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NASA NTRS2021

Global Soil Water Estimates as Landslide Predictor: The Effectiveness of SMOS, SMAP, and GRACE Observations, Land Surface Simulations, and Data Assimilation

This global feasibility study assesses the potential of coarse-scale, gridded soil water estimates for the probabilistic modeling of hydrologically-triggered landslides, using Soil Moisture Ocean Salinity (SMOS), Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) and Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) remote sensing data, Catchment Land Surface Model (CLSM) simulations and six data products based on the assimilation of SMOS, SMAP, and/or GRACE observations into CLSM. SMOS or SMAP observations (~40-km resolution) are only available for less than 20% of the globally reported landslide events, because they are intermittent and uncertain in regions with complex terrain. GRACE terrestrial water storage estimates include 75% of the reported landslides but have coarse spatial and temporal resolutions (monthly, ~300-km). CLSM soil water simulations have the added advantage of complete spatial and temporal coverage, and are found to be able to distinguish between “stable slope” (no landslide) conditions and landslide-inducing conditions in a probabilistic way. Assimilating SMOS and/or GRACE data increases the landslide probability estimates based on soil water percentiles for the reported landslides, relative to model-only estimates at 36-km resolution for the period 2011-2016, unless the CLSM model-only soil water content is already high (≥ 50th percentile). The SMAP Level 4 data assimilation product (at 9-km resolution, period 2015-2019) more generally updates the soil water conditions towards higher landslide probabilities for the reported landslides, but is similar to model-only estimates for the majority of landslides where SMAP data cannot easily be converted to soil moisture owing to complex terrain.

Anne Felsberg↗

DOE OSTI2022

Computational Design of Alloys for Energy Technologies

Advanced materials that maintain their mechanical performance under elevated temperatures, corrosive environments, and a range of static and evolving stresses are needed to improve the efficiency and reduce the environmental impact of a wide spectrum of energy technologies. For instance, cost-efficient alloys that can withstand high temperatures (e.g., 700 °C) have a critical role in improving the efficiency and economics of power generation to support decarbonization of the energy sector; such is true of both the nuclear and fossil energy sectors. Considering both the threats of the energy crisis, namely soaring costs of greenhouse gas emission-producing energy and climate change, it is essential to increase the pace of material discovery and enable rapid paths for material qualification to advance clean energy technologies. Conventionally, alloy development has followed a slow Edisonian process that uses repeated cycles of making, characterizing, and modifying to arrive at optimum composition and processing conditions to achieve the desired component performance. This optimization is followed by the necessary stepwise materials qualification. Furthermore, the increasing adoption of sound data management and physics-informed machine learning represents the next step in the acceleration of materials design and development. In the integrated computational materials engineering (ICME) approach, computational modeling and simulation data from different length and time scales can be combined with complex microstructural details from multimodal experimental characterization and selective property testing to close the design loop for rapid alloy development.

Computational Design Of Materials↗

DOE OSTI2023

Modeling of Vertical Motor-driven Pump for Simulation of a Fault Signature \\ for Condition Monitoring

As part of the ongoing effort to transition from preventive maintenance strategies to condition-based maintenance strategies in nuclear power plants, there is significant reliance on using machine learning techniques. To develop a robust machine learning model that can diagnose all the fault modes of a vertical motor-driven pump, data capturing the unique signature of each fault mode is required. In practice, it is difficult to collect or capture data that captures all the fault modes from a single plant site. So to address this situation, a computational model of a vertical motor-driven pump is developed using the multipurpose finite element software COMSOL Multiphysics. The developed model is used to generate simulated data under normal operation and is compared with the vibration data collected using vibration sensors. Once the simulation model is verified under normal operating condition, simulated data for the fault mode for which minimal or no evidence is available in historical plant process data is developed. This simulated data is used to develop fault signatures to achieve robust predictive models. This paper presents modeling details and verification of the model that can used to generate data for fault modes that are not available at a plant site for condition monitoring purpose.

46 - INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AN↗

DOE OSTI2019

Oxalic Acid Adsorption on Rutile: Experiments and Surface Complexation Modeling to 150 °C

Here, we characterize oxalate adsorption by rutile in NaCl media (0.03 and 0.30 m) and between pH 3 and 10 over a wide temperature range which includes the near hydrothermal regime (10–150 °C). Oxalate adsorption increases with decreasing pH (as is typical for anion binding by metal oxides), but systematic trends with respect to ionic strength or temperature are absent. Surface complexation modeling (SCM) following the CD-MUSIC formalism, and as constrained by molecular modeling simulations and IR spectroscopic results from the literature, is used to interpret the adsorption data. The molecular modeling simulations, which include molecular dynamics simulations supported by free-energy and ab initio calculations, reveal that oxalate binding is outer-sphere, albeit via strong hydrogen bonds. Conversely, previous IR spectroscopic results conclude that various types of inner-sphere complexes often predominate. SCMs constrained by both the molecular modeling results and the IR spectroscopic data were developed, and both fit the adsorption data equally well. We conjecture that the discrepancy between the molecular simulation and IR spectroscopic results is due to the nature of the rutile surfaces investigated, that is, the perfect (110) crystal faces for the molecular simulations and various rutile powders for the IR spectroscopy studies. Although the (110) surface plane is most often dominant for rutile powders, a variety of steps, kinks, and other types of surface defects are also invariably present. Hence, we speculate that surface defect sites may be primarily responsible for inner-sphere oxalate adsorption, although further study is necessary to prove or disprove this hypothesis.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

NASA NTRS2015

Can Simulation Credibility Be Improved Using Sensitivity Analysis to Understand Input Data Effects on Model Outcome?

Model and simulation (MS) credibility is defined as, the quality to elicit belief or trust in MS results. NASA-STD-7009 [1] delineates eight components (Verification, Validation, Input Pedigree, Results Uncertainty, Results Robustness, Use History, MS Management, People Qualifications) that address quantifying model credibility, and provides guidance to the model developers, analysts, and end users for assessing the MS credibility. Of the eight characteristics, input pedigree, or the quality of the data used to develop model input parameters, governing functions, or initial conditions, can vary significantly. These data quality differences have varying consequences across the range of MS application. NASA-STD-7009 requires that the lowest input data quality be used to represent the entire set of input data when scoring the input pedigree credibility of the model. This requirement provides a conservative assessment of model inputs, and maximizes the communication of the potential level of risk of using model outputs. Unfortunately, in practice, this may result in overly pessimistic communication of the MS output, undermining the credibility of simulation predictions to decision makers. This presentation proposes an alternative assessment mechanism, utilizing results parameter robustness, also known as model input sensitivity, to improve the credibility scoring process for specific simulations.

Credibility↗

DOE OSTI2023

Software for Heliospheric Science

This software is being developed to support data analysis, modeling, and simulation for the growing field of heliosphere physics. In particular, this software will implement data analysis, modeling, inference, and simulation of physical mechanisms describing how energetic neutral atoms behave within the Earth’s heliosphere and in the interstellar medium beyond.

VanDervort, Lauren↗

NASA NTRS2017

Daily Ambient Air Pollution Metrics for Five Cities: Evaluation of Data Fusion-Based Estimates and Uncertainties

Spatiotemporal characterization of ambient air pollutant concentrations is increasingly relying on the combination of observations and air quality models to provide well-constrained, spatially and temporally complete pollutant concentration fields. Air quality models, in particular, are attractive, as they characterize the emissions, meteorological, and physiochemical process linkages explicitly while providing continuous spatial structure. However, such modeling is computationally intensive and has biases. The limitations of spatially sparse and temporally incomplete observations can be overcome by blending the data with estimates from a physically and chemically coherent model, driven by emissions and meteorological inputs. We recently developed a data fusion method that blends ambient ground observations and chemical transport-modeled (CTM) data to estimate daily, spatially resolved pollutant concentrations and associatedcorrelations. In this study, we assess the ability of the data fusion method to produce daily metrics (i.e., 1-hr max, 8-hr max, and 24-hr average) of ambient air pollution that capture spatiotemporal air pollution trends for 12 pollutants (CO, NO2, NOx, O3, SO2, PM (sub10), PM (sub 2.5), and five PM (sub 2.5) components) across five metropolitan areas (Atlanta, Birmingham, Dallas, Pittsburgh, and St. Louis), from 2002 to 2008. Three sets of comparisons are performed: (1) the CTM concentrations are evaluated for each pollutant and metropolitan domain, (2) the data fusion concentrations are compared with the monitor data, (3) a comprehensive cross-validation analysis against observed data evaluates the quality of the data fusion model simulations across multiple metropolitan domains. The resulting daily spatial field estimates of air pollutant concentrations and uncertainties are not only consistent with observations, emissions, andmeteorology, but substantially improve CTM-derived results for nearly all pollutants and all cities, with the exception of NO2 for Birmingham. The greatest improvements occur for O3 and PM (sub 2.5). Squared spatiotemporal correlation coefficients range between simulations and observations determined using cross-validation across all cities for air pollutants of secondary and mixed origins are R-squared equal to 0.88-0.93 (O3), 0.81-0.89 (SO4), 0.67-0.83 (PM (sub 2.5)), 0.52-0.72 (NO3), 0.43-0.80 (NH4), 0.32-0.51 (OC), and 0.14-0.71 (PM (sub 10)). Results for relatively homogeneous pollutants of secondary origin, tend to be better than those for more spatially heterogeneous (larger spatial gradients) pollutants of primary origin (NOx, CO, SO2 and EC). Generally, background concentrations and spatial concentration gradients reflect interurban airshed complexity and the effects of regional transport, whereas daily spatial pattern variability shows intra urban consistency in the fused data. With sufficiently high CTM spatial resolution, traffic-related pollutants exhibit gradual concentration gradients that peak toward the urban centers. Ambient pollutant concentration uncertainty estimates for the fused data are both more accurate and smaller than those for either the observations or the model simulations alone.

spatiotemporal fusion↗

DOE OSTI2016

SUMMIT v2.1 Summary Report

Standard Unified Modeling Mapping and Integration Toolkit (SUMMIT) is a software capability developed by Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) under the direction and funding of the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), Science and Technology Directorate (S&T). SUMMIT is a scalable platform technology for linking together “best-in-class” models, data, and simulation tools to enable analysts, emergency planners and incident managers to more effectively, economically, and rapidly prepare, analyze, train, and respond to real or potential incidents. The SUMMIT software architecture was created under the Integrated Modeling, Mapping, and Simulation (IMMS) Project and was motivated by the issuance of Homeland Security Presidential Directive 8 (HSPD-8) which called for continuous improvement of our Nation’s preparedness to respond to catastrophic events. Furthermore, a state-of-the-art training and exercise facility called the National Exercise Simulation Center (NESC) was established within the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) headquarters.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Modeling of Vertical Motor-driven Pump for Simulation of a Fault Signature \\ for Condition Monitoring

46 - INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AN↗

NASA NTRS1993

A Reynolds stress model for near-wall turbulence

The paper formulates a tensorially consistent near-wall second-order closure model. Redistributive terms in the Reynolds stress equations are modeled by an elliptic relaxation equation in order to represent strongly nonhomogeneous effects produced by the presence of walls; this replaces the quasi-homogeneous algebraic models that are usually employed, and avoids the need for ad hoc damping functions. The model is solved for channel flow and boundary layers with zero and adverse pressure gradients. Good predictions of Reynolds stress components, mean flow, skin friction, and displacement thickness are obtained in various comparisons to experimental and direct numerical simulation data. The model is also applied to a boundary layer flowing along a wall with a 90-deg, constant-radius, convex bend.

Durbin, P. A.↗

NASA NTRS1983

Comparison of simulator fidelity model predictions with in-simulator evaluation data

A full factorial in simulator experiment of a single axis, multiloop, compensatory pitch tracking task is described. The experiment was conducted to provide data to validate extensions to an analytic, closed loop model of a real time digital simulation facility. The results of the experiment encompassing various simulation fidelity factors, such as visual delay, digital integration algorithms, computer iteration rates, control loading bandwidths and proprioceptive cues, and g-seat kinesthetic cues, are compared with predictions obtained from the analytic model incorporating an optimal control model of the human pilot. The in-simulator results demonstrate more sensitivity to the g-seat and to the control loader conditions than were predicted by the model. However, the model predictions are generally upheld, although the predicted magnitudes of the states and of the error terms are sometimes off considerably. Of particular concern is the large sensitivity difference for one control loader condition, as well as the model/in-simulator mismatch in the magnitude of the plant states when the other states match.

Parrish, R. V.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Population-level Dark Energy Constraints from Strong Gravitational Lensing using Simulation-Based Inference

In this work, we present a scalable approach for inferring the dark energy equation-of-state parameter ($w$) from a population of strong gravitational lens images using Simulation-Based Inference (SBI). Strong gravitational lensing offers crucial insights into cosmology, but traditional Monte Carlo methods for cosmological inference are computationally prohibitive and inadequate for processing the thousands of lenses anticipated from future cosmic surveys. New tools for inference, such as SBI using Neural Ratio Estimation (NRE), address this challenge effectively. By training a machine learning model on simulated data of strong lenses, we can learn the likelihood-to-evidence ratio for robust inference. Our scalable approach enables more constrained population-level inference of $w$ compared to individual lens analysis, constraining $w$ to within $1\sigma$. Our model can be used to provide cosmological constraints from forthcoming strong lens surveys, such as the 4MOST Strong Lensing Spectroscopic Legacy Survey (4SLSLS), which is expected to observe 10,000 strong lenses.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2024

Population-level Dark Energy Constraints from Strong Gravitational Lensing using Simulation-Based Inference

In this work, we present a scalable approach for inferring the dark energy equation-of-state parameter ($w$) from a population of strong gravitational lens images using Simulation-Based Inference (SBI). Strong gravitational lensing offers crucial insights into cosmology, but traditional Monte Carlo methods for cosmological inference are computationally prohibitive and inadequate for processing the thousands of lenses anticipated from future cosmic surveys. New tools for inference, such as SBI using Neural Ratio Estimation (NRE), address this challenge effectively. By training a machine learning model on simulated data of strong lenses, we can learn the likelihood-to-evidence ratio for robust inference. Our scalable approach enables more constrained population-level inference of $w$ compared to individual lens analysis, constraining $w$ to within 1$\sigma$. Our model can be used to provide cosmological constraints from forthcoming strong lens surveys, such as the 4MOST Strong Lensing Spectroscopic Legacy Survey (4SLSLS), which is expected to observe 10,000 strong lenses.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2019

Development and Calibration of an Online Energy Model for AHU Fan

The model development is necessary for the study of the energy consumption of Heating, Ventilation, and Air Conditioning (HVAC) systems. To predict the HVAC energy consumption accurately, one needs to model the individual HVAC components either from the measured data or based on the knowledge of the underlying physical phenomenon. Online model characterization is critical for improving the performance of real-time model-based fault detection and diagnosis (FDD) strategies. For HVAC control, models can be used to optimize the supervisory and local feedback control strategies to improve the energy consumption efficiency, or for providing ancillary services to the grid. It has been reported that, fans in HVAC systems of commercial buildings alone can provide substantial frequency regulation service, with little change in the indoor environment. In this paper, a real-time data-driven Air Handling Unit (AHU) fan model was developed based on recursive multi regression model. A generic nonlinear polynomial model has been studied to cover scenarios with different combinations of measurement variables, variable orders as well as different training and prediction horizons. Typical measurements including static pressure, mass flow rate, and damper positions are utilized as inputs to model the power consumption of the fan. The developed models have been validated both with simulation data from EnergyPlus-Dymola co-simulation model and with field measurement data for small to medium commercial buildings. The validation results show that the online model proposed can provide an effective prediction of the AHU fan power consumption.

Dong, Jin↗

DOE OSTI2023

Analysis Program 2022 Annual Progress Report

The VTO Analysis Program supports mission-critical technological, economic, and interdisciplinary analyses to assist in prioritizing VTO technology investments and to inform research portfolio planning. These efforts provide essential vehicle and market data, modeling and simulation, and integrated and applied analyses, using the unique capabilities, analytical tools, and expertise resident in the DOE’s national laboratory system. VTO Analysis projects also demonstrate additional capabilities and expertise provided by research partnerships that may include academia, the private sector, and non-profit organizations.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Climatic Controls on Soil Carbon Accumulation and Loss in a Dryland Ecosystems

Arid and semiarid ecosystems drive year-to-year variability in the strength of the terrestrial carbon (C) sink, yet there is uncertainty about how soil C gains and losses contribute to this variation. For this work, to address this knowledge gap, we embedded C-depleted soil mesocosms, containing litter or biocrust C inputs, within an in situ dryland ecosystem warming experiment. Over the course of one year, changes in microbial biomass and total soil organic C pools were monitored alongside hourly measurements of soil CO 2 flux. We also developed a biogeochemical model to explore the mechanisms that gave rise to observed soil C dynamics. Field data and model simulations demonstrated that water exerted much stronger control on soil biogeochemistry than temperature, with precipitation events triggering large CO 2 pulses and transport of litter- and biocrust-derived C into the soil profile. We expected leaching of organic matter would result in steady accumulation of C within the mineral soil over time. Instead, the size of the total organic C pool fluctuated throughout the year, largely in response to microbial growth: increases in the size of microbial biomass were negatively correlated with the quantity of C residing in the top 2 cm, where most biogeochemical changes were observed. Our data and models suggest that microbial responses to precipitation events trigger rapid metabolism of dissolved organic C inputs, which strongly limit accumulation of autotroph-derived C belowground. Accordingly, changes in the magnitude and/or frequency of precipitation events in this dryland ecosystem could have profound impacts on the strength of the soil C sink.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2017

The DeepMIP Contribution to PMIP4: Experimental Design for Model Simulations of the EECO, PETM, and pre-PETM (version 1.0)

Past warm periods provide an opportunity to evaluate climate models under extreme forcing scenarios, in particular high ( greater than 800 ppmv) atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Although a post hoc intercomparison of Eocene (approximately 50 Ma) climate model simulations and geological data has been carried out previously, models of past high-CO2 periods have never been evaluated in a consistent framework. Here, we present an experimental design for climate model simulations of three warm periods within the early Eocene and the latest Paleocene (the EECO, PETM, and pre-PETM). Together with the CMIP6 pre-industrial control and abrupt 4(times) CO2 simulations, and additional sensitivity studies, these form the first phase of DeepMIP - the Deep-time Model Intercomparison Project, itself a group within the wider Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP). The experimental design specifies and provides guidance on boundary conditions associated with palaeogeography, greenhouse gases, astronomical configuration, solar constant, land surface processes, and aerosols. Initial conditions, simulation length, and output variables are also specified. Finally, we explain how the geological data sets, which will be used to evaluate the simulations, will be developed.

climate models↗

DOE OSTI2022

Transforming Energy Through Computational Excellence: High-Performance Computing for Energy Innovation

The challenges associated with energy efficiency of manufacturing and advanced materials often cannot be addressed through experimentation alone, whether because of scale, complexity, or practicality. High-performance computing (HPC) enables fast tackling of these challenges in the manufacturing sector - vital to achieving net-zero carbon emissions by 2050. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and industry partners leverage HPC to apply advanced modeling, simulation, and data analysis to improve manufacturing efficiency, explore new materials for energy applications, and develop technologies to manage carbon across the life cycle. From improving additive manufacturing processes to increasing the energy efficiency of jet-engine components, advanced computing can help manage emissions produced by manufacturing in a wide variety of ways.

advanced materials↗