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At least 253 records · Page 14

Heat Loss Correction Factor for Fireball Yield Measurements

Fireball yield calculations are performed using Taylor’s radius equation. However, at early times, the x-ray diffusion process has a significant effect on the size of the fireball, and at late times the shock wave degenerates into an acoustic wave. Thus, earlier research determined that the range of validity for Taylor’s equation was in the scaled time regime of 0.004–0.008 s. So, when performing a yield calculation, the only values that are analyzed are those that lie within that range of validity. While Taylor’s equations offer an approximation of the scaled yield, they also rely on several assumptions. For example, the equations assume that the shock wave is adiabatic, when, in fact, the first light pulse on the nuclear test films, which occurs as the shock wave is forming, suggests that the shock wave is not adiabatic. Furthermore, the amount of heat loss from the shock wave that occurs prior to the scaled time regime of 0.004–0.008 s can change significantly as a function of air density. This may cause the shock wave radius to be smaller relative to the assumed adiabatic shock wave. Therefore, the objective of this project was to determine the correction factor for heat transfer, which should be applied in order to produce a more accurate approximation of the weapon’s yield.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

Chemical and structural characterization of particulate fallout isolated from air-filters

We report particulate nuclear fallout is the radioactive byproduct of a nuclear event formed by the mixture of proximate environmental materials with vaporized bomb debris. The fallout debris can be transported into the atmosphere during cloud rise, raining out locally and dispersing globally constituting a radiation hazard and contributing to the distribution of anthropogenic radionuclides in the environment. Questions remain on how entrainment of environmental material in the fireball affects fallout formation processes and radionuclide incorporation and distribution during cooling. To inform the characterization of fallout including the development of fallout size distributions and how radionuclides are incorporated into fallout debris where entrainment plays a role, we analyzed an archived historic US air-filter collected by aircraft in the aftermath of ground interacting nuclear tests. Particulate fallout collected on the filter was isolated and analyzed using scanning electron microscopy (SEM), transmission electron microscopy (TEM) and NanoSIMS (Secondary Ion Mass Spectrometry) to determine chemistry, structure, morphology, and size of the particles. Results demonstrate that the particles isolated from the filter have spherical shape, display complex internal structures, and are mainly composed of Fe and Si oxides. In these spherical particles, Pu is preferentially associated with Fe-rich composition. The characterization of fallout particulate samples can provide information on nucleation and particle growth from the vapor phase to improve modeling and simulation of fallout hazards.

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗

Seismic Event Characterization Using Full Moment Tensors on the Hypersphere

Moment tensor solutions provide insights into the deformation that has occurred in the source region of a seismic event and are therefore of great value in identifying different types of seismic sources, such as when monitoring for underground nuclear tests. Despite this utility, inversion of waveforms recorded by seismometers for their full seismic moment tensor is not yet routine, and development of robust methods to classify events based on this information is in its infancy. Here, we assemble an inventory of 1405 full moment tensor solutions that include explosive, earthquake, and collapse events, and investigate the use of anisotropic probability distribution functions on the 5D hypersphere to discriminate between these sources. Using a Bayesian classifier, we obtain optimal success rates of 98.4% across all events and demonstrate that modification of the prior probabilities provides a natural way to alter the balance between not missing desirable events (such as explosions) versus misclassifying large numbers of undesired events (such as earthquakes). The approach is specifically designed to progress from traditional, bipolar event screening metrics to more generalized event identification across multiple types of seismic sources. Despite current databases containing insufficient numbers of events to definitively demonstrate at present, we also find intriguing evidence of subgroupings within individual source populations on the hypersphere, for example, between chemical and nuclear explosions, raising the potential possibility of discriminating between these event types in the future.

Geosciences↗

Demonstration of 151 Sm analysis using Trinity nuclear debris samples

Here, the long-lived fission product 151 Sm (T 1/2 ≈ 90 y) present in archived dissolved Trinity nuclear test debris samples was analyzed using liquid scintillation counting and the results were compared to the expected values based upon historical analysis results. The measured 151 Sm activities were found to agree with the expected values within experimental error. This demonstration validates the use of this technique in situations where the sample is too old for traditional shorter half-life radioactive fission product signatures such as 99 Mo (T 1/2 = 2.75 d), 97 Zr (T 1/2 = 16.7 h), 147 Nd (T 1/2 = 10.98 d), and 153 Sm (T 1/2 = 46.3 h), or too dilute for determining fissions through stable isotope ratio measurements.

151Sm↗

Finding of No Adverse Effect for the Façade Alteration of Building 23-117, Administration Building, Mercury, Area 23, Nevada National Security Site, Nye County, Nevada

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), National Nuclear Security Administration Nevada Field Office (NNSA/NFO) plans to update the façade of Building 23-117 in the town of Mercury (Nevada State Historic Preservation Office [SHPO] Resource No. B15256), which is on the Nevada National Security Site (NNSS) in Nye County, Nevada. The purpose of the undertaking is to incorporate Building 23-117 into the new Mercury campus in accordance with the master plan for the modernization of Mercury. The NNSA/NFO will implement this undertaking in accordance with the Programmatic Agreement between the National Nuclear Security Administration Nevada Field Office and the Nevada State Historic Preservation Officer Regarding Modernization and Operational Maintenance of the Nevada National Security Site, at Mercury in Nye County, Nevada, hereafter referred to as the Mercury PA. Building 23-117 was built in 1982 as the architect-engineer Administration Building1 for Holmes & Narver, a government contractor who helped design and engineer the town of Mercury and other areas on the NNSS from its inception until the termination of their contract in 1990. The building continued to be used by subsequent government contractors and is currently still in use by MSTS. The town of Mercury and the immediate surrounding area have been formally determined eligible for listing in the National Register of Historic Places (National Register, NRHP) as the Mercury Historic District (MHD, SHPO Resource No. D230) under Criteria A and C for its importance in supporting nuclear testing and scientific research from 1951 through 1992. Building 23-117 was identified as a contributing element to the MHD in a 2018 architectural survey of the district (Reno et al.) and recorded on a Nevada Architectural Resource Assessment (ARA) form (Reno et al. 2017). It is a historic property for the purposes of compliance with Section 106 of the National Historic Preservation Act (NHPA) and is subject to the stipulations of the Mercury PA. The NNSA/NFO requested that Desert Research Institute (DRI), cultural resource subject matter experts, analyze the effects of the proposed project on historic properties in the Area of Potential Effect (APE) and make a recommended finding for the undertaking in accordance with Section 106 of the NHPA and the Mercury PA. The purpose of this letter report is to submit documentation related to the mitigation of the façade alteration of Building 23-117 (Nevada State Historic Preservation Office [SHPO] Resource No. B15256) in the Mercury Historic District (MHD, SHPO Resource No. D230). This submission is intended to comply with the stipulations in the Programmatic Agreement between the National Nuclear Security Administration Nevada Field Office and the Nevada State Historic Preservation Officer Regarding Modernization and Operational Maintenance of the Nevada National Security Site at Mercury in Nye County, Nevada, hereafter referred to as the Mercury PA.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

CORRTEX Analysis Techniques

Continuous Reflectometry for Radius versus Time Experiments, or CORRTEX, is a diagnostic that was developed during nuclear testing to measure the distance at which rock walls were disrupted by an explosive device as a function of the time at which disruption occurred. Distances recorded are dynamic measurements of cable length as the shockwaves from an explosive event crush the experiment cables, reducing their usable length. Applications of the CORRTEX diagnostic have been expanded in recent times to include instrumentation of the explosive device itself, to record phenomena such as the speed of the detonation wave in the explosive charge and the crushing or disassembly of material in the charge housing. The diagnostic has likewise been used to monitor explosive performance in rock blasting and oil well hole-clearing activities.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Microreactor Automated Control System - Digital Twin Models and Advanced Control Systems Updates

Automation of control systems is expected to be important in the economic and safe operation of microreactors. Therefore, there is a need to develop and demonstrate automated control for microreactors, along with the development of testbeds for this purpose. This report provides updates on the status of a nonnuclear microreactor automated control system (MACS)—a real-time, hardware-in-the-loop testbed for non-nuclear testing of microreactor control system automation. A real-time hardware-in-the-loop testbed incorporates the realistic dynamics of physical systems into control system development and testing. The collaborative effort between Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) and Idaho National Laboratory (INL) resulted in the development of a prototypic microreactor plant-level digital twin that includes the reactor and a balance of plant system. Advanced control strategies were incorporated to demonstrate testing of control automation solutions. The gRPC communication protocol, which was implemented in the hardware-in-the-loop testbed by INL, was coupled to a digital twin model developed using the TRANsient Simulation Framework of Reconfigurable Models (TRANSFORM) library in Modelica. This digital twin simulation was tested with the ViBRANT hardware for realistic feedback and visual representation of control action in real time. A modular Python client structure was developed to manage functional mock-up unit-based simulation and real-time gRPC communication. Hardware-in-the-loop testing indicated that the modeled reactor—a natural-convection, molten-salt coolant loop configuration—responds well to control of drum positioning for modulation of reactor core power, as well as system-level control and downstream demand changes. Ongoing research is focused on integrating additional control algorithms that utilize data from newly included sensors within the MACS hardware testbed, as well as demonstrating and assessing the performance of the different automated control algorithms on multiple additional operational scenarios.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Projected network performance for next generation aerosol monitoring systems

Aerosol monitoring for radioactivity is a mature and proven technology. However, by improving key specifications of aerosol monitoring equipment, more samples per day can be collected and analyzed with the same minimum detectable concentrations as current systems. This work models hypothetical releases of 140 Ba and 131 I over a range of magnitudes corresponding to the inventory produced from the fission of about 100 g to 1 kiloton TNT-equivalent of 235 U. The releases occur over an entire year to incorporate the natural variability in atmospheric transport. Sampling equipment located at the 79 locations for radionuclide stations identified in the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) for the International Monitoring System are used to determine the detections of the individual releases. Alternative collection schemes in next generation equipment that collect 2, 3, or 4 samples per day, rather than the current 1 sample per day, would result in detections in many more samples at more stations with detections for a given release level. The authors posit that next generation equipment will result in increased network resilience to outages and improved source-location capability for lower yield source releases. The application of dual-detector and coincidence measurements to these systems would significantly boost sensitivity for some isotopes and would further enhance the monitoring capability.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

A stilbene–strontium iodide based radioxenon detection system for monitoring nuclear explosions

Atmospheric measurement of noble gases has been extensively used for monitoring clandestine nuclear weapon explosions for many years. The ratios of four xenon isotopes of interest ( 131 mXe, 133 mXe, 133 Xe, and 135 Xe) help in discriminating regular reactor operations from nuclear tests. A new coincidence-based detection system using stilbene and strontium iodide [SrI 2 (Eu)] for electron and photon detection respectively was developed at Oregon State University to address some of the challenges of the radioxenon systems deployed in the field such as memory effect, and poor energy resolution. Silicon photomultipliers (SiPMs) were used for sensing optical photons from all scintillation media. Real-time coincidence identification was achieved using the eight-channel digital pulse processor. The detection system was evaluated using lab check sources and Oregon State TRIGA reactor irradiated radioxenon samples. A 48-hour background coincidence spectrum was collected yielding a coincidence count rate and background rejection rate of 0.0174 ± 0.0003 counts per second (cps) and 98.9% respectively. The minimum detectable concentration (MDC) of the system was evaluated to be 0.11 ± 0.01, 0.13 ± 0.02, 0.20 ± 0.02, and 0.73 ± 0.08 for 131 mXe, 133 mXe, 133 Xe, and 135 Xe respectively. The memory effect of the detection system was found to be 0.069 ± 0.015%, which is almost a 70-fold reduction compared to traditional plastic scintillators. Here, the detection elements, custom-designed electronics, and the detector response to radioxenon are detailed in this work.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Gas transport across the low-permeability containment zone of an underground nuclear explosion

Understanding the nature of gas transport from an underground nuclear explosion (UNE) is required for evaluating the ability to detect and interpret either on-site or atmospheric signatures of noble gas radionuclides resulting from the event. We performed a pressure and chemical tracer monitoring experiment at the site of an underground nuclear test that occurred in a tunnel in Nevada to evaluate the possible modes of gas transport to the surface. The site represents a very well-contained, low gaspermeability end member for past UNEs at the Nevada National Security Site. However, there is very strong evidence that gases detected at the surface during a period of low atmospheric pressure resulted from fractures of extremely small aperture that are essentially invisible. Our analyses also suggest that gases would have easily migrated to the top of the high-permeability collapse zone following the detonation minimizing the final distance required for migration along these narrow fractures to the surface. This indicates that on-site detection of gases emanating from such low-permeability sites is feasible while standoff detection of atmospheric plumes may also be possible at local distances for sufficiently high fracture densities. Finally, our results show that gas leakage into the atmosphere also occurred directly from the tunnel portal and should be monitored in future tunnel gas sampling experiments for the purpose of better understanding relative contributions to detection of radioxenon releases via both fracture network and tunnel transport.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

127 Xe quantification method development and intercomparison exercise

Monitoring of the atmosphere for fission products ( 131m Xe, 133m Xe, 133 Xe, and 135 Xe) is performed by various laboratories to detect nuclear explosions. Quantification of 127 Xe is not routinely performed by laboratories measuring atmospheric radioxenon because it is not a fission product. 127 Xe was recently detected by a ground-based beta-gamma air monitoring system. When measured using beta-gamma coincidence detector systems, such as those in use on the International Monitoring System (IMS) of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT), 127 Xe can interfere with the quantification of fission product radioxenon due to overlap of the 127 Xe beta-gamma coincidence signatures with those of fission product radioxenon. Here, this work demonstrates quantification of 127 Xe at different laboratories with different measurement techniques. Production and purification of 127 Xe was performed by neutron activation of enriched 126 Xe. The purified 127 Xe was then split between laboratories, and detection and quantification methods were developed. At Idaho National Laboratory, a quantification method involving high purity germanium detectors was devised that included self-attenuation correction. At AWE, a beta-gamma coincidence counting method, as used in support of the IMS, was modified to enable the measurement and analysis of the 127 Xe samples. Corrections were made for self-attenuation, which showed a strong xenon volume dependency, for some coincidence signatures. The gas sample activity concentration was used as the comparison metric and it showed excellent agreement between the methods.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

Radionuclide Screening Analysis and Transport Parameters for Pahute Mesa Detonations, Nevada National Security Site

A “screening analysis” is implemented at Pahute Mesa (PM), Nevada National Security Site (NNSS), to determine subsets of the 43 radionuclides listed in the radionuclide inventory of Finnegan et al. (2016) that are of relevance or potential relevance to the hydrologic source term (HST) for assessment of radionuclide transport in groundwater. Consideration is added to how levels of contamination are defined and whether any other radionuclides not in the inventory are relevant to the HST. A model is developed to estimate a range of possible source concentrations in groundwater that account for uncertainty in partitioning into melt glass and sorption into surrounding rock of the exchange zone for the 82 PM underground nuclear tests detonated in vertical shafts. The model also accounts for the varied hydrogeochemical settings. Transport parameters needed for the screening model calculations are developed from databases for hydrogeologic units, chemistry, mineralogy, fracture spacing, fracture aperture, fracture openness, matrix porosity, bulk density, saturation, and alteration. Of key importance is consideration of diagenetic zonation of the mineralogy related to hydrothermal alteration. The screening analysis compares model results with available groundwater radiochemistry data. Consistency between screening model results and available data helps validate the model for application to all 43 radionuclides, most of which have no measurements or only non-detect measurements of concentration in groundwater. The screening analysis determines that ten radionuclides – tritium, Sr-90, I-129, Cs-137, U-232, U-233, U-234, U-238, and the total of Pu-239 and Pu-240 are relevant to the HST. Determination of relevance is primarily based on data and/or model results indicating source concentration exceeding a maximum contaminant level (MCL) out to 100 years since the time of detonation. U-238 is relevant to assessment of contamination relative to MCLs for uranium and gross alpha particle activity. Five other radionuclides – C-14, Cl-36, Tc-99, Np-237, and Pu-238 – are determined potentially relevant to the HST based on a 0.1 MCL threshold. The screening analysis recommends additional attention to the natural daughter radionuclides of the uranium series (U-238) and thorium series (Th-232) decay chains, particularly Ra-226 and Ra-228, that were not included the inventory.

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗

Comparison of source-location algorithms for atmospheric samplers

Numerous algorithms have been developed to determine the source characteristics for an atmospheric release, e.g., (Bieringer et al., 2017). This study compares three models that have been applied to the data collected by the International Monitoring System operated by the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Preparatory Commission to estimate source event parameters. Each model uses a different approach to estimate the parameters. A deterministic model uses a possible source region (PSR) approach (Ringbom et al., 2014) that is based on the correlation between predicted and measured sample values. An unnamed model developed at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (herein called BAYEST) uses a Bayesian formulation (Eslinger et al., 2019; Eslinger et al., 2020; Eslinger and Schrom, 2016). The FREAR model uses a different Bayesian formulation (De Meutter and Hoffman, 2020; De Meutter et al., 2021; Pieter De Meutter, 2021). The performance of the three source-location models is evaluated with 100 synthetic release cases for the single xenon isotope, 133 Xe. The release cases resulted in detections in a fictitious network with 120 noble gas samplers. All three source-location models use the same sampling data. The two Bayesian models yield more accurate location estimates than the deterministic PSR model, with FREAR having slightly better location performance than BAYEST. Samplers with collection periods of 3, 6, 8, 12, and 24-h were used. Results from BAYEST show that location accuracy improves with each reduction in sample collection length. The BAYEST model is slightly better for estimating the start time of the release. The PSR model has about the same spread in start times as the FREAR model, but the PSR results have a better average start time. The Bayesian source-location algorithms give more accurate results than the PSR approach, and provide release magnitude estimates, while the base PSR model does not estimate the release magnitude. This investigation demonstrates that a reasonably dense sampling grid will sometimes yield poor location and time estimates regardless of the model. The poor estimates generally coincide with cases where there is a much larger distance between the release point and the first detecting sampler than the average sampler spacing.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

Updates to the Regional Seismic Travel Time (RSTT) Model: 1. Tomography

Abstract A function of global monitoring of nuclear explosions is the development of Earth models for predicting seismic travel times for more accurate calculation of event locations. Most monitoring agencies rely on fast, distance-dependent one-dimensional (1D) Earth models to calculate seismic event locations quickly and in near real-time. RSTT (Regional Seismic Travel Time) is a seismic velocity model and computer software package that captures the major effects of three-dimensional crust and upper mantle structure on regional seismic travel times, while still allowing for fast prediction speed (milliseconds). We describe updates to the RSTT model using a refined data set of regional phases (i.e., Pn, Pg, Sn, Lg) using the Bayesloc relative relocation algorithm. The tomographic inversion shown here acts to refine the previous RSTT public model ( rstt201404um ) and displays significant features related to areas of global tectonic complexity as well as further reduction in arrival residual values. Validation of the updated RSTT model demonstrates significant reduction in median epicenter mislocation (15.3 km) using all regional phases compared to the iasp91 1D model (22.1 km) as well as to the current station correction approach used at the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization International Data Centre (18.9 km).

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Updates to the Regional Seismic Travel Time (RSTT) Model: 2. Path-dependent Travel-time Uncertainty

Abstract The regional seismic travel time (RSTT) model and software were developed to improve travel-time prediction accuracy by accounting for three-dimensional crust and upper mantle structure. Travel-time uncertainty estimates are used in the process of associating seismic phases to events and to accurately calculate location uncertainty bounds (i.e. event location error ellipses). We improve on the current distance-dependent uncertainty parameterization for RSTT using a random effects model to estimate slowness (inverse velocity) uncertainty as a mean squared error for each model parameter. The random effects model separates the error between observed slowness and model predicted slowness into bias and random components. The path-specific travel-time uncertainty is calculated by integrating these mean squared errors along a seismic-phase ray path. We demonstrate that event location error ellipses computed for a 90% coverage ellipse metric (used by the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization International Data Centre (IDC)), and using the path-specific travel-time uncertainty approach, are more representative (median 82.5% ellipse percentage) of true location error than error ellipses computed using distance-dependent travel-time uncertainties (median 70.1%). We also demonstrate measurable improvement in location uncertainties using the RSTT method compared to the current station correction approach used at the IDC (median 74.3% coverage ellipse).

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Impact of environmental backgrounds on atmospheric monitoring of nuclear explosions

Radionuclide monitoring for nuclear explosions includes measuring radioactive aerosol and noble gas concentrations in the atmosphere. The International Monitoring System (IMS) of the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) has made such measurements for decades, revealing much about how atmospheric radioactivity impacts the sensitivity of the network. For example, civilian emissions of radioiodine make a substantial regional impact, but a minor global impact, while civilian radioxenon emissions create major regional and complex global impacts. This example statement is strongly influenced by the minimum signal level anticipated to be interesting. The original design of the IMS anticipated relatively large signal levels, and the accomplished IMS network substantially meets or exceeds the sensitivity needed to detect those signal levels. Much lower signal levels can be motivated, which could require reconsideration of station sensitivity. Using measured and simulated background concentrations, various possible desired signal levels, and an innovative anomaly threshold, maps of sensitivity and a station ranking are developed for current and future stations. These provide a strong motivation for additional experimentation to learn about sources and the potential plusses of new technology.

Eslinger, Paul W.↗

Iodine effective diffusion coefficients through volcanic rock: Influence of iodine speciation and rock geochemistry

Accurate prediction of the subsurface transport of iodine species is important for the assessment of long-term nuclear waste repository performance, as well as monitoring compliance with the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty, given that radioiodine decays into radioxenon. However, the transport of iodine through intact geologic media is not well understood, compromising our ability to assess risk associated with radioiodine migration. The current study's goal is to quantify the matrix diffusion of iodine species through saturated volcanic rock, with particular attention paid to the redox environment and potential speciation changes. Here, diffusion experiments were run for iodide through lithophysae-rich lava, lithophysae-poor lava, and welded tuff, whereas iodate diffusion was studied through welded tuff. Iodine transport was compared with a conservative tracer, HDO, and effective diffusion coefficients were calculated. Likely due to a combination of size and anion exclusion effects, iodine species diffused more slowly than the conservative tracer through all rock types tested. Furthermore, oxidation of iodide to iodate was observed in the lithophysae-poor lava, affecting transport. Results provide much needed data for subsurface transport models that predict radioiodine migration from underground sources, and indicate the pressing need for geochemical and redox interactions to be incorporated into these models.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗