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DOE OSTI2023

Bayesian Exploration of Phenomenological EoS of Neutron/Hybrid Stars with Recent Observations

The description of the stellar interior of compact stars remains as a big challenge for the nuclear astrophysics community. The consolidated knowledge is restricted to density regions around the saturation of hadronic matter ρ 0 =2.8 × 10 14 g cm -3 , regimes where our nuclear models are successfully applied. As one moves towards higher densities and extreme conditions up to the quark/gluons deconfinement, little can be said about the microphysics of the equation of state (EoS). Here, we employ a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) strategy to access the variability at high density regions of polytropic piecewise models for neutron star (NS) EoS or possible hybrid stars, i.e., a NS with a small quark-matter core. With a fixed description of the hadronic matter for low density, below the nuclear saturation density, we explore a variety of models for the high density regimes leading to stellar masses near to 2.5 M ⊙ , in accordance with the observations of massive pulsars. The models are constrained, including the observation of the merger of neutrons stars from VIRGO-LIGO and with the pulsar observed by NICER. In addition, we also discuss the possibility of the use of a Bayesian power regression model with heteroscedastic error. The set of EoS from the Laser Interferometer Gravitational-Wave Observatory (LIGO) was used as input and treated as the data set for the testing case.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Detecting and Characterizing Mg ii Absorption in DESI Survey Validation Quasar Spectra

Abstract We present findings of the detection of Magnesium II (Mg ii , λ = 2796, 2803 Å) absorbers from the early data release of the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI). DESI is projected to obtain spectroscopy of approximately 3 million quasars (QSOs), of which over 99% are anticipated to be at redshifts greater than z > 0.3, such that DESI would be able to observe an associated or intervening Mg ii absorber illuminated by the background QSO. We have developed an autonomous supplementary spectral pipeline that detects these systems through an initial line-fitting process and then confirms the line properties using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampler. Based upon a visual inspection of the resulting systems, we estimate that this sample has a purity greater than 99%. We have also investigated the completeness of our sample in regard to both the signal-to-noise properties of the input spectra and the rest-frame equivalent width ( W 0 ) of the absorber systems. From a parent catalog containing 83,207 quasars, we detect a total of 23,921 Mg ii absorption systems following a series of quality cuts. Extrapolating from this occurrence rate of 28.8% implies a catalog at the completion of the five-year DESI survey that will contain over eight hundred thousand Mg ii absorbers. The cataloging of these systems will enable significant further research because they carry information regarding circumgalactic medium environments, the distribution of intervening galaxies, and the growth of metallicity across the redshift range 0.3 ≤ z < 2.5.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Photometric Objects around Cosmic Webs (PAC) Delineated in a Spectroscopic Survey. I. Methods

We provide a method for estimating the projected density distribution ${\bar{n}}_{2}{w}_{p}({r}_{p})$ of photometric objects around spectroscopic objects in a spectroscopic survey. This quantity describes the distribution of photometric sources with certain physical properties (e.g., luminosity, mass, and color) around cosmic webs (PAC) traced by the spectroscopic objects. The method can make full use of current and future deep and wide photometric surveys to explore the formation of galaxies up to medium redshift (z s < 2) 3 with the aid of cosmological spectroscopic surveys that sample only a fairly limited species of objects (e.g., emission line galaxies). As an example, we apply the PAC method to the CMASS spectroscopic and HSC-SSP PDR2 photometric samples to explore the distribution of galaxies for a wide range of stellar masses from 10 9.0 to 10 12.0 M ⊙ around massive galaxies at z s ≈ 0.6. Using the abundance-matching method, we model ${\bar{n}}_{2}{w}_{p}({r}_{p})$ in N-body simulation using Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling, and we accurately measure the stellar–halo mass relation and stellar mass function for the whole mass range. We can also measure the conditional stellar mass function of satellites for central galaxies of different mass. The PAC method has many potential applications for studying the evolution of galaxies.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

A Hydro-based MCMC Analysis of SNR 0509–67.5: Revealing the Explosion Properties from Fluid Discontinuities Alone

Using Hubble Space Telescope/ACS Hα images of SNR 0509–67.5 taken ~10 yr apart, we measure the forward shock (FS) proper motions (PMs) at 231 rim locations. The average shock radius and velocity are 3.66 ± 0.036 pc and 6315 ± 310 km s –1 . Hydrodynamic simulations, recast as similarity solutions, provide models for the supernova remnant’s expansion into a uniform ambient medium. These are coupled to a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) analysis to determine explosion parameters, constrained by the FS measurements. For our baseline model, the MCMC posteriors yield an age of 315.5 ± 1.8 yr, a dynamical explosion center at 5 h 09 m 31. s 16, $-67^\circ 31^{\prime} 17\buildrel{\prime\prime}\over{.} 1$ and ambient medium densities at each azimuth ranging over 3.7–8.0 × 10 –25 g cm –3 . The age uncertainty can be an order of magnitude larger when considering other models, or subsets of the data. We detect stellar PMs corresponding to speeds in the Large Magellanic Cloud ≥ 770 km s –1 . Five stars in the remnant show measurable PMs but none are moving radially from the dynamical center. There are four stars 1."4 from the center, including three faint, previously unidentified ones. Using coronal [Fe XIV ] λ5303 emission as a proxy for the reverse shock location, we constrain the explosion energy (for a compression factor of 4) to a value of E = (1.30 ± 0.41) × 10 51 erg for the first time from shock kinematics alone. Higher compression factors (7 or more) are strongly disfavored based on multiple criteria, arguing for inefficient particle acceleration in the Balmer shocks of SNR 0509–67.5.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Probing Physics beyond the Standard Model through Combined Analyses of Next-generation Type Ia Supernova, Cosmic Microwave Background, and Baryon Acoustic Oscillation Surveys

Observations of Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia), which probe the late Universe, together with baryon acoustic oscillations (BAO) and the cosmic microwave background (CMB), which probe the intermediate and early epochs, provide complementary constraints on the expansion history of the Universe. In this work, we forecast constraints on dark energy and other extensions to the standard cosmological model by combining the SN Ia sample expected from the Vera C. Rubin Observatory’s Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST), data from current and forthcoming CMB surveys, and BAO measurements from the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI). For the CMB, we use temperature, polarization, and lensing power spectra (TT/EE/TE/ϕϕ) from the South Pole Telescope, the planned Advanced Simons Observatory, and a CMB-S4–like experiment. We derive constraints on ΛCDM and its extensions involving the dark energy equation-of-state parameters (w 0 , w a ) and the sum of neutrino masses ∑m ν using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling framework. We find that the LSST Year 3 SN Ia sample can improve upon the DES Year 5 dark energy constraints by a factor of 2−2.5×, with the gains driven primarily by the significantly higher SN Ia density in the LSST sample. Similarly, DESI-DR3 shows up to a 1.8× improvement on dark energy parameters over DR2, driven largely by the substantial increase in the low-redshift sample. Combining CMB with LSST-Y3-SN Ia and DESI-DR3-BAO yields σ(w 0 ) = 0.028 and σ(w a ) = 0.11 for w 0 w a CDM cosmology with the results being largely independent of the CMB dataset. The constraints weaken by 10%–30% when freeing ∑m ν and spatial curvature. Moreover, the joint analysis of the three datasets can enable a 2σ–3σ detection of ∑m ν .

Raghunathan, Srinivasan [University of California;↗
DOE OSTI2022

A Reanalysis of Public Galactic Bulge Gravitational Microlensing Events from OGLE-III and -IV

Abstract Modern surveys of gravitational microlensing events have progressed to detecting thousands per year, and surveys are capable of probing Galactic structure, stellar evolution, lens populations, black hole physics, and the nature of dark matter. One of the key avenues for doing this is the microlensing Einstein radius crossing time (t E) distribution. However, systematics in individual light curves as well as oversimplistic modeling can lead to biased results. To address this, we developed a model to simultaneously handle the microlensing parallax due to Earth's motion, systematic instrumental effects, and unlensed stellar variability with a Gaussian process model. We used light curves for nearly 10,000 OGLE-III and -IV Milky Way bulge microlensing events and fit each with our model. We also developed a forward model approach to infer the t E distribution by forward modeling from the data rather than using point estimates from individual events. We find that modeling the variability in the baseline removes a source of significant bias in individual events, and the previous analyses overestimated the number of t E > 100 day events due to their oversimplistic model ignoring parallax effects. We use our fits to identify the hundreds filling a regime in the microlensing parameter space that are 50% pure of black holes. Finally, we have released the largest-ever catalog of Markov Chain Monte Carlo parameter estimates for microlensing events.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

CLASS Survey Description: Coronal-line Needles in the SDSS Haystack

Coronal lines are a powerful, yet poorly understood, tool to identify and characterize active galactic nuclei. There have been few large-scale surveys of coronal lines in the general galaxy population in the literature so far. Using a novel preselection technique with a flux-to-rms ratio $\mathcal{F}$, followed by Markov Chain Monte Carlo fitting, we searched for the full suite of 20 coronal lines in the optical spectra of almost 1 million galaxies from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey Data Release 8. We present a catalog of the emission-line parameters for the resulting 258 galaxies with detections. The Coronal Line Activity Spectroscopic Survey includes line properties, host-galaxy properties, and selection criteria for all galaxies in which at least one line is detected. This comprehensive study reveals that a significant fraction of coronal-line activity is missed in past surveys based on a more limited set of coronal lines; ~60% of our sample do not display the more widely surveyed [Fe x] λ6374. In addition, we discover a strong correlation between coronal-line and Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer W2 luminosities, suggesting that the mid-infrared flux can be used to predict coronal-line fluxes. For each line we also provide a confidence level that the line is present, generated by a novel neural network, trained on fully simulated data. We find that after training the network to detect individual lines using 100,000 simulated spectra, we achieve an overall true-positive rate of 75.49% and a false-positive rate of only 3.96%.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Photometry of Outer Solar System Objects from the Dark Energy Survey. I. Photometric Methods, Light-curve Distributions, and Trans-Neptunian Binaries

We report the methods of and initial scientific inferences from the extraction of precision photometric information for the >800 trans-Neptunian objects (TNOs) discovered in the images of the Dark Energy Survey (DES). Scene-modeling photometry is used to obtain shot-noise-limited flux measures for each exposure of each TNO, with background sources subtracted. Comparison of double-source fits to the pixel data with single-source fits are used to identify and characterize two binary TNO systems. A Markov Chain Monte Carlo method samples the joint likelihood of the intrinsic colors of each source as well as the amplitude of its flux variation, given the time series of multiband flux measurements and their uncertainties. A catalog of these colors and light-curve amplitudes A is included with this publication. We show how to assign a likelihood to the distribution q(A) of light-curve amplitudes in any subpopulation. Using this method, we find decisive evidence (i.e., evidence ratio <0.01) that cold classical (CC) TNOs with absolute magnitude 6 < H$_{r}$ < 8.2 are more variable than the hot classical (HC) population of the same H$_{r}$, reinforcing theories that the former form in situ and the latter arise from a different physical population. Resonant and scattering TNOs in this H$_{r}$ range have variability consistent with either the HCs or CCs. DES TNOs with H$_{r}$ < 6 are seen to be decisively less variable than higher-H$_{r}$ members of any dynamical group, as expected. More surprising is that detached TNOs are decisively less variable than scattering TNOs, which requires them to have distinct source regions or some subsequent differential processing.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2022

Probabilistic estimation of depth-resolved profiles of soil thermal diffusivity from temperature time series

Abstract. Improving the quantification of soil thermal and physical properties is key to achieving a better understanding and prediction of soil hydro-biogeochemical processes and their responses to changes in atmospheric forcing. Obtaining such information at numerous locations and/or over time with conventional soil sampling is challenging. The increasing availability of low-cost, vertically resolved temperature sensor arrays offers promise for improving the estimation of soil thermal properties from temperature time series, and the possible indirect estimation of physical properties. Still, the reliability and limitations of such an approach need to be assessed. In the present study, we develop a parameter estimation approach based on a combination of thermal modeling, sliding time windows, Bayesian inference, and Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation to estimate thermal diffusivity and its uncertainty over time, at numerous locations and at an unprecedented vertical spatial resolution (i.e., down to 5 to 10 cm vertical resolution) from soil temperature time series. We provide the necessary framework to assess under which environmental conditions (soil temperature gradient, fluctuations, and trend), temperature sensor characteristics (bias and level of noise), and deployment geometries (sensor number and position) soil thermal diffusivity can be reliably inferred. We validate the method with synthetic experiments and field studies. The synthetic experiments show that in the presence of median diurnal fluctuations ≥ 1.5 ∘C at 5 cm below the ground surface, temperature gradients > 2 ∘C m−1, and a sliding time window of at least 4 d the proposed method provides reliable depth-resolved thermal diffusivity estimates with percentage errors ≤ 10 % and posterior relative standard deviations ≤ 5 % up to 1 m depth. Reliable thermal diffusivity under such environmental conditions also requires temperature sensors to be spaced precisely (with accuracy to a few millimeters), with a level of noise ≤ 0.02 ∘C, and with a bias defined by a standard deviation ≤ 0.01 ∘C. Finally, the application of the developed approach to field data indicates significant repeatability in results and similarity with independent measurements, as well as promise in using a sliding time window to estimate temporal changes in soil thermal diffusivity, as needed to potentially capture changes in bulk density or water content.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

EGS Stimulation Design with Uncertainty Quantification at the EGS Collab Site

Engineering a robust hydraulic connection between wells is one of the most difficult aspects of enhanced geothermal systems (EGS). Designing and constructing such hydraulic connections requires and understanding of the in situ state of stress and the heterogeneities and discontinuities that naturally exist and may control the stimulation. Even with comprehensive stress and formation characterization programs substantial uncertainty remains in these key parameters. This is especially the case in high-temperature EGS environments where drilling conditions are often difficult and a far fewer logging and testing options are available. This paper presents a new approach for explicitly quantifying the uncertainties in the state of stress using a Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo method. This approach produces a probability distribution for the stress tensor, including a general 3D orientation, that reflects the uncertainties in all the observations or indicators used to constrain the stress state. This method is demonstrated on the characterization data for the EGS Collab Experiment 2 site. The output of the analysis is used to guide the design of the planned stimulations. In the case of research projects like EGS Collab, explicitly quantifying the uncertainties in the stress state allow for more rigorous hypothesis testing by allowing conclusions drawn from the experiments to be interpreted in the context of the uncertain knowledge about conditions in the test bed.

Burghardt, Jeffrey A.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Constraining Physical Models at Gigabar Pressures

High-energy-density (HED) experiments in convergent geometry are able to test physical models at pressures beyond hundreds of millions of atmospheres. The measurements from these experiments are generally highly integrated and require unique analysis techniques to procure quantitative information. This work describes a methodology to constrain the physics in convergent HED experiments by adapting the methods common to many other fields of physics. As an example, a mechanical model of an imploding shell is constrained by data from a thin-shelled direct-drive exploding-pusher experiment on the OMEGA Laser System using Bayesian inference, resulting in the reconstruction of the shell dynamics and energy transfer during the implosion. The model is tested by analyzing synthetic data from a 1-D hydrodynamics code and is sampled using a Markov chain Monte Carlo to generate the posterior distributions of the model parameters. The goal of this work is to demonstrate a general methodology that can be used to draw conclusions from a wide variety of HED experiments.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
NASA NTRS2002

High Resolution Soil Water from Regional Databases and Satellite Images

This viewgraph presentation provides information on the ways in which plant growth can be inferred from satellite data and can then be used to infer soil water. There are several steps in this process, the first of which is the acquisition of data from satellite observations and relevant information databases such as the State Soil Geographic Database (STATSGO). Then probabilistic analysis and inversion with the Bayes' theorem reveals sources of uncertainty. The Markov chain Monte Carlo method is also used.

Morris, Robin D.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Package for Interactive Analysis of Line Emission (Analysis of UV-X-Ray High-Resolution Emission Spectra)

PINTofALE is an IDL based package to analyze high-resolution grating spectra. The first version was made available to the public on 3 February 2001. Since then we have carried out numerous changes, and the current release is version 1.5, released on 9 October 2002. The changes include upgrades to handle higher versions of IDL, the new version of the CHIANTI database (v4), major enhancements in user-friendliness, improved handling of response matrices, the ability to handle 24-bit color, access to the Atomic Plasma Emission Database (APED), and beta releases of Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) based DEM fitting routines. Plans for the future include: inclusion of MCMC techniques in the fitting programs, enhanced graphics capabilities, an overhaul of the line and continuum database structure, and bug fixes. In September 2002, we hired a data analyst (LiWei Lin) to work on PINTofALE. Mr.Lin is concentrating on incorporating MCMC as well as simpler Monte-Carlo techniques, fast RMF convolution, etc., into the code base, as well as reviewing the existing documentation and searching for bugs. A detailed description of the package, together with fairly detailed documentation, example walks-throughs, and downloadable tar files, are available on-line from http://hea-www. harvard.edu/PINTofALE/

Kashyap, Vinay↗
NASA NTRS2004

Determination of Cluster Distances from Chandra Imaging Spectroscopy and Sunyaev-Zeldovich Effect Measurements: Analysis Methods and Initial Results - I

X-ray and Sunyaev-Zeldovich Effect data ca,n be combined to determine the distance to galaxy clusters. High-resolution X-ray data are now available from the Chandra Observatory, which provides both spatial and spectral information, and interferometric radio measurements of the Sunyam-Zeldovich Effect are available from the BIMA and 0VR.O arrays. We introduce a Monte Carlo Markov chain procedure for the joint analysis of X-ray and Sunyaev-Zeldovich Effect data. The advantages of this method are the high computational efficiency and the ability to measure the full probability distribution of all parameters of interest, such as the spatial and spectral properties of the cluster gas and the cluster distance. We apply this technique to the Chandra X-ray data and the OVRO radio data for the galaxy cluster Abell 611. Comparisons with traditional likelihood-ratio methods reveal the robustness of the method. This method will be used in a follow-up paper to determine the distance of a large sample of galaxy clusters for which high-resolution Chandra X-ray and BIMA/OVRO radio data are available.

Bonamente, Massimiliano↗
NASA NTRS2005

Package for Interactive Analysis of Line Emission

PINTofALE is an IDL based package to analyze high-resolution grating spectra. The first version was made available to the public on 3 February 2001. Since then we have carried out numerous changes and subsidiary releases. The current release is version 2.0 (released 6 Apr 2004), and we are preparing to release v2.1 within the next month. The changes include bug fixes, upgrades to handle higher versions of IDL and the CHIANTI database, enhancements in user-friendliness, handling of instrument response matrices, and the release of a Markov Chain Monte Carlo based DEM fitting routines. A detailed description of the package, together with fairly detailed documentation, example walk-throughs, and downloadable tar files, are available on-line from http://hea.harvard.edu/PINTofALE/ The website also lists papers that have used PINTofALE in their analysis.

Kashyap, Vinay↗
NASA NTRS2005

Cosmological Constraints from Sunyaev-Zeldovich Effect and X-ray data for 37 Galaxy Clusters

We present a sample of 37 clusters of galaxies (0.14<=z<=0.89) for which we have Sunyaev-Zeldovich Effect data and Chandra X-ray imaging and spectroscopy. We use a Markov chain Monte Carlo technique to determine the spatial properties and surface brightness of the X-ray emitting gas, the X-ray temperature and abundance, and the SZE decrement for each cluster. From these observables, we infer each cluster's total mass, gas mass fraction, and angular diameter distance. The sample properties are used to constrain the Hubble parameter and Omega Matter, and scaling relations between integrated SZE flux and cluster mass and temperature are constructed. We also investigate the cosmological constraints that could be obtained if the X-ray/SZE sample were extended to a redshift of z approximately 2.

Bonamente, Massimiliano↗
NASA NTRS2006

Determination of the Cosmic Distance Scale from Sunyaev-Zel'dovich Effect and Chandra X-ray Measurements of High Redshift Galaxy Clusters

We determine the distance to 38 clusters of galaxies in the redshift range 0.14 less than or equal to z less than or equal to 0.89 using X-ray data from Chandra and Sunyaev-Zeldovich Effect data from the Owens Valley Radio Observatory and the Berkeley-Illinois-Maryland Association interferometric arrays. The cluster plasma and dark matter distributions are analyzed using a hydrostatic equilibrium model that accounts for radial variations in density, temperature and abundance, and, the statistical and systematic errors of this method are quantified. The analysis is performed via a Markov chain Monte Carlo technique that provides simultaneous estimation of all model parameters. W

Bonamente, Massimiliano↗
NASA NTRS2008

Five-Year Wilkinson Microwave Anisotropy Probe (WMAP1) Observations: Galactic Foreground Emission

We present a new estimate of foreground emission in the WMAP data, using a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method. The new technique delivers maps of each foreground component for a variety of foreground models, error estimates of the uncertainty of each foreground component, and provides an overall goodness-of-fit measurement. The resulting foreground maps are in broad agreement with those from previous techniques used both within the collaboration and by other authors. We find that for WMAP data, a simple model with power-law synchrotron, free-free, and thermal dust components fits 90% of the sky with a reduced X(sup 2) (sub v) of 1.14. However, the model does not work well inside the Galactic plane. The addition of either synchrotron steepening or a modified spinning dust model improves the fit. This component may account for up to 14% of the total flux at Ka-band (33 GHz). We find no evidence for foreground contamination of the CMB temperature map in the 85% of the sky used for cosmological analysis.

Gold, B.↗