Selection of surrogate modeling techniques for surface approximation and surrogate-based optimization
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Williams, Bianca (ORCID:0000000170675175)↗
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Results for “Model selection”
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Bayesian Optimization for E3SM climate model surrogate hyperparameter selection
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Richards-Dinger, Maia Katherine↗
Informing ARC divertor design and plasma facing material selection through integrated modeling
This INFUSE 2023 project between UCLA and Commonwealth Fusion Systems used computer modeling to test whether tungsten materials can survive in CFS's ARC fusion reactor divertor. The team simulated plasma conditions and material responses, finding that tungsten-rhenium alloys resist grain growth better than pure tungsten, and that hydrogen buildup depends more on particle flux than temperature. The work helps CFS design durable plasma-facing components for their fusion power plant.
36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
Substitution Models of Protein Evolution with Selection on Enzymatic Activity
Abstract Substitution models of evolution are necessary for diverse evolutionary analyses including phylogenetic tree and ancestral sequence reconstructions. At the protein level, empirical substitution models are traditionally used due to their simplicity, but they ignore the variability of substitution patterns among protein sites. Next, in order to improve the realism of the modeling of protein evolution, a series of structurally constrained substitution models were presented, but still they usually ignore constraints on the protein activity. Here, we present a substitution model of protein evolution with selection on both protein structure and enzymatic activity, and that can be applied to phylogenetics. In particular, the model considers the binding affinity of the enzyme–substrate complex as well as structural constraints that include the flexibility of structural flaps, hydrogen bonds, amino acids backbone radius of gyration, and solvent-accessible surface area that are quantified through molecular dynamics simulations. We applied the model to the HIV-1 protease and evaluated it by phylogenetic likelihood in comparison with the best-fitting empirical substitution model and a structurally constrained substitution model that ignores the enzymatic activity. We found that accounting for selection on the protein activity improves the fitting of the modeled functional regions with the real observations, especially in data with high molecular identity, which recommends considering constraints on the protein activity in the development of substitution models of evolution.
Ferreiro, David↗
Selection of Global Climate Model Data for Downscaling With Generative Machine Learning and Use in the Power Planning for Alignment of Climate and Energy Systems Project
The range of results from climate models and scenarios is important to the understanding of uncertainty in power planning analysis. A U.S. Department of Energy-funded analytic project called Power Planning for Alignment of Climate and Energy Systems is developing data and analytic methods to reflect the effects of climate change on key variables for power system planning, as part of the Grid Modernization Lab Consortium. This project will select and prepare global climate model results for use in power system planning models. A related report (Evaluation of Global Climate Models for Use in Energy Analysis) assesses the performance of various global climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 data archive for their historical skill with respect to energy system performance and for their future projections under multiple climate change scenarios. Building from that report, we describe the selection of a climate scenario (Shared Socioeconomic Pathway [SSP] 2-4.5) and five climate models: TaiESM1, EC-Earth3-CC, GFDL-CM4, EC-Earth3-Veg, and MPI-ESM1-2-HR. We describe the model selection criteria, which were based on the quality of the match between model results under historical conditions and on the representation of the range of future values for several variables. These results will be downscaled via an open-source generative machine learning method called Super-Resolution for Renewable Energy Resource Data with Climate Change Impacts.
29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
Review of data-driven models for quantifying load shed by non-residential buildings in the United States
Shifting and shedding power demand in buildings can be cost-effective techniques for grids to function reliably and for end users to earn compensation. Grid operators reimburse customers in proportion to the quantity of load shed. Simple data-driven methods are used to quantify this shed, which is the difference between a measured load during the event and modeled "baseline" that would have occurred in absence of the event. These methods have evolved over the years and in many cases have been integrated with building physics, to make them a hybrid between physics based and empirical models. However, there is no comprehensive analysis that provides guidance to building operators, grid operators and researchers in selecting appropriate models based on their specific needs and available data. Here, this work aims to fill this gap by critically assessing the performance of baseline models put forward from the year 2000 through 2023. The literature reviewed includes reports generated by grid operators, reports from national laboratories and academic journal articles. The work outlines modeling features like the inputs, training period, estimation method, adjustments to fine tune the predictions and metrics to evaluate the performance. A comprehensive list of 50 models has been provided. For each model, the study explores the applicability of the model to weather sensitive buildings, variability in the building profile, timing of the event, and whether the building reduces energy consumption before an event. The work identifies the situations in which a particular model works and draws lessons based on evidence of performance. Finally, recommendations to aid in model selection are given.
97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
Adapting Existing Energy Models for Resilience Analysis
Resilience is a topic receiving much attention in relation to energy systems, with particular attention being paid to the supply of electricity. As a result of the growing interest in energy sector resilience, research communities have proposed a plethora of candidate resilience indicators and metrics, most of which remain immature at different scales and segments within the energy system. A necessary focus of the research community lies in implementing, testing, and validating resilience metrics and analysis approaches in energy sector models, which will be invaluable for informing resilience planning and investment decisions. Recognizing these challenges that need to be addressed, we explore how to effectively integrate resilience considerations into energy sector models and tools. The overarching goal of the effort was to evaluate the data needs, methodologies, and outcomes—including consequences and/or changes in investment or operational decisions due to avoided consequences—based on resilience analysis in a range of existing tools. In particular, we selected five models originally built at NREL to explore non-resilience energy research questions to implement and exercise resilience metrics and analysis approaches. To demonstrate the importance of perspective, we selected models that represent different segments of the energy sector, geographic scales, and modeling approaches. A second important aspect of our effort was the development of generalized power interruption scenarios. These scenarios were intended to help establish a framework for simulating the effects of real-world threats in terms of their impacts on system components and, in turn, power interruption.
ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
A systematic method for selecting molecular descriptors as features when training models for predicting physiochemical properties
Machine learning has proven to be a powerful tool for accelerating biofuel development. Although numerous models are available to predict a range of properties using chemical descriptors, there is a trade-off between interpretability and performance. Neural networks provide predictive models with high accuracy at the expense of some interpretability, while simpler models such as linear regression often lack in accuracy. In addition to model architecture, feature selection is also critical for developing interpretable and accurate predictive models. We present a method for systematically selecting molecular descriptor features and developing interpretable machine learning models without sacrificing accuracy. Our method simplifies the process of selecting features by reducing feature multicollinearity and enables discoveries of new relationships between global properties and molecular descriptors. To demonstrate our approach, we developed models for predicting melting point, boiling point, flash point, yield sooting index, and net heat of combustion with the help of the Tree-based Pipeline Optimization Tool (TPOT). For training, we used publicly available experimental data for up to 8351 molecules. Our models accurately predict various molecular properties for organic molecules (mean absolute percent error (MAPE) ranges from 3.3% to 10.5%) and provide a set of features that are well-correlated to the property. This method enables researchers to explore sets of features that significantly contribute to the prediction of the property, offering new scientific insights. To help accelerate early stage biofuel research and development, we also integrated the data and models into a open-source, interactive web tool.
09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
Improved natural convection heat transfer correlations for reactor cavity cooling systems of high-temperature gas-cooled reactors: From computational fluid dynamics to Pronghorn
The Reactor Cavity Cooling System (RCCS) is a common reactor safety system in High Temperature Gas Cooled Reactors (HTGR) that removes heat from the Reactor Pressure Vessel (RPV) by radiation ($\sim 80\%$) and natural convection ($\sim 20\%$). For simulation of accident scenarios of HTGRs, intermediate fidelity and system codes models must be employed for limiting the models' execution time. While accurate quantification of the radiative heat transfer is available in these models, quantification of natural convection must rely on correlations of questionable accuracy for the Nusselt number. Commonly used correlations are based in experiments performed at low Rayleigh numbers and/or using isothermal walls in simplified geometries. Here, this work improves on the accuracy of natural convection heat transfer correlations in support for HTGR designs. These correlations include both local and average Nusselt numbers as a function of the global Rayleigh number, the local Rayleigh number, and the temperature profile at the hot wall of the RCCS. In the absence of dedicated experiments and the difficulty of performing high-fidelity simulations at realistic Rayleigh numbers, the data to fit the correlations are generated with Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) using Reynolds Averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) models. First, a careful selection of the RANS turbulence model is performed by comparing the results obtained with different RANS turbulence models against high fidelity simulations of natural convection at $Ra \ 1 \times 10^{11}$ in a rectangular cavity. Next, the selected model is used to perform simulations of an HTGR cavity at different high Rayleigh numbers $\in [6.1 \times 10^{11},2.9 \times 10^{13}]$ to encompass several HTGR designs, assuming an isothermal RPV wall. The results obtained are used to fit a correlation for the average and space-varying Nusselt number as a function of the global and local Rayleigh numbers via a sparsity-promoting least-squares method. The selected RANS model is then used to perform simulations of a PBMR 400 HTGR cavity with the temperature profiles at the RPV wall obtained during a PLOFC transient. We use the results obtained to fit a temperature-dependent correction to the space-varying Nusselt number with the sparsity-promoting least-squares method. The results obtained in this work, enable system-level codes, such as Pronghorn, to perform higher-fidelity simulations of the heat exchange process in the RCCS while still maintaining a low computational cost.
42 ENGINEERING↗
A modeling pipeline to relate municipal wastewater surveillance and regional public health data
As COVID-19 becomes endemic, public health departments require improved passive indicators, which are independent of voluntary testing data, to estimate the prevalence of COVID-19 in local communities. Quantification of SARS-CoV-2 RNA from wastewater has the potential to be a powerful passive indicator. However, connecting measured SARS-CoV-2 RNA to community prevalence is challenging. We have developed a generalized methodology to improve the predictive power of wastewater measurements and applied it to data collected from treatment plants in the Chicago area. We built and compared a set of multi-linear regression models, which incorporate pepper mild mottle virus (PMMoV) as a population biomarker, Bovine coronavirus (BCoV) as a recovery control, and wastewater system flow rate into a corrected estimate for SARS-CoV-2 RNA concentration. For our data, models with BCoV performed better than those with PMMoV, but all model estimates of prevalence significantly improved correlation compared to doing no correction. We also investigate the utility of RNA measurements in wastewater as a leading indicator of COVID-19 trends. We do this in a rolling manner for corrected wastewater data and for other prevalence indicators, and statistically compare the temporal relationship between new increases in the wastewater data and those in other prevalence indicators. We find that wastewater trends often lead other COVID-19 indicators in predicting new surges.
60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
Multiobjective Optimal Controlled Variable Selection for a Gas Turbine–Solid Oxide Fuel Cell System Using a Multiagent Optimization Platform
Hybrid gas turbine–fuel cell systems have immense potential for high efficiency in electrical power generation with cleaner emissions compared with fossil-fueled power generation. We report a systematic controlled variable (CV) selection method is deployed for a hybrid gas turbine–fuel cell system in the HyPer (hybrid performance) facility at the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) for maximizing its economic and control performance. A three-stage approach is used for the CV selection comprising a priori analysis, multiobjective optimization, and a posteriori analysis. The a priori analysis helps to screen off several candidate CVs, thus reducing the size of the combinatorial optimization problem for multiobjective CV selection. For optimal CV selection, a transfer function model of the HyPer facility is identified. By considering several candidate models, the final transfer function model is selected using Akaike’s Final Prediction Error criterion. Experimental data from the HyPer facility are used to estimate the noise in the measurement data. For solving the combinatorial multiobjective optimization problem for CV selection, a multiagent optimization platform comprising simulated annealing, genetic algorithm, and efficient ant colony optimization algorithms is used. Pareto-optimal CV sets exhibit a high trade-off between the economic and control objective. The a posteriori analysis is undertaken for several top Pareto-optimal CV sets. An optimal CV set is selected that shows the best compromise between process economics and controllability under both nominal and off-design conditions.
37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
Two Large-Scale Meteorological Patterns are Associated with Short-Duration Dry Spells in the Northeastern United States
Large-scale meteorological pattern (LSMP)–based analysis is used in a novel way to understand meteorological conditions before and during short-duration dry spells over the northeastern United States. These LSMPs are useful to assess models and select better-performing models for future projections. Dry-spell events are identified from histograms of consecutive dry days below a daily precipitation threshold. Events lasting 12 days or longer, which correspond to ~10% of dry-spell events, are examined. The 500-hPa stream-function anomaly fields for the first 12 days of each event are time averaged, and k -means clustering is applied to isolate the dry-spell-related LSMPs. The first cluster has a strong low pressure anomaly over the Atlantic Ocean, southeast of the region, and is more common in winter and spring. The second cluster has strong high pressure over east-central North America and is most common during autumn. Over the region, both clusters have negative specific humidity anomalies, negative integrated vapor transport from the north, and subsidence associated with a midlatitude jet stream dipole structure that reinforces upper-level convergence. Subsidence is supported by cold-air advection in the first cluster and the location on the east side of the lower-level high pressure in the second cluster. Extratropical cyclone storm tracks are generally shifted southward of the region during the dry spells. Individual events lie on a continuum between two distinct clusters. These clusters have similar local, but different remote, properties. Although dry spells occur with greater frequency during drought months, most dry spells occur during nondrought months. Significance Statement: This study examines the large-scale weather patterns and meteorological conditions associated with dry-spell events lasting at least 2 weeks while affecting the northeastern United States. A statistical approach groups events together on the basis of similar atmospheric features. We find two distinct sets of patterns that we call large-scale meteorological patterns. These patterns reduce moisture, foster localized sinking, and shift the storm track southward along the Atlantic seaboard, all of which reduce precipitation. Besides greater understanding, knowing the meteorological patterns during short-term dryness in the region provides an important tool to assess how well atmospheric models reproduce these specific patterns. More dry spells occur in non-drought months than in drought months, which means that dry spells can occur without preexisting drought conditions.
58 GEOSCIENCES↗
Encoding nonlinear and unsteady aerodynamics of limit cycle oscillations using nonlinear sparse Bayesian learning
This article investigates the applicability of a recently proposed, nonlinear sparse Bayesian learning (NSBL) algorithm to identify and estimate the complex aerodynamics of limit cycle oscillations. NSBL provides a semi-analytical framework for determining the data-optimal sparse model nested within a (potentially) over-parameterized model. This is particularly relevant to nonlinear dynamical systems where modelling approaches involve the use of physics-based and data-driven components. In such cases, the data-driven components, where analytical descriptions of the physical processes are not readily available, are often prone to overfitting, meaning that the empirical aspects of these models will often involve the calibration of an unnecessarily large number of parameters. While an overparameterized model may fit the observed data well, such models may be inadequate for making predictions in regimes that are different from those wherein the data were recorded. In view of this, it is desirable to not only calibrate the model parameters, but also identify the optimal compromise between data fit and model complexity. In this article, we exhibit the optimal model discovery for an aeroelastic system wherein the structural dynamics are well-known and described by a differential equation model, coupled with a semi-empirical aerodynamic model for laminar separation flutter, resulting in low-amplitude limit cycle oscillations (LCO). To illustrate the performance of the algorithm, in this article, we use synthetic data and demonstrate the ability of the algorithm to correctly rediscover the optimal model and model parameters, given a known data-generating model. The synthetic data are generated from a forward simulation of a known differential equation model with parameters selected so as to mimic the dynamics observed in wind-tunnel experiments. Subsequently, we demonstrate the performance of the algorithm for model selection using noisy LCO data from wind tunnel experiments. As there is no ground truth available for the experimental data case, we provide a comparison between NSBL and Bayesian model selection to validate the results, and demonstrate the use of NSBL as an efficient alternative to traditional methods.
97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
Modified Energy Span Analysis of Catalytic Parallel Pathways and Selectivity
Mechanistic modeling provides vital insights into catalytic reactions. To analyze complex reaction networks with parallel pathways, we leverage the graph theory approach of the Energy Span Model (ESM) to develop a modified energy span analysis (MESA). A new method of cycle plots is proposed to perform reaction pathways analysis visually. We demonstrate this method on two published models: one describing carbon monoxide oxidation and the other simulating ethylene conversion to propanal via hydroformylation or ethane via hydrogenation. Fundamental insights explain kinetic observables, such as a reactant’s negative reaction order. General principles are revealed, such as rate-determining surface species being outside the primary reaction flux cycle and pathway selectivity being a purely kinetic property when reaction conditions are not near equilibrium. Lastly, we demonstrate MESA’s consistency with published microkinetic modeling results, highlighting this technique’s extension of the ESM to heterogeneous catalysts using collision theory to describe adsorption steps and concentration effects.
37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
The development and use of decision support framework for informing selection of select agent toxins with modelling studies to inform permissible toxin amounts
Many countries have worked diligently to establish and implement policies and processes to regulate high consequence pathogens and toxins that could have a significant public health impact if misused. In the United States, the Antiterrorism and Effective Death Penalty Act of 1996 (Public Law 104-132, 1996), as amended by the Bioterrorism Preparedness and Response Act of 2002 (Public Law 107-188, 2002) requires that the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) [through the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)] establish a list of bacteria, viruses, and toxins that have the potential to pose a severe threat to public health and safety. Currently, this list is reviewed and updated on a biennial basis using input from subject matter experts (SMEs). We have developed decision support framework (DSF) approaches to facilitate selection of select toxins and, where toxicity data are known, conducted modelling studies to inform selection of toxin amounts that should be excluded from select agent regulations. Exclusion limits allow laboratories to possess toxins under an established limit to support their research or teaching activities without the requirement to register with the Federal Select Agent Program. Fact sheets capturing data from a previously vetted SME workshop convened by CDC, literature review and SME input were developed to assist in evaluating toxins using the DSF approach. The output of the DSF analysis agrees with the current select toxin designations, and no other toxins evaluated in this study were recommended for inclusion on the select agent and toxin list. To inform the selection of exclusion limits, attack scenarios were developed to estimate the amount of toxin needed to impact public health. Scenarios consisted of simulated aerosol releases of a toxin in high-population-density public facilities and the introduction of a toxin into a daily consumable product supply chain. Using published inhalation and ingestion median toxic dose (TD 50 ) and median lethal dose (LD 50 ) values, where available, a range of toxin amounts was examined to estimate the number of people exposed to these amounts in these scenarios. Based on data generated by these models, we proposed toxin exclusion values corresponding to levels below those that would trigger a significant public health response (i.e., amounts estimated to expose up to ten people by inhalation or one hundred people by ingestion to LD 50 or TD 50 levels of toxin in the modeled scenarios).
60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
Machine learning-enabled prediction of chemical durability of A 2 B 2 O 7 pyrochlore and fluorite
Pyrochlore-structure type and its derivative in a general formula A 2 B 2 O 7 (A = rare earth elements and actinides; B = Ti, Sn, Zr, Hf, Pb, Si, etc.) display excellent structural flexibility and rich crystal chemistry as promising nuclear waste form materials capable of immobilizing actinides and fission products. It is essential to understand these materials’ chemical durability and element release of radionuclides in order to evaluate their performance in near-field environment. However, it is a formidable grand technological challenge to experimentally perform durability testing across hundreds of thousands of possibilities resulting from their extreme compositional complexities due to cation substitutions at both A and B-sites. In this work, we demonstrate a machine learning approach to determine the key materials parameters and structural characteristics governing the leaching behaviors from a small set of selected compositions as model systems, enabling a science-based prediction of their chemical durability that can be extended to a wide range of chemical compositions. The combination of four key structural characteristics and materials parameters, including ionic radius size difference , ionic potential difference , electronegativity difference , and lattice parameter , creates features an optimized prediction of the chemical durability. Two machine learning models, linear regression and Kernel ridge regression models, are trained on the randomly-split training dataset derived from the experimentally-determined elemental release rates, and subsequently tested on the testing dataset. The predicted leaching rates from both machine learning models show an excellent agreement with the experimental data, demonstrating the feasibility of rapidly evaluating the material properties of new compositions. These results highlight the immense potential of synergizing informatics through machine learning-based models and well-controlled experiments of selected model systems to accelerate materials design and discovery with optimized compositions and performance of promising materials for effective nuclear waste management.
12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
Model‐Based Approach to Selecting Pegfilgrastim Dose for Pharmacokinetic and Pharmacodynamic Similarity Studies in Biosimilar Development
This study applied modeling and simulation (M&S) approaches to evaluate the sensitivity of pegfilgrastim pharmacokinetics (PKs) and pharmacodynamics (PDs) to changes in dose amount, and linear or nonlinear clearance (CL) over pegfilgrastim subcutaneous dose of 2–6 mg. A previously published model was adapted to better describe pegfilgrastim PK and PD data in healthy subjects and used in simulation. Nonlinear CL accounts for 98% and 77%, respectively, of the total CL of pegfilgrastim at 2 and 6 mg. The sensitivity analyses showed: (i) PK of 2 and 6 mg doses are similarly sensitive to detect differences for a 5% change in dose; (ii) PK of 2 mg dose is more sensitive to changes in receptor binding affinity, a model parameter for nonlinear CL, and a product quality attribute characterized with orthogonal methods as part of demonstrating analytical similarity between products; (iii) PK of approved 6 mg dose is more sensitive to changes in linear CL, which has not been associated with any specific product quality attributes, and (iv) the PDs are not sensitive to changes in linear or nonlinear CL. Taken together, our analyses support that the approved pegfilgrastim dose of 6 mg is appropriate for detecting differences between a biosimilar and the reference products in pegfilgrastim PK and PD similarity studies. The described M&S approaches can be adopted to support dose selection for biosimilars with nonlinear PK and complex PK–PD interplay.
Pharmacology & Pharmacy↗