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Calibration parameters are developed for melt, shear modulus, and flow stress models for cerium subjected to dynamic loading. Parametric calibration is developed for the Lindemann melt law and for the shear modulus and flow stress models of Steinberg, Cochran, and Guinan.
Abstract. Floating wind turbines must withstand a unique and challenging set of loads from the wind and ocean environment. To de-risk development, accurate predictions of these loads are necessary. Uncertainty in modeling predictions leads to larger required safety factors, increasing project costs and the levelized cost of energy. Complex aero-hydro-elastic modeling tools use many input parameters to represent the wind, waves, current, aerodynamic loads, hydrodynamic loads, and structural properties. It is helpful to understand which of these parameters ultimately drives a design. In this work, an ultimate and fatigue-proxy load sensitivity analysis was performed with 35 different input parameters, using an elementary effects approach to identify the most influential parameters for a case study involving the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) 5 MW baseline wind turbine atop the OC4-DeepCwind semisubmersible during normal operation. The importance of each parameter was evaluated using 14 response quantities of interest across three operational wind speed conditions. The study concludes that turbulent wind velocity standard deviation is the parameter with the strongest sensitivity; this value is important not just for turbine loads, but also for the global system response. The system center of mass in the wind direction is found to have the highest impact on the system rotation and tower loads. The current velocity is found to be the most dominating parameter for the system global motion and consequently the mooring loads. All tested wind turbulence parameters in addition to the standard deviation are also found to be influential. Wave characteristics are influential for some fatigue-proxy loading but do not significantly impact the extreme ultimate loads in these operational load cases. The required number of random seeds for stochastic environmental conditions is considered to ensure that the sensitivities are due to the input parameters and not due to the seed. The required number of analysis points in the parameter space is identified so that the conclusions represent a global sensitivity. The results are specific to the platform, turbine, and choice of parameter ranges, but the demonstrated approach can be applied widely to guide focus in parameter uncertainty.
Airfield matting systems are commonly used for rapid repair of damaged runways to facilitate continuity of critical operations. Under normal service conditions, matting repair systems are subject not only to wheel loads exerted by airfield traffic but also to aerodynamic pressure loads resulting from high-speed, turbulent exhaust plumes produced by jets during taxi and take-off. Matting systems employed by the U.S. Air Force have been tested with respect to wheel loads, but probabilities of failure because of pressure loads produced by jet exhaust have not yet been established. This study presents a numerical approach for preliminary estimation of worst-case matting anchor forces resulting from exhaust-generated pressure loads. Using a two-dimensional computational fluid dynamics model, system behavior is evaluated by means of a parametric study of six system variables, of which the most significant are: (1) distance between engine and matting, (2) depth of cavity openings at matting edges, and (3) engine exhaust velocity. The results demonstrate that matting systems are likely to experience net uplift in typical service scenarios, driven by the combined effects of flow separation and cavity pressurization. Worst-case anchor pull-out forces, computed according to a tributary-area approach, are estimated to fall in the range of 130 lb (581 N) to 979 lb (4,350 N), depending on assumed load-sharing behavior among anchors and the size of the repair site. Field testing of instrumented matting systems during jet taxi and take-off sequences is recommended as the best next step toward understanding system behavior.
This article presents an investigation on the ductility of Mg/SiCp under nine different multiaxial loading conditions based on a unit cell (or called representative volumetric element, RVE) finite element model. The constitutive relationship of magnesium matrix is characterized by a model combined Lode angle dependent plasticity model with the CPB06 plasticity model, which is able to describe the tension-compression asymmetry in magnesium matrix. The debonding of the matrix-particle interface and matrix fracture are considered by the modified Mohr-Coulomb (MMC) fracture model. Simulation results show that the interface debonding and subsequent matrix fracture are responsible for the ductility and fracture of nanocomposite. The computational results with parametric studies are compared and well correlated with experimental data, and it finally gives a stress-based full fracture locus of Mg/SiCp nanocomposite.
Novel power system control and new utility devices need to be tested before their actual deployment to the power grid. To assist with such a testing need, real-time digital emulators such as RTDS and Opal-RT can be used to connect to the physical world and form a hardware in the loop (HIL) emulation. However, due to the limitations of today's computational resources, the accuracy and fidelity suffer from different levels of model reductions in purely digital simulations. CURENT has developed a reconfigurable electric grid hardware testbed (HTB) to overcome the limitations of digital emulators. The HTB has been used to develop measurement, control, modeling, and actuation techniques for a national grid with a high penetration of renewables. The power electronic-based system includes emulators for synchronous generators; photovoltaics with grid-interfacing inverter; wind turbines; induction motor loads, ZIP loads, power electronic loads; batteries; ac and dc transmission lines; short circuit faults and grid relay protection; and a multiterminal HVDC overlay including power electronics interfaces. The system contains real elements of power flow, measurement, communication, protection, and control that mimic what would be seen in an actual electric grid. This paper presents an overview of the HTB and several scenarios that have been run to determine control and actions needed for the future power grid.
This data was used to assess the potential for improving water quality in this watershed when integrating miscanthus, a bioenergy perennial grass, on to areas of low profit under current corn-soybean management and areas of high nitrogen leaching under both current and future climate conditions. This dataset includes all observations (yield, streamflow, nitrogen loads) and model simulation data used from Dr. Kelsie Ferin’s (former PhD student with Dr. Andy VanLoocke, ISU Dept. of Agronomy) dissertation and publication in Global Change Biology – Bioenergy (DOI: 10.1111/gcbb.13078). Modeled output included in this dataset includes corn, soybean, and miscanthus yields, nitrogen leaching rates, net mineralization rates, land use cover fractions with and without the inclusion of miscanthus, profitability maps, additional soil property maps, and simulated streamflow and nitrogen loads near the outlet of the Raccoon River Basin (Van Meter, Iowa) for both historical and future climate conditions. This dataset includes a mixture of netCDF, .tiff, .csv, and .xlsx files. See README.pdf for more information.
Developing a computationally efficient but accurate building energy simulation (BES) model is important for many purposes. Model order reduction (MOR) methods are attractive and much more reliable than identification approaches, since it directly extract a lower-dimensional model from a detailed physics-based model without any pre-simulations. However, because of computational and data storage requirements, there are challenges of applying these methods to a large-scale building. To overcome the problem, this work introduces the Krylov subspace method to the building science field. Technical issues of applying the method to building applications are addressed and a suitable algorithm that overcomes those challenges is presented. Furthermore, to demonstrate the reliability of the algorithm, comparisons between the resulted reduced-order model (ROM) and a high-fidelity model from a commercial BES software for a 60-zone case study building are provided. The ROM was a factor of 100 faster than the high fidelity model but with high accuracy.
A computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model was built to simulate planned testing of heater assemblies within a canister and overpack for the Hanford Lead Canister (HLC) project. The HLC is a canister storage system that will contain heaters to simulate the decay heat of nuclear material and provide the canister storage system with environmental conditions equivalent to the operating conditions on a dry storage pad. The HLC will be equipped with long-term data collection and monitoring systems to provide an early warning of corrosion, pitting, cracking, or other signs of canister degradation that might threaten the integrity of the containment boundary over the potentially long term of dry storage. An important part of the HLC development is to make pretest numerical predictions for the behavior of the heated canister during the simulated radiolytic decay heat testing, which simulates the dry storage system during loading operations. The simulated radiolytic decay heat test is planned for mid-2024 in a configuration that includes the heater assembly, overpack, and canister, but with the lids removed to allow loading cesium and strontium capsules into the canister. One of the goals of the test is to evaluate the thermal behavior of the canister and overpack assembly in the ambient air of the test facility, which will provide data critical to validating the thermal models and understanding how the HLC will perform as a system once deployed. To best approximate real-world conditions, the CFD model includes the full air volume of the mock-up truck bay the heated canister test will be performed in, enabling detailed investigation of how the heated canister affects airflow around it. Rigorous pre-deployment testing of the complete HLC cask and canister system is intended to be completed before the HLC is deployed in the 2028 timeframe. This study presents the pre-test temperature predictions of the simulated radiolytic decay heat test. A description of the heater assembly, canister, and overpack system is presented. The model was developed with the commercial CFD software STAR-CCM+. An uncertainty analysis was run with the CFD model to determine the uncertainty in the temperature predictions and provide a range over which the predicted temperatures are expected to vary. The uncertainty analysis was preformed by coupling STAR-CCM+ with the software Dakota, which provides advanced parametric analyses, including quantification of margins and uncertainty with computational models. This work is expected to provide insight into SNF canister behavior.
Aggregation of heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) loads can provide reserves to absorb volatile renewable energy, especially solar photo-voltaic (PV) generation. In this paper, we decide HVAC control schedules under uncertain PV generation, using a distributionally robust chance-constrained (DRCC) building load control model under two typical ambiguity sets: the moment-based and Wasserstein ambiguity sets. We derive mixed integer linear programming (MILP) reformulations for DRCC problems under both sets. Especially, for the Wasserstein ambiguity set, we use the right-hand side (RHS) uncertainty to derive a more compact MILP reformulation than the commonly known MILP reformulations with big-M constants. All the results also apply to general individual chance constraints with RHS uncertainty. Furthermore, we propose an adjustable chance-constrained variant to achieve tradeoff between the operational risk and costs. We derive MILP reformulations under the Wasserstein ambiguity set and second-order conic programming (SOCP) reformulations under the moment-based set. Using real-world data, we conduct computational studies to demonstrate the efficiency of the solution approaches and the effectiveness of the solutions. Summary of Contribution: The problem studied in this paper is motivated by a building load control problem that uses the aggregation of heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) loads as flexible reserves to absorb uncertain solar photovoltaic (PV) generation. The problem is formulated as distributionally robust chance-constrained (DRCC) programs with right-hand side (RHS) uncertainty. In addition, we propose a risk-adjustable variant of the DRCC programs, where the risk level, instead of being predetermined, is treated as a decision variable. The paper aims to provide tractable reformulations and solution algorithms for both the (general) DRCC and the (general) adjustable DRCC models with RHS uncertainty.
This report documents an initial evaluation to support future use of disposal control rod assemblies (DCRAs) for post-closure criticality control in dual purpose canisters (DPCs). The work described herein is an extension of previous efforts performed by Walker using inputs generated by the Used Nuclear Fuel-Storage, Transportation & Disposal Analysis Resource and Data System (UNFST&DARDS) for the Zion site DPCs with as-loaded isotopic compositions. The results of this analysis demonstrate that there are multiple pathways to using DCRA for post-closure criticality control. Various configurations of DCRA material, diameter, number of rods per DCRA, and number and location of DCRAs within a DPC were shown to be effective in varying degrees for the set of DPCs analyzed by Walker. Because of the variations in DPC as-loaded isotopic compositions considered in an array of DCRA parametric sweeps, it can be concluded that a DPC-specific methodology is feasible (i.e., a one-size-fits-all approach may not be needed). Instead, the utility program created for this work can be expanded to develop capabilities to provide DPC-specific DCRA arrangements to limit cost and weight and to allow for operational considerations.
The TRUST testbed was designed and fabricated to conduct vibration testing and validate the behavior of hyper-elastic foams in a pre-loaded condition. The main goals of this testbed design were to ensure symmetry, proper instrumentation alignment and mounting, simplified geometry to make the data analysis validation process more straightforward, and to apply and monitor the applied pre-load. Based off of the test parameters, a shaker system was purchased. The baseplate was designed to mount directly to the bolt holes provided on the top of the shaker table. It was determined that the specimens will be cylindrical and vary in thickness from 2-10mm. The baseplate riser, center-mass, and testbed cap were designed to be cylindrical to make alignment about the center axis more straightforward. It was determined to fabricate the parts previously mentioned using Aluminum 6061-T6 due to its stiffness in order to reduce the likelihood of the stiff material impacting the data being collected for the foam specimens. The design concept used to apply the pre-load to the testbed was a through bolt/nut configuration. A through hole was included in each piece of the testbed, specimens, and instrumentation large enough to allow for 1/8” clearance between the through bolt and each of these pieces. This was imperative to avoid causing friction and complicating the validation model. A load cell was then purchased and used to measure the pre-load being applied to the testbed. It was also required to collect data for 3 axes at 3 different locations 120° apart on the center-mass. This configuration was required to be placed on the cylindrical face and toward the top and bottom of the center-mass. Slots were milled out in the middle of each sensor block with tight tolerances for mounting each of the accelerometers at 120° apart. This same approach was taken to mount 2 accelerometers on the baseplate at 180° apart. Holes were milled out of the corners of each accelerometer mounting slot to relieve the corner and allow for a flat edge at the back of each slot. Sensor blocks were mounted into the center-mass using 6-32 bolts at the required locations. This initial testbed design was fabricated at the TA53 machine shop.
Building energy models are used to simulate heat and mass transfer and estimate end-use load in buildings. With the proliferation of solar photovoltaics on residential and commercial buildings, increasingly, buildings are expected to provide grid services, for which accurate and computationally efficient building energy simulations and end-use load prediction are imperative. Existing building energy simulation tools, however, have significant computational overhead that make them less practical in real-time deployment for optimization, design, uncertainty quantification and control in building energy management systems. Here this article presents a data-driven machine learning model based on light gradient boosting method (LightGBM) as a surrogate for a physics-based simulator for residential buildings to predict end-use load. The machine learning based surrogate model accounts for time-series related variables, seasonality and trend component of end-use load, and history of end-use load. The accuracy of the surrogate model is assessed on the prediction of the load profiles of 100 different houses in Cook County, Illinois, USA. The LightGBM surrogate model is shown to reduce the root-mean-squared error by 53% relative to a reference decision tree (DT) based model reported previously in the literature. Moreover, the model predicts the load spikes and high-ramp rate events throughout the year which are often the Achilles heel of other models in the literature. The machine learning based surrogate model is demonstrated to be computationally efficient, with a ten-fold reduction in the computational time compared to a physics-based building energy simulation, and suitable for uncertainty analysis and real-time control of building characteristics in response to uncertainty.
This article proposes a hybrid machine learning method for the reliability evaluation of integrated power-gas systems (IPGS) under the uncertain component failure probability distributions. The Random Forest (RF) method is designed to select important features to solve the insufficient quantity of data and the curse of dimensionality problems. The Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) regression algorithm is developed to quantify the relationship between the uncertain parameters and reliability metrics. Moreover, a ten-fold cross-validation method is employed to further improve the accuracy of the regression model. Simulation results on three test systems show that the proposed method can achieve high accuracy for the reliability evaluation.
To advance the control co-design of offshore wind energy systems, the authors perform basin-scale experiments with a fully instrumented and actuated floating offshore wind turbine model. The model consists of a 1:70 scale performance-matched model of the International Energy Agency Wind Technology Collaboration Programme 15-MW reference turbine atop the VolturnUS-S semisubmersible platform. The Reference OpenSource Controller provides real-time blade pitch and generator torque control. Here we aim to develop an open data set for the validation of numerical models in predicting the influence of turbine control and load-mitigation measures. For this purpose, we measure the effects of advanced turbine control features, including peak shaving and floating feedback as well as hull-based control using tuned mass dampers on the system. Overall, the results demonstrate measurable and consistent influences from the control and load-mitigation measures, thus confirming the usefulness as a validation data set. Peak shaving attenuates the response to wind turbulence at near-rated wind speed. Floating feedback reduces the load and platform pitch motion associated with the negative damping induced by blade pitch control. The tuned mass dampers also attenuate the system response near the targeted frequencies under suitable conditions. We also identify detrimental side effects of each load-mitigation measure.
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Risk assessment of rare events has become increasingly important in power system planning and operation with the increasing integration of renewable energy and the presence of system uncertainties. However, quantifying the risk posed by rare events via the traditional method, i.e., Monte Carlo sampling (MCS), incurs substantial computational expense stemming from the vast ensemble of power flow simulations. To accelerate the assessment, this paper proposes a Deep Neural Network (DNN)-kernelized vector-valued Gaussian Process (VVGP) approach with excellent computational efficiency while maintaining high accuracy. Consequently, serving as a surrogate model for the power flow solver, the DNN-kernelized VVGP enables significantly faster but accurate risk assessment compared to the power flow solver. The developed surrogate model evaluates low-order N - k events that contain more than 90% instances by adeptly capturing the topological features while the high-order N - k events are assessed via a power flow solver, thereby striking a balance between computational efficiency and uncertainty quantification accuracy. Moreover, the model incorporates a Support Vector Machine (SVM) classifier to resample concerning low-probability tail events to counteract the biases potentially introduced during the DNN-kernelized VVGP evaluations. Simulations conducted on the modified IEEE 24-bus, 118-bus, and European 1354-bus systems demonstrate that the proposed method maintains the accuracy benchmark set by MCS while significantly reducing computational demands in large-scale power systems as compared to other state-of-the-art methods.
Climate and population change are known to influence electricity demand, but what is the impact of uncertainty in climate and population projections on electricity demand in the United States (U.S.) over the next 30 years? This question has important implications for investment decisions in the energy sector, which are typically made using a 15- to 30-year time horizon. Simply put, if future climate and population scenarios do not lead to meteorological conditions and subsequent energy demands that are distinctly different within the first 30 years then, for the purposes of investment decisions, it may not matter which potential pathway we are most likely on. The Integrated, Multisector, Multiscale Modeling (IM3) project has generated a wide, yet plausible range of 21st century high-resolution climate and population scenarios for the U.S. The IM3 projections span two climate scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 and 8.5) and two population scenarios (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 3 and 5). For each of the climate scenarios, we reflect a range of climate model uncertainty by using boundary conditions from a set of climate models that are hotter and colder than the multi-model mean. In total there are eight (2 x 2 x 2) IM3 scenarios. This work explores a basic question: When do future climate and energy outcomes start to meaningfully diverge across the eight scenarios? The analysis is done on both the raw meteorology time-series from each scenario as well as a time-series of projected total electricity demand generated using IM3's Total ELectricity Loads (TELL) model. We also explore the spatial heterogeneity of the divergence signal to identify regions of the country that may be more or less path dependent.
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