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At least 253 records · Page 14

Decayheatml

This code is designed to predict and analyze the decay heat generated in molten salt reactors (MSRs) using a hybrid approach that combines machine learning and segmented polynomial fitting. The accurate prediction of decay heat is essential for reactor safety and the optimization of spent fuel storage. The code operates through several key components: 1) Data Architecture: It incorporates a modular data architecture that handles various MSR-specific operational parameters such as power density, humidity content, and air ingress. These parameters are sampled using Sobol sequences to ensure comprehensive coverage of operational uncertainties. 2) Machine Learning Framework: The code employs a diverse set of machine learning models, including polynomial regression, decision trees, random forests, gradient boosting, support vector regression, k-nearest neighbors, multi-layer perceptrons, and symbolic regression. These models are trained to predict decay heat over a wide temporal range, from immediate shutdown up to 10,000 years. 3) Region-Optimized Training: The temporal domain is divided into multiple regions, each modeled separately to capture distinct decay heat characteristics across different time scales. This approach significantly improves the accuracy and interpretability of predictions. 4) Segmented Polynomial Interpretation (SPI): The SPI method translates machine learning predictions into piecewise polynomial equations. These equations are physically interpretable and can be directly integrated into existing engineering workflows and safety analyses. 5) Front-End Interfaces: The code includes both a Jupyter notebook interface for research development and a Streamlit web application for operational deployment. These interfaces allow users to interactively explore decay heat predictions, adjust operational parameters, and visualize results in real-time. 6) Applications: The framework supports various applications, including safety system validation and spent fuel container optimization. It enables real-time evaluation of worst-case decay heat scenarios, informing the design of passive safety systems and optimizing container designs for long-term storage. Overall, this code provides a robust, accurate, and user-friendly tool for predicting decay heat in MSRs, enhancing reactor safety, and optimizing spent fuel management.

Retamales, Mauricio Eduardo Tano [Idaho National L↗

Data for Soil Fertility Management for Sustainable Miscanthus × giganteus Production: Increased Tiller Weight from Nitrogen Management Explains Yield Gains in Aged Miscanthus

Aging-related yield decline in Miscanthus × giganteus (miscanthus) remains a major constraint to sustainable biomass production. This study evaluated how nitrogen (N) management and soil fertility influence yield-component traits and productivity in aging miscanthus. Trials were conducted at two sites established in 2008 at the University of Illinois Energy Farm, Urbana, IL. (i) The Sun Grant trial received 0, 60, and 120 kg N ha−1 annually until 2015. Starting 2021, half of each plot received 60 or 120 kg N ha−1, resulting in six legacy-contemporary treatments: 0N–0N, 0N–120N, 60N–0N, 60N–60N, 120N–0N, 120N–120N. (ii) The Energy Farm trial remained unfertilized until 2014, when one half of each plot received 56 kg N ha−1, forming two treatments: 0N–0N, 0N–56N. Sun Grant trial results showed N fertilization increased tiller density (tillers m−2) and tiller weight (g tiller−1) in juvenile to early-mature miscanthus (2011–2015). After N withdrawal, both traits declined (20 % and 40 %), though legacy effects persisted in tiller weight in the aging stands (2020–2023). Contemporary N had little effect on tiller density but increased tiller weight by 34 %–77 %, resulting in 23 %–106 % higher machine-harvested biomass yield in 0–120N, 60-60N, and 120-120N plots. At the Energy Farm trial, 0N–56N plots yielded 59 %–108 % more biomass than 0N–0N. Soil total N increased (Sun Grant: 47 % by 2020; Energy Farm: 58 % by 2023), while Mehlich-3 P (42 %–44 %) and K (21 %–46 %) declined. These findings identify tiller weight as a key determinant of biomass yield in aging miscanthus and highlight the need for P and K management for long-term productivity.

miscanthus↗

Numerical Investigation of Heat Transfer and Fluid Flow within Electrochemical Hydrogen Peroxide Generation Unit

Long-term manned space missions require the onboard production of disinfectants essential for maintaining crew health and supporting life systems. Currently, disinfection aboard the International Space Station (ISS) relies on disposable wetted wipes, which are regularly resupplied from Earth. This approach imposes a significant burden on resupply logistics, storage, and waste management. To address these challenges and support future missions, efforts are underway to develop an in-situ solution that electrochemically generates hydrogen peroxide disinfectant using onboard resources. In collaboration with NASA, Faraday Technology, Inc. has advanced this concept through a series of Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) projects, resulting in the development of a Peroxide Generation Unit (PGU). The PGU can produce up to 3 wt.% hydrogen peroxide on-demand at a rate of 1 liter per day, providing a sustainable alternative to Earth-dependent supplies. The resulting aqueous hydrogen peroxide (H₂O₂) is an effective disinfectant, safe for crew use, compatible with spacecraft systems, and free from volatiles, off-gassing, or residues. This innovation offers a reliable, efficient solution for onboard disinfection, reducing dependence on Earth-based resupply while ensuring the health and safety of space crews. Generating hydrogen peroxide at the required rate needs high voltages and currents, exceeding 20V and 2A respectively, which leads to significant heat generation from Joule heating. This temperature rise poses a risk to sensitive system components, especially critical and expensive membranes that can degrade under thermal stress. To mitigate this risk, the thermal, fluid, and electrical flows within the system are modeled computationally using the commercial software COMSOL. The numerical simulations are validated against experimental data from both sub-scale and alpha-scale systems. Once verified, the model is employed to identify thermal hotspots, investigate their underlying causes, and explore solutions to prevent them.

Life Support Systems (LSS)↗

Development of A High-Resolution Dataset for Solar Resource Adequacy Studies

High-resolution, long-term solar dataset is essential for characterizing the variability of solar energy resources and for informing strategies that ensure grid reliability and resilience in grid systems with high levels of solar energy integration. We present the development of a new 4-km, hourly Earth system dataset for the contiguous United States (CONUS), using a statistical downscaling approach that integrates the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB) with regional Earth system model projections. The new high-resolution Earth system dataset includes key variables - GHI, DNI, DHI, surface air temperature, and wind speed - under two future scenarios. Preliminary results show a reasonable agreement with NSRDB observations, with nBias less than 1% for GHI across CONUS. The dataset is expected to support in-depth analyses of extreme weather impacts and provide input to resource adequacy for future energy systems with diverse generation sources.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Financial Analysis of the High Flow Experiment conducted at the Glen Canyon Dam during Water Year 2023

The Glen Canyon Dam (GCD) is a Colorado River Storage Project (CRSP) power resource that is a component of the Salt Lake City Area Integrated Projects (SLCA/IP). The 2016 record of decision (ROD) for the GCD long-term experimental and management plan (LTEMP) final Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) specified criteria for GCD monthly water releases, daily and hourly operating limits, and experimental releases. This report examines the financial implications of the high flow experiment (HFE) conducted at GCD during the spring of Water Year (WY) 2023 as required by the LTEMP HFE Protocol. This report is part of a series of reports that describe the financial costs of LTEMP experimental releases since the 2016 ROD was adopted in January 2017. Previous reports analyzed the impact of several past HFEs and Bug Flow Experiments. This report focuses on the HFE conducted in April 2023. For this experimental release, financial costs of approximately $1.33 million were incurred because the HFE required sustained water releases exceeding the power plant’s maximum turbine flow rate. In addition, during the experiment, operators were not allowed to shape GCD power production, either to follow Firm Electric Service (FES) customer day-ahead energy deliveries or to respond to market prices. This study identifies the main factors contributing to the HFE costs and examines the interdependencies among these factors. It applies an integrated set of tools to estimate Western Area Power Administration (WAPA) financial impacts by simulating GCD under two types of cases; namely, (1) a “With Experiment” case that mimics the operations that actually occurred and (2) a “Without Experiment” case that simulates operations under the assumption that the HFE did not occur. The “With Experiment” case mimics operations during the HFE and the entire month the HFE occurred. It complies with LTEMP hourly and daily operating criteria. The “Without Experiment” case assumes that the HFE did not occur. The monthly water release volume is assumed to be identical under both cases. The Colorado River Storage Project Python-based model (CRiSPPy) model was the main modeling tool used to simulate the dispatch of the GCD hydropower plant and associated water releases from Lake Powell. In the modeling process, the research team used extensive data sets and historical information on SLCA/IP power plant characteristics, hydrologic conditions, and WAPA’s power purchases and sales prices. In addition to estimating the financial impact of the HFE, the team used the CRiSPPy model to gain insights into the interplay among ROD operating criteria, exceptions made to criteria to accommodate the HFE, and WAPA operating practices.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Financial Analysis of the Smallmouth Bass Flows implemented at the Glen Canyon Dam during Water Year 2024

The Glen Canyon Dam (GCD) is a Colorado River Storage Project (CRSP) power resource that is a component of the Salt Lake City Area Integrated Projects (SLCA/IP). The 2016 record of decision (ROD) for the GCD long-term experimental and management plan (LTEMP) final Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) specifies criteria for GCD monthly water releases, daily and hourly operating limits, and experimental releases. This report presents a financial analysis of the Smallmouth bass (Micropterus dolomieu) (SMB) flows implemented at GCD during Water Year (WY) 2024. These bypass flows were introduced by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation (USBR) as an emergency response to the growing threat posed by invasive SMB in the Colorado River ecosystem downstream of the dam. SMB are a non-native predatory species that pose a significant threat to native fish populations, including the endangered humpback chub (Gila cypha). The thermal regime below GCD, typically cold due to hypolimnetic releases from Lake Powell, has historically served as a thermal barrier limiting SMB establishment. However, persistently low reservoir levels in recent years have reduced stratification in Lake Powell, allowing warmer water to be released downstream. This has enabled SMB to spawn successfully below the dam, prompting urgent ecological concerns. To mitigate the risk of SMB proliferation, the USBR implemented a series of bypass flows in WY 2024. Drawn from a lower elevation than the penstocks, the bypass structures released cooler water downstream. These short-duration bypass flows aimed to keep temperatures cool enough to prevent SMB from spawning, thereby reducing the ecological threat posed by this invasive species. Although motivated by ecological objectives, these bypass flows came with financial tradeoffs. Releasing water through the bypass structures instead of the turbines at GCD reduced hydropower generation, resulting in a significantly lower financial position for Western Area Power Administration (WAPA), which is responsible for marketing the electricity produced by the GCD Powerplant. This report analyzes the financial impact of the SMB flows implemented from July to November 2024. These experimental releases led to an estimated financial cost of approximately $18.9 million, primarily driven by the substantial volume of water diverted through the bypass structures. This study applies an integrated set of tools to estimate WAPA financial impacts by simulating GCD under two types of cases; namely, (1) a “With Experiment” case that mimics the water operations that actually occurred, including the SMB bypass flows, and (2) a “Without Experiment” case that simulates operations under the assumption that the SMB flows did not occur. Both cases comply with LTEMP hourly and daily operating criteria, and the monthly water release volumes are assumed to be identical under both cases. The Colorado River Storage Project Python-based model (CRiSPPy) model was the main modeling tool used to simulate the dispatch of the GCD hydropower plant and associated water releases from Lake Powell. In the modeling process, the research team used extensive data sets and historical information on SLCA/IP power plant characteristics, hydrologic conditions, and WAPA’s power purchases and sales prices.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Impact of in situ nuclear networks and atomic opacities on neutron star merger ejecta dynamics, nucleosynthesis, and kilonovae

Context. Binary neutron star merger (BNSM) ejecta are key sites of rapid neutron capture (r-process) nucleosynthesis and they produce kilonovae powered by the radioactive decay of freshly synthesized nuclei. Modeling their evolution requires multi-physics simulations involving hydrodynamics, nuclear reactions, and radiative processes. The impact of nuclear burning and atomic opacity is poorly understood and often treated with simplified prescriptions. Aims. We systematically investigate different treatments of nuclear heating, particle thermalization, and atomic opacities in radiation-hydrodynamics simulations of BNSM ejecta and kilonova light curves. Methods. Ejecta profiles from long-term numerical-relativity simulations of asymmetric neutron star binaries with a massive neutron star remnant were evolved to ∼30 days using a 2D ray-by-ray approach. We compared simplified heating-rate and thermalization prescriptions with in situ Nuclear reaction Network (NN) calculations that track nuclear energy deposition and include a composition-dependent thermalization scheme. We also contrasted various gray opacity models with a frequency-dependent treatment based on atomic calculations. Results. Coupling NN and hydrodynamics significantly affects nucleosynthesis and kilonova emission. Assuming homologous expansion alters abundance evolution and produces a narrower, less populated second r-process peak and a third peak shifted to higher mass numbers. The back-reaction of nuclear heating affects the temperature evolution enough to delay and redden the early (t∼ hours) kilonova peaks. A constant thermalization efficiency underestimates and reddens the early emission while overestimating the late-time luminosity compared to the composition-dependent treatment. Analytical opacity prescriptions yield a more extended, colder photosphere, resulting in dimmer, redder kilonovae at early times (t≲ hour), while the delayed recession of the photosphere prolongs the red emission at t ≳ 5 days. Conclusions. Coupling hydrodynamics to an in situ NN is crucial for reliable nucleosynthesis and kilonova predictions. Resolving the first several hundred milliseconds of the hydrodynamics is essential for robust nucleosynthesis calculations. Composition-dependent thermalization and frequency-dependent, atomic-physics-based opacities are needed to accurately capture the temperature evolution of the ejecta and the brightness and color evolution of the kilonova. Calibrated analytic nuclear-power fits with simplified thermalization and opacity prescriptions can still reproduce the density and temperature evolution of the ejecta.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗

New Norms or Old Habits: Evaluating Interlinked Trajectories of Online Shopping and Work Commute Post-Pandemic

The COVID-19 pandemic has significantly shifted travel behaviors, with major changes observed in online shopping and travel to work. Despite considerable research into pandemic-induced changes in travel behavior, it remains uncertain whether these new patterns have persisted or reverted to pre-pandemic norms. This study addresses this uncertainty by evaluating whether shifts in online shopping and work travel during the pandemic have become permanently ingrained in individuals' daily routine. Leveraging data from the 2022 National Household Travel Survey, a bivariate ordered probit model is employed to analyze changes in online shopping and work travel - whether they have increased, decreased, or remained stable compared to pre-pandemic levels across different population segments. The analysis finds that the pandemic did not significantly alter online shopping for home delivery and travel to work for the majority of society. However, a substantial portion of respondents reported increased online shopping for home delivery and reduced travel to work compared to pre-pandemic levels, with online shopping trends appearing more permanent. Segment-wise analysis and model results indicate heterogeneity in behavioral shifts with females engaging more in online shopping, while zero-vehicle households are traveling less to work, compared to pre-pandemic levels. Additionally, increase in online shopping frequency is significantly and negatively correlated with decrease in traveling to work. These findings highlight the need for improved digital infrastructure, flexible work policies, and integrated transportation solutions tailored to evolving demographic and socioeconomic needs in the post-pandemic era. Additionally, the study calls for integrating passenger and freight movement in a single framework rather than treating them in silos.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Surrogate model evaluation and building energy benchmarking for commercial buildings

Building energy consumption benchmarking involves challenges associated with various energy patterns for different building types; heating, ventilating, and air-conditioning (HVAC) system types; and climates. Given significant variation in energy use patterns, accurate prediction of long-term energy use using surrogate models remains challenging. Multiple linear regression (MLR) is commonly used for building energy benchmarking because of its simple structure; however, it lacks accuracy compared to other black-box models. Although many studies have compared surrogate models and offer guidance on model selection based on metrics, they do not provide detailed analysis on improving the surrogate model accuracy. In this paper, we implement a surrogate model using polynomial ridge regression (i.e., MLR with interaction terms combined with ridge regularization) for small office and retail strip mall buildings across six HVAC system types and all climate zones, for electricity and natural gas in baseline and proposed scenarios. A simulation workflow is developed using OpenStudio TM /EnergyPlus TM to generate simulation data using measures over a wide range of efficiency inputs. Enhancements based on statistical insights are used for improving the model accuracy using filters, input transformations, and change points. Surrogate models achieved average coefficient of variation of the root mean squared error (CVRMSE) values of 2.17, 1.06, 2.05, and 3.26 for proposed electricity, proposed natural gas, baseline electricity, and baseline natural gas, respectively, with enhancements reducing CVRMSE by an average of 14.9% across all combinations. We provide model interpretation via Shapley additive explanations to determine which input variables most influence energy consumption and provide supportive arguments for enhancements.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Physics vs structure: A systematic benchmark of learning strategies for multi-zone building thermal dynamics

Recent advances in physics-informed and data-driven machine learning promise improved thermal models for advanced building control, yet there is limited quantitative evidence on when added physics structure and architectural complexity are beneficial. Here, this work presents a systematic benchmark of five representative system identification methods for modeling multi-zone building thermal dynamics: linear state-space models, multi-layer perceptrons, neural state-space models, neural ordinary differential equations, and physically-consistent neural networks. The methods are evaluated across multiple data regimes and zone coupling strategies. Using a high-fidelity multi-zone commercial building emulator, we examine short-term and long-term prediction accuracy, computational efficiency, and ease of development. Our results reveal critical trade-offs between prediction performance, model complexity, and physical consistency. We demonstrate that decoupled, nonlinear black-box models consistently outperform coupled physics-constrained architectures in both predictive accuracy and out-of-distribution robustness in majority of the test cases for the building type considered in the study. Our findings quantify the cost of complexity in building thermal modeling and provide concrete, actionable, scenario-based guidelines for selecting model classes for control-oriented applications.

Building thermal modeling↗

Mapping heat vulnerability in cities: A tale of two california cities

Extreme heat is a major cause of weather-related deaths in the United States. To address this, a heat vulnerability index (HVI) is crucial for assessing heat risk and identifying vulnerable urban areas and populations, supporting city planning and emergency response. Current HVI studies often use Principal Component Analysis (PCA) on environmental, socioeconomic, and medical data to aggregate vulnerability indicators into a single index. However, these fixed aggregation weights struggle to adapt to different use cases, which may require varying focuses. Moreover, existing tools primarily consider outdoor heat exposure, providing an incomplete picture of actual exposure, as people spend most of their time indoors. Our research introduces an HVI web mapping tool that addresses these gaps in the literature by: (1) allowing flexible weights to adapt to different use cases, and (2) uniquely integrating both outdoor and indoor heat exposure by considering building characteristics for a more comprehensive risk assessment. We demonstrated this tool in two California cities with contrasting climates: Fresno (inland, arid, hot summers) and Oakland (temperate coastal). This HVI mapping tool provides essential decision support for policymakers and stakeholders in both short-term heat mitigation and long-term urban planning for building interventions and infrastructure development.

BES↗

Inundation and Sediment Supply Predict Annual but Not Centennial Carbon Accumulation in Tidal Wetlands Across Land‐Use Types

Despite growing interest in the contributions of tidal wetlands to natural climate solutions, data remain scarce on how land use affects their carbon accumulation rates (CAR). Additionally, environmental factors driving the large observed variability in CAR among sites are poorly understood. To address these knowledge gaps, we measured short-term (∼1 year) and long-term (∼100 years) CAR using feldspar marker horizons, 210 Pb profiles, and surface elevation tables from 39 sites in seven estuaries in Oregon and Washington, USA. Sites varied in wetland type (tidal marsh, tidal swamp, nontidal pasture), land-use history (reference, restored, and disturbed), and salinity (fresh to polyhaline). Across both timescales, CAR was lowest in disturbed pastures and highest in restored marshes, reflecting patterns in sediment accretion rates. Short-term CAR exceeded long-term CAR by approximately 50% on average and was only weakly correlated with long-term CAR, with differences among hydrogeomorphic setting. Short-term CAR was well predicted by summer inundation frequency and relative sediment load, together explaining 60% of variance, whereas long-term CAR was poorly predicted by contemporary environmental conditions. These findings highlight the importance of aligning predictor and response timescales when modeling blue carbon dynamics, and reinforce the climate mitigation potential of tidal wetland restoration.

land use and land cover change↗

DEMOS (Demographic Microsimulator Tool for Longitudinal Synthetic Population) [SWR-25-135] related to NLR SWR-26-076

The Demographic Microsimulator (DEMOS) is an agent-based simulation framework used to model the evolution of population demographic characteristics and lifecycle events, such as education attainment, marital status, and other key transitions. DEMOS modules are designed to capture the interdependencies between short-term and long-term lifecycle events, which are often influential in downstream transportation and land-use modeling. A key feature of DEMOS is its ability to track changes in an agent’s demographic status from year t to year t + 1. This structure allows the model to evolve populations over any user-defined time horizon. As a result, DEMOS is well suited for analyzing medium- and long-term transportation-related decisions, including household vehicle transactions (e.g., purchasing, selling, or replacing vehicles) and work location choices. Core features of DEMOS include the modeling of more than ten lifecycle events, behaviorally realistic patterns informed by long-running panel data, explicit representation of interdependencies among lifecycle processes, and a flexible, modular simulation architecture. A technical memorandum describing DEMOS is available here. The memorandum provides an overview of the framework’s functionality, model structure, input and output data, and its applications in transportation planning and broader policy analysis contexts. Interested readers are also encouraged to consult the paper listed below for additional details on the DEMOS methodology. Sun, Bingrong, Shivam Sharda, Venu M. Garikapati, Mohamed Amine Bouzaghrane, Juan Caicedo, Srinath Ravulaparthy, Isabel Viegas de Lima, Ling Jin, C. Anna Spurlock, and Paul Waddell. "Demographic Microsimulator for Integrated Urban Systems: Adapting Panel Survey of Income Dynamics to Capture the Continuum of Life." Transportation Research Record (2025): 03611981251333339.

Sun, Bingrong [National Laboratory of the Rockies ↗

Kent Island Boundary Layer Field Campaign Report

Understanding the mechanisms governing the urban atmospheric environment is critical for informing urban populations about the impacts of climate change and associated mitigation and adaptation measures. The U.S. Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) User Facility’s Coast-Urban-Rural Atmospheric Gradient Experiment (CoURAGE) was conducted to study the interactions among the earth’s surface, the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL), aerosols, atmospheric composition, clouds, radiation, and precipitation at each experimental site, and to examine how the spatial gradients across the region interact to create the climate conditions in Baltimore. In this activity we performed weekly soundings, alternating between day and night from Kent Island, to get low-frequency, long-term observations of ABL/lower tropospheric thermodynamic structure. However, during the CoURAGE intensive operational period (IOP), we performed high-frequency sampling (2x/day), at times coinciding with CoURAGE IOP soundings at the main site. The short-term, high-frequency sounding information that was launched at 12Z and 18Z was to complement the longer-term data set.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Scientific Discovery with Physics-Informed System Identification (Abbreviated Report)

My fellowship research focused on making physics-based simulations faster and more useful through machine learning. Many problems in science and engineering are governed by partial differential equations, but high-fidelity simulations are often too expensive to run repeatedly. I worked on improving Latent Space Dynamics Identification (LaSDI), a reduced-order modeling framework that compresses large simulation data sets into a smaller representation and then learns how that representation evolves over time. The motivation was to develop reduced models that remain accurate for more challenging systems, especially when predictions must remain reliable over long time intervals or when the underlying dynamics are more complicated than standard methods can easily handle. I also contributed to related work on Quandary, a high-performance software effort for simulation and control of open quantum systems, before focusing primarily on Latent Space Dynamics Identification methods. The main outcomes of the fellowship were two new algorithms (both of which were published), Rollout-LaSDI and Higher-Order LaSDI, together with supporting work on multi-stage Latent Space Dynamics Identification. Rollout-LaSDI improved long-term prediction by training the model to stay accurate over extended time horizons, and Higher-Order LaSDI broadened the method so it could model systems with higher-order time dynamics. My contributions to multistage Latent Space Dynamics Identification also helped show that its later training stages could be simplified without losing effectiveness, and that this behavior held across different model architectures and training strategies. Taken together, these advances improved the accuracy, flexibility, and practical value of reduced-order modeling tools for computational science.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

NASA’s Pandora SmallSat Mission: Simulated Modeling and Retrieval of Near-infrared Exoplanet Transmission Spectra

Pandora is a SmallSat mission dedicated to understanding exoplanets and their host stars by disentangling the impact of stellar heterogeneity on exoplanet transmission spectra. Selected as a NASA Astrophysics Pioneers mission in 2021, Pandora will provide simultaneous long-term visible photometric monitoring (0.4–0.7 μm) and low-resolution near-infrared (NIR) spectroscopy (0.9–1.6 μm) of transiting systems for the purposes of monitoring host star variability and characterizing exoplanetary atmospheres. Pandora’s year-long prime mission from 2026 to 2027 coincides with the middle of a decade defined by targeted efforts for atmospheric characterization of exoplanets, offering a key opportunity to leverage this new resource to maximize science with JWST and other observatories. Here we investigate Pandora’s anticipated performance for the general exoplanet population accessible to transit spectroscopy, from hot Jupiters to temperate sub-Neptunes. By modeling the atmospheres of five test cases broadly consistent with the bulk properties of HD 209458b, HD 189733b, WASP-80 b, HAT-P-18 b, and K2-18 b, we find that Pandora may provide abundance constraints as precise as ∼1.0 dex for main atmospheric absorbers such as H 2 O and CH 4 . Then, we explore the synergies between Pandora and JWST. Our results suggest that targets with JWST data in the NIR can benefit from the addition of Pandora observations and result in more reliable abundance estimates than with JWST data alone. Moreover, Pandora can serve the community by providing precursory observations of targets of interest for JWST atmospheric characterization. We conclude by outlining strategies for the use of Pandora as a standalone observatory and in synergy with JWST.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Bioaerosols as indicators of central Arctic ice nucleating particle sources

The Arctic is warming at a rapid rate, with implications for microbial communities as the ecosystems change. Some microbes and biogenic materials can affect the persistence of long-lived mixed-phase clouds by serving as ice nucleating particles (INPs). The presence of INPs modulates the cloud phase, and long-term measurements are important to elucidate their seasonal sources and to predict future change. The Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) expedition in 2019–2020 provided the first year-long measurements of bioaerosols and INPs in the central Arctic, with 3 d filters for amplicon sequencing and cumulative INP concentrations from −5 to −30 °C. Here, we investigated the INP seasonal cycle and its relation to the seasonal cycle of bacteria and eukaryotes. INPs were greatly elevated and compositionally similar in summer, aligning with a greater prevalence of local bioaerosol sources, but, despite this, a diverse mixture of sources (marine and terrestrial) was present all times. A common broader Arctic INP population is hypothesized for much of the year by comparable coincident data collected in Svalbard and a sensitivity of both the INPs and bioaerosols to large-scale events.

Barry, Kevin R. [Colorado State Univ., Fort Collin↗

Mechanical Properties of Carbon Fiber Reinforced Composites Exposed to Cryogenic Conditions and Space Radiation via Simulation and Testing

As NASA missions extend beyond low Earth orbit, increasing reliance is placed on carbon fiber reinforced polymer (CFRP) composites for spacecraft structures where mass efficiency, durability, and long-term reliability are critical. In service, these materials are subjected to a combination of ultraviolet radiation, vacuum, ionizing radiation, atomic oxygen, and extreme thermal excursions under sustained mechanical loading. Flight systems such as the Boeing Starliner and SpaceX Dragon employ external composite structures that will experience these environments for extended durations. Although prior spaceflight and ground studies have reported limited changes in bulk mechanical properties, the synergistic effects of these environments on composite microstructure, particularly at the fiber matrix interphase, remain insufficiently characterized and represent a potential qualification and reliability risk. This study investigates the effects of short-term cryogenic exposure on a radiation shielding carbon epoxy composite, SC2020, as a ground-based analog for space relevant thermal extremes. The SC2020 material system has previously flown on the International Space Station under the Materials International Space Station Experiment (MISSE) program. Composite specimens were exposed to liquid nitrogen for 6 and 24 hours and evaluated using a multiscale characterization framework that combined ASTM D3039 tensile testing, Atomic Force Microscopy (AFM) based interphase analysis, and helium gas permeability measurements. Tensile testing showed no statistically significant or permanent degradation in global strength or modulus following cryogenic exposure. In contrast, AFM measurements revealed reductions in interphase modulus, weakened adhesion, and increased nanoscale heterogeneity, indicating localized degradation mechanisms not captured by conventional bulk testing. Gas permeability measurements showed a progressive increase in helium diffusion with exposure duration, consistent with micro-void formation or partial interfacial debonding. The results indicate that cryogenic exposure initiates degradation at the fiber matrix interphase while leaving global mechanical properties largely unchanged over short durations. These findings underscore the importance of multiscale diagnostics for identifying early-stage damage mechanisms that may influence long term performance and qualification margins for spaceflight composite structures. The data presented establish a cryogenic baseline for comparison with forthcoming MISSE flight exposure results and support ongoing NASA Established Program to Stimulate Competitive Research (EPSCoR) efforts aimed at improving composite qualification methodologies, risk assessment, and reliability prediction for space environments.

composite reliability↗