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At least 253 records · Page 14

Beta in Streamers

Streamers are often described as regions of the corona in which the density is higher than in coronal holes because the plasma is trapped by closed loops of magnetic flux. In contrast, Magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) models of the global corona show that the plasma beta identically equal to 8(pi)p/B(exp 2) > 1 in streamers above approximately 1.2Rs heliocentric height (p=pressure, B=magnetic field strength). There are three recent contributions to this topic. The first is that heating near the cusp further drives Beta up and can result in release of new slow solar wind from the top of the streamer. The second is SOHO/UVCS observations, in combination with a potential field/source surface model of the magnetic field, show beta > 1 above 1.2Rs in a streamer observed near solar sunspot minimum. The third is a magnetic field reconstruction technique (using field deforming algorithms) which was applied both to an isolated active region (AR 7999) and to the Pneuman & Kopp global MHD model. In the active region, beta becomes larger than unity at approximately 1.2Rs. In the Pneuman & Kopp model, beta = 1.0 at the base of the streamer and rises with increasing height, becoming 15-20 at 1.6Rs and 35-55 at 1.7RS. The collective implication of these three results is that beta > 1 everywhere in streamers above approximately 1.2 Rs. Global simulations go on to show that the reason streamers do not simply explode under such high beta conditions is that they are held down by pressure from the sides due to the magnetic fields (and low beta) in adjacent coronal holes. The main role of the closed magnetic loops near the cusp is to keep the streamer from continuously leaking plasma, as otherwise happens in a magnetic pinch which is similar but has no closed loops. The purpose of this note is to summarize the results implying that beta > 1 is a general property of streamers above 1.2 Rs.

Suess, Steven T.↗

Reconstructing Emission from Pre-Reionization Sources with Cosmic Infrared Background Fluctuation Measurements by the JWST

We present new methodology to use cosmic infrared background (CIB) fluctuations to probe sources at 10 less than or approx. equal to z less than or approx. equal to 30 from a James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) NIRCam configuration that will isolate known galaxies to 28 AB mag at 0.55 m. At present significant mutually consistent source-subtracted CIB fluctuations have been identified in the Spitzer and AKARI data at 25 m, but we demonstrate internal inconsistencies at shorter wavelengths in the recent CIBER data. We evaluate CIB contributions from remaining galaxies and show that the bulk of the high-z sources will be in the confusion noise of the NIRCam beam, requiring CIB studies. The accurate measurement of the angular spectrum of the fluctuations and probing the dependence of its clustering component on the remaining shot noise power would discriminate between the various currently proposed models for their origin and probe the flux distribution of its sources. We show that the contribution to CIB fluctuations from remaining galaxies is large at visible wavelengths for the current instruments precluding probing the putative Lyman-break of the CIB fluctuations. We demonstrate that with the proposed JWST configuration such measurements will enable probing the Lyman-break. We develop a Lyman-break tomography method to use the NIRCam wavelength coverage to identify or constrain, via the adjacent two-band subtraction, the history of emissions over 10 less than or approx. equal to z less than or approx. equal to 30 as the universe comes out of the Dark Ages. We apply the proposed tomography to the current SpitzerIRAC measurements at 3.6 and 4.5 m, to find that it already leads to interestingly low upper limit on emissions at z greater than or approx. equal to 30.

NIRCam beam↗

Mars2020 Entry, Descent, and Landing Instrumentation (MEDLI2): Science Objectives and Instrument Requirements

NASAs exploration and technology roadmaps call for capability advancements in Mars entry, descent, and landing (EDL) systems to enable increased landed mass, a higher landing precision, and a wider planetary access. It is also recognized that these ambitious EDL performance goals must be met while maintaining a low mission risk in order to pave the way for future human missions. As NASA is engaged in developing new EDL systems and technologies via testing at Earth, instrumentation of existing Mars missions is providing valuable engineering data for performance improvement, risk reduction, and an improved definition of entry loads and environment. The most notable recent example is the Mars Entry, Descent and Landing Instrument (MEDLI) suite hosted by Mars Science Laboratory for its entry in Aug 2012. The MEDLI suite provided a comprehensive dataset for Mars entry aerodynamics, aerothermodynamics and thermal protection system (TPS) performance. MEDLI data has since been used for unprecedented reconstruction of aerodynamic drag, vehicle attitude, in-situ atmospheric density, aerothermal heating, and transition to turbulence, in-depth TPS performance and TPS ablation. [1,2] In addition to validating predictive models, MEDLI data has demonstrated extra margin available in the MSL forebody TPS, which can potentially be used to reduce vehicle parasitic mass. The presentation will introduce a follow-on MEDLI instrumentation suite (called MEDLI2) that is being developed for Mars-2020 mission. MEDLI2 has an enhanced scope that includes backshell instrumentation, a wider forebody coverage, and instruments that specifically target supersonic aerodynamics. Similar to MEDLI, MEDLI2 uses thermal plugs with embedded thermocouples and ports through the TPS to measure surface pressure. MEDLI2, however, also includes heat flux sensors in the backshell and a low range pressure transducer to measure afterbody pressure.

Aerothermodynamics↗

Using the Coronal Evolution to Successfully Forward Model CMEs' In Situ Magnetic Profiles

Predicting the effects of a coronal mass ejection (CME) impact requires knowing if impact will occur, which part of the CME impacts, and its magnetic properties. We explore the relation between CME deflections and rotations, which change the position and orientation of a CME, and the resulting magnetic profiles at 1 AU. For 45 STEREO-era, Earth-impacting CMEs, we determine the solar source of each CME, reconstruct its coronal position and orientation, and perform a ForeCAT (Forecasting a CME's Altered Trajectory) simulation of the coronal deflection and rotation. From the reconstructed and modeled CME deflections and rotations, we determine the solar cycle variation and correlations with CME properties. We assume no evolution between the outer corona and 1 AU and use the ForeCAT results to drive the ForeCAT In situ Data Observer (FIDO) in situ magnetic field model, allowing for comparisons with ACE and Wind observations. We do not attempt to reproduce the arrival time. On average FIDO reproduces the in situ magnetic field for each vector component with an error equivalent to 35 percent of the average total magnetic field strength when the total modeled magnetic field is scaled to match the average observed value. Random walk best fits distinguish between ForeCAT's ability to determine FIDO's input parameters and the limitations of the simple flux rope model. These best fits reduce the average error to 30 percent.The FIDO results are sensitive to changes of order a degree in the CME latitude, longitude, and tilt, suggesting that accurate space weather predictions require accurate measurements of a CME's position and orientation.

Kay, C.↗

Proposal to Simultaneously Profile Wind and CO2 on Earth and Mars With 2-micron Pulsed Lidar Technologies

2-micron lidar technology has been in use and under continued improvement for many years toward wind measurements. But the 2-micron wavelength region is also rich in absorption lines of CO2 (and H2O to a lesser extent) that can be exploited with the differential absorption lidar (DIAL) technique to make species concentration measurements. A coherent detection receiver offers the possibility of making combined wind and DIAL measurements with wind derived from frequency shift of the backscatter spectrum and species concentration derived from power of the backscatter spectrum. A combined wind and CO2 measurement capability is of interest for applications on both Earth and Mars. CO2 measurements in the Earth atmosphere are of importance to studies of the global carbon cycle. Data on vertically-resolved CO2 profiles over large geographical observations areas are of particular interest that could potentially be made by deploying a lidar on an aircraft or satellite. By combining CO2 concentration with wind measurements an even more useful data product could be obtained in the calculation of CO2 flux. A challenge to lidar in this application is that CO2 concentration measurements must be made with a high level of precision and accuracy to better than 1%. The Martian atmosphere also presents wind and CO2 measurement problems that could be met with a combined DIAL/Doppler lidar. CO2 concentration in this scenario would be used to calculate atmospheric density since the Martian atmosphere is composed of 95% CO2. The lack of measurements of Mars atmospheric density in the 30-60 km range, dust storm formation and movements, and horizontal wind patterns in the 0-20 km range pose significant risks to aerocapture, and entry, descent, and landing of future robotic and human Mars missions. Systematic measurement of the Mars atmospheric density and winds will be required over several Mars years, supplemented with day-of-entry operational measurements. To date, there have been 5 successful robotic landings on Mars. Atmospheric density and wind reconstruction has been performed for 3 of these entries (the two Viking landers and Mars Pathfinder). At present, all Mars atmospheric density and wind models have these 3 entries (at widely scattered positions and seasons) as their basis, supplemented by coarse orbital measurements of atmospheric opacity and temperature. This lack of data leads to a large uncertainty in prediction of the Mars atmospheric density and winds in the altitude regime where deceleration of landers will occur. This uncertainty will have a dramatically large impact on mass, cost and risk. The precision and accuracy for application to Mars is not as stringent as Earth, but Mars does pose a challenge in needing a high level of wavelength stability and control in order to reference wavelength to the narrow linewidths found in the low atmospheric pressure of Mars, as illustrated in Figure 1.

Singh, Upendra N.↗

Investigation of Long-Term Impacts of Urbanization when Considering Global Warming for a Coastal Tropical Region

The overachieving goal of this project is to gain a better understanding of the climate impacts caused by the combined effects of land cover and land use (LCLU) changes and increasing global concentrations of green house gases (GHG) in tropical coastal areas, regions where global, regional and local climate phenomena converge, taking as the test case the densely populated northeast region of the Caribbean island of Puerto Rico. The research uses an integrated approach of high-resolution remote sensing information linked to a high resolution Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS), which was employed to perform ensembles of climate simulations (combining 2-LCLU and 2-GHG concentration scenarios). Reconstructed agricultural maps are used to define past LCLU, and combined with reconstructed sea surface temperatures (SST) for the same period form the PAST climate scenario (1951-1956); while the PRESENT scenario (2000-2004) was additionally supported by high resolution remote sensing data (10-m-res). The climate reconstruction approach is validated with available observed climate data from surface weather stations for both periods of time simulated. The selection of the past and present climate scenarios considers large-scale biases (i.e. ENSO/NAO) as reflected in the region of interest. Direct and cross comparison of the results is allowing quantifying single, combined, and competitive effects. Results indicate that global GHG have dominant effects on minimum temperatures (following regional tendencies), while urban sprawl dominates maximum temperatures. To further investigate impacts of land use the Bowen Ratio and the thermal response number (TRN) are analyzed. The Bowen ratio indicates that forestation of past agricultural high areas have an overwhelmingly mitigation effect on increasing temperatures observed in different LCLU scenarios, but when abandoned agricultural lands are located in plains, the resulting shrub/grass lands produce higher surface temperatures. The TRN (J/m^2/degC) is a surface property defined as the ratio of the surface net radiation to the rate of change in surface temperature, expresses how those fluxes are reacting to radiant energy inputs. Natural vegetated surfaces have a greater TRN than urban and barren surfaces because the net radiation processed by them is mostly used for latent heat and thermal storage heat rather than sensible heat (heating the air). Significant changes in TRN were observed in the metropolitan area of San Juan for the two analyzed periods reflecting a reduction of this variable in the present from the past consistent with increasing in thermal mass, or intense urbanization.

Gonalez, Jorge E.↗

Reconstructing Subgrid Cloud Variability Guided by CloudSat/CALIPSO Observations

Predicting realistic cloud subgrid variability remains a challenge for Global Climate Models (GCMs) even though it can play an important role for proper representation of processes pertaining to cloud microphysics, precipitation, and radiation, but also for comparisons with satellite observations which are of much higher resolution than model grids. The diagnostic approach of subgrid cloud variability is commonly handled by subcolumn cloud generators. For a specific GCM, one ideally wants the subgrid variability used for comparisons with satellite observations to be created by the same generator and with the same rules as the one used for model integration. With this in mind, we have embarked in an effort to test and improve cloud subcolumn generators appropriate for GCMs. For this purpose, we use cloud (hydrometeor) products from active observations by the CloudSat radar (CPR) and the CALIPSO lidar (CALIOP). Cloud products from active sensors while suffering significant sampling and coverage drawbacks have the advantage of resolving both horizontal and vertical variability. The main question is: given a profile of cloud condensate mean and variance, can we create a subgrid cloud field that is statistically similar to the observed subgrid cloud field? By “statistically”, we suggest that we do not aspire to reproduce “well” each individual subgrid cloud field of a GCM-scale region, but that our generator performs well for a large ensemble of cases. We simulate radar, passive imager, and radiation flux fields from the observed 2D cloud fields and create one-point statistics; we use the profiles of cloud condensate mean and variance as input to the generator to create subgrid cloud fields; we compare the statistics; we adjust the rules of the generator to create the best possible agreement between the radar, imager and radiation field statistics. In this process, the active observations have actually a dual role: they provide the actual subgrid cloud field which can be reduced to a profile of mean and variance used by the subcolumn generator, but they also provide the rules needed by the generator, such as measures (e.g, decorrelation length) of the vertical overlap of cloud fraction and of the condensate horizontal variability. This presentation will show our progress using Cloudsat and CALIPSO products in this dual fashion.

cloud↗

Reconstructing Subgrid Cloud Variability Guided by CloudSat/CALIPSO Observations

Predicting realistic cloud subgrid variability remains a challenge for Global Climate Models (GCMs) even though it can play an important role for proper representation of processes pertaining to cloud microphysics, precipitation, and radiation, but also for comparisons with satellite observations which are of much higher resolution than model grids. The diagnostic approach of subgrid cloud variability is commonly handled by subcolumn cloud generators. For a specific GCM, one ideally wants the subgrid variability used for comparisons with satellite observations to be created by the same generator and with the same rules as the one used for model integration. With this in mind, we have embarked in an effort to test and improve cloud subcolumn generators appropriate for GCMs. For this purpose, we use cloud (hydrometeor) products from active observations by the CloudSat radar (CPR) and the CALIPSO lidar (CALIOP). Cloud products from active sensors while suffering signi􀂦cant sampling and coverage drawbacks have the advantage of resolving both horizontal and vertical variability. The main question is: given a profile of cloud condensate mean and variance, can we create a subgrid cloud field that is statistically similar to the observed subgrid cloud field? By “statistically”, we suggest that we do not aspire to reproduce “well” each individual subgrid cloud field of a GCM-scale region, but that our generator performs well for a large ensemble of cases. We simulate radar, passive imager, and radiation flux fields from the observed 2D cloud fields and create one-point statistics; we use the profiles of cloud condensate mean and variance as input to the generator to create subgrid cloud fields; we compare the statistics; we adjust the rules of the generator to create the best possible agreement between the radar, imager and radiation field statistics. In this process, the active observations have actually a dual role: they provide the actual subgrid cloud field which can be reduced to a profile of mean and variance used by the subcolumn generator, but they also provide the rules needed by the generator, such as measures (e.g, decorrelation length) of the vertical overlap of cloud fraction and of the condensate horizontal variability. This presentation will show our progress using Cloudsat and CALIPSO products in this dual fashion.

clouds↗

Al-26 production profile and model comparisons in Canyon Diablo

The large preatmospheric size of the Canyon Diablo meteorite, a radius of about 15 m, makes it especially suitable for systematic studies of cosmogenic nuclide production rates of iron objects in a 2 pi geometry. To reconstruct the exposure history of the meteoroid, Heymann et al. investigated several fragments recovered from known geographic locations around the crater for their shock features and cosmogenic nobel gases. They applied the Signer-Nier noble gas production rate model to establish the preatmospheric depth of the specimens in the meteoroid. Cosmic ray exposure ages suggested a multi-episodic irradiation, with 170 or 540 Ma being inferred for most of the samples studied while two anomalous specimens indicated a possible third exposure age at 940 Ma. Be-10 and Cl-36 have been measured in a number of these same samples by accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS), with use being made of the preatmospheric depths determined in Heymann et al. to construct production profiles. The present study extends the cosmogenic radionuclide data to Al-26 and compares the results with both the production rate model of Reedy and Arnold and production rates determined from the cross sections used by the Reedy-Arnold model (for the major nuclear reactions making Al-26) in combination with differential fluxes calculated using the Los Alamos High Energy Transport (LAHET) Code System. Model calculations for Be-10 and Cl-36 have also been obtained.

Michlovich, E.↗

Solar Flare X-Ray Source Motion as a Response to Electron Spectral Hardening

Context. Solar flare hard X-rays (HXRs) are thought to be produced by nonthermal coronal electrons stopping in the chromosphere, or remaining trapped in the corona. The collisional thick target model (CTTM) predicts that more energetic electrons penetrate to greater column depths along the flare loop. This requires that sources produced by harder power-law injection spectra should appear further down the legs or footpoints of a flareloop. Therefore, the frequently observed hardening of the injected power-law electron spectrum during flare onset should be concurrent with a descending hard X-ray source. Aims. To test this implication of the CTTM by comparing its predicted HXR source locations with those derived from observations of a solar flare which exhibits a nonthermally-dominated spectrum before the peak in HXRs, known as an early impulsive event. Methods. HXR images and spectra of an early impulsive C-class flare were obtained using the Ramaty High-Energy Solar Spectroscopic Imager (RHESSI). Images were reconstructed to produce HXR source height evolutions for three energy bands. Spatially-integrated spectral analysis was performed to isolate nonthermal emission, and to determine the power-law index of the electron injection spectrum. The observed height-time evolutions were then fit with CTTM-based simulated heights for each energy, using the electron spectral indices derived from the RHESSI spectra. Results. The flare emission was found to be dominantly nonthermal above approx. 7 keV, with emission of thermal and nonthermal X-rays likely to be simultaneously observable below that energy. The density structure required for a good match between model and observed source heights agreed with previous studies of flare loop densities. Conclusions. The CTTM has been used to produce a descent of model HXR source heights that compares well with observations of this event. Based on this interpretation, downward motion of nonthermal sources should indeed occur in any flare where there is spectral hardening in the electron distribution during a flare. However, this would often be masked by thermal emission associated with flare plasma pre-heating. As yet, flare models that predict transfer of energy from the corona to the chromosphere by means other than a flux of nonthermal electrons do not predict this observed source descent. Therefore, flares such as this will be key in explaining this elusive energy transfer process.

X-rays↗

Constructing the Coronal Magnetic Field: by Correlating Parameterized Magnetic Field Lines with Observed Coronal Plasma Structures

The reconstruction of the coronal magnetic field is carried out using a perturbation procedure. A set of magnetic field lines generated from magnetogram data is parameterized and then deformed by varying the parameterized values. The coronal fluxtubes associated with this field are adjusted until the correlation between the field lines and the observed coronal loops is maximized. A mathematical formulation is described which ensures (1) that the normal component of the photospheric field remains unchanged, (2) that the field is given in the entire corona, (3) that the field remains divergence free, and (4) that electrical currents are introduced into the field. It is demonstrated that a simple radial parameterization of a potential field, comprising a radial stretching of the field, can provide a match for a simple bipolar active region, AR 7999, which crossed the central meridian on 1996 Nov 26. At a coronal height of 30 km, the resulting magnetic field is a non-force free magnetic field with the maximum Lorentz force being on the order of 2.6 x 10(exp -9) dyn resulting from an electric current density of $0.13 mu A/ sq m. This scheme is an important tool in generating a magnetic field solution consistent with the coronal flux tube observations and the observed photospheric magnetic field.

Gary, G. A.↗

Improving the MODIS LAI Compositing Using Prior Time-Series Information

The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) long-term leaf area index (LAI) products have significantly contributed to global energy fluxes, climate change, and biogeochemistry research. However, the maximum fraction of photosynthetically active radiation absorbed by vegetation (Max-FPAR) compositing strategy of the Collection 6 (C6) products dictates that the main or backup algorithm is always triggered by observations of different quality, which indirectly causes the observed instability in the LAI time-series. Based on MODIS daily LAI retrievals, this study develops a prior knowledge time-series compositing algorithm (PKA) using a linear kernel driven (LKD) model. Our results show that the newly proposed PKA can significantly improve the LAI composites compared to the Max-FPAR strategy using ground-based observations for validation. We found that the PKA performs better than Max-FPAR in various aspects (different sites, seasons, and retrieval index (RI) ranges), with R2 increasing from 0.69 to 0.76 and root means square error (RMSE) decreasing from 1.01 to 0.84 compared to GBOV ground truth. The same improvement was shown for the ground truth LAIs measured at the Honghe and Hailun sites in northeastern China, with R2 increasing from 0.23 to 0.41 and RMSE decreasing from 1.27 to 1.25. In addition, three newly proposed temporal uncertainty metrics (time-series stability, TSS and time-series anomaly, TSA and reconstruction error metric, RE (the proximity to the main RT-based retrievals)) were applied to compare the stability of LAI time-series before and after PKA implementation. We found that the time series stability of PKA LAI was improved, the time series anomalies were reduced, and the retrieval rates of the main algorithm were also greatly enhanced compared to Max-FPAR LAI. A case intercomparison for Max-FPAR-MODIS, Max-FPAR-VIIRS (Visible Infrared Imager Radiometer Suite), and PKA-MODIS LAIs in the Amazon Forest region showed that the PKA is also effective in improving the LAI retrieval over large regions with few qualified observations due to poor atmospheric conditions (RE decreased from 2.37/2.35 (Max-FPAR-MODIS/Max-FPAR-VIIRS) to 2.25 (PKA-MODIS) and RI increased from 61.94%/59.62% to 66.88%). The same improvement was seen in the BELMANIP 2.1 sites for almost all biomes except deciduous broadleaf forest, where the RE decreased from 1.85/2.13 to 1.15 overall. We note that the PKA has the potential to be easily implemented in the operational algorithms of subsequent MODIS and MODIS-like LAI Collections.

MODIS↗

Experimental Investigation of the Distribution of Shock Effects in Regolith Impact Ejecta Using an Ejecta Recovery Chamber

Because the mass-flux of solar system meteoroids is concentrated in the approx. 200 microns size range, small-scale impacts play a key role in driving the space weathering of regoliths on airless bodies. Quantifying this role requires improved data linking the mass, density and velocity of the incoming impactors to the nature of the shock effects produced, with particular emphasis on effects, such as production of impact melt and vapor, that drive the optical changes seen in space weathered regoliths. Of particular importance with regard to space weathering is understanding not only the composition of the shock melt created in small-scale impacts, but also how it is partitioned volumetrically between the local impact site and more widely distributed ejecta. To improve the ability of hypervelocity impact experiments to obtain this type of information, we have developed an enclosed sample target chamber with multiple-geometry interior capture cells for in-situ retention of ejecta from granular targets. A key design objective was to select and test capture cell materials that could meet three requirements: 1) Capture ejecta fragments traveling at various trajectories and velocities away from the impact point, while inducing minimal additional damage relative to the primary shock effects; 2) facilitate follow-up characterization of the ejecta either on or in the cell material by analytical SEM, or ex-situ by microprobe, TEM and other methods; and 3) enable the trajectories of the captured and characterized ejecta to be reconstructed relative to the target.

Christoffersen, R.↗

Argon Isotopic Constraints on Planetary Degassing and the Evolution of Earth's Atmosphere: Insights from K-bearing Phases

An enduring question in planetary science is the nature of volatile degassing from rocky planets during their evolution. The reactive nature of planetary volatiles (e.g. H2O, CO2, N, H) make them difficult to directly track through time. Noble gases, like argon, can act as passive tracers of planetary processes, with isotopic ratios providing clues on planetary volatile inventories and fluxes. Previous studies [e.g. 1, 2] use Earth’s argon degassing history to constrain the growth of continental crust. However, that record is limited to the modern 40Ar/36Ar ratio of 298.56 [3] and three time slices recorded in hydrothermal quartz of the Archean Dresser formation [1]: from ~143 (3.5 Ga) to ~212 (2.7 Ga). Due to the paucity of data, partly a result of using nominally K-free minerals, the temporal evolution of atmospheric 40Ar/36Ar remains poorly constrained. K-bearing phases from igneous rocks, forming at high temperature and upper mantle or crustal conditions, are rarely considered viable for recording ancient atmospheric 40Ar/36Ar values. We show that this possible and a potential path to more precise records of ancient atmosphere by leveraging the radiogenic endmember of isotope correlation diagrams. An isochron of coeval biotite grains from the Bushveld Complex [4], with little indication of alteration or excess 40Ar, yield an initial 40Ar/36Ar value that matches the atmospheric 40Ar/36Ar value of ~228 at 2055 Ma in the model of [2]. In addition, new multi-mineral data from the Palisade Sill also match the modelled 40Ar/36Ar value of ~293 at 202 Ma, providing another tie point in the late Triassic. Combined, the Bushveld and Palisades samples provide two new constraints on the ancient atmosphere and help define the history of planetary degassing. These results demonstrate the possibility of accurately and precisely obtaining atmospheric information from igneous rocks, not exclusively K-free phases, thus providing a surplus of ways to reconstruct planetary atmospheres and processes. A robust atmospheric 40Ar/36Ar history also has practical uses and we explore the systematic offsets that arise from using a modern 40Ar/36Ar value in 40Ar/39Ar age calculations of old samples.

J. B. Setera↗

Towards an Indian Land Data Assimilation System (ILDAS): A Coupled Hydrologic-Hydraulic System for Water Balance Assessments

Effective management of water resources requires reliable estimates of land surface states and fluxes, including water balance components. But most land surface models run in uncoupled mode and do not produce river discharge at catchment scales to be useful for water resources management applications. Such integrated systems are also rare over India where hydrometeorological extremes have wreaked havoc on the economy and people. So, an Indian Land Data Assimilation System (ILDAS) with a coupled land surface and a hydrodynamic model has been developed and driven by multiple meteorological forcings (0.1°, daily) to estimate land surface states, channel discharge, and floodplain inundation. ILDAS benefits from an integrated framework as well as the largest suite of observation records collected over India and has been used to produce a reanalysis product for 1981–2021 using four forcing datasets, namely, Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2), Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station data (CHIRPS), ECMWF’s ERA-5, and Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) gridded precipitation. We assessed the uncertainty and bias in these precipitation datasets and validated all major components of the terrestrial water balance, i.e., surface runoff, soil moisture, terrestrial water storage anomalies, evapotranspiration, and streamflow, against a combination of satellite and in situ observation datasets. Our assessment shows that ILDAS can represent the hydrological processes reasonably well over the Indian landmass with IMD precipitation showing the best relative performance. Evaluation against ESA-CCI soil moisture shows that MERRA-2 based estimates outperform the others, whereas ERA-5 performs best in simulating evapotranspiration when evaluated against MODIS ET. Evaluations against observed records show that CHIRPS-based estimates have the highest performance in reconstructing surface runoff and streamflow. Once operational, this system will be useful for supporting transboundary water management decision making in the region.

Indian Land Data Assimilation System (ILDAS)↗

The Orbiting Wide-Angle Light Collectors (OWL) Mission for Charged-Particle Astronomy

The space-based OWL mission is designed to perform high-statistics measurements of ultra-high-energy cosmic rays (UHECR) using the Earth's atmosphere as a vast particle calorimeter, furthering the field of charged-particle astronomy. OWL has been developed in formal NASA instrument and mission studies and is comprised of two large telescopes separated by approx.600 km in 1000 km, near-equatorial orbits to stereoscopically image the near-UV air fluorescence emitted by UHECR-induced particle cascades. The High Resolution Fly's Eye (HiRes) Collaboration, and subsequently the Pierre Auger Observatory, recently reported confirmation of the expected Greisen-Zatsepin-Kuzmin (GZK) suppression of the UHECR flux above a few times 10(exp 19) eV. This observation is consistent with the majority of UHECR originating in astrophysical objects and reduces the need to invoke exotic physical processes. Particles observed above the GZK threshold energy must have come from sources within about 100 Mpc from the Earth. The small particle deflection angles expected at UHECR energies, with standard assumptions of extragalactic magnetic fields, are on the order of 1 degree. Thus by observing particles above the GZK threshold with sufficient exposure, there is the potential of identifying and characterizing individual UHECR sources. Auger has reported significant anisotropy in the arrival directions of UHECR at energies above about 6 10(exp 19) eV observed in the South, and a correlation to AGN in the 12th VCV catalog, suggesting that the sources of UHECR are traced by the distribution of luminous matter in the Universe. However, with similar statistics and the same event selection criteria, HiRes observations in the North are consistent with isotropy. Extended observations by Auger-South, by Telescope Array in the North, and possibly by the proposed Auger-North, will further these investigations. However, much greater exposures will be required to fully identify individual sources and measure their cosmic ray spectra. A five-year OWL mission would deliver approximately 10(exp 6)sq km/sr/yr of exposure with full aperture reached at approx. 10(exp 19) eV. The baseline 3 m optical aperture OWL telescopes with 45 degree full field-of-view are easily accomodated on a single conventional launch vehicle. On orbit, the simultaneous viewing of the same volume of atmosphere allows for precise stereo event reconstruction, which is nearly independent of the inclination of the particle track and tolerant of atmospheric conditions. The availability of monocular operation provides increased reliability or can be employed to increase the instantaneous aperture. In stereo mode, OWL is also capable of fully reconstructing horizontal or upward-moving showers and so has unmatched sensitivity to neutrino-induced events. The details of the OWL mission will he presented and its science capabilities will be discussed.

Mitchell, John↗

Magnetosphere Dynamics During the 14 November 2012 Storm Inferred from TWINS, AMPERE, Van Allen Probes, and BATS-R-US-CRCM

During the 14 November 2012 geomagnetic storm, the Van Allen Probes spacecraft observed a number of sharp decreases ('dropouts') in particle fluxes for ions and electrons of different energies. In this paper, we investigate the global magnetosphere dynamics and magnetosphere- ionosphere (M-I) coupling during the dropout events using multipoint measurements by Van Allen Probes, TWINS, and AMPERE together with the output of the two-way coupled global BATS-R-US-CRCM model. We find different behavior for two pairs of dropouts. For one pair, the same pattern was repeated: (1) weak nightside Region 1 and 2 Birkeland currents before and during the dropout; (2) intensification of Region 2 currents after the dropout; and (3) a particle injection detected by TWINS after the dropout. The model predicted similar behavior of Birkeland currents. TWINS low-altitude emissions demonstrated high variability during these intervals, indicating high geomagnetic activity in the near-Earth tail region. For the second pair of dropouts, the structure of both Birkeland currents and ENA emissions was relatively stable. The model also showed quasi-stationary behavior of Birkeland currents and simulated ENA emissions with gradual ring current buildup. We confirm that the first pair of dropouts was caused by large-scale motions of the OCB (open-closed boundary) during substorm activity. We show the new result that this OCB motion was associated with global changes in Birkeland (M-I coupling) currents and strong modulation of low-altitude ion precipitation. The second pair of dropouts is the result of smaller OCB disturbances not related to magnetospheric substorms. The local observations of the first pair of dropouts result from a global magnetospheric reconfiguration, which is manifested by ion injections and enhanced ion precipitation detected by TWINS and changes in the structure of Birkeland currents detected by AMPERE. This study demonstrates that multipoint measurements along with the global model results enable the reconstruction of a more complete system-level picture of the dropout events and provides insight into M-I coupling aspects that have not previously been investigated.

Buzulukova, Natalia↗

The Effects of Solar Variability on Earth's Climate: A Workshop Report

Solar irradiance, the flux of the Sun s output directed toward Earth, is Earth s main energy source.1 The Sun itself varies on several timescales over billions of years its luminosity increases as it evolves on the main sequence toward becoming a red giant; about every 11 years its sunspot activity cycles; and within just minutes flares can erupt and release massive amounts of energy. Most of the fluctuations from tens to thousands of years are associated with changes in the solar magnetic field. The focus of the National Research Council's September 2011 workshop on solar variability and Earth's climate, and of this summary report, is mainly magnetically driven variability and its possible connection with Earth's climate variations in the past 10,000 years. Even small variations in the amount or distribution of energy received at Earth can have a major influence on Earth's climate when they persist for decades. However, no satellite measurements have indicated that solar output and variability have contributed in a significant way to the increase in global mean temperature in the last 50 years. Locally, however, correlations between solar activity and variations in average weather may stand out beyond the global trend; such has been argued to be the case for the El Nino-Southern Oscillation, even in the present day. A key area of inquiry deals with establishing a unified record of the solar output and solar-modified particles that extends from the present to the prescientific past. The workshop focused attention on the need for a better understanding of the links between indices of solar activity such as cosmogenic isotopes and solar irradiance. A number of presentations focused on the timescale of the solar cycle and of the satellite record, and on the problem of extending this record back in time. Highlights included a report of progress on pyroheliometer calibration, leading to greater confidence in the time history and future stability of total solar irradiance (TSI), and surprising results on changes in spectral irradiance over the last solar cycle, which elicited spirited discussion. New perspectives on connections between features of the quiet and active areas of the photosphere and variations in TSI were also presented, emphasizing the importance of developing better understanding in order to extrapolate back in time using activity indices. Workshop participants reviews highlighted difficulties as well as causes for optimism in current understanding of the cosmogenic isotope record and the use of observed variability in Sun-like stars in reconstructing variations in TSI occurring on lower frequencies than the sunspot cycle. The workshop succeeded in bringing together informed, focused presentations on major drivers of the Sun-climate connection. The importance of the solar cycle as a unique quasi-periodic probe of climate responses on a timescale between the seasonal and Milankovitch cycles was recognized in several presentations. The signal need only be detectable, not dominant, for it to play this role of a useful probe. Some workshop participants also found encouraging progress in the top-down perspective, according to which solar variability affects surface climate by first perturbing the stratosphere, which then forces the troposphere and surface. This work is now informing and being informed by research on tropospheric responses to the Antarctic ozone hole and volcanic aerosols. In contrast to the top-down perspective is the bottom-up view that the interaction of solar energy with the ocean and surface leads to changes in dynamics and temperature. During the discussion of how dynamical air-sea coupling in the tropical Pacific and solar variability interact from a bottom-up perspective, several participants remarked on the wealth of open research questions in the dynamics of the climatic response to TSI and spectral variability. The discussion of the paleoclimate record emphasized that the link between solar varbility and Earth s climate is multifaceted and that some components are understood better than others. According to two presenters on paleoclimate, there is a need to study the idiosyncrasies of each key proxy record. Yet they also emphasized that there may be an emerging pattern of paleoclimate change coincident with periods of solar activity and inactivity, but only on long timescales of multiple decades to millennia. Several speakers discussed the effects of particle events and cosmic-ray variability. These are all areas of exciting fundamental research; however, they have not yet led to conclusive evidence for significant related climate effects. The key problem of attribution of climate variability on the timescales of the Little Ice Age and the Maunder Minimum were directly addressed in several presentations. Several workshop participants remarked that the combination of solar, paleoclimatic, and climate modeling research has the potential to dramatically improve the credibility of these attribution studies.

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