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NASA NTRS1983

Statistical Analysis of a Debugging Model

Suppose that a system is undergoing a sequence of trials and design changes in an effort to find and eliminate design flaws in the system. Specifically, suppose that each trial is classified as an assignable cause failure (if the failure is due to one or more design flaws), an inherent failure (if the failure is not due to a design flaw), or a success. After each assignable cause failure, the design flaws that caused the failure are removed. In the case of statistically independent and identical design flaws, a probabilistic model is developed to describe this debugging process. Explicit expressions are obtained for the distributions of the important random variables and for the important measures of reliability. Statistical methods are developed for estimating the parameters of the model from accumulated test data.

Siegrist, K.↗

DOE OSTI2023

Stochastic modeling and statistical calibration with model error and scarce data

This paper introduces a procedure to assess the predictive accuracy of stochastic models subject to model error and sparse data. Model error is introduced as uncertainty on the coefficients of appropriate polynomial chaos expansions (PCE). The error associated with finite sample size allows us to conceive of these coefficients as statistics of the data that we describe as random variables whose influence on output quantities of interest is evaluated through the extended polynomial chaos expansion (EPCE). A Bayesian data assimilation scheme is introduced to update these expansions by considering the resulting nested chaos expansion as a hierarchical probabilistic model. Stochastic models of quantities of interest (QoI) are thus constructed and efficiently evaluated. Here, the Metropolis–Hastings Markov chain Monte Carlo procedure is used to sample the posterior. Two illustrative analytical and numerical problems are used to demonstrate the proposed approach.

Bayesian inference↗

DOE OSTI2022

Physics makes the difference: Bayesian optimization and active learning via augmented Gaussian process

Abstract Both experimental and computational methods for the exploration of structure, functionality, and properties of materials often necessitate the search across broad parameter spaces to discover optimal experimental conditions and regions of interest in the image space or parameter space of computational models. The direct grid search of the parameter space tends to be extremely time-consuming, leading to the development of strategies balancing exploration of unknown parameter spaces and exploitation towards required performance metrics. However, classical Bayesian optimization (BO) strategies based on the Gaussian process (GP) do not readily allow for the incorporation of the known physical behaviors or past knowledge. Here we explore a hybrid optimization/exploration algorithm created by augmenting the standard GP with a structured probabilistic model of the expected system’s behavior. This approach balances the flexibility of the non-parametric GP approach with a rigid structure of physical knowledge encoded into the parametric model. The fully Bayesian treatment of the latter allows additional control over the optimization via the selection of priors for the model parameters. The method is demonstrated for a noisy version of a standard univariate test function used to evaluate optimization algorithms and further extended to physical lattice models. This methodology is expected to be universally suitable for injecting prior knowledge in the form of physical models and past data in the BO framework.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2021

How New Mexico Leveraged a COVID-19 Case Forecasting Model to Preemptively Address the Healthcare Needs of the State: Quantitative Analysis

Prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, US hospitals relied on static projections of future trends for long-term planning and were only beginning to consider forecasting methods for short-term planning of staffing and other resources. With the overwhelming burden imposed by COVID-19 on the health care system, an emergent need exists to accurately forecast hospitalization needs within an actionable timeframe. Our goal was to leverage an existing COVID-19 case and death forecasting tool to generate the expected number of concurrent hospitalizations, occupied intensive care unit (ICU) beds, and in-use ventilators 1 day to 4 weeks in the future for New Mexico and each of its five health regions. We developed a probabilistic model that took as input the number of new COVID-19 cases for New Mexico from Los Alamos National Laboratory’s COVID-19 Forecasts Using Fast Evaluations and Estimation tool, and we used the model to estimate the number of new daily hospital admissions 4 weeks into the future based on current statewide hospitalization rates. The model estimated the number of new admissions that would require an ICU bed or use of a ventilator and then projected the individual lengths of hospital stays based on the resource need. By tracking the lengths of stay through time, we captured the projected simultaneous need for inpatient beds, ICU beds, and ventilators. We used a postprocessing method to adjust the forecasts based on the differences between prior forecasts and the subsequent observed data. Thus, we ensured that our forecasts could reflect a dynamically changing situation on the ground. Forecasts made between September 1 and December 9, 2020, showed variable accuracy across time, health care resource needs, and forecast horizon. Forecasts made in October, when new COVID-19 cases were steadily increasing, had an average accuracy error of 20.0%, while the error in forecasts made in September, a month with low COVID-19 activity, was 39.7%. Across health care use categories, state-level forecasts were more accurate than those at the regional level. Although the accuracy declined as the forecast was projected further into the future, the stated uncertainty of the prediction improved. Forecasts were within 5% of their stated uncertainty at the 50% and 90% prediction intervals at the 3- to 4-week forecast horizon for state-level inpatient and ICU needs. However, uncertainty intervals were too narrow for forecasts of state-level ventilator need and all regional health care resource needs. Real-time forecasting of the burden imposed by a spreading infectious disease is a crucial component of decision support during a public health emergency. Our proposed methodology demonstrated utility in providing near-term forecasts, particularly at the state level. This tool can aid other stakeholders as they face COVID-19 population impacts now and in the future.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Engineering and Application of a Thermostable MHETase for PET Depolymerization

Enzymatic hydrolysis of poly(ethylene terephthalate) (PET) releases mono(2-hydroxyethyl) terephthalate (MHET) as a major product, the accumulation of which can prolong reactor residence times and complicate downstream monomer separations. The use of a MHETase enzyme can enable MHET hydrolysis to the monomers, terephthalic acid and ethylene glycol, but industrial PETases typically operate at thermophilic temperatures and the well-known MHETase from Ideonella sakaiensis is a mesophilic enzyme, thus warranting the development of thermophilic MHETases. Here, we characterize thermostable MHET-active enzymes from a natural diversity screen by applying a hidden Markov model based on the previously reported, archaeal ferulic acid esterase, PET46. We identified enzymes with higher thermostability than PET46 and quantified their MHETase activity in reactions at 70 °C. The crystal structure of MHT077, the homologue with the highest MHETase activity and an apparent melting temperature (T m,app ) of 94.6 °C, informed site saturation mutagenesis in the active site and lid-domain interface. MHT077 exhibited a ∼100-fold slower unfolding rate at 65 °C than PET46, indicating substantially greater kinetic stability. In parallel, we applied evolution-informed design, a probabilistic model that leverages coevolutionary patterns in large multiple sequence alignments, to improve the activity and thermostability of five ferulic acid esterases. One design, EV-MHT043–5 was identified with a comparable thermostability (T m,app = 96.1 °C) and a 3-fold improvement in its MHETase activity relative to the wildtype enzyme, MHT043. Combination variants of beneficial mutations were screened and afforded a variant, MHT077 LFK , which reduced MHET accumulation in bioreactor experiments with postconsumer PET waste. Overall, this study expands the known MHET-hydrolyzing protein scaffolds available for enzymatic PET recycling.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

NASA NTRS1994

Data Analysis with Graphical Models: Software Tools

Probabilistic graphical models (directed and undirected Markov fields, and combined in chain graphs) are used widely in expert systems, image processing and other areas as a framework for representing and reasoning with probabilities. They come with corresponding algorithms for performing probabilistic inference. This paper discusses an extension to these models by Spiegelhalter and Gilks, plates, used to graphically model the notion of a sample. This offers a graphical specification language for representing data analysis problems. When combined with general methods for statistical inference, this also offers a unifying framework for prototyping and/or generating data analysis algorithms from graphical specifications. This paper outlines the framework and then presents some basic tools for the task: a graphical version of the Pitman-Koopman Theorem for the exponential family, problem decomposition, and the calculation of exact Bayes factors. Other tools already developed, such as automatic differentiation, Gibbs sampling, and use of the EM algorithm, make this a broad basis for the generation of data analysis software.

Buntine, Wray L.↗

DOE OSTI2022

A Review of Bayesian Networks for Spatial Data

We report Bayesian networks are a popular class of multivariate probabilistic models as they allow for the translation of prior beliefs about conditional dependencies between variables to be easily encoded into their model structure. Due to their widespread usage, they are often applied to spatial data for inferring properties of the systems under study and also generating predictions for how these systems may behave in the future. We review published research on methodologies for representing spatial data with Bayesian networks and also summarize the application areas for which Bayesian networks are employed in the modeling of spatial data. We find that a wide variety of perspectives are taken, including a GIS-centric focus on efficiently generating geospatial predictions, a statistical focus on rigorously constructing graphical models controlling for spatial correlation, as well as a range of problem-specific heuristics for mitigating the effects of spatial correlation and dependency arising in spatial data analysis. Special attention is also paid to potential future directions for integration of Bayesian networks with spatial processes.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

NASA NTRS1992

Probabilistic material degradation model for aerospace materials subjected to high temperature, mechanical and thermal fatigue, and creep

A probabilistic general material strength degradation model has been developed for structural components of aerospace propulsion systems subjected to diverse random effects. The model has been implemented in two FORTRAN programs, PROMISS (Probabilistic Material Strength Simulator) and PROMISC (Probabilistic Material Strength Calibrator). PROMISS calculates the random lifetime strength of an aerospace propulsion component due to as many as eighteen diverse random effects. Results are presented in the form of probability density functions and cumulative distribution functions of lifetime strength. PROMISC calibrates the model by calculating the values of empirical material constants.

Boyce, L.↗

DOE OSTI2020

A Hybrid AI/ML and Computational Mechanics Based Approach for Time-Series State and Fatigue Life Estimation of Nuclear Reactor Components

Environmental fatigue modeling is a complex problem due to multiple failure modes and their intermixing. The failure modes are function of various underlying causes in addition to the corrosive effect of reactor coolant environment. Some of the major causes are time-dependence of material associated with cyclic loading, load sequence effect associated with random/variable amplitude loading, effect of strain amplitude and rates, effect of varying temperature (along both temporal and spatial directions) and the effect of mean strain and stress. The nonlinear intermixing of failure modes associated with above mentioned causing parameters makes the environmental fatigue modeling is a challenging task. Because of this challenge, fatigue is traditionally being modeled based on experimental data. However, test based empirical approach often requires hundreds of fatigue tests to model the above-mentioned intermixing failure causes even for a single material system. The problem is further exaggerated for reactor component made from multi-material systems such as made from both carbon and stainless-steel base metals and their similar and dissimilar metal welds. With the difficulty of conducting hundreds of fatigue tests to capture the above-mentioned intermixing failure causes, fatigue modeling approaches often depends on empirical models based on limited available test data such as available through ASME code and NUREG 6909. However, these limited test-data-based models may not be enough to accurately predict the life of reactor components. Accurate prediction of life of reactor component would become a necessity, particularly when the license of the reactors to be extended for long-term-operation (LTO) that is for well beyond its original design life of 40 years. The requirement of extending the license of reactor under LTO requires hundreds of fatigue tests to be conducted to understand the mechanism associated with the above-mentioned interdependent failure causes. However, conducting large number of fatigue tests is not a feasibility due to the cost involved. To address this issues Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) with the sponsorship of DOE Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) program trying to develop a hybrid predictive modeling approach. This is based on limited experiment-data, Artificial-intelligence (AI) – Machine-Learning (ML) - Deep-Learning (DL) based techniques and Multiphysics-computational-mechanics based modeling tools. The hybrid approach not-only can improve the accuracy of the existing stress analysis and fatigue modeling approach but also can reduce the over-dependency on test-based approach. Towards this goal following are some of the major contributions based on ANL’s FY-20 environmental fatigue modeling activities: 1) A cyclic plasticity material model database for 82/182 dissimilar metal weld, which can be readily shared with US nuclear industry and regulatory agency on request. 2) A well validated analytical modeling methodology to perform cycle-by-cycle stress prediction under both constant amplitude fatigue loading and variable amplitude fatigue loading (with load-sequence effect). 3) An AI/ML/DL based methodology to predict unmeasurable cyclic strain based on other available sensor signals. This type of approach can be used for estimating strain in real reactor components from other sensor readings. 4) An AI/ML based approach to improve the US capability on environmental fatigue testing. This is by improving ANL’s existing environmental fatigue testing capacity to conduct ASME required strain-controlled tests (by controlling strain amplitudes and its rate), while not measuring the strain (due to the difficulty of placing an extensometer in a narrow autoclave in a PWR-water-test system). 5) A simulation and experiment based probabilistic modeling methodology for time-series fatigue state and life estimation of reactor metal such as dissimilar metal weld.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2026

CAHS: Context-Aware Homology Search

Protein homology search is foundational to bioinformatics: it supports annotation transfer, structure/function inference, and evolutionary analysis over rapidly expanding sequence repositories (e.g., UniProtKB). Profile hidden Markov models (pHMMs), as implemented in HMMER, remain the most widely trusted approach because they provide statistically calibrated E-values; however, their gap behavior is fixed once a profile is trained, despite biological evidence that insertion/deletion tolerance varies across flexible loops and intrinsically disordered regions. We present CAHS (Context-Aware Homology Search), a lightweight query-time adapter for pHMM search that incorporates learned and biologically motivated signals without changing HMMER's downstream search pipeline or its calibrated E-value reporting. Given a query sequence, CAHS computes per-residue representations from a protein language model and a disorder predictor, maps these to profile coordinates, and modulates only match-state transition rows (gap-open and gap-extension probabilities) while preserving Plan7 constraints. We comprehensively evaluate CAHS across six structurally diverse protein families and multi-domain architectures against a 570k-sequence target corpus. CAHS expands detection capability, retrieving thousands of additional remote homologs at relaxed thresholds by maintaining alignment quality through flexible regions. For multi-domain proteins, context-aware modulation resolves 94% of fragmented alignments. Crucially, CAHS preserves hit-set invariance at stringent operating points (E<10-10), demonstrating increased statistical confidence without inflating false positives. Furthermore, sharper statistical distinction between homologs and background noise during early filter stages yields up to a 3.87× acceleration in end-to-end wall-clock time on high-performance computing clusters. Overall, CAHS illustrates a practical AI-for-science design pattern: augmenting a trusted probabilistic model with query-specific learned signals to improve interpretable, reproducible inference in data-rich biology.

Bhattaram, Swethasree [Georgia Institute of Techno↗

DOE OSTI2025

Enhancing Unknown Waveform Detection by Learning Intra and Inter-domain Dependencies with Advanced Attention Fusion Mechanisms

Detection of unknown waveforms in mission-critical communications is a crucial area of interest for the Department of Energy (DoE). Traditional methods and recent deep learning-based approaches often assume that the training set includes all possible classes, which is impractical for detecting new waveforms. This limitation gives rise to the problem of open-set recognition (OSR), which involves correctly identifying known classes while detecting and rejecting unknown or unseen classes. To address this limitation, we propose a novel dual-domain complex-valued neural architecture that jointly processes time-domain and frequency-domain signal representations using transformer mechanisms. A transformer model is a deep learning architecture that uses self-attention mechanisms to process and learn relationships in sequential data. Our model employs a cosine similarity loss to extract domain-specific features and incorporates a transformer architecture in the latent space to weigh the importance of different features from the time and frequency domains. The transformer layer includes stacked self-attention and cross-attention modules to learn intra-domain and inter-domain dependencies, creating a more holistic signal representation. An attention-based fusion module intelligently combines the time and frequency-domain features using multi-head attention, enabling the network to learn the optimal feature for each domain in each input signal. Quantitative results demonstrate the impact of these architectural choices on overall performance, showing significant improvement after incorporating self and cross-attention modules and using complex attention fusion over simple weighted fusion. Our ongoing work will focus on addressing the limitations of threshold-based OSR methods by developing a novel generative framework that integrates a conditional diffusion probabilistic model (DPM). DPM is a generative framework that learns to synthesize complex data by reversing a gradual noising process using a neural network trained to denoise step-by-step. Our goal is to leverage the inherent strengths of DPMs for identifying unknown signals more robustly. One primary advantage of using a DPM is its ability to provide a more reliable anomaly score based on the model's reconstruction error, rather than relying solely on classifier confidence. Additionally, the iterative denoising process of DPMs makes this approach naturally resilient to low Signal-to-Noise Ratio (SNR) conditions, where traditional methods often fail. By implementing this generative framework, we aim to enhance the model's capability to accurately detect unknown waveforms and maintain performance in challenging environments.

99 - GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

NASA NTRS2009

Lunar Exploration Architecture Level Key Drivers and Sensitivities

Strategic level analysis of the integrated behavior of lunar transportation and lunar surface systems architecture options is performed to assess the benefit, viability, affordability, and robustness of system design choices. This analysis employs both deterministic and probabilistic modeling techniques so that the extent of potential future uncertainties associated with each option are properly characterized. The results of these analyses are summarized in a predefined set of high-level Figures of Merit (FOMs) so as to provide senior NASA Constellation Program (CxP) and Exploration Systems Mission Directorate (ESMD) management with pertinent information to better inform strategic level decision making. The strategic level exploration architecture model is designed to perform analysis at as high a level as possible but still capture those details that have major impacts on system performance. The strategic analysis methodology focuses on integrated performance, affordability, and risk analysis, and captures the linkages and feedbacks between these three areas. Each of these results leads into the determination of the high-level FOMs. This strategic level analysis methodology has been previously applied to Space Shuttle and International Space Station assessments and is now being applied to the development of the Constellation Program point-of-departure lunar architecture. This paper provides an overview of the strategic analysis methodology and the lunar exploration architecture analyses to date. In studying these analysis results, the strategic analysis team has identified and characterized key drivers affecting the integrated architecture behavior. These key drivers include inclusion of a cargo lander, mission rate, mission location, fixed-versus- variable costs/return on investment, and the requirement for probabilistic analysis. Results of sensitivity analysis performed on lunar exploration architecture scenarios are also presented.

Goodliff, Kandyce↗

DOE OSTI2024

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment for Azerbaijan

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessments (PSHA) underpin the determination of seismic loads in most contemporary seismic provisions of building codes around the world. Modern building codes are migrating towards using the entire uniform hazard spectrum at a range of vibration periods (typically up to 4 s or 10 s) rather than a single peak value such as peak ground acceleration (PGA), thus requiring a larger range of PSHA outputs. The hazard maps in the current version of the building code of Azerbaijan (2011) are in terms of intensity and peak ground acceleration. Recognizing the need for an up-to-date seismic hazard assessment in the country, Seismic Cooperation Program (SCP) under the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) undertook, in coordination with the Republican Seismic Survey Center of the Azerbaijan National Academy of Sciences and the Azerbaijan Scientific Research Institute of Construction and Architecture, a PSHA study that reflects new seismic data recorded locally and recent research conducted nationally and regionally since the last update to the building code. The PSHA framework for this project was designed to help develop a new earthquake catalogue, to incorporate a novel characterization of ground motions that specifically reflects the attenuation characteristics in the eastern Caucasus, and to generate hazard information in a form that is useful for an update of the current building code or the development of a new building code for Azerbaijan. The project also aimed to provide training and support for the local seismologists and engineers related to the seismic hazard models, probabilistic seismic hazard results and their use towards changes in the building code.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Enabling probabilistic learning on manifolds through double diffusion maps

Here, we present a generative learning framework for probabilistic sampling that extends Probabilistic Learning on Manifolds (PLoM), which is designed to generate statistically consistent realizations of a random vector in a finite-dimensional Euclidean space, informed by a (representative) set of observations. In its original form, PLoM constructs a reduced-order probabilistic model by combining three main components: (a) kernel density estimation to approximate the underlying probability measure, (b) Diffusion Maps to characterize the manifold of the data, and (c) a reduced-order Itô Stochastic Differential Equation (ISDE) to sample from the learned distribution. However, its sampling dynamics are posed in the ambient space and the retained number of reduced coordinates is chosen by projection-reconstruction error. In practice, this often (i) requires more coordinates than the data’s intrinsic dimension to achieve stable sampling and (ii) lacks a smooth, basis-independent lifting back to the data domain; moreover, standard Diffusion Maps emphasize harmonic eigenfunctions and can miss non-harmonic latent structure. We address these limitations by decoupling geometry learning from sampling: a first Diffusion Maps pass identifies non-harmonic coordinates on which we formulate a full-order ISDE directly in the latent space, while Double Diffusion Maps captures multiscale geometric features and Geometric Harmonics (GH) learns a smooth lifting map to the ambient variables that is independent of the particular diffusion basis. This hybrid design preserves the system’s dynamical richness with a compact geometric representation and enables principled out-of-sample inference. The effectiveness and robustness of the proposed method are illustrated through two numerical studies: one based on data generated from two-dimensional Hermite polynomial functions and another based on high-fidelity simulations of a detonation wave in a reactive flow.

Double diffusion maps↗

DOE OSTI2020

Zero-Valent Iron Permeable Reactive Barrier to Remediate Volatile Organic Compounds in Groundwater - 20209

The US DOE-SRS, the US EPA, and the South Carolina Department of Health and Environmental Control determined it was appropriate to perform a non-time critical removal action at the P-Area Groundwater Operable Unit at the SRS to reduce the mass and downgradient transport of trichloroethylene in the P-Area groundwater plume. Contaminated groundwater discharges to a nearby stream, Steel Creek, within the SRS boundaries, resulting in trichloroethylene concentrations above the maximum contaminant level. Impact to surface water is limited in areal extent and supported by recently collected characterization data. The P-Area Groundwater Operable Unit encompasses the groundwater beneath an industrial area within SRS, P Area, where the P-Reactor once operated. The boundaries of the P-Area Groundwater Operable Unit extend northwest to Steel Creek, northeast toward PAR Pond, and southeast to Meyers Branch. Groundwater in the Upper Three Runs Aquifer of the P-Area Groundwater Operable Unit has been impacted by reactor and facility operations between 1954 and 1991, including tritium and volatile organic compounds. The P-Area surface units contributing to groundwater contamination were remediated as part of the P-Area Operable Unit in 2011. The P-Reactor closure is one of the first of its kind in the DOE Complex and is one of only a few full-sized production reactors in the US to undergo completion of final closure activities. The nature and extent of groundwater contamination was determined using a variety of investigative approaches such as groundwater monitoring wells, direct-push technology, and surface water samples. Groundwater contamination associated with trichloroethylene is primarily exhibited in a narrow plume that extends from the source area at P-Reactor and west to Steel Creek. Maximum contaminant level exceedances in groundwater occur over an area of ∼6.9 hectares for trichloroethylene with concentrations as high as 7.7 milligrams per liter. To the west of the P-Area facility area, the trichloroethylene groundwater plume is controlled by a buried geologic feature, assumed to be an old stream bed, that further narrows the groundwater plume in what has been designated as the 'neck area.' This narrowing of the groundwater plume provides an ideal location for a treatment barrier. The non-time critical removal action alternative chosen is to install a zero-valent iron permeable reactive barrier within the neck area of the trichloroethylene groundwater plume, perpendicular to groundwater flow direction. This technology will provide a treatment barrier that will reduce trichloroethylene groundwater concentrations by 90% and has an anticipated useful life of at least 25 years. A pre-design investigation was performed in the neck area to confirm site lithology, hydrogeology, geochemistry, and extent of trichloroethylene contamination prior to a final design. A treatability study, conducted as part of the pre-design investigation, indicated that the subsurface and groundwater in the PArea Groundwater Operable Unit is compatible with the zero-valent iron and will not lead to excessive buildup from mineralization/precipitation or biofouling. Probabilistic modeling was conducted using field and laboratory data to determine the expected performance of the zero-valent iron permeable reactive barrier. The model simulations indicated that a 3.81-centimeter thick barrier would provide greater than 90% reduction of trichloroethylene groundwater concentration. The final design of the zero-valent iron permeable reactive barrier is a barrier that will extend 80.5 linear meters in a 'zigzag' orientation to best transect the trichloroethylene plume and account for varying groundwater flow. The barrier will be installed from 13.7 meters below ground surface to 41.1 meters below ground surface for 65.8 linear meters and from 13.7 meters below ground surface to 36.6 meters below ground surface for 14.6 linear meters, the base of which is 'keyed' into a low permeability zone. The barrier is designed to a thickness of 10.2 centimeters, which was determined to reduce the trichloroethylene groundwater concentrations by greater than 90% with a safety factor of 2.67. A total of approximately 689 metric tons of zero-valent iron will be injected through 22 injection wells spaced 3.66 meters apart, using guar to suspend the zero-valent iron. Zero-valent iron permeable reactive barrier construction will be monitored through 23 installed resistivity receivers offset 7.32 meters from the zerovalent iron permeable reactive barrier. The zero-valent iron will be energized with a low-voltage 100 Hertz signal during injection and will be monitored using the resistivity receivers to ensure complete coalescence of the zero-valent iron permeable reactive barrier. The zero-valent iron was sized to have a hydraulic conductivity greater than the natural subsurface, thus promoting groundwater flow through the barrier. As contaminated groundwater contacts the zero-valent iron, volatile organic compounds, including trichloroethylene, are immediately degraded to harmless compounds such as ethylene. The performance of the zero-valent iron permeable reactive barrier will be monitored using three upgradient monitoring well clusters, six downgradient monitoring well clusters, and four in-wall monitoring wells. The in-wall monitoring wells will indicate immediate reduction of trichloroethylene mass in the groundwater and allow analyses of the zero-valent iron permeable reactive barrier health. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2022

Hypothesis Learning in Automated Experiment: Application to Combinatorial Materials Libraries

Machine learning is rapidly becoming an integral part of experimental physical discovery via automated and high-throughput synthesis, and active experiments in scattering and electron/probe microscopy. This, in turn, necessitates the development of active learning methods capable of exploring relevant parameter spaces with the smallest number of steps. In this work, an active learning approach based on conavigation of the hypothesis and experimental spaces is introduced. This is realized by combining the structured Gaussian processes containing probabilistic models of the possible system's behaviors (hypotheses) with reinforcement learning policy refinement (discovery). This approach closely resembles classical human-driven physical discovery, when several alternative hypotheses realized via models with adjustable parameters are tested during an experiment. This approach is demonstrated for exploring concentration-induced phase transitions in combinatorial libraries of Sm-doped BiFeO 3 using piezoresponse force microscopy, but it is straightforward to extend it to higher-dimensional parameter spaces and more complex physical problems once the experimental workflow and hypothesis generation are available.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2024

Synthesizing realistic sand assemblies with denoising diffusion in latent space

Abstract The shapes and morphological features of grains in sand assemblies have far‐reaching implications in many engineering applications, such as geotechnical engineering, computer animations, petroleum engineering, and concentrated solar power. Yet, our understanding of the influence of grain geometries on macroscopic response is often only qualitative, due to the limited availability of high‐quality 3D grain geometry data. In this paper, we introduce a denoising diffusion algorithm that uses a set of point clouds collected from the surface of individual sand grains to generate grains in the latent space. By employing a point cloud autoencoder, the three‐dimensional point cloud structures of sand grains are first encoded into a lower‐dimensional latent space. A generative denoising diffusion probabilistic model is trained to produce synthetic sand that maximizes the log‐likelihood of the generated samples belonging to the original data distribution measured by a Kullback‐Leibler divergence. Numerical experiments suggest that the proposed method is capable of generating realistic grains with morphology, shapes and sizes consistent with the training data inferred from an F50 sand database. We then use a rigid contact dynamic simulator to pour the synthetic sand in a confined volume to form granular assemblies in a static equilibrium state with targeted distribution properties. To ensure third‐party validation, 50,000 synthetic sand grains and the 1542 real synchrotron microcomputed tomography (SMT) scans of the F50 sand, as well as the granular assemblies composed of synthetic sand grains are made available in an open‐source repository.

Vlassis, Nikolaos N.↗

DOE OSTI2022

A functional global sensitivity measure and efficient reliability sensitivity analysis with respect to statistical parameters

Sensitivity analysis and reliability assessment are two important aspects of structural and system safety. Epistemic uncertainty with respect to probabilistic model of input parameters due to lack of knowledge is present in many scarce-data applications and complicates the characterization of uncertainty in model response. In this article, we present two importance measures to evaluate the impact of distribution parameters on the probability distribution function (PDF) of the output and the failure probability. The epistemic uncertainty associated with the distribution parameters is modeled as random variables. Additionally, a modified extended polynomial chaos expansion (MEPCE) approach is introduced in which aleatory and epistemic random variables are modeled and propagated simultaneously while allowing the separate assessment for any single epistemic variable. A MEPCE-based kernel density estimation (KDE) construction provides a composite map from each epistemic variable to the response PDF. The functional global sensitivity index of the PDF with respect to the distribution parameters is thus derived, as a function of output, which is both more informative and more efficient than standard scalar sensitivity measures. Reliability sensitivity indices can be readily evaluated by integrating the global sensitivity index function over the failure zone. Three illustrative examples are used to demonstrate the proposed methodology.

42 ENGINEERING↗