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At least 253 records · Page 14
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

​Understanding a Stratigraphic Hydrothermal Resource – Geophysical Imaging at Steptoe Valley, Nevada

Sandia National Laboratories partnered with a multi-disciplinary group of subject matter experts to evaluate a stratigraphic geothermal resource in Steptoe Valley, Nevada using both established and novel geophysical imaging techniques. The stratigraphic reservoir in northern Steptoe Valley was previously discovered during oil and gas exploration. Subsequent studies, such as the Nevada Play Fairway Analysis, included data which further highlighted potential resource targets in the basin. Geophysical surveys, complemented with refined geologic mapping and geochemical sampling, were deployed to further characterize the resource. The resulting 3D geologic interpretation, conceptual model refinements, and reservoir simulations suggest that a >100MWe power-capable reservoir is likely economically accessible using conventional well placement and stimulation techniques in the Paleozoic carbonates of the deep/central basin of northern Steptoe Valley. Additional geophysical characterization and exploration drilling efforts are recommended to calibrate interpretation and determine where/how to potentially develop the northern Steptoe resource. The geophysical tools, interpretations, lessons learned, and public data generated by this study establish an exploration methodology to inform decisions for characterization and development of northern Steptoe Valley and other stratigraphic geothermal reservoirs in the western U.S.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Carbonated Brine Injection for a Pilot Site as a Low-Risk Geologic Carbon Storage Strategy: A Simulation Study

This technical report presents a preliminary study for CBI implementation in the Pena Creek pilot site in Dimmit County, Texas, targeting the Edwards Limestone Formation for SWD, in collaboration with NGL Energy Partners. The objective of this study is to find the conservative CO 2 molality for safe storage and potential risks for CBI at this pilot site. Geomodel was performed to get site-specific reservoir geology information. Reservoir modeling was performed to investigate dissolved CO 2 molality and pressure changes at relevant injection conditions. Wellbore corrosion and compatibility was discussed with corrosion modeling. Dissolved CO 2 long-term fate in the reservoir was examined with reactive transport modeling. This plan would set the scientific foundation as the initial step for future implementation in the field.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

From Subsurface to System: Offshore CCS Development for the Northeastern U.S. Atlantic Shelf

This study evaluated offshore carbon sequestration potential and infrastructure design along the mid-north Atlantic outer continental shelf, addressing the limited onshore storage options in the northeastern U.S. The objective was to define viable CCS pathways by integrating geological characterization, reservoir modeling, and system-level engineering for decarbonizing regional industrial sources. The work was conducted under US DOE grant FE0032407 for the Regional Initiatives and builds on a previous prospective resources assessment project by Battelle.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Micromagnetic Modeling of a Magnetically Unstable Zone and Its Geological Significances

Abstract Recent micromagnetic simulations have found that particles in the transitional zone between the single domain (SD) and single vortex (SV) zone are prone to thermal and external magnetic field instabilities that could adversely affect the accuracy of interpretations of paleomagnetic recordings. In this study, we attempt to evaluate the internal magnetization characteristics of these magnetically unstable (MU) particles and the influence on paleomagnetic observations by simulating the magnetic behavior of 68–104 nm truncated octahedral magnetite particles using the MERRILL modeling software. We found that: (a) The size region of the “MU zone” for grains of truncated octahedron shape is different from cubic octahedrons and spheres, indicating that the zone may be controlled by the geometry and shape of particles; (b) The MU zone has a range of 79–97 nm region, which is dominated by a hard‐axis aligned single vortex (HSV); and (c) MU particles are unstable as a function of temperature and have low coercive fields. Finally, the numerical fitting of hysteresis parameters for experimental data suggests that the influence of such MU particles in samples should not be ignored, especially for samples with fine‐grained magnetic minerals as the primary magnetic recording carriers. This research has extended our understanding of the behavior of the “MU zone” and its significance on paleomagnetic records.

Wang, Yuqin↗
DOE OSTI2021

A coupled thermo-hydro-mechanical model for simulating leakoff-dominated hydraulic fracturing with application to geologic carbon storage

A potential risk of injecting CO2 into storage reservoirs with marginal permeability (≲ 10 mD (1 mD = 10 –15 m 2 )) is that commercial injection rates could induce fracturing of the reservoir and/or the caprock. Such fracturing is essentially fluid-driven fracturing in the leakoff-dominated regime. Recent studies suggested that fracturing, if contained within the lower portion of the caprock complex, could substantially improve the injectivity without compromising the overall seal integrity. Modeling this phenomenon entails complex coupled interactions among the fluids, the fracture, the reservoir, and the caprock. Here, we develop a simple method to capture all these interplays in high fidelity by sequentially coupling a hydraulic fracturing module with a coupled thermal-hydrological-mechanical (THM) model for nonisothermal multiphase flow. The model was made numerically tractable by taking advantage of self-stabilizing features of leakoff-dominated fracturing. The model is validated against the PKN solution in the leakoff-dominated regime. Moreover, we employ the model to study thermo-poromechanical responses of a fluid-driven fracture in a field-scale carbon storage reservoir that is loosely based on the In Salah project's Krechba reservoir. The model reveals complex yet intriguing behaviors of the reservoir-caprock-fluid system with fracturing induced by cold CO 2 injection. We also study the effects of the in situ stress contrast between the reservoir and caprock and thermal contraction on the vertical containment of the fracture. The proposed model proves effective in simulating practical problems on length and time scales relevant to geological carbon storage.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Modeling gas migration through clay-based buffer material using coupled multiphase fluid flow and geomechanics with stress-dependent gas permeability

A model for gas migration through clay-based buffer material is developed for modeling gas generation and migration associated with deep geologic nuclear waste disposal. The model is based on a multiphase fluid flow and geomechanics simulator that is adapted to consider enhanced gas flow when gas pressure is high enough to approach the confining stress magnitude. A key feature in the model is a direct coupling between gas permeability and stress, through a non-linear stress-dependent permeability function. The model was first tested and calibrated by modelling two different laboratory gas migration tests on Wyoming (MX-80) bentonite samples. The calibrated model was then applied to model gas migration through a bentonite buffer of a large-scale gas injection test (Lasgit) conducted at the Äspö Hard Rock Laboratory in Sweden. Observed preferential gas migration along interfaces (between compacted blocks and along the canister surface) required explicit representation of such interfaces in the model. The model with the stress-dependent gas permeability accurately captured observed experimental responses in terms of gas breakthrough time, peak gas pressure, and cumulative gas flow rates. The calibrated model was finally applied to simulate migration of hydrogen gas generated within a breached nuclear waste canister over 10,000 years, involving migration of much larger gas volumes. For the considered gas generation rate and host rock properties, the generated gas could migrate through the bentonite buffer and released into the surrounding host rock at a maximum gas pressure somewhat higher than the initial total stress, though a significant amount of hydrogen remained within the buffer. This modelling sets the stage for further detailed analysis of the impact of hydrogen gas generation on the long-term performance of nuclear waste repositories.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2022

Modeling the distribution of the endangered Jemez Mountains salamander (Plethodon neomexicanus) in relation to geology, topography, and climate

The Jemez Mountains salamander (Plethodon neomexicanus; hereafter JMS) is an endangered salamander restricted to the Jemez Mountains in north-central New Mexico, United States. This strictly terrestrial and lungless species requires moist surface conditions for activities such as mating and foraging. Threats to its current habitat include fire suppression and ensuing severe fires, changes in forest composition, habitat fragmentation, and climate change. Forest composition changes resulting from reduced fire frequency and increased tree density suggest that its current aboveground habitat does not mirror its historically successful habitat regime. However, because of its limited habitat area and underground behavior, we hypothesized that geology and topography might play a significant role in the current distribution of the salamander. We modeled the distribution of the JMS using a machine learning algorithm to assess how geology, topography, and climate variables influence its distribution. The best habitat suitability model indicates that geology type and maximum winter temperature (November to March) were most important in predicting the distribution of the salamander (23.5% and 50.3% permutation importance, respectively). Minimum winter temperature was also an important variable (21.4%), suggesting this also plays a role in salamander habitat. Our habitat suitability map reveals low uncertainty in model predictions, and we found slight discrepancies between the designated critical habitat and the most suitable areas for the JMS. Because geological features are important to its distribution, we recommend that geological and topographical data are considered, both during survey design and in the description of localities of JMS records once detected.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

NORTH DAKOTA CARBONSAFE PHASE III: SITE CHARACTERIZATION AND PERMITTING OF GEOLOGIC STORAGE OF CARBON DIOXIDE

The Energy & Environmental Research Center (EERC), in partnership with Minnkota Power Cooperative Inc. (Minnkota), SLB, and Computer Modelling Group Ltd. (CMG), supported wide-scale deployment of carbon capture and storage (CCS) as part of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) National Energy Technology Laboratory Carbon Storage Assurance Facility Enterprise (CarbonSAFE) Initiative Phase III. This phase included the acquisition, analysis, and development of information to fully characterize two storage complexes to demonstrate viable storage resources for commercial volumes of CO2 (defined by DOE as a minimum of 50 million tonnes [MMt] of CO2 within a 30-year period) (National Energy Technology Laboratory, 2024). Phase III also involved the preparation, submission, and approval of North Dakota underground injection control (UIC) Class VI storage facility permits (SFPs)—required precursors to applications for Class VI injection well permits. The presumed viability of commercial-scale CCS, situated adjacent to Minnkota’s Milton R. Young Station (MRYS), is validated by Minnkota’s continued pursuit of Project Tundra—an initiative to build the world’s largest lignite-based CCS project in central North Dakota (www.projecttundrand.com). Project Tundra comprises two scopes of work, Tundra Capture (installation of postcombustion CO2 capture at MRYS) and Tundra SGS (secure geologic storage). The efforts of North Dakota CarbonSAFE Phase III, Site Characterization and Permitting, supported Tundra SGS. Extensive site-specific characterization activities included a successful multimeasurement geophysical approach and drilling a stratigraphic test well (J-ROC 1, subsequently renamed Liberty-1) adjacent to MRYS. Core collection and analyses, downhole testing and fluid sampling, and geophysical logging were performed on J-ROC 1 and on a nearby stratigraphic test well (known as J-LOC 1), which was drilled, cored, and tested under a complementary project funded by the North Dakota Lignite Research Program. The injection tests performed on J-LOC 1 positively impacted the CarbonSAFE project, resulting in fewer proposed injection wells and significant construction, operations, and monitoring cost savings. The characterization data collected and analyses performed were integrated into geologic models, and successive numerical simulations were run to determine CO2 plume extent and subsurface pressure buildup associated with the planned CO2 injection rate of nearly 4 MMt per year. The latter doubles the CarbonSAFE Initiative goal with an estimated 100 MMt of CO2 stored in 20 years. Application of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA’s) method for estimating the Class VI Rule area of review (AOR) to the overpressurized Broom Creek Formation inspired an alternative method of calculation, called risk-based AOR delineation. This peer-reviewed method was applied for the first time during the storage facility-permitting process. The two SFP applications submitted in 2021 successfully resulted in North Dakota Industrial Commission (NDIC) orders in 2022 authorizing the creation of the storage facility areas and amalgamation of pore space as well as establishing financial responsibility requirements. After approval of the SFPs, Minnkota filed in 2022 applications for permits to reenter the J-ROC 1 well and to drill two new wells—all with the intended purpose to become Class VI injection wells. To establish eligibility under the Internal Revenue Code for Section 45Q tax incentives, a monitoring, reporting, and verification (MRV) plan was prepared and submitted by Minnkota to EPA in 2022, resulting in the first such plan approved in North Dakota. Also in 2022, under the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA), Minnkota prepared and submitted an environmental information volume (EIV) describing the proposed CCS project and associated potential environmental impacts. Based on the EIV, DOE determined that the proposed construction project required an environmental assessment, and Minnkota submitted the first draft in 2023 and a revised draft in 2024. Both submissions were followed by a public comment period. Subsequently, DOE issued a finding of no significant impact (FONSI) on September 13, 2024. A successful outreach program, strongly based in the production, presentation, and dissemination of informational material, fostered an environment to aid stakeholders in making informed decisions regarding the planned project. Opportunities for public input were provided at various steps along the way, including at county planning and zoning meetings, before and during the SFP administrative hearing, and during environmental assessment public comment periods. In addition, land/pore space owners and mineral owners had various points of contact, including granting access rights, securing pore space leasing, and mineral owner notifications. Based upon the successful storage facility permitting issued by NDIC, approval of the MRV plan by EPA, and receipt of a FONSI under the NEPA, Minnkota is continuing its pursuit of Project Tundra. In December 2023, the Office of Clean Energy Demonstrations under its Carbon Capture Demonstrations Projects Program announced funding for the capture system (Office of Clean Energy Demonstrations, 2023) and a proposal for CarbonSAFE Phase IV: Construction funding was submitted in March 2024 for the storage project. A go/no-go decision to proceed with construction and operations in the Broom Creek Formation is anticipated in 2024. References National Energy Technology Laboratory, CarbonSafe Initiative, https://netl.doe.gov/carbon-management/carbon-storage/carbonsafe (accessed August 2024). Office of Clean Energy Demonstrations, 2023, OCED selects three projects in CA, ND, and TX to reduce harmful carbon pollution, create new economic opportunities, and advance carbon reducing technologies, December, www.energy.gov/oced/articles/oced-selects-three-projects-ca-nd-and-tx-reduce-harmful-carbon-pollution-create-new (accessed August 2024).

Peck, Wesley↗
DOE OSTI2023

Implementation and verification of a user-defined element (UEL) for coupled thermal-hydraulic-mechanical-chemical (THMC) processes in saturated geological media

Efficient and accurate modeling of the coupled thermal-hydraulic-mechanical-chemical (THMC) processes in various rock formations is indispensable for designing energy geo-structures such as underground repositories for high-level nuclear wastes. Here, this work focuses on developing and verifying an implicit finite element solver for generic coupled THMC problems in geological settings. Starting from the mass, momentum, and energy balance laws, a specialized set of governing equations and a thermoporoelastic constitutive model is derived. This system is then solved by an implicit finite element (FE) scheme. Specifically, the residuals and the Jacobians are scripted in a user-defined element (UEL) subroutine which is then combined with the general-purpose FE software Abaqus Standard to solve initial-boundary value problems. Considering the complexity of the system, the UEL development follows a stepwise manner by first solving the coupled hydraulic-mechanical (HM) and thermal-hydraulic-mechanical (THM) equations before moving on to the full THMC problem. Each implementation step consists of at least one verification test by comparing computed results with closed-form analytical solutions to ensure that the various coupling effects are correctly realized. To demonstrate the robustness of the algorithm and to validate the UEL, a three-dimensional case study is performed with reference to the in-situ heating test of ATLAS at Belgium in 1980s. A hypothetical radionuclide leakage event is then simulated by activating the chemical-concentration degree of freedom and prescribing a constant high concentration at the heater's surface. The model predicts a limited contaminated regime after six years considering both diffusion and advection effects on species transport.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2025

Coupled THM modeling of bentonite heating and hydration in tank tests with a new temperature-dependent water retention model

This study presents a coupled thermo-hydro-mechanical (THM) model for simulating the heating and hydration behavior of bentonite, a buffer material in deep geological repositories (DGRs). The model incorporates a new temperature-dependent soil water retention curve which captures the thermal-induced shift in water retention behavior. It also distinguishes between liquid and gas permeability, modeling intrinsic gas permeability as a function of accessible porosity to improve vapor transport and desaturation predictions. The model was validated against two large-scale tank tests, demonstrating good agreement with measured temperature, relative humidity, and water inflow data. It revealed a complex porosity evolution driven by thermal expansion, vapor movement, vapor condensation, and hydration-induced swelling during heating and hydration processes. The simulation results also suggest that the permeability of the hydration layer plays a critical role in controlling water intake. Clogging of this layer can significantly reduce the volume of water inflow during the hydration phase. Furthermore, while the model effectively captures key THM behavior, further development of the mechanical constitutive law is required to account for possible thermo-elasto-plastic volume changes and microstructural effects. Overall, the model provides a robust tool for evaluating the evolution of bentonite-based barrier material in DGRs.

Guo, Guanlong [Lawrence Berkeley National Laborato↗
DOE OSTI2022

Uncertainty propagation in pore water chemical composition calculation using surrogate models

Performance assessment in deep geological nuclear waste repository systems necessitates an extended knowledge of the pore water chemical conditions prevailing in host-rock formations. In the last two decades, important progress has been made in the experimental characterization and thermodynamic modeling of pore water speciation, but the influence of experimental artifacts and uncertainties of thermodynamic input parameters are seldom evaluated. In this respect, we conducted an uncertainty propagation study in a reference geochemical model describing the pore water chemistry of the Callovian-Oxfordian clay formation. Nineteen model input parameters were perturbed, including those associated to experimental characterization (leached anions, exchanged cations, cation exchange selectivity coefficients) and those associated to generic thermodynamic databases (solubilities). A set of 13 quantities of interest were studied by the use of polynomial chaos expansions built non-intrusively with a least-squares forward stepwise regression approach. Training and validation sets of simulations were carried out using the geochemical speciation code PHREEQC. The statistical results explored the marginal distribution of each quantity of interest, their bivariate correlations as well as their global sensitivity indices. The influence of the assumed distributions for input parameters uncertainties was evaluated by considering two parametric domain sizes.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

Pore‐Scale Modeling of Carbon Dioxide and Hydrogen Transport During Geologic Gas Storage

Abstract Geologic storage of CO 2 and H 2 are climate‐positive techniques for meeting the energy transition. While similar formations could be considered for both gases, the flow dynamics could differ due to differences in their thermophysical properties. We conduct a rigorous pore‐scale study of water/CO 2 and water/H 2 systems at relevant reservoir conditions in a Bentheimer rock sample using the lattice Boltzmann method to quantify the effects of capillary, viscous, inertial, and wetting forces during gas invasion. At similar conditions, H 2 invasion is weaker compared to CO 2 due to unfavorable viscosity ratios. Increasing flow rate, however, increases the breakthrough saturation for both gas systems in the range of capillary numbers studied. At isolated conditions of flow rate, viscosity ratio, and wettability, local inertial effects are found to be critical and show consistent increase in the invaded gas saturation. The effect of inertial forces persits for both gases across all field conditions tested.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Generalization of Deep-Learning Models for Classification of Local Distance Earthquakes and Explosions across Various Geologic Settings

Although accurately classifying signals from earthquakes and explosions at local distance (<250 km) remains an important task for seismic network operations, the growing volume of available seismic data presents a challenge for analysts using traditional source discrimination techniques. In recent years, deep-learning models have proven effective at discriminating between low-magnitude earthquakes and explosions measured at local distances, but it is not clear how well these models are capable of generalizing across different geological settings. To address the issue of generalization between regions, we train deep-learning models (convolutional neural networks [CNNs]) on time–frequency representations (scalograms) of three-component earthquake and explosion signals from eight different regions in the continental United States. We explore scenarios where models are trained on data from all regions, individual regions, or all but one region. We find that although CNN models trained on individual regions do not necessarily generalize well across different settings, models trained on multiple regions that include diverse path coverage generalize to new regions, with station-level accuracy of up to 90% or more for data sets from unseen regions. In general, CNN-based discrimination models significantly outperform models based on uncorrected P/S ratio (measured in the 10–18 Hz frequency band), even when CNN models are tested on data from entirely unseen regions.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Sensitivity of modelled passive margin stratigraphy to variations in sea level, sediment supply and subsidence

Abstract We produced a 10 Myr synthetic stratigraphic section using a forward stratigraphic model that generates marine deltaic stratigraphy over geological timescales. We recursively fit the model using a Bayesian inversion algorithm to test: (1) if it could be accurately reconstructed; (2) if the parameters used to create it could be recovered; and (3) the sensitivity of the model output to given model parameters and the attendant physical processes. The original synthetic stratigraphic section was produced with cyclical sea‐level variations of 40 and 30 m with 2.4 and 10 Myr periods respectively. Sediment was also supplied cyclically, in 2.4 and 10 Myr cycles with amplitudes of 30 and 80 tons/100 kyr, respectively, varying from a mean of 232 tons/100 kyr. Parameter values were sampled to fit the model using a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm, resulting in a ±5 m (1σ) variation between the experimental output and the original. Sea level varied by ±7 m (1σ) within the posterior distribution of parameters. As a result, both the 10 Myr and 2.4 Myr sea‐level cycles could be extracted from the original output. The variation in sediment supply was approximately ±38 tons/100 kyr (1σ) and, as a result, only the larger long‐term supply variations could be accurately recovered in refitting the model. The variation in thermal, flexural and total subsidence across those parameter sets is less than ±10 m (1σ). The original section experienced 150 m of total subsidence at the depocentre. Our results demonstrate the distinct and interpretable imprint of sea level and subsidence on continental margin stratigraphy can be quantified. Moreover, we conclude that sea‐level change produces a defined effect on the geometries of stratigraphic architecture, and that techniques applied for the purpose of delineating sea‐level variation from continental margin strata have a well‐founded conceptual basis.

Schmelz, William J.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Geographic source attribution of honey by strontium isotope analyses: Latvia and India measurements compared to model predictions in a feasibility study

Strontium isotope ratios ( 87 Sr/ 86 Sr) can be used to determine the geographic origin of agricultural products. Here, in this study, we measured the 87 Sr/ 86 Sr of honey samples from Richland, WA, USA, Latvia, and India, and compared the results to published 87 Sr/ 86 Sr from surrounding areas and values predicted based upon a random forest isoscape model (Bataille et al., 2020). While the 87 Sr/ 86 Sr of the honey samples compared well with previously published data, the model did not accurately predict the 87 Sr/ 86 Sr of the honey samples, demonstrating that further refinement of the model would be beneficial. Because Sr cycling in terrestrial ecosystems is complex, the 87 Sr/ 86 Sr of honey is likely to reflect several sources (e.g., nectar, surface water, dust) and may change over time. In order to accurately predict the 87 Sr/ 86 Sr of honey, models must consider local geology, ecology, and bee behavior. Additional research examining how Sr is incorporated into honey is needed to inform models.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Simulating Isotropic Rayleigh Wave Horizontal to Vertical Ratios at Rock Valley

Elastic anisotropy in the subsurface can manifest from pre-existing structure or stress-induced cracking – both phenomena are of interest at the Rock Valley site in Nevada. The azimuthal dependence of Rayleigh wave ellipticity, also known as H/V, can reveal elastic anisotropy, but the effect of isotropic variability in H/V must first be accounted for. To that end, we simulate synthetic seismograms from a ring of sources in a fully 3-D isotropic velocity model that captures the geology at Rock Valley. We measure H/V from these waveforms and compare them with H/V predictions obtained using 1D models extracted at specific locations from the 3D model. We find that an average of the azimuthal H/V measurements from the 3-D simulations and 1-D predictions agree, but that the azimuthal variability of H/V is a large fraction of the mean value. These results estimate the noise character in azimuthal H/V so it can be factored out of future anisotropic simulations.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

River Deltas and Sea-Level Rise

Future sea-level rise poses an existential threat for many river deltas, yet quantifying the effect of sea-level changes on these coastal landforms remains a challenge. Sea-level changes have been slow compared to other coastal processes during the instrumental record, such that our knowledge comes primarily from models, experiments, and the geologic record. Here we review the current state of science on river delta response to sea-level change, including models and observations from the Holocene until 2300 CE. We report on improvements in the detection and modeling of past and future regional sea-level change, including a better understanding of the underlying processes and sources of uncertainty. We also see significant improvements in morphodynamic delta models. Still, substantial uncertainties remain, notably on present and future subsidence rates in and near deltas. Observations of delta submergence and land loss due to modern sea-level rise also remain elusive, posing major challenges to model validation. There are large differences in the initiation time and subsequent delta progradation during the Holocene, likely from different sea-level and sediment supply histories. Modern deltas are larger and will face faster sea-level rise than during their Holocene growth, making them susceptible to forced transgression. Regional sea-level projections have been much improved in the past decade and now also isolate dominant sources of uncertainty, such as the Antarctic ice sheet. Vertical land motion in deltas can be the dominant source of relative sea-level change and the dominant source of uncertainty; limited observations complicate projections. River deltas globally might lose 5% (~35,000 km 2 ) of their surface area by 2100 and 50% by 2300 due to relative sea-level rise under a high-emission scenario.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗