Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Failure Rate”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 253 records · Page 14
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2004

Granular Materials and Risks in ISRU

Working with soil, sand, powders, ores, cement and sintered bricks, excavating, grading construction sites, driving off-road, transporting granules in chutes and pipes, sifting gravel, separating solids from gases, and using hoppers are so routine that it seems straightforward to execute these operations on the Moon and Mars as we do on Earth. We discuss how little these processes are understood and point out the nature of trial-and-error practices that are used in today s massive over-design. Nevertheless, such designs have a high failure rate. Implementation and extensive incremental scaling up of industrial processes are routine because of the inadequate predictive tools for design. We present a number of pragmatic scenarios where granular materials play a role, the risks involved, what some of the basic issues are, and what understanding is needed to greatly reduce the risks. This talk will focus on a particular class of granular flow issues, those that pertain to dense materials, their physics, and the failure problems associated with them. In particular, key issues where basic predictability is lacking include stability of soils for the support of vehicles and facilities, ability to control the flow of dense materials (jamming and flooding/unjamming at the wrong time), the ability to predict stress profiles (hence create reliable designs) for containers such as bunkers or silos. In particular, stress fluctuations, which are not accounted for in standard granular design models, can be very large as granular materials flows, and one result is frequent catastrophic failure of granular devices.

Behringer, Robert P.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Granular Materials and Risks In ISRU

Working with soil, sand, powders, ores, cement and sintered bricks, excavating, grading construction sites, driving off-road, transporting granules in chutes and pipes, sifting gravel, separating solids from gases, and using hoppers are so routine that it seems straightforward to execute these operations on the Moon and Mars as we do on Earth. We discuss how little these processes are understood and point out the nature of trial-and-error practices that are used in today's massive over-design. Nevertheless, such designs have a high failure rate. Implementation and extensive incremental scaling up of industrial processes are routine because of the inadequate predictive tools for design. We present a number of pragmatic scenarios where granular materials play a role, the risks involved, what some of the basic issues are, and what understanding is needed to greatly reduce the risks. This talk will focus on a particular class of granular flow issues, those that pertain to dense materials, their physics, and the failure problems associated with them. In particular, key issues where basic predictability is lacking include stability of soils for the support of vehicles and facilities, ability to control the flow of dense materials (jamming and flooding/unjamming at the wrong time), the ability to predict stress profiles (hence create reliable designs) for containers such as bunkers or silos. In particular, stress fluctuations, which are not accounted for in standard granular design models, can be very large as granular materials flows, and one result is frequent catastrophic failure of granular devices.

Behringer, Robert P.↗
NASA NTRS1998

Space Shuttle Main Engine Quantitative Risk Assessment: Illustrating Modeling of a Complex System with a New QRA Software Package

During 1997, a team from Hernandez Engineering, MSFC, Rocketdyne, Thiokol, Pratt & Whitney, and USBI completed the first phase of a two year Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) of the Space Shuttle. The models for the Shuttle systems were entered and analyzed by a new QRA software package. This system, termed the Quantitative Risk Assessment System(QRAS), was designed by NASA and programmed by the University of Maryland. The software is a groundbreaking PC-based risk assessment package that allows the user to model complex systems in a hierarchical fashion. Features of the software include the ability to easily select quantifications of failure modes, draw Event Sequence Diagrams(ESDs) interactively, perform uncertainty and sensitivity analysis, and document the modeling. This paper illustrates both the approach used in modeling and the particular features of the software package. The software is general and can be used in a QRA of any complex engineered system. The author is the project lead for the modeling of the Space Shuttle Main Engines (SSMEs), and this paper focuses on the modeling completed for the SSMEs during 1997. In particular, the groundrules for the study, the databases used, the way in which ESDs were used to model catastrophic failure of the SSMES, the methods used to quantify the failure rates, and how QRAS was used in the modeling effort are discussed. Groundrules were necessary to limit the scope of such a complex study, especially with regard to a liquid rocket engine such as the SSME, which can be shut down after ignition either on the pad or in flight. The SSME was divided into its constituent components and subsystems. These were ranked on the basis of the possibility of being upgraded and risk of catastrophic failure. Once this was done the Shuttle program Hazard Analysis and Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA) were used to create a list of potential failure modes to be modeled. The groundrules and other criteria were used to screen out the many failure modes that did not contribute significantly to the catastrophic risk. The Hazard Analysis and FMEA for the SSME were also used to build ESDs that show the chain of events leading from the failure mode occurence to one of the following end states: catastrophic failure, engine shutdown, or siccessful operation( successful with respect to the failure mode under consideration).

Smart, Christian↗
NASA NTRS1993

Phased-mission system analysis using Boolean algebraic methods

Most reliability analysis techniques and tools assume that a system is used for a mission consisting of a single phase. However, multiple phases are natural in many missions. The failure rates of components, system configuration, and success criteria may vary from phase to phase. In addition, the duration of a phase may be deterministic or random. Recently, several researchers have addressed the problem of reliability analysis of such systems using a variety of methods. A new technique for phased-mission system reliability analysis based on Boolean algebraic methods is described. Our technique is computationally efficient and is applicable to a large class of systems for which the failure criterion in each phase can be expressed as a fault tree (or an equivalent representation). Our technique avoids state space explosion that commonly plague Markov chain-based analysis. A phase algebra to account for the effects of variable configurations and success criteria from phase to phase was developed. Our technique yields exact (as opposed to approximate) results. The use of our technique was demonstrated by means of an example and present numerical results to show the effects of mission phases on the system reliability.

Somani, Arun K.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Effect of Transverse Compression on the Dielectric Breakdown of Power Cable with Ethylene Propylene Rubber Insulation

Understanding of the failure mechanisms of submarine dynamic power cables (SDPC) is critical for innovative design to meet the 2035 cost reduction target of U.S. DOE Floating Offshore Wind Shot. This is important because the current design suffers a significant failure rate in the field. This project explored a multiphysics approach and conducted systematic electro-thermo-mechanical (ETM) experimental study on the power cores extracted from a 15 kV power cable. The power cable had three cores of copper conductor and ethylene propylene rubber (EPR) insulation. An ETM testing system with transverse compression capability was developed. Mechanical loading induced dielectric breakdown. Increasing temperature from room temperature (RT, 22 degrees Celsius) to 90 degrees Celsius resulted in the 67% decrease in the failure mechanical load as defined by the dielectric breakdown. With the same temperature rise, the creep mechanical load was reduced by 70% at a given dielectric breakdown time. The post-test measurement revealed an impressive recovery of electrical resistance, although the dielectric breakdown occurred in the ETM test that would not be captured without the use of ETM testing.

Wang, Hong [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000201730545)↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Endogenous Microbial Survival in Brewed Tea

Loose-leaf bagged tea is a commonly requested beverage item that comprises up to 7% of the microbiological samples from the space food systems. As loose-leaf tea blends often contain herbs and spices that frequently have high microbial loads, they have a high failure rate as defined by the microbiological standards outlined in NASA-STD-3001, which are more stringent than the limits set for industry. Between April 2019 and September 2022, 54.8% of loose-leaf teas submitted for microbiological testing have failed, necessitating the evaluation of a variety of brands and lot numbers of each requested tea type to meet crew preference requests, which are typically specific, resulting in excess labor and material costs to provide a single product for spaceflight consumption. Attempts to identify specific brands or ingredients that are less likely to produce a failure have been unsuccessful, as to date, no trends in those measures have been identified. We have, however, noticed a trend in types of teas (spiced and herbal) which are more likely to fail. Of additional concern, hot water available for brewing tea on ISS is dispensed at a lower temperature than the CDC recommended brewing temperature. In a study we previously reported, we found that that brewing water temperature may not have a significant impact on the number of aerobic bacteria in chamomile tea, as there were no significant differences in the total microbial load between tea brewed with boiling, ISS-like, or room temperature waters. It did appear that ISS temperature water was similarly effective to boiling water against a pathogenic bacterial species. In this study, we aim to assess whether the total number of aerobic bacteria of other high-fail-rate tea types is similarly unaffected when brewing tea in room temperature or boiling water. Data from this study and the previous study, as well as additional analysis of every tea product that has been tested as part of the normal food system since April 2019, will be used to determine the expected typical microbial load for loose-leaf teas, which we will compare to existing industry limits so that we can recommend a new microbiological limit for loose-leaf teas that accurately reflects the true risk of consuming brewed teas in spaceflight.

space flight food↗
DOE OSTI2025

Electro-Thermo-Mechanical (ETM) Study on Submarine Dynamic Power Cables (SDPC) for Offshore Wind Transmission

Understanding the failure mechanisms of submarine dynamic power cables (SDPC) is critical for innovative design to meet the 2035 cost reduction target of U.S. DOE Floating Offshore Wind Shot. This is important because the current design suffers a significant failure rate in the field. This project conducted a systematic electro-thermo-mechanical (ETM) experimental study on the power cores extracted from a 15kV power cable with three cores of copper conductor, ethylene propylene rubber (EPR) insulation, and continuously corrugated welded aluminum armor (CCWA). An ETM testing system was developed by integrating a high voltage (HV) amplifier, two ceramic heaters, and a rod-plate transverse compression setup into a mechanical testing machine. Increasing temperature from room temperature (RT, 22 degree C) to 90 degree C resulted in the 67% decrease in the failure mechanical load as defined by the dielectric breakdown. Under creep mechanical loading, the dielectric breakdown time was decreased by 70% for a given mechanical load when the specimen temperature increased from RT to 90oC. The failure strain in both monotonic and creep mechanical loading modes was related to the maximum mechanical load applied. Although the dielectric breakdown occurred in the ETM test, the post-test measurement revealed an impressive recovery of electric resistance. The failure analysis on cross section of tested specimens indicated a sizable gap across insulation layer near the area between copper conductor and loading rod, which apparently resulted from online dielectric failure and offline elastic recovery of components including conductor and insulation layer.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS1981

Software models: A Bayesian approach to parameter estimation in the Jelenski-Moranda software reliability model

Maximum likelihood estimation procedures for the Jelinski-Moranda software reliability model often give misleading answers. A reparameterization and a Bayesian analysis eliminate some of the problems incurred by MLE methods and often give better predictions on sets of real and simulated data. Practical difficulties in estimating the initial number of errors N and the failure rate of each error phi by the method of maximum likelihood are: N, the MLE of N, is occasionally infinite (i.e., the routines for calculating N and phi do not converge). It is shown that N is finite sub i only if the regression line of the interevent times t sub i vs. i has positive slope. A serious problem is that often N approximates n, the sample size, and sometimes N = n. Thus the MLE predicts that the program is perfect even when it is far from being so. Only when almost all failures have been removed can N and phi be trusted near the end of debugging.

Littlewood, B.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Accelerated Aging Experiments for Capacitor Health Monitoring and Prognostics

This paper discusses experimental setups for health monitoring and prognostics of electrolytic capacitors under nominal operation and accelerated aging conditions. Electrolytic capacitors have higher failure rates than other components in electronic systems like power drives, power converters etc. Our current work focuses on developing first-principles-based degradation models for electrolytic capacitors under varying electrical and thermal stress conditions. Prognostics and health management for electronic systems aims to predict the onset of faults, study causes for system degradation, and accurately compute remaining useful life. Accelerated life test methods are often used in prognostics research as a way to model multiple causes and assess the effects of the degradation process through time. It also allows for the identification and study of different failure mechanisms and their relationships under different operating conditions. Experiments are designed for aging of the capacitors such that the degradation pattern induced by the aging can be monitored and analyzed. Experimental setups and data collection methods are presented to demonstrate this approach.

Prognostics of Electronics↗
NASA NTRS2017

Oxygen Storage Tanks Are Feasible for Mars Transit

The Mars transit tanks will probably be titanium lined, composite over wrapped pressure vessels (COPVs) similar to those used in the space shuttle and International Space Station(ISS). Since the mass of a storage tank is proportional to the mass of the gas it contains, the required oxygen will use about the same mass of tanks regardless of the number and size ofthe tanks. Using existing relatively small COPVs is possible. Pressure vessels can fail due torupture and leakage but no failures have occurred in space and the expected failure rates are very low. Since one or two spare tanks are required for reliability, using smaller tanks can reduce the total mass. For a Mars round trip, the mass of oxygen and tanks including spares is roughly equal to the mass of the ISS Oxygen Generation Assembly (OGA) and its spares. Since the OGA must orbit Mars and be returned to Earth, while half the storage tanks are emptied on the way to Mars and can be abandoned, storage tanks have a significant launch mass advantage over the OGA. Storage tanks are simpler, more reliable,and have fewer failure modes than an OGA. They would have smaller design and development costs and need less crew time and maintenance. Oxygen storage tanks are feasible for Mars transit and are attractive compared to the ISS OGA.

Jones, Harry W.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Evaluating the Durability of Balance of Systems Components Using Combined-Accelerated Stress Testing

The degradation of photovoltaic (PV) balance of systems (BoS) components is not well-studied, but the consequences include: offline-modules, -strings, -inverters; system shutdown; arc-faults; and fires. A utility provider experienced a ~30% failure rate in their power transfer chain, attributed to branch connectors. Field-failed specimen assemblies were therefore examined, consisting of cable connector, branch connector and discrete fuse components. Unused field-vintage specimens are presently being examined using combined-accelerated stress testing (C-AST) to clarify the most influential environmental stressors as well as the effect of external mechanical perturbation. A benchtop prototype fixture was used to develop the perturbation capability for C-AST. The benchtop experiments were also used to develop the in-situ data acquisition of specimen: current, voltage, and temperature. A significant increase in operating temperature, ~100 deg C from ~40 deg C, and a different failure mode was observed immediately once periodic mechanical perturbation was applied. The current at failure was decreased from 35 A (with failure occurring in the fuses) to 15 A (failure at the male/female metal pin connection). After initial examination using X-ray computed tomography, the external plastic was machined away from failed specimens to allow failure analysis, including the extraction of the internal convolute springs for morphological examination (optical- and electron-microscopy). Chemical composition analysis included: energy-dispersive X-ray spectroscopy, differential scanning calorimetry, and Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy.

balance of systems↗
DOE OSTI2022

Evaluating the Durability of Balance of Systems Components Using Combined-Accelerated Stress Testing: Preprint

The degradation of photovoltaic (PV) balance of systems (BoS) components is not well-studied, but the consequences include: offline-modules, -strings, -inverters; system shutdown; arc-faults; and fires. A utility provider experienced a ~30% failure rate in their power transfer chain, originally attributed to branch connectors. Field-failed specimen assemblies were therefore examined, consisting of cable connector, branch connector, and discrete fuse components. Unused field-vintage specimens are presently being examined using combined-accelerated stress testing (C-AST) to clarify the most influential environmental stressors as well as the effect of external mechanical perturbation. A benchtop prototype fixture was used to develop the perturbation capability for the C-AST chamber. The benchtop experiments were also used to develop the in-situ data acquisition of specimen: current, voltage, and temperature. A significant increase in operating temperature, ~100 deg C from ~40 deg C, and a different failure mode was observed promptly once periodic mechanical perturbation was applied. The current at failure was decreased from 35 A (with failure in the fuses) to 15 A (failure at the male/female metal pin connection). After initial examination using X-ray computed tomography, the external plastic was machined away from failed specimens to allow failure analysis, including the extraction of the internal convolute springs for morphological examination (optical- and electron-microscopy).

balance of systems↗
DOE OSTI2022

Evaluating the Durability of Balance of Systems Components Using Combined-Accelerated Stress Testing

The degradation of photovoltaic (PV) balance of systems (BoS) components is not well-studied, but the consequences include offline modules, strings, and inverters; system shutdown; arc faults; and fires. A utility provider experienced a ~30% failure rate in their power transfer chain, originally attributed to branch connectors. Field-failed specimen assemblies were therefore examined, consisting of cable connector, branch connector, and discrete fuse components. In this study, unused field-vintage specimens are examined using combined-accelerated stress testing (C-AST) to clarify the most influential environmental stressors as well as the effect of external mechanical perturbation. A benchtop prototype fixture was used to develop the perturbation capability for the C-AST chamber. The benchtop experiments were also used to develop the in-situ data acquisition of specimen current, voltage, and temperature. A significant increase in operating temperature (~100 degrees C from ~40 degrees C) and a different failure mode were observed promptly once periodic mechanical perturbation was applied. The current at failure was decreased from 35 A (with failure in the fuses) to 15 A (failure at the male/female metal pin connection). After initial examination using X-ray computed tomography, the external plastic was machined away from failed specimens to allow for failure analysis, including the extraction of the internal convolute springs for morphological examination (optical and electron microscopy).

balance of systems↗
DOE OSTI2022

Development of Fixtures and Methods to Assess the Durability of Balance of Systems Components

The degradation of photovoltaic (PV) balance of systems (BoS) components is not well studied, but the consequences include offline modules, strings, and inverters; system shutdown; arc faults; and fires. A utility provider experienced a ~30% failure rate in their power transfer chain, originally attributed to branch connectors. Field-failed specimen assemblies were, therefore, examined, consisting of cable connector, branch connector, and discrete fuse components. In this study, unused field-vintage specimens are examined using a benchtop prototype fixture to identify the most influential environmental stressors on BoS components as well as the effect of external mechanical perturbation. The prototype fixture was used to develop a perturbation capability for future use in the combined-accelerated stress testing chamber. The benchtop experiments were also used to develop the in-situ data acquisition of specimen current, voltage, and temperature. A significant increase in operating temperature (~100 °C from ~40 °C) and a different failure mode (arcing at the metal pins rather than overheating of the fuse filament) were observed promptly once periodic mechanical perturbation was applied. The current at failure was decreased from 35 A (measured for static specimens, with failure occurring in the fuses) to 15 A (for tests with mechanical perturbation, with failure at the male/female metal pin connection). After initial examination using X-ray computed tomography, the external plastic was machined away from failed specimens to allow for failure analysis, including the extraction of the internal convolute springs for morphological examination (optical and electron microscopy). Chemical composition analysis included energy-dispersive X-ray spectroscopy, differential scanning calorimetry, and Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Reliability‐based layout optimization in offshore wind energy systems

Abstract Existing methods for optimizing wind array layouts typically use power or cost objectives and rarely consider reliability‐based objectives. Component and system failure rates, however, are dependent on location‐specific wind conditions, are influenced by array layout and wake interactions, and have a direct and significant impact on capital costs, operational costs, and power production. Although wind power plant models exist that calculate wind loads with sufficient resolution to capture component loading dynamics from wind conditions, they are computationally expensive and thus not suitable for research applications requiring many evaluations, particularly optimization. This study describes the development of computationally efficient, reliability‐based layout optimization methods, enabling us to explore the relationship between component reliability and layout optimization. These methods include the surrogate modeling of the planet bearing life based on varying wind conditions simulated in FAST.Farm and the formulation of reliability‐based objectives based on failure cost and power production models. Through demonstration of this method, we explore how wind conditions, objective functions, and capacity density influence reliability‐based layout optimization. Results indicate that considering reliability alongside power production can reduce failure costs associated with replacement costs and downtime while maintaining or improving power production. Our conclusions highlight the opportunity for wind power plant developers to integrate reliability and operational expenditures alongside performance and capital expenditure objectives in plant design and development to improve plant performance and costs.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Assessment of Crew Time for Maintenance and Repairs Activities for Lunar Surface Missions

NASA is currently evaluating different methods to predict how much time crewmembers will spend conducting repair and maintenance activities on future space missions. As mission scope and spacecraft architectures change, it will be necessary to understand how crew repair and maintenance timelines are impacted by mission operations and technology changes. Past work has been done using historical ISS data to accurately predict crew habitation and operation timelines, resulting in the development of NASA’s Exploration Crew Time Model (ECTM). However, understanding crew maintenance and repair requirements has posed a unique challenge due to the complexity of available datasets, the probabilistic nature of sub-system failures, and the impacts of reliability growth on failure rates. This paper presents a methodology to collect and condition empirical repair and maintenance time data from available data sets, to extrapolate from that data to estimate projected maintenance and repair times for a lunar Surface Habitat, and to assess how uncertainty in repair time could impact utilization time on the lunar surface. NASA International Space Station (ISS) maintenance and crew time data are logged into two central databases, the Maintenance Data Collection (MDC) and the Operations Planning Timeline Integration System (OPTimIS) respectively. Separately, each of these two datasets capture only portions of the complete set of data required to generate an accurate assessment of crew time spent on maintenance activities at a sub-system level. MDC provides a detailed catalog of failure events and an overview of the failure’s required maintenance and OPTimIS provides a description of crew activities and crew time durations dedicated to maintenance. To create a more useful crew time estimate for maintenance timelines, the authors developed a methodology to capture relevant data from each set and combine and utilize that data by linking crew time requirements to specific components. The authors compare the failure logs in the MDC to crew activity logs pulled from OPTimIS and then process the data to estimate required repair times for each failure event. Data is also classified by the outcome of each repair event, whether the failed component was replaced or whether it was repaired in place. The entire maintenance activity dataset is then categorized based on the class of failed component to allow for a statistically significant sample size for each class and to provide accurate crew time estimates for any components lacking relevant data. This resultant component repair time data can be used in the future to generate Mean Time To Repair (MTTR) estimates and confidence intervals for each class of component based on a probabilistic distribution of documented maintenance events. These improved MTTR values can then be applied to candidate element sub-system architectures, along with component Mean Time Between Failure (MTBF) data to generate distributions for potential required system crew repair time estimates for a given mission. Repair time distributions can then be used to develop more accurate crew schedules and to assess potential available utilization time.

Crew Time↗
DOE OSTI2021

DISTRIBUTION TRANSFORMER ASSET MONITORING ON THE GRID EDGE USING SMART SENSOR DATA

As new loads such as rooftop photovoltaics, electric vehicles and other distributed energy resources become commonplace on the distribution grid, the stress on already aging assets begins to escalate. This increased loading and changing dynamics can exacerbate failure rates. While traditional monitoring efforts focus on transmission and generation assets, utilities are now beginning to pay close attention to distribution assets in order to increase reliability indices and reduce cost from unexpected outages. This research develops low-cost and scalable methods to monitoring the health of a critical distribution grid asset: the service transformer. Existing methods in literature are either invasive and thus difficult to implement or require the device to be tested offline in an expensive lab setting. Data from the ubiquitous smart meter as well as a novel Bluetooth based transformer monitor are leveraged to automatically notify the utility of deteriorating or damaged transformers. Voltage, temperature, and vibration are some of the signals measured and analyzed by the proposed algorithms to predict transformer failures. Furthermore, these algorithms are designed to keep the implementation and processing costs low by taking advantage of edge computing where possible.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2023

A use-case-driven approach for demonstrating the added value of digitalisation in wind energy

Digitalisation is one of the key drivers for reducing the costs and risks of wind energy. When considering whether to embark on a digitalisation initiative, two key questions arise. The first is what business or operational opportunities might feasibly be addressed and the second is which of the many potential aspects of digitalisation are relevant to those opportunities. In this work, we show how these questions can be answered with a use-case-driven approach, based around a survey aiming to collect and collate the main "pain points" (or everyday challenges) of people in the wind energy sector. Although the relatively low number of participants of the survey (46) means that the results should only be used indicatively, it is still possible to make some general recommendations for priorities for digitalisation efforts in the wind energy sector. Firstly, digitalisation efforts should focus both on supporting people carrying out cross-lifecycle tasks, in particular sharing data, managing data, undertaking general data analyses and accessing data. Tools to do this should deal with varying data formats and naming conventions, make metadata more accessible, define data and metadata standards, make more data publicly available and improve the quality of data. Secondly, efforts should also focus on supporting people in the wind farm operational phase, in particular with failure detection, fault diagnosis, failure rate modelling and predictive maintenance. Solutions to do this should focus on accessible and validated tools for fault detection, cloud or other data pipeline solutions for SCADA data and tools for exhaustive data documentation. Finally, digitalisation efforts should focus on better communicating and helping people become aware of existing solutions and tools, as well as on helping people to exert a stronger influence on possible solutions.

17 WIND ENERGY↗