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At least 253 records · Page 14

A Model Tree Generator (MTG) Framework for Simulating Hydrologic Systems: Application to Reservoir Routing

Data-driven algorithms have been widely used as effective tools to mimic hydrologic systems. Unlike black-box models, decision tree algorithms offer transparent representations of systems and reveal useful information about the underlying process. A popular class of decision tree models is model tree (MT), which is designed for predicting continuous variables. Most MT algorithms employ an exhaustive search mechanism and a pre-defined splitting criterion to generate a piecewise linear model. However, this approach is computationally intensive, and the selection of the splitting criterion can significantly affect the performance of the generated model. These drawbacks can limit the application of MTs to large datasets. To overcome these shortcomings, a new flexible Model Tree Generator (MTG) framework is introduced here. MTG is equipped with several modules to provide a flexible, efficient, and effective tool for generating MTs. The application of the algorithm is demonstrated through simulation of controlled discharge from several reservoirs across the Contiguous United States (CONUS).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The MURAVES Experiment: A Study of the Vesuvius Great Cone with Muon Radiography

The MURAVES experiment aims at the muographic imaging of the internal structure of the summit of Mt. Vesuvius, exploiting muons produced by cosmic rays. Though presently quiescent, the volcano carries a dramatic hazard in its highly populated surroundings. The challenging measurement of the rock density distribution in its summit by muography, in conjunction with data from other geophysical techniques, can help the modeling of possible eruptive dynamics. The MURAVES apparatus consists of an array of three independent and identical muon trackers, with a total sensitive area of 3 square meters. In each tracker, a sequence of 4 XY tracking planes made of plastic scintillators is complemented by a 60 cm thick lead wall inserted between the two downstream planes to improve rejection of background from low-energy muons. The apparatus is currently acquiring data. Preliminary results from the analysis of the first data sample are presented.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Quantitative characterization of the Antarctic ozone hole

The long-term evolution of the Antarctic ozone hole is studied based on the TOMS data and the JMA data-set of stratospheric temperature in relation with the possible role of polar stratospheric clouds (PSC's). The effective mass of depleted ozone in the ozone hole at its annual mature stage reached a historical maximum of 55 Mt in 1991, 4.3 times larger than in 1981. The ozone depletion rate during 30 days before the mature ozone hole does not show any appreciable long-term trend but the interannual fluctuations do, ranging from 0.169 to 0.689 Mt/day with the average of 0.419 Mt/day for the period of 1979 - 1991. The depleted ozone mass has the highest correlation with the region below 195 K on the 30 mb surface in June, whereas the ozone depletion rate correlates most strongly with that in August. The present result strongly suggests that the long-term evolution of the mature ozone hole is caused both by the interannual change of the latitudinal coverage of the early PSC's, which may control the latitude and date of initiation of ozone decrease, and by that of the spatial coverage of the mature PSC's which may control the ozone depletion rate in the Antarctic spring.

Ito, T.↗

Influence of the Mt. Pinatubo Eruption on the Stratospheric Circulation

On June 15th, 1991 the eruption of Mt. Pinatubo in the Philippines injected about 20 Tg of sulfur dioxide in the stratosphere, which was transformed into sulfuric acid aerosol. Even though stratospheric winds climatologically tend to hinder the air mixing between the two hemispheres, observations have shown that a large part of the SO2 emitted by Mt. Pinatubo have been transported from the Northern to the Southern Hemisphere. We show how the absorption of radiation by sulfate aerosol is responsible for the spreading to the southern hemisphere through a middle stratospheric channel. We simulate the eruption of Mt. Pinatubo with the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) version 5 general circulation model, coupled to the aerosol module GOCART and the stratospheric chemistry module StratChem. Our simulations are in good agreement with SAGE-II and AVHRR data. We perform two ensembles of simulations: the first ensemble consists of runs without coupling between aerosol and radiation. In these simulations the plume of aerosols is treated as a passive tracer and the atmosphere is unperturbed. In the second ensemble of simulations aerosols and radiation are coupled. We show that the set of runs with interactive aerosol produces a larger cross-equatorial transport of the Pinatubo cloud, in agreement with the observations. At first, the volcanic cloud is transported from the latitude of the eruption to both hemispheres through a lower stratospheric pathway. Additionally, in the interactive simulations the absorption of long wave radiation from the volcanic sulfate induces a lofting of the cloud to the middle atmosphere and, at the same time, a divergent motion from the center of the cloud. Such motion spreads the volcanic cloud across the equator and to the tropics, where the background circulation carry it to higher latitudes.

Aquila, V.↗

Identifying geological structures through microseismic cluster and burst analyses complementing active seismic interpretation

At the Decatur carbon capture and storage site (IL, USA) CO 2 has been injected from 2011–2014 and from 2017 to present near the base of the Lower Mt. Simon Sandstone saline reservoir, resulting in microseismicity. Microseismicity is mainly located in the basement and distributed in distinct spatial clusters. The lack of significant impedance contrasts within the basement makes the interpretation of active-source seismic reflection data challenging, however, recent reprocessing allowed to resolve faults above and at the top of the basement. These faults generally do not coincide with the location of microseismic events and their continuation to the general depth of the seismic events cannot be assumed. This paper shows how the interpretation of the microseismicity can complement structural interpretations of active-source seismic reflection data. In particular, we analyze clusters and bursts (abrupt increases) of microseismicity, identify unresolved, smaller-scale weaknesses and extract statistical parameters. These parameters allow comparisons with the interpreted faults, and with fracture sets intercepted by boreholes. During injection at the Decatur site, the injection pressure was kept far below fracture pressure, nevertheless, seismic events were induced and spread far beyond the expected extent of the CO 2 plume. We argue that local stress transfers related to the CO 2 injection reactivated pre-existing fractures within the critically stressed basement. Finally, we conducted a slip tendency analysis for faults interpreted from active seismic, selected cluster, bursts and nodal planes from focal mechanisms to determine if the interpreted structures are optimally oriented with respect to the stress regime. Our results suggest that the orientation of fractures close to the injection well, generally shows slight deviations from the optimal orientation for slip. This might indicate either slight local deviations of the maximum horizontal stress azimuth from the average direction used in the analysis, or the lack of optimally oriented fractures at this location.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Motion coherence affects human perception and pursuit similarly

Pursuit and perception both require accurate information about the motion of objects. Recovering the motion of objects by integrating the motion of their components is a difficult visual task. Successful integration produces coherent global object motion, while a failure to integrate leaves the incoherent local motions of the components unlinked. We compared the ability of perception and pursuit to perform motion integration by measuring direction judgments and the concomitant eye-movement responses to line-figure parallelograms moving behind stationary rectangular apertures. The apertures were constructed such that only the line segments corresponding to the parallelogram's sides were visible; thus, recovering global motion required the integration of the local segment motion. We investigated several potential motion-integration rules by using stimuli with different object, vector-average, and line-segment terminator-motion directions. We used an oculometric decision rule to directly compare direction discrimination for pursuit and perception. For visible apertures, the percept was a coherent object, and both the pursuit and perceptual performance were close to the object-motion prediction. For invisible apertures, the percept was incoherently moving segments, and both the pursuit and perceptual performance were close to the terminator-motion prediction. Furthermore, both psychometric and oculometric direction thresholds were much higher for invisible apertures than for visible apertures. We constructed a model in which both perception and pursuit are driven by a shared motion-processing stage, with perception having an additional input from an independent static-processing stage. Model simulations were consistent with our perceptual and oculomotor data. Based on these results, we propose the use of pursuit as an objective and continuous measure of perceptual coherence. Our results support the view that pursuit and perception share a common motion-integration stage, perhaps within areas MT or MST.

NASA Center ARC↗

An Operational Assessment of the MODIS False Color Composite with the Great Falls, Montana National Weather Service

The close and productive collaborations between the NWS Warning and Forecast Office (WFO) in Great Falls, MT and the Short Term Prediction and Research Transition (SPORT) Center at NASA/Marshall Space Flight Center have provided a unique opportunity for science sharing and technology transfer. In particular, SPoRT has provided a false color composite product derived from MODIS data, which is part of NASA's Earth Observing System. This product is designed to delineate snow and ice covered ground, bare ground and clouds. The Great Falls WFO has been a test bed of the MODIS false color composite as a tool in operations to monitor the development and dissipation of snow cover In particular, preliminary applications have shown that the product can be used to monitor snow cover in remote locations as well as ice in rivers. This information can lead to improved assessments of flooding potential during post event conditions where rapid melting and runoff are anticipated. The potential of this product on future geostationary satellites may substantially contribute to the NWS mission by providing enhanced situational awareness. The operational use of this product has been transitioned at WFO Great Falls through a process of product implementation, discussions with the service hydrologist and forecasters, and post event analysis. A concentrated assessment period from January to March, 2008 was initiated to investigate the impact of the MODIS false color product on WFO Great Falls' operations. This presentation will emphasize the impact the MODIS false color product had in the WFO's situational awareness and how best this information can be used to influence operational decisions.

Loss, GIna↗

Possible effects on the stratosphere of the 1963 Mt. Agung volcanic eruption.

Previous studies of atmospheric pollution resulting from the 1963 eruption of Mt. Agung have shown that the volcanic dust caused temperature increases in the lower stratosphere over Australia. The present study provides time series of monthly-mean lower stratospheric temperatures for eight tropical stations on both sides of the equator. The data have been smoothed by taking 12-month running means. The results suggest that any effect of the eruption may be impossible to isolate. Some features of the quasi-biennial oscillation in zonal winds and temperatures are pointed out which must be considered in any attempt to explain the peculiarities in the curves of monthly mean temperatures.

Mcinturff, R. M.↗

Space Station Freedom automation and robotics: An assessment of the potential for increased productivity

This report presents the results of a study performed in support of the Space Station Freedom Advanced Development Program, under the sponsorship of the Space Station Engineering (Code MT), Office of Space Flight. The study consisted of the collection, compilation, and analysis of lessons learned, crew time requirements, and other factors influencing the application of advanced automation and robotics, with emphasis on potential improvements in productivity. The lessons learned data collected were based primarily on Skylab, Spacelab, and other Space Shuttle experiences, consisting principally of interviews with current and former crew members and other NASA personnel with relevant experience. The objectives of this report are to present a summary of this data and its analysis, and to present conclusions regarding promising areas for the application of advanced automation and robotics technology to the Space Station Freedom and the potential benefits in terms of increased productivity. In this study, primary emphasis was placed on advanced automation technology because of its fairly extensive utilization within private industry including the aerospace sector. In contrast, other than the Remote Manipulator System (RMS), there has been relatively limited experience with advanced robotics technology applicable to the Space Station. This report should be used as a guide and is not intended to be used as a substitute for official Astronaut Office crew positions on specific issues.

Weeks, David J.↗

Balloon-borne measurements of ClO, NO, and O3 in a volcanic cloud: An analysis of heterogeneous chemistry between 20 and 30 km

Balloon profiles of chlorine monoxide (ClO), nitric oxide (NO), and ozone (O3) were measured on March 11, 1992 from 100 to 10 mb over Greenland (67.0 deg N, 50.6 deg W). Measurements from SAGE II indicate that the aerosol surface area in the region was enhanced by sulfur from the eruption of Mt. Pinatubo, reaching 50 times background near 20 km. Concentrations of ClO were enhanced and concentrations of NO were suppressed relative to low aerosol conditions consistent with the effects of hydrolysis of N2O5 on the surface of sulfuric acid aerosols. The data are consistent with a value of 2 x 10(exp -4) for the reaction probability of the heterogeneous hydrolysis of ClONO2, indicating a minor role for this reaction at as temperature of 220 K. At these temperatures, we find no evidence for the catastrophic loss of ozone predicted to occur under conditions of enhanced aerosol surface area.

Dessler, A. E.↗

Balloon-Borne Measurements of CLO, NO and O3 in a Volcanic Cloud: An Analysis of Heterogeneous Chemistry between 20 and 30 KM

Balloon profiles of chlorine monoxide (ClO), nitric oxide (NO), and ozone (O3) were measured on March 11, 1992 from 100 to 10 mb over Greenland (67.0 deg N, 50.6 deg W). Measurements from SAGE II indicate that the aerosol surface area in the region was enhanced by sulfur from the eruption of Mt. Pinatubo, reaching 50 times background near 20 km. Concentrations of ClO were enhanced and concentrations of NO were suppressed relative to low aerosol conditions consistent with the effects of hydrolysis of N2O5 on the surface of sulfuric acid aerosols. The data are consistent with a value of 2 x 10(exp -4) for the reaction probability of the heterogeneous hydrolysis of ClONO2, indicating a minor role for this reaction at a temperature of 220 K. At these temperatures, we find no evidence for the catastrophic loss of ozone predicted to occur under conditions of enhanced aerosol surface area.

Dessler, A. E.↗

Synthesizing land use and demographic change in Southeast Asia’s smaller urbanized areas from 2000–2015

The majority of the human population now reside in urban areas today. The United Nations estimates that nearly half of all urban dwellers currently live in cities smaller than 500 000 persons and the majority of future urban growth will take place in Asia and Africa, likely in these smaller urban areas, not mega cities. Thus, understanding the factors that influence urban demographic trajectories in small urban areas is critical to address sustainable and equitable policy initiatives related to food security, changing climate hazard exposure, and economic opportunities. Here we focus on Southeast Asia—a region historically characterized by lower urban population proportions, yet with a rapidly shifting dynamic demographic—to examine correlates of demographic change among smaller cities. We combine two open-source satellite-informed datasets: GHS urban center database (2015) and age-sex gridded data from WorldPop to calculate socio-demographic characteristics to model drivers of change in annualized urban population growth from 2000–2015 for 505 urbanized places. We find a general pattern of decreasing dependency ratios as city-size increases for most urban areas in Southeast Asia. Higher rates of growth and more variation is observed for smaller cities—those with fewer than 300 000 persons, the lowest population limit for UN data on urbanization. When examining covariates of urban population growth, we find significant statistical associations of population change in smaller urbanized areas with climatic, economic, and land cover/land use variables, but with country-specific variations. Characterizing a continuum of urban population development in the context of changing environmental, economic and climate conditions has been an important sustainable development and equity issue for decades, but newer analysis of city-level drivers allows for systematic inquiry thus moving beyond total population counts for policy-relevant insight.

Southeast Asia synthesis↗

Quantification and evaluation of plastic waste in the United States

To develop viable solutions for reducing plastic waste, spatially explicit data on the management of these materials are critical. Here we employ statistical and geospatial methods to present a comprehensive assessment of plastic waste in the United States by resin type at the state, county, and local levels. Of the estimated 44 Mt of plastic waste managed in 2019 domestically, approximately 86% was landfilled, 9% was combusted, and 5% was recycled. Landfilled plastics represented significant losses to the country's economy in 2019: an average of US$7.2 billion in market value, about 3.4 EJ as embodied energy (equivalent to 12% of energy consumption by the industrial sector), and 1.5 EJ as an energy source (equivalent to 5.5% and 5% of energy consumption by the industrial and transportation sectors, respectively). Lastly, we posit that substantial amount of landfilled plastic waste could be recovered through advanced sorting, existing, and emerging recycling processes.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Visible light nitrogen dioxide spectrophotometer intercomparison: Mount Kobau, British Columbia, July 28 to August 10, 1991

Under the auspices of the World Meteorological Organization, Environment Canada hosted an international comparison of visible light spectrophotometers at Mt. Kobau, British Columbia in August of 1991. Instruments from four countries were involved. The intercomparison results have indicated that some significant differences exist in the responses of the various instruments, and have provided a basis for the comparison of the historical data sets which currently exist as a result of the independent researches carried out in the past in the former Soviet Union, New Zealand, and Canada.

Mcelroy, C. T.↗

On-Orbit Engineering and Vehicle Integration Poster Presentation

One of the duties of the MER Managers is getting the consoles to review and sign Electronic Flight Notes (EFN) and Mission Action Requests (Chit) before they are due. Chits and EFNs and are accessible through the Mission Control Center - Houston (MCC-H) Gateway. Chits are the official means of documenting questions and answers, technical direction, real-time changes to Flight Rules (FR) and procedures, request for analysis, etc. between various consoles concerning on-orbit operations. EFNs are documents used by the Flight Control Team (FCT) to communicate precise details between console positions and manage real time changes to FR and Systems Operation Data File (SODF) procedures. On GMT 2013/345 the External Active Thermal Control System (EATCS) on the Columbus (COL) Moderate Temperature Loop (MTL) Interface Heat Exchanger (IFHX) shut down due to low temperatures. Over the next couple of days, the core temperature of COL MT IFHX dropped due to the failure of the Flow Control Valve (FCV). After the temperature drop was discovered, heaters were turned on to bring the temperatures back to nominal. After the incident occurred, a possible freeze threat was discovered that could have ruptured the heat exchanger. The COL MT IFHX rupturing would be considered a catastrophic failure and potentially result in a loss of the vehicle and/or the lives of the International Space Station (ISS) crew members

Heimerdinger, Madison↗

Unfolding Cross Sections: A Brief Introduction

Unfolding Cross Sections has been around forever, so there is nothing new in this report. I only authored this report because I fear that the current generation of ENDF data creators and users may not be familiar with this concept. This will be a brief introduction to unfolding, so I will only present one example, namely, ENDF/B-VIII U235. Let me stress that in selecting this example it was only because of the obvious importance of U235. In this selection I am not making any judgement as to the quality of this evaluation. Indeed, as I will keep reminding readers throughout this report, in my opinion the evaluators did an excellent job, and this evaluation meets the needs of many users. But it does violate ENDF-102 [1] that states MT=5 can be used for complex reactions at high energy. This evaluation uses MT=5 all the way down to the traditional ENDF lower energy limit at 1.0e-5 eV. There are no complex reactions at 1.0e-5 eV and this is certainly not high energy. To illustrate unfolding I will start from what I call their current U235 BEST physics evaluation and present what I call my BEST engineering evaluation, that better meets my needs – and more importantly the needs of the codes I use to process and use ENDF data. You, the reader, are free to select either – or neither – for your personal use. ENDF has been such a GREAT success because of the close bond between data producers and data users, who have supplied user feedback to improve the next generation of ENDF data. Here I am merely one of those users, and this is my feedback.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Cold Testing for Characterization of Oxide Feed Impurities in Support of the ARIES Program

The Advanced Recovery and Integrated Extraction System (ARIES) Program converts surplus plutonium metal components into an oxide powder form and packages the material for final disposition. In support of the ARIES program, over a metric ton (MT) of plutonium has been removed from surplus nuclear weapons since 1998 and packaged for long-term storage in 3013 cans. The oxide production rate is anticipated to increase substantially over the next decade in support of dilute and dispose goals. Analytical chemistry data from destructive analysis of the resulting 70+ blend lots to date has been reported for contaminants in the product oxide. Changes in the Pu product specification for Pu oxide product, induced by a different pit mix, the LANL swap program and processing Alternate (non-Pit Pu) Feed Stock (AFS) metals, will affect the level and the mix of these contaminants in the upcoming years. With these changes in feed material, it will be important to provide fast and efficient measurement of elemental impurities in the oxide to be certain that the process is under control and to monitor the anticipated changes from the historical blend lot data. Non-destructive methods need to be evaluated for the characterization of the plutonium oxide product and the quantification of the impurities at the current and anticipated levels. A feasibility study has begun to investigate the applicability of new spectroscopic methods for oxide impurity characterization. To this end, here we describe the preparation of surrogate materials to support these investigations, and the results of a feasibility study investigating the use of LIBS (Laser Induced Breakdown Spectroscopy) to characterize the surrogate materials as calibration standards.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Gaseous Ammonia Measurements at the S2 site for the CoURAGE campaign

This dataset contains measurements of gaseous ammonia (NH3(g)) at the S2 (Mt. Airy) site during the CoURAGE study from April to June 2025. This dataset includes 10-minute and 30-minute average NH3(g) concentrations in units of micrograms per cubic meter. Measurements are conducted with an AiRRmonia NH3 analyzer manufactured by RR Mechatronics. A data flag of -999 indicates missing data due to the instrument being offline (maintenance, calibration, etc.) while a data flag of -888 indicates measurements below the instrument LOD (LOD = 0.1 micrograms per cubic meter). The uncertainty of the measurements is 15%.

AiRRmonia NH3 analyzer↗