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At least 253 records · Page 14

Refining Processing Engines from SAPHIRE: Initialization of Fault Tree/Event Tree Solver

SAPHIRE has been extensively employed for over 35 years to model risk-important systems and quantify risk models. As a well-established and thoroughly documented Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) tool, SAPHIRE has continuously tracked computational trends and received regular updates. Despite its ongoing evolution, there remains a need for further enhancements, particularly in dealing with the quantification of exceptionally large models. These improvements could take the form of algorithmic advancements, harnessing the power of parallel computing, and exploring the potential benefits of cloud computing solutions. Considering these aspirations, the notion of a remote solve option was introduced and subsequently evolved into a dedicated project within the SAPHIRE development team. A significant outcome of this initiative is SAPHSOLVE, an engine extracted from the SageRisk API designed specifically for remote solving capabilities. The ongoing project is nearing its culmination, marked by a series of discoveries that have brought undocumented aspects to light. Among these revelations is the intricacy of the input and output format for the SAPHSOLVE engine. This document serves the crucial purpose of meticulously delineating the precise formats for both input and output, as they form an indispensable foundation. The importance of documenting these formats cannot be overstated, as it is a pivotal step in facilitating rigorous testing and comparison. Whether it involves scrutinizing SAPHSOLVE results against those of the internal integrated solver or other external solvers, the ability to construct models or transform existing ones into a compatible SAPHSOLVE format is imperative. Chapter 1 offers a succinct introduction to both SAPHIRE and SAPHSOLVE, followed by Chapter 2 which outlines the roadmap for enhancing SAPHSOLVE. The core of this report is Chapter 3, which intricately elucidates the intricacies of the input and output file formats. To provide a tangible illustration of these formats, a rudimentary example has been compiled and is available in Appendix. SAPHSOLVE represents a novel external solving mechanism developed by the SAPHIRE team, although it has not yet reached the full spectrum of capabilities possessed by SAPHIRE's internal solver. However, the SAPHIRE team has set a comprehensive course for incorporating the functionalities of SAPHSOLVE. A comprehensive outlook on the future of SAPHSOLVE is expounded upon in Chapter 4.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Light Water Reactor Sustainability Program: Use of Time Distributions to Predict Operator Procedure Performance in Dynamic Human Reliability Analysis

The Human Unimodel for Nuclear Technology to Enhance Reliability (HUNTER) framework affords software capable of conducting human reliability analysis (HRA) using a dynamic approach built around operating procedures (OPs) from nuclear power plants (NPPs). Previous HUNTER reports document the development of this software tool, the coupling of HUNTER to the simulator code, the collection of operator performance data by using simulators to calibrate HUNTER models, and linking HUNTER to probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) software. The present report largely addresses two topics. The first is a new function in HUNTER called the HUNTER Procedure Performance Predictor (P3). HUNTER P3 uses HUNTER’s built in Monte Carlo tools featuring human performance variability to identify potential error traps in procedures. The second topic is time distribution analysis to generate time inputs for dynamic HRA. The current analysis was performed to investigate time distributions for task primitives, which are the minimum task unit of analysis used in dynamic HRA modeling. Using the time distribution data, the elapsed time for human actions in an extended loss of AC power (ELAP) scenario is then investigated. Time data and prediction are essential for modeling procedure performance.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

High Energy Arcing Fault (HEAF): Sandia National Laboratories 2023 Report

High Energy Arcing Faults (HEAFs) are hazardous events in which an electrical arc leads to the rapid release of energy in the form of heat, vaporized metal, and mechanical force. In Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs), these events are often accompanied by loss of essential power and complicated shutdowns. To confirm the probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) methodology in NUREG/CR-6850, which was formulated based on limited observational data, the NRC led an international experimental campaign from 2014 to 2016. The results of these experiments uncovered an unexpected hazard posed by aluminum components in or near electrical equipment and the potential for unanalyzed equipment failures. Sandia National Laboratories (SNL), in support of the NRC work, collaborated with NIST, BSI, KEMA, and NRC to support the full-scale HEAF test campaign in 2023. SNL provided high speed and real time from visible and infrared video/data of tests that collected data from copper and aluminum busses from switchgears and bus-ducts. Part of SNL work was to place cameras with high-speed data collection capability at different vantage points that provide the NRC a more complete and granular view of the test events.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

High Energy Arcing Fault (HEAF) Photometrics 2022 Test Report

High Energy Arcing Faults (HEAFs) are hazardous events in which an electrical arc leads to the rapid release of energy in the form of heat, vaporized metal, and mechanical force. In Nuclear Power Plants, these events are often accompanied by loss of essential power and complicated shutdowns. To confirm the probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) methodology in NUREG/CR-6850, which was formulated based on limited observational data, the NRC led an international experimental campaign from 2014 to 2016. The results of these experiments uncovered an unexpected hazard posed by aluminum components in or near electrical equipment and the potential for unanalyzed equipment failures. Sandia National Laboratories (SNL), in support of the NRC work, collaborated with NIST, BSI, KEMA, and NRC to support the full-scale HEAF test campaign in 2022. SNL provided high speed visible and infrared video/data of ten tests that collected data from HEAFs originated on copper and aluminum buses inside switchgears and bus ducts. Part of the SNL scope was to place cameras with high-speed data collection at different vantage points within the test facility to provide NRC a more complete and granular view of the test events.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Causal CCF Parameter Estimations 2020

This report documents the quantitative results of the causal common-cause failure (CCF) parameter estimations for the failure cause groups “component,” “design,” “environment,” “human,” and “other,” based on CCF data through 2020 in the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) CCF database: https://rads.inl.gov/Pages/CCF.aspx. This report utilizes the same data period (2006–2020) and CCF templates as INL/EXT-21-62940, Revision 1, CCF Parameter Estimations, 2020 Update. The 2015 causal CCF prior distributions for the specific failure cause groups (instead of the 2015 generic CCF prior distributions) were used in this report to estimate the associated causal CCF parameters. All the 2015 causal CCF prior distributions and generic CCF prior distributions were developed in INL/EXT-21-43723, Developing Generic Prior Distributions for Common Cause Failure Alpha Factors and Causal Alpha Factors, using CCF data from 1997 to 2015. These quantitative results were developed to support the causal alpha factor model and should be used as appropriate in probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) studies such as the NRC Significance Determination Process for commercial nuclear power plants in the United States.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Adapting Traditional Hazards Analysis Methods to Address Cyber Risks

Traditional hazards analysis (HA) methods, originally developed to address physical and operational risks, often fall short when it comes to identifying and mitigating cyber threats. These cyber threats pose unique and evolving risks to critical infrastructure and industrial control systems (ICS). This report explores the integration of Cyber-Informed Engineering (CIE) principles into existing HA methods to enhance their ability to address cyber-induced risks. CIE provides organizations with a practical, cost-effective approach to closing the gap between traditional HA methods and the need for cyber risk mitigation. By leveraging existing safety processes and controls, CIE allows users to examine and mitigate cyber vulnerabilities without overhauling existing HA methods. This report identifies areas where HA and CIE naturally align and where their approaches diverge. It emphasizes how CIE principles can be used to adapt HA methods, broadening their scope to include cyber risks and enabling the mitigation of cyber- induced impacts alongside traditional hazards and failure scenarios. This report examines how CIE can be applied across various HA methods—such as Hazard and Operability Studies (HAZOP), Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA), Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA), Systems-Theoretic Process Analysis (STPA), Hazard and Consequence Analysis for Digital Systems (HAZCADS), and Layers of Protection Analysis (LOPA). It provides strategies for integrating CIE to strengthen the identification, assessment, and mitigation of cyber-induced risks. The findings offer a structured entry point for organizations to embed CIE concepts into hazards and safety analyses, as well as broader engineering processes, ultimately supporting the design and operation of a more resilient infrastructure.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Adapting Traditional Hazards Analysis Methods to Address Cyber Risks

Traditional hazards analysis (HA) methods, originally developed to address physical and operational risks, often fall short when it comes to identifying and mitigating cyber threats. These cyber threats pose unique and evolving risks to critical infrastructure and industrial control systems (ICS). This report explores the integration of Cyber-Informed Engineering (CIE) principles into existing HA methods to enhance their ability to address cyber-induced risks. CIE provides organizations with a practical, cost-effective approach to closing the gap between traditional HA methods and the need for cyber risk mitigation. By leveraging existing safety processes and controls, CIE allows users to examine and mitigate cyber vulnerabilities without overhauling existing HA methods. This report identifies areas where HA and CIE naturally align and where their approaches diverge. It emphasizes how CIE principles can be used to adapt HA methods, broadening their scope to include cyber risks and enabling the mitigation of cyber- induced impacts alongside traditional hazards and failure scenarios. This report examines how CIE can be applied across various HA methods—such as Hazard and Operability Studies (HAZOP), Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA), Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA), Systems-Theoretic Process Analysis (STPA), Hazard and Consequence Analysis for Digital Systems (HAZCADS), and Layers of Protection Analysis (LOPA). It provides strategies for integrating CIE to strengthen the identification, assessment, and mitigation of cyber-induced risks. The findings offer a structured entry point for organizations to embed CIE concepts into hazards and safety analyses, as well as broader engineering processes, ultimately supporting the design and operation of a more resilient infrastructure.

42 - ENGINEERING↗

Nuclear Safety [Vol. 30, No. 3, July-September 1989]

Nuclear Safety is a review journal that covers significant developments in the field of nuclear safety. Its scope includes the analysis and control of hazards associated with nuclear energy, operations involving fissionable materials, and the products of nuclear fission and their effects on the environment. Primary emphasis is on safety in reactor design, construction, and operation; however, the safety aspects of the entire fuel cycle, including fuel fabrication, spent-fuel processing, nuclear waste disposal, handling of radioisotopes, and environmental effects of these operations, are also treated. Table of Contents for this issue follows. GENERAL SAFETY CONSIDERATIONS: 325 Safety of Framatome Advanced Nuclear Steam Supply Systems Designs by J. A. Charles and D. Lange, 333 Book Review of Nuclear Accidents: Intervention Levels for the Protection of the Public by H. B. Piper; ACCIDENT ANALYSIS: 335 Living PRA Computer Systems by S. C. Dinsmore and H.-P. Balfanz, 343 Summary of ICAP Assessments of RELAP5/MOD2 by W. E. Driskell and R. G. Hanson; CONTROL AND INSTRUMENTATION: 352 Thermal Performance Monitoring System at Maanshan Nuclear Power Plant by H.-J. Chao, Y.-P. Lin, G.-H. Jou, L.-Y. Liao, and Y.-B. Chen; DESIGN FEATURES: 358 Warning Systems for Nuclear Power Plant Emergencies by J. H. Sorensen and D. S. Mileti; WASTE AND SPENT FUEL MANAGEMENT: 371 Activities Related to Waste Management Compiled by E G. Silver; OPERATING EXPERIENCES: 382 Steam Generator Tube Performance: Experience with Water-Cooled Nuclear Power Reactors During 1985 by O. S. Tatone and R. L. Tapping, 400 Systems Interaction Analyses: Concepts and Techniques (Part II) by M. D. Muhlheim and G. A. Murphy, 413 Reactor Shutdown Experience Compiled by J. W. Cletcher, 416 Operating U.S. Power Reactors Compiled by E G. Silver; RECENT DEVELOPMENTS: 440 General Administrative Activities Compiled by E G. Silver, 460 Reports, Standards, and Safety Guides by D. S. Queener, 466 Status of Power-Reactor Licensing Activities Compiled by E G. Silver, 470 Proposed Rule Changes as of Mar. 31, 1989; ANNOUNCEMENTS: 334 Proceedings Published, 351 CEC Seminar on Methods and Codes for Assessing the Off-Site Consequences of Nuclear Accidents, 357 Short Course on Multiphase Flow and Heat Transfer: Bases and Applications in A: The Nuclear Power Industry B: The Process Industries, 357 International Conference on Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management, 478 International Topical Meeting on the Safety, Status, and Future of Non-Commercial Reactors and Irradiation Facilities, 475 The Authors.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Data-Driven Probabilistic Anomaly Detection for Electricity Market under Cyber Attacks

Information and communication technologies have been widely used in smart grid for efficient operation. However, these technologies are vulnerable to malicious cyber attacks, which may lead to severe reliability and economic issues. Recently, a variety of data-driven anomaly detection approaches have been explored to detect potential cyber attacks in smart grids. In this paper, we researched on the electricity market data aiming to identify anomalies from the locational marginal prices (LMPs) and provide a new indicator for potential cyber attacks in power grids. Specifically, a novel data-driven probabilistic anomaly detection framework is proposed for electricity market, which consists of three major components: long short-term memory (LSTM) based deterministic electricity price forecasting, probabilistic electricity price forecasting and anomaly detection. This framework is tested on a model-based electricity market simulator under two types of cyber attacks, i.e., load redistribution attack (LRA) and price responsive attack (PRA). Numerical results on the simulated LMPs show that the proposed framework is capable of detecting data anomalies over these attacks.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Narrow-band Jovian Kilometric Radiation: a New Radio Component

A new component of Jupiter's radio spectrum is investigated. The component emits in a very narrow bandwidth (less than or equal to 40 kHz) near 100 kHz. Its waveform is a very smooth and gradual rise and subsequent fall in intensity, usually over two hours. The emission is polarized with left hand polarization associated with the Jovian northern magnetic hemisphere and right hand with the south. The emissions deviation from a strict system 3 rotation period repetition rate is examined. The emission source of the narrow band component which rotates 3 to 5 percent slower than all other forms of Jovian radio emission is determined from propagation considerations, coupled with the observed lack of corotation, to a source region near the equatorial plane at the outer edge of the Io plasma torus. The narrow band KOM (nKOM) form is examined using observations from the PRA instrument. The spectrum and occurrence statistics are described and contrasted with the tapered or broadband KOM (bKOM) characteristics.

Kaiser, M. L.↗

Radial diffusion in Io's torus - Some implications from Voyager I

Data from several Voyager 1 experiments are used to determine the magnitude and L dependence of the radial diffusion coefficient for low-energy charged particles outside of Io's orbit under steady-state conditions. The extreme ultraviolet observations near 685A are inverted to produce an ion density profile for L greater than 6. This normalized ion profile as well as the (equatorial) electron density profile estimated from the planetary radio astronomy (PRA) observations falls off as L to the -5th. Such a density gradient would make possible centrifugally driven cross-L diffusion outside of Io's orbit without ruling out the presence of an atmospherically driven mechanism. A lower limit for the radial diffusion coefficient DLL is 1.5 x 10 to the -10th L to the 5th (Jupiter radii squared per sec), yielding a characteristic diffusion time from 6RJ to 7RJ of less than 10 days, much shorter than previously anticipated. Steady-state diffusion is not a good assumption inside of Io's orbit, where the particle densities decrease sharply from 6 Jupiter radii to 5 Jupiter radii; the diffusion time in that region is probably longer than outside of Io's orbit.

Froidevaux, L.↗

Non-Io decametric radiation from Jupiter at frequencies above 30 MHz

Jovian Non-Io decametric radio events extending to frequencies of 30 MHz and above have been found in the Meudon-Nancay observations during 1978 and 1979, in the Voyager 1 PRA observations during February and March, 1979 and in the University of Colorado Radio Astronomy Observatory catalogue for 1960 to 1975. These events, which appear to be mostly associated with the Jovian A-source, query the existence of a cut-off, a little below 30 MHz, for the Non-Io emission and suggest the possibility of a single mechanism for both the Io and the Non-Io radiation.

Barrow, C. H.↗

The occurrence rate, polarization character, and intensity of broadband Jovian kilometric radiation

The paper describes the major observational features of one new component of Jupiter's radio emission spectrum, the broadband kilometer wavelength radiation, or bKOM. This study, using the Voyager Planetary Radio Astronomy (PRA) experiments, reveals that the overall occurrence morphology, dynamic spectra, and polarization character of bKOM are strong functions of the latitude and/or local time geometry of the observations. The postencounter data show a decline in the mean occurrence rates and power level of bKOM and, in particular, a depletion in the occurrence rate at those same longitudes where the detection rate is a maximum before encounter. Additionally, the polarization sense undergoes a permanent reversal in sign after encounter, whereas the time-averaged wave axial ratio and degree of polarization remain relatively unchanged. Finally, no evidence of any control by Io is found. The strong dependence of the morphology on local time suggests a source whose beam is nearly fixed relative to the Jupiter-sun line

Desch, M. D.↗

Voyager 1 encounter with the Saturnian system

The Voyager 1 Saturn flyby mission of March 1979 is reviewed, with brief discussions of its flight, trajectory, science plan formulation and telemetered data. Analytical results of such data with respect to Saturn's atmosphere, rings, icy satellites, Titan satellite atmosphere and the Saturn magnetosphere, are summarized. The Voyager science investigations comprise imaging science (ISS), infrared radiation (IRIS), photopolarimetry (PPS), ultraviolet spectroscopy (UVS), radio science (RSS), magnetic fields (MAG), plasma particles (PLS), plasma waves (PWS), planetary radio astronomy (PRA), low energy charged particles (LECP), and cosmic-ray particles (CRS).

Stone, E. C.↗

Impulsive radio discharges near Saturn

Nonthermal radio emissions from the Saturn system were first detected by the Voyager planetary radio astronomy (PRA) experiment on board Voyager 1 in January 1980. Since then emission between 100 kHz and 1 MHz from the planet, termed Saturn kilometric radiation (SKR), has been received almost continuously. A description is presented of eight characteristics which have been fairly well defined by the Voyager 1 encounter. These include a very flat broadband frequency spectrum, a period of approximately 10 h 10 min, a change in the envelope shape of episodes between pre and postencounter, an intensity population structure typical of plural populations, and an episodic structure of a width of approximately 180 deg. It was found that postencounter episodes continue for about three times as long as preencounter ones, and that postencounter bursts are left-circularly polarized at high frequencies. At least one episode shows the onset of high frequency events some time before that of lower frequency ones.

Evans, D. R.↗

Saturnian kilometric radiation - Statistical properties and beam geometry

An adequate description of the average statistical properties of Saturn's radio emissions is needed for a study of these emissions. Data regarding these properties are presented, and the implications for source location, beaming, and magnetic surface anomalies are discussed. A description is presented of the average properties of the Saturn kilometric radiation (SKR) as observed from two locations by the Voyager 1 planetary radio astronomy (PRA) instrument for a 2-month period centered on the November 12, 1980 encounter. An analysis of the occurrence pattern of SKR as a function of Saturn's rotation phase has shown that SKR occurrence is not continuous, but variable and roughly periodic. The statistical SKR properties obtained strongly constrain possible source locations. Several source locations are possible, but most intriguing is the region at high latitudes near the noon meridian.

Kaiser, M. L.↗

Saturn's electrostatic discharges - Properties and theoretical considerations

The properties of Saturn's electrostatic discharges (SED) as observed by the Voyager Planetary Radio Astronomy experiment during the two Voyager encounters with Saturn are summarized. Several models for the formation of SED are discussed in light of these observations. The most likely source regions appear to be either the equatorial zone of the planet or the dense part of the B ring near 1.80 Saturn radii. The strengths and weaknesses of each of these possibilities are examined. Neither possibility accounts fully for the observed SED properties in a simple way. A search for an anomaly near 1.80 Saturn radii in the data of other experiments aboard Voyager has been carried out, and at least one and possibly more such experiments do indeed obtain anomalous data at this point in the ring system. There thus appears to be unexplained phenomena at this point, independent of the PRA data, and it is a short step to postulate that a single object may be the cause of all such phenomena.

Evans, D. R.↗

Three-dimensional ray tracing of the Jovian magnetosphere in the low-frequency range

Three-dimensional ray tracing of the Jovian DAM emission has been performed utilizing the O-4 magnetic field model (Acuna and Ness, 1979) and a realistic plasma model. Minimal assumptions about the emission mechanism have been made that include radiation in the right-hand extraordinary mode, propagating nearly perpendicular to the field line at source points located just above the RX cutoff frequency along Io flux tubes. Ray tracing has been performed in the frequency range from 2-35 MHz from successive Io flux tubes separated by ten degrees of central meridian longitude for a full circumference of northern hemisphere sources. The results show unusual complexity in model arc spectra that is displayed in a constant Io phase format with many similarities to the Voyager PRA data. The results suggest much of the variation in observed DAM spectral features is a result of propagation effects rather than emission process differences.

Menietti, J. D.↗