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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1994

Image Discrimination Models Predict Object Detection in Natural Backgrounds

Object detection involves looking for one of a large set of object sub-images in a large set of background images. Image discrimination models only predict the probability that an observer will detect a difference between two images. In a recent study based on only six different images, we found that discrimination models can predict the relative detectability of objects in those images, suggesting that these simpler models may be useful in some object detection applications. Here we replicate this result using a new, larger set of images. Fifteen images of a vehicle in an other-wise natural setting were altered to remove the vehicle and mixed with the original image in a proportion chosen to make the target neither perfectly recognizable nor unrecognizable. The target was also rotated about a vertical axis through its center and mixed with the background. Sixteen observers rated these 30 target images and the 15 background-only images for the presence of a vehicle. The likelihoods of the observer responses were computed from a Thurstone scaling model with the assumption that the detectabilities are proportional to the predictions of an image discrimination model. Three image discrimination models were used: a cortex transform model, a single channel model with a contrast sensitivity function filter, and the Root-Mean-Square (RMS) difference of the digital target and background-only images. As in the previous study, the cortex transform model performed best; the RMS difference predictor was second best; and last, but still a reasonable predictor, was the single channel model. Image discrimination models can predict the relative detectabilities of objects in natural backgrounds.

Ahumada, Albert J., Jr.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Biocontainment of Genetically Engineered Algae

Algae (including eukaryotic microalgae and cyanobacteria) have been genetically engineered to convert light and carbon dioxide to many industrially and commercially relevant chemicals including biofuels, materials, and nutritional products. At industrial scale, genetically engineered algae may be cultivated outdoors in open ponds or in closed photobioreactors. In either case, industry would need to address a potential risk of the release of the engineered algae into the natural environment, resulting in potential negative impacts to the environment. Genetic biocontainment strategies are therefore under development to reduce the probability that these engineered bacteria can survive outside of the laboratory or industrial setting. These include active strategies that aim to kill the escaped cells by expression of toxic proteins, and passive strategies that use knockouts of native genes to reduce fitness outside of the controlled environment of labs and industrial cultivation systems. Several biocontainment strategies have demonstrated escape frequencies below detection limits. However, they have typically done so in carefully controlled experiments which may fail to capture mechanisms of escape that may arise in the more complex natural environment. The selection of biocontainment strategies that can effectively kill cells outside the lab, while maintaining maximum productivity inside the lab and without the need for relatively expensive chemicals will benefit from further attention.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Resilience of electric utilities during the COVID-19 pandemic in the framework of the CIGRE definition of Power System Resilience

Resilience is a vital concept in engineering, business, and natural sciences, and is a measure of the ability of an entity to withstand High Impact Low Probability (HILP) events. During the COVID-19 pandemic, which started in late 2019/early 2020, power system utilities around the globe have responded in effective and efficient ways to enhance the resilience of their organisations, both in terms of real-time operations and prudent management of its infrastructure, in order to continue their mandate in providing reliable supply to meet customer demands. Here, this paper presents the CIGRE definition for power system resilience, established by the C4.47 Working Group in 2018, and demonstrates the application of resilience-oriented thinking within the electrical sector. The response and recovery efforts are described, with respect to the key actionable measures integral to the power system resilience definition, taken before, during and after the COVID-19 pandemic. A practical conceptual framework is also presented for thinking about resilience in terms of three key components of resilience strategies: organisational, infrastructure and operational resilience. The paper also discusses the different strategies adopted in response to COVID-19, based on the C4.47 members’ experiences during the pandemic. Finally, a case study is presented, which proves the effectiveness of a set of response measures, using graph theory and the characteristics of the staff-asset interactions.

42 ENGINEERING↗
NASA NTRS1973

VLS /vapor-liquid-solid/ - Newly discovered growth mechanism on the lunar surface.

A probable vapor-liquid-solid (VLS) type of growth has been discovered for the first time in nature on the surface of lunar rock 15015. Scanning electron microprobe and energy dispersive x-ray data indicate that the growth occurs as metallic iron stalks from about 0.015 to 0.15 micrometer in diameter, with bulbous tips consisting of a mixture of iron and sulfur and measuring from about 0.03 to 0.2 micrometer in diameter. The stalk length is two to ten times the bulb diameter.

Carter, J. L.↗
NASA NTRS1977

Limitations to growth of microorganisms on Uranus, Neptune, and Titan

Reappraisal of the probabilistic policy toward planetary contamination by terrestrial microorganisms carried aboard space probes is suggested on the grounds that assignment of numerical probabilities to qualitatively unknown phenomena, as expressed in Phillips's (1974) formulation of the probability of contamination, is inappropriate. As an alternative, it is proposed that fundamental knowledge of the interacting nature of life on earth, interrelations between terrestrial organisms, and continuing effects of these organisms on earth's atmosphere and surface should guide the formulation of a sounder scientific quarantine policy. Simple conservative atmospheric models most favorable for life on Uranus and Neptune are examined. It is concluded that terrestrial microorganisms will not grow on either planet due to limitations of liquid water, atmospheric convection to lethal depths, the absence of energy sources and nutrients, the presence of ammonia and hydrogen, insufficient concentrations of biologically necessary ions, and the lack of a surface. The likelihood of terrestrial microorganism growth on Titan is found to be vanishingly small.

Margulis, L.↗
NASA NTRS1983

Microcircuit radiation effects databank

Radiation test data submitted by many testers is collated to serve as a reference for engineers who are concerned with and have some knowledge of the effects of the natural radiation environment on microcircuits. Total dose damage information and single event upset cross sections, i.e., the probability of a soft error (bit flip) or of a hard error (latchup) are presented.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS1988

Sulfur speciation in hydrous experimental glasses of varying oxidation state - Results from measured wavelength shifts of sulfur X-rays

The focusing geometry of an electron microprobe has been used to measure the wavelength shifts of sulfur X-rays from hydrous experimental melts synthesized at oxygen fugacities that range from near the iron-wustite buffer to the magnetite-hermatite buffer. It is found that the proportion of dissolved sulfur which is present as sulfate increases with increasing oxygen fugacity. It is noted that in natural melts that have equilibrated at or below fayalite-magnetite-quartz values of +1, sulfur is probably present mainly as S(2-).

Carroll, Michael R.↗
NASA NTRS1996

Reliability, Risk and Cost Trade-Offs for Composite Designs

Risk and cost trade-offs have been simulated using a probabilistic method. The probabilistic method accounts for all naturally-occurring uncertainties including those in constituent material properties, fabrication variables, structure geometry and loading conditions. The probability density function of first buckling load for a set of uncertain variables is computed. The probabilistic sensitivity factors of uncertain variables to the first buckling load is calculated. The reliability-based cost for a composite fuselage panel is defined and minimized with respect to requisite design parameters. The optimization is achieved by solving a system of nonlinear algebraic equations whose coefficients are functions of probabilistic sensitivity factors. With optimum design parameters such as the mean and coefficient of variation (representing range of scatter) of uncertain variables, the most efficient and economical manufacturing procedure can be selected. In this paper, optimum values of the requisite design parameters for a predetermined cost due to failure occurrence are computationally determined. The results for the fuselage panel analysis show that the higher the cost due to failure occurrence, the smaller the optimum coefficient of variation of fiber modulus (design parameter) in longitudinal direction.

Shiao, Michael C.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Climate Impacts on Tropospheric Ozone and Hydroxyl

Climate change may influence tropospheric ozone and OH via several main pathways: (1) altering chemistry via temperature and humidity changes, (2) changing ozone and precursor sources via surface emissions, stratosphere-troposphere exchange, and light- ning, and (3) affecting trace gas sinks via the hydrological cycle and dry deposition. We report results from a set of coupled chemistry-climate model simulations designed to systematically study these effects. We compare the various effects with one another and with past and projected future changes in anthropogenic and natural emissions of ozone precursors. We find that white the overall impact of climate on ozone is probably small compared to emission changes, some significant seasonal and regional effects are apparent. The global effect on hydroxyl is quite large, however, similar in size to the effect of emission changes. Additionally, we show that many of the chemistry-climate links that are not yet adequately modeled are potentially important.

Shindell, Drew T.↗
NASA NTRS2009

Satellite Contributions to Global Change Studies

By providing a global view with a level playing field (no region missed because of unfavorable surface conditions or political boundaries), satellites have made major contributions to improved monitoring and understanding of our constantly changing planet. The global view has allowed surprising realizations like the relative sparsity of lightning strikes over oceans and the large-scale undulations on the massive Antarctic ice sheet. It has allowed the tracking of all sorts of phenomena, including aerosols, both natural and anthropogenic, as they move with the atmospheric circulation and impact weather and human health. But probably nothing that the global view allows is more important in the long term than its provision. of unbiased data sets to address the issue of global change, considered by many to be among the most important issues facing humankind today. With satellites we can monitor atmospheric temperatures at all latitudes and longitudes, and obtain a global average that lessens the likelihood of becoming endlessly mired in the confusions brought about by the certainty of regional differences. With satellites we can monitor greenhouse gases such as CO2 not just above individual research stations but around the globe. With satellites we can monitor the polar sea ice covers, as we have done since the late 1970s, determining and quantifying the significant reduction in Arctic sea ice and the slight growth in Antarctic sea ice over that period, With satellites we can map the full extent and changes in the Antarctic stratospheric ozone depletions that were first identified from using a single ground station; and through satellite data we have witnessed from afar land surface changes brought about by humans both intentionally, as with wide-scale deforestation, and unintentionally, as with the decay of the Aral Sea. The satellite data are far from sufficient for all that we need in order to understand the global system and forecast its changes, as we also need sophisticated climate models, in situ process studies, and data sets that extend back well before the introduction of satellite technology. Nonetheless, the repetitive, global view provided by satellites is contributing in a major way to our improved recognition of how the Earth im changing, a recognition that is none too soon in view of the magnitude of the impacts that humans can now have.

Parkinson, Claire L.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) Quarterly Report

By providing a global view with a level playing field (no region missed because of unfavorable surface conditions or political boundaries), satellites have made major contributions to improved monitoring and understanding of our constantly changing planet. The global view has allowed surprising realizations like the relative sparsity of lightning strikes over oceans and the large-scale undulations on the massive Antarctic ice sheet. It has allowed the tracking of all sorts of phenomena, including aerosols, both natural and anthropogenic,as they move with the atmospheric circulation and impact weather and human health. But probably nothing that the global view allows is more important in the long term than its provision of unbiased data sets to address the issue of global change, considered by many to be among the most important issues facing humankind today. With satellites we can monitor atmospheric temperatures at all latitudes and longitudes, and obtain a global average that lessens the likelihood of becoming endlessly mired in the confusions brought about by the certainty of regional differences. With satellites we can monitor greenhouse gases such as CO2 not just above individual research stations but around the globe. With satellites we can monitor the polar sea ice covers, as we have done since the late 1970s, determining and quantifying the significant reduction in Arctic sea ice and the slight growth in Antarctic sea ice over that period. With satellites we can map the full extent and changes in the Antarctic stratospheric ozone depletions that were first identified from a single ground station; and through satellite data we have witnessed from afar land surface changes brought about by humans both intentionally, as with wide-scale deforestation, and unintentionally, as with the decay of the Aral Sea. The satellite data are far from sufficient for all that we need in order to understand the global system and forecast its changes, as we also need sophisticated climate models, in situ process studies, and data sets that extend back well before the introduction of satellite technology. Nuomthc)cmm, the repetitive, global view provided by satellites is contributing in a major way to our improved recognition of how the Earth is changing, a recognition that is none too soon in view of the magnitude of the impacts that humans can now have.

Bauman, William↗
NASA NTRS2014

Analyzing the Impacts of Natural Environments on Launch and Landing Availability for NASA's Eploration Systems Development Programs

NASA is developing new capabilities for human and scientific exploration beyond Earth orbit. Natural environments information is an important asset for NASA's development of the next generation space transportation system as part of the Exploration Systems Development Program, which includes the Space Launch System (SLS) and MultiPurpose Crew Vehicle (MPCV) Programs. Natural terrestrial environment conditions - such as wind, lightning and sea states - can affect vehicle safety and performance during multiple mission phases ranging from prelaunch ground processing to landing and recovery operations, including all potential abort scenarios. Space vehicles are particularly sensitive to these environments during the launch/ascent and the entry/landing phases of mission operations. The Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) Natural Environments Branch provides engineering design support for NASA space vehicle projects and programs by providing design engineers and mission planners with natural environments definitions as well as performing custom analyses to help characterize the impacts the natural environment may have on vehicle performance. One such analysis involves assessing the impact of natural environments to operational availability. Climatological time series of operational surface weather observations are used to calculate probabilities of meeting or exceeding various sets of hypothetical vehicle-specific parametric constraint thresholds.

Altino, Karen M.↗
NASA NTRS2016

Quantification of ln-Flight Physical Changes: Anthropometry and Neutral Body Posture

Currently, NASA does not have sufficient in-flight anthropometric data to assess the impact of changes in body shape and size. For developing future planetary and reduced-gravity suits, NASA needs to quantify the impacts of microgravity on anthropometry and body posture to ensure optimal crew performance, fit, and comfort. To obtain data on these changes, circumference, length, height, breadth, and depth for body segments (chest, waist, bicep, thigh, calf) from astronauts for preflight, in-flight, and post-flight conditions needs to be collected. Once these data have been collected, pre-flight, in-flight, and post-flight anthropometric values will be compared, yielding microgravity factors. The neutral body posture (NBP) will also be measured, to determine body posture (joint angle) changes between subjects throughout the duration of a mission. Data collection, starting with Increments 37/38, is still in progress but has been completed for 6 out of 9 subjects. NASA suit engineers and NASA's Extravehicular Activity (EVA) Project Office have identified that suit fit in microgravity could become an issue. It has been noted that crewmembers often need to adjust their suit sizing once they are in orbit. This adjustment could be due to microgravity effects on anthropometry and postural changes, and is necessary to ensure optimal crew performance, fit, and comfort in space. To date, the only data collected to determine the effects of microgravity on physical human changes were collected during Skylab 4, the Apollo-Soyuz Test Project (ASTP), Space Shuttle mission STS-57, and a recent HRP study on seated height changes due to spinal elongation (Spinal Elongation, Master Task List [MTL] #221). The Skylab 4, ASTP, and the STS-57 studies found that, according to photographs, a distinct NBP exists. The still photographs showed a distinguishable posture with the arms raised and the shoulders abducted; in addition, the knees are flexed, with noticeable hip flexion, and the foot is plantar flexed [1,2]. This combination is considered to be the standard set of body joint angles for an NBP in microgravity. A recent simulated microgravity NBP study [3] showed individual variability and inconsistencies in defining NBP. This variation may be influenced by spinal growth, and other potential anthropometry factors such as spinal curvature, age, and gender. Data on the variation of this posture data is required for all kinds of space device designs (such as suits, habitat, and mobility aids). The method proposed in this study considers the dynamic nature of body movement and will use a measurement technique to continually monitor posture and develop a probability likelihood of the neutral posture and how the NBP postures are affected by anthropometry. Additionally, Skylab studies found that crewmembers experienced a stature growth of up to 3 percent. The data included 3 crewmembers and showed that a biphasic stature growth occurs once the crewmember enters into weightlessness. However, the HRP Spinal Elongation study showed that crewmembers could experience about a 6 percent growth in seated height and a 3 percent stature growth, when exposed to microgravity. The results of that study prove that not all anthropometric measurements have the same microgravity percent growth factor. For EVA and suit engineers to properly update the sizing protocol for microgravity, they need additional anthropometric data from space missions. Hence, this study is aimed at gathering additional in-flight anthropometric measurements, such as length, depth, breadth, and circumference, to determine the changes to body shape and size caused by microgravity effects. It is anticipated that by recording the potential changes to body shape and size, NASA will develop a better suit sizing protocol for the International Space Station and other space missions. In essence, this study will help NASA quantify the impacts of microgravity on anthropometry to ensure optimal crew performance, fit, and comfort. This study will use standard anthropometry data collection techniques, 3D laser scanning, digital still photography, and video data, and perform photogrammetric analyses to determine the changes that occur to the body shape and size, and to NBP, when the human body is exposed to a microgravity environment.

Young, K. S.↗
NASA NTRS2016

Probabilistic Damage Characterization Using the Computationally-Efficient Bayesian Approach

This work presents a computationally-ecient approach for damage determination that quanti es uncertainty in the provided diagnosis. Given strain sensor data that are polluted with measurement errors, Bayesian inference is used to estimate the location, size, and orientation of damage. This approach uses Bayes' Theorem to combine any prior knowledge an analyst may have about the nature of the damage with information provided implicitly by the strain sensor data to form a posterior probability distribution over possible damage states. The unknown damage parameters are then estimated based on samples drawn numerically from this distribution using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling algorithm. Several modi cations are made to the traditional Bayesian inference approach to provide signi cant computational speedup. First, an ecient surrogate model is constructed using sparse grid interpolation to replace a costly nite element model that must otherwise be evaluated for each sample drawn with MCMC. Next, the standard Bayesian posterior distribution is modi ed using a weighted likelihood formulation, which is shown to improve the convergence of the sampling process. Finally, a robust MCMC algorithm, Delayed Rejection Adaptive Metropolis (DRAM), is adopted to sample the probability distribution more eciently. Numerical examples demonstrate that the proposed framework e ectively provides damage estimates with uncertainty quanti cation and can yield orders of magnitude speedup over standard Bayesian approaches.

Warner, James E.↗
NASA NTRS2021

Half of global methane emissions come from highly variable aquatic ecosystem sources

Atmospheric methane is a potent greenhouse gas that plays a major role in controlling the Earth’s climate. The causes of the renewed increase of methane concentration since 2007 are uncertain given the multiple sources and complex biogeochemistry. Here, we present a metadata analysis of methane fluxes from all major natural, impacted and human-made aquatic ecosystems. Our revised bottom-up global aquatic methane emissions combine diffusive, ebullitive and/or plant-mediated fluxes from 15 aquatic ecosystems. We emphasize the high variability of methane fluxes within and between aquatic ecosystems and a positively skewed distribution of empirical data, making global estimates sensitive to statistical assumptions and sampling design. We find aquatic ecosystems contribute (median) 41% or (mean) 53% of total global methane emissions from anthropogenic and natural sources. We show that methane emissions increase from natural to impacted aquatic ecosystems and from coastal to freshwater ecosystems. We argue that aquatic emissions will probably increase due to urbanization, eutrophication and positive climate feedbacks and suggest changes in land-use management as potential mitigation strategies to reduce aquatic methane emissions.

aquatic ecosystem↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Setting the Bar for the Replacement of the Probability of Collision Metric

To date, satellite conjunction assessment (CA) risk analysis has largely embraced the probability of collision (Pc) as the omnibus metric to evaluate collision likelihood, and its use in such assessments has mostly been straightforward: at the point at which a conjunction mitigation decision is required, the calculated Pc is compared to a threshold; and if the calculated Pc exceeds that threshold, then a mitigation action is warranted. With only minor variation, this approach is employed by major CA risk assessment centers (e.g., NASA, EUSST, CNES, JAXA) and is advanced as the preferred method in the published CA best practices handbooks. Despite this near unanimity of operational practice, there is a major strain of secondary literature critical of the Pc and willing to propose alternatives. Alfano (2005) pointed out the ability of the Pc to underrepresent the risk in certain situations and counselled a maximum Pc construct. Carpenter (2017, 2019) reiterated this criticism and proposed using instead a confidence interval on the miss distance. Balch et al. (2019) identified what they argued was a defect in the entire Bayesian Pc construct and believed that the use of a more conservative methodology based on covariance ellipsoid overlap was necessary. Delande (2022) introduced the framework of collision “plausibility” to the risk assessment process and sketched out how this might be used operationally. Elkantassi (2022) published a full development of the miss distance confidence interval approach and applied it to several worked examples. While these different approaches to collision risk assessment do differ in their details, they all converge on two central points: first, the Pc’s failure to give an adequate expression of the risk in dilution region situations is a fatal flaw; and second, a conjunction should be presumed risky and in need of mitigation until the evidence of the situation can establish otherwise. These criticisms, if correct, would counsel a number of modifications to current CA operational practice; as such, they force a re-examination of fundamental aspects of the CA problem, including the following: 1. Is the CA risk assessment a probability problem, a statistics problem, or something else? 2. If it is a statistics problem, does it lend itself naturally to a hypothesis test construction? 3. If it can be construed as a hypothesis test, what form should the null hypothesis take, to wit: what constraints exist on the choice of the null hypothesis, what selections are in best alignment with all of the attendant parameters of the problem, and what is implied philosophically by different choices? 4. What are the implications of using the different proposed risk assessment parameters for CA? This question should be answered both in determining how frequently the dilution region situation cited by the critics of the Pc actually appears in an operationally significant manner and the missed detection and false alarm rates of all of the proposed risk assessment metrics, compared both to the Pc and to each other. This paper explores and offers preliminary answers to the above questions, presenting a researched treatment of the philosophical nature of the CA problem and the null hypothesis choice that achieves the greatest consistency with all of the different aspects of operational CA conduct. It then profiles all of the different proposed risk assessment metrics enumerated in the earlier paragraph against an extremely large database of conjunction events at both the 550km and 700km altitudes. The combination of the philosophical exploration of the CA problem and the results of the profiling activity articulates what a risk assessment metric will need to demonstrate, in terms of both innate construction and performance, in order to be a true competitor to the Pc.

conjunction assessment↗
NASA NTRS2015

Trending in Probability of Collision Measurements via a Bayesian Zero-Inflated Beta Mixed Model

We investigate the performance of a generalized linear mixed model in predicting the Probabilities of Collision (Pc) for conjunction events. Specifically, we apply this model to the log(sub 10) transformation of these probabilities and argue that this transformation yields values that can be considered bounded in practice. Additionally, this bounded random variable, after scaling, is zero-inflated. Consequently, we model these values using the zero-inflated Beta distribution, and utilize the Bayesian paradigm and the mixed model framework to borrow information from past and current events. This provides a natural way to model the data and provides a basis for answering questions of interest, such as what is the likelihood of observing a probability of collision equal to the effective value of zero on a subsequent observation.

Conjuction Assessment↗
DOE OSTI2021

Local prediction of Laser Powder Bed Fusion porosity by short-wave infrared imaging thermal feature porosity probability maps

We report that local thermal history can significantly vary in parts during metal Additive Manufacturing (AM), leading to local defects. However, the sequential layer-by-layer nature of AM facilitates in-situ part voxelmetric observations that can be used to detect and correct these defects for part qualification and quality control. The challenge is to relate this local radiometric data with local defect information to estimate process error likelihood in future builds. This paper uses a Short-Wave Infrared (SWIR) camera to record the temperature history for parts manufactured with Laser Powder Bed Fusion (LPBF) processes. The porosity from a cylindrical specimen is measured by ex-situ micro-computed tomography (μCT). Specimen data from the SWIR camera, combined with the μCT data, are used to generate thermal feature-based porosity probability maps. The porosity predictions made by various SWIR thermal feature-porosity probability maps of a specimen with a complex geometry are scored against the true porosity obtained via μCT. The receiver operating characteristic curves constructed from the predictions for the complex sample demonstrate the porosity probability mapping methodology’s potential for in-situ based porosity detection.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗