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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Multi-phenomenology Yield Characterization

This report serves as the first delivery of a four-year applied science effort to transform and advance the error bounds for the yield estimate of an explosion. Each year’s delivery will be in this form, culminating in the submission of this work for peer review to a scientific journal. Importantly, the yearly progress reports can then also be viewed as expanding drafts working towards a formal journal article submission. For the first tranche of funding, we collaborated with Air Force Technical Applications Center (AFTAC) scientists to identify unclassified real-world data that demonstrate and validate our advanced error propagation methods. Collaboration includes visits to AFTAC and telecons. For this development, we illustrate the fusion of seismic, acoustic, optical, and surface effect signatures from an explosion. The mathematics and code being adapted to this specific application (Williams et al., 2021) involves physics models of multiple sensor signatures. We have also identified related physics models and have integrated them into code. Current methods of underground explosion yield estimation for the Threshold Test Ban Treaty (TTBT) have served the US treaty monitoring mission well for decades. A research objective of the Defense Nuclear Nonproliferation Research and Development (DNN R&D) office of the National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) has always been to provide new technical capabilities for monitoring lower thresholds. The general model and error propagation code to be developed in this project is based on significant advances in error modeling and propagation needed to analyze data at lower detection thresholds. The second tranche of funding for this project began on May 1, 2022, and planned work for the second tranche includes: i) completing the integration of physical model code into the general error model framework; this code accommodates a wide range of linear/nonlinear source models, fixed/ random effects, and frequentist/Bayesian analyses (the purpose of which is not to dictate to users how to analyze data, but instead to allow users the maximum flexibility in their work); ii) illustrative application of code to identified data, and; iii) initial planning with AFTAC researchers on delivery of code to the Common Development Environment at AFTAC, and continued writing of the planned final journal article submission (year two of this progress report), with particular emphasis on descriptions of data identified for this effort.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗
NASA NTRS2000

Data Retrieval Algorithms for Validating the Optical Transient Detector and the Lightning Imaging Sensor

A linear algebraic solution is provided for the problem of retrieving the location and time of occurrence of lightning ground strikes from an Advanced Lightning Direction Finder (ALDF) network. The ALDF network measures field strength, magnetic bearing, and arrival time of lightning radio emissions. Solutions for the plane (i.e., no earth curvature) are provided that implement all of these measurements. The accuracy of the retrieval method is tested using computer-simulated datasets, and the relative influence of bearing and arrival time data an the outcome of the final solution is formally demonstrated. The algorithm is sufficiently accurate to validate NASA:s Optical Transient Detector and Lightning Imaging Sensor. A quadratic planar solution that is useful when only three arrival time measurements are available is also introduced. The algebra of the quadratic root results are examined in detail to clarify what portions of the analysis region lead to fundamental ambiguities in sc)iirce location, Complex root results are shown to be associated with the presence of measurement errors when the lightning source lies near an outer sensor baseline of the ALDF network. For arbitrary noncollinear network geometries and in the absence of measurement errors, it is shown that the two quadratic roots are equivalent (no source location ambiguity) on the outer sensor baselines. The accuracy of the quadratic planar method is tested with computer-generated datasets, and the results are generally better than those obtained from the three-station linear planar method when bearing errors are about 2 deg.

Koshak, W. J.↗
DOE OSTI2021

FY21 Status report on the CMVB and CNWG International Collaborations

The ART-GCR Methods area includes an international collaboration work package that covers the tasks defined for the Computational Methods Validation and Benchmark (CMVB)and Civil Nuclear Energy Research and Development Working Group (CNWG) projects. This report summarizes the status of the FY21 tasks and planned FY22 DOE contributions. The CMVB Project Arrangement (PA) is not yet formally approved by all signatories, and no work has therefore been performed in FY21 at INL related to this activity. The CNWG activities inFY21 consisted of the simulation of the High Temperature Test Reactor (HTTR) Loss Of Forced Cooling (LOFC) experimental with the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) codes Griffin, BISON and RELAP-7 based on the Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE).It was found that the multiphysics coupled suite is capable of simulating all the important phenomena occurring during the Depressurized Loss of Forced Cooling (DLOFC) experiments showing promising agreement with the measurements given the number of uncertainties and approximations introduced into the model.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2022

CyTRICS: Vulnerability Analysis Tailored for Critical Infrastructure

Society and modern life are dependent on critical infrastructure that is composed of expensive, special purpose devices that have long life cycles and may be in use for decades before being replaced. There are an abundance of organizations and individuals doing vulnerability analysis on a variety of systems, but what makes the Cyber Testing for Resilient Industrial Control Systems (CyTRICS) program unique and valuable is its strategic focus on high-priority critical infrastructure, close partnership with vendors, and ability to leverage bills of materials (BOMs) to identify and relate vulnerabilities to affected systems. Creating a bill of materials is a formal way of understanding and documenting the components of a system, including everything from integrated circuits to operating systems to third-party libraries. This is beneficial for connecting known vulnerabilities to affected devices, since vulnerabilities in a specific component are often not mapped to all systems that use that vulnerable component. Additionally, CyTRICS finds novel vulnerabilities through its vulnerability testing process and works closely with vendor partners to provide vulnerability reports so that affected systems can be patched in a timely manner. This presentation will describe the interrelated technical processes CyTRICS uses to create bills of materials and conduct vulnerability analysis.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
NASA NTRS1997

ALDF Data Retrieval Algorithms for Validating the Optical Transient Detector (OTD) and the Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS)

A linear algebraic solution is provided for the problem of retrieving the location and time of occurrence of lightning ground strikes from in Advanced Lightning Direction Finder (ALDF) network. The ALDF network measures field strength, magnetic bearing, and arrival time of lightning radio emissions and solutions for the plane (i.e.. no Earth curvature) are provided that implement all of these measurements. The accuracy of the retrieval method is tested using computer-simulated data sets and the relative influence of bearing and arrival time data on the outcome of the final solution is formally demonstrated. The algorithm is sufficiently accurate to validate NASA's Optical Transient Detector (OTD) and Lightning Imaging System (LIS). We also introduce a quadratic planar solution that is useful when only three arrival time measurements are available. The algebra of the quadratic root results are examined in detail to clarify what portions of the analysis region lead to fundamental ambiguities in source location. Complex root results are shown to be associated with the presence of measurement errors when the lightning source lies near an outer sensor baseline of the ALDF network. For arbitrary noncollinear network geometries and in the absence of measurement errors, it is shown that the two quadratic roots are equivalent (no source location ambiguity) on the outer sensor baselines. The accuracy of the quadratic planar method is tested with computer-generated data sets and the results are generally better than those obtained from the three station linear planar method when bearing errors are about 2 degrees.

Koshak, W. J.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Quantum Super-resolution Bioimaging using Massively Entangled Multimode Squeezed Light

This report presents a new method for realizing a super-resolution quantum imaging using massively entangled multimode squeezed light (MEMSL). Each branch of the entangled multimode light interacts with the sample and bears the spatially varying optical phase delay. When imaging optics with finite pupil sizes are used, information is lost. Thanks to the analyticity in the Fourier plane, a noiseless measurement would recover the lost information and accomplish super resolution imaging beating the Rayleigh diffraction limit. I proved rigorously in a fully quantum formalism and presented that (1) such information recovery is possible and (2) the information recovery can be accomplished with much less resources when MEMSL is used than those needed in any non-entangled or non-squeezed classical imaging method. Furthermore, the action of the optical loss in the imaging system that degrades the imaging performance is also rigorously analyzed and presented. Several bioimaging applications that can benefit tremendously from the proposed quantum imaging scheme are also suggested.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
NASA NTRS1994

A spectral formalism for computing three-dimensional deformations due to surface loads. 2: Present-day glacial isostatic adjustment

Using a spherically symmetric, self-gravitating, linear viscoelastic Earth model, we predict present-day three-dimensional surface deformation rates and baseline evolutions arising as a consequence of the late Pleistocene glacial cycles. In general, we use realistic models for the space-time geometry of the final late Pleistocene deglaciation event and incorporate a gravitationally self-consistent ocean meltwater redistribution. The predictions of horizontal velocity presented differ significantly, in both their amplitude and their spatial variation, from those presented in earlier analysis of others which adopted simplified models of both the late Pleistocene ice history and the Earth rheology. An important characteristic of our predicted velocity fields is that the melting of the Laurentide ice sheet over Canada is capable of contributing appreciably to the adjustment in Europe. The sensitivity of the predictions to variations in mantle rheology is investigated by considering a number of different Earth models, and by computing appropriate Frechet kernels. These calculations suggest that the sensitivity of the deformations to the Earth's rheology is significant and strongly dependent on the location of the site relative to the ancient ice sheet. The effects on the predictions of three-dimensional deformation rates of altering the ice history or adopting approximate models for the ocean meltwater redistribution have also been considered and found to be important (the former especially so). Finally, for a suite of Earth models we provide predictions of the velocity of a number of baselines in North America and Europe. We find that, in general, both radial and tangential motions contribute significantly to baseline length changes, and that these contributions are a strong function of the Earth model. We have, furthermore, found a set of Earth models which, together with the ICE-3G deglaciation chronology, produce predictions of baseline length changes that are consistent with very long baseline interferometry measurements of baselines within Europe.

Mitrovica, J. X.↗
NASA NTRS1999

Chandra Serendipitous and Cycle 1 Targeted Surveys

A team led by scientists at the Chandra X-ray Center (CXC, formally known as the AXAF Science Center) is developing plans for a Serendipitous Survey using a selected subset of Chandra observations starting with Cycle 1. This survey will include two parts: (1) for sources sufficiently bright to be identified in available sky surveys (V approximately < 21), probable optical identifications and related imaging data will be, provided with the X-ray data as part of the Chandra data products. (2) at fainter flux X-ray source identifications will be determined from publically available, archival data and new optical imaging observations. We estimate that this survey will yield approximately 2500 source identifications in Cycle 1 down to X-ray flux levels approximately 10(exp -15) erg/sq cm.s and covering an area of sky approximately 10 sq degs. Optical spectroscopy and radio imaging will also be obtained for a subset of these sources. We are exploring appropriate ways to involve interested Chandra observers as well as other scientists in this survey project. A general overview of the various surveys which comprise a portion of the Chandra Cycle 1 GTO and GO programs and are not covered elsewhere in these proceedings will also be presented.

Wilkes, Belinda↗
NASA NTRS1991

Theoretical molecular studies of astrophysical interest

When work under this grant began in 1974 there was a great need for state-to-state collisional excitation rates for interstellar molecules observed by radio astronomers. These were required to interpret observed line intensities in terms of local temperatures and densities, but, owing to lack of experimental or theoretical values, estimates then being used for this purpose ranged over several orders of magnitude. A problem of particular interest was collisional excitation of formaldehyde; Townes and Cheung had suggested that the relative size of different state-to-state rates (propensity rules) was responsible for the anomalous absorption observed for this species. We believed that numerical molecular scattering techniques (in particular the close coupling or coupled channel method) could be used to obtain accurate results, and that these would be computationally feasible since only a few molecular rotational levels are populated at the low temperatures thought to prevail in the observed regions. Such calculations also require detailed knowledge of the intermolecular forces, but we thought that those could also be obtained with sufficient accuracy by theoretical (quantum chemical) techniques. Others, notably Roy Gordon at Harvard, had made progress in solving the molecular scattering equations, generally using semi-empirical intermolecular potentials. Work done under this grant generalized Gordon's scattering code, and introduced the use of theoretical interaction potentials obtained by solving the molecular Schroedinger equation. Earlier work had considered only the excitation of a diatomic molecule by collisions with an atom, and we extended the formalism to include excitation of more general molecular rotors (e.g., H2CO, NH2, and H2O) and also collisions of two rotors (e.g., H2-H2).

Flynn, George↗
NASA NTRS2011

Experiments in Reconstructing Twentieth-Century Sea Levels

One approach to reconstructing historical sea level from the relatively sparse tide-gauge network is to employ Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOFs) as interpolatory spatial basis functions. The EOFs are determined from independent global data, generally sea-surface heights from either satellite altimetry or a numerical ocean model. The problem is revisited here for sea level since 1900. A new approach to handling the tide-gauge datum problem by direct solution offers possible advantages over the method of integrating sea-level differences, with the potential of eventually adjusting datums into the global terrestrial reference frame. The resulting time series of global mean sea levels appears fairly insensitive to the adopted set of EOFs. In contrast, charts of regional sea level anomalies and trends are very sensitive to the adopted set of EOFs, especially for the sparser network of gauges in the early 20th century. The reconstructions appear especially suspect before 1950 in the tropical Pacific. While this limits some applications of the sea-level reconstructions, the sensitivity does appear adequately captured by formal uncertainties. All our solutions show regional trends over the past five decades to be fairly uniform throughout the global ocean, in contrast to trends observed over the shorter altimeter era. Consistent with several previous estimates, the global sea-level rise since 1900 is 1.70 +/- 0.26 mm/yr. The global trend since 1995 exceeds 3 mm/yr which is consistent with altimeter measurements, but this large trend was possibly also reached between 1935 and 1950.

Ray, Richard D.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Theory of molecular emission power spectra. I. Macroscopic quantum electrodynamics formalism

In this work, we study the emission power spectrum of a molecular emitter with multiple vibrational modes in the framework of macroscopic quantum electrodynamics. The theory we present is general for a molecular spontaneous emission spectrum in the presence of arbitrary inhomogeneous, dispersive, and absorbing media. Moreover, the theory shows that the molecular emission power spectra can be decomposed into the electromagnetic environment factor and lineshape function. In order to demonstrate the validity of the theory, we investigate the lineshape function in two limits. In the incoherent limit (single molecules in a vacuum), the lineshape function exactly corresponds to the Franck–Condon principle. In the coherent limit (single molecules strongly coupled with single polaritons or photons) together with the condition of high vibrational frequency, the lineshape function exhibits a Rabi splitting, the spacing of which is exactly the same as the magnitude of exciton–photon coupling estimated by our previous theory [S. Wang et al., J. Chem. Phys. 151, 014105 (2019)]. Finally, we explore the influence of exciton–photon and electron–phonon interactions on the lineshape function of a single molecule in a cavity. The theory shows that the vibronic structure of the lineshape function does not always disappear as the exciton–photon coupling increases, and it is related to the loss of a dielectric environment.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2022

Quantifying the role of the lattice in metal–insulator phase transitions

Many materials exhibit phase transitions at which both the electronic properties and the crystal structure change. Some authors have argued that the change in electronic order is primary, with the lattice distortion a relatively minor side-effect, and others have argued that the lattice distortions play an essential role in the energetics of the transition. In this paper, we introduce a formalism that resolves this long-standing problem. The methodology works with any electronic structure method that produces solutions of the equation of state determining the electronic order parameter as a function of lattice distortion. We use the formalism to settle the question of the physics of the metal–insulator transitions in the rare-earth perovskite nickelates (RNiO 3 ) and Ruddlesden–Popper calcium ruthenates (Ca 2 RuO 4 ) in bulk, heterostructure, and epitaxially strained thin film forms, finding that electron-lattice coupling is key to stabilizing the insulating state in both classes of materials.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
NASA NTRS1995

Implications of Gamma-Ray Transparency Constraints in Blazars: Minimum Distances and Gamma-Ray Collimation

We develop a general expression for the gamma - gamma absorption coefficient, alpha(sub gamma(gamma)) for gamma-rays propagating in an arbitrary direction at an arbitrary point in space above an X-ray-emitting accretion disk. The X-ray intensity is assumed to vary as a power law in energy and radius between the outer disk radius, R(sub 0), and the inner radius, R(sub ms) which is the radius of marginal stability for a Schwarzschild black hole. We use our result for alpha(sub gamma(gamma)) to calculate the gamma - gamma optical depth, tau(sub gamma(gamma)) for gamma - rays created at height z and propagating at angle Phi relative to the disk axis, and we show that for Phi = 0 and z greater than or approx equal to R(sub 0), tau(sub gamma(gamma)) proportional to Epsilon(sup alpha)z(sup -2(alpha) - 3), where alpha is the X-ray spectral index and Epsilon is the gamma - ray energy. As an application, we use our formalism to compute the minimum distance between the central black hole and the site of production of the gamma-rays detected by EGRET during the 1991 June flare of 3C 279. In order to obtain an upper limit, we assume that all of the X-rays observed contemporaneously by Ginga were emitted by the disk. Our results suggest that the observed gamma - rays may have originated within less than or approx equal to 45 GM/sq c from a black hole of mass greater than or approx equal to 10(exp 9) solar mass, perhaps in active plasma located above the central funnel of the accretion disk. This raises the possibility of establishing a direct connection between the production of the observed gamma - rays and the accretion of material onto the black hole. We also consider the variation of the optical depth as a function of the angle of propagation Phi. Our results indicate that the "focusing" of the gamma - rays along the disk axis due to pair production is strong enough to explain the observed degree of alignment in blazar sources. If the gamma - rays are produced isotropically in gamma - ray blazars, then these objects should appear as bright MeV sources when viewed along off-axis lines of sight.

Becker, Peter A.↗
NASA NTRS2008

Safe Upper-Bounds Inference of Energy Consumption for Java Bytecode Applications

Many space applications such as sensor networks, on-board satellite-based platforms, on-board vehicle monitoring systems, etc. handle large amounts of data and analysis of such data is often critical for the scientific mission. Transmitting such large amounts of data to the remote control station for analysis is usually too expensive for time-critical applications. Instead, modern space applications are increasingly relying on autonomous on-board data analysis. All these applications face many resource constraints. A key requirement is to minimize energy consumption. Several approaches have been developed for estimating the energy consumption of such applications (e.g. [3, 1]) based on measuring actual consumption at run-time for large sets of random inputs. However, this approach has the limitation that it is in general not possible to cover all possible inputs. Using formal techniques offers the potential for inferring safe energy consumption bounds, thus being specially interesting for space exploration and safety-critical systems. We have proposed and implemented a general frame- work for resource usage analysis of Java bytecode [2]. The user defines a set of resource(s) of interest to be tracked and some annotations that describe the cost of some elementary elements of the program for those resources. These values can be constants or, more generally, functions of the input data sizes. The analysis then statically derives an upper bound on the amount of those resources that the program as a whole will consume or provide, also as functions of the input data sizes. This article develops a novel application of the analysis of [2] to inferring safe upper bounds on the energy consumption of Java bytecode applications. We first use a resource model that describes the cost of each bytecode instruction in terms of the joules it consumes. With this resource model, we then generate energy consumption cost relations, which are then used to infer safe upper bounds. How energy consumption for each bytecode instruction is measured is beyond the scope of this paper. Instead, this paper is about how to infer safe energy consumption estimations assuming that those energy consumption costs are provided. For concreteness, we use a simplified version of an existing resource model [1] in which an energy consumption cost for individual Java opcodes is defined.

Navas, Jorge↗
NASA NTRS2007

Searching Across the International Space Station Databases

Data access in the enterprise generally requires us to combine data from different sources and different formats. It is advantageous thus to focus on the intersection of the knowledge across sources and domains; keeping irrelevant knowledge around only serves to make the integration more unwieldy and more complicated than necessary. A context search over multiple domain is proposed in this paper to use context sensitive queries to support disciplined manipulation of domain knowledge resources. The objective of a context search is to provide the capability for interrogating many domain knowledge resources, which are largely semantically disjoint. The search supports formally the tasks of selecting, combining, extending, specializing, and modifying components from a diverse set of domains. This paper demonstrates a new paradigm in composition of information for enterprise applications. In particular, it discusses an approach to achieving data integration across multiple sources, in a manner that does not require heavy investment in database and middleware maintenance. This lean approach to integration leads to cost-effectiveness and scalability of data integration with an underlying schemaless object-relational database management system. This highly scalable, information on demand system framework, called NX-Search, which is an implementation of an information system built on NETMARK. NETMARK is a flexible, high-throughput open database integration framework for managing, storing, and searching unstructured or semi-structured arbitrary XML and HTML used widely at the National Aeronautics Space Administration (NASA) and industry.

Maluf, David A.↗
NASA NTRS1999

A Spherical Earth Solution for TOA Lightning Location Retrieval

With the advent of high-speed digital computers, the method of chi square minimization is a highly practical means for analyzing a wide variety of (otherwise intractable) nonlinear inversion problems in applied mathematical physics. Little thought or effort is required to apply the chi square method to obtain quick and reasonable estimates of a solution, and the method offers a means to assess retrieval errors. Because the method is simple and practical it is sometimes hastily applied to problems that can be solved by formal analytic or quasi-analytic means. Presently, Global Atmospherics Inc. (GAI) finds the minimum of a chi square function to analyze time-of-arrival (TOA) and magnetic bearing data derived from the National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN); ellipsoidal Earth geometry is assumed. An analytic solution to this problem has not yet been attained, but the consideration and solving of less general problem statements might eventually lead to a final solution. In the present study, the problem of retrieving lightning ground-strike location on a spherical Earth surface using a network of 4 or more time-of-arrival (TOA) sensors is considered. It is shown that this problem has an analytic solution and therefore does not require the use of nonlinear estimation theory (such as the chi square method mentioned above). The mathematical robustness of the analytic solution is tested using computer-generated lightning sources and simulated TOA measurement errors. A quasi-analytic extension of the spherical Earth solution for an oblate spheroidal Earth geometry is considered in a related study. The incorporation of magnetic bearing information into these analytic solutions would lead to a general and elegant analytic retrieval scheme that would most likely replace the chi square estimation theory currently employed by Global Atmospherics Inc. (GAI).

Koshak, William J,↗
DOE OSTI2020

Survey of Current State of the Art Entity-Relation Extraction Tools

In the area of information extraction from text data, there exists a number of tools with the capability of extracting entities, topics, and their relationships with one another from both structured and unstructured text sources. Such information has endless uses in a number of domains, however, the solutions to getting this information are still in early stages and has room for improvement. The topic has been explored from a research perspective by academic institutions, as well as formal tool creation from corporations but has not made much advancement since the early 2000's. Overall, entity extraction, and the related topic of entity linking, is common among these tools, though with varying degrees of accuracy, while relationship extraction is more difficult to find and seems limited to same sentence analysis. In this report, we take a look at the top state of the art tools currently available and identify their capabilities, strengths, and weaknesses. We explore the common algorithms in the successful approaches to entity extraction and their ability to efficiently handle both structured and unstructured text data. Finally, we highlight some of the common issues among these tools and summarize the current ability to extract relationship information.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

2023 Critical Materials Strategy

The global effort to curb carbon emissions is accelerating demand for clean energy technologies and the materials they rely on. Demand for these materials will only continue to grow, especially as some nations aim to achieve net zero emissions by 2050. While some major materials like steel, copper, and aluminum are already powering the fossil fuel economy, others are more minor materials with potential supply risks. These risks could jeopardize the ability to reduce greenhouse gas emissions within the desirable timeframe to avoid significant climate change. In some cases, it may be necessary to take action to improve the resilience of material supply chains and mitigate supply risks. Understanding the importance of individual materials to clean energy and the supply risks associated with them is necessary to identify which materials may serve as potential roadblocks to a clean energy future. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) issued a series of 13 supply chain deep dive assessment reports on various energy technologies in 2022 in response to President Biden’s Executive Order on America’s Supply Chains (E.O. 14017). These reports emphasized that supply chain bottlenecks can occur at any stage of the value chain from mining and refining to component and even sub-system manufacturing. The bottlenecks are a combination of factors such as material availability, equipment availability, work force availability and quality, logistics, regulatory framework, and market conditions. These bottlenecks were worsened during the global Covid-19 pandemic. Its lingering impacts have hindered capacity expansion for material supply chains and prevented product lead-time recovery. One approach to reduce supply chain risks for the United States is to have a strong domestic manufacturing sector with a diverse set of producers. Boosting responsible domestic production would require leveraging the latest science not only in material extraction but also in developing substitutes, recycling, reuse, and remanufacturing. This report is an updated analysis of previous Critical Materials Strategy (CMS) reports published by the DOE in 2010, 2011, and 2019 based on national and global priorities, technology advancement, and technology adoption trends. Like the CMS reports, this analysis presents the results of a formal material criticality assessment to identify which materials are critical to the continued deployment of clean energy technologies globally. The analysis in this report leveraged the DOE supply chain deep dive assessments to develop the initial list of materials to evaluate. This DOE Critical Materials Assessment (CMA) is conducted independently of criticality assessments performed by other U.S. government agencies, such as that conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). This analysis complements the USGS critical minerals determination in three aspects. First, the DOE assessment is performed from a global perspective, while the USGS analysis focusses on the importance of minerals to the U.S. economy. Second, this report focuses on the importance of materials to clean energy technologies, rather than to the economy in general. Lastly, this study is forward looking to 2035 based on clean energy deployment scenarios, whereas the USGS assessment is retrospective. Materials evaluated in this report that do not appear in the USGS Critical Minerals List include copper, uranium, electrical steel, and SiC. A draft version of this report received ~80 public comments related to supporting data and methodological improvement. Those comments have been incorporated as much as possible where appropriate. Highlights of findings from this 2023 CMA include: Rare earth materials (neodymium, praseodymium, dysprosium, and terbium) used in magnets in electric vehicle (EV) motors and wind turbine generators continue to be critical. While dysprosium (Dy) and terbium (Tb) are both heavy rare earth elements that serve the same function in magnets, the criticality of Tb is slightly lower than that for Dy in the short term due to the widespread use of Dy in high-grade magnets and Tb’s present role as a substitute. Similarly, praseodymium (Pr) is critical in the medium term but only near critical in the short term because it is more substitutable in magnets than neodymium (Nd); Materials used in batteries for EVs and stationary storage are now considered to be critical. While cobalt (Co) was found to be critical in this and previous reports, lithium (Li) becomes critical in the medium term due to its broader use in various battery chemistries and the rampant growth of the EV industry. Natural graphite is a new addition in this assessment and is also found to be critical; Platinum group metals used in hydrogen electrolyzers, such as platinum (Pr) and iridium (Ir), are critical due to an increased focus on hydrogen technologies to achieve net zero carbon emissions, while those used in catalytic converters, such as rhodium (Rh) and palladium (Pd), were screened out due to the decreased importance of catalytic converters in the medium term; Gallium (Ga) continues to be critical due to its use in light-emitting diodes (LEDs). In addition, the use of Ga has increased in magnet manufacturing and in semiconductor in forms such as gallium arsenide (GaAs) or gallium nitride (GaN); Major materials like Aluminum (Al), copper (Cu), nickel (Ni), and silicon (Si) move from noncritical in the short term to near critical in the medium term due to their importance in electrification; Electrical steel is near critical due to its use in transformers for the grid and electric motors in EVs.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗