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At least 253 records · Page 14

DeFault: DEep‐Learning‐Based FAULT Delineation Using the IBDP Passive Seismic Data at the Decatur CO2 Storage Site

Abstract The carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) framework is an essential component in reducing greenhouse gas emissions, with its success hinging on the comprehensive knowledge of subsurface geology and geomechanics. Passive seismic event relocation and fault detection offer vital insights into subsurface structures and the ability to monitor fluid migration pathways. Accurate identification and localization of seismic events, however, face significant challenges, including the necessity for high‐quality seismic data and advanced computational methods. To address these challenges, we introduce a novel deep learning method, , specifically designed for passive seismic source relocation and fault delineating for passive seismic monitoring projects. By leveraging data domain‐adaptation, allows us to train a neural network with labeled synthetic data and apply it directly to field data. Using , the passive seismic sources are automatically clustered based on their recording time and spatial locations, and subsequently, faults and fractures are delineated accordingly. We demonstrate the efficacy of on a field case study involving injection related microseismic data from Decatur, Illinois area. Our approach accurately and efficiently relocated passive seismic events, identified faults and could aid in potential damage induced by seismicity. Our results highlight the potential of as a valuable tool for passive seismic monitoring, emphasizing its role in ensuring CCUS project safety. This research bolsters the understanding of subsurface characterization in CCUS, illustrating machine learning’s capacity to refine these methods. Ultimately, our work has significant implications for CCUS technology deployment, an essential strategy in combating climate change. Plain Language Summary In our quest to tackle climate change, we use a strategy known as carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) to keep greenhouse gases out of the atmosphere. This strategy relies heavily on our ability to understand what's happening deep under the earth's surface. To make sure we store super critical safely, we need to accurately map out the geological structure, especially faults, but this is tough without high‐quality data and complex computer programs. We've developed a new tool called “DeFault,” which uses advanced machine learning to improve how we find and map these underground features. “DeFault” is smart enough to learn from numerically simulated data and then apply what it’s learned to real‐world situations. It groups together seismic activity—tiny tremors and shifts in the earth—based on when and where they happen, which helps us spot where there might be cracks or faults. We tested “DeFault” in Illinois, where CO 2 is injected underground, and it successfully pinpointed where these tremors occurred and mapped out the faults, helping to prevent accidents accurately in the future. Our study shows that “DeFault” will be a powerful ally in making CCUS safer and more effective, especially for the Illinois Basin Decatur Project. Key Points Faults and fractures introduced by carbon storage can be monitored by passive seismicity DeFault algorithm enables an automatic process for accurate and efficient passive seismic event locating and clustering

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Applying Waveform Correlation and Waveform Template Metadata to Aftershocks in the Middle East to Reduce Analyst Workload

Organizations that monitor for underground nuclear explosive tests are interested in techniques that automatically characterize recurring events such as aftershocks to reduce the human analyst effort required to produce high-quality event bulletins. Waveform correlation is a technique that is effective in finding similar waveforms from repeating seismic events. In this study, we apply waveform correlation in combination with template event metadata to two aftershock sequences in the Middle East to seek corroborating detections from multiple stations in the International Monitoring System of the Preparatory Commission for the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization. We use waveform templates from stations that are within regional distance of aftershock sequences to detect subsequent events, then use template event metadata to discover what stations are likely to record corroborating arrival waveforms for recurring aftershock events at the same location, and develop additional waveform templates to seek corroborating detections. We evaluate the results with the goal of determining whether applying the method to aftershock events will improve the choice of waveform correlation detections that lead to bulletin-worthy events and reduction of analyst effort.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

Particle showers detected on ISS in Timepix pixel detectors

We detect regular particle showers in several compact pixel detectors, distributed over the International Space Station. These showers are caused by high energy galactic cosmic rays, with energies often in the 10 s of TeV or higher. We survey the frequency of these events, their dependence on location on ISS, and their independence of the location of ISS, on its orbit. The Timepix detectors used allow individual particle tracks to be resolved, providing a possibility to perform physical analysis of shower events, which we demonstrate. In terms of radiation dosimetry, these showers indicate certain possible limitations of traditional dosimetric measures, in that (a) the dose measured in small sensor may be less than that received in a larger distribution of matter, such as a human and (b) the spatial and temporal extent of these events represents a regime of poorly documented biological response.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Microphysics, Radiation and Surface Processes in the Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) Model

The response of cloud systems to their environment is an important link in a chain of processes responsible for monsoons, frontal depression, El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) episodes and other climate variations (e.g., 30-60 day intra-seasonal oscillations). Numerical models of cloud properties provide essential insights into the interactions of clouds with each other, with their surroundings, and with land and ocean surfaces. Significant advances are currently being made in the modeling of rainfall and rain-related cloud processes, ranging in scales from the very small up to the simulation of an extensive population of raining cumulus clouds in a tropical- or midlatitude-storm environment. The Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model is a multi-dimensional nonhydrostatic dynamic/microphysical cloud resolving model. It has been used to simulate many different mesoscale convective systems that occurred in various geographic locations. In this paper, recent GCE model improvements (microphysics, radiation and surface processes) will be described as well as their impact on the development of precipitation events from various geographic locations. The performance of these new physical processes will be examined by comparing the model results with observations. In addition, the explicit interactive processes between cloud, radiation and surface processes will be discussed.

Tao, Wei-Kuo↗

EVALUATION OF CONTROLLED END GAS AUTO IGNITION WITH EXHAUST GAS RECIRCULATION IN A STOICHIOMETRIC, SPARK IGNITED, NATURAL GAS ENGINE

Many stationary and heavy-duty on-road natural gas fueled engines today operate under stoichiometric conditions with a three-way catalyst. The disadvantage of stoichiometric natural gas engines compared to lean-burn natural gas and diesel engines is lower efficiency, resulting primarily from lower power density and compression ratio. Exhaust gas recirculation (EGR) coupled with advanced combustion controls can enable operation with higher compression ratio and power density, which yields higher efficiency. This also results in engine operation between the limits of knock and misfire. Operation between these limits has been named controlled end gas auto-ignition (C-EGAI) and can be used to improve the brake efficiency of the engine. Various methods of cylinder pressure-based knock quantification were explored to implement C-EGAI. The indicated quantification methods are used for the implementation of a control scheme for C-EGAI with a relation to the fractional heat release due to auto-ignition. A custom EGR system was built and the effect of EGR on the performance of a stochiometric, spark ignited, natural gas engine is evaluated. C-EGAI is implemented and the optimal parameters are determined for peak performance under EGR and C-EGAI conditions. In this study, knock detection is used for the recognition, magnitude, and location of the auto-ignition events. Cylinder pressure-based knock detection was the primary method for determining the occurrence and location of knock but was also used for implementing the ignition control scheme for controlled end gas auto-ignition. The combustion intensity metric (CIM) enabled parametric ignition timing control which allowed for the creation of a relationship between fractional heat release due to auto-ignition and CIM. Many stationary and heavy-duty on-road natural gas fueled engines today operate under stoichiometric conditions with a three-way catalyst. The disadvantage of stoichiometric natural gas engines compared to lean-burn natural gas and diesel engines is lower efficiency, resulting primarily from lower power density and compression ratio. Exhaust gas recirculation (EGR) coupled with advanced combustion controls can enable operation with higher compression ratio and power density, which yields higher efficiency. This also results in engine operation between the limits of knock and misfire. Operation between these limits has been named controlled end gas auto-ignition (C-EGAI) and can be used to improve the brake efficiency of the engine. Various methods of cylinder pressure-based knock quantification were explored to implement C-EGAI. The indicated quantification methods are used for the implementation of a control scheme for C-EGAI with a relation to the fractional heat release due to auto-ignition. A custom EGR system was built and the effect of EGR on the performance of a stochiometric, spark ignited, natural gas engine is evaluated. C-EGAI is implemented and the optimal parameters are determined for peak performance under EGR and C-EGAI conditions. In this study, knock detection is used for the recognition, magnitude, and location of the auto-ignition events. Cylinder pressure-based knock detection was the primary method for determining the occurrence and location of knock but was also used for implementing the ignition control scheme for controlled end gas auto-ignition. The combustion intensity metric (CIM) enabled parametric ignition timing control which allowed for the creation of a relationship between fractional heat release due to auto-ignition and CIM. Both exhaust gas recirculation and controlled end gas auto-ignition were analyzed with a cooperative fuel research (CFR) engine modified for boosted fuel/air intake. The data was interpreted to provide a proper evaluation of unique analytical methods to quantify the results of C_EGAI and characterize the live auto-ignition events. The control variables for this method of C-EGAI were optimized with EGR conditions to generate the point of peak performance on the CFR engine under stoichiometric, spark ignited, natural gas conditions.

Bayliff, Scott Michael↗

Advances in geophysical forensic event monitoring

Forensic analysis of man-made, non-nuclear events (such as industrial accidents, explosion experiments and mine collapses) has become more frequent and detailed owing to advancements in geophysical monitoring. Here, in this Technical Review, we demonstrate how geophysical forensic monitoring using seismic, infrasound and hydroacoustic recordings provides insights on events in the solid earth, atmosphere and underwater. Advanced techniques, including machine-learning-based models, have been developed to detect, identify and investigate these events, providing information on location, subevents, sources and explosive yield. The increase in data availability, application of advanced methods and computation and the growth of multitechnology approaches have increased the accuracy of forensic event analysis and enabled more realistic characterization of uncertainties. For example, the 2020 Beirut explosion in Lebanon demonstrated that various seismic, acoustic and other methods could be used to estimate explosive yield (and yield uncertainties) of about 1 ktonne, providing confidence in the application of these methods to smaller events where data are available. However, forensic investigations remain largely limited to known events with identified sources. Increased access to data, sophisticated analysis methods and high-resolution earth models will improve forensic event analysis further, enabling civil and scientific applications, such as localization in the search for the lost ARA San Juan submarine.

geophysics↗

Analysis of a tau neutrino origin for the near-horizon air shower events observed by the fourth flight of the Antarctic Impulsive Transient Antenna

In this work, we study in detail the sensitivity of the Antarctic Impulsive Transient Antenna (ANITA) to possible ν τ point source fluxes detected via τ-lepton-induced air showers. This investigation is framed around the observation of four upward-going extensive air shower events very close to the horizon seen in ANITA-IV. We find that these four upgoing events are not observationally inconsistent with τ-induced EASs from Earth-skimming ν τ both in their spectral properties as well as in their observed locations on the sky. These four events as well as the overall diffuse and point source exposure to Earth-skimming ν τ are also compared against published ultrahigh-energy neutrino limits from the Pierre Auger Observatory. While none of these four events occurred at sky locations simultaneously visible by Auger, the implied fluence necessary for ANITA to observe these events is in strong tension with limits set by Auger across a wide range of energies and is additionally in tension with ANITA’s Askaryan in-ice neutrino channel above 10 19 eV. We conclude by discussing some of the technical challenges with simulating and analyzing these near horizon events and the potential for future observatories to observe similar events.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

A test of magnetic field draping induced Bz perturbations ahead of fast coronal mass ejecta

ICE plasma and magnetic field data are examined to look for observational evidence of IMF draping ahead of fast coronal mass ejections (CMEs). The utility of the draping model for predicting the Bz perturbations and hence geomagnetic activity associated with the sheath regions ahead of such CMEs is also examined. A simple prediction scheme based on the upstream radial field component is developed and a set of interplanetary shock events previously associated with interplanetary type II bursts, and hence solar source locations, is used. Of 17 events the radial component predictor developed here correctly predicts the direction considered of the Bz perturbations for 13 events (76 percent). While this result is certainly not conclusive, it is considered to be supportive of the draping scenario.

Mccomas, D. J.↗

Data-driven Event Identification in the U.S. Power Systems Based on 2D-OLPP and RUSBoosting Trees

Accurate event identification is an essential part of situation awareness ability for power system operators. Therefore, this work proposes an integrated event identification algorithm for power systems. First, to obtain and filter suitable inputs for event identification, an event detection trigger based on the rate of change of frequency (RoCoF) is presented. Then, the wave arrival time difference-based triangulation method considering the anisotropy of wave propagation speed is utilized to estimate the location of the detected event. Next, the two-dimensional orthogonal locality preserving projection (2D-OLPP)-based method, which is suitable for multiple types of measured data, is employed to achieve higher effectiveness in extracting the event features compared with traditional one-dimensional projection and principle component analysis (PCA). Finally, the random undersampling boosted (RUSBoosted) trees-based classifier, which can mitigate the data sample imbalance issue, is utilized to identify the type of the detected event. Furthermore, the proposed approach is demonstrated using the actual measurement data of U.S. power systems from FNET/GridEye. Comparison results show that the proposed event identification algorithm can achieve better performance than existing approaches.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Imaging with INTEGRAL

The INTEGRAL mission was proposed in response to the ESA M2 call for proposals and is dedicated to the fine spectroscopy and imaging of celestial gamma-ray sources in the energy range 15 keV to 10 MeV. Cosmic gamma-rays are emitted on a wide range of angular scales and structures for a diverse population of astronomical objects. The emission, which includes discrete spectral lines and continuum radiation is derived from point sources, localized regions, as well as a diffuse band along the Galactic plane. Much of the gamma-ray sky is composed from transient phenomena which range from the few second timescale associated with gamma-ray bursts to larger lived events lasting some days or more. These class of events pose the challenge of firstly identification and secondly that of precise positional location of 'random' short lived events which arrive isotropically. In this article the imaging requirements are evaluated in light of current observational astronomical data and practical solutions for the INTEGRAL telescope are discussed. Some of the key problems are highlighted.

Dean, A. J.↗

Stratospheric Assimilation of Chemical Tracer Observations Using a Kalman Filter: Chi-Square Validated Results and Analysis of Variance and Correlation Dynamics - Pt. 2

A Kalman filter system designed for the assimilation of limb-sounding observations of stratospheric chemical tracers, which has four tunable covariance parameters, was developed in Part I (Menard et al. 1998) The assimilation results of CH4 observations from the Cryogenic Limb Array Etalon Sounder instrument (CLAES) and the Halogen Observation Experiment instrument (HALOE) on board of the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite are described in this paper. A robust (chi)(sup 2) criterion, which provides a statistical validation of the forecast and observational error covariances, was used to estimate the tunable variance parameters of the system. In particular, an estimate of the model error variance was obtained. The effect of model error on the forecast error variance became critical after only three days of assimilation of CLAES observations, although it took 14 days of forecast to double the initial error variance. We further found that the model error due to numerical discretization as arising in the standard Kalman filter algorithm, is comparable in size to the physical model error due to wind and transport modeling errors together. Separate assimilations of CLAES and HALOE observations were compared to validate the state estimate away from the observed locations. A wave-breaking event that took place several thousands of kilometers away from the HALOE observation locations was well captured by the Kalman filter due to highly anisotropic forecast error correlations. The forecast error correlation in the assimilation of the CLAES observations was found to have a structure similar to that in pure forecast mode except for smaller length scales. Finally, we have conducted an analysis of the variance and correlation dynamics to determine their relative importance in chemical tracer assimilation problems. Results show that the optimality of a tracer assimilation system depends, for the most part, on having flow-dependent error correlation rather than on evolving the error variance.

Menard, Richard↗

Flood and Landslide Applications of High Time Resolution Satellite Rain Products

Experimental, potentially real-time systems to detect floods and landslides related to heavy rain events are described. A key basis for these applications is high time resolution satellite rainfall analyses. Rainfall is the primary cause for devastating floods across the world. However, in many countries, satellite-based precipitation estimation may be the best source of rainfall data due to insufficient ground networks and absence of data sharing along many trans-boundary river basins. Remotely sensed precipitation from the NASA's TRMM Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) operational system (near real-time precipitation at a spatial-temporal resolution of 3 hours and 0.25deg x 0.25deg) is used to monitor extreme precipitation events. Then these data are ingested into a macro-scale hydrological model which is parameterized using spatially distributed elevation, soil and land cover datasets available globally from satellite remote sensing. Preliminary flood results appear reasonable in terms of location and frequency of events, with implementation on a quasi-global basis underway. With the availability of satellite rainfall analyses at fine time resolution, it has also become possible to assess landslide risk on a near-global basis. Early results show that landslide occurrence is closely associated with the spatial patterns and temporal distribution of TRMM rainfall characteristics. Particularly, the number of landslides triggered by rainfall is related to rainfall climatology, antecedent rainfall accumulation, and intensity-duration of rainstorms. For the purpose of prediction, an empirical TMPA-based rainfall intensity-duration threshold is developed and shown to have skill in determining potential areas of landslides. These experimental findings, in combination with landslide surface susceptibility information based on satellite-based land surface information, form a starting point towards a potential operational landslide monitoring/warning system around the globe.

Adler, Robert F.↗

Plasma waves in the magnetotail of Uranus

Plasma wave phenomena observed during the Voyager 2 passing through the magnetotail of Uranus after its encounter with the planet on January 24, 1986 are described. The location of the wave events, their probable mode of propagation, and their association with various plasma and charged particle observations are presented. It was found that the most remarkable magnetotail plasma waves were inside the distance of about 23 Uranus radii, with an additional event occurring between about 48 and 56 Uranus radii. The frequency of these magnetotail plasma waves was found to be below about 100 Hz, extending down to the 10-Hz lower frequency limit of the receiver. The shape of the spectrum and the location of the wave activity near the boundary layer suggest that these waves may be similar to broadband electrostatic waves observed in similar regions of the earth's magnetotail.

Kurth, W. S.↗

Review of the November 11, 1905 Earthquake: Seismic Intensity Data, Magnitude, and Location Report

The macroseismic location and magnitude of the Shoshone 1905 earthquake has been based on the application of objective and quantitative approaches that produce estimates of earthquake source location and magnitude, and associated uncertainties. The performance of all three approaches applied depends critically on the characteristics of the seismic intensity field. Regional intensity attenuation relations were derived based on a calibration set of earthquakes and then, the procedure was validated using three independent very recent events. The macroseismic epicenter location was determined by either a grid search procedure, the spatial distribution of the sites experiencing the largest intensities, or a combination of both. The macroseismic magnitude estimates are based on the derived regional intensity attenuation relations. There is consistency in the location and magnitude of the November 1905 earthquake as obtained by the three methods. The overlapping region of the 68% bootstrap resampling solutions suggests a reliable epicenter location within 41.550N ? 42.060N and 113.478W ? 112.320W. This region encloses the original Oaks (1992) epicenter location. Macroseismic magnitude estimates range between 5.87 and 6.05.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Near-Real-Time Detection and Monitoring of Dust Events by Satellite (SeaWIFS, MODIS, and TOMS)

Over the last few years satellites have given us increasingly detailed information on the size, location, and duration of dust events around the world. These data not only provide valuable feedback to the modelling community as to the fidelity of their aerosol models but are also finding increasing use in near real-time applications. In particular, the ability to locate and track the development of aerosol dust clouds on a near real-time basis is being used by scientists and government to provide warning of air pollution episodes over major urban area. This ability has also become a crucial component of recent coordinated campaigns to study the characteristics of tropospheric aerosols such as dust and their effect on climate. One such recent campaign was ACE-Asia, which was designed to obtain the comprehensive set of ground, aircraft, and satellite data necessary to provide a detailed understanding of atmospheric aerosol particles over the Asian-Pacific region. As part of ACE-Asia, we developed a near real-time data processing and access system to provide satellite data from the polar-orbiting instruments Earth Probe TOMS (in the form of absorbing aerosol index) and SeaWiFS (in the form of aerosol optical thickness, AOT, and Angstrom exponent). The results were available via web access. The location and movement information provided by these data were used both in support of the day-to-day flight planning of ACE-Asia and as input into aerosol transport models. While near real-time SeaWiFS data processing can be performed using either the normal global data product or data obtained via direct broadcast to receiving stations close to the area of interest, near real-time MODIS processing of data to provide aerosol retrievals is currently only available using its direct broadcast capability. In this paper, we will briefly discuss the algorithms used to generate these data. The retrieved aerosol optical thickness and Angstrom exponent from SeaWiFS will be compared with those obtained from various AERONET sites over the Asian-Pacific region. The TOMS aerosol index will also be compared with AERONET aerosol optical thickness over different aerosol conditions, and comparisons between the MODIS and SeaWiFS data will also be presented. Finally, we will discuss the climate implication of our studies using the combined satellite and AERONET observations.

Hsu, N. Christina↗

Diurnal ocean surface layer model validation

The diurnal ocean surface layer (DOSL) model at the Fleet Numerical Oceanography Center forecasts the 24-hour change in a global sea surface temperatures (SST). Validating the DOSL model is a difficult task due to the huge areas involved and the lack of in situ measurements. Therefore, this report details the use of satellite infrared multichannel SST imagery to provide day and night SSTs that can be directly compared to DOSL products. This water-vapor-corrected imagery has the advantages of high thermal sensitivity (0.12 C), large synoptic coverage (nearly 3000 km across), and high spatial resolution that enables diurnal heating events to be readily located and mapped. Several case studies in the subtropical North Atlantic readily show that DOSL results during extreme heating periods agree very well with satellite-imagery-derived values in terms of the pattern of diurnal warming. The low wind and cloud-free conditions necessary for these events to occur lend themselves well to observation via infrared imagery. Thus, the normally cloud-limited aspects of satellite imagery do not come into play for these particular environmental conditions. The fact that the DOSL model does well in extreme events is beneficial from the standpoint that these cases can be associated with the destruction of the surface acoustic duct. This so-called afternoon effect happens as the afternoon warming of the mixed layer disrupts the sound channel and the propagation of acoustic energy.

Hawkins, Jeffrey D.↗

A Novel Machine Learning Workflow to Classify Mobile Home Parks at Scale

Understanding the built environment is essential to the overall study of population dynamics, grid infrastructure, emergency response, among others. In the United States there are multiple classifications for buildings within the built environment such as residential, signifying family homes while commercial buildings consist of apartments or larger structures which are multi-purpose. While there is a high level of understanding of where these aforementioned structures are located, there is a third class of structures, mobile home parks (MHP) which have been under-represented in the literature despite there being an estimated 2.7 million of them within the United States. Research has shown that individuals who reside in MHP are at higher risk to extreme events due to their location and structural integrity of residence. Attention must now turn to identifying MHP at scale to help first responders and policy makers understand where these at risk populations reside. To address for this gap, we develop a novel methodology to infer MHP at scale based off morphologies derived at a building level. Here, we show that across 3 million buildings in 6 states within the United States it is possible to identify MHP with 83% accuracy. This novel approach to identify MHP from other structures within the built environment using a machine learning approach provides a new tool to leverage in relation to helping at-risk populations.

Stipek, Clinton [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (OR↗

An improved daily standardized precipitation index dataset for mainland China from 1961 to 2018

The standardized precipitation index (SPI), one of the most commonly used drought indicators, is widely used in the research areas of drought analysis and drought prediction in different fields such as meteorology, agriculture, and hydrology. However, its main disadvantage is the relatively coarse time resolution of one month. To improve the time resolution of SPI to identify flash droughts, we have refined the traditional SPI calculation method and developed a new multi-scale daily SPI dataset based on data from 484 meteorological stations in mainland China from 1961 to 2018. SPI data from three different sites (located in Henan, Yunnan, and Fujian Provinces) at the three-month timescale were analyzed by comparing with historically recorded drought events. We found that the new multi-scale daily SPI can effectively capture drought events in different periods and locations and identify the specific start and end times of drought events. In short, our SPI dataset appears reasonable and capable of facilitating drought research in different fields.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗