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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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DOE OSTI2024

Coupled Multiphysics Modeling of Lithium-Ion Batteries for Automotive Crashworthiness Applications

Considerable advances have been made in battery safety models, but achieving predictive accuracy across a wide range of conditions continues to be challenging. Interactions between dynamically evolving mechanical, electrical, and thermal state variables make model prediction difficult during mechanical abuse scenarios. In this study, we develop a physics-based modeling approach that allows for choosing between different mechanical and electrochemical models depending on the required level of analysis. We demonstrate the use of this approach to connect cell-level abuse response to electrode-level and particle-level transport phenomena. A pseudo-two-dimensional model and simplified single-particle models are calibrated to electrical-thermal cycling data and applied to mechanically induced short-circuit scenarios to understand how the choice of electrochemical model affects the model prediction under abuse scenarios. These models are implemented using user-defined subroutines on ls-dyna finite element software and can be coupled with existing automotive crash safety models.

analysis and design of components↗

DOE OSTI2024

Learning epistatic polygenic phenotypes with Boolean interactions

Detecting epistatic drivers of human phenotypes is a considerable challenge. Traditional approaches use regression to sequentially test multiplicative interaction terms involving pairs of genetic variants. For higher-order interactions and genome-wide large-scale data, this strategy is computationally intractable. Moreover, multiplicative terms used in regression modeling may not capture the form of biological interactions. Building on the Predictability, Computability, Stability (PCS) framework, we introduce the epiTree pipeline to extract higher-order interactions from genomic data using tree-based models. The epiTree pipeline first selects a set of variants derived from tissue-specific estimates of gene expression. Next, it uses iterative random forests (iRF) to search training data for candidate Boolean interactions (pairwise and higher-order). We derive significance tests for interactions, based on a stabilized likelihood ratio test, by simulating Boolean tree-structured null (no epistasis) and alternative (epistasis) distributions on hold-out test data. Finally, our pipeline computes PCS epistasis p-values that probabilisticly quantify improvement in prediction accuracy via bootstrap sampling on the test set. We validate the epiTree pipeline in two case studies using data from the UK Biobank: predicting red hair and multiple sclerosis (MS). In the case of predicting red hair, epiTree recovers known epistatic interactions surrounding MC1R and novel interactions, representing non-linearities not captured by logistic regression models. In the case of predicting MS, a more complex phenotype than red hair, epiTree rankings prioritize novel interactions surrounding HLA-DRB1 , a variant previously associated with MS in several populations. Taken together, these results highlight the potential for epiTree rankings to help reduce the design space for follow up experiments.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Integrating Deep Learning and Hydrodynamic Modeling to Improve the Great Lakes Forecast

The Laurentian Great Lakes, one of the world’s largest surface freshwater systems, pose a modeling challenge in seasonal forecast and climate projection. While physics-based hydrodynamic modeling is a fundamental approach, improving the forecast accuracy remains critical. In recent years, machine learning (ML) has quickly emerged in geoscience applications, but its application to the Great Lakes hydrodynamic prediction is still in its early stages. This work is the first one to explore a deep learning approach to predicting spatiotemporal distributions of the lake surface temperature (LST) in the Great Lakes. Our study shows that the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) neural network, trained with the limited data from hypothetical monitoring networks, can provide consistent and robust performance. The LSTM prediction captured the LST spatiotemporal variabilities across the five Great Lakes well, suggesting an effective and efficient way for monitoring network design in assisting the ML-based forecast. Furthermore, we employed an explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) technique named SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) to uncover how the features impact the LSTM prediction. Our XAI analysis shows air temperature is the most influential feature for predicting LST in the trained LSTM. The relatively large bias in the LSTM prediction during the spring and fall was associated with substantial heterogeneity of air temperature during the two seasons. In contrast, the physics-based hydrodynamic model performed better in spring and fall yet exhibited relatively large biases during the summer stratification period. Finally, we developed a statistical integration of the hydrodynamic modeling and deep learning results based on the Best Linear Unbiased Estimator (BLUE). The integration further enhanced prediction accuracy, suggesting its potential for next-generation Great Lakes forecast systems.

Xue, Pengfei (ORCID:000000025702421X)↗

DOE OSTI2020

Development and Validation of SAM Multi-dimensional Flow Model for Thermal Mixing and Stratification Modeling

Thermal mixing and stratification in large pools or enclosures are very important phenomena that are critical to nuclear reactor safety. Because of the wide ranges of time and length scales associated with such phenomena, accurate modeling and simulation of thermal mixing and stratification remain as the key unresolved, challenging problems for reactor transient analyses. In traditional system analysis codes, simplified zero-dimensional (0-D) models are widely used for their high numerical efficiency, but they generally suffer from very limited prediction accuracies or range of applicability. Like traditional system analysis codes, the current version of the SAM code has implemented such simplified 0-D and one-dimensional mixing models. On the other hand, high-resolution Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) tools are often used to model complex thermal mixing and stratification phenomena. They are, however, generally numerically expensive, and they require large amounts of computational resources. It is therefore desirable to implement advanced and efficient thermal mixing and stratification modeling capabilities embedded in a system analysis code. This approach will improve the accuracy of reactor safety analyses when thermal mixing and stratification are involved, and also avoid using the large computational resources needed for high-resolution CFD analysis. Currently, with the support of the U.S. DOE Office of Nuclear Energy’s Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation program, an effort has been launched to develop and implement a multi-dimensional flow model in the system analysis code SAM, and demonstrate its applications to model thermal mixing and stratification phenomena in large enclosures. The main outcomes of this research and development activity are summarized in this report, which presents an attempt to include a built-in advanced multi-dimensional flow model in a system analysis code with the focus on overcoming the simulation challenges of thermal mixing and stratification phenomena. In this report, we start with the introduction of existing SAM code capabilities to simulate thermal mixing and stratification phenomena, which is followed by a short summary of the multi-dimensional model implemented in the SAM code, including both the physical model and the Finite Element Method code implementation. In this study, two options were implemented in the SAM code to model turbulent flows: a relatively simple built-in turbulence model and an interface to accept externally computed turbulent viscosities (e.g., from a high- resolution CFD simulation). Code validation studies on this newly added capability were then carried out to compare SAM simulation results with experimental data from the SUPERCAVNA facility, which was designed to study the complex flow recirculation and thermal stratification phenomena relevant to sodium fast reactor designs. In this study, one transient and two steady-state test cases were used for code validation. Different approaches have been used to model the complex turbulence flow fields in the SUPERCAVNA facility. A highly simplified zero-equation turbulence model was first used, but it was determined that it is too simple to capture the complex turbulence flow fields in these test cases. Subsequently, the code validation continued with the use of turbulent viscosity data from high-resolution STAR-CCM+ CFD simulations to improve the accuracy of the results. Using this approach, the SAM simulation results showed very good agreement with both the SUPERCAVNA experimental data and STAR-CCM+ simulation results. In this report, we demonstrate the development, implementation, and successful validation of a multi-dimensional flow model in the SAM code, which aims to improve the simulation accuracy for complex thermal mixing and stratification phenomena. Lessons have also been learned, including that in cases where the flow fields are not well predicted by the zero-equation model, the iinput of turbulent viscosities from an external source can enhance the overall predictive capabilities needed to accurately capture complex thermal-hydraulic phenomena. Therefore, future research will be needed to further improve the code’s capabilities, such as by developing a more efficient and robust approach to capture the turbulence effects in the SAM code.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

NASA NTRS1990

Numerical experiments on the accuracy of ENO and modified ENO schemes

Numerical experiments have been performed using different ENO schemes and different time discretizations, in order to assess accuracy-degeneracy phenomena of the type described by Rogerson and Meiburg (1990). A modified ENO scheme recovers the correct order of accuracy for all the test problems with smooth initial conditions and gives results comparable to the original ENO schemes for discontinuous problems. It is concluded that ENO schemes may lose the full high-order accuracy predicted by local truncation-error analysis for scalar linear conservation laws with smooth initial conditions. A modified ENO scheme can overcome this accuracy-degeneracy problem for the test problems without increasing the computational cost.

Shu, Chi-Wang↗

NASA NTRS2020

Predicting Gate Conflicts at Charlotte Douglas International Airport Using NASA ATD-2 Fused Data Sources

NASA is conducting the Airspace Technology Demonstration-2 to evaluate an Integrated Arrival, Departure, and Surface (IADS) traffic management system. The IADS system is powered by real-time System Wide Information Management feeds which provide an accurate and high fidelity view of the lifecycle of a flight. This data can be leveraged to drive efficiencies in the National Airspace System. For non safety critical applications there is opportunity for third party service providers to offer this type of data-driven prediction service in near real-time. This paper investigates the gate conflict prediction problem as a concrete use case which could help drive efficiencies. We model gate conflicts as a regression problem and describe the iterative process of model building, model validation, and evaluation used to assess the efficacy of our approach. We quantify our predictive accuracy and identify paths for improvement. Through this iterative process we hope to evolve our models and methods to a near real-time prediction service.

Airspace Technology Demonstration 2↗

DOE OSTI2021

Modeling household online shopping demand in the U.S.: a machine learning approach and comparative investigation between 2009 and 2017

Despite the rapid growth of online shopping and research interest in the relationship between online and in-store shopping, national-level modeling and investigation of the demand for online shopping with a prediction focus remain limited in the literature. Here, this paper differs from prior work and leverages two recent releases of the U.S. National Household Travel Survey (NHTS) data for 2009 and 2017 to develop machine learning (ML) models, specifically gradient boosting machine (GBM), for predicting household-level online shopping purchases. The NHTS data allow for not only conducting nationwide investigation but also at the level of households, which is more appropriate than at the individual level given the connected consumption and shopping needs of members in a household. We follow a systematic procedure for model development including employing Recursive Feature Elimination algorithm to select input variables (features) in order to reduce the risk of model overfitting and increase model explainability. Among several ML models, GBM is found to yield the best prediction accuracy. Extensive post-modeling investigation is conducted in a comparative manner between 2009 and 2017, including quantifying the importance of each input variable in predicting online shopping demand, and characterizing value-dependent relationships between demand and the input variables. In doing so, two latest advances in machine learning techniques, namely Shapley value-based feature importance and Accumulated Local Effects plots, are adopted to overcome inherent drawbacks of the popular techniques in current ML modeling. The modeling and investigation are performed at the national level, with a number of findings obtained. The models developed and insights gained can be used for online shopping-related freight demand generation and may also be considered for evaluating the potential impact of relevant policies on online shopping demand.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2021

Computational Framework for Machine-Learning-Enabled 13 C Fluxomics

13 C metabolic flux analysis (MFA) has emerged as a powerful tool for synthetic biology. This optimization-based approach suffers long computation time and unstable solutions depending on the initial guess. Here, we develop a machine-learning-based framework for 13 C fluxomics. Specifically, training and test data sets are generated by metabolic network decomposition and flux sampling, in which flux ratios at metabolic nodes and simulated labeling patterns of metabolites are used as training targets and features, respectively. To improve prediction accuracy and simplify the model, automated processes are developed for flux ratio selection based on solvability and feature screening based on importance. We found that predictive performance can be significantly improved using both amino acids and central carbon metabolites in comparison with amino acids alone. Together with measured external fluxes, the predicted flux ratios determine the mass balance system, yielding global flux distributions. This approach is validated by flux estimation using both simulated and experimental data in comparison with canonical 13 C MFA. The approach represents a reliable fluxomics method readily applicable to high-throughput metabolic phenotyping, which highlights the advances of intelligent learning algorithms in synthetic biology, specifically in the Test and Learn stage of the Design-Build-Test-Learn cycle.

13C metabolic flux analysis↗

DOE OSTI2020

Gene Expression Thresholds Derived From Short-term Exposures Identify Rat Liver Tumorigens

Abstract Traditional methods for cancer risk assessment are resource-intensive, retrospective, and not feasible for the vast majority of environmental chemicals. In this study, we investigated whether quantitative genomic data from short-term studies may be used to set protective thresholds for potential tumorigenic effects. We hypothesized that gene expression biomarkers measuring activation of the key early events in established pathways for rodent liver cancer exhibit cross-chemical thresholds for tumorigenesis predictive for liver cancer risk. We defined biomarker thresholds for 6 major liver cancer pathways using training sets of chemicals with short-term genomic data (3–29 days of exposure) from the TG-GATES (n = 77 chemicals) and DrugMatrix (n = 86 chemicals) databases and then tested these thresholds within and between datasets. The 6 pathway biomarkers represented genotoxicity, cytotoxicity, and activation of xenobiotic, steroid, and lipid receptors (aryl hydrocarbon receptor, constitutive activated receptor, estrogen receptor, and peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor α). Thresholds were calculated as the maximum values derived from exposures without detectable liver tumor outcomes. We identified clear response values that were consistent across training and test sets. Thresholds derived from the TG-GATES training set were highly predictive (97%) in a test set of independent chemicals, whereas thresholds derived from the DrugMatrix study were 96%–97% predictive for the TG-GATES study. Threshold values derived from an abridged gene list (2/biomarker) also exhibited high predictive accuracy (91%–94%). These findings support the idea that early genomic changes can be used to establish threshold estimates or “molecular tipping points” that are predictive of later-life health outcomes.

Hill, III,, Thomas↗

NASA NTRS1981

Remote sensing of temperature profiles in vegetation canopies using multiple view angles and inversion techniques

A mathematical method is presented which allows the determination of vertical temperature profiles of vegetation canopies from multiple sensor view angles and some knowledge of the vegetation geometric structure. The technique was evaluated with data from several wheat canopies at different stages of development, and shown to be most useful in the separation of vegetation and substrate temperatures with greater accuracy in the case of intermediate and dense vegetation canopies than in sparse ones. The converse is true for substrate temperatures. Root-mean-square prediction accuracies of temperatures for intermediate-density wheat canopies were 1.8 C and 1.4 C for an exact and an overdeterminate system, respectively. The findings have implication for remote sensing research in agriculture, geology or other earth resources disciplines.

Kimes, D. S.↗

DOE OSTI2023

The genome-scale metabolic model for the purple non-sulfur bacterium Rhodopseudomonas palustris Bis A53 accurately predicts phenotypes under chemoheterotrophic, chemoautotrophic, photoheterotrophic, and photoautotrophic growth conditions

The purple non-sulfur bacterium Rhodopseudomonas palustris is recognized as a critical microorganism in the nitrogen and carbon cycle and one of the most common members in wastewater treatment communities. This bacterium is metabolically extremely versatile. It is capable of heterotrophic growth under aerobic and anaerobic conditions, but also able to grow photoautotrophically as well as mixotrophically. Therefore R . palustris can adapt to multiple environments and establish commensal relationships with other organisms, expressing various enzymes supporting degradation of amino acids, carbohydrates, nucleotides, and complex polymers. Moreover, R . palustris can degrade a wide range of pollutants under anaerobic conditions, e.g., aromatic compounds such as benzoate and caffeate, enabling it to thrive in chemically contaminated environments. However, many metabolic mechanisms employed by R . palustris to breakdown and assimilate different carbon and nitrogen sources under chemoheterotrophic or photoheterotrophic conditions remain unknown. Systems biology approaches, such as metabolic modeling, have been employed extensively to unravel complex mechanisms of metabolism. Previously, metabolic models have been reconstructed to study selected capabilities of R . palustris under limited experimental conditions. Here, we developed a comprehensive metabolic model (M-model) for R . palustris Bis A53 ( i DT1294) consisting of 2,721 reactions, 2,123 metabolites, and comprising 1,294 genes. We validated the model using high-throughput phenotypic, physiological, and kinetic data, testing over 350 growth conditions. i DT1294 achieved a prediction accuracy of 90% for growth with various carbon and nitrogen sources and close to 80% for assimilation of aromatic compounds. Moreover, the M-model accurately predicts dynamic changes of growth and substrate consumption rates over time under nine chemoheterotrophic conditions and demonstrated high precision in predicting metabolic changes between photoheterotrophic and photoautotrophic conditions. This comprehensive M-model will help to elucidate metabolic processes associated with the assimilation of multiple carbon and nitrogen sources, anoxygenic photosynthesis, aromatic compound degradation, as well as production of molecular hydrogen and polyhydroxybutyrate.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1986

Evaluation of spacecraft navigation using the Tracking and Data Relay Satellite System (TDRSS)

The navigational capabilities of the TDRSS for the operational support of user spacecraft is evaluated. A batch-weighted least-squares algorithm is used to fit tracking measurements and to generate orbit solutions for the TDRS-E spacecraft and the following user spacecraft: (1) the SMM, (2) the Landsat-5, (3) the Earth Radiation Budget Satellite (ERBS), and (4) the Solar Mesosphere Explorer (SME). TDRS-E orbit accuracy was evaluated by using the consistency of consecutive orbit solutions as a measure; user orbit accuracy was estimated by comparing orbits determined from TDRSS tracking with orbits obtained from ground tracking for the same time periods. It was found that the predicted accuracy of the TDRS-E orbit propagation was improved by as much as seven times by refining the spherical harmonic expansion model of the earth's potential field. The results obtained for SMM were fairly consistent, while those obtained for Landsat-5 were consistent to better than 80 meters. The orbits obtained using ERBS tracking were consistent to better than 60 meters and the SME orbits for two arcs with 14 and 20 passes of TDRSS tracking had a maximum position difference of 140 meters.

Samii, M. V.↗

NASA NTRS2021

Flight Demonstration of the Tailored Arrival Manager

A flight demonstration of arrival traffic management automation was conducted in partnership between NASA, FAA and Boeing as an element of the latter’s ecoDemonstrator2020 flight program. For the demonstration, NASA’s prototype Tailored Arrival Manager(TAM) was used to compute efficient trajectory-based solutions to traffic management problems representing those encountered during time-based metering operations today. TAM solutions involving route modifications were uplinked to a Boeing 787 airplane using Controller Pilot Data Link Communications and seamlessly loaded into the airplane’s Flight Management System (FMS). The paper describes the concept and technology behind TAM along with the data exchanges and procedures involved with the demonstration. All TAM solutions were delivered in a timely manner and successfully integrated with the airplane’s FMS, thereby demonstrating the basic feasibility of trajectory-based arrival management using currently available data communications and avionics equipage. Although TAM solutions were not executed during this initial demonstration, a limited study of trajectory prediction accuracy was possible given that the airplane flew uninterrupted, automated descents with known route and speed intent. Analysis revealed that TAM meter-fix arrival time predictions were accurate to within ± 30 seconds for time horizons of 30 minutes or less, which matched closely with FMS predictions acquired through real-time data exchange. Top-of-descent predictions over similar time horizons were found accurate to within ± 5 nautical miles.

air traffic management↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Flight Demonstration of the Tailored Arrival Manager

Air traffic managment↗

NASA NTRS2019

Two-Phase Convection Heat Transfer Correlations for Liquid Hydrogen Pipe Chilldown

Recently, heat transfer correlations based on liquid nitrogen (LN2) and liquid hydrogen (LH2) pipe quenching data were developed to improve the predictive accuracy of lumped node codes like SINDA/FLUINT and the Generalized Fluid System Simulation Program (GFSSP). After implementing these correlations into both programs, updated model runs showed strong improvement in LN2 pipe chilldown modeling but only modest improvement in LH2 modeling. Due to large differences in thermal and fluid properties between the two fluids, results indicated a need to develop a separate set of LH2-only correlations to improve the accuracy of the simulations. This paper presents a new set of two-phase convection heat transfer correlations based on LH2 pipe quenching data. A correlation to predict the bulk vapor temperature was developed after analysis showed that high amounts of thermal nonequilibrium of the liquid and vapor phases occurred during film boiling of LH2. Implemented in a numerical model, the new correlations achieve a mean absolute error of 19.5 K in the predicted wall temperature when compared to recent LH2 pipe chilldown data, an improvement of 40% over recent GFSSP predictions. This correlation set can be implemented in simulations of the transient LH2 chilldown process. Such simulations are useful for predicting the chilldown time and boil-off mass of LH2 for applications such as the transfer of LH2 from a ground storage tank to the rocket vehicle propellant tank, or through a rocket engine feedline during engine startup.

critical heat flux↗

DOE OSTI2024

Adaptive Data-Driven Deep-Learning Surrogate Model for Frontal Polymerization in Dicyclopentadiene

Frontal polymerization (FP) is a self-sustaining curing process that enables rapid and energy-efficient manufacturing of thermoset polymers and composites. Computational methods conventionally used to simulate the FP process are time-consuming, and repeating simulations are required for sensitivity analysis, uncertainty quantification, or optimization of the manufacturing process. Here, in this work, we develop an adaptive surrogate deep-learning model for FP of dicyclopentadiene (DCPD), which predicts the evolution of temperature and degree of cure orders of magnitude faster than the finite-element method (FEM). The adaptive algorithm provides a strategy to select training samples efficiently and save computational costs by reducing the redundancy of FEM-based training samples. The adaptive algorithm calculates the residual error of the FP governing equations using automatic differentiation of the deep neural network. A probability density function expressed in terms of the residual error is used to select training samples from the Sobol sequence space. The temperature and degree of cure evolution of each training sample are obtained by a 2D FEM simulation. The adaptive method is more efficient and has a better prediction accuracy than the random sampling method. With the well-trained surrogate neural network, the FP characteristics (front speed, shape, and temperature) can be extracted quickly from the predicted temperature and degree-of-cure fields.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2023

Model certainty in cellular network-driven processes with missing data

Mathematical models are often used to explore network-driven cellular processes from a systems perspective. However, a dearth of quantitative data suitable for model calibration leads to models with parameter unidentifiability and questionable predictive power. Here we introduce a combined Bayesian and Machine Learning Measurement Model approach to explore how quantitative and non-quantitative data constrain models of apoptosis execution within a missing data context. We find model prediction accuracy and certainty strongly depend on rigorous data-driven formulations of the measurement, and the size and make-up of the datasets. For instance, two orders of magnitude more ordinal (e.g., immunoblot) data are necessary to achieve accuracy comparable to quantitative (e.g., fluorescence) data for calibration of an apoptosis execution model. Notably, ordinal and nominal (e.g., cell fate observations) non-quantitative data synergize to reduce model uncertainty and improve accuracy. Finally, we demonstrate the potential of a data-driven Measurement Model approach to identify model features that could lead to informative experimental measurements and improve model predictive power.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1992

Evaluating model accuracy for model-based reasoning

Described here is an approach to automatically assessing the accuracy of various components of a model. In this approach, actual data from the operation of a target system is used to drive statistical measures to evaluate the prediction accuracy of various portions of the model. We describe how these statistical measures of model accuracy can be used in model-based reasoning for monitoring and design. We then describe the application of these techniques to the monitoring and design of the water recovery system of the Environmental Control and Life Support System (ECLSS) of Space Station Freedom.

Chien, Steve↗