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At least 253 records · Page 14

Hypervelocity Impact Initiation of Explosive Transfer Lines

The Gemini, Apollo and Space Shuttle spacecraft utilized explosive transfer lines (ETL) in a number of applications. In each case the ETL was located behind substantial structure and the risk of impact initiation by micrometeoroids and orbital debris was negligible. A current NASA program is considering an ETL to synchronize the actuation of pyrobolts to release 12 capture latches in a contingency. The space constraints require placing the ETL 50 mm below the 1 mm thick 2024-T72 Whipple shield. The proximity of the ETL to the thin shield prompted analysts at NASA to perform a scoping analysis with a finite-difference hydrocode to calculate impact parameters that would initiate the ETL. The results suggest testing is required and a 12 shot test program with surplused Shuttle ETL is scheduled for February 2012 at the NASA White Sands Test Facility. Explosive initiation models are essential to the analysis and one exists in the CTH library for HNS I, but not the HNS II used in the Shuttle 2.5 gr/ft rigid shielded mild detonating cord (SMDC). HNS II is less sensitive than HNS I so it is anticipated that these results using the HNS I model are conservative. Until the hypervelocity impact test results are available, the only check on the analysis was comparison with the Shuttle qualification test result that a 22 long bullet would not initiate the SMDC. This result was reproduced by the hydrocode simulation. Simulations of the direct impact of a 7 km/s aluminum ball, impacting at 0 degree angle of incidence, onto the SMDC resulted in a 1.5 mm diameter ball initiating the SMDC and 1.0 mm ball failing to initiate it. Where one 1.0 mm ball could not initiate the SMDC, a cluster of six 1.0 mm diameter aluminum balls striking simultaneously could. Thus the impact parameters that will result in initiating SMDC located behind a Whipple shield will depend on how well the shield fragments the projectile and spreads the fragments. An end-to-end simulation of the impact of an aluminum ball onto a Whipple shield covering SMDC is problematic due to the hydrocode fracture models. Regardless, two simulations were performed resulting in a 5 mm ball initiating the SMDC and a 4 mm ball failing to initiate the SMDC.

Bjorkman, Michael D.↗

21st century trends in stratosphere-to-troposphere transport

One of the key questions in the air quality and climate sciences is how will tropospheric ozone concentrations change in the future. This will depend on two factors: changes in stratosphere-to-troposphere transport (STT) and changes in tropospheric chemistry. Here we aim to identify robust changes in STT using simulations from the Chemistry Climate Model Initiative (CCMI) under a common climate change scenario (RCP6.0). We use two idealized stratospheric tracers implemented in the models to examine changes in transport. We find that the strengthening of the shallow branch of the Brewer-Dobson circulation (BDC) in the lower stratosphere and of the upper part of the Hadley cell in the upper troposphere lead to enhanced STT in the subtropics. The acceleration of the deep branch of the BDC in the NH and changes in eddy transport contribute to increase STT at high latitudes. In the SH, the deep branch does not accelerate due to the dynamical effects of the ozone hole recovery.

stratosphere-to-troposphere transport↗

Development of Fast Decay-Energy Spectroscopy With Magnetic Microcalorimeters

Decay energy spectroscopy (DES) is an increasingly important radiometric technique arising from the unique thermal detection physics and the precision of low-temperature microcalorimetry. DES can enable high-precision analysis of very small amounts of radioactive material with simple and rapid sample preparation, making it a key new tool for nuclear safeguards, nuclear forensics, the improvement of nuclear data, measurements of absolute activity, and other applications. For problems in nuclear safeguards and nuclear forensics it is highly desirable to increase the count rates achievable in DES, while maintaining simple and rapid sample preparation. Here, in this report, we describe progress in a new project to achieve high count rates in DES by taking advantage of the physics of magnetic microcalorimetry. We describe the results of initial modeling and experiment to validate the idea, a sample fabrication technique suitable for nuclear materials laboratories, the preparation and initial tests of paramagnetic Au-Er alloy in thin foil form, and the development of a sensing coil geometry that will perform well with the increased-thickness sensor used in the new technique.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

The evolution of Florida thunderstorms on 23 September 1979 as observed by an airborne passive microwave radiometer

The observations made by the aircraft are examined in order to determine sensing parameters for future satellite missions. Minimum brightness temperatures substantially below atmospheric temperatures are revealed in the data. Scattering by an ice layer within the clouds is postulated as the cause. A one-dimensional cloud model initialized with a representative local sounding gives reasonable values for the height and thickness of this ice layer. The model cloud is similar to the observed cloud in both cloud top height and radar reflectivity. A 'mystery' feature observed by the microwave sensors as an area of enhanced scattering, suggesting an updraft core of graupel that in turn is indicative of a convective tower is considered of particular interest. It is noted that this feature was masked in the visible and infrared sensors by the presence of upper-level semitransparent cirrus. The detection of this mystery feature is seen as suggesting that passive microwave sensing of convective areas may provide information regarding the location and/or strength of the more active towers which cannot be detected now with conventional visible or infrared instruments because of a uniform higher-level cloud cover.

Hakkarinen, I. M.↗

Risk-Based Fire Safety Experiment Definition for Manned Spacecraft

Risk methodology is used to define experiments to be conducted in space which will help to construct and test the models required for accident sequence identification. The development of accident scenarios is based on the realization that whether damage occurs depends on the time competition of two processes: the ignition and creation of an adverse environment, and the detection and suppression activities. If the fire grows and causes damage faster than it is detected and suppressed, then an accident occurred. The proposed integrated experiments will provide information on individual models that apply to each of the above processes, as well as previously unidentified interactions and processes, if any. Initially, models that are used in terrestrial fire risk assessments are considered. These include heat and smoke release models, detection and suppression models, as well as damage models. In cases where the absence of gravity substantially invalidates a model, alternate models will be developed. Models that depend on buoyancy effects, such as the multizone compartment fire models, are included in these cases. The experiments will be performed in a variety of geometries simulating habitable areas, racks, and other spaces. These simulations will necessitate theoretical studies of scaling effects. Sensitivity studies will also be carried out including the effects of varying oxygen concentrations, pressures, fuel orientation and geometry, and air flow rates. The experimental apparatus described herein includes three major modules: the combustion, the fluids, and the command and power modules.

Apostolakis, G. E.↗

An adaptive human response mechanism controlling the V/STOL aircraft. Appendix 3: The adaptive control model of a pilot in V/STOL aircraft control loops

Importance of the role of human operator in control systems has led to the particular area of manual control theory. Human describing functions were developed to model human behavior for manual control studies to take advantage of the successful and safe human operations. A single variable approach is presented that can be extended for multi-variable tasks where a low order human response model is used together with its rules, to adapt the model on-line, being capable of responding to the changes in the controlled element dynamics. Basic control theory concepts are used to combine the model, constrained with the physical observations, particularly, for the case of aircraft control. Pilot experience is represented as the initial model parameters. An adaptive root-locus method is presented as the adaptation law of the model where the closed loop bandwidth of the system is to be preserved in a stable manner with the adjustments of the pilot handling qualities which relate the latter to the closed loop bandwidth and damping of the closed loop pilot aircraft combination. A Kalman filter parameter estimator is presented as the controlled element identifier of the adaptive model where any discrepancies of the open loop dynamics from the presented one, are sensed to be compensated.

Kucuk, Senol↗

Simulating Sulfate Aerosol Size in the Hunga Tonga Plume: Comparisons with Observations

Using the NASA GEOS Chemistry Climate Model (CCM) coupled to a detailed sectional aerosol microphysical model, we have simulated the January 2022 Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai (HTHH) plume. We have developed a version of the Global Modeling Initiative (GMI) chemistry mechanism to include the requisite sulfur chemistry and coupled it to the Community Aerosol and Radiation Model for Atmospheres (CARMA) sectional aerosol microphysics within the GEOS CCM. Our simulations focus on the lifecycle of stratospheric sulfur injected by the eruption–from the oxidation of the injected sulfur dioxide to the nucleation, growth, coagulation, hydration, and eventual settling of the volcanic sulfate aerosol particles. In order to constrain the simulated microphysics, we focus on comparing our model to observations with aerosol size information, namely in-situ particle counter observations and multi-wavelength satellite observations from OMPS-LP and SAGE-III. This eruption provides an interesting test case for our model; both the modeled gas-phase chemistry as well as the modeled aerosol microphysics are perturbed by the massive injection of water that accompanied the primary sulfur emissions from the eruption.

aerosols↗

The dynamic fission instability and the origin of the Moon

A theory for the formation of the Moon which involves the dynamic fission of a rapidly rotating protoplanet, which might then result in the formation of the Earth and the Moon is discussed. The fission hypothesis was originally based on analytic, linearized models of the growth of asymmetry in homogenous bodies. The fully nonlinear evolution of the dynamic instability in inviscid, compressible bodies was calculated by numerical techniques. It was found that the dynamic instability degenerates into the ejection of a ring of matter with a substantial fraction of the mass, leaving behind a central body with most of the mass. The linearized analytical approach and the numerical approach were used to show that dynamic fission probably does not occur in rocky protoplanets. The numerical calculations are performed with a fully three dimensional hydrodynamical code, which allows the nonlinear, time evolution of the instability to be followed. Sequences of uniformly rotating equilibria were constructed and are used as the initial models for the fission calculations. An initially imposed asymmetry consisting of a 10% binary perturbation in the density was found to disappear on the rotational period time scale. No dynamic instability occurred. This result are verified by including the velocity dissipation terms in the linearized analysis of the stability of a Maclaurin spheroid: the dynamic instability disappears when the simulated viscous dissipation terms are included. It is concluded that any rocky body, even with considerable partial melt or a molten core, should be stable to dynamic fission; any rotational instability that occurs can only result in equatorial mass loss.

Boss, A. P.↗

Rapid monitoring of fermentations: a feasibility study on biological 2,3-butanediol production

2,3-butanediol (2,3-BDO) is an economically important platform chemical that can be produced by the fermentation of sugars using an engineered strain of Zymomonas mobilis . These fermentations require continuous monitoring and modification of fermentation conditions to maximize 2,3-BDO yields and minimize the production of the undesired coproducts glycerol and acetoin. Because of the time required for sampling and off-line chromatographic measurement of fermentation samples, the ability of fermentation scientists to modify fermentation conditions in a timely manner is limited. The goal of this study was to test if near-infrared spectroscopy (NIRS) along with multivariate statistics could reduce the time needed for this analysis and enable real-time monitoring and control of the fermentation. In this work we developed partial least squares (PLS) calibration models to predict the concentrations of glucose, xylose, 2,3-BDO, acetoin, and glycerol in fermentations via NIRS using two different spectrometers and two different spectroscopy modalities. We first evaluated the feasibility of rapid NIRS monitoring through experiments where we measured the signals from each analyte of interest and built NIRS-based PLS models using spectra from synthetic samples containing uncorrelated concentrations of these analytes. All analytes showed unique spectral signatures, and this initial modeling showed that all analytes could be detected simultaneously. We then began work with samples from laboratory fermentation experiments and tested the feasibility of regression model development across two spectral collection modalities (at-line and on-line) and two instruments: a laboratory-grade instrument and a low-cost instrument with a more limited spectral range. All modalities showed promise in the ability to monitor Z. mobilis fermentations of glucose and xylose to 2,3-BDO. The low-cost instrument displayed a lower signal-to-noise ratio than the laboratory-grade instrument, which led to comparatively lower performance overall, but still provided sufficient accuracy to monitor fermentation trends. While the ease of use of on-line monitoring systems was favored as compared to at-line systems due to the lack of sampling required and potential for automated process control, we observed some decrease in performance due to the additional complexity of the sample matrix. We have demonstrated that NIRS combined with multivariate analysis can be used for at-line and on-line monitoring of the concentrations of glucose, xylose, 2,3-BDO, acetoin, and glycerol during Z. mobilis fermentations. The decrease in signal-to-noise ratio when using a low-cost spectrometer led to greater prediction error than the laboratory-grade spectrometer for at-line monitoring. The on-line monitoring modality showed great promise for real time process control via NIRS.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Model Specification of Droop-Controlled, Grid-Forming Inverters (REGFM_A1)

This document describes a positive-sequence model of droop-controlled, grid-forming (GFM) inverter-based resources (IBRs). It can be considered as an initial model for evaluating the impacts of GFM IBRs on the transients and dynamics of transmission systems.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Constitutive and damage material modeling in a high pressure hydrogen environment

Numerous components in reusable space propulsion systems such as the SSME are exposed to high pressure gaseous hydrogen environments. Flow areas and passages in the fuel turbopump, fuel and oxidizer preburners, main combustion chamber, and injector assembly contain high pressure hydrogen either high in purity or as hydrogen rich steam. Accurate constitutive and damage material models applicable to high pressure hydrogen environments are therefore needed for engine design and analysis. Existing constitutive and cyclic crack initiation models were evaluated only for conditions of oxidizing environments. The main objective is to evaluate these models for applicability to high pressure hydrogen environments.

Russell, D. A.↗

Waterhammer Transient Simulation and Model Anchoring for the Robotic Lunar Lander Propulsion System

Waterhammer transients have the potential to adversely impact propulsion system design if not properly addressed. Waterhammer can potentially lead to system plumbing, and component damage. Multi-thruster propulsion systems also develop constructive/destructive wave interference which becomes difficult to predict without detailed models. Therefore, it is important to sufficiently characterize propulsion system waterhammer in order to develop a robust design with minimal impact to other systems. A risk reduction activity was performed at Marshall Space Flight Center to develop a tool for estimating waterhammer through the use of anchored simulation for the Robotic Lunar Lander (RLL) propulsion system design. Testing was performed to simulate waterhammer surges due to rapid valve closure and consisted of twenty-two series of waterhammer tests, resulting in more than 300 valve actuations. These tests were performed using different valve actuation schemes and three system pressures. Data from the valve characterization tests were used to anchor the models that employed MSCSoftware.EASY5 v.2010 to model transient fluid phenomena by using transient forms of mass and energy conservation. The anchoring process was performed by comparing initial model results to experimental data and then iterating the model input to match the simulation results with the experimental data. The models provide good correlation with experimental results, supporting the use of EASY5 as a tool to model fluid transients and provide a baseline for future RLL system modeling. This paper addresses tasks performed during the waterhammer risk reduction activity for the RLL propulsion system. The problem of waterhammer simulation anchoring as applied to the RLL system is discussed with results from the corresponding experimental valve tests. Important factors for waterhammer mitigation are discussed along with potential design impacts to the RLL propulsion system.

Stein, William B.↗

Large-Scale Transport into the Arctic: The Roles of the Midlatitude Jet and the Hadley Cell

Transport from the Northern Hemisphere (NH) midlatitudes to the Arctic plays a crucial role in determining the abundance of trace gases and aerosols that are important to Arctic climate via impacts on radiation and chemistry. Here we examine this transport using an idealized tracer with a fixed lifetime and predominantly midlatitude land-based sources in models participating in the Chemistry Climate Model Initiative (CCMI). We show that there is a 25%-45% difference in the Arctic concentrations of this tracer among the models. This spread is correlated with the spread in the location of the Pacific jet, as well as the spread in the location of the Hadley Cell (HC) edge, which varies consistently with jet latitude. Our results suggest that it is likely that the HC-related zonal-mean meridional transport rather than the jet-related eddy mixing is the major contributor to the inter-model spread in the transport of land-based tracers into the Arctic. Specifically, in models with a more northern jet, the HC generally extends further north and the tracer source region is mostly covered by surface southward flow associated with the lower branch of the HC, resulting in less efficient transport poleward to the Arctic. During boreal summer, there are poleward biases in jet location in free-running models, and these models likely underestimate the rate of transport into the Arctic. Models using specified dynamics do not have biases in the jet location, but do have biases in the surface meridional flow, which may result in differences in transport into the Arctic. In addition to the land-based tracer, the midlatitude-to-Arctic transport is further examined by another idealized tracer with zonally uniform sources. With equal sources from both land and ocean, the inter-model spread of this zonally uniform tracer is more related to variations in parameterized convection over oceans rather than variations in HC extent, particularly during boreal winter. This suggests that transport of land-based and oceanic tracers or aerosols towards the Arctic differs in pathways and therefore their corresponding inter-model variabilities result from different physical processes.

chemistry climate models↗

Multi-Fidelity Learning for Distribution System Voltage Probabilistic Analysis with High Penetration of PVs

This paper proposes a multi-fidelity learning approach for distribution voltage probabilistic analysis with high penetration of PVs. Unlike the existing machine learning-based approaches that require a large number of high fidelity data to achieve satisfactory results, our approach strategically leverage massive low fidelity data from inaccurate model simulations and limited high fidelity historical data. The key idea is to use low-fidelity data to establish an initial model and then the high-fidelity data to calibrate and correct the constructed low-fidelity model. This allows us to fuse low- and high-fidelity data, yielding a high fidelity prediction model. Results obtained from a realistic feeder in US with 80% penetration of PVs show that the proposed approach can achieve a similar accuracy to the one with a large number of high fidelity data. This significantly highlights the advantages of the proposed method as compared to existing data-hungry machine learning methods. Different levels of fidelity data and their impacts are also investigated.

distribution system↗

WBS 4.1.2.31 Bioproduct Transition System Dynamics

Bioproducts are chemicals derived from a biomass feedstock; they can be produced on their own or as co-products of a biorefinery that also produces biofuels. Bioproducts have historically been difficult to scale up and bring to market, despite a broad understanding developed within BETO of the various conversion processes that can be used to produce bioproducts. Expanding the bioproducts industry by bringing more bioproducts to market would have a variety of positive impacts. Growth in the bioproducts industry would support the biofuels industry by enabling biorefinery co-products that yield additional revenue streams, allowing biofuel selling prices to be reduced and expanding the biofuels market. A larger bioproducts industry also has the potential to reduce carbon and other emissions associated with the U.S. chemical sector and contribute to increased price stability in some areas of the chemical market by shifting portions of the chemical sector away from reliance on fossil feedstocks. The key barrier to realizing these positive impacts is a lack of knowledge around the factors that prevent or enable bioproducts to reach the commercial market. To date, there has been essentially no research done on how successful bioproducts (commercially produced bioproducts that have captured market share) become successful, why failed bioproducts fail, and what the similarities and differences are between successful and failed bioproducts. The current project addresses this knowledge gap with a decision support tool that can be used by investors, technology developers and government agencies to bring more bioproducts to market, thereby simultaneously growing the bioproducts and biofuels industries. Development of the decision support tool was based on research on the technology development process and success rates in analogous industries, data gathered during previous BETO-funded projects, and a series of interviews with subject-matter experts within BETO, the bioproducts industry, and the investment community. This information formed a knowledge base around how bioproducts are developed from applied research to commercial scale was assembled, which was used to build the Bioproduct Transition Dynamics (BTD) model, a system dynamics (SD) model that tracks bioproduct development projects from applied research through the 'valley of death' of piloting and demoing to commercial scale production. The end-of-project goal is to release the BTD, along with supporting documentation, as a transparent open-source model that will inform decisions around bioproduct development and investments and enable more bioproducts to reach the market. The BTD takes as inputs techno-economic data on specific bioproducts, behavioral parameters for developers and investors, expectations around government support, and exogenous market factors. Model outputs include bioproduct technological progress over time, a cash flow statement for the development project, and market share estimates. Following initial model development, a sensitivity analysis was performed on a subset of model inputs to determine, first, if the BTD could be used to answer analysis questions of interest to BETO, and second, which of the inputs considered were most influential on bioproduct success. Results indicate that the BTD can be used to identify scenarios that enable bioproduct development, and that 'soft' or semi-quantitative factors play a large role in determining if a bioproduct will reach the market. A workshop was also held for subject-matter experts and prospective BTD users in July 2018. The workshop covered BTD model logic, input data and assumptions as well as the sensitivity analysis results and a discussion of potential use cases. Workshop feedback was used to identify additional model development tasks and was incorporated into a draft technical report completed in September 2018. BTD model development, validation and application will continue through 2019.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

A Lagrangian Simulation of Subsonic Aircraft Exhaust Emissions

To estimate the effect of subsonic and supersonic aircraft exhaust on the stratospheric concentration of NO(y), we employ a trajectory model initialized with air parcels based on the standard release scenarios. The supersonic exhaust simulations are in good agreement with 2D and 3D model results and show a perturbation of about 1-2 ppbv of NO(y) in the stratosphere. The subsonic simulations show that subsonic emissions are almost entirely trapped below the 380 K potential temperature surface. Our subsonic results contradict results from most other models, which show exhaust products penetrating above 380 K, as summarized. The disagreement can likely be attributed to an excessive vertical diffusion in most models of the strong vertical gradient in NO(y) that forms at the boundary between the emission zone and the stratosphere above 380 K. Our results suggest that previous assessments of the impact of subsonic exhaust emission on the stratospheric region above 380 K should be considered to be an upper bound.

Schoeberl, M. R.↗

Ongoing Development of NASA's Global Land Data Assimilation System

NASA's Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) produces global fields of land surface states (e.g., soil moisture and temperature) and fluxes (e.g., latent heat flux and runoff) by driving offline land surface models with observation-based inputs, using the Land Information System (LIS) software. Since production began in 2001, GLDAS has supported more than 100 scientific investigations and applications. Some examples are GEWEX and NASA Energy and Water Cycle Study (NEWS) global water and energy budget analyses, interpretations of hydrologic data derived from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite mission, and forecast model initiation studies at NOAA and NASA. At the same time, the GLDAS team has continued improve results through the development of new modeling and data assimilation techniques. Here we describe several recent and ongoing innovations. These include global implementation of a runoff routing procedure, GRACE data assimilation, advanced snow cover assimilation, and irrigation modeling.

Rodell, Matthew↗

A Machine Learning Examination of Hydroxyl Radical Differences Among Model Simulations for CCMI-1

Hydroxyl radical (OH) plays critical roles within the troposphere, such as determining the lifetime of methane (CH4), yet is challenging to model due to its fast cycling and dependence on a multitude of sources and sinks. As a result, the reasons for variations in OH and the resulting CH4 lifetime (TCH4), both between models and in time, are difficult to diagnose. We apply a neural network (NN) approach to address this issue within a group of models that participated in the Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative (CCMI). Analysis of the historical specified dynamics simulations performed for CCMI indicates that the primary drivers of TCH4 differences among ten models are the flux of UV light to the troposphere (indicated by the photolysis frequency JO1D) due mostly to clouds, mixing ratio of tropospheric ozone (O3), the abundance of nitrogen oxides (NOx≡NO+NO2), and details of the various chemical mechanisms that drive OH. Water vapor, carbon monoxide (CO), the ratio of NO:NOx, and formaldehyde (HCHO) explain moderate differences in TCH4, while isoprene, CH4, the photolysis frequency of NO2 by visible light (JNO2), overhead O3 column, and temperature account for little-to-no model variation in CH4. We also apply the NNs to analysis of temporal trends in OH from 1980 to 2015. All models that participated in the specified dynamics historical simulation for CCMI demonstrate a decline in CH4 during the analysed timeframe. The significant contributors to this trend, in order of importance, are tropospheric O3, JO1D, NOx, and H2O, with CO also causing substantial interannual variability in OH burden. Finally, the identified trends in TCH4 are compared to calculated trends in the tropospheric mean OH concentration from previous work, based on analysis of observations. The comparison reveals a robust result for the effect of rising water vapor on OH and CH4, imparting an increasing and decreasing trend of about 0.5% decade(exp -1), respectively. The responses due to NOx, O3 column, and temperature are also in reasonably good agreement between the two studies, though a discrepancy in the CH4 response highlights a need for further examination of the CH4 feedback on the abundance of OH.

Julie M Nicely↗