estimate that automatic SolarAPP+ permitting saved around 7,200 hours of AHJ staff time in 2023. Finally, we estimate that SolarAPP+ eliminated over 150,000 business days in permitting-related delays in 2023.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2026

SolarAPP+ Performance Review (2024 Data)

The Solar Automated Permit Processing Plus (SolarAPP+) platform is an online portal to facilitate and expedite rooftop solar photovoltaic (PV) and battery storage permitting processes. SolarAPP+ allows PV contractors to upload system specifications, have that information automatically reviewed for code compliance, and receive instant approval for code-compliant systems, reducing authority having jurisdiction (AHJ) staff time needed for review. SolarAPP+ also provides inspection checklists to verify installation practices and adherence to approved designs. This report is part of an ongoing series of reviews of SolarAPP+ performance. Consistent with previous performance reviews, we summarize SolarAPP+ adoption trends to date and compare various metrics for PV systems permitted through SolarAPP+ versus systems permitted through traditional AHJ permitting processes. As of the end of 2024, 799 AHJs had expressed interest in the platform, with 264 fully adopting (215) or piloting (49) the platform. In 2024, 861 installers submitted 37,393 permits through the SolarAPP+ platform, including 27,375 permits for PV+storage systems. SolarAPP+ permits accounted for around 43% of all permits issued in all participating AHJs, and more than 60% of all permits in several participating AHJs. We compare permitting timelines through SolarAPP+ to traditional AHJ permitting processes to assess the platform's performance. Consistent with previous SolarAPP+ performance reviews, we find that permitting timelines are significantly shorter for SolarAPP+ projects. Based on median timelines, a typical SolarAPP+ project is permitted and inspected 12 business days sooner than traditional projects. We estimate that automatic SolarAPP+ permitting saved around 18,400 hours of AHJ staff time in 2024. Finally, we estimate that SolarAPP+ eliminated over 100,000 business days in permitting-related delays in 2024.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2026

Tandem Photovoltaics Core Program Final Technical Report

The Tandem Photovoltaics Core Program was a multi-year initiative aimed at advancing hybrid tandem solar cell technologies to enhance solar module efficiency beyond the limits of single junction devices. This project focused on the development, testing, and scaling of prototype photovoltaic devices, with the goal of achieving commercial relevance and driving industry adoption. The work was divided into three tasks: 1) Comparative Analysis of Tandem Technologies: This task focused on quantifying energy yield under real-world conditions and assessing economic viability of tandems relative to silicon-based modules. The project's modeling framework incorporated performance data, cost of materials, and manufacturing process impacts to optimize tandem designs 2) Tandem Integration and Prototyping: In this task, we developed innovative tandem designs by combining metal halide perovskite (MHP) top cells and silicon (Si) bottom cells. The project focuses on both mechanical integration and direct deposition techniques to enable compatibility with commercially relevant Si technologies, such as passivated contact or PERC cells. 3) Scale-up and Reliability: This task addressed the challenges of large-area fabrication by developing scalable deposition methods and robust interconnection schemes for tandems. The project looked at different accelerated testing such as thermal cycling, damp heat exposure, and potential induced degradation, to ensure long-term stability of devices in field conditions. Tandem solar cells can greatly increase module efficiency beyond conventional single junction (SJ) devices, which are approaching their theoretical limit. There are many ways to fabricate a tandem cell or module in terms of materials used, configuration, and terminal connection. This SETO core project focused critical factors in enabling tandems to enter the market, including hardware integration, technoeconomic analysis (TEA), and energy yield analysis. We focused on MHP/Si hybrid tandem solar cells and modules as a model system for their versatility in module design comparisons, providing valuable insights for other tandem options. While champion cells with areas <1cm2 are regularly demonstrated by groups around the world, it is significantly more challenging to translate these advances into modules, and fewer institutions and companies are working at the module level. This project addressed questions about module fabrication, testing, and reliability that are hard to answer without actually fabricating prototypes. We also performed analysis and road-mapping activities to understand the potential for a wider variety of tandems, including all-perovskite tandems fabricated in collaboration with the Perovskite PV core program. Detailed technical results from this project are described for each task in Section 7.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Process intensification approach to enhancing heat and mass transfer during drying: Ultrasonic (US) assisted drying of paper and board

Drying of paper and board is conventionally achieved through alternating conduction (steam-heated cylinders) and pocket convection (heated air over the paper web surface). These conventional drying systems rely heavily on steam from fossil fuels, resulting in inefficiencies, high energy usage, and thermal losses due to surface-driven mechanisms. Here, to address these challenges, an experimental system, with in-situ drying characteristics measurements, was developed to investigate process intensification using ultrasonic-based dewatering—a volumetric, pressure-driven acoustic energy system—integrated with conventional drying. The objectives of this study are to assess the impact of ultrasonics (US) on dewatering; compare performances to conventional drying systems; identify improvements in drying rate and energy use as a function of moisture content; and gain potential insights on heat and mass transfer mechanisms during US-assisted drying. US performance was evaluated across frequencies, power levels, pulp types, and basis weights. Results show that improvements to ultrasonic applications in conjunction with convection were 30-43% in drying rate and 20-35% in drying time over continuous and intermittent applications. When combined with conduction and convection, ultrasonics yielded up to 20% improvement in both rate and time and up to 20% reduction in energy consumption. Observations support a hypothesis of extension of the constant rate period due to improved capillary flow at higher moisture content and enhancing vapor diffusion and boundary layer disruption at lower moisture contents during falling rate period. These findings will inform future modeling, simulation, design and optimization of advanced drying systems.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2022

Accelerating cosmological inference with Gaussian processes and neural networks – an application to LSST Y1 weak lensing and galaxy clustering

ABSTRACT Studying the impact of systematic effects, optimizing survey strategies, assessing tensions between different probes and exploring synergies of different data sets require a large number of simulated likelihood analyses, each of which cost thousands of CPU hours. In this paper, we present a method to accelerate cosmological inference using emulators based on Gaussian process regression and neural networks. We iteratively acquire training samples in regions of high posterior probability which enables accurate emulation of data vectors even in high dimensional parameter spaces. We showcase the performance of our emulator with a simulated 3×2 point analysis of LSST-Y1 with realistic theoretical and systematics modelling. We show that our emulator leads to high-fidelity posterior contours, with an order of magnitude speed-up. Most importantly, the trained emulator can be re-used for extremely fast impact and optimization studies. We demonstrate this feature by studying baryonic physics effects in LSST-Y1 3×2 point analyses where each one of our MCMC runs takes approximately 5 min. This technique enables future cosmological analyses to map out the science return as a function of analysis choices and survey strategy.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗

DOE OSTI2021

Techno-Economic Analysis and Life Cycle Assessment of Waste Lignin Fractionation and Valorization Using the ALPHA Process

Techno-Economic Analysis (TEA) and Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) were performed on the Aqueous Lignin Purification with Hot Agents (ALPHA) process, which is being investigated for the fractionation and purification of raw, bulk lignins recovered from cellulosic ethanol biorefineries or Kraft pulp mills. Here, ALPHA is proposed for the isolation of lignin from a corn stover-to-ethanol plant into purified low, medium, and high molecular weight (MW) fractions for producing polyurethane foam, activated carbon, and carbon fiber, respectively. A scenario analysis was conducted to determine the effect of ALPHA solvent choice on process economics and environmental performance. Solvent choice was found to have a significant impact on ALPHA, with a minimum selling price of 838/tonne with use of acetic acid vs 463/tonne with ethanol. Conversion of the lignin, processed with ethanol solvent, to high-value products yields 151 million/year in profit, which over 30 years results in a total net present value of 533 million. A life cycle assessment was conducted to determine the “gate-to-gate” greenhouse gas emissions and energy consumption of the lignin-based products compared to fossil-based equivalents. In conclusion, a value allocation scenario was conducted and it was determined that products generated using the ALPHA process with ethanol have similar or lower greenhouse gas emissions than the same products from fossil feedstocks.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Survey of Modeling and Simulation Techniques for Advanced Manufacturing Technologies Volume I – Predicting Initial Microstructures

This report summarizes the current state of modeling and simulation methods for predicting the initial structure and properties of material in components assembled using advanced manufacturing technologies (AMTs). The report is the first volume in a two-volume series. This first volume focuses on predicting initial microstructures of AM material. The second volume discusses predicting material properties given the initial microstructure. The focus is on technologies of particular relevance to the design and manufacture of nuclear reactor components. The purpose of the report is to help develop the technical knowledge base to support regulatory decisions that will be needed to assess nuclear components manufactured with AMTs as these components are installed at nuclear power plants (NPPs). The report develops a list of AMTs of particular interest to the NRC and summarizes the key microstructural features and corresponding processing parameters relevant to each technology. Further sections describe available physically-based and data-driven prediction methods and survey widely available software tools. The report concludes with a summary of gaps that may be of particular interest to the NRC when evaluating modeling and simulation methods for AMTs.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2024

RANGERS: Modeling Report on Integrity and Performance Assessment of Engineered Barrier Systems in a Salt Repository for HLW/SNF

The Engineered Barrier System (EBS) plays an important role in ensuring the long-term safety and containment of high-level waste (HLW) and spent nuclear fuel (SNF) in deep geological repositories in salt formation. As part of a multi-barrier system, the EBS works alongside the natural barrier, which is the salt formation itself and the technical barrier comprising the disposal casks. The primary function of the EBS is to maintain containment during a defined period until the backfill used in the repository made of crushed salt, develops its sealing capacity through compaction. Over the time, the backfill eventually compacts to a state of low porosity and permeability, acting as a long-term seal. However, until this process is complete, the EBS must retain its structural and functional integrity. Regulatory guidelines in Germany currently require the EBS to remain effective for up to next ice age, that is expected in 50,000 years. The significant hydro-geological and topographic changes expected during an ice age could make it impossible to accurately predict the hydro-chemical conditions within the repository system at that time. In response to these challenges, BGE TECHNOLOGY GmbH (BGE TEC) and Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) have jointly developed a comprehensive methodology for the design and safety assessment of engineered barrier systems within the scope of the RANGERS project. This methodology is tailored for repositories in salt formations. The developed methodology provides a structured approach for designing and assessing the performance of the EBS in salt-based repositories. It begins with defining a sealing concept based on the geological characteristics of the selected site and the overall repository design. The entire repository system, comprising the geological site, repository infrastructure, and EBS, is then subjected to a Features, Events, and Processes (FEP) analysis, focusing solely on those FEPs that affect the EBS. The derived FEPs help identify the loads and stresses acting on the EBS, which serve as the foundation for conducting an integrity assessment. This analysis helps predict the EBS’s evolution and performance over the regulatory time frame, feeding into integrated performance assessment simulations.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2023

Life Cycle Assessment of Innovative Carbon Dioxide Selective Membranes from Low Carbon Emission Sources: A Comparative Study

Carbon capture has been an important topic of the twenty-first century because of the elevating carbon dioxide (CO2) levels in the atmosphere. CO2 in the atmosphere is above 420 parts per million (ppm) as of 2022, 70 ppm higher than 50 years ago. Carbon capture research and development has mostly been centered around higher concentration flue gas streams. For example, flue gas streams from steel and cement industries have been largely ignored due to lower associated CO2 concentrations and higher capture and processing costs. Capture technologies such as solvent-based, adsorption-based, cryogenic distillation, and pressure-swing adsorption are under research, but many suffer from higher costs and life cycle impacts. Membrane-based capture processes are considered cost-effective and environmentally friendly alternatives. Over the past three decades, our research group at Idaho National Laboratory has led the development of several polyphosphazene polymer chemistries and has demonstrated their selectivity for CO2 over nitrogen (N2). Poly[bis((2-methoxyethoxy)ethoxy)phosphazene] (MEEP) has shown the highest selectivity. A comprehensive life cycle assessment (LCA) was performed to determine the life cycle feasibility of the MEEP polymer material compared to other CO2-selective membranes and separation processes. The MEEP-based membrane processes emit at least 42% less equivalent CO2 than Pebax-based membrane processes. Similarly, MEEP-based membrane processes produce 34–72% less CO2 than conventional separation processes. In all studied categories, MEEP-based membranes report lower emissions than Pebax-based membranes and conventional separation processes.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2025

A cradle-to-grave life-cycle-assessment of dry-processed Li-ion batteries for electric vehicles

Maxwell-type dry processing has emerged as a promising manufacturing technology for high-areal-loading Li-ion battery electrodes, offering a significant advantage by eliminating the use of the toxic and costly NMP solvent. This study developed a cradle-to-grave life-cycle-assessment model to evaluate the environmental impacts of this innovative technology, benchmarking the results against the conventional NMP-based technique for a configured 42 kWh NMC622-graphite battery pack. Furthermore, the findings reveal that the dry-processing method merits a 4.8% lower energy consumption and achieves environmental impacts up to 47.5% lower in 12 out of 13 categories, highlighting its environmental benefits compared with the NMP-based manufacturing processes.

Electrode↗

DOE OSTI2022

Uncertainty quantification in elastic constants of SiC f /SiC m tubular composites using global sensitivity analysis

Silicon carbide fiber and silicon carbide matrix (SiC f /SiC m ) tubes produced through the chemical vapor infiltration process have become a candidate cladding material in nuclear applications. The performance of this composite is influenced by many variables such as braiding angle, porosity, material properties, etc., which vary over a range of values due to the inherent fluctuations in the manufacturing process. In this study, the variability in elastic constants of SiC f /SiC m composite has been quantified through multiscale finite element (FE) simulations, variable screening, and high-fidelity surrogate modeling. The key variables dominantly affecting the elastic constants of SiC f /SiC m tubes were identified using global sensitivity analysis. A surrogate to the high-fidelity FE-based model was used in Monte Carlo simulations to generate a hundred thousand samples from which the uncertainty in elastic constants was assessed. It turned out that the coefficient of variation was less than 10%.

Materials Science↗

DOE OSTI2025

A Comparison of Pre‐Construction and Operational Wake Loss Estimates for Land‐Based Wind Plants

The overall bias between pre‐construction energy yield assessment (EYA) estimates of wind plant energy production and the achieved operational production is improving in the wind industry, but uncertainty remains high for individual wind plants. Wake effects within wind plants are one of the largest sources of energy loss considered in the EYA process, and previous work shows wake loss estimates to be a major source of disagreement among wind energy consultants who perform EYAs. To better understand the accuracy of wake loss predictions, we compare overall operational wake loss estimates based on supervisory control and data acquisition data to pre‐construction estimates provided by six wind energy consultants for five land‐based wind plants in North America. By augmenting existing approaches for quantifying operational wake losses, we estimate wake losses during the period of record for which operational data are available as well as the expected long‐term wake losses, based on historical reanalysis weather data, to which the EYA estimates are compared. To account for power variations at different turbine locations caused by terrain‐induced wind resource heterogeneity, we correct the operational wake loss estimates using predicted freestream wind speed variations from the Wind Systems Engineering Reynolds‐averaged Navier–Stokes (RANS) tool. We identify long‐term corrected operational wake losses between 1.9% and 6.4% for the five plants, with a mean loss of 4%. For the project deemed most acceptable for operational wake loss assessment, which is located in the simplest terrain and isolated from neighboring plants, the mean EYA wake loss estimate is within 0.7 percentage points of the operational value of 6.4%. For most of the remaining plants, results suggest that wake losses are generally overpredicted by 2.6–6.3 percentage points. However, operational wake losses may be underestimated for many of these projects because of spatial wind resource variations not captured by the RANS model, external wake effects that are unaccounted for in the estimation process, and wind plant blockage effects. To better understand factors that contribute to the observed wake losses, we investigate operational wake losses as a function of wind direction and wind speed. As expected, wake losses are generally concentrated near wind directions that are aligned with rows of closely spaced turbines and at below‐rated wind speeds; however, for some projects, the energy produced by the wind plant exceeds the estimated potential energy of the plant without wake interactions for certain wind directions and wind speeds, suggesting inaccurate assumptions in the wake loss estimation method for those plants. Lastly, we compare predicted and operational wake losses for individual wind turbines, finding that even when overall wake losses are predicted accurately, large uncertainty exists at the turbine level.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2020

Kinetic entropy-based measures of distribution function non-Maxwellianity: theory and simulations

We investigate kinetic entropy-based measures of the non-Maxwellianity of distribution functions in plasmas, i.e. entropy-based measures of the departure of a local distribution function from an associated Maxwellian distribution function with the same density, bulk flow and temperature as the local distribution. First, we consider a form previously employed by Kaufmann & Paterson (J. Geophys. Res., vol. 114, 2009, A00D04), assessing its properties and deriving equivalent forms. To provide a quantitative understanding of it, we derive analytical expressions for three common non-Maxwellian plasma distribution functions. We show that there are undesirable features of this non-Maxwellianity measure including that it can diverge in various physical limits and elucidate the reason for the divergence. We then introduce a new kinetic entropy-based non-Maxwellianity measure based on the velocity-space kinetic entropy density, which has a meaningful physical interpretation and does not diverge. We use collisionless particle-in-cell simulations of two-dimensional anti-parallel magnetic reconnection to assess the kinetic entropy-based non-Maxwellianity measures. We show that regions of non-zero non-Maxwellianity are linked to kinetic processes occurring during magnetic reconnection. We also show the simulated non-Maxwellianity agrees reasonably well with predictions for distributions resembling those calculated analytically. These results can be important for applications, as non-Maxwellianity can be used to identify regions of kinetic-scale physics or increased dissipation in plasmas.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗