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At least 253 records · Page 14

Sea level extremes and compounding marine heatwaves in coastal Indonesia

Low-lying island nations like Indonesia are vulnerable to sea level Height EXtremes (HEXs). When compounded by marine heatwaves, HEXs have larger ecological and societal impact. Here we combine observations with model simulations, to investigate the HEXs and Compound Height-Heat Extremes (CHHEXs) along the Indian Ocean coast of Indonesia in recent decades. We find that anthropogenic sea level rise combined with decadal climate variability causes increased occurrence of HEXs during 2010–2017. Both HEXs and CHHEXs are driven by equatorial westerly and longshore northwesterly wind anomalies. For most HEXs, which occur during December-March, downwelling favorable northwest monsoon winds are enhanced but enhanced vertical mixing limits surface warming. For most CHHEXs, wind anomalies associated with a negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and co-occurring La Niña weaken the southeasterlies and cooling from coastal upwelling during May-June and November-December. Our findings emphasize the important interplay between anthropogenic warming and climate variability in affecting regional extremes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A quinary WTaCrVHf nanocrystalline refractory high-entropy alloy withholding extreme irradiation environments

In the quest of new materials that can withstand severe irradiation and mechanical extremes for advanced applications (e.g. fission & fusion reactors, space applications, etc.), design, prediction and control of advanced materials beyond current material designs become paramount. Here, through a combined experimental and simulation methodology, we design a nanocrystalline refractory high entropy alloy (RHEA) system. Compositions assessed under extreme environments and in situ electron-microscopy reveal both high thermal stability and radiation resistance. We observe grain refinement under heavy ion irradiation and resistance to dual-beam irradiation and helium implantation in the form of low defect generation and evolution, as well as no detectable grain growth. The experimental and modeling results—showing a good agreement—can be applied to design and rapidly assess other alloys subjected to extreme environmental conditions.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Aerosols overtake greenhouse gases causing a warmer climate and more weather extremes toward carbon neutrality

To mitigate climate warming, many countries have committed to achieve carbon neutrality in the mid-21 st century. Here, we assess the global impacts of changing greenhouse gases (GHGs), aerosols, and tropospheric ozone (O 3 ) following a carbon neutrality pathway on climate and extreme weather events individually using the Community Earth System Model version 1 (CESM1). The results suggest that the future aerosol reductions significantly contribute to climate warming and increase the frequency and intensity of extreme weathers toward carbon neutrality and aerosol impacts far outweigh those of GHGs and tropospheric O 3 . It reverses the knowledge that the changing GHGs dominate the future climate changes as predicted in the middle of the road pathway. Therefore, substantial reductions in GHGs and tropospheric O 3 are necessary to reach the 1.5 °C warming target and mitigate the harmful effects of concomitant aerosol reductions on climate and extreme weather events under carbon neutrality in the future.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Future increase in compound soil drought-heat extremes exacerbated by vegetation greening

Compound soil drought and heat extremes are expected to occur more frequently with global warming, causing wide-ranging socio-ecological repercussions. Vegetation modulates air temperature and soil moisture through biophysical processes, thereby influencing the occurrence of such extremes. Global vegetation cover is broadly expected to increase under climate change, but it remains unclear whether vegetation greening will alleviate or aggravate future increases in compound soil drought-heat events. Here, using a suite of state-of-the-art model simulations, we show that the projected vegetation greening will increase the frequency of global compound soil drought-heat events, equivalent to 12-21% of the total increment at the end of 21st century. This increase is predominantly driven by reduced albedo and enhanced transpiration associated with increased leaf area. Although greening-induced transpiration enhancement has counteracting cooling and drying effects, the excessive water loss in the early growing season can lead to later soil moisture deficits, amplifying compound soil drought-heat extremes during the subsequent warm season. These changes are most pronounced in northern high latitudes and are dominated by the warming effect of CO 2 . Our study highlights the necessity of integrating vegetation biophysical effects into mitigation and adaptation strategies for addressing compound climate risks.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Extreme shear-deformation-induced modification of defect structures and hierarchical microstructure in an Al–Si alloy

Abstract Extreme shear deformation is used for several material processing methods and is unavoidable in many engineering applications in which two surfaces are in relative motion against each other while in physical contact. The mechanistic understanding of the microstructural evolution of multi-phase metallic alloys under extreme shear deformation is still in its infancy. Here, we highlight the influence of shear deformation on the microstructural hierarchy and mechanical properties of a binary as-cast Al-4 at.% Si alloy. Shear-deformation-induced grain refinement, multiscale fragmentation of the eutectic Si-lamellae, and metastable solute saturated phases with distinctive defect structures led to a two-fold increase in the flow stresses determined by micropillar compression testing. These results highlight that shear deformation can achieve non-equilibrium microstructures with enhanced mechanical properties in Al–Si alloys. The experimental and computational insights obtained here are especially crucial for developing predictive models for microstructural evolution of metals under extreme shear deformation.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Characterizing chemical abundance ratios in extremely metal-poor star-forming galaxies in DESI EDR

We present a search for galaxies in the local Universe with extremely low oxygen abundance, that is, more than 25 times lower than solar, which corresponds to 12 + log(O/H) < 7.3. To determine the oxygen abundance, we apply the directT e method for objects where the [O III]λ4363 line is detected. We identified 21 extremely metal-poor galaxies in the early data release of the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI EDR), for some of which we also derived N/O, Ne/O, Ar/O, and S/O ratios. We find that many DESI galaxies with extremely low oxygen abundance exhibit a higher N/O ratio in comparison to the reference low-metallicity sample collected from the literature. We suggest that the elevation in N/O ratio may be explained by a contamination with metal-rich gas caused by gas inflow or a merger event. Moreover, contrary to some recent studies, we find that Ar/O and S/O ratios are enhanced as well, while the Ne/O ratio does not show such elevation. One of the galaxies, J0713+5608, has a remarkably low oxygen abundance of 6.978 ± 0.095 dex. This measurement aligns with the lowest known oxygen abundances in galaxies to date. Given the relatively high uncertainty, this galaxy may have the lowest oxygen abundance ever found. Additionally, J0713+5608 exhibited an enhanced N/O ratio compared to the typical N/O ratio observed in metal-poor galaxies within the local Universe.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗

Techniques for studying materials under extreme states of high energy density compression

The properties of materials under extreme conditions of pressure and density are of key interest to a number of fields, including planetary geophysics, materials science, and inertial confinement fusion. In geophysics, the equations of state of planetary materials, such as hydrogen and iron, under ultrahigh pressure and density provide a better understanding of their formation and interior structure [Celliers et al., “Insulator-metal transition in dense fluid deuterium,” Science 361, 677–682 (2018) and Smith et al., “Equation of state of iron under core conditions of large rocky exoplanets,” Nat. Astron. 2, 591–682 (2018)]. The processes of interest in these fields occur under conditions of high pressure (100 GPa–100 TPa), high temperature (>3000 K), and sometimes at high strain rates (>103 s−1) depending on the process. With the advent of high energy density (HED) facilities, such as the National Ignition Facility (NIF), Linear Coherent Light Source, Omega Laser Facility, and Z, these conditions are reachable and numerous experimental platforms have been developed. To measure compression under ultrahigh pressure, stepped targets are ramp-compressed and the sound velocity, measured by the velocity interferometer system for any reflector diagnostic technique, from which the stress-density of relevant materials is deduced at pulsed power [M. D. Knudson and M. P. Desjarlais, “High-precision shock wave measurements of deuterium: Evaluation of exchange-correlation functionals at the molecular-to-atomic transition,” Phys. Rev. Lett. 118, 035501 (2017)] and laser [Smith et al., “Equation of state of iron under core conditions of large rocky exoplanets,” Nat. Astron. 2, 591–682 (2018)] facilities. To measure strength under high pressure and strain rates, experimenters measure the growth of Rayleigh–Taylor instabilities using face-on radiography [Park et al., “Grain-size-independent plastic flow at ultrahigh pressures and strain rates,” Phys. Rev. Lett. 114, 065502 (2015)]. The crystal structure of materials under high compression is measured by dynamic x-ray diffraction [Rygg et al., “X-ray diffraction at the national ignition facility,” Rev. Sci. Instrum. 91, 043902 (2020) and McBride et al., “Phase transition lowering in dynamically compressed silicon,” Nat. Phys. 15, 89–94 (2019)]. Medium range material temperatures (a few thousand degrees) can be measured by extended x-ray absorption fine structure techniques, Yaakobi et al., “Extended x-ray absorption fine structure measurements of laser-shocked V and Ti and crystal phase transformation in Ti,” Phys. Rev. Lett. 92, 095504 (2004) and Ping et al., “Solid iron compressed up to 560 GPa,” Phys. Rev. Lett. 111, 065501 (2013), whereas more extreme temperatures are measured using x-ray Thomson scattering or pyrometry. This manuscript will review the scientific motivations, experimental techniques, and the regimes that can be probed for the study of materials under extreme HED conditions.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Multi-extreme conditions at the Second Target Station

Three concepts for the application of multi-extreme conditions under in situ neutron scattering are described here. The first concept is a neutron diamond anvil cell made from a non-magnetic alloy. It is shrunk in size to fit existing magnets and future magnet designs and is designed for best pressure stability upon cooling. This will allow for maximum pressures above 10 GPa to be applied simultaneously with (steady-state) high magnetic field and (ultra-)low temperature. Additionally, an implementation of miniature coils for neutron diamond cells is presented for pulsed-field applications. The second concept presents a set-up for laser-heating a neutron diamond cell using a defocused CO 2 laser. Cell, anvil, and gasket stability will be achieved through stroboscopic measurements and maximum temperatures of 1500 K are anticipated at pressures to the megabar. The third concept presents a hybrid levitator to enable measurements of solids and liquids at temperatures in excess of 4000 K. This will be accomplished by a combination of bulk induction and surface laser heating and hyperbaric conditions to reduce evaporation rates. The potential for deployment of these multi-extreme environments within this first instrument suite of the Second Target Station is described with a special focus on VERDI, PIONEER, CENTAUR, and CHESS. Furthermore, considerations for deployment on future instruments, such as the one proposed as TITAN, are discussed. Overall, the development of these multi-extremes at the Second Target Station, but also beyond, will be highly advantageous for future experimentation and will give access to parameter space previously not possible for neutron scattering.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Femtosecond laser fabrication of nanograting-based distributed fiber sensors for extreme environmental applications

Abstract The femtosecond laser has emerged as a powerful tool for micro- and nanoscale device fabrication. Through nonlinear ionization processes, nanometer-sized material modifications can be inscribed in transparent materials for device fabrication. This paper describes femtosecond precision inscription of nanograting in silica fiber cores to form both distributed and point fiber sensors for sensing applications in extreme environmental conditions. Through the use of scanning electron microscope imaging and laser processing optimization, high-temperature stable, Type II femtosecond laser modifications were continuously inscribed, point by point, with only an insertion loss at 1 dB m −1 or 0.001 dB per point sensor device. High-temperature performance of fiber sensors was tested at 1000 °C, which showed a temperature fluctuation of ±5.5 °C over 5 days. The low laser-induced insertion loss in optical fibers enabled the fabrication of a 1.4 m, radiation-resilient distributed fiber sensor. The in-pile testing of the distributed fiber sensor further showed that fiber sensors can execute stable and distributed temperature measurements in extreme radiation environments. Overall, this paper demonstrates that femtosecond-laser-fabricated fiber sensors are suitable measurement devices for applications in extreme environments.

Wang, Mohan (ORCID:0000000166784993)↗

Real-time attribution of the influence of climate change on extreme weather events: a storyline case study of Hurricane Ian rainfall

Abstract As the Earth continues to warm due to human greenhouse gas emissions, there is a growing need to efficiently communicate the effect that global warming has on individual extreme weather events. Using a storyline approach, we present a rapid attribution of the increase in rainfall over Florida during Hurricane Ian in 2022 due to climate change as a case study. We find that extreme accumulated rainfall amounts associated with Hurricane Ian increased by 18%, far in excess of what would be expected by Clausius–Clapeyron scaling. The study offers a blueprint for rapid operational climate change attribution statements about extreme storms and other very rare weather events.

Reed, Kevin A. (ORCID:0000000337417080)↗

J2229+2725: an extremely low metallicity dwarf compact star-forming galaxy with an exceptionally high [O iii ]λ5007/[O ii ]λ3727 flux ratio of 53

ABSTRACT Using the Large Binocular Telescope (LBT)/Multi-Object Dual Spectrograph (MODS), we have obtained optical spectroscopy of one of the most metal-poor dwarf star-forming galaxies (SFGs) in the local Universe, J2229+2725. This galaxy with a redshift z = 0.0762 was selected from the Data Release 16 of the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS). Its properties derived from the LBT observations are most extreme among SFGs in several ways. Its oxygen abundance 12 + logO/H = 7.085 ± 0.031 is among the lowest ever observed for an SFG. With its very low metallicity, an absolute magnitude Mg = −16.39 mag, a low stellar mass M⋆ = 9.1 × 106 M⊙, and a very low mass-to-light ratio M⋆/Lg ∼ 0.0166 (in solar units), J2229+2725 deviates strongly from the luminosity–metallicity relation defined by the bulk of the SFGs in the SDSS. J2229+2725 has a very high specific star formation rate sSFR ∼ 75 Gyr−1, indicating very active ongoing star formation. Three other features of J2229+2725 are most striking, being the most extreme among lowest metallicity SFGs: (1) a ratio O32 = I([O iii]λ5007)/I([O ii]λ3727) ∼ 53, (2) an equivalent width of the H β emission line EW(H β) of 577 Å, and (3) an electron number density of ∼1000 cm−3. These properties imply that the starburst in J2229+2725 is very young. Using the extremely high O32 in J2229+2725, we have improved the strong-line calibration for the determination of oxygen abundances in the most metal-deficient galaxies, in the range 12 + logO/H $\lesssim$ 7.3.

Izotov, Y. I.↗

Probing the early Milky Way with GHOST spectra of an extremely metal-poor star in the Galactic disc

ABSTRACT Pristine_183.6849 + 04.8619 (P1836849) is an extremely metal-poor ([Fe/H] = −3.3 ± 0.1) star on a prograde orbit confined to the Galactic disc. Such stars are rare and may have their origins in protogalactic fragments that formed the early Milky Way, in low-mass satellites accreted later, or forming in situ in the Galactic plane. Here, we present a chemo-dynamical analysis of the spectral features between 3700−11 000 Å from a high-resolution spectrum taken during Science Verification of the new Gemini High-resolution Optical SpecTrograph. Spectral features for many chemical elements are analysed (Mg, Al, Si, Ca, Sc, Ti, Cr, Mn, Fe, Ni), and valuable upper limits are determined for others (C, Na, Sr, Ba). This main sequence star exhibits several rare chemical signatures, including (i) extremely low metallicity for a star in the Galactic disc, (ii) very low abundances of the light α-elements (Na, Mg, Si) compared to other metal-poor stars, and (iii) unusually large abundances of Cr and Mn, where [Cr, Mn/Fe]NLTE > +0.5. A comparison to theoretical yields from supernova models suggests that two low-mass Population III objects (one 10 M⊙ supernova and one 17 M⊙ hypernova) can reproduce the abundance pattern well (reduced χ2 < 1). When this star is compared to other extremely metal-poor stars on quasi-circular, prograde planar orbits, differences in both chemistry and kinematics imply there is little evidence for a common origin. The unique chemistry of P1836849 is discussed in terms of the earliest stages in the formation of the Milky Way.

Dovgal, Anya↗

Predicting Power Outage During Extreme Weather with EAGLE-I and NWS Datasets

Extreme weather events, such as hurricanes, severe thunderstorms, and floods can significantly disrupt power grid systems, leading to electrical outages that result in inconvenience, economic losses, and life-threatening situations. There is a growing need for a robust and precise predictive model to forecast power outages, which will help prioritize emergency response before, during, and after extreme weather events. In this paper, we introduce machine-learning models that predict power outage risk at the state level during and after extreme weather events. We jointly utilized two publicly available datasets: the U.S. historical power outage data collected by the Environment for Analysis of Geo-Located Energy Information (EAGLE-I™) system, and the National Weather Service historical weather alert data sets. We highlight our initial result and discuss future work aimed at enhancing the model's robustness and accuracy for real-world applications.

Lee, Sangkeun (Matt)↗

Ultrafast Annealing Improves SNR and Long-Term Stability of a Highly Multiplexed Line-by-Line FBG Array Inscribed by Femtosecond Laser in a Coreless Fiber for Extreme-Temperature Applications

This study reports the fabrication of a fourth-order line-by-line fiber Bragg grating (FBG) array using femtosecond laser inscription within a highly multimode coreless optical fiber, with a particular focus on achieving substantial multiplexing capabilities. An ultrafast annealing procedure is employed, resulting in an impressive enhancement of the FBG sensor’s fringe visibility by approximately 13 dB, signifying a notable improvement of approximately ~4 dB. This substantial enhancement contributes to the long-term stability and performance of the multiplexed FBG array in extreme-temperature conditions. The systematic fabrication approach employed for the multiplexed FBG array guarantees a high signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) for each individual FBG within the array. This FBG array is intended for extreme-temperature applications, addressing limitations associated with traditional FBGs based on doped optical fibers, including SNR degradation and temperature-induced fringe drift. Testing at temperatures up to 1120 °C demonstrates the FBG array’s stability without fluctuations in readings. Furthermore, it endures seven heat cycles, spanning from 500 °C to 1120 °C, over 60 h, exhibiting outstanding thermal stability. Furthermore, this highly multiplexed FBG array with an ultrafast annealing approach holds promise for extreme-temperature environments, such as steelmaking, where precise and reliable distributed temperature monitoring is imperative.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Principal Component Analysis for Extremes and Application to U.S. Precipitation

Here, we propose a method for analyzing extremal behavior through the lens of a most efficient basis of vectors. The method is analogous to principal component analysis, but is based on methods from extreme value analysis. Specifically, rather than decomposing a covariance or correlation matrix, we obtain our basis vectors by performing an eigendecomposition of a matrix that describes pairwise extremal dependence. We apply the method to precipitation observations over the contiguous United States. We find that the time series of large coefficients associated with the leading eigenvector shows very strong evidence of a positive trend, and there is evidence that large coefficients of other eigenvectors have relationships with El Niño–Southern Oscillation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Estimation of Surface Sensible Heat Flux due to Precipitation over CONUS and Its Impact on Urban Extreme Precipitation Modeling

The surface sensible heat flux induced by precipitation (Q P ) is a consequence of the temperature difference between the surface and the rain droplets. Despite its seemingly negligible nature, Q P is frequently omitted from both meteorological and climatological models. Nevertheless, it is important to acknowledge the numerous occasions in which the instantaneous values of Q P can be significant, particularly during extreme precipitation events. This study undertakes a comprehensive assessment of Q P across the contiguous United States (CONUS) utilizing high-resolution reanalysis, observational data, and numerical modeling to examine the influence of Q P on precipitation and the surface energy budget. The findings indicate that the spatial distribution of Q P climatology is analogous to that of precipitation, with magnitudes ranging from 2 to 3 W m -2 predominantly over the Midwest and Southeast regions. A seasonal analysis of QP reveals that the highest values occurring during the June–August (JJA) period, averaging 3.18 W m -2 . Peak Q P values of approximately 4 W m -2 are observed during JJA over the Great Plains region. We hypothesize that the Q P during an extreme precipitation event would be nonnegligible and have a significant impact on the local weather. To test this conjecture, we perform high-resolution simulations with and without Q P during an extreme precipitation event over the Chicago Metropolitan Area (CMA). The results show that the Q P may be a dominant factor compared to other components of surface heat flux during the zenith of precipitation hours. Also, Q P has the potential to not only diminish precipitation but also alter and reconfigure the remaining surface energy budget components.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Characterization of Extreme Hydroclimate Events in Earth System Models using ML/AI

Focal Area(s): (1) We put forward the concepts of data assimilation enabled by machine learning, AI, and advanced methods including experimental/network design/optimization and unsupervised learning applied to downscale information within Earth System Models (ESMs). (2) We discuss predictive modeling through the use of AI techniques and other tools to design a prediction system comprising of a hierarchy of models (e.g., AI-driven model/component/parameterization selection) to improve the characterization of extreme hydroclimate events in ESMs. The AI-based models will run five-six order of magnitude times faster, yet will provide similar accuracy, allowing us to provide range bounds on uncertainty faster and thus enabling faster extreme event identification. (3) Further, we consider the insight gleaned from complex data (observed/simulated) using AI, big data analytics, and other advanced methods, including explainable AI and physics- or knowledge-guided AI to improve the characterization of extreme hydroclimate events in ESMs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Leveraging machine learning to improve understanding and predictability of weather/climate extremes and the resilience of human systems

Focal Area(s): Developing hybrid models for predicting weather/climate extremes at the intersection of the urban environment (focal area #2). Science Challenge: Limited by many sources of uncertainty, numerical models are unable to accurately simulate weather and climate processes and this problem is particularly acute for modeling extreme events, including hurricanes. Moreover, computational limits within these numerical models bound our ability to develop large ensembles to explore this uncertainty and the implications relative to characterization of risk and resilience within the human systems that are impacted by changes in extremes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗