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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2022

The Earth Model Column Collaboratory (EMC2) v1.1: An Open-Source Ground-Based Lidar and Radar Instrument Simulator and Subcolumn Generator for Large-Scale Models

Climate models are essential for our comprehensive understanding of Earth's atmosphere and can provide critical insights on future changes decades ahead. Because of these critical roles, today's climate models are continuously being developed and evaluated using constraining observations and measurements obtained by satellites, airborne, and ground-based instruments. Instrument simulators can provide a bridge between the measured or retrieved quantities and their sampling in models and field observations while considering instrument sensitivity limitations. Here we present the Earth Model Column Collaboratory (EMC2), an open-source ground-based lidar and radar instrument simulator and subcolumn generator, specifically designed for large-scale models, in particular climate models, but also applicable to high-resolution model output. EMC2 provides a flexible framework enabling direct comparison of model output with ground-based observations, including generation of subcolumns that may statistically represent finer model spatial resolutions. In addition, EMC2 emulates ground-based (and air- or space-borne) measurements while remaining faithful to large-scale models' physical assumptions implemented in their cloud or radiation schemes. The simulator uses either single particle or bulk particle size distribution lookup tables, depending on the selected scheme approach, to perform the forward calculations. To facilitate model evaluation, EMC2 also includes three hydrometeor classification methods, namely, radar- and sounding-based cloud and precipitation detection and classification, lidar-based phase classification, and a Cloud Feedback Model Intercomparison Project Observational Simulator Package (COSP) lidar simulator emulator. The software is written in Python, is easy to use, and can be straightforwardly customized for different models, radars, and lidars. Following the description of the logic, functionality, features, and software structure of EMC2, we present a case study of highly supercooled mixed-phase cloud based on measurements from the U.S. Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) West Antarctic Radiation Experiment (AWARE). We compare observations with the application of EMC2 to outputs from four configurations of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) climate model (ModelE3) in single-column model (SCM) mode and from a large-eddy simulation (LES) model. We show that two of the four ModelE3 configurations can form and maintain highly supercooled precipitating cloud for several hours, consistent with observations and LES. While our focus is on one of these ModelE3 configurations, which performed slightly better in this case study, both of these configurations and the LES results post-processed with EMC2 generally provide reasonable agreement with observed lidar and radar variables. As briefly demonstrated here, EMC2 can provide a lightweight and flexible framework for comparing the results of both large-scale and high-resolution models directly with observations, with relatively little overhead and multiple options for achieving consistency with model microphysical or radiation scheme physics.

Earth Model Column Collaboratory↗
DOE OSTI2013

Bayesian calibration of thermodynamic models for the uptake of CO{sub 2} in supported amine sorbents using ab initio priors

A statistical methodology was applied to the simultaneous calibration and validation of thermodynamic models for the uptake of CO{sub 2} in mesoporous silica-supported amines. The methodology is Bayesian, and follows the procedure introduced by Kennedy and O'Hagan. One key aspect of the application presented is the use of quantum chemical calculations to define prior probability distributions for physical model parameters. Inclusion of this prior information proved to be crucial to the identifiability of model parameters against experimental thermogravimetric data. Through the statistical analysis, a quantitative assessment of the accuracy of various quantum chemical methods is produced. Another important aspect of the current approach is the conditioning of the model form discrepancy – a critical component of the Kennedy and O'Hagan methodology – to the experimental data in such a manner that it becomes an implicit function of the model parameters and thereby connected with the posterior distribution. It is shown that the inclusion of prior information in the analysis leads to a shifting of uncertainty from the posterior distribution for model parameters to this conditioned model form discrepancy. Prospects for more accurate model predictions and propagation of uncertainty in upscaling and extrapolation through a “model-plus-discrepancy” approach are discussed. The synthesis methods and thermogravimetric characterization of hybrid grafted/impregnated mesoporous silica-supported amine sorbents are presented, along with the details of the quantum chemical study, which shows that a carbamic acid–base acceptor complex is the most stable form of adsorbed CO{sub 2} in both alkanol- and ethyleneamines.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

Leveraging observed soil heterotrophic respiration fluxes as a novel constraint on global-scale models

Microbially-explicit models may improve understanding and projections of carbon dynamics in response to future climate change, but their fidelity in simulating global-scale soil heterotrophic respiration (RH), a stringent test for soil biogeochemical models, has never been evaluated. We used statistical global RH products, as well as 7,821 daily site-scale RH measurements, to evaluate the spatio-temporal performance of one first-order decay model (CASA-CNP) and two microbially-explicit biogeochemical models (CORPSE and MIMICS) that were forced by two different climate datasets. CORPSE and MIMICS did not provide any measurable performance improvement; instead, the models were highly sensitive to the meteorological input data used to drive them. Spatial RH variability was generally well simulated except in the northern middle latitudes (~50°N) and arid regions; models captured the seasonal variability of RH well, but showed more divergence in tropic and arctic regions. Our results demonstrate that the next generation of biogeochemical models shows promise, but also needs to be improved for realistic spatio-temporal variability of RH. Finally, we emphasize the importance of net primary production, soil moisture, and soil temperature inputs, and that jointly evaluating soil models for their spatial (global scale) and temporal (site scale) performance provides crucial benchmarks for improving biogeochemical models.

Jian, Jinshi↗
DOE OSTI2015

An Analysis Platform for Multiscale Hydrogeologic Modeling with Emphasis on Hybrid Multiscale Methods

One of the most significant challenges facing hydrogeologic modelers is the disparity between those spatial and temporal scales at which fundamental flow, transport and reaction processes can best be understood and quantified (e.g., microscopic to pore scales, seconds to days) and those at which practical model predictions are needed (e.g., plume to aquifer scales, years to centuries). While the multiscale nature of hydrogeologic problems is widely recognized, technological limitations in computational and characterization restrict most practical modeling efforts to fairly coarse representations of heterogeneous properties and processes. For some modern problems, the necessary level of simplification is such that model parameters may lose physical meaning and model predictive ability is questionable for any conditions other than those to which the model was calibrated. Recently, there has been broad interest across a wide range of scientific and engineering disciplines in simulation approaches that more rigorously account for the multiscale nature of systems of interest. In this paper, we review a number of such approaches and propose a classification scheme for defining different types of multiscale simulation methods and those classes of problems to which they are most applicable. Our classification scheme is presented in terms of a flow chart (Multiscale Analysis Platform or MAP), and defines several different motifs of multiscale simulation. Within each motif, the member methods are reviewed and example applications are discussed. We focus attention on hybrid multiscale methods, in which two or more models with different physics described at fundamentally different scales are directly coupled within a single simulation. Very recently these methods have begun to be applied to groundwater flow and transport simulations, and we discuss these applications in the context of our classification scheme. As computational and characterization capabilities continue to improve, we envision that hybrid multiscale modeling will become more common and may become a viable alternative to conventional single-scale models in the near future.

Environmental Molecular Sciences Laboratory↗
DOE OSTI2016

Ocean acidification over the next three centuries using a simple global climate carbon-cycle model: projections and sensitivities

Continued oceanic uptake of anthropogenic CO 2 is projected to significantly alter the chemistry of the upper oceans over the next three centuries, with potentially serious consequences for marine ecosystems. Relatively few models have the capability to make projections of ocean acidification, limiting our ability to assess the impacts and probabilities of ocean changes. In this study we examine the ability of Hector v1.1, a reduced-form global model, to project changes in the upper ocean carbonate system over the next three centuries, and quantify the model's sensitivity to parametric inputs. Hector is run under prescribed emission pathways from the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and compared to both observations and a suite of Coupled Model Intercomparison (CMIP5) model outputs. Current observations confirm that ocean acidification is already taking place, and CMIP5 models project significant changes occurring to 2300. Hector is consistent with the observational record within both the high- (> 55°) and low-latitude oceans (< 55°). The model projects low-latitude surface ocean pH to decrease from preindustrial levels of 8.17 to 7.77 in 2100, and to 7.50 in 2300; aragonite saturation levels (Ω Ar ) decrease from 4.1 units to 2.2 in 2100 and 1.4 in 2300 under RCP 8.5. These magnitudes and trends of ocean acidification within Hector are largely consistent with the CMIP5 model outputs, although we identify some small biases within Hector's carbonate system. Of the parameters tested, changes in [H + ] are most sensitive to parameters that directly affect atmospheric CO 2 concentrations – Q 10 (terrestrial respiration temperature response) as well as changes in ocean circulation, while changes in Ω Ar saturation levels are sensitive to changes in ocean salinity and Q 10 . We conclude that Hector is a robust tool well suited for rapid ocean acidification projections and sensitivity analyses, and it is capable of emulating both current observations and large-scale climate models under multiple emission pathways.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Machine Learning Emulators and Empirical Models Combining Climate and Global Crop Models for Seasonal Agricultural Production

We present results from several connected efforts to apply machine learning methods to estimates of seasonal agricultural production anomalies around the world. First, we apply the XGBoost Random Forest method to fit emulators that mimic global crop models participating in the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison (GGCMI). These are the same models used in the agricultural sector simulations of the Inter-Sectoral Impacts Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP). These emulators use 8 climate variables split across 5 sub-seasonal representations of the growing season for each ½ degree grid cell around the world for maize, wheat, rice and soybeans. Emulators are useful for estimating conditions that have not already been simulated by GGCMI (e.g., in a seasonal prediction model) and also to diagnose model differences and capabilities. For example, emulators of the pDSSAT maize model tend to be more reliant on mean temperatures than the LPJmL model, and few models have strong responses to cold extremes. Second, we use a similar XGBoost approach to fit empirical models for national production data for the top 20 producing countries according to the United Nations Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO). Models utilize both climate observations and the GGCM models as predictors, resulting in skillful models for many (but not all) top producing-countries. The patterns of climate and crop model features selected indicate regions and systems that are better or worse simulated by the GGCMs. For example, information in cold extreme predictors is often combined with GGCM output predictors to provide sensitivity that models may underrepresent.

machine learning↗
DOE OSTI2015

Development of a physiologically based pharmacokinetic model for assessment of human exposure to bisphenol A

A previously developed physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model for bisphenol A (BPA) in adult rhesus monkeys was modified to characterize the pharmacokinetics of BPA and its phase II conjugates in adult humans following oral ingestion. Coupled with in vitro studies on BPA metabolism in the liver and the small intestine, the PBPK model was parameterized using oral pharmacokinetic data with deuterated-BPA (d{sub 6}-BPA) delivered in cookies to adult humans after overnight fasting. The availability of the serum concentration time course of unconjugated d{sub 6}-BPA offered direct empirical evidence for the calibration of BPA model parameters. The recalibrated PBPK adult human model for BPA was then evaluated against published human pharmacokinetic studies with BPA. A hypothesis of decreased oral uptake was needed to account for the reduced peak levels observed in adult humans, where d{sub 6}-BPA was delivered in soup and food was provided prior to BPA ingestion, suggesting the potential impact of dosing vehicles and/or fasting on BPA disposition. With the incorporation of Monte Carlo analysis, the recalibrated adult human model was used to address the inter-individual variability in the internal dose metrics of BPA for the U.S. general population. Model-predicted peak BPA serum levels were in the range of pM, with 95% of human variability falling within an order of magnitude. This recalibrated PBPK model for BPA in adult humans provides a scientific basis for assessing human exposure to BPA that can serve to minimize uncertainties incurred during extrapolations across doses and species. - Highlights: • A PBPK model predicts the kinetics of bisphenol A (BPA) in adult humans. • Serum concentrations of aglycone BPA are available for model calibration. • Model predicted peak BPA serum levels for adult humans were in the range of pM. • Model predicted 95% of human variability fell within an order of magnitude.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2014

Analytical modeling of localized surface plasmon resonance in heterostructure copper sulfide nanocrystals

Localized surface plasmon resonance (LSPR) in semiconductor nanocrystals is a relatively new field of investigation that promises greater tunability of plasmonic properties compared to metal nanoparticles. A novel process by which the LSPR in semiconductor nanocrystals can be altered is through heterostructure formation arising from solution-based cation exchange. Herein, we describe the development of an analytical model of LSPR in heterostructure copper sulfide-zinc sulfide nanocrystals synthesized via a cation exchange reaction between copper sulfide (Cu 1.81 S) nanocrystals and Zn ions. The cation exchange reaction produces dual-interface, heterostructure nanocrystals in which the geometry of the copper sulfide phase can be tuned from a sphere to a thin disk separating symmetrically-grown sulfide (ZnS) grains. Drude model electronic conduction and Mie-Gans theory are applied to describe how the LSPR wavelength changes during cation exchange, taking into account the morphology evolution and changes to the local permittivity. The results of the modeling indicate that the presence of the ZnS grains has a significant effect on the out-of-plane LSPR mode. By comparing the results of the model to previous studies on solid-solid phase transformations of copper sulfide in these nanocrystals during cation exchange, we show that the carrier concentration is independent of the copper vacancy concentration dictated by its atomic phase. The evolution of the effective carrier concentration calculated from the model suggests that the out-of-plane resonance mode is dominant. The classical model was compared to a simplified quantum mechanical model which suggested that quantum mechanical effects become significant when the characteristic size is less than ~8 nm. Overall, we find that the analytical models are not accurate for these heterostructured semiconductor nanocrystals, indicating the need for new model development for this emerging field.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2015

A Bayesian approach for parameter estimation and prediction using a computationally intensive model

Bayesian methods have been successful in quantifying uncertainty in physics-based problems in parameter estimation and prediction. In these cases, physical measurements y are modeled as the best fit of a physics-based model eta(theta), where theta denotes the uncertain, best input setting. Hence the statistical model is of the form y = eta(theta) + c, where epsilon accounts for measurement, and possibly other, error sources. When nonlinearity is present in eta(center dot), the resulting posterior distribution for the unknown parameters in the Bayesian formulation is typically complex and nonstandard, requiring computationally demanding computational approaches such as Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) to produce multivariate draws from the posterior. Although generally applicable, MCMC requires thousands (or even millions) of evaluations of the physics model eta(center dot). This requirement is problematic if the model takes hours or days to evaluate. To overcome this computational bottleneck, we present an approach adapted from Bayesian model calibration. This approach combines output from an ensemble of computational model runs with physical measurements, within a statistical formulation, to carry out inference. A key component of this approach is a statistical response surface, or emulator, estimated from the ensemble of model runs. We demonstrate this approach with a case study in estimating parameters for a density functional theory model, using experimental mass/binding energy measurements from a collection of atomic nuclei. We also demonstrate how this approach produces uncertainties in predictions for recent mass measurements obtained at Argonne National Laboratory.

Higdon, Dave↗
DOE OSTI2013

Model morphing and sequence assignment after molecular replacement

A procedure for model building is described that combines morphing a model to match a density map, trimming the morphed model and aligning the model to a sequence. A procedure termed ‘morphing’ for improving a model after it has been placed in the crystallographic cell by molecular replacement has recently been developed. Morphing consists of applying a smooth deformation to a model to make it match an electron-density map more closely. Morphing does not change the identities of the residues in the chain, only their coordinates. Consequently, if the true structure differs from the working model by containing different residues, these differences cannot be corrected by morphing. Here, a procedure that helps to address this limitation is described. The goal of the procedure is to obtain a relatively complete model that has accurate main-chain atomic positions and residues that are correctly assigned to the sequence. Residues in a morphed model that do not match the electron-density map are removed. Each segment of the resulting trimmed morphed model is then assigned to the sequence of the molecule using information about the connectivity of the chains from the working model and from connections that can be identified from the electron-density map. The procedure was tested by application to a recently determined structure at a resolution of 3.2 Å and was found to increase the number of correctly identified residues in this structure from the 88 obtained using phenix.resolve sequence assignment alone (Terwilliger, 2003 ▶) to 247 of a possible 359. Additionally, the procedure was tested by application to a series of templates with sequence identities to a target structure ranging between 7 and 36%. The mean fraction of correctly identified residues in these cases was increased from 33% using phenix.resolve sequence assignment to 47% using the current procedure. The procedure is simple to apply and is available in the Phenix software package.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2019

Broadband (0–5 Hz) Fully Deterministic 3D Ground‐Motion Simulations of a Magnitude 7.0 Hayward Fault Earthquake: Comparison with Empirical Ground‐Motion Models and 3D Path and Site Effects from Source Normalized Intensities

We report on high‐performance computing (HPC) fully deterministic simulation of ground motions for a moment magnitude (⁠Mw⁠) 7.0 scenario earthquake on the Hayward fault resolved to 5 Hz using the SW4 finite‐difference code. We computed motions obeying physics‐based 3D wave propagation at a regional scale with an Mw 7.0 kinematic rupture model generated following Graves and Pitarka (2016). Both plane‐layered (1D) and 3D Earth models were considered, with 3D subsurface material properties and topography interpolated from a model of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). The resulting ground‐motion intensities cover a broader frequency range than typically considered in regional‐scale simulations, including higher frequencies relevant for engineering analysis of structures. Median intensities for sites across the domain are within the reported between‐event uncertainties (⁠τ⁠) of ground‐motion models (GMMs) across spectral periods 0.2–10 s (frequencies 0.1–5 Hz). The within‐event standard deviation ϕ of ground‐motion intensity measurement residuals range 0.2–0.5 natural log units with values consistently larger for the 3D model. Source‐normalized ratios of intensities (3D/1D) reveal patterns of path and site effects that are correlated with known geologic structure. These results demonstrate that earthquake simulations with fully deterministic wave propagation in 3D Earth models on HPC platforms produce broadband ground motions with median and within‐event aleatory variability consistent with empirical models. Systematic intensity variations for the 3D model caused by path and site effects suggest that these epistemic effects can be estimated and removed to reduce variation in site‐specific hazard estimates. This study motivates future work to evaluate the validity of the USGS 3D model and investigate the development of path and site corrections by running more scenarios.

Rodgers, Arthur J.↗
DOE OSTI2018

Baseline evaluation of the impact of updates to the MIT Earth System Model on its model parameter estimates

Abstract. For over 20 years, the Massachusetts Institute of Technology Earth System Model (MESM) has been used extensively for climate change research. The model is under continuous development with components being added and updated. To provide transparency in the model development, we perform a baseline evaluation by comparing model behavior and properties in the newest version to the previous model version. In particular, changes resulting from updates to the land surface model component and the input forcings used in historical simulations of climate change are investigated. We run an 1800-member ensemble of MESM historical climate simulations where the model parameters that set climate sensitivity, the rate of ocean heat uptake, and the net anthropogenic aerosol forcing are systematically varied. By comparing model output to observed patterns of surface temperature changes and the linear trend in the increase in ocean heat content, we derive probability distributions for the three model parameters. Furthermore, we run a 372-member ensemble of transient climate simulations where all model forcings are fixed and carbon dioxide concentrations are increased at the rate of 1 % year −1 . From these runs, we derive response surfaces for transient climate response and thermosteric sea level rise as a function of climate sensitivity and ocean heat uptake. We show that the probability distributions shift towards higher climate sensitivities and weaker aerosol forcing when using the new model and that the climate response surfaces are relatively unchanged between model versions. Because the response surfaces are independent of the changes to the model forcings and similar between model versions with different land surface models, we suggest that the change in land surface model has limited impact on the temperature evolution in the model. Thus, we attribute the shifts in parameter estimates to the updated model forcings.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

The Earth Model Column Collaboratory (EMC 2 ) v1.1: an open-source ground-based lidar and radar instrument simulator and subcolumn generator for large-scale models

Abstract. Climate models are essential for our comprehensive understanding of Earth's atmosphere and can provide critical insights on future changes decades ahead. Because of these critical roles, today's climate models are continuously being developed and evaluated using constraining observations and measurements obtained by satellites, airborne, and ground-based instruments. Instrument simulators can provide a bridge between the measured or retrieved quantities and their sampling in models and field observations while considering instrument sensitivity limitations. Here we present the Earth Model Column Collaboratory (EMC2), an open-source ground-based lidar and radar instrument simulator and subcolumn generator, specifically designed for large-scale models, in particular climate models, but also applicable to high-resolution model output. EMC2 provides a flexible framework enabling direct comparison of model output with ground-based observations, including generation of subcolumns that may statistically represent finer model spatial resolutions. In addition, EMC2 emulates ground-based (and air- or space-borne) measurements while remaining faithful to large-scale models' physical assumptions implemented in their cloud or radiation schemes. The simulator uses either single particle or bulk particle size distribution lookup tables, depending on the selected scheme approach, to perform the forward calculations. To facilitate model evaluation, EMC2 also includes three hydrometeor classification methods, namely, radar- and sounding-based cloud and precipitation detection and classification, lidar-based phase classification, and a Cloud Feedback Model Intercomparison Project Observational Simulator Package (COSP) lidar simulator emulator. The software is written in Python, is easy to use, and can be straightforwardly customized for different models, radars, and lidars. Following the description of the logic, functionality, features, and software structure of EMC2, we present a case study of highly supercooled mixed-phase cloud based on measurements from the U.S. Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) West Antarctic Radiation Experiment (AWARE). We compare observations with the application of EMC2 to outputs from four configurations of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) climate model (ModelE3) in single-column model (SCM) mode and from a large-eddy simulation (LES) model. We show that two of the four ModelE3 configurations can form and maintain highly supercooled precipitating cloud for several hours, consistent with observations and LES. While our focus is on one of these ModelE3 configurations, which performed slightly better in this case study, both of these configurations and the LES results post-processed with EMC2 generally provide reasonable agreement with observed lidar and radar variables. As briefly demonstrated here, EMC2 can provide a lightweight and flexible framework for comparing the results of both large-scale and high-resolution models directly with observations, with relatively little overhead and multiple options for achieving consistency with model microphysical or radiation scheme physics.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Development of the tangent linear and adjoint models of the global online chemical transport model MPAS-CO 2 v7.3

We describe the development of the tangent linear (TL) and adjoint models of the Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS)-CO 2 transport model, which is a global online chemical transport model developed upon the non-hydrostatic Model for Prediction Across Scales – Atmosphere (MPAS-A). The primary goal is to make the model system a valuable research tool for investigating atmospheric carbon transport and inverse modeling. First, we develop the TL code, encompassing all CO 2 transport processes within the MPAS-CO 2 forward model. Then, we construct the adjoint model using a combined strategy involving re-calculation and storage of the essential meteorological variables needed for CO 2 transport. This strategy allows the adjoint model to undertake a long-period integration with moderate memory demands. To ensure accuracy, the TL and adjoint models undergo vigorous verifications through a series of standard tests. The adjoint model, through backward-in-time integration, calculates the sensitivity of atmospheric CO 2 observations to surface CO 2 fluxes and the initial atmospheric CO 2 mixing ratio. To demonstrate the utility of the newly developed adjoint model, we conduct simulations for two types of atmospheric CO 2 observations, namely the tower-based in situ CO 2 mixing ratio and satellite-derived column-averaged CO 2 mixing ratio (X CO 2 ). A comparison between the sensitivity to surface flux calculated by the MPAS-CO 2 adjoint model with its counterpart from CarbonTracker–Lagrange (CT-L) reveals a spatial agreement but notable magnitude differences. These differences, particularly evident for X CO 2 , might be attributed to the two model systems' differences in the simulation configuration, spatial resolution, and treatment of vertical mixing processes. Moreover, this comparison highlights the substantial loss of information in the atmospheric CO 2 observations due to CT-L's spatial domain limitation. Furthermore, the adjoint sensitivity analysis demonstrates that the sensitivities to both surface flux and initial CO 2 conditions spread out throughout the entire Northern Hemisphere within a month. MPAS-CO 2 forward, TL, and adjoint models stand out for their calculation efficiency and variable-resolution capability, making them competitive in computational cost. In conclusion, the successful development of the MPAS-CO 2 TL and adjoint models, and their integration into the MPAS-CO 2 system, establish the possibility of using MPAS's unique features in atmospheric CO 2 transport sensitivity studies and in inverse modeling with advanced methods such as variational data assimilation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

Quantifying Model Form Uncertainty of Epidemic Forecasting Models from Incidence Data

Objective We present a mathematical framework for non-parametric estimation of the force of infection, together with statistical upper and lower confidence bands. The resulting estimates allow to assess how well simpler models, such as SEIR, fit the observed time series of incidence data.IntroductionUncertainty Quantification (UQ), the ability to quantify the impact of sample-to-sample variations and model misspecification on predictions and forecasts, is a critical aspect of disease surveillance. While quantifying the impact of stochastic uncertainty in the data is well understood, quantifying the impact of model misspecification is significantly harder. For the latter, one needs a "universal model" to which more restrictive parametric models are compared too.MethodsThis talk presents a useful modeling framework for time series of incidence data from contagious diseases that enables one to identify and quantify the impact of model form uncertainty. Specifically, we propose to focus on estimating the timedependent force of infection. The latter is a universal parameters for all contagious disease model. Using a machine learning technique for estimating monotone functions, i.e., isotonic regression and its variants, one can estimate the force ofinfection without addtional assumptions. We note that most contagious disease model do satisfy this monotonicity assumption, due to a combination of factors: depletion of susceptibles, implementation of mitigation strategies, behavior change, etc. Comparing the resulting "non-parametric" estimate with parametric estimates, obtained by fitting an SEIR for example, can reveal model deficiencies and help quantify model form uncertainties.Finally, we discuss how ideas from "strict bound theory" can be used to develop upper and lower uncertainty bands for force of infection that acknowledge the intrinsic stochasticity in the data.ResultsWe demonstrate the application of the methodology to weekly Influenza Like Illness (ILI) incidence data from France andcompare the results to fitted SIR and SEIR models. This comparison can be seen as a nonparametric goodness of fit test, providing one with tools to do simple model selection.ConclusionsWe present a novel and flexible model to statistically describe the force of infection as a function of time. Comparing the fit to incidence data of that model with the fit of simpler parametric models enables the quantification of model form uncertainty and associated model selection.

Hengartner, Nicholas↗
NASA NTRS2018

Greedy Sampling and Incremental Surrogate Model-Based Tailoring of Aeroservoelastic Model Database for Flexible Aircraft

This paper presents a data analysis and modeling framework to tailor and develop linear parameter-varying (LPV) aeroservoelastic (ASE) model database for flexible aircrafts in broad 2D flight parameter space. The Kriging surrogate model is constructed using ASE models at a fraction of grid points within the original model database, and then the ASE model at any flight condition can be obtained simply through surrogate model interpolation. The greedy sampling algorithm is developed to select the next sample point that carries the worst relative error between the surrogate model prediction and the benchmark model in the frequency domain among all input-output channels. The process is iterated to incrementally improve surrogate model accuracy till a pre-determined tolerance or iteration budget is met. The methodology is applied to the ASE model database of a flexible aircraft currently being tested at NASA/AFRC for flutter suppression and gust load alleviation. Our studies indicate that the proposed method can reduce the number of models in the original database by 67%. Even so the ASE models obtained through Kriging interpolation match the model in the original database constructed directly from the physics-based tool with the worst relative error far below 1%. The interpolated ASE model exhibits continuously-varying gains along a set of prescribed flight conditions. More importantly, the selected grid points are distributed non-uniformly in the parameter space, a) capturing the distinctly different dynamic behavior and its dependence on flight parameters, and b) reiterating the need and utility for adaptive space sampling techniques for ASE model database compaction. The present framework is directly extendible to high-dimensional flight parameter space, and can be used to guide the ASE model development, model order reduction, robust control synthesis and novel vehicle design of flexible aircraft.

numerical analysi↗
DOE OSTI2021

Accounting for uncertainty in complex alluvial aquifer modeling by Bayesian multi-model approach

Alluvial aquifers by nature are complex caused by varied depositional environments. Developing a reliable groundwater model to represent an alluvial aquifer is non-trivial. Also, relying on a single best calibrated model may not be sufficient because of an inadequate choice of model parameter values. To better understand groundwater dynamics and improve model prediction reliability, this study presents a Bayesian multi-model uncertainty quantification (BMMUQ) framework to account for model parameter uncertainty in complex alluvial groundwater modeling. The methodology was applied to the agriculturally intensive Mississippi River alluvial aquifer (MRAA), Northeast Louisiana. An aquifer architecture was first constructed using 7,259 well logs in the MRAA area which covers three fluvial deposits (alluvium, braided-stream terrace, and braided-stream terrace-loess). A 12-layer MODFLOW model was then developed to address the alluvial aquifer complexity and well calibrated through a genetic algorithm. This study quantified model parameter uncertainty in hydraulic conductivity and specific storage of sand facies. Bayesian model averaging (BMA) with the Expectation Maximization (EM) algorithm was adopted to derive posterior model weights and head variances of 50 alternative conceptual groundwater flow models, and thereby obtains BMA ensemble model predictions instead of only relying on the best calibrated conceptual model. Overall, results show that an estimated around 950 million m3 of groundwater storage loss occurs in 2015 with respect to the beginning of 2004, due to high groundwater demand for irrigation in the MRAA area. Explicitly quantifying model uncertainty can produce more reliable groundwater level predictions from BMA ensemble model. The presented groundwater modeling framework improves our understanding of the MRAA and provides a valuable tool to assist agricultural water management.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Combined selection of the dynamic model and modeling error in nonlinear aeroelastic systems using Bayesian Inference

Here, we report a Bayesian framework for concurrent selection of physics-based models and (modeling) error models. We investigate the use of colored noise to capture the mismatch between the predictions of calibrated models and observational data that cannot be explained by measurement error alone within the context of Bayesian estimation for stochastic ordinary differential equations. Proposed models are characterized by the average data-fit, a measure of how well a model fits the measurements, and the model complexity measured using the Kullback–Leibler divergence. The use of a more complex error models increases the average data-fit but also increases the complexity of the combined model, possibly over-fitting the data. Bayesian model selection is used to find the optimal physical model as well as the optimal error model. The optimal model is defined using the evidence, where the average data-fit is balanced by the complexity of the model. The effect of colored noise process is illustrated using a nonlinear aeroelastic oscillator representing a rigid NACA0012 airfoil undergoing limit cycle oscillations due to complex fluid–structure interactions. Several quasi-steady and unsteady aerodynamic models are proposed with colored noise or white noise for the model error. The use of colored noise improves the predictive capabilities of simpler models.

42 ENGINEERING↗