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In this video there are scenes of damage from the Northridge Earthquake and interviews with Dr. Andrea Donnelan, Geophysics at JPL, and Dr. Jim Dolan, earthquake geologist from Cal. Tech. The interviews discuss earthquake forecasting by tracking changes in the earth's crust using antenna receiving signals from a series of satellites called the Global Positioning System (GPS).
We analyze the cycle of great earthquakes along the San Andreas fault with a finite element numerical model of deformation in a crust with a nonlinear viscoelastic rheology. The viscous component of deformation has an effective viscosity that depends exponentially on the inverse absolute temperature and nonlinearity on the shear stress; the elastic deformation is linear. Crustal thickness and temperature are constrained by seismic and heat flow data for California. The models are for anti plane strain in a 25-km-thick crustal layer having a very long, vertical strike-slip fault; the crustal block extends 250 km to either side of the fault. During the earthquake cycle that lasts 160 years, a constant plate velocity v(sub p)/2 = 17.5 mm yr is applied to the base of the crust and to the vertical end of the crustal block 250 km away from the fault. The upper half of the fault is locked during the interseismic period, while its lower half slips at the constant plate velocity. The locked part of the fault is moved abruptly 2.8 m every 160 years to simulate great earthquakes. The results are sensitive to crustal rheology. Models with quartzite-like rheology display profound transient stages in the velocity, displacement, and stress fields. The predicted transient zone extends about 3-4 times the crustal thickness on each side of the fault, significantly wider than the zone of deformation in elastic models. Models with diabase-like rheology behave similarly to elastic models and exhibit no transient stages. The model predictions are compared with geodetic observations of fault-parallel velocities in northern and central California and local rates of shear strain along the San Andreas fault. The observations are best fit by models which are 10-100 times less viscous than a quartzite-like rheology. Since the lower crust in California is composed of intermediate to mafic rocks, the present result suggests that the in situ viscosity of the crustal rock is orders of magnitude less the rock viscosity determined in the laboratory.
Using Global Positioning System (GPS) receivers, we reoccupied several leveling benchmarks on the Kenai Peninsula of Alaska which had been surveyed by conventional leveling immediately following the March 27, 1964, Prince William Sound earthquake (M(sub w) = 9.3). By combining the two sets of measurements with a new, high-resolution model of the geoid in the region, we were able to determine the cumulative 1993-1964 postseismic vertical displacement. We find uplift at all of our benchmarks, relative to Seward, Alaska, a point that is stable according to tide gauge data. The maximum uplift of about 1 m occurs near the middle of the peninsula. The region of maximum uplift appears to be shifted northwest relative to the point of maximum coseismic subsidence. If we use tide gauge data at Nikishka and Seward to constrain the vertical motion, then the observed uplift has a trenchward tilt (down to the southeast) as well as an arching component. To explain the observations, we use creep-at-depth models. Most acceptable models require a fault slip of about 2.75 m, although this result is not unique. If the slip has been continuous since the 1964 earthquake, then the average slip rate is nearly 100 mm/yr, twice the plate convergence rate. Comparing the net uplift achieved in 29 years with that observed over 11 years in an adjacent region southeast of Anchorage, Alaska, we conclude that the rate of uplift is decreasing. A further decrease in the uplift rate is expected as the 29-year averaged displacement rate is about twice the plate convergence rate and therefore cannot be sustained over the entire earthquake cycle.
Because most large-magnitude earthquakes along reverse faults have such irregular and complicated rupture patterns, reverse-fault segments defined on the basis of geometry alone may not be very useful for estimating sizes of future seismic sources. Most modern large ruptures of historical earthquakes generated by intracontinental reverse faults have involved geometrically complex rupture patterns. Ruptures across surficial discontinuities and complexities such as stepovers and cross-faults are common. Specifically, segment boundaries defined on the basis of discontinuities in surficial fault traces, pronounced changes in the geomorphology along strike, or the intersection of active faults commonly have not proven to be major impediments to rupture. Assuming that the seismic rupture will initiate and terminate at adjacent major geometric irregularities will commonly lead to underestimation of magnitudes of future large earthquakes.
The static displacement field generated by an earthquake has the effect of rearranging the Earth's mass distribution and will consequently cause the Earth's rotation and gravitational field to change. Although the coseismic effect of earthquakes on the Earth's rotation and gravitational field have been modeled in the past, no unambiguous observations of this effect have yet been made. However, the Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite, which is scheduled to be launched in 2001, will measure time variations of the Earth's gravitational field to high degree and order with unprecedented accuracy. In this presentation, the modeled coseismic effect of earthquakes upon the Earth's gravitational field to degree and order 100 will be computed and compared to the expected accuracy of the GRACE measurements. In addition, the modeled second degree changes, corresponding to changes in the Earth's rotation, will be compared to length-of-day and polar motion excitation observations.
Interactions between the Earth and the atmosphere during major earthquakes (M greater than 5) are the subject of this investigation. Recently a mechanism has been proposed predicting the build-up of positive ground potentials prior to strong earthquake activity. Connected phenomena include: transient conductivity of rocks, injection of currents, possibly also electromagnetic emission and light emission from high points at the surface of the Earth. To understand this process we analyze vertical atmospheric profiles, land surface and brightness (temperature) data, using the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) onboard NASA's Terra satellite launched in December 1999. MODIS covers the entire Earth every 1-2 days in 36 wavelength bands (20 visible and 16 infrared) at different spatial resolutions (250 m, 500 m, and 1 km). Using MODIS data we look for correlations between the atmospheric dynamics and solid Earth processes for the January 2001 strong earthquakes in San Salvador and India. As part of the build-up of positive grounds potential, an IR luminescence is predicted to occur in the 8-12 micrometer band. We use the MODIS data to differentiate between true "thermal" signals and IR luminescence. Indeed, on the basis of a temporal and spatial distribution analysis, a thermal anomaly pattern is found that appears to be related to the seismic activity. Aerosol content and atmospheric instability parameters also change when ground charges build up causing ion emission and leading to a thin aerosol layer over land. We analyze the aerosol content, atmospheric pressure, moisture profile and lifted index. Anomalous trends have been identified in few days prior to the main shocks. The significance of this observation should be explored further using other data sets.
Interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) data over the area of the Hector Mine earthquake (Mw 7.1, 16 October 1999) reveal postseismic deformation of several centimeters over a spatial scale of 0.5 to 50 km. We analyzed seven SAR acquisitions to form interferograms over four time periods after the event. The main deformations seen in the line-of-sight (LOS) displacement maps are a region of subsidence (60 mm LOS increase) on the northern end of the fault, a region of uplift (45 mm LOS decrease) located to the northeast of the primary fault bend, and a linear trough running along the main rupture having a depth of up to 15 mm and a width of about 2 km. We correlate these features with a double left-bending, rightlateral, strike-slip fault that exhibits contraction on the restraining side and extension along the releasing side of the fault bends. The temporal variations in the near-fault postseismic deformation are consistent with a characteristic time scale of 135 + 42 or - 25 days, which is similar to the relaxation times following the 1992 Landers earthquake. High gradients in the LOS displacements occur on the fault trace, consistent with afterslip on the earthquake rupture. We derive an afterslip model by inverting the LOS data from both the ascending and descending orbits. Our model indicates that much of the afterslip occurs at depths of less than 3 to 4 km.
Searching for electromagnetic (EM) phenomena originating in the Earth's crust prior to major earthquakes (M>5) are the object of this exploratory study. We present the idea of a possible relationship between: (1) electro-chemical and thermodynamic processes in the Earth's crust and (2) ionic enhancement of the atmosphere/ionosphere with tectonic stress and earthquake activity. The major source of these signals are proposed to originate from electromagnetic phenomenon which are responsible for these observed pre-seismic processes, such as, enhanced IR emission, also born as thermal anomalies, generation of long wave radiation, light emission caused by ground-to-air electric discharges, Total Electron Content (TEC) ionospheric anomalies and ionospheric plasma variations. The source of these data will include: (i) ionospheric plasma perturbations data from the recently launched DEMETER mission and currently available TEC/GPS network data; (ii) geomagnetic data from ORSTED and CHAMP; (iii) Thermal infra-red (TIR) transients mapped by the polar orbiting (NOAA/AVHRR, MODIS) and (iv) geosynchronous weather satellites measurements of GOES, METEOSAT. This approach requires continues observations and data collecting, in addition to both ground and space based monitoring over selected regions in order to investigate the various techniques for recording possible anomalies. During the space campaign emphasis will be on IR emission, obtained from TIR (thermal infrared) satellites, that records land/sea surface temperature anomalies and changes in the plasma and total electron content (TEC) of the ionosphere that occur over areas of potential earthquake activity.
Advances in understanding of the earthquake cycle and in assessing earthquake hazards is a topic of great importance. Dynamic earthquake hazard assessments resolved for a range of spatial scales and time scales will allow a more systematic approach to prioritizing the retrofitting of vulnerable structures, relocating populations at risk, protecting lifelines, preparing for disasters, and educating the public.
Large earthquakes cause billions of dollars in damage and extensive loss of life and property. Geodetic and topographic imaging provide measurements of transient and long-term crustal deformation needed to monitor fault zones and understand earthquakes. Earthquake-induced strain and rupture characteristics are expressed in topographic features imprinted on the landscapes of fault zones. Small UAVs provide an efficient and flexible means to collect multi-angle imagery to reconstruct fine scale fault zone topography and provide surrogate data to determine requirements for and to simulate future platforms for air- and space-based multi-angle imaging.
The crust around the rupture zone of the 1992 Landers earthquake has continued to deform in the years following the earthquake at rates similar to 3 times greater than pre-earthquake rates.
MLCommons is an effort to develop and improve the artificial intelligence (AI) ecosystem through benchmarks, public data sets, and research. It consists of members from start-ups, leading companies, academics, and non-profits from around the world. The goal is to make machine learning better for everyone. In order to increase participation by others, educational institutions provide valuable opportunities for engagement. In this article, we identify numerous insights obtained from different viewpoints as part of efforts to utilize high-performance computing (HPC) big data systems in existing education while developing and conducting science benchmarks for earthquake prediction. As this activity was conducted across multiple educational efforts, we project if and how it is possible to make such efforts available on a wider scale. This includes the integration of sophisticated benchmarks into courses and research activities at universities, exposing the students and researchers to topics that are otherwise typically not sufficiently covered in current course curricula as we witnessed from our practical experience across multiple organizations. As such, we have outlined the many lessons we learned throughout these efforts, culminating in the need for benchmark carpentry for scientists using advanced computational resources. The article also presents the analysis of an earthquake prediction code benchmark while focusing on the accuracy of the results and not only on the runtime; notedly, this benchmark was created as a result of our lessons learned. Energy traces were produced throughout these benchmarks, which are vital to analyzing the power expenditure within HPC environments. Additionally, one of the insights is that in the short time of the project with limited student availability, the activity was only possible by utilizing a benchmark runtime pipeline while developing and using software to generate jobs from the permutation of hyperparameters automatically. It integrates a templated job management framework for executing tasks and experiments based on hyperparameters while leveraging hybrid compute resources available at different institutions. The software is part of a collection called cloudmesh with its newly developed components, cloudmesh-ee (experiment executor) and cloudmesh-cc (compute coordinator).
Abstract Seismic hazard forecasts of induced seismicity often require estimates of the maximum possible magnitude ( M max ). Empirical models suggest that maximum magnitudes, or expected number of earthquakes, are related to the volume of injected fluid. We perform a suite of 3D physics‐based earthquake simulations with rate‐ and state‐dependent friction, systematically varying the area of the pressurized region and the amplitude of the initial homogeneous or heterogeneous shear stress. Using the resulting catalog we explore the conditions that result in pressure‐controlled versus runaway ruptures that extend outside the pressurized zone. We find that proposed empirical scaling laws correctly predict M max when shear stresses are further from failure (≤90% of maximum shear stress) and for high amplitude stress fields. Runaway ruptures are observed for higher initial shear stresses and smoother stress fields. In these cases, runaway ruptures occur early after the onset of injection and rarely preceded by foreshock activity.
SUMMARY We introduce a new finite-element (FE) based computational framework to solve forward and inverse elastic deformation problems for earthquake faulting via the adjoint method. Based on two advanced computational libraries, FEniCS and hIPPYlib for the forward and inverse problems, respectively, this framework is flexible, transparent and easily extensible. We represent a fault discontinuity through a mixed FE elasticity formulation, which approximates the stress with higher order accuracy and exposes the prescribed slip explicitly in the variational form without using conventional split node and decomposition discrete approaches. This also allows the first order optimality condition, that is the vanishing of the gradient, to be expressed in continuous form, which leads to consistent discretizations of all field variables, including the slip. We show comparisons with the standard, pure displacement formulation and a model containing an in-plane mode II crack, whose slip is prescribed via the split node technique. We demonstrate the potential of this new computational framework by performing a linear coseismic slip inversion through adjoint-based optimization methods, without requiring computation of elastic Green’s functions. Specifically, we consider a penalized least squares formulation, which in a Bayesian setting—under the assumption of Gaussian noise and prior—reflects the negative log of the posterior distribution. The comparison of the inversion results with a standard, linear inverse theory approach based on Okada’s solutions shows analogous results. Preliminary uncertainties are estimated via eigenvalue analysis of the Hessian of the penalized least squares objective function. Our implementation is fully open-source and Jupyter notebooks to reproduce our results are provided. The extension to a fully Bayesian framework for detailed uncertainty quantification and non-linear inversions, including for heterogeneous media earthquake problems, will be analysed in a forthcoming paper.
Computational simulations have become central to the seismic analysis and design of major infrastructure over the past several decades. Most major structures are now “proof tested” virtually through representative simulations of earthquake-induced response. More recently, with the advancement of high-performance computing (HPC) platforms and the associated massively parallel computational ecosystems, simulation is beginning to play a role in increased understanding and prediction of ground motions for earthquake hazard assessments. However, the computational requirements for regional-scale geophysics-based ground motion simulations are extreme, which has restricted the frequency resolution of direct simulations and limited the ability to perform the large number of simulations required to numerically explore the problem parametric space. In this article, recent developments toward an integrated, multidisciplinary earth science-engineering computational framework for the regional-scale simulation of both ground motions and resulting structural response are described with a particular emphasis on advancing simulations to frequencies relevant to engineered systems. This multidisciplinary computational development is being carried out as part of the US Department of Energy (DOE) Exascale Computing Project with the goal of achieving a computational framework poised to exploit emerging DOE exaflop computer platforms scheduled for the 2022–2023 timeframe.
Earthquake-induced ground shaking near rupturing faults is highly sensitive to the rupture characteristics, seismic wave propagation patterns and site conditions, and field recordings of near-fault shaking are relatively sparse. These challenges complicate the assessment of the seismic performance of near-fault structures. A common approach to representing near-fault ground motion in engineering analysis is to explicitly consider and select records with strong directivity pulses (pulse records). We use three-dimensional high-resolution physics-based earthquake simulations to test this approach in the context of scenario-based ground motion record selection, and to study the important characteristics of near-fault ground shaking. We highlight the deficiencies associated with classifying near-fault simulated records as “pulse” or “non-pulse,” based on the presence of a single dominating pulse in the velocity time history. We show that this approach is inadequate for characterizing near-fault shaking on soft soils which can be dominated by both forward rupture directivity and basin amplification effects. We conduct ground motion selection experiments for the analysis of near-fault structures with and without explicit classification of the pulse features in the records, and evaluate the bias in the predicted structural demands. We find that the maximum interstory drift demands on building structures imposed by unscaled site-specific simulated ground motion records selected based on relevant spectral shape features are not sensitive to the classification of records as pulse/non-pulse. Therefore, with regard to predicting the maximum interstory drifts in near-fault buildings, we do not find justification for the binary pulse classification of near-fault records.
The Rock Valley Direct Comparison (RV/DC) is the third phase of the Source Physics Experiment (SPE; Snelson et al., 2014), a project aimed at improving seismic discrimination between explosive sources and natural earthquakes. Phases I and II of SPE focused on studying the generation of shear waves in endmember geologies (granite and alluvium, respectively), while Phase III aims to detonate a chemical explosion co-located with the source region of the 1993 Rock Valley earthquake sequence, located in the Rock Valley Fault Zone (RVFZ), in the southern portion of the Nevada Test Site (now the Nevada National Security Site, or NNSS).
Response of magnetic instruments to earthquake waves - effects of Alaskan earthquake of 1964 - piezomagnetic oscillations in magnetic rock or induced currents in enhanced conductivity area