Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Monte Carlo Modelling”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 253 records · Page 14
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2007

Second Cancers After Fractionated Radiotherapy: Stochastic Population Dynamics Effects

When ionizing radiation is used in cancer therapy it can induce second cancers in nearby organs. Mainly due to longer patient survival times, these second cancers have become of increasing concern. Estimating the risk of solid second cancers involves modeling: because of long latency times, available data is usually for older, obsolescent treatment regimens. Moreover, modeling second cancers gives unique insights into human carcinogenesis, since the therapy involves administering well characterized doses of a well studied carcinogen, followed by long-term monitoring. In addition to putative radiation initiation that produces pre-malignant cells, inactivation (i.e. cell killing), and subsequent cell repopulation by proliferation can be important at the doses relevant to second cancer situations. A recent initiation/inactivation/proliferation (IIP) model characterized quantitatively the observed occurrence of second breast and lung cancers, using a deterministic cell population dynamics approach. To analyze ifradiation-initiated pre-malignant clones become extinct before full repopulation can occur, we here give a stochastic version of this I I model. Combining Monte Carlo simulations with standard solutions for time-inhomogeneous birth-death equations, we show that repeated cycles of inactivation and repopulation, as occur during fractionated radiation therapy, can lead to distributions of pre-malignant cells per patient with variance >> mean, even when pre-malignant clones are Poisson-distributed. Thus fewer patients would be affected, but with a higher probability, than a deterministic model, tracking average pre-malignant cell numbers, would predict. Our results are applied to data on breast cancers after radiotherapy for Hodgkin disease. The stochastic IIP analysis, unlike the deterministic one, indicates: a) initiated, pre-malignant cells can have a growth advantage during repopulation, not just during the longer tumor latency period that follows; b) weekend treatment gaps during radiotherapy, apart from decreasing the probability of eradicating the primary cancer, substantially increase the risk of later second cancers.

Sachs, Rainer K.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Mercury's Na Exosphere from MESSENGER Data

MESSENGER entered orbit about Mercury on March 18, 2011. Since then, the Ultraviolet and Visible Spectrometer (UWS) channel of MESSENGER's Mercury Atmospheric and Surface Composition Spectrometer (MASCS) has been observing Mercury's exosphere nearly continuously. Daily measurements of Na brightness were fitted with non-uniform exospheric models. With Monte Carlo sampling we traced the trajectories of a representative number of test particles, generally one million per run per source process, until photoionization, escape from the gravitational well, or permanent sticking at the surface removed the atom from the simulation. Atoms were assumed to partially thermally accommodate on each encounter with the surface with accommodation coefficient 0.25. Runs for different assumed source processes are run separately, scaled and co-added. Once these model results were saved onto a 3D grid, we ran lines of sight from the MESSENGER spacecraft :0 infinity using the SPICE kernels and we computed brightness integrals. Note that only particles that contribute to the measurement can be constrained with our method. Atoms and molecules produced on the nightside must escape the shadow in order to scatter light if the excitation process is resonant-light scattering, as assumed here. The aggregate distribution of Na atoms fits a 1200 K gas, with a PSD distribution, along with a hotter component. Our models constrain the hot component, assumed to be impact vaporization, to be emitted with a 2500 K Maxwellian. Most orbits show a dawnside enhancement in the hot component broadly spread over the leading hemisphere. However, on some dates there is no dawn/dusk asymmetry. The portion of the hot/cold source appears to be highly variable.

Killen, Rosemary M.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Parallelized Carbon Oxidation and Surface Recession Model in Direct-Simulation Monte Carlo Code, SPARTA

Ablative thermal protection system (TPS) materials for spacecraft are composites that often consist of a carbon-based reinforcement and a polymeric matrix. During Earth re-entry, they endure high-temperature oxidation and surface recession. Oxidation is an important mechanism for ablation, sometimes leading to the weakening, spallation, or failure of the oxidized fibers at the surface and in the char layer. However, more details are required including accurate material properties of the fiber microstructure, whether the fibers recede homogenously or localized at pits, and the role of pyrolysis outgassing in order to evaluate the role oxidation plays in the degradation and failure mechanisms of these materials. In this work, we demonstrate a parallelizable oxidation-driven ablation model developed for detailed, large-scale simulations in the DSMC code SPARTA. We also develop robust algorithms which handle the conservation of the surface state after an ablation step. Finally, we verify our model for both simple and more complex chemistry as well as microstructures with reaction statistics, oxidation depth calculations, and detailed visualization of oxidation-induced material recession at the microscale.

V Arias↗
NASA NTRS2019

Assimilating microwave cloudy observations into NASA GEOS model using a novel Bayesian Monte Carlo technique

Despite the importance of clouds and their influence on atmospheric water and energy balance, Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) centers systematically exclude cloud information from the assimilation process and only assimilate clear-sky radiances (Janiskov´a et al. 2012). In order to ensure that only clear sky radiances are assimilated, strict cloud detection thresholds are applied before radiances are fed into data assimilation (DA) systems. This process not only excludes a large portion of satellite radiances, but causes loss of information in the regions that are of high interest to meteorologists and are most challenging for weather forecasts (Errico et al. 2007; Haddad et al. 2015). Although, in recent years there has been great advances in the operational weather forecasting, the prediction of tropical cyclones (TC), especially the intensity of TCs, remains challenging. According to Aksoy et al. (2013), in addition to the model deficiencies, another important factor that contributes to this challenge includes lack of observations in the peripheral environment (rain- bands) of TCs mainly because of the selective assimilation of existing observations. Satellite observations provide more than 90 % of the input data for the initialization of NWP models but more than 75 % of satellite observations are discarded due to the cloud contamination as well as land, snow, and ice emissivity issues (Bauer et al. 2010).

Rainband↗
NASA NTRS1986

The SIMRAND methodology: Theory and application for the simulation of research and development projects

A research and development (R&D) project often involves a number of decisions that must be made concerning which subset of systems or tasks are to be undertaken to achieve the goal of the R&D project. To help in this decision making, SIMRAND (SIMulation of Research ANd Development Projects) is a methodology for the selection of the optimal subset of systems or tasks to be undertaken on an R&D project. Using alternative networks, the SIMRAND methodology models the alternative subsets of systems or tasks under consideration. Each path through an alternative network represents one way of satisfying the project goals. Equations are developed that relate the system or task variables to the measure of reference. Uncertainty is incorporated by treating the variables of the equations probabilistically as random variables, with cumulative distribution functions assessed by technical experts. Analytical techniques of probability theory are used to reduce the complexity of the alternative networks. Cardinal utility functions over the measure of preference are assessed for the decision makers. A run of the SIMRAND Computer I Program combines, in a Monte Carlo simulation model, the network structure, the equations, the cumulative distribution functions, and the utility functions.

Miles, R. F., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS1974

Micrometeoroid abrasion of lunar rocks - A Monte Carlo simulation

A Monte Carlo computer model simulating the randomness of the impact process both in space and in time is developed in order to provide insight into lunar rock erosion by single particle abrasion and into bombardment history of fractional surface areas of lunar rocks. Microcrater frequencies derived from lunar rocks are used to calculate magnitude and probability of each cratering event, and experimental cratering results are employed to determine the eroded volumina for individual crater sizes. It is shown that a fractional surface area of a lunar rock sample may have a completely different bombardment history, and that the exposure histories and actual erosion depths of the surfaces vary accordingly and are highly heterogeneous. A minimum erosion rate of 0.3 to 0.6 mm for the past one million years is obtained.

Hoerz, F.↗
NASA NTRS1977

Determination of scattering functions and their effects on remote sensing of turbidity in natural waters

The development of quantitative analytical procedures for relating scattered signals, measured by a remote sensor, was considered. The applications of a Monte Carlo simulation model for radiative transfer in turbid water are discussed. The model is designed to calculate the characteristics of the backscattered signal from an illuminated body of water as a function of the turbidity level, and the spectral properties of the suspended particulates. The optical properties of the environmental waters, necessary for model applications, were derived from available experimental data and/or calculated from Mie formalism. Results of applications of the model are presented.

Ghovanlou, A. H.↗
NASA NTRS1978

Effects of cloud size and cloud particles on satellite-observed reflected brightness

Satellite observations allowed obtaining data on the visible brightness of cumulus clouds over South Park, Colorado, while aircraft observations were made in cloud to obtain the drop size distributions and liquid water content of the cloud. Attention is focused on evaluating the relationship between cloud brightness, horizontal dimension, and internal microphysical structure. A Monte Carlo cloud model for finite clouds was run using different distributions of drop sizes and numbers, while varying the cloud depth and width to determine how theory would predict what the satellite would view from its given location in space. Comparison of these results to the satellite observed reflectances is presented. Theoretical results are found to be in good agreement with observations. For clouds of optical thickness between 20 and 60, monitoring cloud brightness changes in clouds of uniform depth and variable width gives adequate information about a cloud's liquid water content. A cloud having a 10:1 width to depth ratio is almost reaching its maximum brightness for a specified optical thickness.

Reynolds, D. W.↗
NASA NTRS1978

Costing the satellite power system

The paper presents a methodology for satellite power system costing, places approximate limits on the accuracy possible in cost estimates made at this time, and outlines the use of probabilistic cost information in support of the decision-making process. Reasons for using probabilistic costing or risk analysis procedures instead of standard deterministic costing procedures are considered. Components of cost, costing estimating relationships, grass roots costing, and risk analysis are discussed. Risk analysis using a Monte Carlo simulation model is used to estimate future costs.

Hazelrigg, G. A., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS1979

The extent of lunar regolith mixing

The activity of solar cosmic-ray-produced Mn-53 measured as a function of depth in the upper 100 g/sq cm of lunar cores 60009-60010 and 12025-12028 is discussed. Analyses of samples from the Apollo 15 and 16 drill stems together with authors' previously published results (1974, 1976), and the Battelle Na-22 and Al-26 data, indicate that in three of the four cases studied the regolith was measurably disturbed within the last 10 m.y. Activities measured in the uppermost 2 g/sq cm indicate frequent mixing within this depth range. The Monte Carlo gardening model of Arnold (1975) was used to derive profiles for the gardened moon-wide average of Mn-53 and Al-26 as a function of depth. The Mn-53 and Al-26 experimental results agreed with theoretical predictions, but the calculated depths of disturbance appeared too low.

Nishiizumi, K.↗
NASA NTRS1980

Advanced risk assessment of the effects of graphite fibers on electronic and electric equipment

An assessment of the risk associated with accidents involving aircraft with carbon fiber composite structural components is examined. The individual fiber segments cause electrical and electronic equipment to fail under certain operating conditions. A Monte Carlo simulation model was used to computer the risk. Aircraft accidents with fire, release of carbon fiber material, entrainment of carbon fibers in a smoke plume transport of fibers downwind, transfer of some fibers/into the the interior of buildings, failures of electrical and electronic equipment, and economic impact of failures are discussed. Risk profiles were prepared for individual airports and the Nation. The vulnerability of electrical transmission equipment to carbon fiber incursion and aircraft accident total costs is investigated.

Pocinki, L.↗
NASA NTRS1981

Sensitivity of geographic information system outputs to errors in remotely sensed data

The sensitivity of the outputs of a geographic information system (GIS) to errors in inputs derived from remotely sensed data (RSD) is investigated using a suitability model with per-cell decisions and a gridded geographic data base whose cells are larger than the RSD pixels. The process of preparing RSD as input to a GIS is analyzed, and the errors associated with classification and registration are examined. In the case of the model considered, it is found that the errors caused during classification and registration are partially compensated by the aggregation of pixels. The compensation is quantified by means of an analytical model, a Monte Carlo simulation, and experiments with Landsat data. The results show that error reductions of the order of 50% occur because of aggregation when 25 pixels of RSD are used per cell in the geographic data base.

Ramapriyan, H. K.↗
NASA NTRS1983

Dynamical evolution of the Oort cometary cloud

The dynamical evolution of comets in the Oort cloud under the influence of stellar perturbations has been modeled using Monte Carlo techniques. It is shown that the cloud has been depleted over the history of the solar system. Comets are lost from the cloud by direct ejection due to close stellar encounters, diffusion of aphelia to distances beyond the sun's sphere of influence, or diffusion of perihelia into the planetary region where Jupiter and Saturn perturbations either eject them on hyperbolic trajectories or capture them to short-period orbits. The population of the cloud is estimated to be 1.0 - 1.5 x 10 to the 12th comets and the total mass is on the order of 1.9 earth masses. In addition to random passing stars, less frequent encounters with giant molecular clouds may play a significant role in randomizing the orbits of comets in the cloud and reducing the effective radius of the sun's sphere of influence.

Weissman, P. R.↗
NASA NTRS1985

Dynamical evolution of the Oort cloud

New studies of the dynamical evolution of cometary orbits in the Oort cloud are made using a revised version of Weissman's (1982) Monte Carlo simulation model, which more accurately mimics the perturbation of comets by the giant planets. It is shown that perturbations by Saturn and Jupiter provide a substantial barrier to the diffusion of cometary perihelia into the inner solar system. Perturbations by Uranus and Neptune are rarely great enough to remove comets from the Oort cloud, but do serve to scatter the comets in the cloud in initial energy. The new model gives a population of 1.8 to 2.1 x 10 to the 12th comets for the present-day Oort cloud, and a mass of 7 to 8 earth masses. Perturbation of the Oort cloud by giant molecular clouds in the galaxy is discussed, as is evidence for a massive 'inner Oort cloud' internal to the observed one. The possibility of an unseen solar companion orbiting in the Oort cloud and causing periodic comet showers is shown to be dynamically plausible but unlikely, based on the observed cratering rate on the earth and moon.

Weissman, P. R.↗
NASA NTRS1989

Cratering of the terrestrial planets by Apollo objects

An asteroidal collision model and Monte Carlo program used for studies of the terrestrial meteorite flux, the steady-state number of Apollo-Amor objects, and the orbital distribution of both meteorites and Apollo-Amor objects is used to calculate absolute and relative cratering rates on the terrestrial planets. It is found that the 'best' estimates of the predicted asteroidal cratering rate are three times lower than estimates of the observed terrestrial cratering rate. If this is due to errors in the asteroidal production rate of Apollo-Amor objects, the predicted present-day cratering rate per unit area on Mars is four times that on earth, whereas that on Mercury is twice that on earth.

Wetherill, G. W.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Globular cluster photometry with the Hubble Space Telescope. I - Description of the method and analysis of the core of 47 Tuc

Accurate photometry for individual post-main-sequence stars in the core of the Galactic globular cluster 47 Tuc is presented and analyzed using an empirical point spread function model and Monte Carlo simulations. A V vs. V-I color-magnitude diagrams is constructed which shows several distinct stellar types, including RGB and HB stars. Twenty-four blue straggler stars are detected in 47 Tuc, more concentrated toward the center of the cluster than the giants. This supports the hypothesis is that the stragglers are either coalesced stars or members of binary systems that are more massive than single stars. The radial profile of the projected stellar density is flat in the central region of 47 Tuc with a core radius of 23 +/- 2 arcsec. No signature of a collapsed core is evident. The observed radial cumulative distribution of stars rules out the presence of a massive compact object in the center.

Guhathakurta, Puragra↗