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At least 253 records · Page 14

Fall 2024 Solar Industry Update [Slides]

Each quarter, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) conducts the Quarterly Solar Industry Update, a presentation of technical trends within the solar industry. Each presentation focuses on global and U.S. supply and demand, module and system price, investment trends and business models, and updates on U.S. government programs supporting the solar industry.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Current and future global climate impacts resulting from COVID-19

The global response to the COVID-19 pandemic has led to a sudden reduction of both GHG emissions and air pollutants. Here, using national mobility data, we estimate global emission reductions for ten species during the period February to June 2020. We estimate that global NOx emissions declined by as much as 30% in April, contributing a short-term cooling since the start of the year. This cooling trend is offset by ~20% reduction in global SO2 emissions that weakens the aerosol cooling effect, causing short-term warming. As a result, we estimate that the direct effect of the pandemic-driven response will be negligible, with a cooling of around 0.01 ± 0.005 °C by 2030 compared to a baseline scenario that follows current national policies. In contrast, with an economic recovery tilted towards green stimulus and reductions in fossil fuel investments, it is possible to avoid future warming of 0.3 °C by 2050.

Piers M. Forster↗

Enhanced Representation of Soil NO Emissions in the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) Model Version 5.0.2

Modeling of soil nitric oxide (NO) emissions is highly uncertain and may misrepresent its spatial and temporal distribution. This study builds upon a recently introduced parameterization to improve the timing and spatial distribution of soil NO emission estimates in the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model. The parameterization considers soil parameters, meteorology, land use, and mineral nitrogen (N) availability to estimate NO emissions. We incorporate daily year-specific fertilizer data from the Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) agricultural model to replace the annual generic data of the initial parameterization, and use a 12km resolution soil biome map over the continental USA. CMAQ modeling for July 2011 shows slight differences in model performance in simulating fine particulate matter and ozone from Interagency Monitoring of Protected Visual Environments (IMPROVE) and Clean Air Status and Trends Network (CASTNET) sites and NO2 columns from Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) satellite retrievals. We also simulate how the change in soil NO emissions scheme affects the expected O3 response to projected emissions reductions.

remote sensing↗

State Indicators for Advancing Demand Flexibility and Energy Efficiency in Buildings - Part I [Slides]

This slide deck report identifies objectives and key indicators for state activities that advance demand flexibility in buildings — legislation, utility regulatory proceedings, executive orders and programs. It also illustrates progress to date and identifies trends, gaps, and opportunities. Part I of the report focuses on (1) demand response and (2) energy efficiency targeted to reduce peak demand or integrate with demand response. This section covers building energy codes, appliance and equipment standards, resource standards, utility planning, utility programs, advanced metering infrastructure and meter data, rate design, state programs, state energy planning, and related state policies and regulations. Part II of the report addresses traditional energy efficiency indicators, including utility and state programs, codes, and standards that support annual energy savings. See the additional links for an infographic, library of cited state documents on demand flexibility, and presentation to the NASEO-NARUC Grid-Interactive Efficient Buildings Working Group.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Assessing carbon storage capacity and saturation across six central US grasslands using data–model integration

Abstract. Future global changes will impact carbon (C) fluxes and pools in most terrestrial ecosystems and the feedback of terrestrial carbon cycling to atmospheric CO2. Determining the vulnerability of C in ecosystems to future environmental change is thus vital for targeted land management and policy. The C capacity of an ecosystem is a function of its C inputs (e.g., net primary productivity – NPP) and how long C remains in the system before being respired back to the atmosphere. The proportion of C capacity currently stored by an ecosystem (i.e., its C saturation) provides information about the potential for long-term C pools to be altered by environmental and land management regimes. We estimated C capacity, C saturation, NPP, and ecosystem C residence time in six US grasslands spanning temperature and precipitation gradients by integrating high temporal resolution C pool and flux data with a process-based C model. As expected, NPP across grasslands was strongly correlated with mean annual precipitation (MAP), yet C residence time was not related to MAP or mean annual temperature (MAT). We link soil temperature, soil moisture, and inherent C turnover rates (potentially due to microbial function and tissue quality) as determinants of carbon residence time. Overall, we found that intermediates between extremes in moisture and temperature had low C saturation, indicating that C in these grasslands may trend upwards and be buffered against global change impacts. Hot and dry grasslands had greatest C saturation due to both small C inputs through NPP and high C turnover rates during soil moisture conditions favorable for microbial activity. Additionally, leaching of soil C during monsoon events may lead to C loss. C saturation was also high in tallgrass prairie due to frequent fire that reduced inputs of aboveground plant material. Accordingly, we suggest that both hot, dry ecosystems and those frequently disturbed should be subject to careful land management and policy decisions to prevent losses of C stored in these systems.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Alaska's Changing Fire Regime - Implications for the Vulnerability of Its Boreal Forests

A synthesis was carried out to examine Alaska s boreal forest fire regime. During the 2000s, an average of 767 000 ha/year burned, 50% higher than in any previous decade since the 1940s. Over the past 60 years, there was a decrease in the number of lightning-ignited fires, an increase in extreme lightning-ignited fire events, an increase in human-ignited fires, and a decrease in the number of extreme human-ignited fire events. The fraction of area burned from humanignited fires fell from 26% for the 1950s and 1960s to 5% for the 1990s and 2000s, a result from the change in fire policy that gave the highest suppression priorities to fire events that occurred near human settlements. The amount of area burned during late-season fires increased over the past two decades. Deeper burning of surface organic layers in black spruce (Picea mariana (Mill.) BSP) forests occurred during late-growing-season fires and on more well-drained sites. These trends all point to black spruce forests becoming increasingly vulnerable to the combined changes of key characteristics of Alaska s fire regime, except on poorly drained sites, which are resistant to deep burning. The implications of these fire regime changes to the vulnerability and resilience of Alaska s boreal forests and land and fire management are discussed.

Kasischke, E. S.↗

Electrifying Education: Insights into Charging Electric School Buses in the United States

To combat climate change, the United States joined 193 Parties in committing to the Paris Agreement, which aims to limit global warming to 2 degrees C or less, and decarbonizing transportation will be a key requirement for achieving this goal. School buses (SBs) are a common form of student transport in the U.S. with nearly all SBs today powered by fossil fuels (primarily diesel). As a result, SBs have historically been a concerning source of both greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and local air pollutants with negative health impacts for students and others living nearby. Electric SBs (ESBs) are a promising emerging technology for decarbonizing student transport, however, ESB adoption in the U.S. remains at an early stage (approximate 1.1%) with many outstanding uncertainties. This study aims to elucidate several of these by taking inventory of the total SB stock within U.S. states and studying real-world SB operating profiles to infer potential battery range requirements, daily charging opportunities, and charging infrastructure requirements for ESBs. In addition, we observe the geographic trends of early-stage ESB adoption, which can be used to better understand early adopter patterns and train vehicle technology adoption models.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS,ENERGY PLANNING, POLIC↗

Understanding Your Utility Bills: Electricity

Electricity bills can often be difficult to decipher. Depending in the electricity provider, bills can be very long and detailed or extremely short, with only a few totals listed. Different charges can appear each month with no apparent explanation of how or why they are calculated. Learning how to read electricity bills and understand why different charges are assessed is key to maximizing cost savings through energy efficiency. This document provides guidance on the basics of understanding electricity bills and covers electricity generation, rate structures, usage trends, and savings opportunities. The information in this guide can be used to help companies collect and report their energy efficiency improvements to the DOE Better Plants Program.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Current status of anaerobic digestion of food waste in the United States

Utilization of food waste (FW) and food processing waste streams in waste-to-energy technologies has increased over the years in United States (US). This review paper compiled information from published literature and open data sources to obtain a holistic view of the current state of FW availability and its management using anaerobic digestion (AD). The review examined the usage of FW as a feedstock for AD by considering the feedstock composition and availability of FW in the US as well as challenges and opportunities with implementing FW in mono- and co-digestion. Also presented are global trends in FW digestion and the current status of FW codigestion in the US. FW in the US was characterized with regard to volume and composition to show a need for waste management and an opportunity for valuable resource recovery. Challenges and opportunities of processing via AcoD were presented to review best practices for successful operations. Environmental standards, economic incentives, and governmental policies in the US and around the world regarding waste management and utilization were discussed to identify barriers and sources of opportunity for large-scale implementation of AcoD. Additionally, a range of facilities throughout the US was examined for information regarding digestion type, feedstock (s), biogas production and utilization, and energy self-sufficiency to better understand the current status of FW digestion. Several US facilities were outlined as case studies that co-digest FW and produce and utilize biogas for various applications. Future strategies, perspectives, and roadmaps were discussed to elucidate the shaping of future FW management practices.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

U.S. Hydropower Workforce: Challenges and Opportunities

Over the past four years, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) has engaged with the hydropower industry, academia, and students to understand the perspectives and challenges of the U.S. hydropower workforce. This engagement and research were sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE's) Water Power Technologies Office as part of an NREL-led project—Water Power Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics (STEM) to Workforce—which has the goal of developing tools and programs to strengthen the water power workforce pipeline. This report shares findings from that research and provides an update on U.S. hydropower workforce trends as a follow-on to NREL's 2019 report, Workforce Development for U.S. Hydropower: Key Trends and Findings (Keyser and Tegen 2019). Recent data from NREL, the Hydropower Foundation's survey efforts, and the hydropower industry are presented.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Climate Change and Drought: From Past to Future

Drought is a complex and multivariate phenomenon influenced by diverse physical and biological processes. Such complexity precludes simplistic explanations of cause and effect, making investigations of climate change and drought a challenging task. Here, we review important recent advances in our understanding of drought dynamics, drawing from studies of paleoclimate, the historical record, and model simulations of the past and future. Paleoclimate studies of drought variability over the last two millennia have progressed considerably through the development of new reconstructions and analyses combining reconstructions with process-based models. This work has generated new evidence for tropical Pacific forcing of megadroughts in Southwest North America, provided additional constraints for interpreting climate change projections in poorly characterized regions like East Africa, and demonstrated the exceptional magnitude of many modern era droughts. Development of high resolution proxy networks has lagged in many regions (e.g., South America, Africa), however, and quantitative comparisons between the paleoclimate record, models, and observations remain challenging. Fingerprints of anthropogenic climate change consistent with long-term warming projections have been identified for droughts in California, the Pacific Northwest, Western North America, and the Mediterranean. In other regions (e.g., Southwest North America, Australia, Africa), however, the degree to which climate change has affected recent droughts is more uncertain. While climate change-forced declines in precipitation have been detected for the Mediterranean, in most regions, the climate change signal has manifested through warmer temperatures that have increased evaporative losses and reduced snowfall and snowpack levels, amplifying deficits in soil moisture and runoff despite uncertain precipitation changes. Over the next century, projections indicate that warming will increase drought risk and severity across much of the subtropics and mid-latitudes in both hemispheres, a consequence of regional precipitation declines and widespread warming. For many regions, however, the magnitude, robustness, and even direction of climate change-forced trends in drought depends on how drought is defined, with often large differences across indicators of precipitation, soil moisture, runoff, and vegetation health. Increasing confidence in climate change projections of drought and the associated impacts will likely depend on resolving uncertainties in processes that are currently poorly constrained (e.g., land-atmosphere interactions, terrestrial vegetation) and improved consideration of the role for human policies and management in ameliorating and adapting to changes in drought risk.

Detection and attribution↗

Uncertainty Quantification of Bifacial Performance Modeling: Preprint

Analysis on uncertainty in the annual energy of PV systems that can be attributed to parameters of particular importance to bifacial PV modules is presented. Monte Carlo simulations are used to evaluate the effect of uncertain module bifaciality factors, module transmission fractions, albedo values, and ground clearance. The analyses cover a wide spectrum of potential PV array archetypes through variation of installation parameters. The results of the Monte Carlo analysis reveal that the uncertainty is largely dependent on albedo uncertainty, but more simulations are needed to identify trends across system archetypes. The simulations are aimed at attributing an annual energy uncertainty factor for bifacial considerations that can be applied in post-processing of project probability of exceedance analysis.

energy modeling↗

Too Much of a Good Thing? Global Trends in the Curtailment of Solar PV

Solar photovoltaic (PV) systems generate electricity with no marginal costs or emissions. As a result, PV output is almost always prioritized over other fuel sources and delivered to the electric grid. However, PV curtailment is increasing as PV composes greater shares of grid capacity. In this paper, we present a novel synthesis of curtailment in four key countries: Chile, China, Germany, and the United States. We find that about 6.5 million MWh of PV output was curtailed in these countries in 2018. We find that: Policy and grid planning practices influence where, when, and how much PV is curtailed; Some PV curtailment is attributable to limited transmission capacity connecting remote solar resources to load centers; PV curtailment peaks in the spring and fall, when PV output is relatively high but electricity demand is relatively low. We discuss available measures to reduce PV curtailment as well as increasing PV curtailment in the contexts of evolving grids and energy technologies.

41 EE - Solar Energy Technologies Office (EE-4S)↗

Packaged Combined Heat and Power Technology Overview and Market Profile

Combined heat and power (CHP), sometimes referred to as cogeneration, is an efficient and clean approach to generating electric power and useful thermal energy onsite from a single fuel source, offering reliable and affordable energy services to businesses and institutions. Furthermore, CHP provides a cost effective opportunity to improve the environmental footprint and resilience of industrial and commercial facilities across the United States. CHP equipment can be custom-engineered or installed as a predesigned and assembled package. A packaged CHP system is a standardized, pre-engineered system that includes all equipment, piping, wiring, and ancillary components to deliver electricity and thermal energy to a host facility with minimal onsite engineering and design time. Packaged CHP systems can be shipped as single or multiple modules with standard interconnections (e.g., fuel; electrical; thermal—hot water, steam, and/or chilled water), which simplifies installation and reduces the costs associated with the project. Most containerized or single packaged CHP system offerings range from 10 kW to 3 MW in capacity. Packaged CHP systems are extending the operating, efficiency, and emissions benefits of CHP to nontraditional markets in commercial, institutional, multifamily, light manufacturing, government, and military applications. These markets tend to be served by smaller systems (less than 5 MW) that are conducive to pre-engineered packaging and/or modularization. Many of these sectors have limited CHP experience and technical resources to adequately evaluate, install, and maintain onsite CHP systems. The introduction of packaged CHP offerings from experienced CHP Packagers and Solution Providers has accelerated CHP adoption, lowered energy costs, reduced emissions, and strengthened energy resilience in these sectors. In 2019, the US Department of Energy (DOE) launched the Packaged CHP eCatalog to promote increased acceptance of efficient, cost-effective CHP in these applications. The Packaged CHP eCatalog is a web-based, searchable platform that hosts DOE-recognized packaged CHP systems with features designed to reduce economic and performance risks for designers, developers, owners, and facility operators interested in installing CHP. DOE established the Packaged CHP Accelerator at the same time to help launch and publicize the eCatalog, and to validate project performance, cost, and installation time of CHP packages across a variety of applications. Accelerator efforts documented installed cost reductions and installation time reductions of more than 20% for packaged CHP systems over 100 kW compared with custom-engineered systems. The Packaged CHP Accelerator and eCatalog established a peer-to-peer network connecting public and private sector partners including utilities, state energy offices, and energy efficiency program administrators interested in promoting cost-effective, efficient CHP systems, Packagers, and Solution Providers. Feedback from these partners, along with input from DOE’s CHP Technical Assistance Partnerships (CHP TAPs), was critical in understanding the current market for packaged CHP technologies, stimulating investment in these technologies, and guiding future directions for packaged CHP systems and their applications. This report provides background on packaged CHP systems, an overview of their benefits, a profile of current packaged CHP installations, and a summary of future market trends; this report is intended for facility owners, project developers, engineers, policymakers, and other stakeholders looking to increase the adoption of efficient, flexible, and resilient packaged CHP systems.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

HRP Data Accessibility Current Status

Overview of talk: a) Content of Human Life Science data; b) Data archive structure; c) Applicable legal documents and policies; and d) Methods for data access. Life Science Data Archive (LSDA) contains research data from NASA-funded experiments, primarily data from flight experiments and ground analog data collected at NASA facilities. Longitudinal Study of Astronaut Health (LSAH) contains electronic health records (medical data) of all astronauts, including mission data. Data are collected for clinical purposes. Clinical data are analyzed by LSAH epidemiologists to identify trends in crew health and implement changes in pre-, in-, or post-flight medical care.

Sams, Clarence↗

Future SAR Imaging Systems: Goals, Plans, Challenges and Opportunities

Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) Earth observation data are becoming increasingly ubiquitous as new spaceborne systems become operational and their data are made available to scientists and applications users. The characteristic of active sensors like SAR to be able to observe Earth independent of weather or solar illumination, coupled with regular data acquisition, fosters reliability and encourages the investment in algorithm and product development toward a beneficial result. As SAR systems typically contain proprietary or nationally important technologies, civilian SAR systems are typically developed with a national focus, or in the case of the European Union, with the Union’s focus. As a result, when viewed from a global perspective, SAR programs can be generally viewed as independent developments, each with their own requirements, schedules, development approaches, and data policies. At the same time, these systems can be expensive, and particularly in an era of increasingly open data policies, coordination of programs could reduce redundancy in observations, increase sampling density and measurement diversity, and improve dependability of data streams in the long term. Since 2018, agency representatives from NASA, ESA, DLR, JAXA, ISRO, ASI, and CONAE have been evaluating the possibilities for programmatic and technical coordination of future SAR systems, data sharing, and scientific exploitation. In this paper, we describe the work in discovering trends and possibilities associated with flight systems, by evaluating current and future plans for SAR systems around the world, and identifying opportunities for coordination.

Zink, Manfred↗

Modern Scientific Data Governance Framework

Science has entered the era of Big Data with new challenges related to data governance, stewardship, and management. The existing data governance practices must catch up to ensure proper data management. Existing data governance policies and stewardship best practices tend to be disconnected from operational data management practices and enforcement and mainly exist in well-meaning documents or reports. These governance policies are, at best, partially implemented and rarely monitored or audited. In addition, existing governance policies keep adding additional data management steps that require a human, ‘a data steward’, in the loop, and the cost of data management can no longer scale proportionately with the current and future increased data volume and complexity. The goal for developing an updated data governance framework is to modernize scientific data governance to the reality of Big data and align it with the current technology trends such as cloud computing and AI. The goals of this framework are two folds. One is to ensure thoroughness that the governance adequately covers the entire data life cycle. Two, provide a practical approach that offers a consistent and repeatable process for different projects. Three core principles ground this framework. First, focus on just enough governance and prevent data governance from becoming a roadblock toward the scientific process. Remove any unnecessary processes and steps. Second, automate data management steps where possible. Actively remove steps that require ‘human in the loop’ within the management process to be efficient and scale with increasing data. Third, all the processes should continually be optimized using quantified metrics to streamline the monitoring and auditing workflows.

Rahul Ramachandran↗

Renewable Energy Technology and Systems Integration for the Oil and Gas Industry

Introduction to the mission and research of the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and the Joint Institute for Strategic Energy Analysis (JISEA). JISEA is co-sponsored by industries, governments, and partnered with several academic institutions (see https://www.jisea.org). Presentation will review statistics about the growth of renewable energy and also discuss potential future trends. It will review several specific case studies relevant to the oil and gas industry, including renewable energy for industrial operations and clean technologies and fuels that would be most relevant to oil and gas technologies and capabilities.

ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗