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NASA NTRS2010

Irrigation Induced Surface Cooling in the Context of Modern and Increased Greenhouse Gas Forcing

There is evidence that expected warming trends from increased greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing have been locally masked by irrigation induced cooling, and it is uncertain how the magnitude of this irrigation masking effect will change in the future. Using an irrigation dataset integrated into a global general circulation model, we investigate the equilibrium magnitude of irrigation induced cooling under modern (Year 2000) and increased (A1B Scenario, Year 2050) GHG forcing, using modern irrigation rates in both scenarios. For the modern scenario, the cooling is largest over North America, India, the Middle East, and East Asia. Under increased GHG forcing, this cooling effect largely disappears over North America, remains relatively unchanged over India, and intensifies over parts of China and the Middle East. For North America, irrigation significantly increases precipitation under modern GHG forcing; this precipitation enhancement largely disappears under A1B forcing, reducing total latent heat fluxes and the overall irrigation cooling effect. Over India, irrigation rates are high enough to keep pace with increased evaporative demand from the increased GHG forcing and the magnitude of the cooling is maintained. Over China, GHG forcing reduces precipitation and shifts the region to a drier evaporative regime, leading to a relatively increased impact of additional water from irrigation on the surface energy balance. Irrigation enhances precipitation in the Middle East under increased GHG forcing, increasing total latent heat fluxes and enhancing the irrigation cooling effect. Ultimately, the extent to which irrigation will continue to compensate for the warming from increased GHG forcing will primarily depend on changes in the background evaporative regime, secondary irrigation effects (e.g. clouds, precipitation), and the ability of societies to maintain (or increase) current irrigation rates.

Cook, Benjamin I.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Comment on "'Elevated Heat Pump' Hypothesis for the Aerosol-Monsoon Hydroclimate Link: 'Grounded' in Observations?" by S. Nigam and M. Bollasina

In their recent paper, Nigam and Bollasina [2010] (hereinafter NB) claimed to have found observational evidences that are at variance with the elevated heat pump (EHP) hypothesis regarding the possible impacts of absorbing aerosols on the South Asian summer monsoon [Lau et al., 2006; Lau and Kim, 2006]. We found NB's arguments and inferences against the EHP hypothesis flawed, stemming from their own out of context interpretation of the hypothesis. NB argued that the simultaneous negative correlation of aerosol with rainfall, and correlations with other quantities in May, are evidence against the EHP hypothesis. Their argument cannot be justified. First, Lau and Kim [2006] (hereinafter LK06) never stated that the main rainfall response to EHP is in May. Second, the EHP is about responses of the entire Indian monsoon system that are nonlocal in space and time with respect to the aerosol forcing. As shown in Figure 4 of LK06, while the aerosol anomalies are strongest in April-May, the strongest rainfall response is in June-July, with the enhanced rainfall fed by an induced thermally driven circulation which brings additional moisture from the ocean to the Indian subcontinent. Third, the increased rainfall over the Bay of Bengal as shown in Figure 1a of NB and the increased low-level convergence in Figure 1f of NB do not necessarily reflect responses associated with EHP but rather the large ]scale circulation that provides the buildup of the aerosols before the onset of the monsoon rainfall over India. Because aerosol can only accumulate where there is little or no washout by rain, the negative correlation is a necessary condition for increased atmospheric loading of aerosols. For the same reason, the spatial distributions of rainfall and aerosol generally are offset with each other, i.e., high aerosol in regions of low rainfall. This is evident in Figure 1, which shows the climatological mean of the MODIS aerosol optical depth (AOD), and TRMM rainfall over India in May. The maximum AOD is found over the Indo-Gangetic Plain and the desert regions of northwest India and Pakistan

Lau, K. M.↗

NASA NTRS2019

Trends in Global Tropospheric Ozone Inferred from a Composite Record of TOMS/OMI/MLS/OMPS Satellite Measurements and the MERRA-2 GMI Simulation

Past studies have suggested that ozone in the troposphere has increased globally throughout much of the 20th century due to increases in anthropogenic emissions and transport. We show, by combining satellite measurements with a chemical transport model, that during the last four decades tropospheric ozone does indeed indicate increases that are global in nature, yet still highly regional. Satellite ozone measurements from Nimbus-7 and Earth Probe Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) are merged with ozone measurements from the Aura Ozone Monitoring Instrument/Microwave Limb Sounder (OMI/MLS) to determine trends in tropospheric ozone for 1979–2016. Both TOMS (1979–2005) and OMI/MLS (2005–2016) depict large increases in tropospheric ozone from the Near East to India and East Asia and further eastward over the Pacific Ocean. The 38-year merged satellite record shows total net change over this region of about +6 to +7 Dobson units (DU) (i.e., ∼15 %–20 % of average background ozone), with the largest increase (∼4 DU) occurring during the 2005–2016 Aura period. The Global Modeling Initiative (GMI) chemical transport model with time-varying emissions is used to aid in the interpretation of tropospheric ozone trends for 1980–2016. The GMI simulation for the combined record also depicts the greatest increases of +6 to +7 DU over India and East Asia, very similar to the satellite measurements. In regions of significant increases in tropospheric column ozone (TCO) the trends are a factor of 2–2.5 larger for the Aura record when compared to the earlier TOMS record; for India and East Asia the trends in TCO for both GMI and satellite measurements are ∼+3 DU decade(exp −1) or greater during 2005–2016 compared to about +1.2 to +1.4 DU decade(exp −1) for 1979–2005. The GMI simulation and satellite data also reveal a tropospheric ozone increases in ∼+4 to +5 DU for the 38-year record over central Africa and the tropical Atlantic Ocean. Both the GMI simulation and satellite-measured tropospheric ozone during the latter Aura time period show increases of ∼+3 DU decade−1 over the N Atlantic and NE Pacific.

Ziemke, Jerald R.↗

NASA NTRS2022

Trends in sulfur dioxide over the Indian subcontinent during 2003–2019

Sulfur dioxide (SO2) and its oxidation products profoundly impact the air quality and climate. In recent decades, contrasting SO2 trends have been observed over different regions of the globe due to urbanization, energy generation and control measures. In this study, we have investigated the SO2 trends over the rapidly developing Indian subcontinent using model reanalysis, satellite data, and emission inventories during 2003–2019 period. Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) reanalysis shows rapid SO2 growth up to 0.4 ppbv/yr during 2003–2009, particularly significant over the Indo-Gangetic Plain (IGP) and eastern India. However, the growth becomes slower after 2010 and is followed by a stabilization or slight reduction. The CAMS results agree with the satellite-based observations, however, the model underestimates enhancements over eastern India. The analysis of inventory datasets also suggests slower growths in SO2 emissions and coal-fired electricity generation in recent years. Besides the changes in regional emissions, the enhancements in water vapor and OH radical coinciding with SO2 stabilization indicate strengthening of the sink processes. Model simulation (Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications version 2―MERRA-2) with constant emissions shows reduction in SO2 which confirms the stronger chemical losses. Overall, the SO2 trends over the Indian subcontinent are found to be a manifestation of the combined effects of the regional emission change and chemistry. Our findings highlight the need for studies to assess the impacts of changing SO2 trends in India on the regional and global climate.

Lakhima Chutia↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Satellite-Assisted Particulate Matter (SAPM) for the Models, In situ, and Remote Sensing of Aerosols (MIRA) Working Group

Models, In situ, and Remote sensing of Aerosols (MIRA) is an international working group that provides a forum for collaborations amongst these three atmospheric aerosol communities. MIRA consists of a collection of interdisciplinary and independently funded Topic/Project groups with clear goals and generally characterized by requests for additional scientific data. The Satellite-Assisted Particulate Matter (SAPM) Topic group focuses on the study of fine particulate matter (PM2.5), as it is a major contributor to air pollution and negatively impacts human health. Our group aims to provide intercomparisons of various methods and techniques for estimating surface PM2.5 assisted by satellite remote sensors (passive and active), global aerosol models, and in situ aerosol measurements. The overall motivation of our work is to enhance PM2.5 coverage beyond in situ ground stations, which can be limited. In this presentation, we provide an overview of various PM2.5 estimation approaches by current SAPM team members, as each approach has its own strengths and limitations. One approach uses near-surface aerosol extinction retrievals from the spaceborne Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP) and an assumed value of mass extinction efficiency to derive PM2.5 concentrations (Toth et al 2019). A study using this method found a promising agreement (R=0.60; slope=0.89) with U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) in situ PM2.5 measurements over the contiguous United States (CONUS) for a 12-year (2007-2018) period (Toth et al 2022). In a different approach combining spaceborne lidar and a model, the Cloud Aerosol Transport System (CATS) lidar and Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) model are blended in an ensemble variational assimilation scheme to retrieve aerosol extinction and convert speciated mass concentrations to total PM2.5. A recent study (Matus et al in prep.) found agreement within 2 μg/m3 over the CONUS on the 2016 annual mean when compared to EPA ground-based measurements. Another study explored trends in city aerosol optical depth (AOD) from a spaceborne passive remote sensor, Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), and found that these trends agree well with trends in city surface PM2.5, which provides confidence in the use of city AOD for city PM2.5 trend studies (Vohra et al 2021). In a follow-on study, steep and significant trends (~2.5 to 7.8% a-1) in AOD are found for several South Asian cities (e.g., Bangalore and Hyderabad), suggesting rapid growth in PM2.5 (Vohra et al 2022). Also in this presentation, we report results on our current collective SAPM study of India, a country that exhibits high levels of PM2.5 pollution. We show the temporal (i.e., seasonal) and spatial variability of PM2.5 over India using the CALIOP and CATS+model approaches, comparisons between the estimated PM2.5 from the retrieval schemes, and validation with in situ PM2.5 ground-based observations from the Central Pollution Control Board in India. This region provides us with an excellent case study to test our PM2.5 retrievals in heavily polluted scenes and over a complex and varying topography. The SAPM Topic group actively seeks international participants/collaborators in our group, including those working with in situ aerosol measurements (e.g., ACTRIS). We are interested in aerosol datasets in order to either improve our PM2.5 estimates from various approaches (e.g., using in situ mass scattering/absorption coefficient and aerosol hygroscopic properties for various aerosol species) and/or validate the PM2.5 estimates (e.g., using in situ ground-based PM2.5 concentrations).

Travis D Toth↗

DOE OSTI2021

Search for Lightly Ionizing Particles in SuperCDMS and simulation of neutron backgrounds

The Super Cryogenic Dark Matter Search (SuperCDMS) is a direct-detection dark matter search experiment that primarily aims to search for Weakly Interacting Massive Particles (WIMPs) using state-of-the-art solid-state detection technology. During its operation at the Soudan underground laboratory, germanium detectors were operated with high bias voltage mode known as the CDMS low ionization threshold experiment (CDMSlite) to achieve below-keV thresholds. CDMSlite, for being able to measure small energy depositions in detectors, also provides sensitivity to Lightly Ionizing Particles (LIPs) with very small fractional charges. This thesis will discuss an analysis to search LIPs with the data acquired in CDMSlite mode. An important component for LIPs search is the expected energy-deposition distributions for LIPs falling on the CDMSlite detector. In this thesis, a simulation framework to calculate the energy-deposition distributions is developed. This thesis presents first direct-detection limits on the intensity of cosmogenic LIPs with electric charges smaller than e /(3 × 10 5 ) as well as the strongest limits for charges ≤ e /160, with a minimum intensity of 1.36 × 10 -7 cm -2 s -1 sr -1 at charge e /160.In any rare-event search experiment, understanding background is crucial. Neutrons capable of mimicking dark matter signals are a major background for any dark matter search experiment. A simulation study to estimate the neutron background for an India based dark matter search experiment at Jaduguda Underground Science Laboratory (JUSL) is performed. The experiment at JUSL will be the first phase of a proposed Dark matter search at India-based Neutrino Observatory (DINO). It will be a direct detection experiment with primary aims to search for WIMPs as dark matter candidates. In this thesis, we discuss the methodology of estimating neutron flux at JUSL and report the results. The total neutron flux reaching the laboratory above 1 MeV energy threshold is found to be 5.76(±0.69) × 10 -6 cm -2 s -1 . The impact of neutron background on the sensitivity of the experiment to detect dark matter at JUSL is also discussed. The thesis is organized as follows. Chapter 1 provides a brief introduction to the Lightly Ionizing Particle (LIPs). The analysis to search LIPs in SuperCDMS is briefly outlined in the chapter. This chapter also discusses the importance of neutron background estimates in a dark matter search experiment, more specifically, in the context of a proposed India-based dark matter search experiment at Jaduguda Underground Science Laboratory. In Chapter 2, the SuperCDMS experiment is introduced. In Chapter 3, the framework developed to perform simulations for Lightly Ionizing Particles is presented. In Chapter 4, the LIPs search analysis with the CDMSlite data and the results are discussed. In Chapter 5, the simulation of neutron background and the feasibility of dark-matter search at JUSL is discussed. Finally, conclusions from all the results discussed in this thesis are presented in Chapter 6.

Banik, Samir↗

DOE OSTI2022

Search for lightly ionizing particles in superCDMS and simulation of neutron backgrounds

The Super Cryogenic Dark Matter Search (SuperCDMS) is a direct-detection dark matter search experiment that primarily aims to search for Weakly Interacting Massive Particles (WIMPs) using state-of-the-art solid-state detection technology. During its operation at the Soudan underground laboratory, germanium detectors were operated with high bias voltage mode known as the CDMS low ionization threshold experiment (CDMSlite) to achieve below-keV thresholds. CDMSlite, for being able to measure small energy depositions in detectors, also provides sensitivity to Lightly Ionizing Particles (LIPs) with very small fractional charges. This thesis will discuss an analysis to search LIPs with the data acquired in CDMSlite mode. An important component for LIPs search is the expected energy-deposition distributions for LIPs falling on the CDMSlite detector. In this thesis, a simulation framework to calculate the energy-deposition distributions is developed. This thesis presents first direct-detection limits on the intensity of cosmogenic LIPs with electric charges smaller than e/(3 × 105) as well as the strongest limits for charges ≤ e/160, with a minimum intensity of 1.36 × 10-7 cm-2s-1sr-1 at charge e/160.In any rare-event search experiment, understanding background is crucial. Neutrons capable of mimicking dark matter signals are a major background for any dark matter search experiment. A simulationmore » study to estimate the neutron background for an India based dark matter search experiment at Jaduguda Underground Science Laboratory (JUSL) is performed. The experiment at JUSL will be the first phase of a proposed Dark matter search at India-based Neutrino Observatory (DINO). It will be a direct detection experiment with primary aims to search for WIMPs as dark matter candidates. In this thesis, we discuss the methodology of estimating neutron flux at JUSL and report the results. The total neutron flux reaching the laboratory above 1 MeV energy threshold is found to be 5.76(±0.69) × 10-6 cm-2s-1. The impact of neutron background on the sensitivity of the experiment to detect dark matter at JUSL is also discussed. The thesis is organized as follows. Chapter 1 provides a brief introduction to the Lightly Ionizing Particle (LIPs). The analysis to search LIPs in SuperCDMS is briefly outlined in the chapter. This chapter also discusses the importance of neutron background estimates in a dark matter search experiment, more specifically, in the context of a proposed India-based dark matter search experiment at Jaduguda Underground Science Laboratory. In Chapter 2, the SuperCDMS experiment is introduced. In Chapter 3, the framework developed to perform simulations for Lightly Ionizing Particles is presented. In Chapter 4, the LIPs search analysis with the CDMSlite data and the results are discussed. In Chapter 5, the simulation of neutron background and the feasibility of dark-matter search at JUSL is discussed. Finally, conclusions from all the results discussed in this thesis are presented in Chapter 6.« less

Banik, Samir↗

DOE OSTI2020

Resource Analysis of NP Kunta Solar Park Site (White Paper)

India has set a target of 175 GW of renewable energy (RE) capacity by 2022 and 450 GW by 2030. Flexibility is key for efficient integration of renewables. The modern-day RE plants are grid-friendly and can also provide this flexibility. A pilot to demonstrate this flexibility by implementing automatic generation control (AGC) at a solar plant is being done by the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) under USAID’s Greening the Grid (GTG) Program and Renewable Integration & Sustainable Energy (RISE) initiative. This paper presents the resource variability analysis of the 250-MW NP Kunta solar plant site where the AGC pilot project is being implemented. This paper also demonstrates the use of publicly available resource quality data, which can be utilized by various stakeholders to better understand the variability of any existing or potential RE site in India and possibly increase confidence in decisions or help to understand the impacts that can be expected.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Role of Renewable Energy, Storage, and Demand Response in Karnataka's Power Sector Future

Karnataka ranks fourth among Indian states in installed capacity of renewable energy, which accounts for over 50% of its resource mix. The state is positioned to play a leading role in India's energy transition and contribute to meeting national targets for renewable energy thanks, in part, to ambitious state goals to develop Karnataka's abundant zero carbon energy resources and plans to phase out new investments in thermal plants. Power system stakeholders in Karnataka are faced with the challenge of planning a generation portfolio that accounts for the variability of wind and solar resources, meets increasing and shifting electricity demand, and satisfies operational and reliability requirements. The objective of this study is to evaluate least-cost pathways for Karnataka's electric power system through 2050. The capacity expansion model developed for this study identifies power system investment and operational decisions for every year (2020-2050) for all of India, with detailed representation of the state of Karnataka. The study led to five high-level results and provides a framework for recurring planning studies to meet changing system conditions and needs.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2022

Opportunities for Renewable Energy, Storage, Vehicle Electrification, and Demand Response in Rajasthan's Power Sector

To support the government of Rajasthan and inform state policy makers, regulators, planners, and system operators on power system trends, NREL undertook a long-term capacity expansion planning study. We used NREL's flagship capacity expansion planning tool for the power sector called the Regional Energy Deployment System India (ReEDS-India) to understand the generation and transmission needs of Rajasthan through 2050. NREL's modeling framework includes co-optimized decisions about generation, energy storage, transmission, and reserves investments needed to meet future demand while maintaining reliable electricity supply. Scenario analysis was conducted to assess a range of potential future scenarios, providing insight for planning agencies, utilities, and local stakeholders about key trends and sources of uncertainty.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Interconnection of Distributed Energy Resources in the Indian Context: IEEE 1547-2018 Adaptation for Locally-Appropriate Grid Code Development

The rapid growth of distributed energy resources (DERs) in India and ambitious renewable energy goals set forth by the Indian government have created the need for appropriate distribution interconnection standards to ensure continued system stability, reliability, and resilience. Existing DER interconnection codes in India, at the time of publishing this report, lack many of the critical grid support functionalities for DERs which may protect bulk system stability, such as event ride-through provisions, frequency droop control, or appropriate trip thresholds given the increasing importance of distributed generation. The formal adoption of IEEE 1547-2018 by the Bureau of Indian Standards (BIS) marks a significant step towards achieving appropriate interconnection of DERs, though the implementation of such a standard must be accompanied with careful consideration of the current codes, regulations, and operation of the Indian power system. Studies on the performance of the functionalities within 1547-2018, which properly incorporate local operating conditions, can inform decisions related to the adoption and adaptation of the clauses present in the standard. This report outlines several of these key considerations for stakeholders and provides analyses illustrating the performance of grid support functionalities on typical Indian distribution feeders.

1547↗

NASA NTRS2022

Observations of Particle Number Size Distributions and New Particle Formation in Six Indian Locations

Atmospheric new particle formation (NPF) is a crucial process driving aerosol number concentrations in the atmosphere; it can significantly impact the evolution of atmospheric aerosol and cloud processes. This study analyses at least 1 year of asynchronous particle number size distributions from six different locations in India. We also analyze the frequency of NPF and its contribution to cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) concentrations. We found that the NPF frequency has a considerable seasonal variability. At the measurement sites analyzed in this study, NPF frequently occurs in March–May (pre-monsoon, about 21 % of the days) and is the least common in October–November (post-monsoon, about 7 % of the days). Considering the NPF events in all locations, the particle formation rate (J_(SDS)) varied by more than 2 orders of magnitude (0.001–0.6 /cu.cm s) and the growth rate between the smallest detectable size and 25 nm (GR_(SDS-25 nm)) by about 3 orders of magnitude (0.2–17.2 nm/h). We found that JSDS was higher by nearly 1 order of magnitude during NPF events in urban areas than mountain sites. GRSDS did not show a systematic difference. Our results showed that NPF events could significantly modulate the shape of particle number size distributions and CCN concentrations in India. The contribution of a given NPF event to CCN concentrations was the highest in urban locations (4.3 × 10^(3) /cu.cm per event and 1.2 × 10^(3)/cu.cm per event for 50 and 100 nm, respectively) as compared to mountain background sites (2.7 × 10^(3)/cu.cm per event and 1.0 × 10^(3)/cu.cm per event, respectively). We emphasize that the physical and chemical pathways responsible for NPF and factors that control its contribution to CCN production require in situ field observations using recent advances in aerosol and its precursor gaseous measurement techniques.

particle number size distributions↗

DOE OSTI2023

Key Takeaways: First Cohort of Action Plans for Rapid Power Sector Decarbonization

A collaborative report from the Clean Energy Ministerial (CEM) on Lessons Learned for Rapid Decarbonization of Power Sectors was delivered to energy ministers and presented at the 13th CEM (CEM13) in the United States in September 2022. In light of these lessons learned and discussed at CEM13, several jurisdictions signaled intent to develop Action Plans for power sector decarbonization, to be released at CEM14 in India in July 2023. This fact sheet highlights the first set of Action Plans that have been developed by India, Australia, Chile, the European Union, and the United Kingdom.

Australia↗

DOE OSTI2021

Climate hazard indices projections based on CORDEX-CORE, CMIP5 and CMIP6 ensemble

The CORDEX-CORE initiative was developed with the aim of producing homogeneous regional climate model (RCM) projections over domains world wide. In its first phase, two RCMs were run at 0.22° resolution downscaling 3 global climate models (GCMs) from the CMIP5 program for 9 CORDEX domains and two climate scenarios, the RCP2.6 and RCP8.5. The CORDEX-CORE simulations along with the CMIP5 GCM ensemble and the most recently produced CMIP6 GCM ensemble are analyzed, with focus on several temperature, heat, wet and dry hazard indicators for present day and mid-century and far future time slices. The CORDEX-CORE ensemble shows a better performance than the driving GCMs for several hazard indices due to its higher spatial resolution. For the far future time slice the 3 ensembles project an increase in all temperature and heat indices analyzed under the RCP8.5 scenario. The largest increases are always shown by the CMIP6 ensemble, except for Tx > 35 °C, for which the CORDEX-CORE projects higher warming. Extreme wet and flood prone maxima are projected to increase by the RCM ensemble over the la Plata basin in South America, the Congo basin in Africa, east North America, north east Europe, India and Indochina, regions where a better performance is obtained, whereas the GCM ensembles show small or negligible signals. Furthermore, compound hazard hotspots based on heat, drought and wet indicators are detected in each continent worldwide in region like Central America, the Amazon, the Mediterranean, South Africa and Australia, where a linear relation is shown between the heatwave and drought change signal, and region like Arabian peninsula, the central and south east Africa region (SEAF), the north west America (NWN), south east Asia, India, China and central and northern European regions (WCE, NEU) where the same linear relation is found for extreme precipitation and HW increases. Although still limited, the CORDEX-CORE initiative was able to produce high resolution climate projections with almost global coverage and can provide an important resource for impact assessment and climate service activities.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Future impacts of ozone driven damages on agricultural systems

Current ozone (O 3 ) concentration levels entail significant damages in crop yields around the world. The reaction of the emitted precursors (mostly methane and nitrogen oxides) with solar radiation contribute to O 3 levels that exceed established thresholds for crop damage. This paper shows current and projected (up to 2080) relative yield losses (RYLs) driven by O 3 exposure for different crops and the associated economic damages applying dynamic crop production and prices that are calculated per region and period. We adjust future crop yields in the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) to reflect the RYLs and analyze the effects on agricultural markets. We find that the changes (generally reductions) in O 3 precursor emissions in a reference scenario would reduce the agricultural damages, compared to present, for most of the regions, with a few exceptions including India, where higher future O3 concentrations have large negative impacts on crop yields. The annual economic impact of O3 driven losses from 2010-2080 are, in billion US dollars at 2015 prices ($B), 5.0-6.0, 9.8-18.8, 6.7-10.6 and 10.4-12.5 for corn, soybeans, rice and wheat, respectively, with the large losses for wheat and soybeans driven by their comparatively high responses to O 3 . When O 3 effects are explicitly modelled as exogenous yield shocks in future periods, there is a direct impact in future agricultural markets. Therefore, the aggregated net present value (NPV) of crop production would be reduced around by $90.8B at a global level. However, these changes are not distributed evenly across regions, and the net present market value of the crops would increase by up to $118.2B (India) or decrease by up to $59.2B (China).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2019

Silicate weathering in anoxic marine sediment as a requirement for authigenic carbonate burial

We emphasize the importance of marine silicate weathering (MSiW) reactions in anoxic sediment as fundamental in generating alkalinity and cations needed for carbonate precipitation and preservation along continental margins. We use a model that couples thermodynamics with aqueous geochemistry to show that the CO 2 released during methanogenesis results in a drop in pH to 6.0; unless these protons are buffered by MSiW, carbonate minerals will dissolve. We present data from two regions: the India passive margin and the active subduction zone off Japan, where ash and/or rivers supply the reactive silicate phase, as reflected in strontium isotope data. Offshore India and Korea, alteration of continent-derived silicates results in pore water enriched in radiogenic 87 Sr, with 87 Sr/ 86 Sr ratios as high as 0.7095 and 0.7104, respectively. Off Japan, strontium in pore water influenced by ash alteration is depleted in 87 Sr, with 87 Sr/ 86 Sr as low as 0.7065. Carbonate minerals formed by alkalinity and cations generated through MSiW carry these strontium isotopic signals, and are typically dolomite, siderite, and Fe-rich calcite. These contrast with the aragonite and high-magnesium calcite that form during anaerobic oxidation of methane and incorporate the coeval seawater 87 Sr/ 86 Sr signal. We show that MSiW is necessary for authigenic carbonate formation and preservation along continental margins, which remove carbon from Earth’s surface at rates previously estimated to be at least 10 12 mol yr -1 . In addition, these authigenic carbonates are of relevance to studies of the deep biosphere, fluid flow, seismogenesis, slope stability, and reservoir characteristics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Intensive and extensive margins of the peak load: Measuring adaptation with mixed frequency panel data

In this work we investigate the response of daily electricity peak load to daily maximum temperatures across states in Europe and India. We propose a method that decomposes short- from medium/long-run effects, retains the high frequency nature of the load-weather covariation and treats economic growth as a modulating factor. By simultaneously exploiting variation in unexpected daily weather anomalies and decade-long climatic changes in each location we decompose transitory - intensive margin - adjustments from permanent - extensive margin - adjustments. We find that the shocks over the long-run differ substantially from the short-run dynamics. Furthermore, we find evidence that per capita income modulates the adjustments over the short- and long-run. We project that in response to climate change around 2050 the peak load may increase by up to 20%-30% in Southern Europe and in several states in India, depending on the degree of warming and the evolution of socio-economic conditions. Even with a limited scope to two world regions, we identify that the structure of the economy and differences in future income growth matter in shaping the adaptation to climate change. Our decomposition allows to identify how future weather anomalies can further amplify the relative increase associated to the shift in the climate norm. Assuming that the interannual variability of maximum temperatures follows the distribution observed in the past, we find a doubling of the impacts of climate change during the summer in Europe. Uncertainty around the distribution of future weather anomalies may lead to further unexpected peak load amplifications. Our results have important policy implications for power systems’ generation capacity, transmission and storage, as we show that the challenges to accommodate the peak load in days with extreme temperatures may substantially increase already around mid-century.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Global Warming Amplifies Outdoor Extreme Moist Heat During the Indian Summer Monsoon

Because of the climatological prevalence of hot, humid conditions, moist heat extremes are a significant challenge to the health and wellbeing of the people in India. While research has demonstrated the importance of summer monsoon to moist heat in India, impact of monsoon–break and warm spells in modulating extreme moist heat regionally has not been fully investigated. Here we investigate moist heat extremes, as measured by the Wet–Bulb Globe Temperature (WBGT) metric, specifically during monsoon and monsoon–break periods and find that they pose a major threat to physical labor and health relative to other seasons. During the 1951–2020 break period, an increase in area exposed (~42.76 million km 2 ), representing at least 670 million people, to extreme and detrimental WBGT values >31°C occur. Our results imply that future studies on extreme moist heat must pay close attention to the variation of weather systems on synoptic to subseasonal time scales that are superimposed on the seasonal monsoon migration.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗