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At least 253 records · Page 14
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Initialized Earth system prediction from subseasonal to decadal timescales

Initialized Earth system predictions are made by starting a numerical prediction model in a state as consistent as possible to observations, and running it forward in time for up to ten years. Skillful predictions at time slices from subseasonal to seasonal (S2S), seasonal to interannual (S2I) and seasonal to decadal (S2D) offer information useful for various stakeholders, from agriculture to water resource management, and human and infrastructure safety. In this Review, we examine the processes influencing predictability, and discuss estimates of skill across S2S, S2I and S2D timescales. There are encouraging signs that skillful predictions can be made: at S2S timescales, there has been some skill in predicting the Madden-Julian Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation; at S2I in predicting the El Niño-Southern Oscillation; and at S2D, in predicting variability in North Atlantic sea surface temperatures. However, challenges remain, and future work must prioritise reducing model error, more effectively communicating forecasts to users, and increasing process and mechanistic understanding that could increase predictive skill and, in turn, confidence. As numerical models progress towards Earth system models, initialized predictions are expanding to include prediction of sea-ice, air pollution, terrestrial and ocean biochemistry which can bring clear benefit to society and various stakeholders.

climate prediction↗
NASA NTRS2006

Precipitation and Latent Heating Distributions from Satellite Passive Microwave Radiometry. Part II: Evaluation of Estimates Using Independent Data

Rainfall rate estimates from spaceborne microwave radiometers are generally accepted as reliable by a majority of the atmospheric science community. One of the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) facility rain-rate algorithms is based upon passive microwave observations from the TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI). In Part I of this series, improvements of the TMI algorithm that are required to introduce latent heating as an additional algorithm product are described. Here, estimates of surface rain rate, convective proportion, and latent heating are evaluated using independent ground-based estimates and satellite products. Instantaneous, 0.5 deg. -resolution estimates of surface rain rate over ocean from the improved TMI algorithm are well correlated with independent radar estimates (r approx. 0.88 over the Tropics), but bias reduction is the most significant improvement over earlier algorithms. The bias reduction is attributed to the greater breadth of cloud-resolving model simulations that support the improved algorithm and the more consistent and specific convective/stratiform rain separation method utilized. The bias of monthly 2.5 -resolution estimates is similarly reduced, with comparable correlations to radar estimates. Although the amount of independent latent heating data is limited, TMI-estimated latent heating profiles compare favorably with instantaneous estimates based upon dual-Doppler radar observations, and time series of surface rain-rate and heating profiles are generally consistent with those derived from rawinsonde analyses. Still, some biases in profile shape are evident, and these may be resolved with (a) additional contextual information brought to the estimation problem and/or (b) physically consistent and representative databases supporting the algorithm. A model of the random error in instantaneous 0.5 deg. -resolution rain-rate estimates appears to be consistent with the levels of error determined from TMI comparisons with collocated radar. Error model modifications for nonraining situations will be required, however. Sampling error represents only a portion of the total error in monthly 2.5 -resolution TMI estimates; the remaining error is attributed to random and systematic algorithm errors arising from the physical inconsistency and/or nonrepresentativeness of cloud-resolving-model-simulated profiles that support the algorithm.

Yang, Song↗
NASA NTRS1986

The evaluation of the OSGLR algorithm for restructurable controls

The detection and isolation of commercial aircraft control surface and actuator failures using the orthogonal series generalized likelihood ratio (OSGLR) test was evaluated. The OSGLR algorithm was chosen as the most promising algorithm based on a preliminary evaluation of three failure detection and isolation (FDI) algorithms (the detection filter, the generalized likelihood ratio test, and the OSGLR test) and a survey of the literature. One difficulty of analytic FDI techniques and the OSGLR algorithm in particular is their sensitivity to modeling errors. Therefore, methods of improving the robustness of the algorithm were examined with the incorporation of age-weighting into the algorithm being the most effective approach, significantly reducing the sensitivity of the algorithm to modeling errors. The steady-state implementation of the algorithm based on a single cruise linear model was evaluated using a nonlinear simulation of a C-130 aircraft. A number of off-nominal no-failure flight conditions including maneuvers, nonzero flap deflections, different turbulence levels and steady winds were tested. Based on the no-failure decision functions produced by off-nominal flight conditions, the failure detection performance at the nominal flight condition was determined. The extension of the algorithm to a wider flight envelope by scheduling the linear models used by the algorithm on dynamic pressure and flap deflection was also considered. Since simply scheduling the linear models over the entire flight envelope is unlikely to be adequate, scheduling of the steady-state implentation of the algorithm was briefly investigated.

Bonnice, W. F.↗
NASA NTRS1979

Voyager high gain antenna calibration and pointing

A mathematical description of the data reduction technique used in analyzing Voyager calibration data is presented. To achieve the required telecommunication link performance, highly accurate pointing of the Voyager high gain antenna boresight relative to earth is necessary. To provide the optimum pointing, in-flight calibrations of the high gain antenna pointing mechanism are regularly made, and the design of the calibration and the antenna error models is delineated. It is shown that due to the use of wide angle sun sensors for celestial attitude control, the Voyager antenna error model differs from those of previous missions. Results of the in-flight calibrations and their implementation in improving the antenna pointing are also presented.

Jahanshahi, M. H.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Monte Carlo Simulations of the Formation Flying Dynamics for the Magnetospheric Multiscale (MMS) Mission

The MMS mission is an ambitious space physics mission that will fly 4 spacecraft in a tetrahedron formation in a series of highly elliptical orbits in order to study magnetic reconnection in the Earth's magnetosphere. The mission design is comprised of a combination of deterministic orbit adjust and random maintenance maneuvers distributed over the 2.5 year mission life. Formal verification of the requirements is achieved by analysis through the use of the End-to-End (ETE) code, which is a modular simulation of the maneuver operations over the entire mission duration. Error models for navigation accuracy (knowledge) and maneuver execution (control) are incorporated to realistically simulate the possible maneuver scenarios that might be realized These error models, coupled with the complex formation flying physics, lead to non-trivial effects that must be taken into account by the ETE automation. Using the ETE code, the MMS Flight Dynamics team was able to demonstrate that the current mission design satisfies the mission requirements.

Schiff, Conrad↗
NASA NTRS2011

A Maximum Likelihood Approach to Determine Sensor Radiometric Response Coefficients for NPP VIIRS Reflective Solar Bands

Optical sensors aboard Earth orbiting satellites such as the next generation Visible/Infrared Imager/Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) assume that the sensors radiometric response in the Reflective Solar Bands (RSB) is described by a quadratic polynomial, in relating the aperture spectral radiance to the sensor Digital Number (DN) readout. For VIIRS Flight Unit 1, the coefficients are to be determined before launch by an attenuation method, although the linear coefficient will be further determined on-orbit through observing the Solar Diffuser. In determining the quadratic polynomial coefficients by the attenuation method, a Maximum Likelihood approach is applied in carrying out the least-squares procedure. Crucial to the Maximum Likelihood least-squares procedure is the computation of the weight. The weight not only has a contribution from the noise of the sensor s digital count, with an important contribution from digitization error, but also is affected heavily by the mathematical expression used to predict the value of the dependent variable, because both the independent and the dependent variables contain random noise. In addition, model errors have a major impact on the uncertainties of the coefficients. The Maximum Likelihood approach demonstrates the inadequacy of the attenuation method model with a quadratic polynomial for the retrieved spectral radiance. We show that using the inadequate model dramatically increases the uncertainties of the coefficients. We compute the coefficient values and their uncertainties, considering both measurement and model errors.

Lei, Ning↗
NASA NTRS1973

Orbit determination for low-thrust spacecraft: Concepts and analysis

Earth-based orbit determination capability for SEP spacecraft in multistation tracking and in thrust subsystem error modeling is described. Five different tracking strategies are applied to a 15 day segment of an Encke rendezvous mission. Both optimal and suboptimal orbit determination performance are determined for a wide range of process noise parameter values. The multi-station tracking techniques are found to be extremely effective, reducing orbit determination errors by orders of magnitude over that obtained with conventional single-station tracking. Explicitly differenced multistation data (QVLBI) is found to be least sensitive to gross modeling errors, but if a reasonably good process noise model is available, explicit differencing is not required.

Mcdanell, J. P.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Flight Test Results of a GPS-Based Pitot-Static Calibration Method Using Output-Error Optimization for a Light Twin-Engine Airplane

As part of the NASA Aviation Safety Program (AvSP), a novel pitot-static calibration method was developed to allow rapid in-flight calibration for subscale aircraft while flying within confined test areas. This approach uses Global Positioning System (GPS) technology coupled with modern system identification methods that rapidly computes optimal pressure error models over a range of airspeed with defined confidence bounds. This method has been demonstrated in subscale flight tests and has shown small 2- error bounds with significant reduction in test time compared to other methods. The current research was motivated by the desire to further evaluate and develop this method for full-scale aircraft. A goal of this research was to develop an accurate calibration method that enables reductions in test equipment and flight time, thus reducing costs. The approach involved analysis of data acquisition requirements, development of efficient flight patterns, and analysis of pressure error models based on system identification methods. Flight tests were conducted at The University of Tennessee Space Institute (UTSI) utilizing an instrumented Piper Navajo research aircraft. In addition, the UTSI engineering flight simulator was used to investigate test maneuver requirements and handling qualities issues associated with this technique. This paper provides a summary of piloted simulation and flight test results that illustrates the performance and capabilities of the NASA calibration method. Discussion of maneuver requirements and data analysis methods is included as well as recommendations for piloting technique.

Martos, Borja↗
NASA NTRS2004

Precipitation and Latent Heating Distributions from Satellite Passive Microwave Radiometry: Evaluation of Estimates Using Independent Data - Part 2

Rainfall rate estimates from space-borne k&ents are generally accepted as reliable by a majority of the atmospheric science commu&y. One-of the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRh4M) facility rain rate algorithms is based upon passive microwave observations fiom the TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI). Part I of this study describes improvements in the TMI algorithm that are required to introduce cloud latent heating and drying as additional algorithm products. Here, estimates of surface rain rate, convective proportion, and latent heating are evaluated using independent ground-based estimates and satellite products. Instantaneous, OP5resolution estimates of surface rain rate over ocean fiom the improved TMI algorithm are well correlated with independent radar estimates (r approx. 0.88 over the Tropics), but bias reduction is the most significant improvement over forerunning algorithms. The bias reduction is attributed to the greater breadth of cloud-resolving model simulations that support the improved algorithm, and the more consistent and specific convective/stratiform rain separation method utilized. The bias of monthly, 2.5 deg. -resolution estimates is similarly reduced, with comparable correlations to radar estimates. Although the amount of independent latent heating data are limited, TMI estimated latent heating profiles compare favorably with instantaneous estimates based upon dual-Doppler radar observations, and time series of surface rain rate and heating profiles are generally consistent with those derived from rawinsonde analyses. Still, some biases in profile shape are evident, and these may be resolved with: (a) additional contextual information brought to the estimation problem, and/or; (b) physically-consistent and representative databases supporting the algorithm. A model of the random error in instantaneous, 0.5 deg-resolution rain rate estimates appears to be consistent with the levels of error determined from TMI comparisons to collocated radar. Error model modifications for non-raining situations will be required, however. Sampling error appears to represent only a fraction of the total error in monthly, 2S0-resolution TMI estimates; the remaining error is attributed to physical inconsistency or non-representativeness of cloud-resolving model simulated profiles supporting the algorithm.

Yang, Song↗
NASA NTRS1991

An experimental study of nonlinear dynamic system identification

A technique based on the Minimum Model Error optimal estimation approach is employed for robust identification of a nonlinear dynamic system. A simple harmonic oscillator with quadratic position feedback was simulated on an analog computer. With the aid of analog measurements and an assumed linear model, the Minimum Model Error Algorithm accurately identifies the quadratic nonlinearity. The tests demonstrate that the method is robust with respect to prior ignorance of the nonlinear system model and with respect to measurement record length, regardless of initial conditions.

Stry, Greselda I.↗
NASA NTRS1980

Estimation of the accuracy of dynamic flight-determined coefficients

This paper discusses means of assessing the accuracy of maximum likelihood parameter estimates obtained from dynamic flight data. The commonly used analytical predictors of accuracy are compared from both statistical and simplified geometric standpoints. Emphasizing practical considerations, such as modeling error, the accuracy predictions are evaluated with real and simulated data. Improved computations of the Cramer-Rao bound to correct large discrepancies caused by colored noise and modeling error are presented. This corrected Cramer-Rao bound is the best available analytical predictor of accuracy. Engineering judgement, aided by such analytical tools, is the final arbiter of accuracy estimation.

Maine, R. E.↗
NASA NTRS1983

Accuracy of earth albedo estimates from wide-angle radiation measurements

The instantaneous resolution and accuracy that can be expected from two inversion techniques to be used in the Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE) are examined. It is shown that measurement errors are magnified by the numerical filter and that this magnification is a function of the magnitude of the inversion factor. By using singular value decomposition, these magnitudes can be reduced to improve the estimates. A simulation of the estimation process using an albedo field derived from scanning radiometer data shows that retaining 6 of the 13 singular values gives the best results. If there are no bidirectional model errors the medium-field-of-view data give the best estimates. However, when bidirectional model errors are considered, the wide-field-of-view measurements give better estimates since they are less sensitive to these errors.

Green, R. N.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Correlation techniques to determine model form in robust nonlinear system realization/identification

The fundamental challenge in identification of nonlinear dynamic systems is determining the appropriate form of the model. A robust technique is presented which essentially eliminates this problem for many applications. The technique is based on the Minimum Model Error (MME) optimal estimation approach. A detailed literature review is included in which fundamental differences between the current approach and previous work is described. The most significant feature is the ability to identify nonlinear dynamic systems without prior assumption regarding the form of the nonlinearities, in contrast to existing nonlinear identification approaches which usually require detailed assumptions of the nonlinearities. Model form is determined via statistical correlation of the MME optimal state estimates with the MME optimal model error estimates. The example illustrations indicate that the method is robust with respect to prior ignorance of the model, and with respect to measurement noise, measurement frequency, and measurement record length.

Stry, Greselda I.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Assessment of Model Hub Height Wind Speed Performance Using DOE Lidar Buoy Data

As the offshore wind industry continues to gain momentum both in the U.S. and globally, reanalysis products remain essential tools for the lifecycle of a wind farm. From project siting and production estimates to determining construction and maintenance windows, reanalysis products play an important role. These regional and global long-term models also serve as inputs to higher resolution models. With such wide-ranging impacts on the offshore wind industry, the need for validation of reanalysis products is strong, particularly at typical turbine hub heights. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) operates two AXYS WindSentinelTM buoys for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) in order to collect meteorological and oceanographic data, including hub height wind speed, in areas of interest for offshore wind development. This work uses DOE buoy observations off the coasts of New Jersey and Virginia to evaluate the performance of Modern Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications-2 (MERRA-2), the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR), the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Reanalysis 5th generation (ERA5), and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) assimilation system Rapid Refresh (RAP). Biases and degrees of correspondence are determined for each reanalysis product in order to provide insights on the performance and uncertainty for long-term wind resource characterization. With the baseline metrics determined, this work proceeds with an investigation into the sources of large deviations between the modeled and observed hub height wind speeds during the East Coast lidar buoy deployments. Consistent sources of reanalysis model error include stably stratified flow conditions, high wind shear, flow parallel to the coastline, and tropical and winter storms. For the near shore New Jersey location, offshore winds (i.e. blowing from land to water) tend to be associated with model overestimation of observed hub height wind speed, while winds parallel to the coastline are correlated with model underestimation of wind speed. Similarly, near the Virginia buoy, during southerly winds (parallel to the coastline) models underestimate the observed wind speed due to coastal upwelling. Reanalysis model wind speeds underestimate the hub height winds with increasing stable atmospheric stratification. Reanalysis model biases are seen when the observed wind speeds approach or exceed typical turbine cut-out speeds (around 20 m s-1). Large model errors during winter and tropical storm events, high wind speed events, and ramp events are often the result of wind speed timing and magnitude offsets. Overall, ERA5 provides the most successful representation of observed offshore hub height wind speeds at the U.S. East Coast buoy locations and is therefore best suited as an input boundary condition for model case studies. ERA5 performs well for a variety of atmospheric phenomena, including storms and sea breezes, however RAP, the next most successful reanalysis model, performs best in capturing the frequency of ramp events.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Scalable Programming Workflows for Validation of Quantum Computers

Hybrid quantum-classical workflows have become standard methods for executing variational algorithms and other quantum simulation techniques, which are key applications for noisy intermediate scale quantum (NISQ) computers. Validating these simulations is an important task which helps gauge the progress of quantum computer development, and classical simulation can serve as a tool to this end. Both exact and more scalable approximate methods with quantifiable error bounds can be used in validation tasks where the applicable metrics include the distance from a calculable ground truth, the quality of an error model fit to data, etc. Here we present a library extension that includes methods for validation of quantum simulations based on scalable hybrid workflows executable on high performance computers. We provide examples that use approximate methods based on tensor networks and stabilizer simulators to bound the error of quantum simulations on NISQ hardware.

Nguyen, Thien↗
DOE OSTI2022

Error quantification of the Arrhenius blending rule for viscosity of hydrocarbon mixtures

Six hundred and seventy-five measurements of dynamic viscosity and density have been used to assess the prediction error of the Arrhenius blending rule for kinematic viscosity of hydrocarbon mixtures. Major trends within the data show that mixture complexity–binary to hundreds of components—and temperature are more important determinants of prediction error than differences in molecular size or hydrogen saturation between the components of the mixtures. Over the range evaluated, no correlation between prediction error and mole fractions was observed, suggesting the log of viscosity truly is linear in mole fraction, as indicated by the Arrhenius blending rule. Mixture complexity and temperature also impact molar volume and its prediction. However, a linear regression between the two model errors explains less than 20% of the observed variation, indicating that mixture viscosity and/or molar volume are not linear with respect to temperature and/or mixture complexity. Extensive discussion of the intermolecular forces and the geometric arrangement of molecules and vacancies in liquids, which ultimately determines its viscosity, is brought into context with the implicit approximations behind the Arrhenius blending rule. The complexity of this physics is not compatible with a simple algebraic correction to the model. However, sufficient data is now available to determine confidence intervals around the prediction of fuel viscosity based on its component mole fractions and viscosities. At -40°C, when all identified components are pure molecules the modeling error is 13.2% of the predicted (nominal) viscosity times the root mean square of the component mole fractions.

10 SYNTHETIC FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Analyzing rotational bands in odd-mass nuclei using effective field theory and Bayesian methods

We recently developed an Effective Field Theory (EFT) for rotational bands in odd-mass nuclei. Here we use EFT expressions to perform a Bayesian analysis of data on the rotational energy levels of 99 Tc, 155,157 Gd, 159 Dy, 167,169 Er, 167,169 Tm, 183 W, 235 U and 239 Pu. The error model in our Bayesian analysis includes both experimental and EFT truncation uncertainties. It also accounts for the fact that low-energy constants (LECs) at even and odd orders are expected to have different sizes. We use Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling to explore the joint posterior of the EFT and error-model parameters and show both the LECs and the breakdown scale can be reliably determined. We extract the LECs up to fourth order in the EFT and find that, provided we correctly account for EFT truncation errors in our likelihood, results for lower-order LECs are stable as we go to higher orders. LEC results are also stable with respect to the addition of higher-energy data. We extract the expansion parameter for all the nuclei listed above and find a clear correlation between the extracted and the expected value of the inverse breakdown scale, W, based on the single-particle and vibrational energy scales. However, the W that actually determines the convergence of the EFT expansion is markedly smaller than would be naively expected based on those scales.

EFT↗
DOE OSTI2025

Inverse model based error detection in beamline optics

Optics tuning in transfer lines and LINACs can be challenging due to the fact that multiple combinations of machine settings can lead to the same diagnostic output. Moreover, the lack of a periodic solution can limit the ability to infer optics in the same way as rings from BPM signals. Model based approaches are often used to assist with the optics tuning in combination with optimization or parameter estimation. Here we have developed a novel approach using machine learning inverse models trained on a known configuration to detect variations in quadrupole settings without explicitly including them in the model. This paper shows a comparison of neural network models and linear models on both a simulation based study and experimental studies conducted at the AGS to RHIC transfer line at Brookhaven National Lab.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗