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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 253 records · Page 14
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

A mathematical approach to using the forgetting curve to evaluate experience and training factors in human reliability analysis

Traditional human reliability analysis (HRA) methods have difficulty dealing with the dynamic nature of factors such as time and rely on static and expert-judgment-based assessments of performance-shaping factors (PSFs) across limited levels. In this study, we introduce a mathematical approach for dynamically evaluating the experience and training PSF. Our proposed method integrates the psychological concept of the “forgetting curve” to evaluate how PSFs are impacted by the number of trainings and the time elapsed since training. To confirm the validity of the model, we provide experimental data fitted by identifying the quantitative relationship between training and human performance. This research enables dynamic and objective assessments, thus reducing reliance on subjective expert judgment and improving the accuracy of HRA.

99 - GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
NASA NTRS2012

The Analysis of the Contribution of Human Factors to the In-Flight Loss of Control Accidents

In-flight loss of control (LOC) is currently the leading cause of fatal accidents based on various commercial aircraft accident statistics. As the Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen) emerges, new contributing factors leading to LOC are anticipated. The NASA Aviation Safety Program (AvSP), along with other aviation agencies and communities are actively developing safety products to mitigate the LOC risk. This paper discusses the approach used to construct a generic integrated LOC accident framework (LOCAF) model based on a detailed review of LOC accidents over the past two decades. The LOCAF model is comprised of causal factors from the domain of human factors, aircraft system component failures, and atmospheric environment. The multiple interdependent causal factors are expressed in an Object-Oriented Bayesian belief network. In addition to predicting the likelihood of LOC accident occurrence, the system-level integrated LOCAF model is able to evaluate the impact of new safety technology products developed in AvSP. This provides valuable information to decision makers in strategizing NASA's aviation safety technology portfolio. The focus of this paper is on the analysis of human causal factors in the model, including the contributions from flight crew and maintenance workers. The Human Factors Analysis and Classification System (HFACS) taxonomy was used to develop human related causal factors. The preliminary results from the baseline LOCAF model are also presented.

Ancel, Ersin↗
NASA NTRS1975

Stress analysis and stress intensity factors for finite geometry solids containing rectangular surface cracks

The line method of analysis is applied to the Navier-Cauchy equations of elastic equilibrium to calculate the displacement field in a finite geometry bar containing a variable depth rectangular surface crack under extensionally applied uniform loading. The application of this method to these equations leads to coupled sets of simultaneous ordinary differential equations whose solutions are obtained along sets of lines in a discretized region. Using the obtained displacement field, normal stresses and the stress intensity factor variation along the crack periphery are calculated for different crack depth to bar thickness ratios. Crack opening displacements and stress intensity factors are also obtained for a through-thickness, center cracked bar with variable thickness. The reported results show a considerable potential for using this method in calculating stress intensity factors for commonly encountered surface crack geometries in finite solids.

Gyekenyesi, J. P.↗
NASA NTRS1978

Analysis of simulated measurements of earth emitted radiation using geometric shape factors, and some results from analysis of ESSA 7 and Nimbus 6 data

In the reported study, simulated measurements of earth radiation with wide field-of-view (WFOV) radiometers are reduced to earth fluxes through geometric shape factors. Estimates of emitted flux for global and zonal scales and for regions smaller than the detector field-of-view are compared to fluxes derived directly from a model. Geometric shape factors are used to estimate global, zonal, and regional averages of earth-emitted flux from measurements with WFOV detectors on the ESSA 7 satellite and the Nimbus 6 satellite. Zonal and global averages of emitted flux for each of the 3-month periods of ESSA 7 data are shown in a graph. Another graph shows zonal and global averages of emitted flux for August 1975 obtained with the aid of Nimbus 6. The data are compared to values reported by Green and Smith (1977) who used a spherical harmonic solution.

Weaver, W. L.↗
NASA NTRS1989

Analysis of the financial factors governing the profitability of lunar helium-3

Financial factors influencing the profitability of the mining and utilization of lunar helium-3 are examined. The analysis addressed the following questions: (1) which financial factors have the greatest leverage on the profitability of He-3; (2) over what range can these factors be varied to keep the He-3 option profitable; and (3) what ultimate effect could this energy source have on the price of electricity for U.S. consumers. Two complementary methods of analysis were used in the assessment: rate of return on incremental investment required and reduction revenue requirements (total cost to customers) achieved. Some of the factors addressed include energy demand, power generation costs with and without fusion, profitability for D-He(3) fusion, annual capital and operating costs, launch mass and costs, He-3 price, and government funding. Specific conclusions are made with respect to each of the companies considered: utilities, lunar mining company, and integrated energy company.

Kulcinski, G. L.↗
NASA NTRS1985

New technology implementation: Technical, economic and political factors

An analysis is presented of the process of implementing advanced manufacturing technology, based on studies of numerous organizations. This process is seen as consisting of a series of decisions with technical, economic, and political objectives. Frequency decisions involve specifications, equipment, resources/organization, and location. Problems in implementation are viewed as resulting from tradeoffs among the objectives, the tendency of decision makers to emphasize some objectives at the expense of others, and the propensity of problems to spread from one area to another. Three sets of recommendations, based on this analysis, are presented.

Dean, J. W., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS1986

Received optical power calculations for optical communications link performance analysis

The factors affecting optical communication link performance differ substantially from those at microwave frequencies, due to the drastically differing technologies, modulation formats, and effects of quantum noise in optical communications. In addition detailed design control table calculations for optical systems are less well developed than corresponding microwave system techniques, reflecting the relatively less mature state of development of optical communications. Described below are detailed calculations of received optical signal and background power in optical communication systems, with emphasis on analytic models for accurately predicting transmitter and receiver system losses.

Marshall, W. K.↗
NASA NTRS2007

A Longitudinal Analysis of the Causal Factors in Major Maritime Accidents in the USA and Canada (1996-2006)

Accident reports provide important insights into the causes and contributory factors leading to particular adverse events. In contrast, this paper provides an analysis that extends across the findings presented over ten years investigations into maritime accidents by both the US National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) and Canadian Transportation Safety Board (TSB). The purpose of the study was to assess the comparative frequency of a range of causal factors in the reporting of adverse events. In order to communicate our findings, we introduce J-H graphs as a means of representing the proportion of causes and contributory factors associated with human error, equipment failure and other high level classifications in longitudinal studies of accident reports. Our results suggest the proportion of causal and contributory factors attributable to direct human error may be very much smaller than has been suggested elsewhere in the human factors literature. In contrast, more attention should be paid to wider systemic issues, including the managerial and regulatory context of maritime operations.

Johnson, C. W.↗
NASA NTRS1921

Loads and calculations of army airplanes

By comparing airplanes of known strength that have resisted all the usual and even extreme air loads with those that under like conditions were found to be insufficiently strong, the researchers, aided by scientific investigations, developed standards which are satisfactory for the calculation of airplane structures. Given here are standards applicable to loads on wing trusses, load factors for use in stress analysis, load factors required in sand testing, loads on control surfaces, loads on wing ribs, loads on landing gear, and rigidity of materials.

Stelmachowski, Ing↗
NASA NTRS2009

On the Influence of Anthropogenic Forcings on Changes in the Stratospheric Mean Age

A common feature of stratospheric simulations of the past or future is an increase in tropical upwelling and a decrease in mean age. Possible causes or these changes include (1) increases in tropical sea surface temperatures (SSTs) driven by increases in well-mixed greenhouse gases (WMGHGs), (2) the direct radiative effect of increases in WMGHGs, and (3) changes in ozone. Here we examine a suite of simulations from the Goddard Earth Observing System chemistry-climate model (GEOS CCM) to isolate the relative role of these three factors. Our analysis indicates that all three factors cause changes in the mean age, but the relative impact of each factor depends on the time period analyzed. Over the past 30-40 years ozone depletion is the major factor causing the decrease in mean age, with negligible changes due to direct radiative impact of WMGHG's. However, ozone is predicted to recover back to 1970 levels during the next 50-60 years, and this causes an increase in the mean age, whereas the continued increase in SSTs from increased levels of WMGHGs and the direct radiative impact of WMGHGs will still cause a decrease in the mean age. The net impact of these factors will still result in a decreasing mean age although the rate will be smaller than that of the past. The decreases in mean age are primarily caused by increases in upwelling in the tropical lower stratosphere. The increased upwelling from both increased tropical SSTs and polar ozone loss appears to be related to changes in zonal winds and increases in wave activity propagating into the stratosphere. The different contributions of changes in SSTs, WMGHGs, and ozone to the circulation of the stratosphere may help explain the large spread in the rate of change of tropical upwelling seen in previous studies.

Oman, Luke↗
DOE OSTI2025

Top-Performing Photovoltaic Cells Compared to the Shockley–Queisser Limit

Top-performing single-junction and two-terminal tandem devices that include at least one polycrystalline cell are compared with each other and their ideal limits. The parameters of open-circuit voltage, short-circuit current, and fill-factor are individually compared to the Shockley–Queisser limit to investigate where different technologies have room to improve. Technologies, such as silicon and cadmium telluride have the most room for improvement in open-circuit voltage currently utilizing 87% and 81% of their maxima, respectively. Detailed diode and fill-factor loss analysis is presented for single-junction devices to give further insight on how they compare and where efficiency is lost. Single-crystal technologies demonstrate a fill-factor closer to the Shockley–Queisser limit than polycrystalline devices. The high diode quality factor of polycrystalline devices is the leading cause of the decreased fill-factor. Similar analysis on tandem cells with at least one thin-film cell shows that although their efficiency exceeds that of the single-junction cells, the fraction of their ideal efficiency is smaller. Here, by comparing parameters to the Shockley–Queisser limit, it becomes clearer where certain technologies have the potential for improvement.

High efficiency↗
NASA NTRS1973

Preliminary analysis of hot spot factors in an advanced reactor for space electric power systems

The maximum fuel pin temperature for nominal operation in an advanced power reactor is 1370 K. Because of possible nitrogen embrittlement of the clad, the fuel temperature was limited to 1622 K. Assuming simultaneous occurrence of the most adverse conditions a deterministic analysis gave a maximum fuel temperature of 1610 K. A statistical analysis, using a synthesized estimate of the standard deviation for the highest fuel pin temperature, showed probabilities of 0.015 of that pin exceeding the temperature limit by the distribution free Chebyshev inequality and virtually nil assuming a normal distribution. The latter assumption gives a 1463 K maximum temperature at 3 standard deviations, the usually assumed cutoff. Further, the distribution and standard deviation of the fuel-clad gap are the most significant contributions to the uncertainty in the fuel temperature.

Lustig, P. H.↗
NASA NTRS2006

Faying Surface Lubrication Effects on Nut Factors

Bolted joint analysis typically is performed using nut factors derived from textbooks and procedures from program requirement documents. Joint specific testing was performed for a critical International Space Station (ISS) joint. Test results indicate that for some configurations the nut factor may be significantly different than accepted textbook values. This paper presents results of joint specific testing to aid in determining if joint specific testing should be performed to insure required preloads are obtained.

Taylor, Deneen M.↗
DOE OSTI2022

An Application of a Modified Beta Factor Method for the Analysis of Software Common Cause Failures

This paper presents an approach for modeling software common cause failures (CCFs) within digital instrumentation and control (I&C) systems. CCFs consist of a concurrent failure between two or more components due to a shared failure cause and coupling mechanism. This work emphasizes the importance of identifying software-centric attributes related to the coupling mechanisms necessary for simultaneous failures of redundant software components. The groups of components that share coupling mechanisms are called common cause component groups (CCCGs). Most CCF models rely on operational data as the basis for establishing CCCG parameters and predicting CCFs. This work is motivated by two primary concerns: (1) a lack of operational and CCF data for estimating software CCF model parameters; and (2) the need to model single components as part of multiple CCCGs simultaneously. A hybrid approach was developed to account for these concerns by leveraging existing techniques: a modified beta factor model allows single components to be placed within multiple CCCGs, while a second technique provides software-specific model parameters for each CCCG. This hybrid approach provides a means to overcome the limitations of conventional methods while offering support for design decisions under the limited data scenario.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
NASA NTRS1994

Statistical analysis of microgravity experiment performance using the degrees of success scale

This paper describes an approach to identify factors that significantly influence microgravity experiment performance. Investigators developed the 'degrees of success' scale to provide a numerical representation of success. A degree of success was assigned to 293 microgravity experiments. Experiment information including the degree of success rankings and factors for analysis was compiled into a database. Through an analysis of variance, nine significant factors in microgravity experiment performance were identified. The frequencies of these factors are presented along with the average degree of success at each level. A preliminary discussion of the relationship between the significant factors and the degree of success is presented.

Upshaw, Bernadette↗