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At least 253 records · Page 14
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

A System-Level Model for Estimating Residual Strain and Life of Nuclear Reactor Coolant System Components Under Connected-System-Thermal–Mechanical Boundary Conditions

Background: Environmental-assisted fatigue (EAF) is a major issue for the long-term survival of nuclear power plant fleets in the U.S. and worldwide. Multi-material welded regions (e.g., nozzles) and other high-stress regions of reactor coolant system (RCS) components are prone to EAF-related damage. Objective: The discussed work describes a system-level finite element (FE) model of RCS components of a pressurized water reactor (PWR). This is with the goal of predicting the stress hotspots, strain residuals, strain amplitudes and the resulting fatigue lives. Methods: Herein, the FE model was developed considering system-level loading conditions (under connected system thermal-mechanical boundary conditions). Thermal-mechanical stress analysis was performed considering thermal stratification and a design-basis reactor loading cycle. Based on the FE model results, the strain residuals, strain amplitudes and resulting fatigue lives of RCS components were predicted. Results: The results show that some of the RCS components can have significantly different strain amplitudes, residual strain, and fatigue lives, despite having similar geometry and material. Higher residual strain can lead to accelerated cyclic hardening of material and the associated effect of EAF. The simulated component-level strain profile (under realistic multi-axial-multi-physics loading cycle) can guide the selection of appropriate test inputs for conducting laboratory-scale EAF tests, which is a focus of future works. Conclusions: Despite similar geometry and material the RCS component can have significantly different strain profiles and resulting fatigue lives. The discussed approach can help to identify and prioritize the RCS components for conducting expensive nondestructive evaluation (NDE) inspections.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Recent Advances in Pipeline Integrity for Transporting Blended Hydrogen-Natural Gas

To achieve US decarbonization goals, hydrogen is being considered as an alternative energy source to reduce carbon emissions. Blending hydrogen into existing natural gas pipelines is an intuitive first step to enable near term emission reductions. However, there are numerous challenges and uncertainties that complicate the transition to transporting hydrogen long-distance through existing natural gas pipelines. The main challenge is hydrogen embrittlement (HE), which reduces the ductility, fracture toughness and fatigue resistance of pipeline steels. This work delivers a technical review on HE effects on the material properties of pipeline carbon steels, such as Grade B, X52, X65, X70, X80, and X100. An important aspect of laboratory tests to capture the HE effect is the hydrogen test environment. This includes hydrogen pre-charged specimens tested in air and specimens tested in a hydrogen gas environment. A review of the mechanical properties of pipeline steel in different hydrogen environments determined through tensile testing is given first, which includes HE effects on yield strength, ultimate tensile strength, and ductility for blended hydrogen-natural gas pipelines. Then, the HE effects on fracture toughness and fatigue crack growth resistance are discussed. Last, impacts of HE to pipeline integrity and major technical challenges are discussed.

: Hydrogen Embrittlement↗
DOE OSTI2023

Development of process parameters and post-build conditions for qualification of LPBF 316 SS

To harness the potential of laser powder bed fusion (LPBF) 316H stainless steel (SS) for use in advanced nuclear reactors, extensive research efforts are needed to develop optimal laser processing parameters and appropriate heat treatments, taking into account various manufacturing platforms and locations. Furthermore, it is crucial to assess the material properties in environments relevant to reactor operating conditions. In collaboration with Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) and Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) is dedicated to gaining insights into how the manufacturing process and post-build treatments impact the performance of LPBF 316H SS. This report provides an overview of ANL's research findings for FY23, focusing on LPBF 316H SS produced using a Renishaw AM400 laser system. Specifically, our research has concentrated on three key areas: 1) Optimum laser processing parameters: Leveraging the high-throughput printing technology, we systematically varied the laser power, exposure time and point distance within the same build. By measuring the as-printed porosity, we identified an optimum printing parameter window that produced materials with near-complete density; 2) Post-built treatment development: Materials printed with the optimum laser parameters underwent treatments including stress relief, solution annealing, and hot isostatic pressing. Subsequently, we fabricated tension, creep, and fatigue specimens from materials subjected to these different conditions. Over the next year, a series of scoping tests will be conducted to facilitate the selection of the most suitable post-build treatment condition; 3) Thermal aging effects on microstructure and properties: thermal aging at 550°C, 650°C and 750°C was conducted on LPBF 316H SS specimens up to 2500 h. Microstructural characterization was performed with electron microscopy, and the evolution of the dislocation cell structures and secondary phases was studied. Microhardness tests and tension tests were conducted to quantify changes in mechanical properties. The results revealed that the aged LPBF 316H SS exhibited a high density of Cr-rich and Mo-rich fine precipitates within grains due to the presence of a high density of dislocations and the globally distributed dislocation cell structures, which served as heterogeneous nucleation sites for secondary phases. Along grain boundaries, a Mo-Cr-rich phase, observed in 750°C-aged conditions, displayed significant thermal coarsening. Throughout the aging process, various mechanisms, including stress relaxation, dislocation cell structure recovery, solution hardening, and precipitation hardening, competed to influence materials strength. These results contribute towards establishing the technical basis for qualifying LPBF 316H SS for advanced nuclear reactor applications.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Modeling low cycle fatigue (LCF) of additively manufactured Hastelloy X using An accelerated crystal plasticity fatigue damage model

This paper presents a microstructure-based model for low cycle fatigue (LCF) behavior and life of Nickel-based alloy Hastelloy X manufactured using laser-powder bed fusion (L-PBF) additive manufacturing (AM). AM Hastelloy X, a solution-strengthened alloy, is tested at elevated temperature under fully reversed LCF conditions at different strain levels. A generalized plane strain finite element model is generated from electron backscatter diffraction (EBSD) characterization. The constitutive behavior of the material under fatigue is modeled using crystal plasticity and calibrated with both monotonic tensile and cyclic stress–strain data. The fatigue micro-crack initiation and propagation in the microstructure is modeled using a modified Chaboche fatigue damage model. An embedded boundary condition with a homogenous medium is used to apply the cyclic deformation and prevent numerically introduced over-constraints during fatigue simulation. A ‘cycle-jump’ method is used to accelerate the fatigue simulation and reduce the computational cost. The simulation results are compared to LCF experiments, showing satisfactory matches in cyclic stress behavior and number of cycles to macro-crack initiation for all applied strain ranges. In addition, the model illustrates the potential for quantifying microscale fatigue life impacting factors such as microstructure and surface roughness, which is needed to accurately quantify the reliability of AM components in service.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Infusible Thermoplastic Composites for Wind Turbine Blade Manufacturing: Fatigue Life of Thermoplastic Laminates under Ambient and Low-Temperature Conditions

Traditionally, thermoset resins such as polyesters (PE) and epoxies are used as the polymer matrix for construction of wind turbine blades. However, concern about their end-of-life treatment garners interest to use thermoplastics for increased recyclability. However, the high viscosity of molten thermoplastics inhibits their use in manufacturing wind turbine blades with injection or compression molding. A recently developed, infusible, reactive thermoplastic resin overcomes this technological barrier. Toward verifying that this recyclable resin is suitable for use in wind turbine blades, a dataset of R?=?0.1 and R?=?10 fatigue data for glass fiber-reinforced acrylic composites is provided and equal fatigue life to industry standard epoxy and unsaturated PE resin systems is demonstrated. Specifically, R?=?0.1 fatigue data for acrylic composites at room temperature and -30?degrees C for verification of low-temperature performance are tabulated. To elucidate failure mechanisms, in situ mechanical testing with X-ray computed tomography demonstrates that damage accumulation occurs by crack propagation along the fiber-matrix interface under cyclic loading. Infrared (IR) thermography predicts failure points in composites specimens with porosity defects introduced from nonideal manufacturing processes. Furthermore, these manufacturing defects are shown to compromise the fatigue life of the acrylic laminates by an order of magnitude.

effect of defects↗
DOE OSTI2026

Idealized Offshore Low‐Level Jets for Turbine Structural Impact Considerations

Low-level jets (LLJs) describe conditions in which the wind speed reaches a local maximum with respect to altitude near the surface; they have been observed intermittently in the US mid-Atlantic offshore environment. LLJs pose unique operating conditions for future wind turbines operating in the region, such as negative shear and locally strong veer, but they are not typically considered in existing turbine standards. This work builds upon recent research that explains the formation and evolution of the US mid-Atlantic LLJs through a simple analytical governing equation. We generate several LLJ inflow conditions with varying jet characteristics based on this analytical model and create monotonically sheared (MS) analogues with matched veer to assess the impacts of the LLJ on turbine performance and loading. Using aeroelastic simulations with these inflow conditions on the International Energy Agency 15-MW reference turbine, we find that the LLJ leads to a greater range of tower-top pitching and yawing moments, which could contribute to larger accumulated structural fatigue in components compared to MS inflow. These preliminary results demonstrate a path toward a unified set of test cases for low-level wind maxima that can inform the International Electrotechnical Commission standards related to offshore wind turbine design.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

AOI 3 Life Modelling of Critical Steam Cycle Components in Coal-Fueled Power Plants

Microstructural damage accumulation models have been used to produce calibrated life estimation models for a DR22/P22 steel wye-block welds, and a Jethete stainless steel turbine blade (bucket). The calibrated life estimation models will aid the power plant operator in determining optimal maintenance and operation schedules based upon historical operational data as well as current, or future operation schemes. The impact of this project will enable existing coal-fueled power plants to operate safely for longer periods of time and at higher efficiencies, thereby reducing the economic and environmental impact of the existing coal power plant fleet. Testing, characterization, and modelling indicates that the operating life of P22 pipelines and their welds are dominated by fatigue damage mechanisms. Specifically, fatigue is of no concern in these materials when operating under realistic conditions manifesting in the main steam piping of coal-fueled power plants. However, if a low-temperature overload ever occurs during operation, fatigue will manifest as a damage mechanism of interest. Primary impact provided by the completion of this work is in the manifestation of a detailed ABAQUS solid model providing accurate boundary conditions to enable the prediction of operational stresses and strains. The completed plant solid model, in conjunction with the calibrated fatigue and creep life models provide definitive confirmation that creep is the dominant damage mechanism during operational conditions. Jethete life modelling has been completed by the manifestation of a material-specific, and temperature-specific, Kitagowa diagram. The Kitagowa diagram provides maintenance and operation decision making with scientifically-based go/no-go support based upon the crack-like features that have been identified by use of inspection.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗
DOE OSTI2024

In-Situ Blade Strain Measurements and Fatigue Analysis of a Cross-Flow Turbine Operating in a Tidal Flow

Cross-flow turbines (CFTs) are inherently unsteady devices with regards to operating principle and loading. By improving our understanding of the dynamic loading on these turbines, we hope to better inform CFT design, improve survivability, and reduce overall costs. The University of New Hampshire (UNH) and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) collaborated on a project to instrument and test a four-bladed New Energy Corp. vertical axis cross-flow turbine in a real tidal flow. One blade from the 3.2 m diameter x 1.7 m height turbine was instrumented with eight full-bridge strain gauges along the span of the blade. The turbine was then deployed at the UNH-Atlantic Marine Energy Center (AMEC) Tidal Energy Test Site in Portsmouth, NH. Time-synchronized measurements of blade strain, inflow, thrust, rotational speed, and electrical output were obtained to characterize blade loading under various conditions. The blade strain was examined to assess the dynamic loading and conduct a fatigue analysis on the device.

blade strain↗
DOE OSTI2022

Foam Fracturing Study for Stimulation Development of Enhanced Geothermal Systems

This is a final technical report for the project: Foam Fracturing Study for Stimulation Development of Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS). The goal is to demonstrate the feasibility of foam fracturing in EGS applications. The project, led by Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), was conducted in collaboration with Temple University. The report describes the research activities with Task 1 at ORNL: foam fracturing testing system development and experimental study on foam fracturing, and Task 2 at Temple University: foam testing and foam characterization. Main findings are: 1. A foam fracturing test system has been developed at ORNL, which can be used to perform foam fracturing under pressure up to 6,000 psi. The system monitors foam density during fracturing online and is capable of testing materials in both monotonic and cyclic (up to 50 Hz) injections. 2. Foam fracturing tests were carried out on Charcoal black granite specimens with a blind borehole to the middle length. Two diameters of blind borehole were tested; G2 series: 9.53 mm and G3 series: 4.76 mm. N2-in-water foam was used with AOS as a surfactant. 3. There was a hole-size effect on fracture initiation pressure. The effect is smaller in the case of foam, which was influenced by the high penetrability of gas in foam. Breakdown pressure showed a behavior just as that of fracture pressure; namely an increased value for small hole samples, while the effect in water fracture was more impressive than in foam fracture. 4. Water mass was reduced in foam fracturing within similar range of breakdown pressures. In G2 series, it was decreased from 10.44 g for water fracturing to 5.17 g, representing more than 50% water reduction. Therefore, there is the potential to reduce water use in EGS stimulation through foam fracturing. 5. Use of cyclic injection has the potential to reduce the breakdown pressure and seismicity in EGS application. Experiments using 4-s cycle period found that specimens can be fractured with a low number of cycles. The fatigue pressure was approximately 64 - 77% of monotonic breakdown pressure for water fracturing and 58 - 94% of the breakdown pressure for foam fracturing. 6. A foam stability testing system has been developed that can test foam at 220 Deg C to 2,000 psi. Tested components of candidate foams included two gases: N2 and CO2; 4 surfactants: AOS, SDS, NP-40 and CTAC; 5 stabilizing agents: guar, bentonite clay, borate salt, silica NPs, and GO. 7. N2 and AOS provided the most stable performance over the tested ranges. Furthermore, the AOS foam with stabilizing agents of guar and borate salt (crosslinker) offered the highest half-life of 20 minutes at 200 Deg C and 1,000 psi. 8. Arrhenius equation and modified power law have been demonstrated to fit well the half-time vs. temperature and pressure data, respectively. These relations can be useful to provide the suggestion for future foam stability study. This submission contains the supporting data developed during the project: 1) A final technical report 2) Granite fracturing data in monotonic and cyclic injections with water and N2 foam Foam performance data in various temperatures and pressures, including half-time, is submitted separately.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

ASME Section III, Division 5, Class A 100,000-hour design data for Alloy 709

This report documents the 100,000 hour, Class A ASME design material data for Alloy 709 based on the extensive Department of Energy, Office of Nuclear Energy, Advanced Reactor Technologies qualification test campaign. This report includes design tensile properties, creep rupture data, allowable stresses, isochronous stress-strain curves, buckling charts, and a few additional miscellaneous pieces of design data. Companion work at Oak Ridge National Laboratory and Argonne National Laboratory provide design cyclic data --- fatigue charts and creep-fatigue diagrams --- and an inelastic constitutive model. This work substantially completes the ASME data package for the Alloy 709 Code Case, though the design data will continue to updated as the final tests finish. This report also compares the design performance of Alloy 709 against that of 316H stainless steel to provide a reference for the improved high temperature strength of 709 compared to a reference material for sodium fast reactor construction.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Initial Design Curves for Alloy 709 for an Improved Creep-fatigue Design Method

Creep-fatigue (CF) interaction damage is the primary damage mode for high-temperature structural components subjected to cyclic loading. Over the past several decades, researchers within the American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME) Boiler and Pressure Vessel Code (BPVC), Section III, Division 5, have focused on developing elevated temperature code rules to ensure conservative structural designs that mitigate CF failure in high-temperature reactors. The existing CF evaluation methodologies in the Code are based on the creep and fatigue damage diagram approach, which is complex and often excessively conservative. The alternative CF evaluation approach proposed here is intended to significantly simplify the evaluation procedure while reducing conservatism in high-temperature component design analysis. This alternative CF evaluation method integrates the elastic–perfectly plastic (EPP) analysis approach with the simplified model test (SMT) CF design concept, leveraging the advantages of both methods. This report presents the preliminary analysis and the approach for developing CF design curves for Alloy 709, utilizing fatigue and CF data generated for the 100,000-hr Code Case to support its qualification to ASME Section III, Division 5 for Class A construction of high temperature reactors. This study is to support the incorporation of Alloy 709 in this alternative CF evaluation method. Recommendations for the remaining work needed to complete the effort are also provided.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Influence of copper content on the high temperature tensile and low cycle fatigue behavior of cast Al-Cu-Mn-Zr alloys

The relationship between low cycle fatigue (LCF) and monotonic tensile fracture strain was investigated for cast Al-Cu-Mn-Zr alloys containing 6 and 9 wt% Cu at 250 °C. The 9% Cu alloy consisted of larger size and volume fraction of brittle intermetallic grain boundary particles that fractured during tensile tests to reduce the fracture strain by 50% compared to the 6% Cu alloy. We found that LCF life was similar between the two alloys and weakly influenced by the particles. LCF life and fracture strain were poorly correlated due to the dominant influence of particles on monotonic tensile crack but not on fatigue crack.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Effect of thermal aging and irradiation on microstructure and crack growth response of Alloy 690

Nickel-base Alloy 690 and the associated weld Alloys 52 and 152 are typically used for nozzle penetrations in replacement heads for pressurized water reactor (PWR) vessels, because of their excellent overall resistance to general corrosion and environmental degradation, primarily stress corrosion cracking (SCC). However, many of the existing PWRs reactors are expected to operate for 40-80 years. Likewise, advanced water-cooled small modular reactors (SMRs) will use Ni-Cr alloys and are expected to receive initial operating licenses for 60 years. Hence, the thermal stability of Ni-Cr alloys is a potential concern for the long-term performance of both existing and advanced nuclear plants, and possibly spent fuel storage containers. The objective of this research is to understand the microstructural changes occurring in high-Cr, Ni-based Alloy 690 during long time exposure to the reactor operating temperatures, and the effect of these changes on the service performance. One area of particular concern is the potential for long range ordering (LRO), i.e. formation of the intermetallic Ni 2 Cr phase under prolonged exposure to reactor temperatures and/or irradiation, which can increase strength, decrease ductility, and cause dimensional changes or lead to in-service embrittlement of components made with these alloys. Hence, this research focused on the microstructural evolution and the SCC response of Alloy 690 under accelerated thermal aging and irradiation conditions. The materials studied involved Alloy 690 from two sources: (i) Alloy 690 plate from an Alloy 152 dissimilar metal weld (DMW) joining the Alloy 690 plate to Alloy 533 LAS, aged at three different temperatures (370°C, 400°C and 450°C) for up to 75,000h (equivalent to 60 years of service), and (ii) specimens neutron-irradiated in the BOR-60 reactor up to 40 dpa. For aged Alloy 690 specimens, hardness was found to increase with aging time, however, the microstructural characterization by means of synchrotron X-ray did not find evidence of LRO. The microstructural characterization of neutron-irradiated specimens by TEM found no evidence of LRO either. Testing in a primary water environment of Alloy 690 specimens aged to a 60-year service equivalent revealed a fatigue and corrosion fatigue crack growth responses similar to those measured on the un-aged alloy. The SCC CGR response was also low. Overall, the two Alloy 690 heats investigated in this work, aged up to 60-year service equivalents or exposed to neutron irradiation up to 40 dpa, did not exhibit a deterioration in microstructure or performance.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Sister Rod Destructive Examinations (FY22) Appendix F2: Evaluation of Fuel Rod Fatigue During Spent Fuel Transportation

This report documents work performed under the Spent Fuel and Waste Disposition’s Spent Fuel and Waste Science and Technology program for the US Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Nuclear Energy (NE). This work was performed to fulfill Level 2 Milestone M2SF-23OR010201024, “FY22 Report on ORNL Sibling Rod Testing Results,” within work package SF-23OR01020102 and is an update to the work reported in M2SF-22OR010201047, M2SF-21OR010201032, M2SF-19ORO010201026, and M2SF- 19OR010201028. As a part of DOE NE High Burnup Spent Fuel Data Project, Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) is performing destructive examinations (DEs) of high burnup (HBU) (>45 GWd/MTU) spent nuclear fuel (SNF) rods from the North Anna Nuclear Power Station operated by Dominion Energy. The SNF rods, called sister rods or sibling rods, are all HBU and include four different kinds of fuel rod cladding: standard Zircaloy-4 (Zirc-4), low-tin (LT) Zirc-4, ZIRLO, and M5. The DEs are being conducted to obtain a baseline of the HBU rods’ condition before dry storage and are focused on understanding overall SNF rod strength and durability. Composite fuel and defueled cladding will be tested to derive material properties. Although the data generated can be used for multiple purposes, one primary goal for obtaining the post-irradiation examination data and the associated measured mechanical properties is to support SNF dry storage licensing and relicensing activities by (1) addressing identified knowledge gaps and (2) enhancing the technical basis for post-storage transportation, handling, and subsequent disposition. This appendix documents an evaluation of the fatigue data to enhance the technical basis for post-storage transportation, handling, and subsequent disposition and to identify future testing needs for Phase 2 of the project.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Microstructural effects on the rotating bending fatigue behavior of Ti–6Al–4V produced via laser powder bed fusion with novel heat treatments

The rotating bending fatigue (RBF) behavior (fully reversed, R = -1) of additively manufactured (AM) Ti–6Al–4V alloy produced via laser powder bed fusion (PBF-L) was investigated with respect to different microstructures achieved through novel heat treatments. The investigation herein seeks to elucidate the effect of microstructure by controlling variables that can affect fatigue behavior in Ti–6Al–4V, such as chemistry, porosity, and surface roughness. In order to control these variables, different hot isostatic pressing (HIP) treatments at 800 °C, 920 °C, and 1050 °C with a 920 °C temper were applied to three sets of Ti–6Al–4V cylinders that originated from the same PBF-L build, such that there were 30 tests per condition. After HIP treatment, the specimens were machined and tested. The highest runout stress was achieved after sub-β transus HIP at 800 °C for 2 h at 200 MPa of pressure. A significant drop in fatigue strength was attributed to large prior-β grains and grain boundary α resulting from super-β transus HIP treated specimens. In conclusion, for the sub-β transus HIP specimens, differences in fatigue strength were attributed to α lath thickness, relative dislocation density, and dislocation boundary strengthening.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Preliminary Procedures and Acceptance Criteria for in-situ Structural Materials Surveillance for MSR

This report describes the initial development of the technical basis for a materials surveillance technology that, when fully developed and validated, can be used by stakeholders to develop and implement a materials surveillance program to manage materials degradation during reactor operations. The procedures described in this report aim to bound the detrimental effects of the reactor environment on the creep-fatigue life of the reactor components through materials surveillance. Specifically, the report describes procedures for selecting critical locations within the reactor components for surrogate materials surveillance and the sizing and placements of passively-actuated materials surveillance test articles under development by the US Department of Energy, Advanced Reactor Technologies Program. These test articles apply cyclic thermomechanical load to a surrogate sample of the component structural material passively through thermal expansion mismatch within the articles, without requiring any penetrations in the reactor coolant boundary. The procedures can be used to size materials surveillance test articles so that they will fail before the corresponding structural component. These articles would be exposed to the component operating environment, located to experience a bounding radiation fluence and representative coolant exposure. They can be monitored during reactor operations to ensure that they have not failed under the combination of creep-fatigue damage and environmental degradation. The report describes the key technical decisions and the corresponding rational for using these procedures to provide advanced warning of any impending material failure. An appendix describes the technical basis and the procedure for sizing a family of passively-actuated test articles. Finally, the report describes future work needed to complete the technical basis underlying this materials surveillance technology.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Sensitivity analysis of numerical modeling input parameters on floating offshore wind turbine loads

Abstract. Floating wind turbines must withstand a unique and challenging set of loads from the wind and ocean environment. To de-risk development, accurate predictions of these loads are necessary. Uncertainty in modeling predictions leads to larger required safety factors, increasing project costs and the levelized cost of energy. Complex aero-hydro-elastic modeling tools use many input parameters to represent the wind, waves, current, aerodynamic loads, hydrodynamic loads, and structural properties. It is helpful to understand which of these parameters ultimately drives a design. In this work, an ultimate and fatigue-proxy load sensitivity analysis was performed with 35 different input parameters, using an elementary effects approach to identify the most influential parameters for a case study involving the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) 5 MW baseline wind turbine atop the OC4-DeepCwind semisubmersible during normal operation. The importance of each parameter was evaluated using 14 response quantities of interest across three operational wind speed conditions. The study concludes that turbulent wind velocity standard deviation is the parameter with the strongest sensitivity; this value is important not just for turbine loads, but also for the global system response. The system center of mass in the wind direction is found to have the highest impact on the system rotation and tower loads. The current velocity is found to be the most dominating parameter for the system global motion and consequently the mooring loads. All tested wind turbulence parameters in addition to the standard deviation are also found to be influential. Wave characteristics are influential for some fatigue-proxy loading but do not significantly impact the extreme ultimate loads in these operational load cases. The required number of random seeds for stochastic environmental conditions is considered to ensure that the sensitivities are due to the input parameters and not due to the seed. The required number of analysis points in the parameter space is identified so that the conclusions represent a global sensitivity. The results are specific to the platform, turbine, and choice of parameter ranges, but the demonstrated approach can be applied widely to guide focus in parameter uncertainty.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Predictive models of long COVID

Background: The cause and symptoms of long COVID are poorly understood. It is challenging to predict whether a given COVID-19 patient will develop long COVID in the future. Methods: We used electronic health record (EHR) data from the National COVID Cohort Collaborative to predict the incidence of long COVID. We trained two machine learning (ML) models — logistic regression (LR) and random forest (RF). Features used to train predictors included symptoms and drugs ordered during acute infection, measures of COVID-19 treatment, pre-COVID comorbidities, and demographic information. We assigned the ‘long COVID’ label to patients diagnosed with the U09.9 ICD10-CM code. The cohorts included patients with (a) EHRs reported from data partners using U09.9 ICD10-CM code and (b) at least one EHR in each feature category. We analysed three cohorts: all patients (n = 2,190,579; diagnosed with long COVID = 17,036), inpatients (149,319; 3,295), and outpatients (2,041,260; 13,741). Findings: LR and RF models yielded median AUROC of 0.76 and 0.75, respectively. Ablation study revealed that drugs had the highest influence on the prediction task. The SHAP method identified age, gender, cough, fatigue, albuterol, obesity, diabetes, and chronic lung disease as explanatory features. Models trained on data from one N3C partner and tested on data from the other partners had average AUROC of 0.75. Interpretation: ML-based classification using EHR information from the acute infection period is effective in predicting long COVID. SHAP methods identified important features for prediction. Cross-site analysis demonstrated the generalizability of the proposed methodology.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗