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At least 253 records · Page 14

Visualizing a Vulnerability: Its Connections to Hardware and Software

All Hazards Analysis (AHA) is a framework developed by Idaho National Laboratory that provides capabilities to collect, store, analyze, and visualize critical infrastructure information. A core function of AHA is its ability to simulate faults or outages in networks of infrastructure originating from a plethora of causes, ranging from natural disasters to cyberattacks. AHA utilizes Hardware and Software Bills of Material (HBOM and SBOM, respectively) along with Known Exploited Vulnerabilities (KEVs) to document the potential attack vectors for each piece of infrastructure. The objective of this contribution to AHA was to create a visualization tool that could capture the small details held in each individual artifact as well as preserve the large-scale connections that link them together to aid threat modeling.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Application of Banking Scoring and Rating for Coherent Risk Measures in Electricity Systems ABSCORES

This project developed a framework for asset and system risk management that can be incorporated into current electricity system operations to improve economic efficiency and establish an Electric Assets Risk Bureau. We leveraged scoring and ratings from banking and financial institutions alongside current optimization methods in dispatching power systems to help system operators and electricity markets schedule resources. This approach is based on the observation that there are major discrepancies between the power scheduled by a system operator and the actual power generated/consumed. These discrepancies—exacerbated by unplanned contingencies (e.g., natural disasters)—are caused by multiple factors, including the different financial, environmental and risk preferences of power producers, consumers, and aggregators. We developed a framework that counteracts two failures in electricity system operations: imperfect information and missing markets for products. The technical approach included five tasks. Tasks 1 and 2 supported the development of risk scores at the asset level with historical data collected for this project. Tasks 3, 4, and 5 incorporated scoring into decision-making at the system level. The proposed effort achieved PERFORM's Program Objectives because the proposed outputs and algorithms do not exist in the electricity industry and are an innovative approach to managing risk. Since the acknowledged need to better assess and act upon risk profiles for grid assets has not been met by the industry, this project will also impact ARPA-E's Mission Areas, including improving energy efficiency and giving the U.S. a technological lead in advanced energy technologies.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Water Security: Trends, Capabilities, and Research Directions to Secure Water Infrastructure

Water and wastewater sector is target rich and resource poor ~153k water utilities, serve 80% of US population ~16k publicly-owned wastewater systems in the US serve 75% of the population Need scalable solutions to fit small and medium to large systems Federal attention to critical infrastructure continues to grow – particularly in the water sector Increase in water sector incidents and threats for large scale disruption – particularly by nation-state actors and their proxies EPA is the SRMA DHS CISA focuses on critical infrastructure protection across sectors They must work together to secure WWW systems Research capabilities to enable secure water systems Current and future threats Resilience – natural disasters, accidents, cyber-physical attacks

99 - GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Webinar: Modular Nuclear Power: The Microreactor Revolution

Many times smaller than traditional nuclear reactors, microreactors can be made in a factory and shipped wherever needed. This innovative approach to energy production has huge potential to bring electricity to remote areas, support regions affected by natural disasters, and provide right-sized, scalable power to our energy grid. Learn what they are, how they work, and their benefits in this webinar, featuring Piyush Sabharwall, distinguished staff nuclear research scientist and technical area lead for the DOE Office of Nuclear Energy's Microreactor R&D Program at Idaho National Laboratory.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Personal Resiliency Index

A plethora of information exists in literature focusing on different aspects of personal resilience. There are a number of questionnaires available to measure resilience in different aspects of an individual’s life, such as mental health. However, there is a lack of comprehensive information on the subject of personal resilience to natural and man-made disasters. A Personal Resiliency Index identifying four key areas of resilience related to natural and man-made disasters will help fill this gap by providing individuals an idea of where the stand comparatively to their peers on this topics. As an increasing amount of man-made disasters, natural disasters and pandemics occur, we realize that preparation is key.?“Crisis can be experienced at individual, group and mass levels and at local, regional, national or supra-national levels.” 1? Dr. Ron Fisher, the principal investigator has over 20 years’ critical infrastructure protection including developing vulnerability assessment methodology, risk and resiliency analyses and infrastructure interdependencies. Dr. Fisher and his team will research and develop a voluntary survey which evaluates the user’s personal resilience level to natural and man-made disasters. The research team is focusing on 4 main categories:? financial resilience, cyber security, physical and mental health, and emergency preparedness.?The web based application will?provide a resilience score for each of the categories and also a comprehensive personal resiliency score based on the voluntary survey. The application will also provide feedback to the user on actions to take to become more resilient to natural and man-made disasters. Through this effort, we will also be able to identify the areas where participants are excelling as well as opportunities for improvement in terms of resilience. This information will provide insight into areas of further investigation and identify potential areas of support needed for the general public to adopt strategies to become more resilient. 1 Lynott, William. “Surviving a Natural (or Man-Made) Disaster: How to Prepare for and Bounce Back? from a Crisis in Your Business | 2018-02-01 | NOLN.” Home Page, NOLN, 1 Feb. 2018, https://www.noln.net/articles/2683-surviving-a-natural-or-man-made-disaster-how-to-prepare-for-and-bounce-back-from-a-crisis-in-your-business.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Collaborative Platforms Aid Emergency Decision Making

Terra. Aqua. Cloudsat. Landsat. NASA runs and partners in many missions dedicated to monitoring the Earth, and the tools used in these missions continuously return data on everything from shifts in temperature to cloud formation to pollution levels over highways. The data are of great scientific value, but they also provide information that can play a critical role in decision making during times of crisis. Real-time developments in weather, wind, ocean currents, and numerous other conditions can have a significant impact on the way disasters, both natural and human-caused, unfold. "NASA has long recognized the need to make its data from real-time sources compatible and accessible for the purposes of decision making," says Michael Goodman, who was Disasters Program manager at NASA Headquarters from 2009-2012. "There are practical applications of NASA Earth science data, and we d like to accelerate the use of those applications." One of the main obstacles standing in the way of eminently practical data is the fact that the data from different missions are collected, formatted, and stored in different ways. Combining data sets in a way that makes them useful for decision makers has proven to be a difficult task. And while the need for a collaborative platform is widely recognized, very few have successfully made it work. Dave Jones, founder and CEO of StormCenter Communications Inc., which consults with decision makers to prepare for emergencies, says that "when I talk to public authorities, they say, If I had a nickel for every time someone told me they had a common operating platform, I d be rich. But one thing we ve seen over the years is that no one has been able to give end users the ability to ingest NASA data sets and merge them with their own."

Source record↗

Operations Concept for Responding to Urgent Requests for NASA-ISRO Synthetic Aperture Radar (NISAR)

The NASA-ISRO Synthetic Aperture Radar, or NISAR, mission is an Earth-mapping radar observatory to be launched from Sriharikota (India) in 2022. This mission is a collaboration between the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and the Indian Space Research Organization (ISRO). This spacecraft will carry two instruments that will operate at radar wavelengths (L and Sband) and will provide data for understanding changes in the Earth’s land surface. The scientific data from this mission will revolutionize our understanding of the causes and consequences of land surface changes on Earth, ranging from Solid Earth Deformation in the form of natural hazards like earthquakes, volcanic eruptions and landslides, to ecosystem disturbances, to changes in the cryosphere (measurements of polar ice caps, ice sheets and sea ice). A nominal Reference Observation Plan, that repeats roughly every 12-24 days, developed prior to launch by the NISAR Mission Planning team, in consultation with the Science Team, will form the basis of science data collection by the payload instruments onboard the NISAR observatory after launch. Scheduling of science observations for the mission requires accounting for limited spacecraft resources like onboard data storage, downlink capacity, energy/power, thermal limits and instrument duty cycles. In addition to nominal science data collection, the project has a Level 1 requirement to respond to requests for urgent data acquisition over disaster sites (natural or anthropogenic) by scheduling new acquisitions within 24 hrs of notification and delivering science data within 5 hours of data acquisition. This capability is to be exercised on a ‘best-efforts basis’. While the definition of what constitutes an ‘urgent request’, and how such requests would be submitted to the project, is within the domain of the Science Team, the Mission System team is responsible for developing the baseline operations concept and implementation approach for responding to such requests. Given the ‘best-efforts’ nature of this requirement, a few highlevel guidelines have been developed to help guide the formulation of the operations concept, and are presented in this paper. Requests for urgent response data will be accommodated following the guiding principle of minimal to no impact on nominal science and planned engineering activities. No change in satellite orbit or attitude will be made for urgent response. Restricting response approaches to only changing the downlink and/or ground processing priority for existing observations, and adding new observations only in areas where NISAR will not be nominally imaging, allows for minimal impact on the Reference science Observation Plan. No instrument mode changes will be allowed for urgent response (except for high-priority requests), and no new observations that impact either planned science or engineering activities will be scheduled. Additionally, data requests must fit within the available project resource margins (both spacecraft and ground resources are to be evaluated). Both JPL and ISRO will be involved at various steps of the implementation, irrespective of whether the urgent request is for L-SAR (NASA instrument) or S-SAR (ISRO instrument) or a joint dataset.

Sharma, Priyanka↗

Linkages between riverine flooding risk and economic damage over the continental United States

Economic damages from riverine flooding are expected to grow because of climate change. Yet, there are few 7 studies analyzing flooding damages in the U.S. that clearly measure the roles of hazard, exposure, and vulnerability 8 separately and locally. A lack of this knowledge prohibits spatially detailed predictions of future damages. By being 9 able to separate into these three risk factors, we provide all necessary inputs for uncertainty analysis of the flooding-10 damages forecasts that can incorporate new predictive scenarios for each component. To analyze the flooding risk 11 factors of non-coastal counties within the contiguous U.S. between 1999-2018, we gathered information on (1) 12 property and human damages from flooding, (2) maximum annual river discharge, (3) the number of housing units 13 and the years in which they were built, and (4) the incidence of flooding events. We used the method of trimmed 14 least absolute deviated and trimmed least square estimators to obtain the individual impact of hazard, exposure, and 15 vulnerability in the context of censored flooding damages for panel data. The resulting estimates indicate that 16 exposure has been the main driver of flooding risk for most counties in the U.S. Here, we use these estimates to describe 17 the main source of flooding risk for non-coastal counties for the 1999-2018 period.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Exploring acute weather resilience: Meeting resilience and renewable goals

We report the United States is affected by an average of almost seven severe weather events a year, often resulting in billions of dollars in physical and economic damages, a subset of which are related to grid outages. There is a need for power and energy system stakeholders to better understand and implement the strategies that help reduce net-economic and societal consequences associated with grid outages by improving the resilience of their systems. In addition, there are incentives to reduce emissions and meet climate goals, several pathways of which include resilient technologies. Including resilience constraints and metrics in energy system planning models may help inform the design of more resilient systems that are also more renewable and sustainable. This paper reviews qualitative definitions of resilience, quantitative approaches to resilience, recent examples of the inclusion of resilience in energy system models with respect to acute climatological threats, and the gaps in fully articulating resilience in current modeling tools. We then outline steps to effectively improve resilience considerations against such threats into energy sector modeling tools. Based on the findings, the authors propose a novel framework for energy system resilience assessment and future areas of research to bridge the current modeling gaps.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Life Cycle Cost Analysis of Prestressed Concrete Poles Subjected to Wind, Surges, and Waves

Prestressed concrete (PC) poles are becoming popular choices to support coastal power transmission systems. However, the existing literature does not offer a detailed analysis of the effectiveness of PC poles in terms of long-term vulnerabilities and the direct and indirect costs. This is due to (1) lack of fragility models for PC poles and (2) lack of probabilistic wind, storm surge, and wave models in coastal settings. In this study, we address these gaps through a series of Monte Carlo simulations to estimate fragility of PC poles as a function of age and hazard (wind, surges, and waves) intensity, and the development of a probabilistic hazard model based on 10,000 years of synthetic tropical cyclone data. The probabilistic hazard model is used in conjunction with high-resolution hydrodynamic models to generate realizations of coastal wind, storm surges, and waves for the Louisiana and Mississippi coasts. A comprehensive life cycle cost analysis for a service life of 70 years considering direct and indirect losses is conducted to compare the performance of a transmission line located in Pascagoula, Mississippi, when wood poles are replaced by PC poles. Results showed that aging has a minor effect on the reliability of PC poles, highlighting the advantages of replacing wood poles with PC poles, especially in coastal areas. In addition, PC poles are significantly more cost-effective compared with wood poles over their life cycle, leading to an estimated saving of $11.55 million (68.17% reduction). The results of this study provide key insight to inform decision-making processes to keep the coastal power grids resilient and cost-effective against future storm hazards.

natural disasters↗

Graph theory and nighttime imagery based microgrid design

Reducing the duration and frequency of blackouts in remote communities poses an engineering challenge for grid operators. Outage effects can also be mitigated locally through microgrids. This paper develops a systematic procedure to account for these challenges by creating microgrids prioritizing high value assets within vulnerable communities. Nighttime satellite imagery is used to identify vulnerable communities. Using an asset classification and rating system, multi-asset clusters within these communities are prioritized. Infrastructure data, geographic information systems, satellite imagery, and spectral clustering are used to form and rank microgrid candidates. A microgrid sizing algorithm is included to guide through the microgrid design process. Finally, an application of the methodology is presented using real event, location, and asset data.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Mitigating Cascading Outages in Severe Weather Using Simulation-Based Optimization

Severe weather events can trigger cascading power outages and lead to significant losses. In this work, we investigate cascading outage mitigation under severe weather conditions. Given day-ahead weather forecasts and component failure models, we aim to identify a set of power lines that can be hardened to minimize the expected impact of potential cascading outages. Since the expected load shedding cannot be expressed as an explicit function of line hardening decisions and system states, we developed a cascading outage simulator to estimate the expected value of load shedding under various initial weather-related disruption scenarios generated using a weather forecast. To avoid massive enumeration of all possible combinations of line hardening decisions and reduce the simulation efforts, we employed an efficient simulation-based optimization approach that quickly identifies the (near) optimal line hardening decisions in the presence of both large simulation noises due to the highly variable initial disturbances and system states, and significant randomness in the subsequent cascades. Furthermore, the algorithm is also able to utilize parallel computing to dramatically reduce computation time to support decision making in preparation for severe weather conditions. We performed a case study on the Northeast Power Coordinating Council (NPCC) 140-bus system model to demonstrate that our approach can significantly improve power grid resilience to adverse weather events.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Florida Alternative Transportation Fuel Resilience Plan

Hurricanes are increasing in frequency, intensity, duration, and are projected to continue increasing. Many counties and cities in Florida are developing resilience plans to help them minimize damage from hurricanes and accelerate recovery. The transportation portion of these plans tend to focus on bolstering road infrastructure, stockpiling diesel for strategic fleets, purchasing high-water vehicles, and placing evacuation shelters in safe areas. An Achilles heel of these plans is their dependence on diesel fuel, which is particularly vulnerable to hurricane-related disruptions since 90% of petroleum in Florida needs to be imported via maritime tanker. These tankers are restricted from accessing Florida ports before and during hurricanes because the risks of damage to the port facilities and tanker are too high. Therefore, transportation resilience can be fortified by diversifying the transportation fuels utilized in a hurricane.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Advancing Electric System Resilience with Distributed Energy Resources: A Review of State Policies

Severe weather, cyber-attacks, geomagnetic disturbances, and other hazards and threats have caused or have the potential to cause substantial levels of damage to electricity infrastructure and the global economy. Growth in distributed energy resources (DERs) and increasing attention to the resilience of the electric grid - its ability to "anticipate, absorb, adapt to, and/or rapidly recover" from disruptions, according to the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC, 2018) - have created an opportunity for energy stakeholders to develop and deploy "resilient DERs," resources in the distribution grid that improve the ability of a customer, critical facility, and/or the distribution system in general to anticipate, absorb, adapt to, and/or rapidly recover from disruptions. This paper explores how existing state regulations intersect with resilience and highlights opportunities where state regulators can employ DERs to advance resilience.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Resilience Metrics Framework for Solar Photovoltaics

This presentation was given at the Photovoltaic Specialist Conference (PVSC) 54 in New Orleans, Louisiana. Photovoltaic (PV) systems are routinely exposed to extreme weather, including wind and hail storms. Historically, most systems have proven to be resilient to such events, but some storms have damaged PV systems, leading to physical and financial loss. Storm hardening measures and specific system attributes can reduce this risk. This work introduces a set of resilience metrics and a framework for quantifying, comparing, and predicting PV system resilience. The framework is divided into two parts: 1) predictive, attribute metrics based on site and component characteristics, and 2) impact metrics that assess post-storm performance. Metrics are weighted and aggregated, producing hazard-specific resilience scores. We derive damage functions from storm-impacted PV systems, establishing a baseline against which post-storm performance can be compared. This damage was widely variable across hail and wind intensities, and field hail damage was less than predicted by laboratory tests, suggesting that system features - in addition to storm conditions - influence damage likelihood. Finally, the metrics framework is demonstrated using three case studies of storm damaged PV systems. Although additional data are needed to create attribute specific damage functions and establish metric weights, this study presents a methodology for evaluating PV resilience and contributes new damage functions to the literature.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Large space systems in global change mitigation

The monitoring from space of such processes as the greenhouse effect and depletion of the ozone layer is discussed, as well as possibilities for active intervention in them, using space systems. Possibilities include the use of the Solar Power Satellite to reduce dependence on the burning of fossil fuels, dispersal of materials to neutralize chemicals responsible for ozone depletion, and measures to reduce the impact of local disasters, both natural and man-made.

Jenkins, Lyle M.↗

The impact crater as a habitat: effects of impact processing of target materials

Impact structures are a rare habitat on Earth. However, where they do occur they can potentially have an important influence on the local ecology. Some of the types of habitat created in the immediate post-impact environment are not specific to the impact phenomenon, such as hydrothermal systems and crater lakes that can be found, for instance, in post-volcanic environments, albeit with different thermal characteristics than those associated with impact. However, some of the habitats created are specifically linked to processes of impact processing. Two examples of how impact processing of target materials has created novel habitats that improve the opportunities for colonization are found in the Haughton impact structure in the Canadian High Arctic. Impact-shocked rocks have become a habitat for endolithic microorganisms, and large, impact-shattered blocks of rock are used as resting sites by avifauna. However, some materials produced by an impact, such as melt sheet rocks, can make craters more biologically depauperate than the area surrounding them. Although there are no recent craters with which to study immediate post-impact colonization, these data yield insights into generalized mechanisms of how impact processing can influence post-impact succession. Because impact events are one of a number of processes that can bring localized destruction to ecosystems, understanding the manner in which impact structures are recolonized is of ecological interest. Impact craters are a universal phenomenon on solid planetary surfaces, and so they are of potential biological relevance on other planetary surfaces, particularly Mars.

Environment↗

Extinction from a paleontological perspective

Extinction of widespread species is common in evolutionary time (millions of years) but rare in ecological time (hundreds or thousands of years). In the fossil record, there appears to be a smooth continuum between background and mass extinction; and the clustering of extinctions at mass extinctions cannot be explained by the chance coincidence of independent events. Although some extinction is selective, much is apparently random in that survivors have no recognizable superiority over victims. Extinction certainly plays an important role in evolution, but whether it is constructive or destructive has not yet been determined.

Review↗