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At least 253 records · Page 14
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Cities Are Concentrators of Complex, MultiSectoral Interactions Within the Human-Earth System

Cities are concentrators of complex, multi-sectoral interactions. As keystones in the interconnected human-Earth system, cities have an outsized impact on the Earth system. We describe a multi-lens framework for organizing our understanding of the complexity of urban systems and scientific research on urban systems, which may be useful for natural system scientists exploring the ways their work can be made more actionable. We then describe four critical dimensions along which improvements are needed to advance the urban research that addresses urgent climate challenges: (a) solutions-oriented research, (b) equity-centered assessments which rely on fine-scale human and ecological data, (c) co-production of knowledge, and (d) better integration of human and natural systems occurring through theory, observation, and modeling.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Modeling the potential effects of rooftop solar on household energy burden in the United States

Policymakers at the federal and state level have begun to incorporate energy burden into equity goals and program evaluations, aiming to reduce energy burden below a high level of 6% for lower income households in the United States. Pairing an empirical household-level dataset spanning United States geographies together with modeled hourly energy demand curves, we show that rooftop solar reduces energy burden across a majority of adopters during our study period from a median of 3.3% to 2.6%. For low- and moderate-income adopters (at or below 80% and 120% of area median income, respectively), solar reduces median 2021 energy burden from 7.7% to 6.2%, and 4.1% to 3.3%, respectively. Importantly, solar reduces the rate of high or severe energy burden from 67% of all low-income households before adoption to 52% of households following adoption, and correspondingly from 21% to 13% for moderate-income households. Here, we show rooftop solar can support policy goals to reduce energy burden along with strategies such as weatherization and bill assistance.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Rising infrastructure inequalities accompany urbanization and economic development

Impending global urban population growth is expected to occur with considerable infrastructure expansion. However, our understanding of attendant infrastructure inequalities is limited, highlighting a critical knowledge gap in the sustainable development implications of urbanization. Using satellite data from 2000 to 2019, we examine country-level population-adjusted biases in infrastructure distribution within and between regions of varying urbanization levels and derive four key findings. First, we find long-run positive associations between infrastructure inequalities and both urbanization and economic development. Second, our estimates highlight increasing infrastructure inequalities across most of the countries examined. Third, we find greater future infrastructure inequality increases in the global south, where inequalities will rise more in countries with substantial urban primacy. Fourth, we find that infrastructure inequality may evolve differently than economic inequalities. Overall, advancing sustainable development vis-à-vis urbanization and economic development will require intentional infrastructure planning for spatial equity.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Food–energy–water implications of negative emissions technologies in a +1.5 °C future

Scenarios for meeting ambitious climate targets rely on large-scale deployment of negative emissions technologies (NETs), including direct air capture (DAC). However, the tradeoffs between food, water and energy created by deploying different NETs are unclear. Here we show that DAC could provide up to 3 GtCO 2 yr -1 of negative emissions by 2035—equivalent to 7% of 2019 global CO 2 emissions—based on current-day assumptions regarding price and performance. DAC in particular could exacerbate demand for energy and water, yet it would avoid the most severe market-mediated effects of land-use competition from bioenergy with carbon capture and storage and afforestation. This could result in staple food crop prices rising by approximately fivefold relative to 2010 levels in many parts of the Global South, raising equity concerns about the deployment of NETs. Overall, these results highlight that delays in aggressive global mitigation action greatly increase the requirement for DAC to meet climate targets, and correspondingly, energy and water impacts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Exploring the potential of non-residential solar to tackle energy injustice

Despite the observed disparities in US residential solar deployment, there is limited insight into whether these disparities exist for the non-residential sector. Here we use DeepSolar, a comprehensive photovoltaic database constructed with satellite imagery, to assess solar deployment equity based on the US Justice40’s disadvantaged community measure. We find that disadvantaged communities have less non-residential solar (–38%), but this disparity is notably higher for residential solar (–67%). Across-state variations are consistent for residential solar (–81% to –49%) yet highly heterogeneous for non-residential solar (–66% to +34%). Using scenarios to explore the potential for microgrids powered by solar on building rooftops larger than 1,000 square metres, we estimate that 63% of disadvantaged communities could meet at least 20% of annual residential electricity demand. Furthermore, our research argues for a new focus on non-residential solar as a way to strengthen resilience and accelerate local deployment of clean energy resources to promote energy justice.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Transforming US agriculture for carbon removal with enhanced weathering

Abstract Enhanced weathering (EW) with agriculture uses crushed silicate rocks to drive carbon dioxide removal (CDR) 1,2 . If widely adopted on farmlands, it could help achieve net-zero emissions by 2050 2–4 . Here we show, with a detailed US state-specific carbon cycle analysis constrained by resource provision, that EW deployed on agricultural land could sequester 0.16–0.30 GtCO 2 yr −1 by 2050, rising to 0.25–0.49 GtCO 2 yr −1 by 2070. Geochemical assessment of rivers and oceans suggests effective transport of dissolved products from EW from soils, offering CDR on intergenerational timescales. Our analysis further indicates that EW may temporarily help lower ground-level ozone and concentrations of secondary aerosols in agricultural regions. Geospatially mapped CDR costs show heterogeneity across the USA, reflecting a combination of cropland distance from basalt source regions, timing of EW deployment and evolving CDR rates. CDR costs are highest in the first two decades before declining to about US$100–150 tCO 2 −1 by 2050, including for states that contribute most to total national CDR. Although EW cannot be a substitute for emission reductions, our assessment strengthens the case for EW as an overlooked practical innovation for helping the USA meet net-zero 2050 goals 5,6 . Public awareness of EW and equity impacts of EW deployment across the USA require further exploration 7,8 and we note that mobilizing an EW industry at the necessary scale could take decades.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗
DOE OSTI2022

The field of human building interaction for convergent research and innovation for intelligent built environments

Human-Building Interaction (HBI) is a convergent field that represents the growing complexities of the dynamic interplay between human experience and intelligence within built environments. This paper provides core definitions, research dimensions, and an overall vision for the future of HBI as developed through consensus among 25 interdisciplinary experts in a series of facilitated workshops. Three primary areas contribute to and require attention in HBI research: humans (human experiences, performance, and well-being), buildings (building design and operations), and technologies (sensing, inference, and awareness). Three critical interdisciplinary research domains intersect these areas: control systems and decision making, trust and collaboration, and modeling and simulation. Finally, at the core, it is vital for HBI research to center on and support equity, privacy, and sustainability. Compelling research questions are posed for each primary area, research domain, and core principle. State-of-the-art methods used in HBI studies are discussed, and examples of original research are offered to illustrate opportunities for the advancement of HBI research.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Sustainable urban transformations based on integrated microgrid designs

The impacts of natural hazards on infrastructure, enhanced by climate change, are increasingly more severe emphasizing the necessity of resilient energy grids. Microgrids, tailored energy systems for specific neighbourhoods and districts, play a pivotal role in sustaining energy supply during main grid outages. These solutions not only mitigate economic losses and well-being disruptions against escalating hazards but also enhance city resilience in alignment with Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 11. However, disregarding socioeconomic factors in defining microgrid boundaries risks perpetuating inequalities and impeding progress towards other SDG 11 targets, including fair democratic participation. Our approach integrates social and technical indicators to bolster urban microgrid planning. Through a case study in a US county, we illustrate how integrated microgrid planning effectively intertwines urban resilience, well-being and equity while promoting sustainable development. This study underscores the importance of integrated microgrid planning for sustainable and resilient urban transformation amid environmental and societal challenges.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2023

The state of food systems worldwide in the countdown to 2030

This Analysis presents a recently developed food system indicator framework and holistic monitoring architecture to track food system transformation towards global development, health and sustainability goals. Five themes are considered: (1) diets, nutrition and health; (2) environment, natural resources and production; (3) livelihoods, poverty and equity; (4) governance; and (5) resilience. Each theme is divided into three to five indicator domains, and indicators were selected to reflect each domain through a consultative process. In total, 50 indicators were selected, with at least one indicator available for every domain. Harmonized data of these 50 indicators provide a baseline assessment of the world’s food systems. We show that every country can claim positive outcomes in some parts of food systems, but none are among the highest ranked across all domains. Furthermore, some indicators are independent of national income, and each highlights a specific aspiration for healthy, sustainable and just food systems. The Food Systems Countdown Initiative will track food systems annually to 2030, amending the framework as new indicators or better data emerge.

Schneider, Kate R.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Concept of Operations of Next-Generation Traffic Control Utilizing Infrastructure-Based Cooperative Perception

This paper provides a system architecture for an infrastructure-based cooperative perception fusion engine for next-generation traffic control. This engine will provide a complete state-space digital representation with measurable accuracy to support a wide-range of applications. The architecture includes inputs, functional flow, data standardization recommendations, outputs, and supported applications. The cooperative perception engine addresses critical needs with respect to accelerating the benefits of automation through intelligent roadway infrastructure, which complements and accelerates connected and automated vehicle (CAV) technology. The cooperative perception acquires and fuses information from sensors (radar, LiDAR, and cameras) and CAVs to perceive roadway traffic states of moving objects, creates a complete 3D digital representation of that state-space, and communicates it to downstream application such as intelligent signal control, safety and energy applications, and cooperate driving applications. The intelligent roadway infrastructure approach, as opposed to a vehicle-centric approach, is more scalable because it can be deployed to the roughly 300,000 signalized intersections more readily than over 300 million vehicles in the United States, and accrues early-stage benefits equitable to all roadway users addressing safety, equity, fuel efficiency, and greenhouse gas reduction.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Mobility Gaps between Low-Income and Not Low-Income Households: A Case Study in New York State

Understanding the travel challenges faced by low-income residents has always been and continues to be one of the most important transportation equity topics. This study aims to explore the mobility gaps between low-income households (HHs) and not low-income HHs, and how the gaps vary within different socio-demographic population groups in New York State (NYS). The latest National Household Travel Survey data was used as the primary data source for the analysis. The study first employed the K-prototype clustering algorithm to categorize the HHs in NYS based on their socio-demographic attributes. Five population groups were identified based on nine different household (HH) features such as HH size, vehicle ownership, and elderly status of its members. Then, the mobility differences, measured by trip frequency, trip distance, travel time, and person miles traveled, were examined among the five population groups. Results suggest that the individuals in low-income HHs consistently took fewer trips and made shorter trips compared to their not low-income counterparts in NYS. The travel distance gaps were most obvious among white HHs with more vehicles than drivers. In addition, while the population from low-income HHs made shorter trips on average (2.7 mi shorter per trip), they experienced longer travel time than those from not low-income HHs (1.8 min longer per trip). These key findings provide a deeper understanding of the travel behavior disparities between low-income and not low-income households. The findings could also support policymakers and transportation planners in addressing the critical needs of residents in low-income households in NYS and provide inputs for designing a more equitable transportation system.

Liu, Yuandong↗
DOE OSTI2025

Work from Home Patterns across COVID-19 Waves: Implications for Future Transportation

The unprecedented rise in work from home (WFH) during COVID-19 poses challenges for the transportation engineers and planners with the travel demand forecasting. If WFH persists post-pandemic, it could influence traffic patterns, reducing peak-hour congestion. However, the evolution of WFH decisions across pandemic phases and varying socio-economic contexts remains unclear. This study examines factors influencing WFH choices using data from the US Census Bureau’s Household Pulse Survey. Findings reveal a decline in WFH participation from 60% during the first wave to 38% by the third wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. A Geographically Weighted Regression model highlights the influence of socio-economic, household, and COVID-19-related variables, with notable spatial variability. Results show that younger individuals, females, and households with children are consistently more likely to WFH, while non-white and higher income individuals have an increasing likelihood for WFH as the pandemic progresses. These insights inform future transportation planning, emphasizing equity and decentralization strategies for post-pandemic commuting.

Patwary, Latif [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000189174928)↗
DOE OSTI2023

DIII-D's role as a national user facility in enabling the commercialization of fusion energy

The path to fusion in the United States requires partnership between public and private sector. While the private sector provides the vigor to take some of the major steps necessary, there is a depth of expertise and capability in the public sector that is vital to resolving feasible approaches. As an open national user facility, DIII-D provides a crucial testbed to develop the required new technologies and approaches in relevant conditions. It has unparalleled potential to meet this challenge, thanks to its extreme flexibility and world leading diagnostics. This provides a basis to rapidly develop solutions that project to future reactors with confidence. The program has thus been redeveloped to enable public and private sector engagement and testing of new concepts. A new technology program has been launched to resolve plasma interacting technologies. With modest heating upgrades, the facility can confront the crucial “Integrated Tokamak Exhaust and Performance” gap, to resolve core, exhaust and technology solutions together. The device is also being redeveloped as a training facility, with dedicated student run time, a mentorship program, and open access to all opportunity roles, part of wider efforts to diversify and open pathways through inclusion, access, and equity. This exciting agenda is enabling scientists and technology researchers to pioneer the solutions needed for a Fusion Pilot Plant (FPP) and ITER this decade. As a national user facility, DIII D has singular potential to provide the tools, teams, and insight necessary, to do its part in moving the United States rapidly toward the commercialization of fusion energy.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

A coupled human–natural system analysis of freshwater security under climate and population change

Limited water availability, population growth, and climate change have resulted in freshwater crises in many countries. Jordan’s situation is emblematic, compounded by conflict-induced population shocks. Integrating knowledge across hydrology, climatology, agriculture, political science, geography, and economics, we present the Jordan Water Model, a nationwide coupled human–natural-engineered systems model that is used to evaluate Jordan’s freshwater security under climate and socioeconomic changes. The complex systems model simulates the trajectory of Jordan’s water system, representing dynamic interactions between a hierarchy of actors and the natural and engineered water environment. A multiagent modeling approach enables the quantification of impacts at the level of thousands of representative agents across sectors, allowing for the evaluation of both systemwide and distributional outcomes translated into a suite of water-security metrics (vulnerability, equity, shortage duration, and economic well-being). Model results indicate severe, potentially destabilizing, declines in freshwater security. Per capita water availability decreases by approximately 50% by the end of the century. Without intervening measures, >90% of the low-income household population experiences critical insecurity by the end of the century, receiving <40 L per capita per day. Widening disparity in freshwater use, lengthening shortage durations, and declining economic welfare are prevalent across narratives. To gain a foothold on its freshwater future, Jordan must enact a sweeping portfolio of ambitious interventions that include large-scale desalinization and comprehensive water sector reform, with model results revealing exponential improvements in water security through the coordination of supply- and demand-side measures.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Unlocking the benefits of transparent and reusable science for climate-risk management

People around the world seek climate-risk information to guide their decisions. For instance, projections about future flood risk inform where households choose to live, how lenders manage credit risks, and which communities receive federal funding. Yet data limitations and fundamental validation challenges raise important concerns about the reliability of such projections. The principles of transparency and reusability help address these concerns by enabling scrutiny of assumptions and methods, development of foundational data and tools, and consistent application of evaluation standards. While there is ongoing debate about how much transparency commercial climate-risk services should provide, many expect non-commercial actors to lead the way on operationalizing transparency and reusability to fulfill their knowledge-building role in the climate-risk ecosystem. However, despite prominent success stories, we find a substantial gap between principles and practice: only four percent of the most-cited peer-reviewed climate-risk studies in recent years fully share their data and code despite this being a widely accepted minimum standard for transparency. We highlight low-cost measures that non-commercial researchers can take now to improve transparency and reusability. We also emphasize that transformative progress requires substantial investment, cross-sector collaboration, and careful consideration of tradeoffs, data rights, and multiple perspectives on equity. We hope this perspective accelerates both immediate actions and longer-term conversations to improve the ability of science to effectively support timely, evidence-based, and sound climate-risk management.

Open Science↗
DOE OSTI2025

Building Inclusive Educational and Career Pathways in Fusion Energy

This paper was written in preparation for the Workforce Accelerator for Fusion Energy Development conference, which was funded by the National Science Foundation. Prior to the conference, participants from academia, government, industry, national laboratories, and nonprofit organizations worked together to write White papers. Held in Hampton, Virginia, in May 2024, the conference convened participants to discuss various topics in support of workforce development in fusion energy. As the fusion industry expands, efforts to recruit and retain a diverse workforce, ensure equitable access to fusion education, and gain public support will be critical to meeting workforce needs in this field. We outline strategic recommendations across three vital areas: improving diversity data collection; supporting career advancement and retention with a diversity, equity, inclusion, accessibility, and belonging focus; and strengthening community engagement and education in fusion energy.

Cote, Laleh [Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory↗
DOE OSTI2023

Non-parametric projections of the net-income distribution for all U.S. states for the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

Abstract Income distributions are a growing area of interest in the examination of equity impacts brought on by climate change and its responses. Such impacts are especially important at subnational levels, but projections of income distributions at these levels are scarce. Here, we project U.S. state-level income distributions for the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). We apply a non-parametric approach, specifically a recently developed principal components algorithm to generate net income distributions for deciles across 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia. We produce these projections to 2100 for three SSP scenarios in combination with varying projections of GDP per capita to represent a wide range of possible futures and uncertainties. In the generation of these scenarios, we also generated tax adjusted historical deciles by U.S. states, which we used for validating model performance. Our method thus produces income distributions by decile for each state, reflecting the variability in state income, population, and tax regimes. Our net income projections by decile can be used in both emissions- and impact-related research to understand distributional effects at various income levels and identify economically vulnerable populations.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Synthesizing land use and demographic change in Southeast Asia’s smaller urbanized areas from 2000–2015

The majority of the human population now reside in urban areas today. The United Nations estimates that nearly half of all urban dwellers currently live in cities smaller than 500 000 persons and the majority of future urban growth will take place in Asia and Africa, likely in these smaller urban areas, not mega cities. Thus, understanding the factors that influence urban demographic trajectories in small urban areas is critical to address sustainable and equitable policy initiatives related to food security, changing climate hazard exposure, and economic opportunities. Here we focus on Southeast Asia—a region historically characterized by lower urban population proportions, yet with a rapidly shifting dynamic demographic—to examine correlates of demographic change among smaller cities. We combine two open-source satellite-informed datasets: GHS urban center database (2015) and age-sex gridded data from WorldPop to calculate socio-demographic characteristics to model drivers of change in annualized urban population growth from 2000–2015 for 505 urbanized places. We find a general pattern of decreasing dependency ratios as city-size increases for most urban areas in Southeast Asia. Higher rates of growth and more variation is observed for smaller cities—those with fewer than 300 000 persons, the lowest population limit for UN data on urbanization. When examining covariates of urban population growth, we find significant statistical associations of population change in smaller urbanized areas with climatic, economic, and land cover/land use variables, but with country-specific variations. Characterizing a continuum of urban population development in the context of changing environmental, economic and climate conditions has been an important sustainable development and equity issue for decades, but newer analysis of city-level drivers allows for systematic inquiry thus moving beyond total population counts for policy-relevant insight.

Southeast Asia synthesis↗