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At least 253 records · Page 14

LADEE Satellite Modeling and Simulation Development

As human activity on and around the Moon increases, so does the likelihood that our actions will have an impact on its atmosphere. The Lunar Atmosphere and Dust Environment Explorer (LADEE), a NASA satellite scheduled to launch in 2013, will orbit the Moon collecting composition, density, and time variability data to characterize the current state of the lunar atmosphere. LADEE will also test the concept of the "Modular Common Bus" spacecraft architecture, an effort to reduce both development time and cost by designing reusable, modular components for use in multiple missions with similar requirements. An important aspect of this design strategy is to both simulate the spacecraft and develop the flight code in Simulink, a block diagram-style programming language that allows easy algorithm visualization and performance testing. Before flight code can be tested, however, a realistic simulation of the satellite and its dynamics must be generated and validated. This includes all of the satellite control system components such as actuators used for force and torque generation and sensors used for inertial orientation reference. My primary responsibilities have included designing, integrating, and testing models for the LADEE thrusters, reaction wheels, star trackers, and rate gyroscopes.

Adams, Michael↗

Electrical Cable Design for Urban Air Mobility Aircraft

Urban Air Mobility (UAM) describes a new type of aviation focused on efficient flight within urban areas for moving people and goods. There are many different configurations of UAM vehicles, but they generally use an electric motor driving a propeller or ducted fan powered by batteries or a hybrid electric power generation system. Transmission cables are used to move energy from the storage or generation system to the electric motors. Though terrestrial power transmission cables are well established technology, aviation applications bring a whole host of new design challenges that are not typical considerations in terrestrial applications. Aircraft power transmission cable designs must compromise between resistance-per-length, weight-per-length, volume constraints, and other essential qualities. In this paper we use a multidisciplinary design optimization to explore the sensitivity of these qualities to a representative tiltwing turboelectric UAM aircraft concept. This is performed by coupling propulsion and thermal models for a given mission criteria. Results presented indicate that decreasing cable weight at the expense of increasing cable volume or cooling demand is effective at minimizing maximum takeoff weight (MTO). These findings indicate that subsystem designers should update their modeling approach in order to contribute to system-level optimality for highly-coupled novel aircraft. Mobility (UAM) vehicles have the potential to change urban and intra-urban transport in new and interesting ways. In a series of two papers Johnson et al.1 and Silva et al.2 presented four reference vehicle configurations that could service different niches in the UAM aviation category. Of those, this paper focuses on the Vertical Take-off and Landing (VTOL) tiltwing configuration shown in Figure 1. This configuration uses a turboelectric power system, feeding power from a turbo-generator through a system of transmission cables to four motors spinning large propellers on the wings. Previous work on electric cable subsystems leaves much yet to be explored, especially in the realm of subsystem coupling. Several aircraft optimization studies1, 3, 4 only considered aircraft electrical cable weight and ignored thermal effects. Electric and hybrid-electric aircraft studies by Mueller et al.5 and Hoelzen et al.6 selected a cable material but did not investigate alternative materials. Advanced cable materials have been examined by a number of authors: Alvarenga7 examined carbon nanotube (CNT) conductors for low-power applications. De Groh8, 9 examined CNT conductors for motor winding applications. Behabtu et al.,10 and Zhao et al.11 examined CNT conductors for a general applications. There were some studies that examined the thermal effects of cables but they did not allow the cable material to change; El-Kady12 optimized ground-cable insulation and cooling subject constraints. Vratny13 selected cable material based on vehicle power demand, and required resulting cable heat to be dissipated by the Thermal Management System (TMS). None of these previous studies allowed for the selection of the cable material based on a system level optimization goal. Instead, they focused on sub-system optimality such as minimum weight, which comes at the expense of incurring additional costs for other subsystems. Dama14 selected overhead transmission line materials using a weighting function and thermal constraints. However, that work was not coupled with any aircraft subsystems like a TMS. The traditional aircraft design approach, which relies on assembling groups of optimal subsystems, breaks down when considering novel aircraft concepts like the tiltwing vehicle. In a large part, this is because novel concepts have a much higher degree of interaction or coupling between subsystems. For example, when a cable creates heat, this heat needs to be dissipated by the TMS, which needs power supplied by the turbine, and delivering the power creates more heat. The cable, the TMS, and the turbine are all coupled. A change to one subsystem will affect all the other subsystems, much to the consternation of subsystem design experts. Multidisciplinary optimization is the design approach that can address these challenges. However, to fully take advantage of this, we must change the way we think about subsystem design. Specifically, we must move away from point design, and focus on creating solution spaces. The work presented in this paper uses the multidisciplinary optimization approach with aircraft level models to study the system-level sensitivity of cable traits: weight-per-length and resistance-per-length. Additionally, we examined the effects of vehicle imposed volume constraints on these traits. This is useful for three purposes: (1) to demonstrate a framework that can perform a coupled analysis between the aircraft thermal and propulsion systems, (2) to provide a method by which future cable designs can be evaluated against each other given a system-level design goal, (3) to provide insight into what cable properties may be promising for future research. This last element is explored given the caveat that the models contained in this analysis do not represent high-fidelity systems. Thus, while we can demonstrate coupling in between systems, the exact system-level sensitivity to a given parameter may change if a subsystem model or the assumptions governing that model change. The organization of this paper is as follows, in Sec II we outline a method to combine the VTOL vehicle design and cable information in order to produce cables sensitivity studies. Results analysis and discussion are contained in Sec III. Conclusions are presented in Sec IV.

Aretskin-Hariton, Eliot D.↗

Mars Meteorolgical Network

Exploring and ultimately establishing a permanent presence on the surface of Mars will necessitate an understanding the weather conditions and the ability to forecast its dynamic behavior. The meteorology of Mars will need to be developed. This abstract puts forth a concept for a Mars Meteorological Network that will be used to investigate the Mars atmosphere behavior, explore the surface environment, and prepare for operational activities. It is proposed that the long term and the dynamic nature of the lower atmosphere and surface of Mars be observed with a distributed global array of simple automated surface nodes. The data would be ingested into the Mars Global Reference Atmospheric Model (Mars-GRAM) and other research tools for analyses to gain a better understanding of the atmospheric conditions on Mars.

Justh, H. L.↗

Mass and Reliability System (MaRS)

The Safety and Mission Assurance (S&MA) Directorate is responsible for mitigating risk, providing system safety, and lowering risk for space programs from ground to space. The S&MA is divided into 4 divisions: The Space Exploration Division (NC), the International Space Station Division (NE), the Safety & Test Operations Division (NS), and the Quality and Flight Equipment Division (NT). The interns, myself and Arun Aruljothi, will be working with the Risk & Reliability Analysis Branch under the NC Division's. The mission of this division is to identify, characterize, diminish, and communicate risk by implementing an efficient and effective assurance model. The team utilizes Reliability and Maintainability (R&M) and Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) to ensure decisions concerning risks are informed, vehicles are safe and reliable, and program/project requirements are realistic and realized. This project pertains to the Orion mission, so it is geared toward a long duration Human Space Flight Program(s). For space missions, payload is a critical concept; balancing what hardware can be replaced by components verse by Orbital Replacement Units (ORU) or subassemblies is key. For this effort a database was created that combines mass and reliability data, called Mass and Reliability System or MaRS. The U.S. International Space Station (ISS) components are used as reference parts in the MaRS database. Using ISS components as a platform is beneficial because of the historical context and the environment similarities to a space flight mission. MaRS uses a combination of systems: International Space Station PART for failure data, Vehicle Master Database (VMDB) for ORU & components, Maintenance & Analysis Data Set (MADS) for operation hours and other pertinent data, & Hardware History Retrieval System (HHRS) for unit weights. MaRS is populated using a Visual Basic Application. Once populated, the excel spreadsheet is comprised of information on ISS components including: operation hours, random/nonrandom failures, software/hardware failures, quantity, orbital replaceable units (ORU), date of placement, unit weight, frequency of part, etc. The motivation for creating such a database will be the development of a mass/reliability parametric model to estimate mass required for replacement parts. Once complete, engineers working on future space flight missions will have access a mean time to failures and on parts along with their mass, this will be used to make proper decisions for long duration space flight missions

Barnes, Sarah↗

Modeling the Interactions Between Multiple Crack Closure Mechanisms at Threshold

A fatigue crack closure model is developed that includes interactions between the three closure mechanisms most likely to occur at threshold; plasticity, roughness, and oxide. This model, herein referred to as the CROP model (for Closure, Roughness, Oxide, and Plasticity), also includes the effects of out-of plane cracking and multi-axial loading. These features make the CROP closure model uniquely suited for, but not limited to, threshold applications. Rough cracks are idealized here as two-dimensional sawtooths, whose geometry induces mixed-mode crack- tip stresses. Continuum mechanics and crack-tip dislocation concepts are combined to relate crack face displacements to crack-tip loads. Geometric criteria are used to determine closure loads from crack-face displacements. Finite element results, used to verify model predictions, provide critical information about the locations where crack closure occurs.

Newman, John A.↗

Cloud-Based Numerical Weather Prediction for Near Real-Time Forecasting and Disaster Response

The use of cloud computing resources continues to grow within the public and private sector components of the weather enterprise as users become more familiar with cloud‐computing concepts, and competition among service providers continues to reduce costs and other barriers to entry. Cloud resources can also provide capabilities similar to high‐performance computing environments, supporting multi‐node systems required for near real‐time, regional weather predictions. Referred to as "Infrastructure as a Service", or IaaS, the use of cloud-based computing hardware in an on‐demand payment system allows for rapid deployment of a modeling system in environments lacking access to a large, supercomputing infrastructure. Use of IaaS capabilities to support regional weather prediction may be of particular interest to developing countries that have not yet established large supercomputing resources, but would otherwise benefit from a regional weather forecasting capability. Recently, collaborators from NASA Marshall Space Flight Center and Ames Research Center have developed a scripted, on‐demand capability for launching the NOAA/NWS Science and Training Resource Center (STRC) Environmental Modeling System (EMS), which includes pre‐compiled binaries of the latest version of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The WRF‐EMS provides scripting for downloading appropriate initial and boundary conditions from global models, along with higher‐resolution vegetation, land surface, and sea surface temperature data sets provided by the NASA Short‐term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center. This presentation will provide an overview of the modeling system capabilities and benchmarks performed on the Amazon Elastic Compute Cloud (EC2) environment. In addition, the presentation will discuss future opportunities to deploy the system in support of weather prediction in developing countries supported by NASA's SERVIR Project, which provides capacity building activities in environmental monitoring and prediction across a growing number of regional hubs throughout the world. Capacity‐building applications that extend numerical weather prediction to developing countries are intended to provide near real‐time applications to benefit public health, safety, and economic interests, but may have a greater impact during disaster events by providing a source for local predictions of weather‐related hazards, or impacts that local weather events may have during the recovery phase.

Molthan, Andrew↗

Double layers in contactor plasmas

The concept of using a hollow cathode to establish a low impedance contact between a spacecraft and the ambient plasma continues to gain in popularity, and is often then referred to as a plasma contactor. A growing number of studies indicate that large contact currents can be supported with small potential difference between the contactor and the ambient plasma. Results will be presented from a simple one-dimensional spherical model that obtains potentials from the solution of Poisson's equation, and particle densities from a turning point formalism that includes particle angular momentum. The neglect of collisions and magnetic field limits the realism. However, the results illustrate the effect of double layers that can form at the interface between contactor and ambient plasmas, when there is any voltage differential between the contactor and the ambient. The I-V characteristic of this model shows the usual space charge depends upon collection when the contactor flux is lower than some threshold; independence of I from variation in V when the flux is slightly greater than that threshold, and (numerical ?) instability for excessive flux suggesting the possibility of negative resistance. Even if a real I-V characteristic does not exhibit negative resistance, flat spots or high resistance regions may still be troublesome (or useful) to the total circuit.

Cooke, David L.↗

Methods of applied dynamics

The monograph was prepared to give the practicing engineer a clear understanding of dynamics with special consideration given to the dynamic analysis of aerospace systems. It is conceived to be both a desk-top reference and a refresher for aerospace engineers in government and industry. It could also be used as a supplement to standard texts for in-house training courses on the subject. Beginning with the basic concepts of kinematics and dynamics, the discussion proceeds to treat the dynamics of a system of particles. Both classical and modern formulations of the Lagrange equations, including constraints, are discussed and applied to the dynamic modeling of aerospace structures using the modal synthesis technique.

Rheinfurth, M. H.↗

Itegrated Test and Evaluation of a 4-Bed Molecular Sieve (4BMS) Carbon Dioxide Removtal System (CDRA), Mechanical Compressor Engineering Development Unit (EDU), and Sabitier Engineering Development Unit (EDU)

Currently on the International Space Station s (ISS) U.S. Segment, carbon dioxide (CO2) scrubbed from the cabin by a 4-Bed Molecular Sieve (4BMS) Carbon Dioxide Removal Assembly (CDRA) is vented overboard as a waste product. Likewise, the product hydrogen (H2) that will be generated by the Oxygen Generation Assembly (OGA) planned for installation will also be vented. A flight experiment has been proposed that will take the waste CO2 removed from the cabin, and via the catalytic Sabatier process, reduce it with waste H2 to generate water and methane. The water produced may provide cost and logistics savings for ISS by reducing the amount of water periodically re-supplied to orbit. To make this concept viable, a mechanical piston compressor and accumulator were developed for collecting and storing the CO2 from the CDRA. The compressor, accumulator and Sabatier system would be packaged together as one unit and referred to as the Carbon Dioxide Reduction Assembly (CRA). Testing was required to evaluate the performance of a 4BMS CDRA, compressor, accumulator, and Sabatier performance along with their operating rules when integrated together. This had been numerically modeled and simulated; however, testing was necessary to verify the results from the engineering analyses. Testing also allowed a better understanding of the practical inefficiencies and control issues involved in a fully integrated system versus the theoretical ideals in the model. This paper presents and discusses the results of an integrated engineering development unit test.

Knox, James C.↗

CONTAMINATION CONTROL FOR ULTRA-SENSITIVE LIFE DETECTION SCIENCE MISSIONS

"This study report summarizes technological developments in science-required contamination control for cost-capped, life-detection missions in the Solar System. Technology advances focus on developing implementable strategies to restrict contamination of the spacecraft and instruments by the launch vehicle hardware. Secondary bake out operations during cruise further reduce molecular contaminants down to femtomolar levels in the sample path. The study validated a full-spacecraft, deployable barrier design as an effective strategy to isolate the spacecraft from the pre-launch processing and launch environment (e.g., fairing acoustic materials). It accommodates late mounting of RTGs and other required prelaunch activities. A new, high-fidelity physics, contamination-transport model for particles (including cells and their parts) and science-relevant molecules (e.g., possible biomolecules) was developed to validate the barrier concept. Importantly, this model takes into account the physics of extremely clean surfaces achieved by the best traditional contamination engineering. The ability to deal with very low levels of particulate and molecular contamination makes this model unique among standard contamination modeling approaches. Modeling also demonstrated that a high-temperature bake out during interplanetary cruise of the sample collector that comprises the largest surface area in the sample path for an Enceladus orbiter reference mission, was extremely effective. This study included the evaluation of other details necessary for an effective contamination control strategy for life detection missions including feasibility of achieving parts per trillion level cleanliness for semi-volatile hydrocarbons in nitrogen purge gas, identification of launch vehicle services required for the baseline contamination control, and defining additional contamination control measures to be taken during launch operations. Key results of the study are: • New spacecraft barrier design that accommodates RTGs is readily cleanable and repairable. Deployment of a 1/3 scale model was successfully demonstrated. • The barrier reduces particle contamination (likely biological) from fairing to spacecraft by 1e-2 to 1e-3. • On-cruise bake-out of critical surfaces significantly reduced molecular contamination (by as much as 1e-12). Subsequently, the probability of a surface contamination particle being transported to an instrument by an ice particle is less than 5.1e-5 (for microbes specifically, 4.39e-10). The report concludes that a full-spacecraft barrier designed specifically for life-detection missions that require stringent control of particulate and molecular contaminates is an effective means of mitigating risks of false positive and negative results for life signature investigations. Further, secondary cleaning steps for critical sections of the sample path can be highly effective at reducing molecular contaminants to low femtomolar levels."

Contamination↗

Contamination Control for Ultra-Sensitive Life-Detection Missions

"This study report summarizes technological developments in science-required contamination control for cost-capped, life-detection missions in the Solar System. Technology advances focus on developing implementable strategies to restrict contamination of the spacecraft and instruments by the launch vehicle hardware. Secondary bake out operations during cruise further reduce molecular contaminants down to femtomolar levels in the sample path. The study validated a full-spacecraft, deployable barrier design as an effective strategy to isolate the spacecraft from the pre-launch processing and launch environment (e.g., fairing acoustic materials). It accommodates late mounting of RTGs and other required prelaunch activities. A new, high-fidelity physics, contamination-transport model for particles (including cells and their parts) and science-relevant molecules (e.g., possible biomolecules) was developed to validate the barrier concept. Importantly, this model takes into account the physics of extremely clean surfaces achieved by the best traditional contamination engineering. The ability to deal with very low levels of particulate and molecular contamination makes this model unique among standard contamination modeling approaches. Modeling also demonstrated that a high-temperature bake out during interplanetary cruise of the sample collector that comprises the largest surface area in the sample path for an Enceladus orbiter reference mission, was extremely effective. This study included the evaluation of other details necessary for an effective contamination control strategy for life detection missions including feasibility of achieving parts per trillion level cleanliness for semi-volatile hydrocarbons in nitrogen purge gas, identification of launch vehicle services required for the baseline contamination control, and defining additional contamination control measures to be taken during launch operations. Key results of the study are: • New spacecraft barrier design that accommodates RTGs is readily cleanable and repairable. Deployment of a 1/3 scale model was successfully demonstrated. • The barrier reduces particle contamination (likely biological) from fairing to spacecraft by 1e-2 to 1e-3. • On-cruise bake-out of critical surfaces significantly reduced molecular contamination (by as much as 1e-12). Subsequently, the probability of a surface contamination particle being transported to an instrument by an ice particle is less than 5.1e-5 (for microbes specifically, 4.39e-10). The report concludes that a full-spacecraft barrier designed specifically for life-detection missions that require stringent control of particulate and molecular contaminates is an effective means of mitigating risks of false positive and negative results for life signature investigations. Further, secondary cleaning steps for critical sections of the sample path can be highly effective at reducing molecular contaminants to low femtomolar levels."

contamination, life detection, barrier, modeling↗

Satellite Power Systems (SPS) concept definition study. Volume 2, part 2: System engineering

The latest technical and programmatic developments are considered as well as expansions of the Rockwell SPS cost model covering each phase of the program through the year 2030. Comparative cost/economic analyses cover elements of the satellite, construction system, space transportation vehicles and operations, and the ground receiving station. System plans to define time phased costs and planning requirements that support major milestones through the year 2000. A special analysis is included on natural resources required to build the SPS reference configuration. An appendix contains the SPS Work Breakdown Structure and dictionary along with detail cost data sheet on each system and main element of the program. Over 200 line items address DDT&E, theoretical first unit, investment cost per satellite, and operations charges for replacement capital and normal operations and maintenance costs.

Hanley, G. M.↗

Some physical and numerical aspects of computing the effects of viscosity on fluid flow

Some physical, analytical, and computational aspects of viscous flow are examined with reference to examples of computed flows. The discussion of the physical aspects covers the development of important scales used to reference flow phenomena in laminar and turbulent shear layers; the usefulness of the concepts of circulation and vorticity; and some relatively large-scale organized structures that have recently been identified in transitional and fully developed turbulent flows. Among the analytical aspects discussed are a compact presentation of the compressible Navier-Stokes equations, the Reynolds-averaged form of these equations, and a simplified description of some forms of turbulent models. Finally, results of a simulation of the onset of transition, direct turbulence simulations, and large-eddy simulations are given.

Lomax, H.↗

Vortical flow management techniques

The aerodynamic performance and controllability of advanced, highly maneuverable supersonic aircraft can be enhanced by means of 'vortex management', which refers to the purposeful manipulation and reordering of stable and concentrated vortical structures due to flow separations from highly swept leading edges and slender forebodies at moderate-to-high angles-of-attack. Attention is presently given to a variety of results obtained in the course of experiments on generic research models at NASA Langley, clarifying their underlying aerodynamics and evaluating their performance-improvement potential. The vortex-management concepts discussed encompass aerodynamic compartmentation of highly swept leading edges, vortex lift augmentation and modulation, and forebody vortex manipulation.

Rao, Dhanvada M.↗

Risk-Informed Safety Assurance and Probabilistic Assessment of Mission-Critical Software-Intensive Systems

This report validates and documents the detailed features and practical application of the framework for software intensive digital systems risk assessment and risk-informed safety assurance presented in the NASA PRA Procedures Guide for Managers and Practitioner. This framework, called herein the "Context-based Software Risk Model" (CSRM), enables the assessment of the contribution of software and software-intensive digital systems to overall system risk, in a manner which is entirely compatible and integrated with the format of a "standard" Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA), as currently documented and applied for NASA missions and applications. The CSRM also provides a risk-informed path and criteria for conducting organized and systematic digital system and software testing so that, within this risk-informed paradigm, the achievement of a quantitatively defined level of safety and mission success assurance may be targeted and demonstrated. The framework is based on the concept of context-dependent software risk scenarios and on the modeling of such scenarios via the use of traditional PRA techniques - i.e., event trees and fault trees - in combination with more advanced modeling devices such as the Dynamic Flowgraph Methodology (DFM) or other dynamic logic-modeling representations. The scenarios can be synthesized and quantified in a conditional logic and probabilistic formulation. The application of the CSRM method documented in this report refers to the MiniAERCam system designed and developed by the NASA Johnson Space Center.

Guarro, Sergio B.↗

Orbit Determination Sensitivity Analysis for the Europa Multiple Flyby Mission Concept

This paper details the results of parametric variations on the notional Europa Mission Concept tour navigation strategy on orbit determination delivery and knowledge errors and the associated statistical ∆V consumption. Approach maneuver placement at encounter minus two and a half days and at encounter minus three and a half days is compared to the reference encounter minus three days location as well as variations to the data cutoff for approach maneuver design, which is baselined one day prior to maneuver execution. An execution error model with fixed and proportional components assigned to the magnitude and pointing directions is applied to each maneuver in a Monte Carlo simulation. Variations on the fixed and proportional contributions to both component errors are simulated and analyzed to show the effect of varying thruster characterization levels. The effects of varying levels of a priori satellite ephemeris errors are also characterized in this study.

Boone, Dylan R.↗

Using Open Standards and NASA Open Source Simulation Tools to Model Artemis Base Camp Mission Timelines

The United States’ National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) has announced that the Artemis Program will return humans to the Moon, establishing a persistent presence with the Artemis Base Camp (ABC), and extend human exploration to Mars. The NASA Exploration Systems Simulations (NExSyS) team at NASA’s Johnson Space Center is using internationally developed simulation interoperability standards and NASA open source simulation tools to support Artemis concept, analysis, designs, development, training, and ultimately operations. The NExSyS team has been tasked to support early ABC architecture and mission analysis using mission time lines developed by the crew operations mission planning team. The NExSyS team is developing a distributed simulation framework with initial Artemis element implementations to model the ABC mission timelines using the international simulation interoperability standard High Level Architecture (HLA), the Simulation Interoperability Standards Organization’s Space Reference Federation Object Model (SpaceFOM), the NASA open source Trick Simulation Environment, and another NASA open source interface package called TrickHLA. The ABC architecture is composed of a number of key surface elements and resources. Some examples of modeled elements (also known as entities) are landers, habitats, rovers, logistics carriers, and astronauts. Some examples of modeled transferable and consumable resources are power, water, oxygen, nitrogen, scientific samples, and food. These entities and resources are modeled in a collection of individual simulations called Federates. A coordinated collection of interoperable federates is called a Federation and when these federates are tied together in a coordinated simulation run, it is referred to as a Federation Execution. The federates communicate through HLA using data exchange formats defined by a collection of machine readable files called Federation Object Models (FOMs). These FOM files are based on extensions to the SpaceFOM. This enables the instantiation and sharing of objects and interactions between federates in the federation. These provide for entity and resource tracking, object transfer, and data collection. Federate interactions are used to trigger events and notify federates of entity or resource transfers. For the initial implementation, the constituent federates are Trick-based simulations that use TrickHLA to provide the required HLA-base interoperability. These Trick-based simulations provide the required modeling for the individual Artemis elements along with the associated element resources. These federates provide a means to explore traverses between surface elements and exploration sites as scheduled in a mission timeline and explore the affects traverse times have on the overall mission timeline. The mission time lines are modeled using a Trick input file event handling capabilities. Each timeline operation is handled as individual simulation events, and triggered based on previous event status, time of operation, and simulated task completions. In addition, the ABC Federation can be used to perform Monte Carlo analysis. The Monte Carlo tool can vary the inputs, timings, and malfunctions to show how various contingencies in the mission can affect the mission timeline.

Keaton Craig Dodd↗

Assurance Equations: A Cost and Criticality Model for Optimizing Quality Assurance Surveillance

The cost of quality vs cost of failure correction has been a long-running topic of discussion within the Aerospace community. It leads directly to concepts of “risk tolerance”, and risk-based decision-making. It would be valuable if there was a way to compute the optimal investment in customer-executed quality assurance activities using defect significance with respect to performance objectives, the activities’ defect detection effectiveness, and the cost-penalty for late discovery of impactful defects. This optimization is particularly of interest to projects whose budget constraints significantly limit their risk management options.The cost to fix defects (i.e., failure correction) escalates as the project matures. There have been studies attempting to determine the relative cost of fixing defects discovered during various phases of a project life cycle with important implications, all of which suggest growth factors are large. The commonly referred to 1:10:100 rule represents a cost multiplier for repair/rework across the Design to Fab to Test hardware development phases. Cost premiums for QA activities also accumulate when they are treated as mandatory (due to schedule drag) or are performed later than their assigned phase.This paper describes the modeling of development phase -dependencies in the conduct of typical customer-executed quality assurance activities. Our initial modeling encompasses:• Distinct phases of the production lifecycle• Multiple kinds of Defects, each with some a-priori likelihood of being present• Each defect’s impact on performance Objectives for a type of hardware• The cost and efficacy of assurance techniques at detecting such Defects• The costs of fixing those Defects detected in a given phase of the production lifecycleThe model captures assurance activities’ abilities to Detect defects. Upon detection it is assumed that the Defect is immediately fixed. Defects that “escape” detection by some activity may thereafter be detected by a later activity, but by then the cost of fixing the Defect may have escalated. Defects are related to the performance Objectives they would detract from, were those Defects to remain present in the operating system.We have constructed and are exploring, a model that relates the importance of hardware system elements to mission objectives, the impact of types of Defects on those hardware types, the cost of customer-executed assurance activities (i.e., supplier controls) and their effectiveness towards reducing an impactful quality escape, and the cost of Defect correction across production phase. We describe the approach taken to select the key model aspects, why they are relevant to our NASA mission, and our efforts to populate it with relevant and contemporary data. We use a notional example to illustrate model design and function.

Plante, Jeannette↗